A look at Brandon Phillips' place in Reds (and MLB) history

Brandon Phillips is no longer a Red.  I remember meeting him at the 2007 Winter Caravan in Louisville and telling him I hoped he'd stay around a long time.  And he did - ten full seasons after that conversation.  There were a few ups and a lot of downs for the team as a whole, but no one can say that BP didn't have a significant (and even historical) impact at second base in Cincinnati.  Second only to Joe Morgan in the modern era*, no matter how you slice it.

* - I'm basically excluding the 1800s Reds defensive specialist, and Hall of Famer, Bid McPhee

Let's look at some of Dat Dude's statistics - admittedly, some of them are purely based on his longevity with the team, but that is still worth celebrating.  

OFFENSE

GAMES PLAYED AS A RED:
1) Rose - 2722
2) Concepcion - 2488
3) Larkin - 2180
4) Bench - 2158
5) McPhee - 2135
6) Perez - 1948
7) Phillips - 1614

HITS - Phillips is 9th with 1774

DOUBLES - Phillips is 8th with 311

HOME RUNS - Phillips is 12th with 191

RUNS BATTED IN - Phillips is 10th with 851

STOLEN BASES - Phillips is 14th with 194

WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT - Phillips is tied for 15th with 30.5 (Eric Davis also accrued 30.5)


And here are some (appropriately) random statistical notes about his best offensive seasons:

1) There have been only seven 20 HR / 20 SB seasons by Reds second basemen.  Joe Morgan had 4 of them, and Phillips had the other 3.  And even more impressively...

2) Phillips had the ONLY 30/30 year by a Reds second baseman (2007).  In MLB history, he is the only 2B not named Alfonso Soriano or Ian Kinsler to accomplish it.  So, he's the only NL second baseman ever with a 30/30 year.

3) And only two other Reds at ANY position have ever gone 30/30.  Eric Davis in 1987 and Barry Larkin in 1996.

4) It's rare in baseball as a whole, too.  Only 60 seasons of 30/30 in all of MLB history.  Amazingly, the Bonds family owns 10 of them - Bobby and Barry each with five.

DEFENSE

Of course, BP was best known as a flashy defender, and won four Gold Gloves (2008, 2010, 2011, 2013).  Only Johnny Bench (10 straight) and Joe Morgan (5 straight) won more of those awards in a Cincinnati uniform.

Brandon put together quite the highlight reel on defense, saving the day with diving stops and behind-the-back flips on a regular basis.  There may have been a few times when the flash wasn't totally necessary, but he entertained the crowd and that's what sports are for, after all.

And his fielding percentage was remarkable.  7 seasons of .990 or higher, including two seasons of .996!  Wow.  The only 2B in Reds history with a comparable defensive peak was Bret Boone ('95 through '97), but that didn't last nearly as long.  If it weren't for his early struggles (before 2007, when he really clicked both offensively and defensively), his career numbers would be truly insane.  

As it is, his lifetime fielding percentage of .988 at second base is higher than ALL BUT ONE of the 2Bs in Cooperstown:

Ryne Sandberg - .989
(Brandon Phillips)
Craig Biggio - .984
Roberto Alomar - .984
Nellie Fox - .984
Jackie Robinson - .983
Bill Mazeroski - .983
Red Schoendienst - .983
Joe Morgan - .981
Bobby Doerr - .980
Paul Molitor - .979
Charlie Gehringer - .976
Frankie Frisch - .974
Rod Carew - .973
Eddie Collins - .970
Joe Gordon - .970
Tony Lazzeri - .967
Billy Herman - .967
Rogers Hornsby - .965
Nap Lajoie - .963
Johnny Evers - .955
Bid McPhee - .944 (to be fair, he didn't use a glove)

You might criticize this comparison in a couple ways:

1) Errors are subjective from scorer to scorer, and the typical assessment has also changed over time.

2) There are more advanced metrics now, which account for range.

But I'd respond this way:

1) Mistakes are still mistakes, and Brandon almost never made them.  Being second only to Sandberg means he was doing something right.

2) His career range factor was slightly above league average, not below...so if he reached a better-than-average number of balls AND so rarely made errors, his defense is worthy of your respect.

Among current second basemen, there are only a few who measure up to BP in terms of fielding percentage:

Dustin Pedroia - .991
Robinson Cano - .988
Jose Altuve - .988


Baseball-reference.com's dWAR stat doesn't rate Brandon Phillips as "all-world" by any stretch, but he accumulated 8.5 dWAR during his time with the Reds, which is solid.  It's worth noting that his defensive value was a combined 7.3 dWAR from 2007 through 2012, and then he had a predictable fall-off after age 32.  

Age was certainly a factor in the trade, as there have been only 11 seasons in MLB history of 5+ WAR by a second baseman who was 35 or older.  Most of them happened before 1930.  In other words, it's no slap in his face to say that a 2B is past his prime.  Middle infield isn't a place where players age gracefully.

