Cincinnati Reds: August 2012 Summary

The Reds went 19-11 in August, which was their second-best mark of 2012 (behind the 19-7 record in July).  They now sit at 81-52, with the most wins in all of baseball and only a slightly worse winning percentage than the Washington Nationals.  Because both Pittsburgh and St. Louis struggled a bit, they both fell farther behind in the NL Central.  The Reds' lead over Pittsburgh expanded from 3 to 10 games, and their lead over St. Louis from 7 to 9.5 games.
Cincinnati played 8 complete series in August, winning 5 (one sweep at Arizona), losing 2 (one sweep at Milwaukee) and splitting 1 (at Philadelphia).  At the start of the month, they also finished off a winning series at home against San Diego with two wins.  At the end of the month, they won the first game of a series in Houston.

**The Reds already have six different winning streaks of 5+ games this season, and could make it seven with a win on September 1st**

Home record: 10-5 (4-1 to finish their first stand, 5-2 in the second, then lost a series against St. Louis)
Road record: 9-6 (3-4 in the Milwaukee/Chicago trip, 2-2 in Philly, 4-0 so far in Arizona/Houston)

vs East: 4-3
vs Central: 10-8 (a little disappointing)
vs West: 5-0

Overall offensive trends: The offense continued its successful summer, in fact posting its best batting average of the year (.272) in spite of missing Votto for the entire month.  Ludwick, Rolen and Frazier continues to star.  Bruce stepped up after a mediocre July.  Heisey has emerged as a possible hope in CF after Stubbs returned to poor form after his deceiving pre-deadline surge.  The team also slugged an impressive 38 HR in 30 games, with Ludwick and Bruce providing 7 each.


Overall pitching trends: The staff actually had its worst month of the year as a whole, but the numbers were still fairly good, which goes to show how much improvement the organization has had since recent years.  Both the starters (3.96 ERA) and relievers (3.31 ERA) had their worst marks.  There were still some impressive individual performances, and they closed out the month with four straight solid outings on the road.

Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from July (20 or more OPS+ points): Cairo +65, Hanigan +55, Bruce +50, Cozart +44, Frazier +30

DOWN significantly from July (20 or more OPS+ points): Paul -163, Mesoraco -96, Valdez -81, Stubbs -67, Ludwick -22

No significant change: Rolen, Heisey, Phillips (all had good months)....Votto (still injured)

New arrivals: Dioner Navarro had only 6 hits but two were key homers.




Individual pitching trends:

UP significantly from July: Latos, Simon, Leake, Arredondo

DOWN significantly from July: LeCure, Marshall, Bailey, Arroyo (only in terms of ERA), Ondrusek

No significant change: Chapman (still dominant), Cueto (still dominant)




New arrivals: Hoover was awesome in his return, trade acquisition Broxton has been pretty solid overall, and Redmond was shaky in his fill-in start


And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of August...

RANDY HITTER: Todd Frazier.  The clear favorite for NL Rookie of the Year went .330/.393/.587 with 6 HR, 8 doubles and a team-leading 25 RBI.

Honorable mention: Ryan Ludwick, Jay Bruce

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Ryan Hanigan.  A guy with only 19 RBI on the year had 7 in August, including some very key hits (one of them a walk-off).

RANDY STARTER: Johnny Cueto.  Our ace was awesome again...4-1, 2.76, 0.85 WHIP.  38 K and only 7 walks.

Honorable mention: Mat Latos had a 2.61 ERA and insufficient run support.  Bronson Arroyo had 5 wins.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Mike Leake.

RANDY RELIEVER: Aroldis Chapman, again.  After a spotless July, allowed only one run in August.  0.68 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 18 K and 2 walks in 13 IP.  11 for 11 in save opportunities.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Jose Arredondo.  After a poor July, posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in August to return to form.

RANDY NOOB: Dioner Navarro.  Two key and unexpected homers.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Brandon Phillips.  He hates the WLBs, and he gave a hell of a performance on August 25th in helping the Reds win at least one game of the home St. Louis series.  BP went 3 for 5 with a homer and 2 important RBI in an 8-2 win.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Mike Leake.  When people looked at the Leake/Dickey matchup on August 15th, they probably didn't expect Leake to dominate it.  But he did.  In that 6-1 win, he tossed a complete game, allowing only 1 run and 4 hits.  Leake struck out 4 and didn't walk a batter.  Meanwhile, the Reds offense went yard multiple times off the knuckleballer in his support.

Aroldis Chapman, Reds Bullpen Aiming for History

Aroldis Chapman is known for two things - record-breaking heat and record-breaking strikeouts.  The Reds' 2012 bullpen, with a lot of help from Chapman, is on track to post some eye-popping numbers.

1) Chapman currently sits at 16.74 strikeouts per 9 innings.  That would be the highest rate in MLB history for any pitcher appearing in at least 25 games.

Only one other pitcher - Kenley Jansen for the Dodgers in 2011 - has ever topped 16 per 9.  Incidentally, the Braves' Craig Kimbrel is on track for a ridiculous number this year as well.  He has struck out 15.7 per 9 so far.

