Review of the Reds' April Offense

The last three seasons, the Reds have finished April with strikingly similar records:
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012


As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends.  I'll keep each summary brief.  Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split).  In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.


One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair.  Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month.  A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.




BATTING ORDER: 
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.


Leadoff:


2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)




Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49


The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.




The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season.  BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.




BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:


Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010.  Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions.  We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.


The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.


Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46


Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56




Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55


SITUATIONAL TRENDS:




Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123




Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49






Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise.  We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws.  1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term.  C and 2B should be okay.  3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.

2011 Reds with 1+ WAR change from 2010

The positive shifts in WAR from 2010 to 2011:
1) Leake -0.5 to 2.1
2) Cueto 2.0 to 4.3
3) Cordero 0.4 to 2.3
4) Phillips 2.6 to 4.2
5) Cairo 0.4 to 1.7

The negative shifts:
1) Bruce 4.6 to 1.3 (mostly due to drop in defensive value)
2) Rolen 3.5 to 0.6 (mostly due to injury)
3) Arroyo 2.1 to -0.5 (mostly due to...um...getting hammered almost every time he pitched)
4) Stubbs 5.2 to 3.0 (a combination of all the strikeouts and less defensive value)
5) Volquez 0.5 to -1.0
6) Maloney 0.4 to -0.8

The sum of all the changes listed here: -4.0 WAR

2011 Reds SP Game Scores

Johnny Cueto may have been the (extremely) hard luck loser today, but he posted yet another excellent start. By game scores, let's take a look at Red starting pitching. The single best start by anyone on the staff, when measured this way, was Mike Leake's win at San Francisco.

The standard formula: start with 50 points. Add 1 for each out, 1 for each strikeout, 2 for each inning completed after the 4th. Subtract 1 for each walk, 2 for each hit, 2 for each UER, and 4 for each ER. 50+ is considered a quality start with this method. According to Wikipedia, the highest game score achieved in a 9-inning game was Kerry Wood's famous 20 K 1-hitter.

Highest percentage of starts with scores of 70+
Cueto (27%)
Bailey (14%)
Leake (7%)
Arroyo (6%)
Wood (6%)
Volquez (0%)

Highest percentage of 60+
Cueto (82%)
Bailey (43%)
Leake (36%)
Volquez (20%)
Wood (19%)
Arroyo (18%)

Highest percentage of 50+ (quality starts)
Cueto (82%)
Leake (71%)
Bailey (57%)
Wood (50%)
Arroyo (47%)
Volquez (40%)

Cueto has actually had 10 of 11 quality starts by the standard definition (6+, 3 or fewer runs), but one of them didn't make the cut by game score because of the lack of strikeouts. Whether his strikeouts are an issue this year or not depends on your point of view. Typically it's not a good sign (in the sense that sustaining a high level of success with a lot of contact is rare) but it's helping him with efficiency, so I'm not personally inclined to complain.

If Bailey can stay healthy, it looks like he and Leake will be the #2 and #3 guys, but there is a lot of trouble beyond that point.

Arroyo has hardly given us any commanding performances. The number of 60+ game scores for him through this point in the season, each of his years here:

2006 - 9
2007 - 5
2008 - 6
2009 - 5
2010 - 7
2011 - 3

Fred Lewis for leadoff

Among our current choices, I don't really feel there's a good argument for anyone else.

Consider this:

If you look at the career stats of EVERY single position player on the team, there are only TWO who have higher career OBP leading off innings than their overall career OBP. Most are significantly worse starting things off, including Votto.

The two exceptions are:

Scott Rolen (only .002 higher, and not exactly someone you want leading off)

and

Fred Lewis (.349 overall, .371 leading off innings)

The trend has continued this season, albeit in a small sample size so far. He's got a .391 OBP in 23 such plate appearances.

Heisey: .178 (45 PA)
Stubbs: .286 (147 PA)

While I never want to see him batting 1st (or really in the lineup at all) against lefties, he should be seeing the majority of the time at leadoff unless we make a roster change or Stubbs somehow makes a massive turnaround.

Leadoff batters typically get 1/3 (or more) of their plate appearances leading off innings, while batters in other positions in the order only about 20-25%.

Stranded

Thought I'd take a look at the percentage of times individual players have been driven in once they get on base.