But let's not end this on such a depressing note!  Let's instead remember BP for these three awesome things:

1) Amazing defense - in his prime (roughly age 27-33), right up there with the best of the best of the best of all time

2) His sense of humor and interacting with the fans

3) Standing up to the "WLB's."  I still feel that Brandon helped set the aggressive tone the Reds needed to finally break through in the division. 

The end of the Bruce / Phillips / Votto era

I'm 32 years old.  I started watching baseball in 1990, precisely when the Reds last won it all.  I heard about the Big Red Machine from my dad, and have since studied and watched them extensively.

The last 26 years have been frustrating.  But even when the team isn't making the playoffs, it's natural for a die-hard fan to get attached to individual Reds.  With rumors swirling about a trade of Jay Bruce, let's take a step back to appreciate the stability, productivity and longevity of this recent core group of players.  

Bruce, Phillips and Votto have been the primary starters at their respective positions for 8 consecutive seasons (2009-2016).  Only Machine-era combinations of 3+ players met or exceeded that.

Bench / Perez / Rose - 9 seasons (1968-1976)

Bench / Concepcion / Rose - 9 seasons (1970-1978)
Bruce / Phillips / Votto - 8 seasons (2009-2016)

Bench / Concepcion / Morgan - 8 seasons (1972-1979)

Bench / Concepcion / Perez / Rose - 7 seasons (1970-1976)
Helms / May / Perez / Rose - 6 seasons (1966-1971)
Cardenas / Pinson / Rose - 6 seasons (1963-1968)
Bell / McMillan / Temple - 6 seasons (1953-1958)
Groh / Roush / Wingo - 6 seasons (1916-1921)

All three have been extremely productive during their time as well.  There is no doubt that they will all end up in the Reds Hall of Fame.

Here are their rankings in some key stats...

Games played:
1) Rose - 2722
7) Phillips - 1566
20) Bruce - 1220
22) Votto - 1209

Hits:
1) Rose - 3358
9) Phillips - 1711
15) Votto - 1321
27) Bruce - 1116

HR:
1) Bench - 389
7) Bruce - 233
8) Votto - 210
12) Phillips - 186

RBI: 
1) Bench - 1376
10) Phillips - 824
15) Bruce - 718
17) Votto - 685

WAR (position players)
1) Rose - 77.7
8) Votto - 45.2
18) Phillips - 29.3
30) Bruce - 16.5


A number of things worked against this group.  While they had a solid pitching staff from 2010 through 2012, there were always weak links in the lineup, or mishaps along the way.  Most Reds fans believe we could've taken a championship in 2012, if not for Cueto's injury in Game 1 of the NLDS.  It certainly would have been interesting.  

While the postseason results have been disappointing, we've still had the opportunity to watch one of the most productive cores of position players in Reds history.  Let's appreciate that.

The story behind BP's production is more than just opportunity

Many would assert, with some degree of truth, that Brandon Phillips leads the National League in RBI (with 42 entering play on Sunday 5/26) because of increased opportunities.  Votto and Choo have done such an incredible job getting on base (ranking 1st and 3rd in all of MLB for that category so far), that Brandon has had a wealth of chances.

Most runners on base for 2013 National League batters:
1) Brandon Phillips - 170
2) Jay Bruce - 159
3) Hunter Pence - 150
4) Yonder Alonso - 145
5) Zack Cozart - 141

This list tells a couple different stories.  First off, the Reds' offense has been generating a ton of opportunities.  To have 3 of the top 5 in this category is pretty absurd.  However, production is much more than opportunity...because as we all know, the three Reds on this list have had very different levels of success when they've batted with runners on.

Among the 125 batters in MLB who have had at least 100 runners on this season, Brandon ranks 13th in percentage of those runners driven in (20%).  Bruce rates a respectable 15.72%, good for 57th on the list.  Cozart is near the bottom - 109th at only 10.64% of runners driven in.  If you haven't considered this particular statistic before, I would summarize it as follows:

< 9% = terrible
9-11% = poor
12-14% = mediocre
15-17% = good
18-20% = excellent
>20% = outstanding

For his career, Phillips has been a good (but usually not great) producer with runners on.  Here are the percentages, rounded off to the nearest whole numbers:

2006 - 15%
2007 - 14%
2008 - 15%
2009 - 17%
2010 - 12%
2011 - 16%
2012 - 15%
2013 - 20%

Two years stand out - 2013 for success, and 2010 for lack thereof.  The biggest thing that can help you succeed in these situations is extra-base hits.  According to Fangraphs numbers, BP's 2010 isolated slugging percentage was only .155 (third-worst of his Reds career), while he's at .189 this season (second-best).  

At his current pace, Brandon would accumulate 40 doubles (a career high) and 26 homers (second only to his breakout 2007 season).  

Will he sustain this production level?  Maybe not.  But his improved approach and skill at the plate will certainly give him a good chance.  A number of his XBH this season have punctuated lengthy at-bats where he fouled off pitches until he got one to deliver into the gap (or the seats). While his overall pitches seen per plate appearance stat (about 3.7) has not changed this year, he makes the adjustments necessary in big situations, and quite visibly relishes the role of dependable RBI man.

