Cincinnati Reds: August 2012 Summary

The Reds went 19-11 in August, which was their second-best mark of 2012 (behind the 19-7 record in July).  They now sit at 81-52, with the most wins in all of baseball and only a slightly worse winning percentage than the Washington Nationals.  Because both Pittsburgh and St. Louis struggled a bit, they both fell farther behind in the NL Central.  The Reds' lead over Pittsburgh expanded from 3 to 10 games, and their lead over St. Louis from 7 to 9.5 games.
Cincinnati played 8 complete series in August, winning 5 (one sweep at Arizona), losing 2 (one sweep at Milwaukee) and splitting 1 (at Philadelphia).  At the start of the month, they also finished off a winning series at home against San Diego with two wins.  At the end of the month, they won the first game of a series in Houston.

**The Reds already have six different winning streaks of 5+ games this season, and could make it seven with a win on September 1st**

Home record: 10-5 (4-1 to finish their first stand, 5-2 in the second, then lost a series against St. Louis)
Road record: 9-6 (3-4 in the Milwaukee/Chicago trip, 2-2 in Philly, 4-0 so far in Arizona/Houston)

vs East: 4-3
vs Central: 10-8 (a little disappointing)
vs West: 5-0

Overall offensive trends: The offense continued its successful summer, in fact posting its best batting average of the year (.272) in spite of missing Votto for the entire month.  Ludwick, Rolen and Frazier continues to star.  Bruce stepped up after a mediocre July.  Heisey has emerged as a possible hope in CF after Stubbs returned to poor form after his deceiving pre-deadline surge.  The team also slugged an impressive 38 HR in 30 games, with Ludwick and Bruce providing 7 each.


Overall pitching trends: The staff actually had its worst month of the year as a whole, but the numbers were still fairly good, which goes to show how much improvement the organization has had since recent years.  Both the starters (3.96 ERA) and relievers (3.31 ERA) had their worst marks.  There were still some impressive individual performances, and they closed out the month with four straight solid outings on the road.

Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from July (20 or more OPS+ points): Cairo +65, Hanigan +55, Bruce +50, Cozart +44, Frazier +30

DOWN significantly from July (20 or more OPS+ points): Paul -163, Mesoraco -96, Valdez -81, Stubbs -67, Ludwick -22

No significant change: Rolen, Heisey, Phillips (all had good months)....Votto (still injured)

New arrivals: Dioner Navarro had only 6 hits but two were key homers.




Individual pitching trends:

UP significantly from July: Latos, Simon, Leake, Arredondo

DOWN significantly from July: LeCure, Marshall, Bailey, Arroyo (only in terms of ERA), Ondrusek

No significant change: Chapman (still dominant), Cueto (still dominant)




New arrivals: Hoover was awesome in his return, trade acquisition Broxton has been pretty solid overall, and Redmond was shaky in his fill-in start


And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of August...

RANDY HITTER: Todd Frazier.  The clear favorite for NL Rookie of the Year went .330/.393/.587 with 6 HR, 8 doubles and a team-leading 25 RBI.

Honorable mention: Ryan Ludwick, Jay Bruce

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Ryan Hanigan.  A guy with only 19 RBI on the year had 7 in August, including some very key hits (one of them a walk-off).

RANDY STARTER: Johnny Cueto.  Our ace was awesome again...4-1, 2.76, 0.85 WHIP.  38 K and only 7 walks.

Honorable mention: Mat Latos had a 2.61 ERA and insufficient run support.  Bronson Arroyo had 5 wins.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Mike Leake.

RANDY RELIEVER: Aroldis Chapman, again.  After a spotless July, allowed only one run in August.  0.68 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 18 K and 2 walks in 13 IP.  11 for 11 in save opportunities.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Jose Arredondo.  After a poor July, posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in August to return to form.

RANDY NOOB: Dioner Navarro.  Two key and unexpected homers.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Brandon Phillips.  He hates the WLBs, and he gave a hell of a performance on August 25th in helping the Reds win at least one game of the home St. Louis series.  BP went 3 for 5 with a homer and 2 important RBI in an 8-2 win.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Mike Leake.  When people looked at the Leake/Dickey matchup on August 15th, they probably didn't expect Leake to dominate it.  But he did.  In that 6-1 win, he tossed a complete game, allowing only 1 run and 4 hits.  Leake struck out 4 and didn't walk a batter.  Meanwhile, the Reds offense went yard multiple times off the knuckleballer in his support.

Cincinnati Reds: July 2012 Summary

The Reds went a ridiculous 19-7 in July (including the first 10-game winning streak since 1999) to remain in first place in the NL Central with an overall record of 62-41.  When the month began, they led Pittsburgh by 1 game.  In spite of Cincinnati's torrid pace, Pittsburgh barely lost any ground - they only trail by 3 games.  The Reds' lead over St. Louis expanded from 3.5 to 7 games.


