For the Cincinnati Reds, recent series finales have not been an enjoyable experience.
For the season, the Reds are 11-11 in the final game of a series (even though their record in those series as a whole is 13-9). However, they have now lost 5 straight finales, and 7 of the last 9.
Of those 7 losses, 6 were in brutal fashion - they blew a lead of at least 2 runs in each, and lost in the final at-bat in 5 of those 6 (including 4 extra-inning defeats).
It's easy to blame the bullpen, because their recent ineptitude has certainly been a large part of the problem. With a June ERA of 6.69, they are more than partially responsible for the Reds' 0-4 record in series-finishing games this month.
The narrative in the six crushing finale defeats, all involving significant blown leads and occurring since mid-May, has been as follows:
5/19 at Philadelphia (lost 3-2): Chapman blew it in the 9th, giving up back-to-back homers.
5/26 vs. Chicago (lost 5-4 in 10 innings): Ondrusek melted down to blow the lead, and Hoover lost it in extras.
6/1 at Pittsburgh (lost 5-4 in 11 innings): Broxton had another Pittsburgh disaster to blow the lead, and then Simon couldn't hold on in extras.
6/5 vs. Colorado (lost 12-4): After Villarreal's poor start, the Reds still had a chance - that is, until Simon and Parra yielded 3 runs apiece to put it out of reach.
6/9 vs. St. Louis (lost 11-4 in 10 innings): LeCure blew the lead in the 7th, and Hoover imploded in the 10th.
6/13 at Chicago (lost 6-5 in 14 innings): LeCure blew the lead in the 8th, and Broxton lost it in the 14th.
If the narratives above are in line with your thinking, you would have some strong statistical backing. After all, the bullpen ERA in the six games listed above was a hideous 8.68 (27 total earned runs in 28 innings pitched).
However, I would submit that the offense deserves equal blame. To support my case, let me point out the fact that the Reds went scoreless from the time of their biggest lead until the end of the game in all six of the games in question.
Specifically, here is what the offense managed in each case after racing out to a lead:
5/19 at Philadelphia - 3 straight scoreless innings after leading 2-0
5/26 vs. Chicago - 6 straight scoreless innings after leading 4-0
6/1 at Pittsburgh - 10 straight scoreless innings after leading 4-0
6/5 vs. Colorado - 8 straight scoreless innings after leading 4-1
6/9 vs. St. Louis - 5 straight scoreless innings after leading 4-2
6/13 at Chicago - 8 straight scoreless innings after leading 5-3
If the offense goes into such a prolonged slumber (as if to say, "we've done our job, game over") it puts immense pressure on the pitching staff. 40 straight combined scoreless innings, in my opinion, are of equal consequence relative to the bullpen's failures.
You might notice that I'm leaving criticism of managerial decisions out of this equation. That is a deliberate decision on my part because it is impossible to know what would have happened in an alternative universe. I am of the opinion that Dusty deserves some blame for the way a few games have gone this season, but because there is no way to statistically judge his influence, I choose to keep this discussion simpler: is the hitting or the pitching to blame?
To summarize, I would assign blame as follows:
5/19 at Philadelphia - Chapman (just had a poor game, which is bound to happen now and then)
5/26 vs. Chicago - The offense. All they had to do was score 1 additional run against the Cubs pen to avoid extras.
6/1 at Pittsburgh - The offense. 10 straight scoreless innings.
6/5 vs. Colorado - The starting pitching. Forced into action because of Cueto's second injury of the year, Pedro Villarreal never stood much of a chance against the Rockies' powerful lineup.
6/9 vs. St. Louis - The offense and the bullpen are equally to blame for this one. I'll break my own rule and mention Dusty here too, because excessive (and poorly-executed) bunting played a big role in the Reds not securing this victory.
6/13 at Chicago - The offense. 8 straight scoreless innings. Even 1 run through those first 7 would've been enough to win it.
At the moment, this is a somewhat alarming trend. And if the Reds had gone 3-3 in these games - you're bound to lose a few painful ones during a 162-game season, but not THIS many - they would be only a half game behind St. Louis instead of 3.5.
Three of the losses (at Philadelphia, vs. Colorado, vs. St. Louis) were in deciding games and the other three prevented the Reds from completing a sweep.
Here's hoping the Reds can turn around their finale fortunes, starting this Sunday at GABP against Milwaukee.
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Showing posts with label aroldis chapman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label aroldis chapman. Show all posts
Friday, June 14, 2013
Saturday, September 1, 2012
Cincinnati Reds: August 2012 Summary
The Reds went 19-11 in August, which was their second-best mark of 2012 (behind the 19-7 record in July). They now sit at 81-52, with the most wins in all of baseball and only a slightly worse winning percentage than the Washington Nationals. Because both Pittsburgh and St. Louis struggled a bit, they both fell farther behind in the NL Central. The Reds' lead over Pittsburgh expanded from 3 to 10 games, and their lead over St. Louis from 7 to 9.5 games.
Cincinnati played 8 complete series in August, winning 5 (one sweep at Arizona), losing 2 (one sweep at Milwaukee) and splitting 1 (at Philadelphia). At the start of the month, they also finished off a winning series at home against San Diego with two wins. At the end of the month, they won the first game of a series in Houston.
**The Reds already have six different winning streaks of 5+ games this season, and could make it seven with a win on September 1st**
Home record: 10-5 (4-1 to finish their first stand, 5-2 in the second, then lost a series against St. Louis)
Road record: 9-6 (3-4 in the Milwaukee/Chicago trip, 2-2 in Philly, 4-0 so far in Arizona/Houston)
vs East: 4-3
vs Central: 10-8 (a little disappointing)
vs West: 5-0
Overall offensive trends: The offense continued its successful summer, in fact posting its best batting average of the year (.272) in spite of missing Votto for the entire month. Ludwick, Rolen and Frazier continues to star. Bruce stepped up after a mediocre July. Heisey has emerged as a possible hope in CF after Stubbs returned to poor form after his deceiving pre-deadline surge. The team also slugged an impressive 38 HR in 30 games, with Ludwick and Bruce providing 7 each.
Overall pitching trends: The staff actually had its worst month of the year as a whole, but the numbers were still fairly good, which goes to show how much improvement the organization has had since recent years. Both the starters (3.96 ERA) and relievers (3.31 ERA) had their worst marks. There were still some impressive individual performances, and they closed out the month with four straight solid outings on the road.
Individual hitting trends:
UP significantly from July (20 or more OPS+ points): Cairo +65, Hanigan +55, Bruce +50, Cozart +44, Frazier +30
DOWN significantly from July (20 or more OPS+ points): Paul -163, Mesoraco -96, Valdez -81, Stubbs -67, Ludwick -22
No significant change: Rolen, Heisey, Phillips (all had good months)....Votto (still injured)
New arrivals: Dioner Navarro had only 6 hits but two were key homers.
Individual pitching trends:
UP significantly from July: Latos, Simon, Leake, Arredondo
DOWN significantly from July: LeCure, Marshall, Bailey, Arroyo (only in terms of ERA), Ondrusek
No significant change: Chapman (still dominant), Cueto (still dominant)
New arrivals: Hoover was awesome in his return, trade acquisition Broxton has been pretty solid overall, and Redmond was shaky in his fill-in start
And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of August...
