Reds win one of the most dominating playoff games in franchise history

By the numbers...

Reds win 9-0 shutout
- only the 12th MLB playoff shutout victory by 9 runs or more
- the largest Reds playoff shutout (previous record was 7-0 in 1990 WS game 1)
- only the 55th MLB playoff team pitching game allowing 2 or fewer hits, and the 4th by the Reds
- tied for the largest Reds playoff game winning margin (with 10-1 win in 1995 NLDS game 3)
- the 7th shutout in Reds playoff history, first since 7-0 in 1990 WS game 1
- only the 4th time the Reds have scored 9+ runs in a playoff game

Bronson Arroyo sparkles like a teen vampire
- the first 7+ inning game, allowing 1 or fewer hits, by a Reds pitcher in team playoff history
- only the 6th MLB playoff starting pitching performance of 7+ innings and 1 hit or fewer, 1 walk or fewer
- only the 14th Reds playoff starting pitching game score of 70 or higher

Brandon Phillips and Co. make individual offensive history for a Reds playoff game
- DatDudeBP is now tied for 19th in Reds playoff hits (9) and RBI (5) 
- Ryan Hanigan got his first three career playoff RBI, and Drew Stubbs got his first career playoff RBI
- Ryan Hanigan was only the 17th Reds player ever with 3+ RBI in a playoff game
- Scott Rolen had his 12th career playoff RBI, but first with the Reds

The Reds are now 8-1 all-time in playoff games on the west coast.

Most importantly, they're coming home with a 2-0 lead in the NLDS.

Reds' Offensive Leaders Without Votto

The Reds are 16-4 since MVP Joey Votto went down with a torn meniscus.  A lot of the thanks has to go to the pitching staff, which was dominant during the first 13 games in his absence.  Yet, perhaps surprisingly, they've only posted 9 quality starts in the 20 games overall.  So the bullpen, without question, deserves a lot of credit as well.  

But let's not forget that a number of position players have really stepped up to fill the offensive void.  Here are the leaders in the past 20 games (July 16th through August 5th):

Runs:
1) Stubbs - 22
2) Bruce, Cozart, Phillips - 11

Hits:
1) Stubbs - 24
2) Ludwick - 21
3) Phillips - 19

Doubles:
1) Ludwick - 6
2) Bruce, Phillips - 5
3) Hanigan - 4

Triples:
1) Rolen - 2
2) Cozart, Heisey - 1

Home Runs:
1) Ludwick - 6
2) Stubbs - 5
3) Bruce, Phillips, Frazier - 3

RBI:
1) Ludwick - 21
2) Stubbs - 15
3) Phillips - 13

BB:
1) Bruce - 13
2) Rolen - 10
3) Stubbs - 9

Stolen bases:
1) Stubbs - 7
2) Bruce - 2

Batting average:
1) Ludwick, Paul - .350
3) Phillips - .339
4) Stubbs - .338
5) Rolen - .333

OPS:
1) Ludwick - 1.159
2) Stubbs - .999
3) Rolen - .986
4) Phillips - .956
5) Bruce - .871

Conclusions:
- Ludwick is definitely the Votto-less MVP
- Stubbs is the most improved player during this span, becoming the guy we all want him to be
- Phillips was putting up awesome numbers so it's too bad that he went down as well, just a few days ago
- Paul was a great shot in the arm, especially in pinch-hitting roles
- Rolen had seemed a lost offensive cause in the first half, but he has been a huge boost too
- Frazier has actually been somewhat less productive during this span, yet his overall numbers are still superb for a rookie, putting him in solid ROY contention

Cincinnati Reds: July 2012 Summary

The Reds went a ridiculous 19-7 in July (including the first 10-game winning streak since 1999) to remain in first place in the NL Central with an overall record of 62-41.  When the month began, they led Pittsburgh by 1 game.  In spite of Cincinnati's torrid pace, Pittsburgh barely lost any ground - they only trail by 3 games.  The Reds' lead over St. Louis expanded from 3.5 to 7 games.


Cincinnati won 5 series (including 4 sweeps), lost 1 (at the Dodgers) and split 1 (at home against the Diamondbacks). 



**From July 6th through July 29th, their record was an astonishing 17-2.**


Home record: 9-3 (8-2 on the only completed home stand, 1-1 ongoing)
Road record: 10-4 (4-4 to finish their 5-6 West Coast trip, 6-0 on their second trip)
vs West: 10-7
vs Central: 9-0 (nice!)