Cincinnati won 5 series (including 4 sweeps), lost 1 (at the Dodgers) and split 1 (at home against the Diamondbacks). 



**From July 6th through July 29th, their record was an astonishing 17-2.**


Home record: 9-3 (8-2 on the only completed home stand, 1-1 ongoing)
Road record: 10-4 (4-4 to finish their 5-6 West Coast trip, 6-0 on their second trip)
vs West: 10-7
vs Central: 9-0 (nice!)


Overall offensive trends: The offense stepped up admirably in Joey's absence (he missed 15 of the 26 games).  The batting average dipped only 3 points from June to .262, and the OBP only 9 points to .323.  Five players trended up significantly in OPS+, five trended down, and three stayed about the same.  Ryan Ludwick was phenomenal, Rolen showed a surprising return to old form, and Xavier Paul provided some unexpected help as well.


Overall pitching trends: The staff was outstanding, and the main reason that the team was able to weather the Votto-less storm.  The overall ERA was 3.03 (the best of the year).  After an already-solid June, the rotation boasted even better stats, going 14-5 with a 3.29 ERA. In June, Aroldis was the only problem in the bullpen.  The exact opposite was true in July, when he was virtually the only dominant force.  Relievers not named Chapman posted a 1.68 WHIP.  But thanks to his exceptional work, the relief corps still went 5-2 overall with a 2.43 ERA. 


Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Rolen +91, Heisey +87, Ludwick +48, Mesoraco +46, Frazier +24


DOWN significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Votto -102, Valdez -43, Cozart -37, Stubbs -30, Bruce -24


No significant change: Phillips, Hanigan, Cairo


Individual pitching trends:


UP significantly from June: Chapman, Arroyo, Bailey (all of whom had down months in June)

DOWN significantly from June: Leake, Simon, Arredondo

No significant change: everyone else




And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of July...

RANDY HITTER: Ryan Ludwick.  "Brother" led Reds regulars in batting average (.333), OPS (1.089), home runs (7) and RBI (19).

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Scott Rolen.  After looking like he was sinking toward retirement, he batted .321 in July with a .413 OBP (best among regulars).

RANDY STARTER: Homer Bailey.  4-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP that would've been even better without his implosion on the final day of the month.

Honorable mention: Bronson Arroyo (3-1), Johnny Cueto (4-1)

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Also Bailey.  He was coming off a losing record and 6 ERA in June.

RANDY RELIEVER: Aroldis Chapman.  An insanely easy choice...14.1 sparkling innings of shutout ball.  Only 6 hits allowed, 2 walks, and 31 strikeouts.  A perfect 13 for 13 on saves.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Also Chapman.  June was his disaster month, with an 0-4 record and an ERA approaching 7.

RANDY NOOB: Xavier Paul.  7 for his first 13 as a Red, including 2 doubles and 2 key RBIs...we'll take it!

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Drew Stubbs.  A guy who really needed a confidence builder provided a huge boost on July 24th at Houston, going 3 for 4 including a homer that brought the Reds from down 2-1 to up 3-2 in the top of the 9th.  That was one of the biggest hits of the entire season so far.  Altogether, he was on base 4 of 5 times, with a strikeout and CS the only two blemishes on an awesome day.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Bronson Arroyo.  He started the Reds' first win streak of the month when, on July 6th at San Diego, he pitched a complete-game, three-hit shutout.  Bronson struck out 8, walked 1, and needed only 110 pitches to post the best game score by any Reds pitcher this year - 88. 

Cincinnati Reds: June 2012 Summary

The Reds went 15-12 in June to remain in first place in the NL Central with an overall record of 43-34.  When the month began, they led St. Louis by 1.5 games.  That lead has expanded to 3.5, but Pittsburgh has remained a worthy challenger, trailing by only 1 game entering play on July 1st.


Cincinnati won 4 series (including consecutive sweeps of the Indians and Mets), lost 4 (including a subsequent sweep at the hands of those same Indians), and lead 2-1 in the incomplete San Francisco series.


Home record: 8-7 (5-4 on the first home stand, 3-3 on the second...overall a bit disappointing)
Road record: 7-5
vs Central: 5-4
vs East: 3-0
vs West: 2-1
vs AL: 5-7 (what else is new...they always find a way to screw up interleague play)


Overall offensive trends: The hitting side made a very respectable showing in June, with a .265 average (23 points higher than May), a .332 OBP (26 points higher) and 112 OPS+ (14 points higher).  Seven players trended up significantly in OPS+, only two went down, and four stayed about the same.  Scoring 4.7 runs a game is definitely sufficient for a playoff contender. Hopefully they can keep this production up.