Cincinnati played 8 complete series in August, winning 5 (one sweep at Arizona), losing 2 (one sweep at Milwaukee) and splitting 1 (at Philadelphia). At the start of the month, they also finished off a winning series at home against San Diego with two wins. At the end of the month, they won the first game of a series in Houston.
**The Reds already have six different winning streaks of 5+ games this season, and could make it seven with a win on September 1st**
Home record: 10-5 (4-1 to finish their first stand, 5-2 in the second, then lost a series against St. Louis)
Road record: 9-6 (3-4 in the Milwaukee/Chicago trip, 2-2 in Philly, 4-0 so far in Arizona/Houston)
vs East: 4-3
vs Central: 10-8 (a little disappointing)
vs West: 5-0
Overall offensive trends: The offense continued its successful summer, in fact posting its best batting average of the year (.272) in spite of missing Votto for the entire month. Ludwick, Rolen and Frazier continues to star. Bruce stepped up after a mediocre July. Heisey has emerged as a possible hope in CF after Stubbs returned to poor form after his deceiving pre-deadline surge. The team also slugged an impressive 38 HR in 30 games, with Ludwick and Bruce providing 7 each.
Overall pitching trends: The staff actually had its worst month of the year as a whole, but the numbers were still fairly good, which goes to show how much improvement the organization has had since recent years. Both the starters (3.96 ERA) and relievers (3.31 ERA) had their worst marks. There were still some impressive individual performances, and they closed out the month with four straight solid outings on the road.
Individual hitting trends:
UP significantly from July (20 or more OPS+ points): Cairo +65, Hanigan +55, Bruce +50, Cozart +44, Frazier +30
DOWN significantly from July (20 or more OPS+ points): Paul -163, Mesoraco -96, Valdez -81, Stubbs -67, Ludwick -22
No significant change: Rolen, Heisey, Phillips (all had good months)....Votto (still injured)
New arrivals: Dioner Navarro had only 6 hits but two were key homers.
Individual pitching trends:
UP significantly from July: Latos, Simon, Leake, Arredondo
DOWN significantly from July: LeCure, Marshall, Bailey, Arroyo (only in terms of ERA), Ondrusek
No significant change: Chapman (still dominant), Cueto (still dominant)
New arrivals: Hoover was awesome in his return, trade acquisition Broxton has been pretty solid overall, and Redmond was shaky in his fill-in start
And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of August...
RANDY HITTER: Todd Frazier. The clear favorite for NL Rookie of the Year went .330/.393/.587 with 6 HR, 8 doubles and a team-leading 25 RBI.
Honorable mention: Ryan Ludwick, Jay Bruce
RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Ryan Hanigan. A guy with only 19 RBI on the year had 7 in August, including some very key hits (one of them a walk-off).
RANDY STARTER: Johnny Cueto. Our ace was awesome again...4-1, 2.76, 0.85 WHIP. 38 K and only 7 walks.
Honorable mention: Mat Latos had a 2.61 ERA and insufficient run support. Bronson Arroyo had 5 wins.
RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Mike Leake.
RANDY RELIEVER: Aroldis
Chapman, again. After a spotless July, allowed only one run in August. 0.68 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 18 K and 2 walks in 13 IP. 11 for 11 in save opportunities.
RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Jose Arredondo. After a poor July, posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in August to return to form.
RANDY NOOB: Dioner Navarro. Two key and unexpected homers.
RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Brandon Phillips. He hates the WLBs, and he gave a hell of a performance on August 25th in helping the Reds win at least one game of the home St. Louis series. BP went 3 for 5 with a homer and 2 important RBI in an 8-2 win.
RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Mike Leake. When people looked at the Leake/Dickey matchup on August 15th, they probably didn't expect Leake to dominate it. But he did. In that 6-1 win, he tossed a complete game, allowing only 1 run and 4 hits. Leake struck out 4 and didn't walk a batter. Meanwhile, the Reds offense went yard multiple times off the knuckleballer in his support.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Top 20 Shutdown Relief Pitching Seasons in MLB History
Only 30 individual relief pitching seasons in MLB history meet all of the following requirements:
- at least 60 innings pitched
- an ERA+ of 250 or higher
- a WHIP of 0.90 or lower
- WAR of 3 or more
- K/BB ratio of 3 or higher
All but four of those occurred since 1990, which isn't surprising because of the increased specialization of relief pitchers, with special emphasis on having a "shutdown closer."
Appearing multiple times on the list:
Bryan Harvey - 1991 with the Angels, 1993 with the Marlins
Craig Kimbrel - 2012 and 2013 with the Braves
Joe Nathan - 2006 with the Twins, 2013 with the Rangers
Mariano Rivera - 2005 and 2008 with the Yankees
I wanted to make a list of the best shutdown seasons ever, factoring in the categories listed above as well as K/9 and OPS+ against. You might notice (and even, possibly, object) that I'm neglecting saves. Sorry, but the stat is almost completely meaningless.
Here are my top 20 shutdown relief seasons in MLB history....
1) Craig Kimbrel, 2012 Atlanta Braves
IP: 62.2
ERA+: 399 (4th)
WHIP: 0.654 (3rd)
WAR: 3.3 (24th)
K/9: 16.66 (1st)
K/BB: 8.29 (6th)
OPS+ against: 1 (1st)
Total ranking points: 39
Traditional stats: 3-1, 42 saves, 1.01 ERA
2) Eric Gagne, 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers
He won the NL Cy Young for this season, and rightfully so.
IP: 82.1
ERA+: 337 (10th on the list)
WHIP: 0.692 (5th)
WAR: 3.6 (14th)
K/9: 14.98 (3rd)
K/BB: 6.85 (7th)
OPS+ against: 4 (2nd)
Total ranking points: 41
Traditional stats: 2-3, 55 saves, 1.20 ERA
3) Koji Uehara, 2013 Boston Red Sox
IP: 74.1
ERA+: 379 (7th)
WHIP: 0.565 (1st)
WAR: 3.6 (18th)
K/9: 12.23 (10th)
K/BB: 11.22 (3rd)
OPS+ against: 8 (3rd)
Total ranking points: 42
Traditional stats: 4-1, 21 saves, 1.09 ERA
4) Mariano Rivera, 2008 New York Yankees.
Incredibly, he never won a Cy Young.
IP: 70.2
ERA+: 316 (17th)
WHIP: 0.665 (4th)
WAR: 4.3 (3rd)
K/9: 9.81 (21st)
K/BB: 12.83 (2nd)
OPS+ against: 10 (5th)
Total ranking points: 52
Traditional stats: 6-5, 39 saves, 1.40 ERA
5) Jonathan Papelbon, 2006 Boston Red Sox.
IP: 68.1
ERA+: 517 (3rd)
WHIP: 0.776 (9th)
WAR: 5.0 (2nd)
K/9: 9.88 (20th)
K/BB: 5.77 (12th)
OPS+ against: 18 (12th)
Total ranking points: 58
Traditional stats: 4-2, 35 saves, 0.92 ERA
6) Dennis Eckersley, 1990 Oakland Athletics.
He won a Cy two years later, but this year was better.
