In 2012, the Cincinnati Reds offense struggled in one very major way. Only Votto (.474), Hanigan (.365) and Ludwick (.346) got on base consistently. Here were their OBP ranks by position in MLB:
C - .333 (10th)
1B - .423 (1st)
2B - .306 (22nd)
3B - .304 (23rd)
SS - .284 (25th)
LF - .339 (10th)
CF - .282 (30th)
RF - .320 (21st)
Note: Reds pitchers were also above average with a .176 OBP (9th in MLB) but the 9th spot in the order isn't something you rely on for production on a game-to-game basis.
And here are their rankings through 40 games in 2013:
C - .290 (21st)
1B - .455 (1st) - leading all other teams by 37 points
2B - .333 (11th)
3B - .314 (19th)
SS - .250 (28th)
LF - .302 (21st)
CF - .468 (1st) - leading all other teams by 73 points
RF - .303 (19th)
As you can see, the only huge change was in CF. Votto's OBP is actually lower this year than last, but the team number for first base has improved as a result of him having 100% of the playing time so far this year.
Choo is almost single-handedly responsible for the team OBP jumping from an abysmal .315 last year (22nd in the league) to .335 in 2013, which now ranks third in baseball. Even with Cozart's weak bat behind him, Choo is tied for the MLB lead in runs scored (33). Just imagine the numbers he might be putting up with Ludwick healthy and BP back in the 2-hole...
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Showing posts with label 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012. Show all posts
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Monday, August 6, 2012
Reds' Offensive Leaders Without Votto
The Reds are 16-4 since MVP Joey Votto went down with a torn meniscus. A lot of the thanks has to go to the pitching staff, which was dominant during the first 13 games in his absence. Yet, perhaps surprisingly, they've only posted 9 quality starts in the 20 games overall. So the bullpen, without question, deserves a lot of credit as well.
But let's not forget that a number of position players have really stepped up to fill the offensive void. Here are the leaders in the past 20 games (July 16th through August 5th):
Runs:
1) Stubbs - 22
2) Bruce, Cozart, Phillips - 11
Hits:
1) Stubbs - 24
2) Ludwick - 21
3) Phillips - 19
Doubles:
1) Ludwick - 6
2) Bruce, Phillips - 5
3) Hanigan - 4
Triples:
1) Rolen - 2
2) Cozart, Heisey - 1
Home Runs:
1) Ludwick - 6
2) Stubbs - 5
3) Bruce, Phillips, Frazier - 3
RBI:
1) Ludwick - 21
2) Stubbs - 15
3) Phillips - 13
BB:
1) Bruce - 13
2) Rolen - 10
3) Stubbs - 9
Stolen bases:
1) Stubbs - 7
2) Bruce - 2
Batting average:
1) Ludwick, Paul - .350
3) Phillips - .339
4) Stubbs - .338
5) Rolen - .333
OPS:
1) Ludwick - 1.159
2) Stubbs - .999
3) Rolen - .986
4) Phillips - .956
5) Bruce - .871
Conclusions:
- Ludwick is definitely the Votto-less MVP
- Stubbs is the most improved player during this span, becoming the guy we all want him to be
- Phillips was putting up awesome numbers so it's too bad that he went down as well, just a few days ago
- Paul was a great shot in the arm, especially in pinch-hitting roles
- Rolen had seemed a lost offensive cause in the first half, but he has been a huge boost too
- Frazier has actually been somewhat less productive during this span, yet his overall numbers are still superb for a rookie, putting him in solid ROY contention
But let's not forget that a number of position players have really stepped up to fill the offensive void. Here are the leaders in the past 20 games (July 16th through August 5th):
Runs:
1) Stubbs - 22
2) Bruce, Cozart, Phillips - 11
Hits:
1) Stubbs - 24
2) Ludwick - 21
3) Phillips - 19
Doubles:
1) Ludwick - 6
2) Bruce, Phillips - 5
3) Hanigan - 4
Triples:
1) Rolen - 2
2) Cozart, Heisey - 1
Home Runs:
1) Ludwick - 6
2) Stubbs - 5
3) Bruce, Phillips, Frazier - 3
RBI:
1) Ludwick - 21
2) Stubbs - 15
3) Phillips - 13
BB:
1) Bruce - 13
2) Rolen - 10
3) Stubbs - 9
Stolen bases:
1) Stubbs - 7
2) Bruce - 2
Batting average:
1) Ludwick, Paul - .350
3) Phillips - .339
4) Stubbs - .338
5) Rolen - .333
OPS:
1) Ludwick - 1.159
2) Stubbs - .999
3) Rolen - .986
4) Phillips - .956
5) Bruce - .871
Conclusions:
- Ludwick is definitely the Votto-less MVP
- Stubbs is the most improved player during this span, becoming the guy we all want him to be
- Phillips was putting up awesome numbers so it's too bad that he went down as well, just a few days ago
- Paul was a great shot in the arm, especially in pinch-hitting roles
- Rolen had seemed a lost offensive cause in the first half, but he has been a huge boost too
- Frazier has actually been somewhat less productive during this span, yet his overall numbers are still superb for a rookie, putting him in solid ROY contention
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Cincinnati Reds: July 2012 Summary
The Reds went a ridiculous 19-7 in July (including the first 10-game winning streak since 1999) to remain in
first place in the NL Central with an overall record of 62-41. When
the month began, they led Pittsburgh by 1 game. In spite of Cincinnati's torrid pace, Pittsburgh barely lost any ground - they only trail by 3 games. The Reds' lead over St. Louis expanded from 3.5 to 7 games.