The Reds' Rob Dibble (in 1992) is one of only 13 previous pitchers ever to strike out more than 14 per 9 innings for a season.

2) The bullpen as a whole has struck out 10.18 batters per 9 innings.  That would be the highest rate in MLB history by any bullpen.

Only the 2010 Braves bullpen (led by Billy Wagner) ever topped 10 strikeouts per 9 innings.  They had a mark of 10.06.  The next-highest totals were posted by the 2011 White Sox and 2001 Cubs - both 9.8 per 9.

Chapman isn't the only one racking up Ks.  The other two guys in the top 3 for innings pitched in the Reds 'pen also have great strikeout rates - Sean Marshall 10.7 and Jose Arredondo 9.8.

3) The bullpen as a whole has an ERA of 2.64.  That is the best in MLB this season (by a fair margin) and it would be the best mark by any team's bullpen since the 2003 Dodgers (led by Eric Gagne's Cy Young-winning effort) posted a 2.46 ERA.

The 1942 St. Louis Cardinals had the lowest bullpen ERA ever (1.75) but the aforementioned '03 Dodgers bullpen had the best mark in comparison to the average bullpen ERA for that specific year (a remarkable 1.7 runs lower than the 2003 average).

Reds Bullpen on a Tear

FACT #1: Since Sean Marshall's unfortunate blown save against San Francisco on Thursday, April 26th, the Reds' bullpen has thrown 17 straight scoreless innings over the course of 5 games.  During that remarkable stretch, they've only allowed 6 hits and struck out 14 while walking only 6.

FACT #2:  Aroldis Chapman (13.1 innings), Logan Ondrusek (12) and JJ Hoover (4) are all yet to allow a single run (earned OR unearned) this season.  That's a combined 29.1 scoreless innings, with only 11 hits allowed.


In addition, Jose Arredondo has 10.1 scoreless IP since his only outing (in early April) where he allowed any runs.


Wow.

A Review of the Reds' April Pitching

The Reds have definitely shown some improvement on the mound in 2012.  Unfortunately, the loss of Madson has prevented this from being a truly special group of pitchers.  With him around, perhaps we'd be enjoying Chapman as a starter - likely in place of Leake, who has performed the worst in the rotation so far.

When compared to the two previous complete seasons of Cincinnati baseball, the Reds' April 2012 numbers stack up best of the group in the following categories:

ERA+ (109)
WHIP (1.29)
HR/9 (0.8)
K/BB (2.39)

BULLPEN

My grades for the relievers in April:
Chapman: A+
Ondrusek: A+
Arredondo: A
Simon: B-
LeCure: C-
Marshall: D
Bray: incomplete (injury, only 2.2 innings pitched)
Hoover: incomplete (only 3 inning pitched)

The relief corps has done very well, only allowing 23% of inherited runners to score, and holding opposing batters to a .210 average.  The only problem is that we've had to lean so heavily on the top performers. 

Aroldis Chapman and Logan Ondrusek have been absolute maniacs, with a combined 23.1 scoreless innings where they've allowed only 19 total baserunners (knock on wood).

ROTATION

I'd grade our five as follows:
Cueto: A+ 
Arroyo: A (great bounceback from 2011 so far, and we've needed it with Leake's dropoff)
Bailey: C+
Latos: D
Leake: F

It's reasonable to expect that Cueto and Bailey will finish the season roughly where they are now.  Arroyo will probably regress a bit, and hopefully both Latos and Leake (or a replacement for Leake) will improve enough to more than offset that, giving the Reds a very solid rotation.  Likely not enough to get the Reds a division title (unless they make a significant hitting acquisition), but very good nonetheless.

A few more random notes on the rotation:

OK: The starters' 1st inning ERA is about a run better than last year, but still a run worse than 2010


BAD: The batting average against our starters is the highest of the past three seasons, with only Cueto's lower than league average.

GOOD: The Reds' daytime ERA is only 3.06, meaning both our bats and our arms are best in the sunlight.  Just wish we had more day games...

BAD: The starters have only achieved 50% quality starts and are averaging only 6 innings per start, due mostly to high pitch counts.  

BAD: All five starters are striking out less than 20% of batters faced, including Latos with the worst rate of his career so far.


INDIVIDUAL STATS:


Best Win Probability Added:
Chapman 1.1
Ondrusek 0.8
Cueto 0.7


Worst WPA: 
Marshall, Leake and Latos: -0.7


Best ERA+
Cueto 273 (best of career)
Arredondo 154 (best of career)
Arroyo 141 (best since 2006)


Worst ERA+
Leake 58 (his worst of past three seasons)
Latos 64 (his worst of past three seasons)
LeCure 70 (his worst of past three seasons)


As you can see, these ERA+ numbers are all more severe in both directions than they'll ultimately be for the entirety of 2012...hopefully the positive changes outweigh the negative over the balance of the season.

