Brandon Phillips is no longer a Red. I remember meeting him at the 2007 Winter Caravan in Louisville and telling him I hoped he'd stay around a long time. And he did - ten full seasons after that conversation. There were a few ups and a lot of downs for the team as a whole, but no one can say that BP didn't have a significant (and even historical) impact at second base in Cincinnati. Second only to Joe Morgan in the modern era*, no matter how you slice it.
* - I'm basically excluding the 1800s Reds defensive specialist, and Hall of Famer, Bid McPhee
Let's look at some of Dat Dude's statistics - admittedly, some of them are purely based on his longevity with the team, but that is still worth celebrating.
OFFENSE
GAMES PLAYED AS A RED:
1) Rose - 2722
2) Concepcion - 2488
3) Larkin - 2180
4) Bench - 2158
5) McPhee - 2135
6) Perez - 1948
7) Phillips - 1614
HITS - Phillips is 9th with 1774
DOUBLES - Phillips is 8th with 311
HOME RUNS - Phillips is 12th with 191
RUNS BATTED IN - Phillips is 10th with 851
STOLEN BASES - Phillips is 14th with 194
WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT - Phillips is tied for 15th with 30.5 (Eric Davis also accrued 30.5)
And here are some (appropriately) random statistical notes about his best offensive seasons:
1) There have been only seven 20 HR / 20 SB seasons by Reds second basemen. Joe Morgan had 4 of them, and Phillips had the other 3. And even more impressively...
2) Phillips had the ONLY 30/30 year by a Reds second baseman (2007). In MLB history, he is the only 2B not named Alfonso Soriano or Ian Kinsler to accomplish it. So, he's the only NL second baseman ever with a 30/30 year.
3) And only two other Reds at ANY position have ever gone 30/30. Eric Davis in 1987 and Barry Larkin in 1996.
4) It's rare in baseball as a whole, too. Only 60 seasons of 30/30 in all of MLB history. Amazingly, the Bonds family owns 10 of them - Bobby and Barry each with five.
DEFENSE
Of course, BP was best known as a flashy defender, and won four Gold Gloves (2008, 2010, 2011, 2013). Only Johnny Bench (10 straight) and Joe Morgan (5 straight) won more of those awards in a Cincinnati uniform.
Brandon put together quite the highlight reel on defense, saving the day with diving stops and behind-the-back flips on a regular basis. There may have been a few times when the flash wasn't totally necessary, but he entertained the crowd and that's what sports are for, after all.
And his fielding percentage was remarkable. 7 seasons of .990 or higher, including two seasons of .996! Wow. The only 2B in Reds history with a comparable defensive peak was Bret Boone ('95 through '97), but that didn't last nearly as long. If it weren't for his early struggles (before 2007, when he really clicked both offensively and defensively), his career numbers would be truly insane.
As it is, his lifetime fielding percentage of .988 at second base is higher than ALL BUT ONE of the 2Bs in Cooperstown:
Ryne Sandberg - .989
(Brandon Phillips)
Craig Biggio - .984
Roberto Alomar - .984
Nellie Fox - .984
Jackie Robinson - .983
Bill Mazeroski - .983
Red Schoendienst - .983
Joe Morgan - .981
Bobby Doerr - .980
Paul Molitor - .979
Charlie Gehringer - .976
Frankie Frisch - .974
Rod Carew - .973
Eddie Collins - .970
Joe Gordon - .970
Tony Lazzeri - .967
Billy Herman - .967
Rogers Hornsby - .965
Nap Lajoie - .963
Johnny Evers - .955
Bid McPhee - .944 (to be fair, he didn't use a glove)
You might criticize this comparison in a couple ways:
1) Errors are subjective from scorer to scorer, and the typical assessment has also changed over time.
2) There are more advanced metrics now, which account for range.
But I'd respond this way:
1) Mistakes are still mistakes, and Brandon almost never made them. Being second only to Sandberg means he was doing something right.
2) His career range factor was slightly above league average, not below...so if he reached a better-than-average number of balls AND so rarely made errors, his defense is worthy of your respect.
Among current second basemen, there are only a few who measure up to BP in terms of fielding percentage:
Dustin Pedroia - .991
Robinson Cano - .988
Jose Altuve - .988
Baseball-reference.com's dWAR stat doesn't rate Brandon Phillips as "all-world" by any stretch, but he accumulated 8.5 dWAR during his time with the Reds, which is solid. It's worth noting that his defensive value was a combined 7.3 dWAR from 2007 through 2012, and then he had a predictable fall-off after age 32.