Here's hoping that Brandon keeps it going, because he's on pace for some history.  Only Joe Morgan has ever driven in 100 runs in a season as a Reds second baseman, and he did it just once, with 111 in 1976.  BP is on pace for 138 RBI - that would be the 5th highest single-season total ever by any second baseman in major league baseball.

Statistics from baseballmusings.com, fangraphs.com, mlb.com and espn.com

Choo changing the entire Reds offense

In 2012, the Cincinnati Reds offense struggled in one very major way.  Only Votto (.474), Hanigan (.365) and Ludwick (.346) got on base consistently.  Here were their OBP ranks by position in MLB:

C - .333 (10th)
1B - .423 (1st)
2B - .306 (22nd)
3B - .304 (23rd)
SS - .284 (25th)
LF - .339 (10th)
CF - .282 (30th)
RF - .320 (21st)
 
Note: Reds pitchers were also above average with a .176 OBP (9th in MLB) but the 9th spot in the order isn't something you rely on for production on a game-to-game basis.

And here are their rankings through 40 games in 2013:

C - .290 (21st)
1B - .455 (1st) - leading all other teams by 37 points
2B - .333 (11th)
3B - .314 (19th)
SS - .250 (28th)
LF - .302 (21st)
CF - .468 (1st) - leading all other teams by 73 points
RF - .303 (19th)

As you can see, the only huge change was in CF.  Votto's OBP is actually lower this year than last, but the team number for first base has improved as a result of him having 100% of the playing time so far this year.  

Choo is almost single-handedly responsible for the team OBP jumping from an abysmal .315 last year (22nd in the league) to .335 in 2013, which now ranks third in baseball.  Even with Cozart's weak bat behind him, Choo is tied for the MLB lead in runs scored (33).  Just imagine the numbers he might be putting up with Ludwick healthy and BP back in the 2-hole...

Reds win one of the most dominating playoff games in franchise history

By the numbers...

Reds win 9-0 shutout
- only the 12th MLB playoff shutout victory by 9 runs or more
- the largest Reds playoff shutout (previous record was 7-0 in 1990 WS game 1)
- only the 55th MLB playoff team pitching game allowing 2 or fewer hits, and the 4th by the Reds
- tied for the largest Reds playoff game winning margin (with 10-1 win in 1995 NLDS game 3)
- the 7th shutout in Reds playoff history, first since 7-0 in 1990 WS game 1
- only the 4th time the Reds have scored 9+ runs in a playoff game

Bronson Arroyo sparkles like a teen vampire
- the first 7+ inning game, allowing 1 or fewer hits, by a Reds pitcher in team playoff history
- only the 6th MLB playoff starting pitching performance of 7+ innings and 1 hit or fewer, 1 walk or fewer
- only the 14th Reds playoff starting pitching game score of 70 or higher

Brandon Phillips and Co. make individual offensive history for a Reds playoff game
- DatDudeBP is now tied for 19th in Reds playoff hits (9) and RBI (5) 
- Ryan Hanigan got his first three career playoff RBI, and Drew Stubbs got his first career playoff RBI
- Ryan Hanigan was only the 17th Reds player ever with 3+ RBI in a playoff game
- Scott Rolen had his 12th career playoff RBI, but first with the Reds

The Reds are now 8-1 all-time in playoff games on the west coast.

Most importantly, they're coming home with a 2-0 lead in the NLDS.

Phillips, Arroyo in all the major Reds all-time top 25 lists

Even including players from the 19th century, the names "Brandon Phillips" and "Bronson Arroyo" appear high on the lists for virtually all the main cumulative stats among Reds hitters and pitchers, respectively.

Close behind them, and sure to eventually overtake them in a lot of categories: Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto.

Here are all the major cumulative rankings for active players among all-time Reds hitters and pitchers:

Home Runs (all-time leader: Bench)
16th - Phillips
17th - Bruce
T-18th - Votto

Hits (all-time leader: Rose)
T-21st - Phillips
47th - Votto

Doubles (all-time leader: Rose)
20th - Phillips
23rd - Votto

RBI (all-time leader: Bench)
25th - Phillips
32nd - Votto
49th - Bruce

Stolen bases (all-time leader: McPhee)
25th - Phillips
42nd - Stubbs

Games started (all-time leader: Rixey)
12th - Arroyo
33rd - Cueto
47th - Bailey

Innings pitched (all-time leader: Rixey)
24th - Arroyo
47th - Cueto

Wins (all-time leader: Rixey)
T-22nd - Arroyo
T-39th - Cueto

Strikeouts (all-time leader: Maloney)
12th - Arroyo
22nd - Cueto
36th - Bailey

Cincinnati Reds: August 2012 Summary

The Reds went 19-11 in August, which was their second-best mark of 2012 (behind the 19-7 record in July).  They now sit at 81-52, with the most wins in all of baseball and only a slightly worse winning percentage than the Washington Nationals.  Because both Pittsburgh and St. Louis struggled a bit, they both fell farther behind in the NL Central.  The Reds' lead over Pittsburgh expanded from 3 to 10 games, and their lead over St. Louis from 7 to 9.5 games.
Cincinnati played 8 complete series in August, winning 5 (one sweep at Arizona), losing 2 (one sweep at Milwaukee) and splitting 1 (at Philadelphia).  At the start of the month, they also finished off a winning series at home against San Diego with two wins.  At the end of the month, they won the first game of a series in Houston.