Cincinnati won 5 series (including 4 sweeps), lost 1 (at the Dodgers) and split 1 (at home against the Diamondbacks).
**From July 6th through July 29th, their record was an astonishing 17-2.**
Home record: 9-3 (8-2 on the only completed home stand, 1-1 ongoing)
Road record: 10-4 (4-4 to finish their 5-6 West Coast trip, 6-0 on their second trip)
vs West: 10-7
vs Central: 9-0 (nice!)
Overall offensive trends: The offense stepped up admirably in Joey's absence (he missed 15 of the 26 games). The batting average dipped only 3 points from June to .262, and the OBP only 9 points to .323. Five players trended up significantly in OPS+, five trended down, and three stayed about the same. Ryan Ludwick was phenomenal, Rolen showed a surprising return to old form, and Xavier Paul provided some unexpected help as well.
Overall pitching trends: The staff was outstanding, and the main reason that the team was able to weather the Votto-less storm. The overall ERA was 3.03 (the best of the year). After an already-solid June, the rotation boasted even better stats, going 14-5 with a 3.29 ERA. In June, Aroldis was the only problem in the bullpen. The exact opposite was true in July, when he was virtually the only dominant force. Relievers not named Chapman posted a 1.68 WHIP. But thanks to his exceptional work, the relief corps still went 5-2 overall with a 2.43 ERA.
Individual hitting trends:
UP significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Rolen +91, Heisey +87, Ludwick +48, Mesoraco +46, Frazier +24
DOWN significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Votto -102, Valdez -43, Cozart -37, Stubbs -30, Bruce -24
No significant change: Phillips, Hanigan, Cairo
Individual pitching trends:
UP significantly from June: Chapman, Arroyo, Bailey (all of whom had down months in June)
DOWN significantly from June: Leake, Simon, Arredondo
No significant change: everyone else
And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of July...
Cincinnati won 5 series (including 4 sweeps), lost 1 (at the Dodgers) and split 1 (at home against the Diamondbacks).
**From July 6th through July 29th, their record was an astonishing 17-2.**
Home record: 9-3 (8-2 on the only completed home stand, 1-1 ongoing)
Road record: 10-4 (4-4 to finish their 5-6 West Coast trip, 6-0 on their second trip)
vs West: 10-7
vs Central: 9-0 (nice!)
Overall offensive trends: The offense stepped up admirably in Joey's absence (he missed 15 of the 26 games). The batting average dipped only 3 points from June to .262, and the OBP only 9 points to .323. Five players trended up significantly in OPS+, five trended down, and three stayed about the same. Ryan Ludwick was phenomenal, Rolen showed a surprising return to old form, and Xavier Paul provided some unexpected help as well.
Overall pitching trends: The staff was outstanding, and the main reason that the team was able to weather the Votto-less storm. The overall ERA was 3.03 (the best of the year). After an already-solid June, the rotation boasted even better stats, going 14-5 with a 3.29 ERA. In June, Aroldis was the only problem in the bullpen. The exact opposite was true in July, when he was virtually the only dominant force. Relievers not named Chapman posted a 1.68 WHIP. But thanks to his exceptional work, the relief corps still went 5-2 overall with a 2.43 ERA.