Overall offensive trends: The offense stepped up admirably in Joey's absence (he missed 15 of the 26 games).  The batting average dipped only 3 points from June to .262, and the OBP only 9 points to .323.  Five players trended up significantly in OPS+, five trended down, and three stayed about the same.  Ryan Ludwick was phenomenal, Rolen showed a surprising return to old form, and Xavier Paul provided some unexpected help as well.


Overall pitching trends: The staff was outstanding, and the main reason that the team was able to weather the Votto-less storm.  The overall ERA was 3.03 (the best of the year).  After an already-solid June, the rotation boasted even better stats, going 14-5 with a 3.29 ERA. In June, Aroldis was the only problem in the bullpen.  The exact opposite was true in July, when he was virtually the only dominant force.  Relievers not named Chapman posted a 1.68 WHIP.  But thanks to his exceptional work, the relief corps still went 5-2 overall with a 2.43 ERA. 


Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Rolen +91, Heisey +87, Ludwick +48, Mesoraco +46, Frazier +24


DOWN significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Votto -102, Valdez -43, Cozart -37, Stubbs -30, Bruce -24


No significant change: Phillips, Hanigan, Cairo


Individual pitching trends:


UP significantly from June: Chapman, Arroyo, Bailey (all of whom had down months in June)

DOWN significantly from June: Leake, Simon, Arredondo

No significant change: everyone else




And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of July...

RANDY HITTER: Ryan Ludwick.  "Brother" led Reds regulars in batting average (.333), OPS (1.089), home runs (7) and RBI (19).

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Scott Rolen.  After looking like he was sinking toward retirement, he batted .321 in July with a .413 OBP (best among regulars).

RANDY STARTER: Homer Bailey.  4-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP that would've been even better without his implosion on the final day of the month.

Honorable mention: Bronson Arroyo (3-1), Johnny Cueto (4-1)

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Also Bailey.  He was coming off a losing record and 6 ERA in June.

RANDY RELIEVER: Aroldis Chapman.  An insanely easy choice...14.1 sparkling innings of shutout ball.  Only 6 hits allowed, 2 walks, and 31 strikeouts.  A perfect 13 for 13 on saves.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Also Chapman.  June was his disaster month, with an 0-4 record and an ERA approaching 7.

RANDY NOOB: Xavier Paul.  7 for his first 13 as a Red, including 2 doubles and 2 key RBIs...we'll take it!

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Drew Stubbs.  A guy who really needed a confidence builder provided a huge boost on July 24th at Houston, going 3 for 4 including a homer that brought the Reds from down 2-1 to up 3-2 in the top of the 9th.  That was one of the biggest hits of the entire season so far.  Altogether, he was on base 4 of 5 times, with a strikeout and CS the only two blemishes on an awesome day.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Bronson Arroyo.  He started the Reds' first win streak of the month when, on July 6th at San Diego, he pitched a complete-game, three-hit shutout.  Bronson struck out 8, walked 1, and needed only 110 pitches to post the best game score by any Reds pitcher this year - 88. 

A few more stats on the Reds' April Offense

Win Probability Added (a value of 1.0 means, essentially, this player has contributed one win to the team):
Best:
Votto 1.2 
Bruce: 0.6 
Cozart 0.5


Worst:
Stubbs -0.6
Harris -0.6
Rolen - 0.4

For the following two metrics, I compared the entire year of 2011 to April 2012 numbers. 


Line-drive percentage (18% is league average)


Improved significantly from 2011:
Bruce - 23 (18 last year)
Rolen - 20 (17)
Cozart - 19 (13)


Declined significantly from 2011:
Phillips - 17 (21 last year)
Stubbs - 16 (20)
Heisey - 15 (20)


The best on the team for this stat is, of course, Joey Votto, checking in at 26% for both years.


Strike-out rate (20% is league average)

Improved significantly from 2011:
Stubbs - 26 (30 last year)
Heisey - 20 (25)
Mesoraco - 8 (19)


Declined significantly from 2011:
Rolen - 20 (13)

You might be surprised to hear that Votto strikes out more than the league average, at 24%.