Age was certainly a factor in the trade, as there have been only 11 seasons in MLB history of 5+ WAR by a second baseman who was 35 or older. Most of them happened before 1930. In other words, it's no slap in his face to say that a 2B is past his prime. Middle infield isn't a place where players age gracefully.
But let's not end this on such a depressing note! Let's instead remember BP for these three awesome things:
1) Amazing defense - in his prime (roughly age 27-33), right up there with the best of the best of the best of all time
2) His sense of humor and interacting with the fans
3) Standing up to the "WLB's." I still feel that Brandon helped set the aggressive tone the Reds needed to finally break through in the division.
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Showing posts with label wins above replacement. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wins above replacement. Show all posts
Monday, February 13, 2017
Monday, August 1, 2016
The top 8 Reds right fielders since 1900
Since I already went through this exercise with the shortstop position in my last post, in honor of Zack Cozart, I figured I'd do the same positional rundown for Jay Bruce.
At first glance, it might seem like RF has not been a particularly productive position in Cincinnati. If you go to baseball-reference.com and enter a query stipulating that the players must have spent at least 50% of their time at a given position, and earned at least 30 WAR, you get the list below:
C - Bench and Lombardi
1B - Perez, Votto, Klu, McCormick
2B - Morgan (plus BP and Frey have accumulated 29 WAR each)
3B - Groh
SS - Larkin and Concepcion
LF - Foster
CF - Pinson, Roush, and Davis
RF - no one
But this leaves out two ENORMOUS names in Reds history - Pete Rose (#1 all-time in Reds WAR with 77.7) and Frank Robinson (#4 all-time, with 63.8). Both of them switched positions frequently during their careers, so they aren't really "attached" to a given position. I think the most fair thing to do is to include them in this discussion, but only count the seasons when they played most of the time in RF.
Wins Above Replacement
1) Frank Robinson - 29.4 total, earned during 1961, 1962, 1964 and 1965 (his seasons predominantly in RF with Reds)
2) Ken Griffey, Sr. - 25.3 (mostly during his first stint with the team from 1973 to 1981)
3) Pete Rose - 22 total, earned during 1968-1971 (his seasons in RF with Reds)
4) Reggie Sanders - 21.4 (1991-1998)
5) Ival Goodman - 21.4 (1935-1942)
6) Curt Walker - 18.8 (1924-1930)
7) Jay Bruce - 16.1 (2008-2016)
8) Wally Post - 15.8 (during two stints in the '50s and '60s)
Conclusion:
Griffey Sr. is the best among the full-time right fielders, but Robinson and Rose put up big numbers in only four years.
Bruce fits nicely into the next tier, which are hard to really separate. Sanders, Goodman, and Post especially are well-respected in Reds history, and I believe Bruce deserves a place in the Reds Hall as well. I'm almost 100% certain he'll make it.
Unlike at the shortstop position, where Cozart simply hasn't had enough time to accumulate WAR, Bruce has actually played with the Reds as long (or longer) as anyone else on the list. His counting stats are impressive, but it's his lack of ability to get on base (career OBP .319) and his defensive deterioration that have held down his WAR. Nevertheless, he is an all-time Red. Given more time, he probably would've gotten very close to Bench for most HRs (he had 233, Bench had 389). And he was one of the most likeable Reds in recent memory as well. So long, Jay.
At first glance, it might seem like RF has not been a particularly productive position in Cincinnati. If you go to baseball-reference.com and enter a query stipulating that the players must have spent at least 50% of their time at a given position, and earned at least 30 WAR, you get the list below:
C - Bench and Lombardi
1B - Perez, Votto, Klu, McCormick
2B - Morgan (plus BP and Frey have accumulated 29 WAR each)
3B - Groh
SS - Larkin and Concepcion
LF - Foster
CF - Pinson, Roush, and Davis
RF - no one
But this leaves out two ENORMOUS names in Reds history - Pete Rose (#1 all-time in Reds WAR with 77.7) and Frank Robinson (#4 all-time, with 63.8). Both of them switched positions frequently during their careers, so they aren't really "attached" to a given position. I think the most fair thing to do is to include them in this discussion, but only count the seasons when they played most of the time in RF.