IP: 73.1
ERA+: 603 (2nd)
WHIP: 0.614 (2nd)
WAR: 3.3 (27th)
K/9: 8.96 (26th)
K/BB: 18.25 (1st)
OPS+ against: 13 (6th)
Total ranking points: 64
Traditional stats: 4-2, 48 saves, 0.61 ERA
7) J.J. Putz, 2007 Seattle Mariners
IP: 71.2
ERA+: 319 (15th)
WHIP: 0.698 (6th)
WAR: 4.0 (8th)
K/9: 10.30 (17th)
K/BB: 6.31 (8th)
OPS+ against: 21 (14th)
Total ranking points: 68
Traditional stats: 6-1, 40 saves, 1.38 ERA
8) Billy Wagner, 1999 Houston Astros
IP: 74.2
ERA+: 287 (23rd)
WHIP: 0.777 (10th)
WAR: 3.8 (11th)
K/9: 14.95 (4th)
K/BB: 5.39 (17th)
OPS+ against: 10 (4th)
Total ranking points: 69
Traditional stats: 4-1, 39 saves, 1.57 ERA
9) Wade Davis, 2014 Kansas City Royals
IP: 72.0
ERA+: 399 (4th)
WHIP: 0.847 (17th)
WAR: 3.7 (16th)
K/9: 13.63 (6th)
K/BB: 4.74 (21st)
OPS+ against: 16 (8th)
Total ranking points: 72
Traditional stats: 9-2, 3 savs, 1.00 ERA
10) Fernando Rodney, 2012 Tampa Bay Rays
IP: 74.2
ERA+: 641 (1st)
WHIP: 0.777 (10th)
WAR: 3.8 (11th)
K/9: 9.16 (24th)
K/BB: 5.07 (19th)
OPS+ against: 18 (10th)
Total ranking points: 75
Traditional stats: 2-2, 48 saves, 0.60 ERA
11) Takashi Saito, 2007 Los Angeles Dodgers
IP: 64.1
ERA+: 319 (16th)
WHIP: 0.715 (7th)
WAR: 3.5 (20th)
K/9: 10.91 (13th)
K/BB: 6.00 (9th)
OPS+ against: 19 (13th)
Total ranking points: 78
Traditional stats: 2-1, 39 saves, 1.40 ERA
12) Rafael Betancourt, 2007 Cleveland Indians
IP: 79.1
ERA+: 307 (21st)
WHIP: 0.756 (8th)
WAR: 4.3 (4th)
K/9: 9.08 (25th)
K/BB: 8.89 (5th)
OPS+ against: 26 (19th)
Total ranking points: 82
Traditional stats: 5-1, 3 saves, 1.47 ERA
13) Bruce Sutter, 1977 Chicago Cubs
Like Eckersley, he won a Cy two years after his true best season.
IP: 107.1
ERA+: 328 (13th)
WHIP: 0.857 (19th)
WAR: 6.5 (1st)
K/9: 10.82 (14th)
K/BB: 5.61 (16th)
OPS+ against: 31 (23rd)
Total ranking points: 86
Traditional stats: 7-3, 31 saves, 1.34 ERA
14) Dellin Betances, 2014 New York Yankees
IP: 90.0
ERA+: 277 (25th)
WHIP: 0.778 (12th)
WAR: 3.7 (15th)
K/9: 13.50 (7th)
K/BB: 5.63 (14th)
OPS+ against: 26 (18th)
Total ranking points: 91
Traditional stats: 5-0, 1 save, 1.40 ERA
15) Joe Nathan, 2006 Minnesota Twins
IP: 68.1
ERA+: 284 (24th)
WHIP: 0.790 (14th)
WAR: 3.3 (25th)
K/9: 12.51 (9th)
K/BB: 5.94 (10th)
OPS+ against: 18 (12th)
Total ranking points: 94
Traditional stats: 7-0, 36 saves, 1.58 ERA
16) Aroldis Chapman, 2012 Cincinnati Reds
IP: 71.2
ERA+: 274 (26th)
WHIP: 0.809 (15th)
WAR: 3.6 (19th)
K/9: 15.32 (2nd)
K/BB: 5.30 (18th)
OPS+ against: 25 (15th)
Total ranking points: 95
Traditional stats: 5-5, 38 stats, 1.51 ERA
17) B.J. Ryan, 2006 Toronto Blue Jays
IP: 72.1
ERA+: 335 (11th)
WHIP: 0.857 (20th)
WAR: 3.5 (21st)
K/9: 10.70 (15th)
K/BB: 4.30 (24th)
OPS+ against: 17 (9th)
Total ranking points: 100
Traditional stats: 2-2, 38 saves, 1.37 ERA
18) Hung-Chih Kuo, 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers
IP: 60
ERA+: 324 (14th)
WHIP: 0.783 (13th)
WAR: 3.1 (29th)
K/9: 10.95 (12th)
K/BB: 4.06 (27th)
OPS+ against: 15 (7th)
Total ranking points: 102
Traditional stats: 3-2, 12 saves, 1.20 ERA
19) Greg Holland, 2013 Kansas City Royals
IP: 67
ERA+: 342 (9th)
WHIP: 0.866 (23rd)
WAR: 3.1 (30th)
K/9: 13.84 (5th)
K/BB: 5.72 (13th)
OPS+ against: 31 (24th)
Total ranking points: 104
Traditional stats: 2-1, 47 saves, 1.21 ERA
20) John Smoltz, 2003 Atlanta Braves
IP: 64.1
ERA+: 385 (6th)
WHIP: 0.870 (25th)
WAR: 3.3 (26th)
K/9: 10.21 (18th)
K/BB: 9.13 (4th)
OPS+ against: 36 (27th)
Total ranking points: 106
Traditional stats: 0-2, 45 saves, 1.12 ERA
Not good enough for the top 20:
1993 Harvey (108 points)
1998 Trevor Hoffman (116 points)
2005 Rivera (117 points)
1991 Harvey (121 points)
1987 Tim Burke (123 points)
1981 Rollie Fingers (125 points)
2013 Kimbrel (130 points)
1998 Michael Jackson (140 points)
2008 Joakim Soria (145 points)
2013 Nathan (149 points)
- at least 60 innings pitched
- an ERA+ of 250 or higher
- a WHIP of 0.90 or lower
- WAR of 3 or more
- K/BB ratio of 3 or higher
All but four of those occurred since 1990, which isn't surprising because of the increased specialization of relief pitchers, with special emphasis on having a "shutdown closer."
Appearing multiple times on the list:
Bryan Harvey - 1991 with the Angels, 1993 with the Marlins
Craig Kimbrel - 2012 and 2013 with the Braves
Joe Nathan - 2006 with the Twins, 2013 with the Rangers
Mariano Rivera - 2005 and 2008 with the Yankees
I wanted to make a list of the best shutdown seasons ever, factoring in the categories listed above as well as K/9 and OPS+ against. You might notice (and even, possibly, object) that I'm neglecting saves. Sorry, but the stat is almost completely meaningless.
Here are my top 20 shutdown relief seasons in MLB history....
1) Craig Kimbrel, 2012 Atlanta Braves
IP: 62.2
ERA+: 399 (4th)
WHIP: 0.654 (3rd)
WAR: 3.3 (24th)
K/9: 16.66 (1st)
K/BB: 8.29 (6th)
OPS+ against: 1 (1st)
Total ranking points: 39
Traditional stats: 3-1, 42 saves, 1.01 ERA
2) Eric Gagne, 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers
He won the NL Cy Young for this season, and rightfully so.