**The Reds already have six different winning streaks of 5+ games this season, and could make it seven with a win on September 1st**

Home record: 10-5 (4-1 to finish their first stand, 5-2 in the second, then lost a series against St. Louis)
Road record: 9-6 (3-4 in the Milwaukee/Chicago trip, 2-2 in Philly, 4-0 so far in Arizona/Houston)

vs East: 4-3
vs Central: 10-8 (a little disappointing)
vs West: 5-0

Overall offensive trends: The offense continued its successful summer, in fact posting its best batting average of the year (.272) in spite of missing Votto for the entire month.  Ludwick, Rolen and Frazier continues to star.  Bruce stepped up after a mediocre July.  Heisey has emerged as a possible hope in CF after Stubbs returned to poor form after his deceiving pre-deadline surge.  The team also slugged an impressive 38 HR in 30 games, with Ludwick and Bruce providing 7 each.


Overall pitching trends: The staff actually had its worst month of the year as a whole, but the numbers were still fairly good, which goes to show how much improvement the organization has had since recent years.  Both the starters (3.96 ERA) and relievers (3.31 ERA) had their worst marks.  There were still some impressive individual performances, and they closed out the month with four straight solid outings on the road.

Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from July (20 or more OPS+ points): Cairo +65, Hanigan +55, Bruce +50, Cozart +44, Frazier +30

DOWN significantly from July (20 or more OPS+ points): Paul -163, Mesoraco -96, Valdez -81, Stubbs -67, Ludwick -22

No significant change: Rolen, Heisey, Phillips (all had good months)....Votto (still injured)

New arrivals: Dioner Navarro had only 6 hits but two were key homers.




Individual pitching trends:

UP significantly from July: Latos, Simon, Leake, Arredondo

DOWN significantly from July: LeCure, Marshall, Bailey, Arroyo (only in terms of ERA), Ondrusek

No significant change: Chapman (still dominant), Cueto (still dominant)




New arrivals: Hoover was awesome in his return, trade acquisition Broxton has been pretty solid overall, and Redmond was shaky in his fill-in start


And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of August...

RANDY HITTER: Todd Frazier.  The clear favorite for NL Rookie of the Year went .330/.393/.587 with 6 HR, 8 doubles and a team-leading 25 RBI.

Honorable mention: Ryan Ludwick, Jay Bruce

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Ryan Hanigan.  A guy with only 19 RBI on the year had 7 in August, including some very key hits (one of them a walk-off).

RANDY STARTER: Johnny Cueto.  Our ace was awesome again...4-1, 2.76, 0.85 WHIP.  38 K and only 7 walks.

Honorable mention: Mat Latos had a 2.61 ERA and insufficient run support.  Bronson Arroyo had 5 wins.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Mike Leake.

RANDY RELIEVER: Aroldis Chapman, again.  After a spotless July, allowed only one run in August.  0.68 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 18 K and 2 walks in 13 IP.  11 for 11 in save opportunities.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Jose Arredondo.  After a poor July, posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in August to return to form.

RANDY NOOB: Dioner Navarro.  Two key and unexpected homers.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Brandon Phillips.  He hates the WLBs, and he gave a hell of a performance on August 25th in helping the Reds win at least one game of the home St. Louis series.  BP went 3 for 5 with a homer and 2 important RBI in an 8-2 win.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Mike Leake.  When people looked at the Leake/Dickey matchup on August 15th, they probably didn't expect Leake to dominate it.  But he did.  In that 6-1 win, he tossed a complete game, allowing only 1 run and 4 hits.  Leake struck out 4 and didn't walk a batter.  Meanwhile, the Reds offense went yard multiple times off the knuckleballer in his support.

Reds' Offensive Leaders Without Votto

The Reds are 16-4 since MVP Joey Votto went down with a torn meniscus.  A lot of the thanks has to go to the pitching staff, which was dominant during the first 13 games in his absence.  Yet, perhaps surprisingly, they've only posted 9 quality starts in the 20 games overall.  So the bullpen, without question, deserves a lot of credit as well.  

