A look at Brandon Phillips' place in Reds (and MLB) history

Brandon Phillips is no longer a Red.  I remember meeting him at the 2007 Winter Caravan in Louisville and telling him I hoped he'd stay around a long time.  And he did - ten full seasons after that conversation.  There were a few ups and a lot of downs for the team as a whole, but no one can say that BP didn't have a significant (and even historical) impact at second base in Cincinnati.  Second only to Joe Morgan in the modern era*, no matter how you slice it.

* - I'm basically excluding the 1800s Reds defensive specialist, and Hall of Famer, Bid McPhee

Let's look at some of Dat Dude's statistics - admittedly, some of them are purely based on his longevity with the team, but that is still worth celebrating.  

OFFENSE

GAMES PLAYED AS A RED:
1) Rose - 2722
2) Concepcion - 2488
3) Larkin - 2180
4) Bench - 2158
5) McPhee - 2135
6) Perez - 1948
7) Phillips - 1614

HITS - Phillips is 9th with 1774

DOUBLES - Phillips is 8th with 311

HOME RUNS - Phillips is 12th with 191

RUNS BATTED IN - Phillips is 10th with 851

STOLEN BASES - Phillips is 14th with 194

WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT - Phillips is tied for 15th with 30.5 (Eric Davis also accrued 30.5)


And here are some (appropriately) random statistical notes about his best offensive seasons:

1) There have been only seven 20 HR / 20 SB seasons by Reds second basemen.  Joe Morgan had 4 of them, and Phillips had the other 3.  And even more impressively...

2) Phillips had the ONLY 30/30 year by a Reds second baseman (2007).  In MLB history, he is the only 2B not named Alfonso Soriano or Ian Kinsler to accomplish it.  So, he's the only NL second baseman ever with a 30/30 year.

3) And only two other Reds at ANY position have ever gone 30/30.  Eric Davis in 1987 and Barry Larkin in 1996.

4) It's rare in baseball as a whole, too.  Only 60 seasons of 30/30 in all of MLB history.  Amazingly, the Bonds family owns 10 of them - Bobby and Barry each with five.

DEFENSE

Of course, BP was best known as a flashy defender, and won four Gold Gloves (2008, 2010, 2011, 2013).  Only Johnny Bench (10 straight) and Joe Morgan (5 straight) won more of those awards in a Cincinnati uniform.

Brandon put together quite the highlight reel on defense, saving the day with diving stops and behind-the-back flips on a regular basis.  There may have been a few times when the flash wasn't totally necessary, but he entertained the crowd and that's what sports are for, after all.

And his fielding percentage was remarkable.  7 seasons of .990 or higher, including two seasons of .996!  Wow.  The only 2B in Reds history with a comparable defensive peak was Bret Boone ('95 through '97), but that didn't last nearly as long.  If it weren't for his early struggles (before 2007, when he really clicked both offensively and defensively), his career numbers would be truly insane.  

As it is, his lifetime fielding percentage of .988 at second base is higher than ALL BUT ONE of the 2Bs in Cooperstown:

Ryne Sandberg - .989
(Brandon Phillips)
Craig Biggio - .984
Roberto Alomar - .984
Nellie Fox - .984
Jackie Robinson - .983
Bill Mazeroski - .983
Red Schoendienst - .983
Joe Morgan - .981
Bobby Doerr - .980
Paul Molitor - .979
Charlie Gehringer - .976
Frankie Frisch - .974
Rod Carew - .973
Eddie Collins - .970
Joe Gordon - .970
Tony Lazzeri - .967
Billy Herman - .967
Rogers Hornsby - .965
Nap Lajoie - .963
Johnny Evers - .955
Bid McPhee - .944 (to be fair, he didn't use a glove)

You might criticize this comparison in a couple ways:

1) Errors are subjective from scorer to scorer, and the typical assessment has also changed over time.

2) There are more advanced metrics now, which account for range.

But I'd respond this way:

1) Mistakes are still mistakes, and Brandon almost never made them.  Being second only to Sandberg means he was doing something right.

2) His career range factor was slightly above league average, not below...so if he reached a better-than-average number of balls AND so rarely made errors, his defense is worthy of your respect.

Among current second basemen, there are only a few who measure up to BP in terms of fielding percentage:

Dustin Pedroia - .991
Robinson Cano - .988
Jose Altuve - .988


Baseball-reference.com's dWAR stat doesn't rate Brandon Phillips as "all-world" by any stretch, but he accumulated 8.5 dWAR during his time with the Reds, which is solid.  It's worth noting that his defensive value was a combined 7.3 dWAR from 2007 through 2012, and then he had a predictable fall-off after age 32.  

Age was certainly a factor in the trade, as there have been only 11 seasons in MLB history of 5+ WAR by a second baseman who was 35 or older.  Most of them happened before 1930.  In other words, it's no slap in his face to say that a 2B is past his prime.  Middle infield isn't a place where players age gracefully.