IP: 82.1
ERA+: 337 (10th on the list)
WHIP: 0.692 (5th)
WAR: 3.6 (14th)
K/9: 14.98 (3rd)
K/BB: 6.85 (7th)
OPS+ against: 4 (2nd)
Total ranking points: 41
Traditional stats: 2-3, 55 saves, 1.20 ERA
3) Koji Uehara, 2013 Boston Red Sox
IP: 74.1
ERA+: 379 (7th)
WHIP: 0.565 (1st)
WAR: 3.6 (18th)
K/9: 12.23 (10th)
K/BB: 11.22 (3rd)
OPS+ against: 8 (3rd)
Total ranking points: 42
Traditional stats: 4-1, 21 saves, 1.09 ERA
4) Mariano Rivera, 2008 New York Yankees.
Incredibly, he never won a Cy Young.
IP: 70.2
ERA+: 316 (17th)
WHIP: 0.665 (4th)
WAR: 4.3 (3rd)
K/9: 9.81 (21st)
K/BB: 12.83 (2nd)
OPS+ against: 10 (5th)
Total ranking points: 52
Traditional stats: 6-5, 39 saves, 1.40 ERA
5) Jonathan Papelbon, 2006 Boston Red Sox.
IP: 68.1
ERA+: 517 (3rd)
WHIP: 0.776 (9th)
WAR: 5.0 (2nd)
K/9: 9.88 (20th)
K/BB: 5.77 (12th)
OPS+ against: 18 (12th)
Total ranking points: 58
Traditional stats: 4-2, 35 saves, 0.92 ERA
6) Dennis Eckersley, 1990 Oakland Athletics.
He won a Cy two years later, but this year was better.
IP: 73.1
ERA+: 603 (2nd)
WHIP: 0.614 (2nd)
WAR: 3.3 (27th)
K/9: 8.96 (26th)
K/BB: 18.25 (1st)
OPS+ against: 13 (6th)
Total ranking points: 64
Traditional stats: 4-2, 48 saves, 0.61 ERA
7) J.J. Putz, 2007 Seattle Mariners
IP: 71.2
ERA+: 319 (15th)
WHIP: 0.698 (6th)
WAR: 4.0 (8th)
K/9: 10.30 (17th)
K/BB: 6.31 (8th)
OPS+ against: 21 (14th)
Total ranking points: 68
Traditional stats: 6-1, 40 saves, 1.38 ERA
8) Billy Wagner, 1999 Houston Astros
IP: 74.2
ERA+: 287 (23rd)
WHIP: 0.777 (10th)
WAR: 3.8 (11th)
K/9: 14.95 (4th)
K/BB: 5.39 (17th)
OPS+ against: 10 (4th)
Total ranking points: 69
Traditional stats: 4-1, 39 saves, 1.57 ERA
9) Wade Davis, 2014 Kansas City Royals
IP: 72.0
ERA+: 399 (4th)
WHIP: 0.847 (17th)
WAR: 3.7 (16th)
K/9: 13.63 (6th)
K/BB: 4.74 (21st)
OPS+ against: 16 (8th)
Total ranking points: 72
Traditional stats: 9-2, 3 savs, 1.00 ERA
10) Fernando Rodney, 2012 Tampa Bay Rays
IP: 74.2
ERA+: 641 (1st)
WHIP: 0.777 (10th)
WAR: 3.8 (11th)
K/9: 9.16 (24th)
K/BB: 5.07 (19th)
OPS+ against: 18 (10th)
Total ranking points: 75
Traditional stats: 2-2, 48 saves, 0.60 ERA
11) Takashi Saito, 2007 Los Angeles Dodgers
IP: 64.1
ERA+: 319 (16th)
WHIP: 0.715 (7th)
WAR: 3.5 (20th)
K/9: 10.91 (13th)
K/BB: 6.00 (9th)
OPS+ against: 19 (13th)
Total ranking points: 78
Traditional stats: 2-1, 39 saves, 1.40 ERA
12) Rafael Betancourt, 2007 Cleveland Indians
IP: 79.1
ERA+: 307 (21st)
WHIP: 0.756 (8th)
WAR: 4.3 (4th)
K/9: 9.08 (25th)
K/BB: 8.89 (5th)
OPS+ against: 26 (19th)
Total ranking points: 82
Traditional stats: 5-1, 3 saves, 1.47 ERA
13) Bruce Sutter, 1977 Chicago Cubs
Like Eckersley, he won a Cy two years after his true best season.
IP: 107.1
ERA+: 328 (13th)
WHIP: 0.857 (19th)
WAR: 6.5 (1st)
K/9: 10.82 (14th)
K/BB: 5.61 (16th)
OPS+ against: 31 (23rd)
Total ranking points: 86
Traditional stats: 7-3, 31 saves, 1.34 ERA
14) Dellin Betances, 2014 New York Yankees
IP: 90.0
ERA+: 277 (25th)
WHIP: 0.778 (12th)
WAR: 3.7 (15th)
K/9: 13.50 (7th)
K/BB: 5.63 (14th)
OPS+ against: 26 (18th)
Total ranking points: 91
Traditional stats: 5-0, 1 save, 1.40 ERA
15) Joe Nathan, 2006 Minnesota Twins
IP: 68.1
ERA+: 284 (24th)
WHIP: 0.790 (14th)
WAR: 3.3 (25th)
K/9: 12.51 (9th)
K/BB: 5.94 (10th)
OPS+ against: 18 (12th)
Total ranking points: 94
Traditional stats: 7-0, 36 saves, 1.58 ERA
16) Aroldis Chapman, 2012 Cincinnati Reds
IP: 71.2
ERA+: 274 (26th)
WHIP: 0.809 (15th)
WAR: 3.6 (19th)
K/9: 15.32 (2nd)
K/BB: 5.30 (18th)
OPS+ against: 25 (15th)
Total ranking points: 95
Traditional stats: 5-5, 38 stats, 1.51 ERA
17) B.J. Ryan, 2006 Toronto Blue Jays
IP: 72.1
ERA+: 335 (11th)
WHIP: 0.857 (20th)
WAR: 3.5 (21st)
K/9: 10.70 (15th)
K/BB: 4.30 (24th)
OPS+ against: 17 (9th)
Total ranking points: 100
Traditional stats: 2-2, 38 saves, 1.37 ERA
18) Hung-Chih Kuo, 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers
IP: 60
ERA+: 324 (14th)
WHIP: 0.783 (13th)
WAR: 3.1 (29th)
K/9: 10.95 (12th)
K/BB: 4.06 (27th)
OPS+ against: 15 (7th)
Total ranking points: 102
Traditional stats: 3-2, 12 saves, 1.20 ERA
19) Greg Holland, 2013 Kansas City Royals
IP: 67
ERA+: 342 (9th)
WHIP: 0.866 (23rd)
WAR: 3.1 (30th)
K/9: 13.84 (5th)
K/BB: 5.72 (13th)
OPS+ against: 31 (24th)
Total ranking points: 104
Traditional stats: 2-1, 47 saves, 1.21 ERA
20) John Smoltz, 2003 Atlanta Braves
IP: 64.1
ERA+: 385 (6th)
WHIP: 0.870 (25th)
WAR: 3.3 (26th)
K/9: 10.21 (18th)
K/BB: 9.13 (4th)
OPS+ against: 36 (27th)
Total ranking points: 106
Traditional stats: 0-2, 45 saves, 1.12 ERA
Not good enough for the top 20:
1993 Harvey (108 points)
1998 Trevor Hoffman (116 points)
2005 Rivera (117 points)
1991 Harvey (121 points)
1987 Tim Burke (123 points)
1981 Rollie Fingers (125 points)
2013 Kimbrel (130 points)
1998 Michael Jackson (140 points)
2008 Joakim Soria (145 points)
2013 Nathan (149 points)
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Aroldis Chapman, Reds Bullpen Aiming for History
Aroldis Chapman is known for two things - record-breaking heat and record-breaking strikeouts. The Reds' 2012 bullpen, with a lot of help from Chapman, is on track to post some eye-popping numbers.