But let's not forget that a number of position players have really stepped up to fill the offensive void.  Here are the leaders in the past 20 games (July 16th through August 5th):

Runs:
1) Stubbs - 22
2) Bruce, Cozart, Phillips - 11

Hits:
1) Stubbs - 24
2) Ludwick - 21
3) Phillips - 19

Doubles:
1) Ludwick - 6
2) Bruce, Phillips - 5
3) Hanigan - 4

Triples:
1) Rolen - 2
2) Cozart, Heisey - 1

Home Runs:
1) Ludwick - 6
2) Stubbs - 5
3) Bruce, Phillips, Frazier - 3

RBI:
1) Ludwick - 21
2) Stubbs - 15
3) Phillips - 13

BB:
1) Bruce - 13
2) Rolen - 10
3) Stubbs - 9

Stolen bases:
1) Stubbs - 7
2) Bruce - 2

Batting average:
1) Ludwick, Paul - .350
3) Phillips - .339
4) Stubbs - .338
5) Rolen - .333

OPS:
1) Ludwick - 1.159
2) Stubbs - .999
3) Rolen - .986
4) Phillips - .956
5) Bruce - .871

Conclusions:
- Ludwick is definitely the Votto-less MVP
- Stubbs is the most improved player during this span, becoming the guy we all want him to be
- Phillips was putting up awesome numbers so it's too bad that he went down as well, just a few days ago
- Paul was a great shot in the arm, especially in pinch-hitting roles
- Rolen had seemed a lost offensive cause in the first half, but he has been a huge boost too
- Frazier has actually been somewhat less productive during this span, yet his overall numbers are still superb for a rookie, putting him in solid ROY contention

Reds All-Time Offensive Leaders in Interleague Play

Since interleague play began in 1997 the Cincinnati Reds have, without question, been a team in flux.  They've made only one playoff appearance (in 2010) and the lineup, aside from a few mainstays, has shifted on an almost annual basis.


For example, the cutoff I used in comparing rate stats for this post was 55 interleague games - which is not even equivalent to four full seasons of such contests.  Even so, only 10 players made the mark.

Active players underlined.  All statistics through June 21st, 2012 - so they exclude the Reds/Twins series.


Most games:
1) Griffey - 115
2) Phillips - 106
3) Dunn - 98
4) Casey - 93
5) Larkin - 71
6) Bruce - 70
7) Votto - 67
8) Reese - 66
9) LaRue - 61
10) A. Boone - 55


Most hits: 
1) Phillips - 132
2) Griffey - 105
3) Casey - 94
4) Dunn - 87
5) Larkin - 82


Most doubles:
1) Tie - Larkin, Votto and Phillips - 18
4) Casey - 17
5) Tie - Dunn and Bruce - 16


Most triples:
1) Larkin - 4
2) Numerous others tied with 1


Most home runs:
1) Griffey - 32
2) Dunn - 28
3) Votto - 18
4) Phillips - 17


Most RBIs:
1) Griffey - 71
2) Phillips - 62
3) Dunn - 56
4) Votto - 49
5) Casey - 43


Most walks:
1) Dunn - 59
2) Griffey - 43
3) Larkin - 39
4) Votto - 38
5) Casey - 30


Most strikeouts:
1) Dunn - 125
2) Griffey - 102
3) Bruce - 72


Most stolen bases:
1) Phillips - 20
2) Reese - 14
3) Tie - Freel and Stubbs - 10


Best batting average:
1) Phillips - .317
2) Larkin - .314
3) Votto - .298


Best on-base percentage:
1) Larkin - .401
2) Votto - .394
3) Dunn - .361


The biggest surprises from this list, for me:


- Brandon Phillips dominated a bunch of categories.  I didn't expect him to have the best batting average or second-most RBIs.  Very impressive.


- Joey Votto with a batting average below .300 is a shocker.

A few more stats on the Reds' April Offense

Win Probability Added (a value of 1.0 means, essentially, this player has contributed one win to the team):
Best:
Votto 1.2 
Bruce: 0.6 
Cozart 0.5


Worst:
Stubbs -0.6
Harris -0.6
Rolen - 0.4

For the following two metrics, I compared the entire year of 2011 to April 2012 numbers. 


Line-drive percentage (18% is league average)


Improved significantly from 2011:
Bruce - 23 (18 last year)
Rolen - 20 (17)
Cozart - 19 (13)


Declined significantly from 2011:
Phillips - 17 (21 last year)
Stubbs - 16 (20)
Heisey - 15 (20)


The best on the team for this stat is, of course, Joey Votto, checking in at 26% for both years.


Strike-out rate (20% is league average)

Improved significantly from 2011:
Stubbs - 26 (30 last year)
Heisey - 20 (25)
Mesoraco - 8 (19)


Declined significantly from 2011:
Rolen - 20 (13)

You might be surprised to hear that Votto strikes out more than the league average, at 24%.

Review of the Reds' April Offense

The last three seasons, the Reds have finished April with strikingly similar records:
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012


As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends.  I'll keep each summary brief.  Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split).  In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.


One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair.  Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month.  A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.




BATTING ORDER: 
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.


Leadoff:


2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)




Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49


The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.




The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season.  BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.




BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:


Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010.  Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions.  We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.


The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.


Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46


Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56




Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55


SITUATIONAL TRENDS:




Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123




Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49






Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise.  We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws.  1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term.  C and 2B should be okay.  3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.

Reds' 2012 salaries vs. 2011 WAR

I wanted to look at the value the Reds can expect to get for their money this season, using Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement, and player salaries from Cot's MLB Contracts (with pro-rated bonuses, deferred money, etc. included).