But let's not end this on such a depressing note!  Let's instead remember BP for these three awesome things:

1) Amazing defense - in his prime (roughly age 27-33), right up there with the best of the best of the best of all time

2) His sense of humor and interacting with the fans

3) Standing up to the "WLB's."  I still feel that Brandon helped set the aggressive tone the Reds needed to finally break through in the division. 

The end of the Bruce / Phillips / Votto era

I'm 32 years old.  I started watching baseball in 1990, precisely when the Reds last won it all.  I heard about the Big Red Machine from my dad, and have since studied and watched them extensively.

The last 26 years have been frustrating.  But even when the team isn't making the playoffs, it's natural for a die-hard fan to get attached to individual Reds.  With rumors swirling about a trade of Jay Bruce, let's take a step back to appreciate the stability, productivity and longevity of this recent core group of players.  

Bruce, Phillips and Votto have been the primary starters at their respective positions for 8 consecutive seasons (2009-2016).  Only Machine-era combinations of 3+ players met or exceeded that.

Bench / Perez / Rose - 9 seasons (1968-1976)

Bench / Concepcion / Rose - 9 seasons (1970-1978)
Bruce / Phillips / Votto - 8 seasons (2009-2016)

Bench / Concepcion / Morgan - 8 seasons (1972-1979)

Bench / Concepcion / Perez / Rose - 7 seasons (1970-1976)
Helms / May / Perez / Rose - 6 seasons (1966-1971)
Cardenas / Pinson / Rose - 6 seasons (1963-1968)
Bell / McMillan / Temple - 6 seasons (1953-1958)
Groh / Roush / Wingo - 6 seasons (1916-1921)

All three have been extremely productive during their time as well.  There is no doubt that they will all end up in the Reds Hall of Fame.

Here are their rankings in some key stats...

Games played:
1) Rose - 2722
7) Phillips - 1566
20) Bruce - 1220
22) Votto - 1209

Hits:
1) Rose - 3358
9) Phillips - 1711
15) Votto - 1321
27) Bruce - 1116

HR:
1) Bench - 389
7) Bruce - 233
8) Votto - 210
12) Phillips - 186

RBI: 
1) Bench - 1376
10) Phillips - 824
15) Bruce - 718
17) Votto - 685

WAR (position players)
1) Rose - 77.7
8) Votto - 45.2
18) Phillips - 29.3
30) Bruce - 16.5


A number of things worked against this group.  While they had a solid pitching staff from 2010 through 2012, there were always weak links in the lineup, or mishaps along the way.  Most Reds fans believe we could've taken a championship in 2012, if not for Cueto's injury in Game 1 of the NLDS.  It certainly would have been interesting.  

While the postseason results have been disappointing, we've still had the opportunity to watch one of the most productive cores of position players in Reds history.  Let's appreciate that.

What to do with Barry Bonds and his numbers...

Most baseball fans are aware of ESPN's recent communal effort to rank the top 100 players in MLB history.  Many of you thought #MLBRANK, poorly-conceived hashtag and all, were...well, rank.  Some of the picks were, to be certain.  I had strong disagreements with many of the personalized lists - the only possible exception being Jayson Stark's.  He seems to always make an effort to be level in his judgements.  But I'll delve into that topic in some upcoming posts.  Here, I want to focus on Bonds.  

If you look at the top 10 in all-time Wins Above Replacement on baseball-reference.com, only two come with baggage:

1) BABE RUTH - 183.7

2) CY YOUNG - 170.3

3) BARRY BONDS - 162.4

4) WILLIE MAYS - 156.2

5) WALTER JOHNSON - 152.3

6) TY COBB - 151.0

7) HANK AARON - 142.6

8) ROGER CLEMENS - 139.4

9) TRIS SPEAKER - 133.7

10) HONUS WAGNER - 131.0

Yep, the 'roiders.  Here we go again.

Many fans seem to take one of these two extreme and opposite stances on Bonds' statistics:

1) "I'm tired of thinking about steroids.  He accomplished all of these amazing things, and he was on a pretty awesome trajectory before steroids anyway, so let's just count all of it and say he was in the top 3 all-time."

2) "DAMN ANY PED-USING DEVIL TO HELL!  NO HALL OF FAME AND NO TOP TEN OR TOP ONE HUNDRED OR TOP ONE BILLION FOR THIS AMORAL FOOL!"

Why can't there be a middle ground?  Probably because it's so difficult to find.  I'll try my best to present a reasonable alternative.

I'll keep this simple.  Bonds diverged from "reality" around age 36 and onward.  Elite power hitters don't put up their BIGGEST numbers at that age without the cream and the clear.  

I have a couple bar graphs to show you.  Don't be scared.  

Let's look at all (actually, most) of the hitters in MLB history who hit 400+ homers and accumulated 100+ WAR.  There have been exactly 13 such players.  

I excluded only 3.  Which 3, and why?

1) A-Rod - two reasons.  He is also a known PED user, and therefore not a good reference point.  Also, he is an active player so he isn't done accumulating stats.

2) Pujols.  I'll leave the PED speculation alone.  This is just because he's an active player.

3) Gehrig.  A legend who was derailed by ALS, and walked off the field at age 36.  It would be depressing to include his zeroes in these graphs.