As a first example, Votto has reached base 156 times. Subtracting the 11 HR, that's 145 times actually ON base. He has scored 53 times, but you subtract the 11 HR again to get 42 times he was driven in by someone else or some other event.

So he has scored only 29% of the time when on base. Not good.

The rates for some others:

Stubbs: 43 of 103 (42%)
Phillips: 42 of 110 (38%)
Bruce: 29 of 94 (31%)
Gomes: 18 of 67 (27%)
Rolen: 24 of 59 (41%)

As you can see from this information and the previous post...Phillips and Votto do a fine job driving in Stubbs, Votto and Rolen drive in Phillips a lot, but we aren't doing enough hitting behind Votto.

RBI tandems

Through the Reds' 5-0 win over Tampa, taking them to 7-0 all-time against the Rays...

Our top run producers and the teammates they've driven in most frequently:

Votto (49 total)
Stubbs 14 times
BP 11
Himself 11
Heisey 4
Janish 3
Bruce, Renteria, Cairo, Bailey, Arroyo, Volquez 1

Bruce (49 total)
Himself 17 times
Votto 11
Stubbs 8
Rolen 5
BP 4
Cairo 2
Renteria, Heisey 1

Phillips (41 total)
Stubbs 10 times
Himself 6
Renteria 6
Janish, Votto 4
Cairo, Hernandez 2
Rolen, Wood, Lewis, Bruce, Leake, Cueto, Heisey 1

Rolen (32 total)
BP 14 times
Votto 8
Himself 4
Stubbs 3
Bruce, Cairo, Renteria 1

Stubbs (32 total)
Himself 11 times
Hanigan 5
Janish 3
Heisey, Renteria, Leake 2
Gomes, Hermida, Lewis, Cairo, Valaika, Bruce, Hernandez 1

Gomes (31 total)
Himself 11 times
BP 5
Rolen 4
Votto, Bruce 3
Stubbs 2
Hanigan, Heisey, Cairo 1

Heisey (29 total)
Himself 8 times
Janish, Hanigan 5
Votto 3
BP, Hernandez, Rolen 2
Cairo, Bruce 1

Leadoff Hitters and First Inning Offense

I mentioned in the previous post that Stubbs' OBP was insufficient for a leadoff man. While certainly not ideal, he's a long way from being the worst choice out there.

In fact, among the past 20 World Series winners (beginning with the Reds, ending with the Giants) five had equal or worse leadoff batter OBPs. Not that it's Hall of Fame company - Dan Gladden, Andres Torres, Luis Castillo, Devon White and Marquis Grissom.

In looking at these statistics I happened upon one other comparison between the current Reds and past champions, which is less favorable. All of the recent champions have been strong offensively in the first inning, scoring an average of 12.68% of their runs in that frame.

The lowest percentage, and only one under 10%, belonged to the 1996 New York Yankees (9.64%). Checking in at a whopping 17.84% were the 1997 Marlins - curiously so, considering their poor leadoff performance that season.

Our beloved Redlegs have been slow starters in 2011. After posting a respectable first inning run total in 2010, only 8.99% of their runs (34 of 378) have come in the opening inning this year.

As an inevitable result, the opposition has scored first in 62% of the games (48 of 78) and the Reds are 22-26 in those contests, only achieving such a decent record because of their late inning heroics.

Want specific players to blame? Among the three players with the most first inning at-bats, only Brandon Phillips hits well (.308 BA). Stubbs is an abysmal .177 and Votto an uncharacteristic .262 (but his OBP is still .395).

Guys like Jay Bruce (.292) and Scott Rolen (.267) likely have their statistics skewed upward by the fact they would only bat in the first if the Reds are succeeding against the pitcher.

In conclusion, we're still searching for our man at leadoff. Heisey may have hit pretty well now for a few games, but he's still only 2 for 11 in the first inning.

I've long thought that we should give Fred Lewis a shot now and then, as he does boast a career leadoff average higher than his overall average, and if I recall correctly he is the ONLY player on the Reds' roster with such a statistic.

This may (hopefully) become moot, with the (hopefully) imminent arrival of Dave Sappelt. Zack Cozart is another player with potential to give the Reds' inconsistent offense a shot in the arm, but that's a discussion for another day.