If you want to see the Reds' committed cash for 2012 and beyond, see: 
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj1FG9GPVGFzrJykhM94ogw&output=html


First, I divided everyone into two groups.


Group 1 = everyone with 6+ years of service time, or with salary above $600,000
Group 2 = everyone else


I used 2011 WAR, and obviously 2012 will differ...the whole point of the exercise is to use this as a baseline and see how everything ultimately shakes out in comparison.

GROUP 1

For Group 1, the entire amount of money committed = 81.243 million dollars
For Group 1, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 30.3
Millions spent per win above replacement = 2.68

More breakdowns for Group 1
Millions per WAR, hitters only =  2.08
Millions per WAR, pitchers only = 4.04 (thanks largely to Arroyo)
Millions per WAR, returning Reds only = 2.54


Let's take a look at individual players in Group 1, ranked by millions per WAR, going from best value to worst value.  The players at the very bottom have no values assigned, because dividing by zero (or negative numbers) isn't possible (or logical).


1) Miguel Cairo - 0.53
2) Ryan Hanigan - 0.6
3) Sean Marshall - 1.11
4) Jay Bruce - 1.52
5) Joey Votto - 1.59 - will jump to around 3 million per WAR next season, assuming production is the same
6) Homer Bailey - 1.62
7) Johnny Cueto - 1.93
8) Bill Bray - 2.03
9) Brandon Phillips - 2.04 - but can he keep producing on both offense and defense like he did in 2011?

(GROUP 1 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = POOR VALUE FOR MONEY)

10) Nick Masset - 4.00 - had a bad year in 2011, hopefully bounces back
11) Ryan Madson - 5.00 - and actually worse, now that he's out
12) Aroldis Chapman - 5.83 - this number would undoubtedly improve if he started instead
13) Scott Rolen - 6.28 - a healthy year would help a great deal
14) Ryan Ludwick - 8.33 - Reds are taking a risk, hoping he can post more than 0.3 WAR

(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)

15) Wilson Valdez
16) Jose Arredondo
17) Willie Harris
18) Paul Janish
19) Bronson Arroyo - being paid 12 million


Note that the salaries of Valdez, Arredondo, Harris and Janish are all under 1 million, so at least the amount of money "wasted" (if they don't improve in 2012) would not be terribly painful.  Also note that neither Madson nor Janish is on the major league active roster.



GROUP 2

For Group 2, the entire amount of money committed = 5.49 million dollars
For Group 2, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 11.5
Millions spent per win above replacement = 0.48


Obviously, any positive contributions from this second group (which are a necessity for any team) will make the millions/WAR appear much more favorable than Group 1.  Teams still deserve some credit for picking the right guys though.

Individual players, from best value to worst value (millions per WAR):
1) Mat Latos - 0.17
2) Drew Stubbs - 0.20
3) Chris Heisey - 0.31
4) Mike Leake - 0.34
5) Alfredo Simon - 0.44


(GROUP 2 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = LESS VALUE FOR MONEY)


6) Zack Cozart - 0.69 - but with a healthy year, he'll be one of the best values on the team
7) Todd Frazier - 0.69 - we all like the guy, but very much hope he won't be needed
8) Sam LeCure - 0.98


(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)


9) Andrew Brackman
10) Jordan Smith
11) Logan Ondrusek


Note that Brackman, Frazier and Smith are not on the active major league roster.  Also keep in mind that, at such comparatively small salaries, even a modest improvement this season for guys like Ondrusek or LeCure would make them excellent proportional values.

Reds 2012 WAR: Position Players

Using Fangraphs' wonderful WAR Graphs tool, here are some charts of the careers (by age) of Cincinnati's main projected infielders, outfielders, and pitchers for 2012.

Positions 3-6 

Note: Both Cozart and Frazier were 25, with WAR of 0.7 on this graph.

My thoughts on this: We'd obviously be delighted to get the same sort of production in 2012 from the right side of our infield that we got in 2011.  It's difficult to imagine the left side doing any worse...one would have to think that either Rolen or Cozart will stay healthy and productive enough to boost their WAR.  Outside of those two possibilities, I don't have much faith in any combination of Janish/Francisco/Valdez/Frazier/Cairo/call-ups to provide big numbers.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 13.1 (all these totals according to baseball-reference, not Fangraphs)
My estimate for 2012: 15.0


Positions 7-9

My thoughts on this: The entire outfield really needs to prove itself.  Bruce is clearly the class of this group but needs more consistency.  He and Stubbs went downhill from 2010 to 2011 (Bruce mostly due to defense, Stubbs mostly due to strikeouts).  It really feels like THE year for both of them to show improvement (at least getting very close to a return to 2010 levels) or they may never be quite the players for which we hoped.  I'm fine with Ludwick as a relatively low-risk acquisition, although obviously all of us wanted a splashier solution in LF...hopefully he and Heisey can push each other to at least a modestly successful performance.  Alonso, Sappelt, Lewis and Gomes are all gone from the 2011 group.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 6.2
My estimate for 2012: 8.0


Catchers

Note: Mesoraco was 23, with WAR of -0.1 on this graph.

