Review of the Reds' April Offense

The last three seasons, the Reds have finished April with strikingly similar records:
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012


As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends.  I'll keep each summary brief.  Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split).  In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.


One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair.  Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month.  A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.




BATTING ORDER: 
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.


Leadoff:


2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)




Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49


The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.




The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season.  BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.




BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:


Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010.  Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions.  We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.


The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.


Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46


Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56




Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55


SITUATIONAL TRENDS:




Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123




Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49






Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise.  We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws.  1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term.  C and 2B should be okay.  3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds left fielders

On to Left Field, where the Redlegs have brought home 2 NL MVPs. That makes the first two choices pretty easy.

1) George Foster, 1977. NL MVP. 8.2 WAR. Led the league in HR, runs scored, RBI, and OPS. Ranks first among all Red LF in HR, RBI and OPS, and second in runs.

2) Pete Rose, 1973. NL MVP. 8.5 WAR. Led the league in hits and batting average. Ranks first among all Red LF in hits.

3) Frank Robinson, 1956. Rookie of the Year. 6.2 WAR. Led the league in runs scored, and his total from that season is the third highest among all Reds at the position.

4) Adam Dunn, 2004. The much-maligned Cowboy of the Clubhouse La-Z-Boys did have a couple valuable seasons, and this was one of them. 5.5 WAR. Ranks among all-time Red LF: second in HR, third in OPS, fourth in walks.

The best of the rest:
5) Adam Dunn, 2005
6) Pete Rose, 1972
7) Frank Robinson, 1957
8) Pete Rose, 1974
9) George Foster, 1976
10) George Foster, 1978

Others worth mentioning:
Eric Davis, 1986
Greg Vaughn, 1999
Pat Duncan, 1922
Bob Bescher, 1912
Mike Donlin, 1903

wRC+ by position among Central contenders

wRC+ (weighted runs created, adjusted for park and league). If you want to compare players across positions/years/other variables, this is better than OPS+.

For each position I'll list the top 3 in MLB, and the relevant players at each position (for instance, Doumit and Snyder are injured for the Pirates so I list McKenry, who gets most of the starts now)

Catcher
Top 3 - Napoli 151, McCann 144, Hernandez 134
Central - Hernandez 134, Molina 103, Lucroy 98, Hanigan 93, McKenry 66

First base
Top 3 - Cabrera 167, Gonzalez 163, Fielder 158
Central - Fielder 158, Votto 151, Pujols 140, Overbay 83

Second base
Top 3 - Pedroia 146, Utley 142, Zobrist 138
Central - Weeks 131, Walker 104, Phillips 103, Schumaker 95

Shortstop
Top 3 - Reyes 162, Peralta 148, Cabrera 135
Central - Theriot 82, Cedeno 76, Betancourt 71, Renteria 66, Janish 42

Third base
Top 3 - Youkilis 148, Rodriguez 136, Sandoval 130
Central - Freese 123, Cairo 107, Descalso 95, Rolen 81, Alvarez 67, McGehee 60, d'Arnaud 58

Left field
Top 3 - Braun 176, Holliday 164, Johnson 149
Central - Braun 176, Holliday 164, Presley 148, Heisey 107, Gomes 103, Tabata 102, Lewis 87

Center field
Top 3 - Kemp 170, Granderson 153, Ellsbury 149
Central - McCutchen 142, Morgan 131, Stubbs 110, Rasmus 109

Right field
Top 3 - Bautista 209, Berkman 169, Beltran 153
Central - Berkman 169, Bruce 126, Jay 125, Hart 123, Jones 102

I'd say the main takeaway point is that, while shortstop and third have been major issues, left field is where we lag farthest behind the competition because that's supposed to be a position of major production. At least at short everyone else blows too, and if Cozart can get healthy we'll have a better option (in his limited time his rating was 122). At third, Frazier has potential to help us out as well.