Review of the Reds' April Offense

The last three seasons, the Reds have finished April with strikingly similar records:
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012


As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends.  I'll keep each summary brief.  Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split).  In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.


One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair.  Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month.  A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.




BATTING ORDER: 
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.


Leadoff:


2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)




Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49


The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.




The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season.  BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.




BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:


Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010.  Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions.  We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.


The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.


Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46


Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56




Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55


SITUATIONAL TRENDS:




Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123




Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49






Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise.  We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws.  1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term.  C and 2B should be okay.  3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds third basemen

This is the most interesting position so far. Like first base, there isn't a clear favorite. And it's also the only position other than CF without an NL MVP season from any Red. Moreover, the Cincinnati hot corner has been lacking in defensive prowess, as Scott Rolen (2010) became the first Red ever to win a Gold Glove at the position. Again, the rules: 120+ games played, at least 50% at that position. I examined conventional statistics, WAR, and awards. A lot of these decisions, especially Perez vs Rose and where to rank Groh, were very difficult.

1) Tony Perez, 1970. 6.7 WAR. First among Red 3B in HR and OPS. Second in RBI and WAR. Finished third in NL MVP voting.

2) Pete Rose, 1976. 6.7 WAR. First among Red 3B in runs, hits and batting average. Second in WAR. Finished fourth in NL MVP voting.

3) Heinie Groh, 1917. 6.9 WAR. He played in an entirely different era, so many of his counting stats don't measure up, but he really belongs in the top 3. Groh led the league in hits, doubles and OBP in 1917. This season ranks him 7th in hits and 5th in doubles among all Red third basemen.

The best of the rest:
4) Heinie Groh, 1919 - led the league in OPS, posted 6.2 WAR
5) Tony Perez, 1969 - second among Red 3B in HR, OPS. 5.6 WAR.
6) Pete Rose, 1975 - second among Red 3B in hits, doubles and walks. 4.4 WAR.
7) Deron Johnson, 1965 - first among Red 3B in RBI, fourth in MVP voting
8) Chris Sabo, 1988 - second among Red 3B in stolen bases, Rookie of the Year
9) Billy Werber, 1939 - led the league in runs scored, posted 4.5 WAR
10) Don Hoak, 1957 - third among Red 3B in OPS, led the league in doubles

Also worth mentioning:
Billy Werber, 1940 (5.0 WAR)
Chris Sabo, 1991 (4th among Red 3B in OPS, 4.1 WAR)
Heinie Groh, 1918 (led league in runs, doubles and OBP, 4.7 WAR)
Tony Perez, 1968 and 1971
Pete Rose, 1977 and 1978

wRC+ by position among Central contenders

wRC+ (weighted runs created, adjusted for park and league). If you want to compare players across positions/years/other variables, this is better than OPS+.

For each position I'll list the top 3 in MLB, and the relevant players at each position (for instance, Doumit and Snyder are injured for the Pirates so I list McKenry, who gets most of the starts now)

Catcher
Top 3 - Napoli 151, McCann 144, Hernandez 134
Central - Hernandez 134, Molina 103, Lucroy 98, Hanigan 93, McKenry 66

First base
Top 3 - Cabrera 167, Gonzalez 163, Fielder 158
Central - Fielder 158, Votto 151, Pujols 140, Overbay 83

Second base
Top 3 - Pedroia 146, Utley 142, Zobrist 138
Central - Weeks 131, Walker 104, Phillips 103, Schumaker 95

Shortstop
Top 3 - Reyes 162, Peralta 148, Cabrera 135
Central - Theriot 82, Cedeno 76, Betancourt 71, Renteria 66, Janish 42

Third base
Top 3 - Youkilis 148, Rodriguez 136, Sandoval 130
Central - Freese 123, Cairo 107, Descalso 95, Rolen 81, Alvarez 67, McGehee 60, d'Arnaud 58

Left field
Top 3 - Braun 176, Holliday 164, Johnson 149
Central - Braun 176, Holliday 164, Presley 148, Heisey 107, Gomes 103, Tabata 102, Lewis 87

Center field
Top 3 - Kemp 170, Granderson 153, Ellsbury 149
Central - McCutchen 142, Morgan 131, Stubbs 110, Rasmus 109

Right field
Top 3 - Bautista 209, Berkman 169, Beltran 153
Central - Berkman 169, Bruce 126, Jay 125, Hart 123, Jones 102

I'd say the main takeaway point is that, while shortstop and third have been major issues, left field is where we lag farthest behind the competition because that's supposed to be a position of major production. At least at short everyone else blows too, and if Cozart can get healthy we'll have a better option (in his limited time his rating was 122). At third, Frazier has potential to help us out as well.