Individual hitting trends:
UP significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Rolen +91, Heisey +87, Ludwick +48, Mesoraco +46, Frazier +24
DOWN significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Votto -102, Valdez -43, Cozart -37, Stubbs -30, Bruce -24
No significant change: Phillips, Hanigan, Cairo
Individual pitching trends:
UP significantly from June: Chapman, Arroyo, Bailey (all of whom had down months in June)
DOWN significantly from June: Leake, Simon, Arredondo
No significant change: everyone else
And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of July...
RANDY HITTER: Ryan Ludwick. "Brother" led Reds regulars in batting average (.333), OPS (1.089), home runs (7) and RBI (19).
Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier
RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Scott Rolen. After looking like he was sinking toward retirement, he batted .321 in July with a .413 OBP (best among regulars).
RANDY STARTER: Homer Bailey. 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP that would've been even better without his implosion on the final day of the month.
Honorable mention: Bronson Arroyo (3-1), Johnny Cueto (4-1)
RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Also Bailey. He was coming off a losing record and 6 ERA in June.
RANDY RELIEVER: Aroldis Chapman. An insanely easy choice...14.1 sparkling innings of shutout ball. Only 6 hits allowed, 2 walks, and 31 strikeouts. A perfect 13 for 13 on saves.
RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Also Chapman. June was his disaster month, with an 0-4 record and an ERA approaching 7.
RANDY NOOB: Xavier Paul. 7 for his first 13 as a Red, including 2 doubles and 2 key RBIs...we'll take it!
RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Drew Stubbs. A guy who really needed a confidence builder provided a huge boost on July 24th at Houston, going 3 for 4 including a homer that brought the Reds from down 2-1 to up 3-2 in the top of the 9th. That was one of the biggest hits of the entire season so far. Altogether, he was on base 4 of 5 times, with a strikeout and CS the only two blemishes on an awesome day.
RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Bronson Arroyo. He started the Reds' first win streak of the month when, on July 6th at San Diego, he pitched a complete-game, three-hit shutout. Bronson struck out 8, walked 1, and needed only 110 pitches to post the best game score by any Reds pitcher this year - 88.
Sunday, July 29, 2012
Longest winning streaks in Cincinnati Reds history
Here's a list of all the double-digit winning streaks (17 total) in Reds MLB history:
1) 14 games (1899)
2) 13 games (1890)
3) 12 games (1939, 1957)
4) 11 games (1894, 1896)
5) 10 games (1882, 1884, 1895, 1897, 1919, 1939, 1943, 1975, 1998, 1999, 2012)
Of course, the 1869 Red Stockings were a perfect 65-0. However, that was not only a different franchise than the current one - it also was not an MLB team, as it was the only fully professional team in existence at the time.
The Reds have had 16 double-digit losing streaks, including a 19-gamer in 1914.
Since 1900, the Reds have had 9 double-digit winning streaks, including the current one.
Among the previous 8, only 3 occurred as late in the season as the current one.
Considering the season in which streaks occurred, the date at which they occurred, and the effect on the standings, here are the most important since 1900:
1) 1999. 10 game streak through July 1st. Started behind 5.5 games, finished up a half game on Houston. Even if they ultimately missed the playoffs because of the play-in game, this streak was huge at the time.
2) 1939. 12 game streak in May. Started behind 1.5 games, finished up 2 games. Eventually won the NL pennant, partly thanks to another 10-game streak in July that boosted their lead from 8 to 12 games.
3) 1919. 10 game streak through August 26th. Started up 6 games, finished up 9 games. Eventually won the World Series.
4) 1975. 10 game streak through July 13th. Started up 7 games, finished up 12.5 games. Eventually won the World Series.
5) 2012. 10 game streak (and counting) through July 29th. Started tied in the division, currently up 3 games.
In case you were wondering:
Longest winning streak in MLB history: 26 games (New York Giants, 1916)
Longest winning streak in AL history: 20 games (Oakland Athletics, 2002)
1) 14 games (1899)
2) 13 games (1890)
3) 12 games (1939, 1957)
4) 11 games (1894, 1896)
5) 10 games (1882, 1884, 1895, 1897, 1919, 1939, 1943, 1975, 1998, 1999, 2012)
Of course, the 1869 Red Stockings were a perfect 65-0. However, that was not only a different franchise than the current one - it also was not an MLB team, as it was the only fully professional team in existence at the time.