Review of the Reds' April Offense

The last three seasons, the Reds have finished April with strikingly similar records:
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012


As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends.  I'll keep each summary brief.  Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split).  In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.


One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair.  Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month.  A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.




BATTING ORDER: 
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.


Leadoff:


2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)




Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49


The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.




The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season.  BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.




BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:


Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010.  Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions.  We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.


The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.


Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46


Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56




Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55


SITUATIONAL TRENDS:




Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123




Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49






Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise.  We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws.  1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term.  C and 2B should be okay.  3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds third basemen

This is the most interesting position so far. Like first base, there isn't a clear favorite. And it's also the only position other than CF without an NL MVP season from any Red. Moreover, the Cincinnati hot corner has been lacking in defensive prowess, as Scott Rolen (2010) became the first Red ever to win a Gold Glove at the position. Again, the rules: 120+ games played, at least 50% at that position. I examined conventional statistics, WAR, and awards. A lot of these decisions, especially Perez vs Rose and where to rank Groh, were very difficult.

1) Tony Perez, 1970. 6.7 WAR. First among Red 3B in HR and OPS. Second in RBI and WAR. Finished third in NL MVP voting.

2) Pete Rose, 1976. 6.7 WAR. First among Red 3B in runs, hits and batting average. Second in WAR. Finished fourth in NL MVP voting.

3) Heinie Groh, 1917. 6.9 WAR. He played in an entirely different era, so many of his counting stats don't measure up, but he really belongs in the top 3. Groh led the league in hits, doubles and OBP in 1917. This season ranks him 7th in hits and 5th in doubles among all Red third basemen.

The best of the rest:
4) Heinie Groh, 1919 - led the league in OPS, posted 6.2 WAR
5) Tony Perez, 1969 - second among Red 3B in HR, OPS. 5.6 WAR.
6) Pete Rose, 1975 - second among Red 3B in hits, doubles and walks. 4.4 WAR.
7) Deron Johnson, 1965 - first among Red 3B in RBI, fourth in MVP voting
8) Chris Sabo, 1988 - second among Red 3B in stolen bases, Rookie of the Year
9) Billy Werber, 1939 - led the league in runs scored, posted 4.5 WAR
10) Don Hoak, 1957 - third among Red 3B in OPS, led the league in doubles

Also worth mentioning:
Billy Werber, 1940 (5.0 WAR)
Chris Sabo, 1991 (4th among Red 3B in OPS, 4.1 WAR)
Heinie Groh, 1918 (led league in runs, doubles and OBP, 4.7 WAR)
Tony Perez, 1968 and 1971
Pete Rose, 1977 and 1978

Ryan Hanigan: Harbinger of Victory?

Scott Rolen was a great catalyst for the 2010 Reds' offense. And there is no doubt that Joey Votto is the greatest offensive force on this team, and one of the great offensive talents in all of MLB.

Then you have a guy like Ryan Hanigan, who puts up solid (for a catcher) but unspectacular offensive numbers. Take heed when he produces, though, as the Reds are (all records for 2010 and 2011 combined):

9-0 when he homers
37-8 when he scores a run
25-9 in his multi-hit games
17-1 in his multi-RBI games

To some extent, there's an obvious explanation. If a bottom-of-the-order guy is racking up hits and run production, it's often because the game is a blowout. But that explanation only takes you so far, and doesn't fully account for the records above.

Here are some other fairly interesting Reds situational records (retrieved from baseball-reference):

24-4 in 2010/11 when Rolen has multiple RBIs
56-23 in 2010/11 when Rolen scores a run
13-4 in 2011 when Stubbs scores multiple runs
13-4 in 2011 when BP has multiple RBIs
8-0 in 2011 when Bruce steals a base

I find these splits (generally) to be more informative than simply "records in starts" because those are meaningless in the abundant cases where that particular player did not contribute much/anything to the victory. Want a perfect example? The Reds are 44-36 this year in Janish's starts, and it's not like he's been a catalyst. As with any numbers, they have to be considered in context of other numbers as well as detailed observations of the games.

Positional and batting order OPS for 2011

1) Fielding positions where the Reds are above MLB average for OPS: C, 1B, 2B, CF, RF, PH

Note: The overall number for CF is skewed upward by the select few games where Heisey started and blasted some home runs. Stubbs is actually below league average for the position (.714, compared to .742)

2) Fielding positions where the Reds are below MLB average for OPS: SS, 3B, LF

Note: All of these should come as little surprise, but thanks to Cairo at third offsetting Rolen's number, the Reds were almost dead-even with league average at the position (.691). Gomes' OPS in left was significantly better than Lewis or Heisey.