1) Chapman currently sits at 16.74 strikeouts per 9 innings. That would be the highest rate in MLB history for any pitcher appearing in at least 25 games.
Only one other pitcher - Kenley Jansen for the Dodgers in 2011 - has ever topped 16 per 9. Incidentally, the Braves' Craig Kimbrel is on track for a ridiculous number this year as well. He has struck out 15.7 per 9 so far.
The Reds' Rob Dibble (in 1992) is one of only 13 previous pitchers ever to strike out more than 14 per 9 innings for a season.
2) The bullpen as a whole has struck out 10.18 batters per 9 innings. That would be the highest rate in MLB history by any bullpen.
Only the 2010 Braves bullpen (led by Billy Wagner) ever topped 10 strikeouts per 9 innings. They had a mark of 10.06. The next-highest totals were posted by the 2011 White Sox and 2001 Cubs - both 9.8 per 9.
Chapman isn't the only one racking up Ks. The other two guys in the top 3 for innings pitched in the Reds 'pen also have great strikeout rates - Sean Marshall 10.7 and Jose Arredondo 9.8.
The 1942 St. Louis Cardinals had the lowest bullpen ERA ever (1.75) but the aforementioned '03 Dodgers bullpen had the best mark in comparison to the average bullpen ERA for that specific year (a remarkable 1.7 runs lower than the 2003 average).
1) Chapman currently sits at 16.74 strikeouts per 9 innings. That would be the highest rate in MLB history for any pitcher appearing in at least 25 games.
The Reds' Rob Dibble (in 1992) is one of only 13 previous pitchers ever to strike out more than 14 per 9 innings for a season.
2) The bullpen as a whole has struck out 10.18 batters per 9 innings. That would be the highest rate in MLB history by any bullpen.
Only the 2010 Braves bullpen (led by Billy Wagner) ever topped 10 strikeouts per 9 innings. They had a mark of 10.06. The next-highest totals were posted by the 2011 White Sox and 2001 Cubs - both 9.8 per 9.
Chapman isn't the only one racking up Ks. The other two guys in the top 3 for innings pitched in the Reds 'pen also have great strikeout rates - Sean Marshall 10.7 and Jose Arredondo 9.8.
3) The bullpen as a whole has an ERA of 2.64. That is the best in MLB this season (by a fair margin) and it would be the best mark by any team's bullpen since the 2003 Dodgers (led by Eric Gagne's Cy Young-winning effort) posted a 2.46 ERA.
The 1942 St. Louis Cardinals had the lowest bullpen ERA ever (1.75) but the aforementioned '03 Dodgers bullpen had the best mark in comparison to the average bullpen ERA for that specific year (a remarkable 1.7 runs lower than the 2003 average).
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Cincinnati Reds: July 2012 Summary
The Reds went a ridiculous 19-7 in July (including the first 10-game winning streak since 1999) to remain in
first place in the NL Central with an overall record of 62-41. When
the month began, they led Pittsburgh by 1 game. In spite of Cincinnati's torrid pace, Pittsburgh barely lost any ground - they only trail by 3 games. The Reds' lead over St. Louis expanded from 3.5 to 7 games.
Cincinnati won 5 series (including 4 sweeps), lost 1 (at the Dodgers) and split 1 (at home against the Diamondbacks).
**From July 6th through July 29th, their record was an astonishing 17-2.**
Home record: 9-3 (8-2 on the only completed home stand, 1-1 ongoing)
Road record: 10-4 (4-4 to finish their 5-6 West Coast trip, 6-0 on their second trip)
vs West: 10-7
vs Central: 9-0 (nice!)
Overall offensive trends: The offense stepped up admirably in Joey's absence (he missed 15 of the 26 games). The batting average dipped only 3 points from June to .262, and the OBP only 9 points to .323. Five players trended up significantly in OPS+, five trended down, and three stayed about the same. Ryan Ludwick was phenomenal, Rolen showed a surprising return to old form, and Xavier Paul provided some unexpected help as well.
Overall pitching trends: The staff was outstanding, and the main reason that the team was able to weather the Votto-less storm. The overall ERA was 3.03 (the best of the year). After an already-solid June, the rotation boasted even better stats, going 14-5 with a 3.29 ERA. In June, Aroldis was the only problem in the bullpen. The exact opposite was true in July, when he was virtually the only dominant force. Relievers not named Chapman posted a 1.68 WHIP. But thanks to his exceptional work, the relief corps still went 5-2 overall with a 2.43 ERA.
Individual hitting trends:
UP significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Rolen +91, Heisey +87, Ludwick +48, Mesoraco +46, Frazier +24
DOWN significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Votto -102, Valdez -43, Cozart -37, Stubbs -30, Bruce -24
No significant change: Phillips, Hanigan, Cairo
Individual pitching trends:
UP significantly from June: Chapman, Arroyo, Bailey (all of whom had down months in June)
DOWN significantly from June: Leake, Simon, Arredondo
No significant change: everyone else
And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of July...
Cincinnati won 5 series (including 4 sweeps), lost 1 (at the Dodgers) and split 1 (at home against the Diamondbacks).
**From July 6th through July 29th, their record was an astonishing 17-2.**
Home record: 9-3 (8-2 on the only completed home stand, 1-1 ongoing)
Road record: 10-4 (4-4 to finish their 5-6 West Coast trip, 6-0 on their second trip)
vs West: 10-7
vs Central: 9-0 (nice!)
Overall offensive trends: The offense stepped up admirably in Joey's absence (he missed 15 of the 26 games). The batting average dipped only 3 points from June to .262, and the OBP only 9 points to .323. Five players trended up significantly in OPS+, five trended down, and three stayed about the same. Ryan Ludwick was phenomenal, Rolen showed a surprising return to old form, and Xavier Paul provided some unexpected help as well.
Overall pitching trends: The staff was outstanding, and the main reason that the team was able to weather the Votto-less storm. The overall ERA was 3.03 (the best of the year). After an already-solid June, the rotation boasted even better stats, going 14-5 with a 3.29 ERA. In June, Aroldis was the only problem in the bullpen. The exact opposite was true in July, when he was virtually the only dominant force. Relievers not named Chapman posted a 1.68 WHIP. But thanks to his exceptional work, the relief corps still went 5-2 overall with a 2.43 ERA.
Individual hitting trends:
UP significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Rolen +91, Heisey +87, Ludwick +48, Mesoraco +46, Frazier +24
DOWN significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Votto -102, Valdez -43, Cozart -37, Stubbs -30, Bruce -24
No significant change: Phillips, Hanigan, Cairo
Individual pitching trends:
UP significantly from June: Chapman, Arroyo, Bailey (all of whom had down months in June)
DOWN significantly from June: Leake, Simon, Arredondo
No significant change: everyone else
And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of July...
RANDY HITTER: Ryan Ludwick. "Brother" led Reds regulars in batting average (.333), OPS (1.089), home runs (7) and RBI (19).
Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier
RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Scott Rolen. After looking like he was sinking toward retirement, he batted .321 in July with a .413 OBP (best among regulars).