Overall pitching trends: The staff had mixed but still solid results.  Its ERA was 3.62 (the worst of the year so far) but the WHIP was 1.16 - the best of the year.  The main theme of the month was that the starting pitching fared very well.  The rotation was 11-6 with a 3.74 ERA, with Cueto, Leake and Latos all in top form.  The relief pitching was due for a shaky month, and it had one...but really, the only problem was Aroldis Chapman.  His 0-4 record and 6.97 ERA for June tells the story.   Everyone else did fine, especially Marshall.  Heading forward, the rotation looks good enough to keep us in the mix (barring injury).  The closer situation is an obvious concern.


Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from May (20 or more OPS+ points): Valdez +132, Ludwick +49, Rolen +44, Stubbs +38, Cozart +35, Bruce +25, Phillips +24


Note that Cozart, Rolen and Valdez (especially the latter two) improved from pretty dismal previous numbers.  Improvement is still improvement though.


DOWN significantly from May (20 or more OPS+ points): Heisey -54, Hanigan -50


No significant change: Votto +5, Frazier -14, Mesoraco +1, Cairo -12


Individual pitching trends:


UP significantly from May: Marshall, Cueto, Leake, Arredondo, LeCure, Ondrusek, Latos

DOWN significantly from May: Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman, Hoover

No significant change: Simon


And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of June.

RANDY HITTER: Joey Votto.  Batted .392 with 6 HR, 18 RBI.  An insane 221 OPS+

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Ryan Ludwick.  Raised his OPS significantly, contributed 6 HR and 13 RBI.

RANDY STARTER: Johnny Cueto.  Went 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA, had a complete game. 

Honorable mention: Mike Leake, Mat Latos

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Mike Leake.  Had a 2.55 ERA (1.8 runs lower) and deserved a better result than only a 2-0 record in 6 starts.

RANDY RELIEVER: Sean Marshall.  0.77 ERA and 0.60 WHIP with 9.3 K/9.  

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Also Marshall (lowered his ERA another 2+ runs), for the second straight month.

RANDY NOOB: Because no significant call-ups or acquisitions were made, I'm leaving this blank.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Jay Bruce, 6/29 at San Francisco.  Went 4 for 4 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI, backing up Leake's gem in an important 5-1 win.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Mat Latos, 6/25 vs Milwaukee.  Threw a dominating, 13 strikeout complete game, giving up only 1 run and 4 hits.

Cincinnati Reds: May 2012 Summary

The Reds went 17-11 in May to surge into first place in the NL Central, holding a lead of 1.5 games over the St. Louis Cardinals entering play June 1st.

Cincinnati won 5 series, split 3 and lost 2.


Home: 8-4
Road: 9-7
vs Central: 6-5
vs East: 7-4
vs West: 2-1
vs AL: 2-1

Overall offensive trends: Average stable at an ugly number (.240 April, .242 May).  OBP the same story: .306 in both months.  The only improvement was in power - slugging rose from .387 to .421, boosting the Reds' OPS+ from 95 to 98.  Bottom line: the Reds can win with this offense, but only if the pitching remains other-worldly.  They need to get on base more to help win this division.


Overall pitching trends: The starters posted almost identical, solid-but-not-spectacular numbers in May (3.86 ERA) relative to April (3.89).  The bullpen went from great to insanely great, lowering its ERA from 2.81 to 2.02 and its WHIP from 1.25 to 1.03.  All these numbers are good enough to make the playoffs.  Again, the question is offense.


Individual offensive trends:
UP significantly (40 or more OPS+ points): Votto, Heisey, Hanigan
DOWN significantly: Bruce, Cozart, Mesoraco
NOT MUCH CHANGE (GOOD): Phillips
NOT MUCH CHANGE (BAD): Stubbs


Individual pitching trends:
UP significantly: Latos, Bailey, Leake, Simon, LeCure, Marshall
DOWN significantly: Cueto, Arroyo, Ondrusek
NOT MUCH CHANGE (GOOD): Chapman, Arredondo

And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of May.

RANDY HITTER: 

Joey Votto - .355, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 23 walks

Honorable mention: Ryan Hanigan

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: 

Chris Heisey (raised his OPS+ by 46 points)

RANDY STARTER: 

Mat Latos (3-0, 3.26, and a 1.12 WHIP)

Honorable mention: Homer Bailey

RANDY MOST IMPROVED PITCHER: 

Mike Leake (his ERA was 2.1 runs lower)

RANDY RELIEVER: 

Aroldis Chapman (still sporting a 0.00 ERA, struck out 23 batters in May)

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: 

Sean Marshall (his ERA was 2.4 runs lower)

RANDY NEWBIE: 
JJ Hoover (0.90 ERA in 10 IP, 10 K) - yes he pitched in April, but May was his first full month with the Reds.