The end of the Bruce / Phillips / Votto era

I'm 32 years old.  I started watching baseball in 1990, precisely when the Reds last won it all.  I heard about the Big Red Machine from my dad, and have since studied and watched them extensively.

The last 26 years have been frustrating.  But even when the team isn't making the playoffs, it's natural for a die-hard fan to get attached to individual Reds.  With rumors swirling about a trade of Jay Bruce, let's take a step back to appreciate the stability, productivity and longevity of this recent core group of players.  

Bruce, Phillips and Votto have been the primary starters at their respective positions for 8 consecutive seasons (2009-2016).  Only Machine-era combinations of 3+ players met or exceeded that.

Bench / Perez / Rose - 9 seasons (1968-1976)

Bench / Concepcion / Rose - 9 seasons (1970-1978)
Bruce / Phillips / Votto - 8 seasons (2009-2016)

Bench / Concepcion / Morgan - 8 seasons (1972-1979)

Bench / Concepcion / Perez / Rose - 7 seasons (1970-1976)
Helms / May / Perez / Rose - 6 seasons (1966-1971)
Cardenas / Pinson / Rose - 6 seasons (1963-1968)
Bell / McMillan / Temple - 6 seasons (1953-1958)
Groh / Roush / Wingo - 6 seasons (1916-1921)

All three have been extremely productive during their time as well.  There is no doubt that they will all end up in the Reds Hall of Fame.

Here are their rankings in some key stats...

Games played:
1) Rose - 2722
7) Phillips - 1566
20) Bruce - 1220
22) Votto - 1209

Hits:
1) Rose - 3358
9) Phillips - 1711
15) Votto - 1321
27) Bruce - 1116

HR:
1) Bench - 389
7) Bruce - 233
8) Votto - 210
12) Phillips - 186

RBI: 
1) Bench - 1376
10) Phillips - 824
15) Bruce - 718
17) Votto - 685

WAR (position players)
1) Rose - 77.7
8) Votto - 45.2
18) Phillips - 29.3
30) Bruce - 16.5


A number of things worked against this group.  While they had a solid pitching staff from 2010 through 2012, there were always weak links in the lineup, or mishaps along the way.  Most Reds fans believe we could've taken a championship in 2012, if not for Cueto's injury in Game 1 of the NLDS.  It certainly would have been interesting.  

While the postseason results have been disappointing, we've still had the opportunity to watch one of the most productive cores of position players in Reds history.  Let's appreciate that.

Most career WAR among Cincinnati Reds position players

These stats, as usual, have been collected from baseball-reference. Only seasons with the Reds are included.

1) Pete Rose - 74.6 wins above replacement in 19 seasons
2) Johnny Bench - 71.3 in 17 seasons
3) Barry Larkin - 68.9 in 19 seasons
4) Frank Robinson - 61.5 in 10 seasons
5) Joe Morgan - 61.3 in 8 seasons
6) Vada Pinson - 45.1 in 11 seasons
7) Tony Perez - 43.8 in 16 seasons
8) Edd Roush - 41.1 in 12 seasons
9) Heinie Groh - 38.7 in 9 seasons
10) George Foster - 38.1 in 11 seasons

11) Dave Concepcion - 33.6 in 19 seasons
12) Lonny Frey - 30.4 in 7 seasons
13) Ted Kluszewski - 29.7 in 11 seasons
14) Eric Davis - 29.4 in 9 seasons
15) Frank McCormick - 29.0 in 10 seasons
16) Ernie Lombardi - 27.1 in 10 seasons
17) Ken Griffey Sr. - 23.7 in 12 seasons
18) Adam Dunn - 22.2 in 8 seasons
19) Reggie Sanders - 21.6 in 8 seasons
20) Ival Goodman - 21.3 in 8 seasons

There you have it - 20 Reds position players with 20+ accumulated WAR. Soon to break on to this list (and hopefully sticking around in Cincinnati to reach the top ten) is Joey Votto (19.8 WAR). Rose, Bench and Larkin make a pretty awesome top 3 - clearly the kings of combined success and longevity in the Queen City. Then you have Robinson and Morgan, who dominate this list on a WAR-per-season basis and would easily be #1 and 2 if they'd spent their whole careers in Cincinnati.