The Reds have had 16 double-digit losing streaks, including a 19-gamer in 1914.
Since 1900, the Reds have had 9 double-digit winning streaks, including the current one.
Among the previous 8, only 3 occurred as late in the season as the current one.
Considering the season in which streaks occurred, the date at which they occurred, and the effect on the standings, here are the most important since 1900:
1) 1999. 10 game streak through July 1st. Started behind 5.5 games, finished up a half game on Houston. Even if they ultimately missed the playoffs because of the play-in game, this streak was huge at the time.
2) 1939. 12 game streak in May. Started behind 1.5 games, finished up 2 games. Eventually won the NL pennant, partly thanks to another 10-game streak in July that boosted their lead from 8 to 12 games.
3) 1919. 10 game streak through August 26th. Started up 6 games, finished up 9 games. Eventually won the World Series.
4) 1975. 10 game streak through July 13th. Started up 7 games, finished up 12.5 games. Eventually won the World Series.
5) 2012. 10 game streak (and counting) through July 29th. Started tied in the division, currently up 3 games.
In case you were wondering:
Longest winning streak in MLB history: 26 games (New York Giants, 1916)
Longest winning streak in AL history: 20 games (Oakland Athletics, 2002)
Friday, June 22, 2012
Reds All-Time Offensive Leaders in Interleague Play
Since interleague play began in 1997 the Cincinnati Reds have, without question, been a team in flux. They've made only one playoff appearance (in 2010) and the lineup, aside from a few mainstays, has shifted on an almost annual basis.
For example, the cutoff I used in comparing rate stats for this post was 55 interleague games - which is not even equivalent to four full seasons of such contests. Even so, only 10 players made the mark.
Active players underlined. All statistics through June 21st, 2012 - so they exclude the Reds/Twins series.
Most games:
1) Griffey - 115
2) Phillips - 106
3) Dunn - 98
4) Casey - 93
5) Larkin - 71
6) Bruce - 70
7) Votto - 67
8) Reese - 66
9) LaRue - 61
10) A. Boone - 55
Most hits:
1) Phillips - 132
2) Griffey - 105
3) Casey - 94
4) Dunn - 87
5) Larkin - 82
Most doubles:
1) Tie - Larkin, Votto and Phillips - 18
4) Casey - 17
5) Tie - Dunn and Bruce - 16
Most triples:
1) Larkin - 4
2) Numerous others tied with 1
Most home runs:
1) Griffey - 32
2) Dunn - 28
3) Votto - 18
4) Phillips - 17
Most RBIs:
1) Griffey - 71
2) Phillips - 62
3) Dunn - 56
4) Votto - 49
5) Casey - 43
Most walks:
1) Dunn - 59
2) Griffey - 43
3) Larkin - 39
4) Votto - 38
5) Casey - 30
Most strikeouts:
1) Dunn - 125
2) Griffey - 102
3) Bruce - 72
Most stolen bases:
1) Phillips - 20
2) Reese - 14
3) Tie - Freel and Stubbs - 10
Best batting average:
1) Phillips - .317
2) Larkin - .314
3) Votto - .298
Best on-base percentage:
1) Larkin - .401
2) Votto - .394
3) Dunn - .361
The biggest surprises from this list, for me:
- Brandon Phillips dominated a bunch of categories. I didn't expect him to have the best batting average or second-most RBIs. Very impressive.
- Joey Votto with a batting average below .300 is a shocker.
For example, the cutoff I used in comparing rate stats for this post was 55 interleague games - which is not even equivalent to four full seasons of such contests. Even so, only 10 players made the mark.
Active players underlined. All statistics through June 21st, 2012 - so they exclude the Reds/Twins series.