Drew Stubbs

Count me among those who welcomed the move down in the order for Drew Stubbs. His .325 OBP isn't going to cut it for a leadoff guy.

That being said, I haven't by any means given up on Drew. He hasn't even played in two full seasons' worth of games at the major league level - 42 in 2009, 150 in 2010, 76 so far in 2011.

One distressing aspect is, of course, his strikeout rate - exactly one-third of all his at-bats this year - and the fact it has slowly worsened rather than improved.

A couple stats to ponder, from fangraphs, for the 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons:

Line drive % of balls in play - 21.1 - 15.5 - 19.6
Infield hit % of ground balls - 18.5 - 12.0 - 10.3

It would certainly be nice to see Stubbs trying to get on base via bunt more often (only 3 attempted this season), but this is held back by the fact that, well, he's terrible at bunting.

Back to the original issue of strikeouts, fangraphs provides a window into why he does so frequently. He recognizes strikes (and swings accordingly) right along with league average. And in fact does a better job than average laying off balls outside the zone (swinging 25% of the time, compared with 30% average).

The problem is he doesn't make contact when he swings. Only 56% of the time (68% average) for balls, and 82% (88% average) for strikes. You might be saying, "but I see him strike out looking all the time." That might be so, but more contact earlier in the count would go a long way toward preventing it.

Walks Will Haunt

Without a doubt, Cincinnati's starters have turned in some better performances over the past few weeks. However, one prominent problem remains, as seen in Volquez's start last night. The entire staff has seen a jump in walks, from 3.2 per 9 innings in 2010 to 3.6 per 9 this season.

The worst offenders in 2010:
Volquez 5.0 per 9
Cordero 4.5
Masset 3.9

And in 2011:
Volquez 6.1 per 9 (wow)
Masset 4.7
Bray 3.5

One very positive thing from last night was Sam LeCure's (what else is new?) excellent outing. He came in with 2 RISP and 1 out, and got a K swinging, IBB and K looking. Followed up with a 1-2-3 inning.

The best Reds relievers at stranding inherited runners in 2010:
Rhodes - 14% scored
Ondrusek - 27%
Herrera - 28%
Masset - 28%
Bray - 29%

And in 2011:
Bray - 13% scored (3 of 24)
Arredondo - 14% (1 of 7)
LeCure - 17% (1 of 6)
Horst - 25% (1 of 4)

League average for this stat is about 31%

Cincinnati's Interleague Woes

As the Reds enter a road series against the Orioles (only their second trip all-time to Baltimore, and first in the regular season), let's take a look at some ugly interleague stats.

The worst interleague teams (1997 through 6/23/11)

Pittsburgh - .376
San Diego - .416
Baltimore - .438
Cincinnati - .441
Kansas City - .445

One common thing you'll hear among Reds fans is that playing a tough team like Cleveland as our twice-annual matchup puts us at a disadvantage, but that's not really responsible for Cincinnati's poor record against the AL - now standing at 93-118.

Here are the most lop-sided interleague rivalries:

Yankees over Mets (47-34 = .580)
Cardinals over Royals (38-28 = .576)
Angels over Dodgers (46-34 = .575)
Blue Jays over Nats/Expos (33-25 = .569) - note: Washington's new main rival is Baltimore
Twins over Brewers (36-28 = .563)
Rangers over Astros (35-28 = .556)

The Redlegs' 35-37 record against the Indians isn't great, and certainly might mean a difference of a couple games a year between them and St. Louis, but it isn't the driving force behind the terrible overall mark.

The real problems:

3-14 vs Chicago White Sox
1-8 vs Seattle Mariners
1-5 vs Boston Red Sox
4-8 vs Toronto Blue Jays
4-8 vs Oakland A's

Other than the White Sox, the Reds are right around .500 against the rest of the AL Central opponents. Also 5-4 against the Yankees and Rangers, 2-1 against the Orioles.

As far as individual seasons, most years the Redlegs have at least posted a respectable mark, with a few exceptions:

2001: 4-11
2002: 2-10
2007: 7-11
2011: 2-7 so far, with series @BAL, @TBR, vs CLE remaining

By the way, after Baltimore comes a trip to Tampa Bay - the only current MLB team never to beat the Reds...albeit in only six tries.