RANDY STARTER: Homer Bailey. 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP that would've been even better without his implosion on the final day of the month.
Honorable mention: Bronson Arroyo (3-1), Johnny Cueto (4-1)
RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Also Bailey. He was coming off a losing record and 6 ERA in June.
RANDY RELIEVER: Aroldis Chapman. An insanely easy choice...14.1 sparkling innings of shutout ball. Only 6 hits allowed, 2 walks, and 31 strikeouts. A perfect 13 for 13 on saves.
RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Also Chapman. June was his disaster month, with an 0-4 record and an ERA approaching 7.
RANDY NOOB: Xavier Paul. 7 for his first 13 as a Red, including 2 doubles and 2 key RBIs...we'll take it!
RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Drew Stubbs. A guy who really needed a confidence builder provided a huge boost on July 24th at Houston, going 3 for 4 including a homer that brought the Reds from down 2-1 to up 3-2 in the top of the 9th. That was one of the biggest hits of the entire season so far. Altogether, he was on base 4 of 5 times, with a strikeout and CS the only two blemishes on an awesome day.
RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Bronson Arroyo. He started the Reds' first win streak of the month when, on July 6th at San Diego, he pitched a complete-game, three-hit shutout. Bronson struck out 8, walked 1, and needed only 110 pitches to post the best game score by any Reds pitcher this year - 88.
Friday, June 1, 2012
Cincinnati Reds: May 2012 Summary
The Reds went 17-11 in May to surge into first place in the NL Central, holding a lead of 1.5 games over the St. Louis Cardinals entering play June 1st.
Cincinnati won 5 series, split 3 and lost 2.
Home: 8-4
Road: 9-7
vs Central: 6-5
vs East: 7-4
vs West: 2-1
vs AL: 2-1
Overall offensive trends: Average stable at an ugly number (.240 April, .242 May). OBP the same story: .306 in both months. The only improvement was in power - slugging rose from .387 to .421, boosting the Reds' OPS+ from 95 to 98. Bottom line: the Reds can win with this offense, but only if the pitching remains other-worldly. They need to get on base more to help win this division.
Overall pitching trends: The starters posted almost identical, solid-but-not-spectacular numbers in May (3.86 ERA) relative to April (3.89). The bullpen went from great to insanely great, lowering its ERA from 2.81 to 2.02 and its WHIP from 1.25 to 1.03. All these numbers are good enough to make the playoffs. Again, the question is offense.
Individual offensive trends:
UP significantly (40 or more OPS+ points): Votto, Heisey, Hanigan
DOWN significantly: Bruce, Cozart, Mesoraco
NOT MUCH CHANGE (GOOD): Phillips
NOT MUCH CHANGE (BAD): Stubbs
Individual pitching trends:
UP significantly: Latos, Bailey, Leake, Simon, LeCure, Marshall
DOWN significantly: Cueto, Arroyo, Ondrusek
NOT MUCH CHANGE (GOOD): Chapman, Arredondo
And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of May.
RANDY NEWBIE:
JJ Hoover (0.90 ERA in 10 IP, 10 K) - yes he pitched in April, but May was his first full month with the Reds.
Cincinnati won 5 series, split 3 and lost 2.
Home: 8-4
Road: 9-7
vs Central: 6-5
vs East: 7-4
vs West: 2-1
vs AL: 2-1
Overall offensive trends: Average stable at an ugly number (.240 April, .242 May). OBP the same story: .306 in both months. The only improvement was in power - slugging rose from .387 to .421, boosting the Reds' OPS+ from 95 to 98. Bottom line: the Reds can win with this offense, but only if the pitching remains other-worldly. They need to get on base more to help win this division.
Overall pitching trends: The starters posted almost identical, solid-but-not-spectacular numbers in May (3.86 ERA) relative to April (3.89). The bullpen went from great to insanely great, lowering its ERA from 2.81 to 2.02 and its WHIP from 1.25 to 1.03. All these numbers are good enough to make the playoffs. Again, the question is offense.
Individual offensive trends:
UP significantly (40 or more OPS+ points): Votto, Heisey, Hanigan
DOWN significantly: Bruce, Cozart, Mesoraco
NOT MUCH CHANGE (GOOD): Phillips
NOT MUCH CHANGE (BAD): Stubbs
Individual pitching trends:
UP significantly: Latos, Bailey, Leake, Simon, LeCure, Marshall
DOWN significantly: Cueto, Arroyo, Ondrusek
NOT MUCH CHANGE (GOOD): Chapman, Arredondo
And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of May.
RANDY HITTER:
Joey Votto - .355, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 23 walks
Honorable mention: Ryan Hanigan
RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER:
Chris Heisey (raised his OPS+ by 46 points)
RANDY STARTER:
Mat Latos (3-0, 3.26, and a 1.12 WHIP)
Honorable mention: Homer Bailey
RANDY MOST IMPROVED PITCHER:
Mike Leake (his ERA was 2.1 runs lower)
RANDY RELIEVER:
Aroldis Chapman (still sporting a 0.00 ERA, struck out 23 batters in May)
RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER:
Sean Marshall (his ERA was 2.4 runs lower)
JJ Hoover (0.90 ERA in 10 IP, 10 K) - yes he pitched in April, but May was his first full month with the Reds.
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Reds Bullpen on a Tear
FACT #1: Since Sean Marshall's unfortunate blown save against San Francisco on Thursday, April 26th, the Reds' bullpen has thrown 17 straight scoreless innings over the course of 5 games. During that remarkable stretch, they've only allowed 6 hits and struck out 14 while walking only 6.
FACT #2: Aroldis Chapman (13.1 innings), Logan Ondrusek (12) and JJ Hoover (4) are all yet to allow a single run (earned OR unearned) this season. That's a combined 29.1 scoreless innings, with only 11 hits allowed.
In addition, Jose Arredondo has 10.1 scoreless IP since his only outing (in early April) where he allowed any runs.
Wow.
FACT #2: Aroldis Chapman (13.1 innings), Logan Ondrusek (12) and JJ Hoover (4) are all yet to allow a single run (earned OR unearned) this season. That's a combined 29.1 scoreless innings, with only 11 hits allowed.
In addition, Jose Arredondo has 10.1 scoreless IP since his only outing (in early April) where he allowed any runs.
Wow.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
The men behind the win 4/5/12: Reds 4, Marlins 0
I'm no Marlins fan, to be sure, but before we get on to celebrating this excellent Opening Day victory, I want to thank their organization for three things:
1) Being such good sports for taking an embarrassing stadium-opening loss to Kyle Lohse, then heading straight up to Cincinnati for an afternoon game against a much better pitcher.
2) Changing their name to Miami, so "Back to the Future 2" can look even more prescient. The only problem was they had Miami facing the Cubs in the World Series, so one team has to move to the AL.
3) Changing their colors to a combination that thugs and wannabes apparently find even more appealing than that of our Redlegs. For years, I've never been sure whether I might say "go Reds" to someone in a Cincinnati hat and have them shoot me. The new Miami hat is everywhere, so honestly, a heartfelt thanks.
Now for the men behind today's win in front of a GABP record crowd...
1) Johnny Cueto. 2011's ace looks like 2012's ace, and I think we'd all be cool with that. No runs, 3 hits in 7 innings. Four strikeouts, 2 walks. Nobody reached third base. Beautiful work.