Most games:
1) Griffey - 115
2) Phillips - 106
3) Dunn - 98
4) Casey - 93
5) Larkin - 71
6) Bruce - 70
7) Votto - 67
8) Reese - 66
9) LaRue - 61
10) A. Boone - 55
Most hits:
1) Phillips - 132
2) Griffey - 105
3) Casey - 94
4) Dunn - 87
5) Larkin - 82
Most doubles:
1) Tie - Larkin, Votto and Phillips - 18
4) Casey - 17
5) Tie - Dunn and Bruce - 16
Most triples:
1) Larkin - 4
2) Numerous others tied with 1
Most home runs:
1) Griffey - 32
2) Dunn - 28
3) Votto - 18
4) Phillips - 17
Most RBIs:
1) Griffey - 71
2) Phillips - 62
3) Dunn - 56
4) Votto - 49
5) Casey - 43
Most walks:
1) Dunn - 59
2) Griffey - 43
3) Larkin - 39
4) Votto - 38
5) Casey - 30
Most strikeouts:
1) Dunn - 125
2) Griffey - 102
3) Bruce - 72
Most stolen bases:
1) Phillips - 20
2) Reese - 14
3) Tie - Freel and Stubbs - 10
Best batting average:
1) Phillips - .317
2) Larkin - .314
3) Votto - .298
Best on-base percentage:
1) Larkin - .401
2) Votto - .394
3) Dunn - .361
The biggest surprises from this list, for me:
- Brandon Phillips dominated a bunch of categories. I didn't expect him to have the best batting average or second-most RBIs. Very impressive.
- Joey Votto with a batting average below .300 is a shocker.
Thursday, June 14, 2012
Cincinnati Sweeps Cleveland: Facts and Stats
The Reds successfully finished off a sweep of the Indians with a 12-5 afternoon victory at GABP, and are now back to their season-high mark of 8 games over .500.
- This was only the second time they've swept Cleveland in an interleague series. The first was in May of 2008. Cleveland has swept Cincinnati 3 times, in 1999, 2004 and 2011.
- The Reds' all-time record against Cleveland is now 39-38 in interleague play.
- This was the second-highest single-game run total for the Reds against Cleveland. They won 14-5 on July 8th, 2000 at Cinergy Field.
- This was the highest single-game run total for the Reds in any interleague game since June 22nd, 2007 when they won 16-1 at Seattle.
- This is only the 6th time in 229 interleague games that the Reds have scored 12 or more.
- The Reds scored a total of 24 runs in the three-game series. They've never done that against Cleveland.
- The last time the Reds scored 24 or more in ANY three-game series was August, 2010 at Arizona (26 runs in a sweep).
- The last time the Reds scored 24 or more in a home three-game series was May, 2010 against Houston (27 runs in spite of being on the losing end of a shutout in the finale).
- The last time the Reds scored 24 or more in an interleague three-game series was June, 2005 against Tampa Bay (34 runs in a sweep). They only accomplished it one additional time - 1999 at Kansas City (30 runs in a sweep).
- The Reds' interleague record now stands at 103-126, for a winning percentage of .450 which is still the fourth-worst in MLB. Only the Orioles, Padres and Pirates have been worse.
- This was only the second time they've swept Cleveland in an interleague series. The first was in May of 2008. Cleveland has swept Cincinnati 3 times, in 1999, 2004 and 2011.
- The Reds' all-time record against Cleveland is now 39-38 in interleague play.
- This was the second-highest single-game run total for the Reds against Cleveland. They won 14-5 on July 8th, 2000 at Cinergy Field.
- This was the highest single-game run total for the Reds in any interleague game since June 22nd, 2007 when they won 16-1 at Seattle.
- This is only the 6th time in 229 interleague games that the Reds have scored 12 or more.
- The Reds scored a total of 24 runs in the three-game series. They've never done that against Cleveland.
- The last time the Reds scored 24 or more in ANY three-game series was August, 2010 at Arizona (26 runs in a sweep).
- The last time the Reds scored 24 or more in a home three-game series was May, 2010 against Houston (27 runs in spite of being on the losing end of a shutout in the finale).
- The last time the Reds scored 24 or more in an interleague three-game series was June, 2005 against Tampa Bay (34 runs in a sweep). They only accomplished it one additional time - 1999 at Kansas City (30 runs in a sweep).
- The Reds' interleague record now stands at 103-126, for a winning percentage of .450 which is still the fourth-worst in MLB. Only the Orioles, Padres and Pirates have been worse.
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Reds Bullpen on a Tear
FACT #1: Since Sean Marshall's unfortunate blown save against San Francisco on Thursday, April 26th, the Reds' bullpen has thrown 17 straight scoreless innings over the course of 5 games. During that remarkable stretch, they've only allowed 6 hits and struck out 14 while walking only 6.
FACT #2: Aroldis Chapman (13.1 innings), Logan Ondrusek (12) and JJ Hoover (4) are all yet to allow a single run (earned OR unearned) this season. That's a combined 29.1 scoreless innings, with only 11 hits allowed.
In addition, Jose Arredondo has 10.1 scoreless IP since his only outing (in early April) where he allowed any runs.
