Ranking the Reds' Starting Pitching

By median game score:
1) Cueto 62
2) Bailey 57
3) Leake 54.5
4) Willis 52
5) Wood 49.5
6) Arroyo 46
7) Volquez 44

By percentage of starts with game scores of 40+ (keeping the team in the game)
1) Cueto 91
2) Leake 88
3) Willis 83
4) Volquez 77
5) Arroyo 76
6) Wood 75
7) Bailey 68

By ERA:
1) Cueto 2.36
2) Leake 4.00
3) Bailey 4.34
4) Wood 4.92
5) Willis 5.04
6) Arroyo 5.28
7) Volquez 5.80

By xFIP:
1) Leake 3.65
2) Cueto 3.86
3) Bailey 3.89
4) Willis 4.07
5) Volquez 4.22
6) Arroyo 4.52
7) Wood 4.60

By SIERA:
1) Leake 3.57
2) Willis 4.12
3) Cueto 4.13
4) Volquez 4.26
5) Bailey 4.37
6) Wood 4.39
7) Arroyo 4.41

By WAR (extrapolated to 35 starts)
1) Cueto 4.4
2) Bailey 2.4
3) Wood 2.2
4) Leake 2.0
5) Willis 1.8
6) Volquez -0.6
7) Arroyo -1.1

Composite rankings
1) Cueto 1.5
2) Leake 2.2
3) Bailey 3.7
4) Willis 3.8
5) Wood 5.2
6) Volquez 5.5
7) Arroyo 6.2

It's funny how closely these final numbers resemble each pitcher's ideal role. Cueto has pitched like an ace, but is likely something between a 1 and a 2 on a true contender. Leake looks like a 2nd or 3rd starter. Bailey and Willis are good enough to be 4th (or 5th) starters - but Bailey really needs to reduce the percentage of very poor outings. And the other three (if they continue to pitch as they have in 2011) don't belong in the rotation.

Reds 3 Cardinals 2: The men behind the win 9/4/11

It may not mean much in light of the abomination of a series versus the Phillies which preceded it, but a series win on the Cardinals' home turf is always a welcome sight. In fact it was the first series win in St. Louis since a successful sweep in June of 2006, a span of 12 series including two sweeps, nine times that they lost 2 of 3, and one split of a 4-gamer in 2009.

The heroes today:

1) Juan Francisco. It's too early to judge but he's certainly had a nice first 4 games back in MLB. He went 4 for 5 with the game-winning, 2 out RBI today off Fernando Salas in the top of the 10th inning, ending 5 straight innings of nail-biting scoreless baseball.

2) Bronson Arroyo. A no-decision wasn't proper reward for his effort, scattering 10 hits over 8 innings and leaving the Reds tied 2-2. He struck out 5 and didn't walk a batter. Jon Jay got to him for a solo shot in the 1st, and Descalso had an RBI triple in the 4th to tie it, but Arroyo kept it that way through the next 4 innings.

3) Edgar Renteria. You know it was a slow day for offensive production (not for hits but for runs) when one of the top performers struck out three times. But his two-run dong in the top of the first off Edwin Jackson was the Reds' only regulation tally.

4) Francisco Cordero. Pitched a 1-2-3 10th inning for his 30th save.

Honorable mention to BP for going 2 for 4, getting on base 3 of 5 times in the leadoff spot, and raising his average to .301.

Red LOBster of the day: Ryan Hanigan (6 LOB). He had three different opportunities to hit with men on 1st and 3rd and 2 out (in the 6th, 8th and 10th innings) and came up empty each time.

Next up: 3 games in Chicago. In the first one, the Reds might try to get Willis a win for the first time in a Cincinnati uniform.