OK, ready?

Bonds is the clear outlier here.  268 HR and 51.5 WAR...AFTER age 35?  Yeah, right.

Williams only shows such high percentages because he lost three of his peak years to World War II, lending added weight to the tail end of his career.  Aaron and Musial had pretty awesome HR production in their later years, but nothing to compare with Bonds.

My suggestion is as follows:

Apply the MEDIAN percentages from the other hitters in these graphs to Bonds.  See what we get.  That means Bonds only gets to add totals worth 15.5% for WAR (like Musial) and 19.1% for HR (like Mays) to what he had entering the year 2001.

What's the result?

Bonds would have a total of 131.4 WAR (adding 20.4 instead of 51.4) and 611 HR (adding 117 instead of 268).

This would place him 9th in WAR (assuming no further adjustments to the list) and 8th in HR (with A-Rod still third).

It's a real shame that he had such hubris and went for the records, when he could've been respected forever as a legitimate top 10 player.  Instead he'll be debated and, in many circles, disdained forever.

Phillips, Arroyo in all the major Reds all-time top 25 lists

Even including players from the 19th century, the names "Brandon Phillips" and "Bronson Arroyo" appear high on the lists for virtually all the main cumulative stats among Reds hitters and pitchers, respectively.

Close behind them, and sure to eventually overtake them in a lot of categories: Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto.

Here are all the major cumulative rankings for active players among all-time Reds hitters and pitchers:

Home Runs (all-time leader: Bench)
16th - Phillips
17th - Bruce
T-18th - Votto

Hits (all-time leader: Rose)
T-21st - Phillips
47th - Votto

Doubles (all-time leader: Rose)
20th - Phillips
23rd - Votto

RBI (all-time leader: Bench)
25th - Phillips
32nd - Votto
49th - Bruce

Stolen bases (all-time leader: McPhee)
25th - Phillips
42nd - Stubbs

Games started (all-time leader: Rixey)
12th - Arroyo
33rd - Cueto
47th - Bailey

Innings pitched (all-time leader: Rixey)
24th - Arroyo
47th - Cueto

Wins (all-time leader: Rixey)
T-22nd - Arroyo
T-39th - Cueto

Strikeouts (all-time leader: Maloney)
12th - Arroyo
22nd - Cueto
36th - Bailey

Jay Bruce's Walkoff - Not Clutch?

The funny thing about walkoff homers is they aren't always (mathematically, anyway) all that "clutch." Before I get into this discussion, two disclaimers.

1 - Jay Bruce is a great talent and (barring something unexpected) worth every bit of his contract.

2 - Bruce has had some of the most memorable moments at bat and in the field during his time in Cincinnati.

But didn't last night's home run feel a little anti-climactic? Certainly not worthy of the same level of revelry afforded to walkoffs past, let alone division-clinching walkoffs.

There are three main reasons that some (or at least I) felt this way last night.

1 (the obvious) - the Reds aren't in any kind of race, except to finish at/above .500 (which would be really nice)

2 (also obvious) - after Cordero's blown save (first since the All Star Break) it felt like the Reds should have had the game wrapped up already

3 (less obvious) - the situation was not all that dire in terms of win probability

Just a reminder...each team can have anywhere between a 0 and 1 (or 0 and 100 in percentage terms) chance of winning at any moment in the game. Because the Reds were tied and Bruce was batting in the home half of the 11th, with nobody out, and Votto already on second base, they already had an 81% chance of winning.

There were all sorts of ways for them to deal the finishing blow. While it was not an absolute guarantee (especially for the 2011 edition of the Cincinnati Reds) any fan watching was fully expecting a Reds victory after a lead-off double. All this being said, it was pretty darn exciting to defeat the hated Cubs with a bullpen-seeking missile.

I took a look at the 68 total walkoff homers in MLB during 2011. Among them, Bruce's had the third-lowest Win Probability Added (0.19). The only two lower came with the bases loaded and 1 out, meaning there was an even higher expectation of victory already (83%, so the homers resulted in 0.17 WPA).

- You may recall that Ramon Hernandez's Opening Day blast and Brandon Phillips' bomb against the Cardinals were both very clutch. In fact, they're both among the MLB top 3 for walkoff homer WPA this season, with a value of 0.91.

- This was Bruce's third career walkoff home run, and he is now the active career leader over Votto (2) and Stubbs (2)

- Tony Perez (10) has the most all-time of any Red, followed by Adam Dunn (7) and Frank Robinson (6)

A record night of home runs in Cincinnati

If you haven't had your fill of meaningless statistics yet, here come a few more.

The Reds scored all 13 runs via home run last night. The only game in history (at least verifiable on baseball-reference) to outdo that was 4/29/80 when the Brewers scored all 14 off home runs.

Of the 76 times in history that a team has homered 7+ times, the Reds are responsible for the most of any franchise (10), including 5 in the past 4 seasons. They did it three times in 2008, and of course had the July 4th massacre of the Cubs in Wrigley last year.

And the most trivial note of all...the 1 runner left on base by the Reds last night is the fewest ever by a team hitting 7 or more home runs in a game.