Wow.
FACT #2: Aroldis Chapman (13.1 innings), Logan Ondrusek (12) and JJ Hoover (4) are all yet to allow a single run (earned OR unearned) this season. That's a combined 29.1 scoreless innings, with only 11 hits allowed.
In addition, Jose Arredondo has 10.1 scoreless IP since his only outing (in early April) where he allowed any runs.
Wow.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
A Review of the Reds' April Pitching
The Reds have definitely shown some improvement on the mound in 2012. Unfortunately, the loss of Madson has prevented this from being a truly special group of pitchers. With him around, perhaps we'd be enjoying Chapman as a starter - likely in place of Leake, who has performed the worst in the rotation so far.
When compared to the two previous complete seasons of Cincinnati baseball, the Reds' April 2012 numbers stack up best of the group in the following categories:
ERA+ (109)
WHIP (1.29)
HR/9 (0.8)
K/BB (2.39)
BULLPEN
My grades for the relievers in April:
Chapman: A+
Ondrusek: A+
Arredondo: A
Simon: B-
LeCure: C-
Marshall: D
Bray: incomplete (injury, only 2.2 innings pitched)
Hoover: incomplete (only 3 inning pitched)
The relief corps has done very well, only allowing 23% of inherited runners to score, and holding opposing batters to a .210 average. The only problem is that we've had to lean so heavily on the top performers.
Aroldis Chapman and Logan Ondrusek have been absolute maniacs, with a combined 23.1 scoreless innings where they've allowed only 19 total baserunners (knock on wood).
ROTATION
I'd grade our five as follows:
Cueto: A+
Arroyo: A (great bounceback from 2011 so far, and we've needed it with Leake's dropoff)
Bailey: C+
Latos: D
Leake: F
It's reasonable to expect that Cueto and Bailey will finish the season roughly where they are now. Arroyo will probably regress a bit, and hopefully both Latos and Leake (or a replacement for Leake) will improve enough to more than offset that, giving the Reds a very solid rotation. Likely not enough to get the Reds a division title (unless they make a significant hitting acquisition), but very good nonetheless.
A few more random notes on the rotation:
OK: The starters' 1st inning ERA is about a run better than last year, but still a run worse than 2010
BAD: The batting average against our starters is the highest of the past three seasons, with only Cueto's lower than league average.
GOOD: The Reds' daytime ERA is only 3.06, meaning both our bats and our arms are best in the sunlight. Just wish we had more day games...
BAD: The starters have only achieved 50% quality starts and are averaging only 6 innings per start, due mostly to high pitch counts.
BAD: All five starters are striking out less than 20% of batters faced, including Latos with the worst rate of his career so far.
INDIVIDUAL STATS:
Best Win Probability Added:
Chapman 1.1
Ondrusek 0.8
Cueto 0.7
Worst WPA:
Marshall, Leake and Latos: -0.7
Best ERA+
Cueto 273 (best of career)
Arredondo 154 (best of career)
Arroyo 141 (best since 2006)
Worst ERA+
Leake 58 (his worst of past three seasons)
Latos 64 (his worst of past three seasons)
LeCure 70 (his worst of past three seasons)
As you can see, these ERA+ numbers are all more severe in both directions than they'll ultimately be for the entirety of 2012...hopefully the positive changes outweigh the negative over the balance of the season.
When compared to the two previous complete seasons of Cincinnati baseball, the Reds' April 2012 numbers stack up best of the group in the following categories:
ERA+ (109)
WHIP (1.29)
HR/9 (0.8)
K/BB (2.39)
BULLPEN
My grades for the relievers in April:
Chapman: A+
Ondrusek: A+
Arredondo: A
Simon: B-
LeCure: C-
Marshall: D
Bray: incomplete (injury, only 2.2 innings pitched)
Hoover: incomplete (only 3 inning pitched)
The relief corps has done very well, only allowing 23% of inherited runners to score, and holding opposing batters to a .210 average. The only problem is that we've had to lean so heavily on the top performers.
Aroldis Chapman and Logan Ondrusek have been absolute maniacs, with a combined 23.1 scoreless innings where they've allowed only 19 total baserunners (knock on wood).