My thoughts on this: Ramon's offense will be missed, but Hanigan is still a good contact hitter and solid defensively, and Devin has nowhere to go but up.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 3.6
My estimate for 2012: 4.0

Total WAR estimate for position players: 27 (+4.1 from 2011)

Conclusion: As everyone knows, the Two Princes (if you want to call me baby, just go ahead now) have moved to the AL and Brauny Lad is a 'roider on suspension.  While some want to automatically crown the Reds the offensive champions of the 2012 NL Central, we still need to see more out of guys other than Votto and Phillips.  One thing I always harp on is the fact that the Reds offense is extremely opportunistic and therefore somewhat overrated.  I do feel they will lead the NL in runs scored in 2012 (they were tied for second with Colorado, 27 runs behind St. Louis). 

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds second basemen

This position is another no-brainer (like Bench at catcher), considering Joe Morgan is arguably the best 2B in MLB history. From 1972 to 1976 his numbers were surreal, especially if you look at WAR. The only debate here is which season was superior - '75 or '76?

1) Joe Morgan, 1976. NL MVP. Led the league in OPS and WAR (10.0). #1 in Reds 2B history for RBI and OPS, #2 in Reds 2B history for batting average and homers. Also won a Gold Glove.

2) Joe Morgan, 1975. NL MVP. Led the league in walks, OPS and WAR (12.0). #1 in Reds 2B history for batting average, stolen bases and walks. #2 in Reds 2B history for OPS. Also won a Gold Glove.

3) Joe Morgan, 1973. Led the league in WAR (9.9). #2 in Reds 2B history for stolen bases. #3 in Reds 2B history for HRs. #4 in Reds 2B history for OPS. Also won a Gold Glove.

The best of the rest:
4) Joe Morgan, 1974
5) Pete Rose, 1965
6) Joe Morgan, 1977
7) Brandon Phillips, 2007
8) Joe Morgan, 1972
9) Johnny Temple, 1958
10) Pete Rose, 1966

Jay Bruce's Walkoff - Not Clutch?

The funny thing about walkoff homers is they aren't always (mathematically, anyway) all that "clutch." Before I get into this discussion, two disclaimers.

1 - Jay Bruce is a great talent and (barring something unexpected) worth every bit of his contract.

2 - Bruce has had some of the most memorable moments at bat and in the field during his time in Cincinnati.

But didn't last night's home run feel a little anti-climactic? Certainly not worthy of the same level of revelry afforded to walkoffs past, let alone division-clinching walkoffs.

There are three main reasons that some (or at least I) felt this way last night.

1 (the obvious) - the Reds aren't in any kind of race, except to finish at/above .500 (which would be really nice)

2 (also obvious) - after Cordero's blown save (first since the All Star Break) it felt like the Reds should have had the game wrapped up already

3 (less obvious) - the situation was not all that dire in terms of win probability

Just a reminder...each team can have anywhere between a 0 and 1 (or 0 and 100 in percentage terms) chance of winning at any moment in the game. Because the Reds were tied and Bruce was batting in the home half of the 11th, with nobody out, and Votto already on second base, they already had an 81% chance of winning.

There were all sorts of ways for them to deal the finishing blow. While it was not an absolute guarantee (especially for the 2011 edition of the Cincinnati Reds) any fan watching was fully expecting a Reds victory after a lead-off double. All this being said, it was pretty darn exciting to defeat the hated Cubs with a bullpen-seeking missile.

I took a look at the 68 total walkoff homers in MLB during 2011. Among them, Bruce's had the third-lowest Win Probability Added (0.19). The only two lower came with the bases loaded and 1 out, meaning there was an even higher expectation of victory already (83%, so the homers resulted in 0.17 WPA).

- You may recall that Ramon Hernandez's Opening Day blast and Brandon Phillips' bomb against the Cardinals were both very clutch. In fact, they're both among the MLB top 3 for walkoff homer WPA this season, with a value of 0.91.

- This was Bruce's third career walkoff home run, and he is now the active career leader over Votto (2) and Stubbs (2)

- Tony Perez (10) has the most all-time of any Red, followed by Adam Dunn (7) and Frank Robinson (6)

Reds 2 Cubs 1: The men behind the win 9/13/11

The Reds bounced back from an ugly night in Game 1 of this Cubs series, as Mike Leake delivered another gem and was ultimately rewarded with his 12th win in his final start of 2011.

1) Leake - 8 IP, only 1 run allowed on a GIDP. The Reds still didn't give him any room for error, but luckily he avoided the no-decision he was stuck with in Chicago after LaHair's 9th-inning blast. Mike also scored the the run that proved decisive after reaching on a fielder's choice.

2) Brandon Phillips. His leadoff homer in the first inning was the only power seen all night. In the past 11 games where the Reds hit leadoff home runs, they're 9-2, with eight one-run victories. Strange coincidence.

3) Edgar Renteria. 3 for 4 with the only other RBI. One of the few guys who wasn't owned all night by Ryan Dempster.

4) Francisco Cordero recorded his 33rd save with a 1-2-3 ninth.