3) Batting order positions where the Reds are above MLB average for OPS: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th

Note: Not only has Bruce been much better than average when batting 5th, but Gomes was above average too at .803.

4) Batting order positions where the Reds are below MLB average for OPS: 1st, 4th, 6th

Note: Stubbs' .715 is only a hair lower than league average when batting leadoff. Bruce, BP and Rolen have all failed to produce up to league average when batting cleanup, although Rolen was by far the worst with an OPS of .551. One more bizarre Gomes note...his .876 OPS in the 6th spot is better than anyone else on the team with significant time there.

MLB rankings of these stats

C - 9th
1B - 4th
2B - 10th
3B - 17th
SS - 24th
LF - 21st
CF - 11th
RF - 7th
P - 6th
DH - 9th
PH - 2nd

Leadoff - 15th
2 - 12th
3 - 2nd
Cleanup - 26th
5 - 8th
6 - 19th
7 - 10th
8 - 6th

All stats from baseball-reference

The men behind the win, 7/9/11

1) Jay Bruce - 2 singles, 2 walks, 1 HR in 6 PAs. Go-ahead solo HR in the 10th inning for his only RBI. 2 runs scored.

2) Ramon Hernandez - single, HR in 5 ABs. 3 RBIs. Gave the Reds their first lead.

3) Joey Votto - 3 singles, 1 BB in 6 PAs. 1 RBI

4) Bill Bray - he did have a nightmarish throwing error on a pickoff attempt in the 9th (the THIRD error by a Reds pitcher in a single game). BUT he came in with a guy on and nobody out in a tie game, got a K and flyout, walked Fielder intentionally and then sent it to extras by recording the last out. He's the one guy on the team who has consistently performed with inherited runners.

The underperformers (in spite of the win):

- Drew Stubbs (0 for 6 in the leadoff spot, with 3 strikeouts...a familiar refrain)
- Johnny Cueto...the absolute definition of a non-quality quality start. 4 walks. 2 errors. Gave up all the runs early. But if this is about as bad as it gets for 2011 Cueto (and basically, it is) we'll take it. Frankly I'm not surprised that he struggled a bit. He hasn't pitched well at Miller Park and the pre-game team meeting probably added some pressure to his outing.
- Scott Rolen...1 for 5 with 2 strikeouts...and an unfathomable NINE MEN LEFT ON BASE
- Fred Lewis twice failed to convert with 2 outs and the bases loaded.

The Reds went 3 for 7 with 2 outs and RISP. 0 for 3 (Lewis twice, Rolen) in regulation and then 3 for 4 in the big 10th inning - Cairo, Votto and BP all had RBI singles and Bruce lined out.

RBI tandems

Through the Reds' 5-0 win over Tampa, taking them to 7-0 all-time against the Rays...

Our top run producers and the teammates they've driven in most frequently:

Votto (49 total)
Stubbs 14 times
BP 11
Himself 11
Heisey 4
Janish 3
Bruce, Renteria, Cairo, Bailey, Arroyo, Volquez 1

Bruce (49 total)
Himself 17 times
Votto 11
Stubbs 8
Rolen 5
BP 4
Cairo 2
Renteria, Heisey 1

Phillips (41 total)
Stubbs 10 times
Himself 6
Renteria 6
Janish, Votto 4
Cairo, Hernandez 2
Rolen, Wood, Lewis, Bruce, Leake, Cueto, Heisey 1

Rolen (32 total)
BP 14 times
Votto 8
Himself 4
Stubbs 3
Bruce, Cairo, Renteria 1

Stubbs (32 total)
Himself 11 times
Hanigan 5
Janish 3
Heisey, Renteria, Leake 2
Gomes, Hermida, Lewis, Cairo, Valaika, Bruce, Hernandez 1

Gomes (31 total)
Himself 11 times
BP 5
Rolen 4
Votto, Bruce 3
Stubbs 2
Hanigan, Heisey, Cairo 1

Heisey (29 total)
Himself 8 times
Janish, Hanigan 5
Votto 3
BP, Hernandez, Rolen 2
Cairo, Bruce 1