Wins Above Replacement
1) Frank Robinson - 29.4 total, earned during 1961, 1962, 1964 and 1965 (his seasons predominantly in RF with Reds)
2) Ken Griffey, Sr. - 25.3 (mostly during his first stint with the team from 1973 to 1981)
3) Pete Rose - 22 total, earned during 1968-1971 (his seasons in RF with Reds)
4) Reggie Sanders - 21.4 (1991-1998)
5) Ival Goodman - 21.4 (1935-1942)
6) Curt Walker - 18.8 (1924-1930)
7) Jay Bruce - 16.1 (2008-2016)
8) Wally Post - 15.8 (during two stints in the '50s and '60s)
Conclusion:
Griffey Sr. is the best among the full-time right fielders, but Robinson and Rose put up big numbers in only four years.
Bruce fits nicely into the next tier, which are hard to really separate. Sanders, Goodman, and Post especially are well-respected in Reds history, and I believe Bruce deserves a place in the Reds Hall as well. I'm almost 100% certain he'll make it.
Unlike at the shortstop position, where Cozart simply hasn't had enough time to accumulate WAR, Bruce has actually played with the Reds as long (or longer) as anyone else on the list. His counting stats are impressive, but it's his lack of ability to get on base (career OBP .319) and his defensive deterioration that have held down his WAR. Nevertheless, he is an all-time Red. Given more time, he probably would've gotten very close to Bench for most HRs (he had 233, Bench had 389). And he was one of the most likeable Reds in recent memory as well. So long, Jay.
The top 8 Reds shortstops since 1900
There has been a lot of discussion of Cozart potentially being traded. While I would disagree with the move, it's a good time to look at where he stands among Reds shortstops in terms of all-time productivity.
Let's compare a few statistics...
Baseball-reference Wins Above Replacement
1) Barry Larkin, in a landslide. 70.2 WAR in a career spanning 1986 to 2004.
2) Dave Concepcion. 39.8 WAR from 1970 to 1988.
3) Roy McMillan. Earned 18.3 WAR from 1951 to 1960.
4) Leo Cardenas. 14.8 WAR from 1960 to 1968.
5) Billy Myers. 13.6 WAR from 1935 to 1940.
6) Zack Cozart. 12.3 WAR from 2011 to 2016.
7) Buck Herzog. 12.0 WAR in only 3 seasons, 1914 to 1916.
8) Eddie Miller. 10.6 WAR, mostly earned during his second stint in Cincinnati from 1943 through 1946.
Offensive WAR only
1) Larkin - 67.5
2) Concepcion - 32.3
3) Cardenas - 13.8
4) McMillan - 12.4
5) Myers - 10.7
6) Buck Herzog - 9.1
7) Felipe Lopez - 6.4
8) Zack Cozart - 6.1
Defensive WAR only
1) Concepcion - 20.9
2) McMillan - 14.4
3) Larkin - 13.8
4) Miller - 10.5
5) Cozart - 9.1
6) Cardenas - 8.5
7) Hod Ford - 7.6
8) Myers - 7.3
NOTE: oWAR and dWAR do not sum to WAR, for a couple different reasons not worth going into in this post.
So it's clear that Larkin and Concepcion were in a class by themselves, as far as all-time Reds shortstops. Cozart falls into the next tier with guys like McMillan, Cardenas, and Myers. But with his consistently solid defensive game, and dramatic improvements on offense, I have little doubt that Cozart would (have) move(d) into the top tier within the next couple seasons, and be a sure-fire Reds Hall of Famer.
Let's compare a few statistics...
Baseball-reference Wins Above Replacement
1) Barry Larkin, in a landslide. 70.2 WAR in a career spanning 1986 to 2004.
2) Dave Concepcion. 39.8 WAR from 1970 to 1988.
3) Roy McMillan. Earned 18.3 WAR from 1951 to 1960.
4) Leo Cardenas. 14.8 WAR from 1960 to 1968.
5) Billy Myers. 13.6 WAR from 1935 to 1940.
6) Zack Cozart. 12.3 WAR from 2011 to 2016.
7) Buck Herzog. 12.0 WAR in only 3 seasons, 1914 to 1916.
8) Eddie Miller. 10.6 WAR, mostly earned during his second stint in Cincinnati from 1943 through 1946.
