Choo changing the entire Reds offense

In 2012, the Cincinnati Reds offense struggled in one very major way.  Only Votto (.474), Hanigan (.365) and Ludwick (.346) got on base consistently.  Here were their OBP ranks by position in MLB:

C - .333 (10th)
1B - .423 (1st)
2B - .306 (22nd)
3B - .304 (23rd)
SS - .284 (25th)
LF - .339 (10th)
CF - .282 (30th)
RF - .320 (21st)
 
Note: Reds pitchers were also above average with a .176 OBP (9th in MLB) but the 9th spot in the order isn't something you rely on for production on a game-to-game basis.

And here are their rankings through 40 games in 2013:

C - .290 (21st)
1B - .455 (1st) - leading all other teams by 37 points
2B - .333 (11th)
3B - .314 (19th)
SS - .250 (28th)
LF - .302 (21st)
CF - .468 (1st) - leading all other teams by 73 points
RF - .303 (19th)

As you can see, the only huge change was in CF.  Votto's OBP is actually lower this year than last, but the team number for first base has improved as a result of him having 100% of the playing time so far this year.  

Choo is almost single-handedly responsible for the team OBP jumping from an abysmal .315 last year (22nd in the league) to .335 in 2013, which now ranks third in baseball.  Even with Cozart's weak bat behind him, Choo is tied for the MLB lead in runs scored (33).  Just imagine the numbers he might be putting up with Ludwick healthy and BP back in the 2-hole...

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds center fielders

The CF position is one where the Reds have had fairly sustained success, even if no one has won an MVP. In fact, six different decades are represented in this top ten.

1) Cy Seymour, 1905. Cy's numbers were ridiculous. He led the league in hits, doubles, triples, RBI, batting average, OBP, slugging and of course OPS. He also posted 8.4 WAR. Many of these statistics rank first all-time among Red CF.

2) Eric Davis, 1987. This season ranks him first all-time among Red CF in SLG and OPS, and second in HR and runs scored. He also won a Gold Glove, and accumulated 8.0 WAR, his personal best.

3) Vada Pinson, 1961. 7.4 WAR, Gold Glove, third in NL MVP voting. Led the league in hits, and had a .343 batting average.

4) Ken Griffey, Jr., 2000. Unfortunately his only excellent season as a Red. Most HR all-time by a Red CF, second in walks and RBI, 5.8 WAR. Of his top 12 WAR seasons, 11 were with Seattle.

The best of the rest:
5) Vada Pinson, 1963.
6) Vada Pinson, 1959.
7) Edd Roush, 1923.
8) Gus Bell, 1953.
9) Edd Roush, 1920.
10) Eric Davis, 1986.

Others worth mentioning:
Bobby Tolan, 1970 and 1972
Edd Roush, 1917 and 1919
Mike Cameron, 1999
Ken Griffey, Jr., 2005
Eric Davis, 1996

Predicting Runs Scored

I took the combined data from fangraphs for the seasons 1998-2011 (the current complement of teams). And correlated a few standard metrics with runs scored to see which has been the most predictive during the era. The following are R-squared values (highest equals best)

1 = wOBA (weighted on-base average) = .9714
2 = OBP x SLG = .9548
3 = OPS (OBP plus SLG) = .9492
4 = SLG = .8774
5 = OBP = .8736
6 = AVG = .7163

By the way, for wOBA in that time period, the Reds rank 12th in MLB.

The top teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Rockies, Indians, Cardinals

More NL Central comparisons

As we have basically reached the halfway point, here are more stats to consider. Keep in mind that the Brewers and Cardinals are tied for 1st, and the Reds are tied with the Pirates for 3rd.

ERA ranks by month

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
May - 1 = PIT, 2 = MIL, 3 = STL, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL

So Cincinnati is on the upward trend in pitching, thanks mostly to getting healthy.

OBP by month

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = CIN, 4 = PIT
May - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = PIT, 4 = MIL
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = PIT, 4 = STL

While the offense has been very inconsistent, overall it did better than these other contenders in June.

Winning percentage

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = PIT
May - 1 = tie (MIL and STL), 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = PIT, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL

Positional OBP among Central contenders

Ranking production (in terms of OBP) by position, among the four NL Central contenders

P: 1 = MIL, 2 = CIN
C: 1 = CIN, 2 = STL
1B: 1 = CIN, 2 = MIL
2B: 1 = MIL, 2 = CIN
3B: 1 = STL, 2 = CIN
SS: 1 = STL, 2 = PIT
LF: 1 = STL, 2 = MIL
CF: 1 = PIT, 2 = STL
RF: 1 = STL, 2 = CIN

St. Louis and Cincinnati both rank in the top 2 at 6 positions.

Milwaukee at 4 positions.

Pittsburgh at 2 positions.