2) Jay Bruce. Hopefully 2012's Bruce can sustain effectiveness at the plate and in the field after a little dropoff (mostly defensively) in 2011. He was great today - 2 RBIs, including the first of the game (a sacrifice fly) in the 1st, and a solo homer in the 8th to put the Reds up 3-0.
3) Aroldis Chapman. It's really frustrating that we need him in the bullpen this year, but if he's stuck there, let him keep dominating like he did today. With only a 2-run lead in the top of the 8th inning, he held the Marlins in check (striking out two).
4) Zack Cozart. Great to see our shortstop go 2 for 4 in his first regular season game since the unfortunate injury last season. I really feel like this could be our first solid all-around SS since the Larkin days.
1-0. First place. 161 games to go.
1) Being such good sports for taking an embarrassing stadium-opening loss to Kyle Lohse, then heading straight up to Cincinnati for an afternoon game against a much better pitcher.
2) Changing their name to Miami, so "Back to the Future 2" can look even more prescient. The only problem was they had Miami facing the Cubs in the World Series, so one team has to move to the AL.
3) Changing their colors to a combination that thugs and wannabes apparently find even more appealing than that of our Redlegs. For years, I've never been sure whether I might say "go Reds" to someone in a Cincinnati hat and have them shoot me. The new Miami hat is everywhere, so honestly, a heartfelt thanks.
Now for the men behind today's win in front of a GABP record crowd...
1) Johnny Cueto. 2011's ace looks like 2012's ace, and I think we'd all be cool with that. No runs, 3 hits in 7 innings. Four strikeouts, 2 walks. Nobody reached third base. Beautiful work.
2) Jay Bruce. Hopefully 2012's Bruce can sustain effectiveness at the plate and in the field after a little dropoff (mostly defensively) in 2011. He was great today - 2 RBIs, including the first of the game (a sacrifice fly) in the 1st, and a solo homer in the 8th to put the Reds up 3-0.
3) Aroldis Chapman. It's really frustrating that we need him in the bullpen this year, but if he's stuck there, let him keep dominating like he did today. With only a 2-run lead in the top of the 8th inning, he held the Marlins in check (striking out two).
4) Zack Cozart. Great to see our shortstop go 2 for 4 in his first regular season game since the unfortunate injury last season. I really feel like this could be our first solid all-around SS since the Larkin days.
1-0. First place. 161 games to go.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Reds 4 Cubs 2: The men behind the win 9/6/11
Mike Leake's sprint to victory turned into a 13-inning marathon for the Reds. It was frustrating to watch, but worth it in the end.
The heroes:
1) Mike Leake. One mistake pitch to Bryan LaHair, resulting in a 2-run homer with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th to tie things up, meant Leake would not get his much-deserved 2-hit shutout. After a single by Alfonso Soriano in the second (he was erased the very next batter on a Marlon Byrd GIDP), Leake didn't give up a hit again until a cheap infield single in the bottom of the 9th. In between, only two guys reached base - Darwin Barney on catcher's interference, and Soriano on an HBP (Byrd again doubled him up in the 8th). This was true domination by Leake, and everyone in Reds country was disappointed for him when LaHair's blast sailed out to right field.
2) Joey Votto. If not for Leake's gem, this guy would be the clear #1. He provided two of the three RBIs on the night (Mesoraco's GIDP means no RBI for the second of the four runs). Both came on doubles to drive in Dave Sappelt - one in the sixth to put the Reds ahead 1-0, one in the thirteenth to put the Reds ahead 3-2. Both times he broke a long-standing offensive malaise.
3) Dave Sappelt. He got on base 4 of 6 times, and was the key star other than Votto in a manner similar to the Alonso/Sappelt comeback game in Miami. Two doubles, 1 single and a walk. Scored both go-ahead runs on Votto doubles, motoring around the bases like a madman.
4) Sam LeCure. He pitched to one batter, but I'll admit I thought things were over in the bottom of the 10th. The Cubs had all the momentum, and thanks to Nick Masset, they had built a scary situation - bases loaded, 1 out. Enter LeCure to face Jeff Baker. GIDP, inning over.
Honorable mention to Francisco Cordero (1-2-3 for the save in the 13th) and Aroldis Chapman (1.1 scoreless, got the Reds out of Arredondo's mess in the 11th, got the win).
No Red LOBsters worth mentioning...in fact, the Reds went 5 for 13 with RISP so I can't complain.
Tomorrow for all the marbles and a potential fourth straight road series win, it's ace Johnny Cueto vs the often-irritating Ryan Dempster at 8:05 ET. There are some subplots to this one. Can Cueto maintain his lead in the ERA "race" and finally get to 10 wins? If the Reds don't break through against Dempster, can they do so against a quartet of Cub relievers who have given them fits in 2011? In 27 combined innings against Samardzija, Wood, Marmol and Marshall, the Reds have scored only 6 earned runs (2.00 ERA) and struck out 33 times. Finally, the ever-present questions about the youngsters - which ones will play, and which ones will make the most of their opportunities? So far, everyone has contributed but everyone has also shown weaknesses or inconsistencies in some aspect of the game. There is definitely reason for hope in 2012 but the lineup for next year (other than the obvious mainstays) is still completely TBD.
The heroes:
1) Mike Leake. One mistake pitch to Bryan LaHair, resulting in a 2-run homer with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th to tie things up, meant Leake would not get his much-deserved 2-hit shutout. After a single by Alfonso Soriano in the second (he was erased the very next batter on a Marlon Byrd GIDP), Leake didn't give up a hit again until a cheap infield single in the bottom of the 9th. In between, only two guys reached base - Darwin Barney on catcher's interference, and Soriano on an HBP (Byrd again doubled him up in the 8th). This was true domination by Leake, and everyone in Reds country was disappointed for him when LaHair's blast sailed out to right field.
2) Joey Votto. If not for Leake's gem, this guy would be the clear #1. He provided two of the three RBIs on the night (Mesoraco's GIDP means no RBI for the second of the four runs). Both came on doubles to drive in Dave Sappelt - one in the sixth to put the Reds ahead 1-0, one in the thirteenth to put the Reds ahead 3-2. Both times he broke a long-standing offensive malaise.
3) Dave Sappelt. He got on base 4 of 6 times, and was the key star other than Votto in a manner similar to the Alonso/Sappelt comeback game in Miami. Two doubles, 1 single and a walk. Scored both go-ahead runs on Votto doubles, motoring around the bases like a madman.
4) Sam LeCure. He pitched to one batter, but I'll admit I thought things were over in the bottom of the 10th. The Cubs had all the momentum, and thanks to Nick Masset, they had built a scary situation - bases loaded, 1 out. Enter LeCure to face Jeff Baker. GIDP, inning over.
Honorable mention to Francisco Cordero (1-2-3 for the save in the 13th) and Aroldis Chapman (1.1 scoreless, got the Reds out of Arredondo's mess in the 11th, got the win).
No Red LOBsters worth mentioning...in fact, the Reds went 5 for 13 with RISP so I can't complain.