Reds 7 Cubs 2: The men behind the win 9/14/11

The Reds got a solid win, and Cueto took a few hundreths of a run off his ERA, but Johnny also exited with arm trouble in the 4th. Officially, he left with a "strained right lat." Clearly there is no need for him to pitch again in 2011 if there's any injury risk, and the real concern is whether the injury is anything that might linger or (heaven forbid) require surgery in the offseason. On to tonight's heroes:

1) Ramon Hernandez. Hit a 3-run blast in the bottom of the 2nd to put the Reds on the board first. It was all the offense they'd need.

2) Juan Francisco. Went 2 for 4, played great defense, and had a 2-run single in the third to really put things away early.

3) Johnny Cueto. Only lasted 3.2 innings, but hey, he's been unreal all year, and didn't give up any runs tonight as the offense cruised to an early lead.

4) The bullpen work of Ondrusek/Masset/Arredondo...LeCure got the win, but these three held the Cubs in check through the final 3 frames.

Tomorrow in the finale it's Homer Bailey and Randy Wells.

Reds 5, Nationals 4: The Most Dangerous Canadian

The Reds got back above .500 in style with their second walk-off win of the series and a sweep of Washington. Johnny Cueto is still stuck on 9 wins in spite of his 2.05 ERA, but only positive vibes surround this team right now on its current 4-game win streak.

1) Joey Votto. A home run to begin the Reds' scoring in the 1st, and another in the bottom of the 14th. Neither one cleared the wall by much, but they all count the same. Well, a solo shot doesn't count the same as a grand slam, but you get my meaning.

2) Yonder Alonso. The guy never gets to play, but he hits and hits and hits when he does. The pinch-hit tying shot in the bottom of the 9th was ridiculously clutch.

3) Jose Arredondo. Held the Nats scoreless for 3 straight extra innings of relief (11th-13th).

4) Johnny Cueto. Scattered 9 hits over 7 innings and recorded a career-high 11 strikeouts (previously mowed down 10 twice, both times in 2008). Walked only 1, which was a welcome sight after his control problems in Miami, although he also hit two batters, so maybe that's a reach.

Honorable mention: Ryan Hanigan (reached base 5 of 6 times), BP (another multi-hit day in the leadoff spot), Bill Bray (got the win with a scoreless 14th).

Red LOBster: Jay Bruce left a whopping 8 on in one game! We'll forgive him thanks to his homer in the 4th.

The men behind the win, 8/21/11

That was huge (that's what Dusty said).

The Reds just broke an unfortunate streak of 6 consecutive road series losses (dating back to the 2-1 series victory over Tampa at the end of June). And they did so in stirring comeback fashion, after blowing a lead of their own.

This was the 9th game this month alone where the Reds tied the game and blew the lead the very next half-inning, or took a lead and blew it the very next half-inning. Obviously it didn't look good when Leake coughed up the 2-run shot to Garrett Jones, creating a 4-3 deficit in the bottom of the 6th before a brief rain delay.

Thankfully, the Reds' offense was actually up to this challenge against solid closer Joel Hanrahan, starting with a single by Frazier. Here are the players of the game:

1) Ramon Hernandez. After a Stubbs flyout and Hanigan walk to move Frazier to second, Ramon (pinch-hitting for light-hitting Paul Janish) struck the first blow of the 9th with a single to tie it at 4. Then in the bottom half, he came up just as clutch, gunning down Josh Harrison at second base for the first out. By the way: Clint Hurdle didn't like the call. That loomed even larger when Neil Walker followed with a double.

2) Jose Arredondo. 2 scoreless innings - a welcome oasis in an August desert of bullpen failures. In August he has now pitched 9.2 innings, given up only 2 runs and recorded 12 strikeouts.

3) Joey Votto. He provided the only offense prior to the 9th with a 3-run homer to right-center in the top of the 6th.

4) This one is tough, because all three of these guys had their ups and downs today, so they'll have to split the honor. Cordero got the save, BUT he almost blew it with the tying run reaching third. Phillips got the game-winning RBI, BUT it was on a fielder's choice AND he left 5 on base. Leake kept the Reds close, BUT it wasn't a quality start.

The Reds are back to 3 under .500 (62-65), 4.5 back of the Cardinals who are the only realistic target for passing this season. Now comes a day off and a trip to Miami for 3 games.

The men behind the win, 7/6/11

1) Aroldis Chapman - First career save, 1 IP, 2 K

2) Jay Bruce - 2B, HR, BB in 6 PAs. 2 R, 2 RBI

3) Jose Arredondo - 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 K

4) Chris Heisey- HR, 2 BB in 7 PAs. Set the tone for the game with his first-pitch blast.

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Fred Lewis, Sam LeCure, Nick Masset

Guys who let us down in spite of the win...

1) Bill Bray. In a rarity, he let both inherited runners score. He's only allowed that to happen 7 of 28 times this season (25%) and in fact is the only guy on the team below league average (30%) for that stat in both 2010 and 2011.

2) The SS position. No surprise here. Renteria and Janish a combined 1 for 7 with 2 strikeouts and 5 left on base.

3) Bronson Arroyo. What could have been one of his finer starts of the year turned into yet another non-quality start (he now has only 8 in 18 games this year).