Offensive WAR only
1) Larkin - 67.5
2) Concepcion - 32.3
3) Cardenas - 13.8
4) McMillan - 12.4
5) Myers - 10.7
6) Buck Herzog - 9.1
7) Felipe Lopez - 6.4
8) Zack Cozart - 6.1
Defensive WAR only
1) Concepcion - 20.9
2) McMillan - 14.4
3) Larkin - 13.8
4) Miller - 10.5
5) Cozart - 9.1
6) Cardenas - 8.5
7) Hod Ford - 7.6
8) Myers - 7.3
NOTE: oWAR and dWAR do not sum to WAR, for a couple different reasons not worth going into in this post.
So it's clear that Larkin and Concepcion were in a class by themselves, as far as all-time Reds shortstops. Cozart falls into the next tier with guys like McMillan, Cardenas, and Myers. But with his consistently solid defensive game, and dramatic improvements on offense, I have little doubt that Cozart would (have) move(d) into the top tier within the next couple seasons, and be a sure-fire Reds Hall of Famer.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Post-Reds WAR (since 2000)
Since 2000, the Cincinnati Reds' best-known "one that got away" is, of course, Josh Hamilton. Many Reds fans still won't shut up about him. And indeed, he has provided the most total value to his teams since, among all players the Reds lost to trade or free agency in that time period. Take a look at the list below. Some of the names might really surprise you.
Notes: Players appearing on this list must have appeared in at least one MLB game for the Reds in the 2000 season or more recently. Totals are based on baseball-reference.com's wins above replacement.
Top WAR (wins above replacement) accumulators after leaving the Reds:
1) Josh Hamilton (21.7)
2) Ryan Dempster (20.4)
3) Cody Ross (12.0)
4) Edwin Encarnacion (9.1)
5) Bruce Chen (8.3)
6) Russell Branyan (8.2)
7) Kyle Lohse (7.7)
8) Chris Denorfia (7.1)
9) Jose Guillen (6.7)
10) Dmitri Young (6.3)
11) David Ross (5.7)
12) Brady Clark (5.3)
13) Matt Belisle (5.1)
14) Jerry Hairston (5.0)
15) Dennys Reyes (4.6)
I think most Reds fans have been surprised by the performance of Encarnacion, Denorfia and others since their departure - heck, even Chris Dickerson and Adam Rosales have performed decently for their teams, although not well enough to make the list.
Needless to say, this list is skewed toward players who left a handful (or more) of seasons ago. Here are three players who, given more time, will probably accumulate some strong numbers:
Travis Wood (2.9 total WAR after leaving the Reds)
Yonder Alonso (1.9)
Didi Gregorius (1.7)
Notice that you didn't see some rather famous players listed? The Reds didn't miss out on much value by letting these guys go:
Sean Casey (-0.2 total WAR after leaving the Reds)
Adam Dunn (-0.7)
Ken Griffey, Jr. (0.2)
Notes: Players appearing on this list must have appeared in at least one MLB game for the Reds in the 2000 season or more recently. Totals are based on baseball-reference.com's wins above replacement.
Top WAR (wins above replacement) accumulators after leaving the Reds:
1) Josh Hamilton (21.7)
2) Ryan Dempster (20.4)
3) Cody Ross (12.0)
4) Edwin Encarnacion (9.1)
5) Bruce Chen (8.3)
6) Russell Branyan (8.2)
7) Kyle Lohse (7.7)
8) Chris Denorfia (7.1)
9) Jose Guillen (6.7)
10) Dmitri Young (6.3)
11) David Ross (5.7)
12) Brady Clark (5.3)
13) Matt Belisle (5.1)
14) Jerry Hairston (5.0)
15) Dennys Reyes (4.6)
I think most Reds fans have been surprised by the performance of Encarnacion, Denorfia and others since their departure - heck, even Chris Dickerson and Adam Rosales have performed decently for their teams, although not well enough to make the list.
Needless to say, this list is skewed toward players who left a handful (or more) of seasons ago. Here are three players who, given more time, will probably accumulate some strong numbers:
Travis Wood (2.9 total WAR after leaving the Reds)
Yonder Alonso (1.9)
Didi Gregorius (1.7)
Notice that you didn't see some rather famous players listed? The Reds didn't miss out on much value by letting these guys go:
Sean Casey (-0.2 total WAR after leaving the Reds)
Adam Dunn (-0.7)
Ken Griffey, Jr. (0.2)
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