Tomorrow for all the marbles and a potential fourth straight road series win, it's ace Johnny Cueto vs the often-irritating Ryan Dempster at 8:05 ET. There are some subplots to this one. Can Cueto maintain his lead in the ERA "race" and finally get to 10 wins? If the Reds don't break through against Dempster, can they do so against a quartet of Cub relievers who have given them fits in 2011? In 27 combined innings against Samardzija, Wood, Marmol and Marshall, the Reds have scored only 6 earned runs (2.00 ERA) and struck out 33 times. Finally, the ever-present questions about the youngsters - which ones will play, and which ones will make the most of their opportunities? So far, everyone has contributed but everyone has also shown weaknesses or inconsistencies in some aspect of the game. There is definitely reason for hope in 2012 but the lineup for next year (other than the obvious mainstays) is still completely TBD.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
The men behind the win, 8/11/11
With hopes for the playoffs all but dashed already, the remaining goals for this season include salvaging respectability (for a team too talented to finish below .500 or so many games out of first) and developing a clearer picture for 2012. One guy we almost never have to worry about is Cueto, who helped the Reds split a 4-gamer with a team that's owned them for a while.
1) Johnny Cueto. No complete game, but a really strong bounce-back performance after getting manhandled in Chicago (because of chicken wings?). 7 IP, 9 strikeouts. No runs allowed, only 3 hits and 2 walks. Finally picked up his 8th win. He won't beat Halladay for the Cy but he deserves second place in the voting.
2) Jay Bruce. The only Red with 2 hits, got the game's first RBI, and his double was one of only 2 hits the team collected after the first inning even if it didn't result in anything. He also had to sprinkle in a couple Ks, but Chacin is tough.
3) Aroldis Chapman. Not one of his easier innings of late, but he still ran his scoreless inning streak to 13.2. He has 3 walks in his last 4 innings, and hopefully that's not a sign of more control trouble ahead.
4) Joey Votto. Nothing stellar, but he got things started with his (ultimately) very important 2-out double in the first, and finished the game by snagging a line drive.
1) Johnny Cueto. No complete game, but a really strong bounce-back performance after getting manhandled in Chicago (because of chicken wings?). 7 IP, 9 strikeouts. No runs allowed, only 3 hits and 2 walks. Finally picked up his 8th win. He won't beat Halladay for the Cy but he deserves second place in the voting.
2) Jay Bruce. The only Red with 2 hits, got the game's first RBI, and his double was one of only 2 hits the team collected after the first inning even if it didn't result in anything. He also had to sprinkle in a couple Ks, but Chacin is tough.
3) Aroldis Chapman. Not one of his easier innings of late, but he still ran his scoreless inning streak to 13.2. He has 3 walks in his last 4 innings, and hopefully that's not a sign of more control trouble ahead.
4) Joey Votto. Nothing stellar, but he got things started with his (ultimately) very important 2-out double in the first, and finished the game by snagging a line drive.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
The men behind the win 8/2/11
The series opener against Houston was a terrible downer, but all is not lost. With a win tomorrow (in a fairly favorable pitching matchup and an offense that should ALWAYS be better than Houston's) the Reds can still finish the three game set a step or two closer to some of the other Central competitors. Right now: 1 back of Pittsburgh, 4 behind St. Louis, 6.5 leeward of Milwaukee.
1) Homer Bailey. A lot of people love to rip this guy for his inconsistency but I always feel a million times better with him on the mound than some of the alternatives (Arroyo, Wood, Volquez and even Willis...who is consistent but never dominates like Homer did again tonight). He's got 8 of 12 quality starts this year, and this is the 5th time he's gone at least 7 innings (big after an extra inning debacle). His line: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K.
2) Edgar Renteria. The much-maligned Rent-a-wreck offered up a hugely clutch grand slam in the 5th...oddly the only inning with any scoring.
3) Chris Heisey. Started off the 5th with a double, only the second hit of the game for the Reds. 2 for 4 overall with a stolen base and a run scored.
4) Aroldis Chapman. Now eight straight appearances with no runs OR hits allowed, and his ERA is down to 3.73. During that span he has 15 strikeouts and 1 walk in 9.2 IP. WOW.
1) Homer Bailey. A lot of people love to rip this guy for his inconsistency but I always feel a million times better with him on the mound than some of the alternatives (Arroyo, Wood, Volquez and even Willis...who is consistent but never dominates like Homer did again tonight). He's got 8 of 12 quality starts this year, and this is the 5th time he's gone at least 7 innings (big after an extra inning debacle). His line: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K.
2) Edgar Renteria. The much-maligned Rent-a-wreck offered up a hugely clutch grand slam in the 5th...oddly the only inning with any scoring.
3) Chris Heisey. Started off the 5th with a double, only the second hit of the game for the Reds. 2 for 4 overall with a stolen base and a run scored.
4) Aroldis Chapman. Now eight straight appearances with no runs OR hits allowed, and his ERA is down to 3.73. During that span he has 15 strikeouts and 1 walk in 9.2 IP. WOW.
Sunday, July 24, 2011
The men behind the win 7/24/11
Finally, back-to-back wins for the first time since June 15th. Only 3 games back of the three-headed beast leading the Central.
1) Drew Stubbs obviously. Second career walkoff home run (also second career walkoff hit of any kind). Scored twice.
2) Aroldis Chapman. Huge performance to keep things tied.
3) Brandon Phillips. Early lead from his blast was nice, even if it didn't last.
4) Dontrelle Willis. All three of his outings have gone similarly...great innings, scary innings, all in all an okay start. He's not the potential ace he once was, but no one expects that anyway. If he can keep the team in the game the way he has so far, that's all we can ask.
1) Drew Stubbs obviously. Second career walkoff home run (also second career walkoff hit of any kind). Scored twice.
2) Aroldis Chapman. Huge performance to keep things tied.
3) Brandon Phillips. Early lead from his blast was nice, even if it didn't last.
4) Dontrelle Willis. All three of his outings have gone similarly...great innings, scary innings, all in all an okay start. He's not the potential ace he once was, but no one expects that anyway. If he can keep the team in the game the way he has so far, that's all we can ask.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
The men behind the win, 7/6/11
1) Aroldis Chapman - First career save, 1 IP, 2 K
2) Jay Bruce - 2B, HR, BB in 6 PAs. 2 R, 2 RBI
3) Jose Arredondo - 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 K
4) Chris Heisey- HR, 2 BB in 7 PAs. Set the tone for the game with his first-pitch blast.
Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Fred Lewis, Sam LeCure, Nick Masset
Guys who let us down in spite of the win...
1) Bill Bray. In a rarity, he let both inherited runners score. He's only allowed that to happen 7 of 28 times this season (25%) and in fact is the only guy on the team below league average (30%) for that stat in both 2010 and 2011.
2) The SS position. No surprise here. Renteria and Janish a combined 1 for 7 with 2 strikeouts and 5 left on base.
3) Bronson Arroyo. What could have been one of his finer starts of the year turned into yet another non-quality start (he now has only 8 in 18 games this year).
2) Jay Bruce - 2B, HR, BB in 6 PAs. 2 R, 2 RBI
3) Jose Arredondo - 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 K
4) Chris Heisey- HR, 2 BB in 7 PAs. Set the tone for the game with his first-pitch blast.
Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Fred Lewis, Sam LeCure, Nick Masset
Guys who let us down in spite of the win...
1) Bill Bray. In a rarity, he let both inherited runners score. He's only allowed that to happen 7 of 28 times this season (25%) and in fact is the only guy on the team below league average (30%) for that stat in both 2010 and 2011.
2) The SS position. No surprise here. Renteria and Janish a combined 1 for 7 with 2 strikeouts and 5 left on base.
3) Bronson Arroyo. What could have been one of his finer starts of the year turned into yet another non-quality start (he now has only 8 in 18 games this year).
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