Bad offense, meet bad bullpen

If you watched today's game on FOX, you heard Mitch Williams blaming the Reds' woes on pitching, because that's the "intelligent" thing for an analyst to say. As I've bemoaned on this blog the past couple months, the offense has been the real problem, and it's been that way the entire season. Eliminating wins where both the offense and pitching/defense were good, and losses where both phases were bad, you get:

March/April:
3 "hitting wins" and 6 "hitting losses" Score: -3
3 "pitching wins" and 3 "pitching losses" Score: 0

May: Hitting -2, Pitching 0

June: Hitting -7, Pitching +3

July: Hitting -4, Pitching +1

August so far: Hitting -2, Pitching +2

Unfortunately, this month we've had a new problem arise: the bullpen. It performed admirably through July, and still has an ERA half a run lower than last season, but has completely fallen off the table in August with an ERA near 6.

Ondrusek, Bray, LeCure and Masset have all had an atrocious August, and even Chapman imploded in today's game. Only the much-maligned Francisco Cordero has been consistent, and Arredondo has done okay as well.

Want something positive? Although it's not, and shouldn't be, his natural spot in the order, BP has been ridiculous in his 3 games back in the leadoff spot. 9 for 13 and a walk, 1 home run and 4 RBI.

Dontrelle Willis, meanwhile, has thrown 6 quality starts among his 8 total this season, and is still winless. See what I mean about offense?

The men behind the win 7/24/11

Finally, back-to-back wins for the first time since June 15th. Only 3 games back of the three-headed beast leading the Central.

1) Drew Stubbs obviously. Second career walkoff home run (also second career walkoff hit of any kind). Scored twice.

2) Aroldis Chapman. Huge performance to keep things tied.

3) Brandon Phillips. Early lead from his blast was nice, even if it didn't last.

4) Dontrelle Willis. All three of his outings have gone similarly...great innings, scary innings, all in all an okay start. He's not the potential ace he once was, but no one expects that anyway. If he can keep the team in the game the way he has so far, that's all we can ask.

Reds/Brewers pitching matchups

Just like last season, we head into the break with a tough 4-game road series. While I don't expect this to be as brutal as the Philadelphia series last season, Milwaukee is still an absurd 30-13 at home. Here's a look at what to expect:

Homer Bailey (3-3, 3.64) vs Chris Narveson (5-5, 4.86) in Game 1.

I'd rate this one the second easiest of the series to win, and obviously the most important since it starts things off. There have been only 3 series we played all year where the winner of game 1 didn't go on to win the series. Bailey's career stats against the Brewers aren't great (0-2, 5.36 in 7 starts) but he got only 4 NDs against them in 2010 with a 3.38 ERA, and in limited starts has been pretty solid overall this season. Narveson is trash, and hopefully he gets another pounding (0-3, 7.06 against the Reds).

Mike Leake (8-4, 4.03) vs Zach Greinke (7-3, 5.66)

In my opinion this is the second most difficult game. Leake has been pretty good (second only to Cueto in giving us consistent quality outings) but Greinke is tough, and tough on the Reds. Leake is 0-0, 3.46 versus the Brewers in 2 starts, both this season. Greinke is 2-0, 3.00 against the Reds - 1 complete game with the Royals, 1 game earlier this year where we had him on the ropes early and he settled down to cruise through 6 with only 2 runs given up.

Johnny Cueto (5-3, 1.77) vs Shaun Marcum (7-3, 3.32)

Cueto again gets some poor luck going against a guy who might shut us down, but I still feel safest with Johnny on the mound. Marcum is 0-1, 3.86 agains the Reds in two starts.

Edinson Volquez (5-4, 5.93) vs Randy Wolf (6-6, 3.72)

I really wish Willis were getting this start. I imagine this is Volquez's last chance not to get the hook in Willis' favor if he implodes again, but I am not looking forward to heading into the ASB off another Edinson disaster. Randy Wolf is a pitcher you always feel like should be easier to beat, but somehow year after year he puts up pretty respectable numbers. Worse news is that he has pretty much dominated Cincinnati, 10-4 all-time with a 3.44 ERA. The Reds did have some great success against him in the only meeting this season, racking up 6 runs in 4 innings of a 12-3 win.

My prediction: W-L-W-L, but all four games could go either way.