Red LOBster of the night: Jay Bruce. Left 7 on to go along with his three K's.

Pitch type values for the four Red regulars

Fangraphs has all kinds of handy stats, including sortable pitch type values. Only four Reds have accumulated sufficient at-bats to really form the basis for judgment in 2011 (or to "qualify for the batting title"), and you probably know which ones - Votto, Phillips, Stubbs and Bruce.

Fastballs:
Votto is 2nd best in MLB
BP, Stubbs and Bruce are all moderately good

Sliders:
Bruce is 6th best in MLB
Votto is neutral
Stubbs and BP are both terrible

Cutters:
Votto and BP are both in the top 30 of MLB
Bruce is moderately good
Stubbs is terrible

Curveballs:
Votto is #37 in MLB
Stubbs is neutral
Bruce is moderately bad
BP is terrible

Changeups:
Votto, Bruce and BP are all moderately good
Stubbs is terrible

Reds 3 Cardinals 2: The men behind the win 9/4/11

It may not mean much in light of the abomination of a series versus the Phillies which preceded it, but a series win on the Cardinals' home turf is always a welcome sight. In fact it was the first series win in St. Louis since a successful sweep in June of 2006, a span of 12 series including two sweeps, nine times that they lost 2 of 3, and one split of a 4-gamer in 2009.

The heroes today:

1) Juan Francisco. It's too early to judge but he's certainly had a nice first 4 games back in MLB. He went 4 for 5 with the game-winning, 2 out RBI today off Fernando Salas in the top of the 10th inning, ending 5 straight innings of nail-biting scoreless baseball.

2) Bronson Arroyo. A no-decision wasn't proper reward for his effort, scattering 10 hits over 8 innings and leaving the Reds tied 2-2. He struck out 5 and didn't walk a batter. Jon Jay got to him for a solo shot in the 1st, and Descalso had an RBI triple in the 4th to tie it, but Arroyo kept it that way through the next 4 innings.

3) Edgar Renteria. You know it was a slow day for offensive production (not for hits but for runs) when one of the top performers struck out three times. But his two-run dong in the top of the first off Edwin Jackson was the Reds' only regulation tally.

4) Francisco Cordero. Pitched a 1-2-3 10th inning for his 30th save.

Honorable mention to BP for going 2 for 4, getting on base 3 of 5 times in the leadoff spot, and raising his average to .301.

Red LOBster of the day: Ryan Hanigan (6 LOB). He had three different opportunities to hit with men on 1st and 3rd and 2 out (in the 6th, 8th and 10th innings) and came up empty each time.

Next up: 3 games in Chicago. In the first one, the Reds might try to get Willis a win for the first time in a Cincinnati uniform.

Hot and Cold by WPA

WPA is Win Probability Added. For any play, this ranges from -1 to 1, with most values close to zero. Like many other statistics, it's readily available and sortable on fangraphs.com.

Joey Votto is the leader in all of MLB in positive WPA accumulated (15.45), and second in overall WPA (add in his negative outcomes) to Bautista. For reference, he was second last year in MLB to Miguel Cabrera in both positive and overall WPA.

This metric points out the inconsistency of Bruce, Phillips and Stubbs - the only other Reds with "strangle-holds" on their respective positions, such that they have had opportunities to accumulate plenty of positive and negative WPA.

The three are ranked as follows (on fangraphs) in MLB for 2011 +WPA:
Bruce - 15th
Phillips - 30th
Stubbs - 44th

But they nearly (and in the case of Stubbs, fully) offset these positive outcomes with negative ones, as seen in their rankings for negative WPA:
Stubbs - 3rd in MLB
Bruce - 5th
BP - 15th

Ryan Hanigan: Harbinger of Victory?

Scott Rolen was a great catalyst for the 2010 Reds' offense. And there is no doubt that Joey Votto is the greatest offensive force on this team, and one of the great offensive talents in all of MLB.

Then you have a guy like Ryan Hanigan, who puts up solid (for a catcher) but unspectacular offensive numbers. Take heed when he produces, though, as the Reds are (all records for 2010 and 2011 combined):

9-0 when he homers
37-8 when he scores a run
25-9 in his multi-hit games
17-1 in his multi-RBI games

To some extent, there's an obvious explanation. If a bottom-of-the-order guy is racking up hits and run production, it's often because the game is a blowout. But that explanation only takes you so far, and doesn't fully account for the records above.

Here are some other fairly interesting Reds situational records (retrieved from baseball-reference):

24-4 in 2010/11 when Rolen has multiple RBIs
56-23 in 2010/11 when Rolen scores a run
13-4 in 2011 when Stubbs scores multiple runs
13-4 in 2011 when BP has multiple RBIs
8-0 in 2011 when Bruce steals a base

I find these splits (generally) to be more informative than simply "records in starts" because those are meaningless in the abundant cases where that particular player did not contribute much/anything to the victory. Want a perfect example? The Reds are 44-36 this year in Janish's starts, and it's not like he's been a catalyst. As with any numbers, they have to be considered in context of other numbers as well as detailed observations of the games.