ROTATION
I'd grade our five as follows:
Cueto: A+
Arroyo: A (great bounceback from 2011 so far, and we've needed it with Leake's dropoff)
Bailey: C+
Latos: D
Leake: F
It's reasonable to expect that Cueto and Bailey will finish the season roughly where they are now. Arroyo will probably regress a bit, and hopefully both Latos and Leake (or a replacement for Leake) will improve enough to more than offset that, giving the Reds a very solid rotation. Likely not enough to get the Reds a division title (unless they make a significant hitting acquisition), but very good nonetheless.
A few more random notes on the rotation:
OK: The starters' 1st inning ERA is about a run better than last year, but still a run worse than 2010
BAD: The batting average against our starters is the highest of the past three seasons, with only Cueto's lower than league average.
GOOD: The Reds' daytime ERA is only 3.06, meaning both our bats and our arms are best in the sunlight. Just wish we had more day games...
BAD: The starters have only achieved 50% quality starts and are averaging only 6 innings per start, due mostly to high pitch counts.
BAD: All five starters are striking out less than 20% of batters faced, including Latos with the worst rate of his career so far.
INDIVIDUAL STATS:
Best Win Probability Added:
Chapman 1.1
Ondrusek 0.8
Cueto 0.7
Worst WPA:
Marshall, Leake and Latos: -0.7
Best ERA+
Cueto 273 (best of career)
Arredondo 154 (best of career)
Arroyo 141 (best since 2006)
Worst ERA+
Leake 58 (his worst of past three seasons)
Latos 64 (his worst of past three seasons)
LeCure 70 (his worst of past three seasons)
As you can see, these ERA+ numbers are all more severe in both directions than they'll ultimately be for the entirety of 2012...hopefully the positive changes outweigh the negative over the balance of the season.
A few more stats on the Reds' April Offense
Win Probability Added (a value of 1.0 means, essentially, this player has contributed one win to the team):
Best:
Votto 1.2
Bruce: 0.6
Cozart 0.5
Worst:
Stubbs -0.6
Harris -0.6
Rolen - 0.4
For the following two metrics, I compared the entire year of 2011 to April 2012 numbers.
Line-drive percentage (18% is league average)
Improved significantly from 2011:
Bruce - 23 (18 last year)
Rolen - 20 (17)
Cozart - 19 (13)
Declined significantly from 2011:
Phillips - 17 (21 last year)
Stubbs - 16 (20)
Heisey - 15 (20)
The best on the team for this stat is, of course, Joey Votto, checking in at 26% for both years.
Strike-out rate (20% is league average)
Improved significantly from 2011:
Stubbs - 26 (30 last year)
Heisey - 20 (25)
Mesoraco - 8 (19)
Declined significantly from 2011:
Rolen - 20 (13)
You might be surprised to hear that Votto strikes out more than the league average, at 24%.
Best:
Votto 1.2
Bruce: 0.6
Cozart 0.5
Worst:
Stubbs -0.6
Harris -0.6
Rolen - 0.4
For the following two metrics, I compared the entire year of 2011 to April 2012 numbers.
Line-drive percentage (18% is league average)
Improved significantly from 2011:
Bruce - 23 (18 last year)
Rolen - 20 (17)
Cozart - 19 (13)
Declined significantly from 2011:
Phillips - 17 (21 last year)
Stubbs - 16 (20)
Heisey - 15 (20)
The best on the team for this stat is, of course, Joey Votto, checking in at 26% for both years.
Strike-out rate (20% is league average)
Improved significantly from 2011:
Stubbs - 26 (30 last year)
Heisey - 20 (25)
Mesoraco - 8 (19)
Declined significantly from 2011:
Rolen - 20 (13)
You might be surprised to hear that Votto strikes out more than the league average, at 24%.
Review of the Reds' April Offense
The last three seasons, the Reds have finished April with strikingly similar records:
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012
As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends. I'll keep each summary brief. Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split). In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.
One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair. Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month. A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.
BATTING ORDER:
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.
Leadoff:
2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)
Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49
The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.
The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season. BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.
BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:
Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010. Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions. We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.
The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.
Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46
Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56
Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55
SITUATIONAL TRENDS:
Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123
Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49
Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise. We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws. 1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term. C and 2B should be okay. 3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012
As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends. I'll keep each summary brief. Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split). In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.
One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair. Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month. A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.
BATTING ORDER:
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.
Leadoff:
2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)
Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49
The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.
The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season. BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.
BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:
Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010. Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions. We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.
The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.
Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46
Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56
Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55
SITUATIONAL TRENDS:
Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123
Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49
Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise. We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws. 1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term. C and 2B should be okay. 3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.
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