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds third basemen

This is the most interesting position so far. Like first base, there isn't a clear favorite. And it's also the only position other than CF without an NL MVP season from any Red. Moreover, the Cincinnati hot corner has been lacking in defensive prowess, as Scott Rolen (2010) became the first Red ever to win a Gold Glove at the position. Again, the rules: 120+ games played, at least 50% at that position. I examined conventional statistics, WAR, and awards. A lot of these decisions, especially Perez vs Rose and where to rank Groh, were very difficult.

1) Tony Perez, 1970. 6.7 WAR. First among Red 3B in HR and OPS. Second in RBI and WAR. Finished third in NL MVP voting.

2) Pete Rose, 1976. 6.7 WAR. First among Red 3B in runs, hits and batting average. Second in WAR. Finished fourth in NL MVP voting.

3) Heinie Groh, 1917. 6.9 WAR. He played in an entirely different era, so many of his counting stats don't measure up, but he really belongs in the top 3. Groh led the league in hits, doubles and OBP in 1917. This season ranks him 7th in hits and 5th in doubles among all Red third basemen.

The best of the rest:
4) Heinie Groh, 1919 - led the league in OPS, posted 6.2 WAR
5) Tony Perez, 1969 - second among Red 3B in HR, OPS. 5.6 WAR.
6) Pete Rose, 1975 - second among Red 3B in hits, doubles and walks. 4.4 WAR.
7) Deron Johnson, 1965 - first among Red 3B in RBI, fourth in MVP voting
8) Chris Sabo, 1988 - second among Red 3B in stolen bases, Rookie of the Year
9) Billy Werber, 1939 - led the league in runs scored, posted 4.5 WAR
10) Don Hoak, 1957 - third among Red 3B in OPS, led the league in doubles

Also worth mentioning:
Billy Werber, 1940 (5.0 WAR)
Chris Sabo, 1991 (4th among Red 3B in OPS, 4.1 WAR)
Heinie Groh, 1918 (led league in runs, doubles and OBP, 4.7 WAR)
Tony Perez, 1968 and 1971
Pete Rose, 1977 and 1978

Jay Bruce's Walkoff - Not Clutch?

The funny thing about walkoff homers is they aren't always (mathematically, anyway) all that "clutch." Before I get into this discussion, two disclaimers.

1 - Jay Bruce is a great talent and (barring something unexpected) worth every bit of his contract.

2 - Bruce has had some of the most memorable moments at bat and in the field during his time in Cincinnati.

But didn't last night's home run feel a little anti-climactic? Certainly not worthy of the same level of revelry afforded to walkoffs past, let alone division-clinching walkoffs.

There are three main reasons that some (or at least I) felt this way last night.

1 (the obvious) - the Reds aren't in any kind of race, except to finish at/above .500 (which would be really nice)

2 (also obvious) - after Cordero's blown save (first since the All Star Break) it felt like the Reds should have had the game wrapped up already

3 (less obvious) - the situation was not all that dire in terms of win probability

Just a reminder...each team can have anywhere between a 0 and 1 (or 0 and 100 in percentage terms) chance of winning at any moment in the game. Because the Reds were tied and Bruce was batting in the home half of the 11th, with nobody out, and Votto already on second base, they already had an 81% chance of winning.

There were all sorts of ways for them to deal the finishing blow. While it was not an absolute guarantee (especially for the 2011 edition of the Cincinnati Reds) any fan watching was fully expecting a Reds victory after a lead-off double. All this being said, it was pretty darn exciting to defeat the hated Cubs with a bullpen-seeking missile.

I took a look at the 68 total walkoff homers in MLB during 2011. Among them, Bruce's had the third-lowest Win Probability Added (0.19). The only two lower came with the bases loaded and 1 out, meaning there was an even higher expectation of victory already (83%, so the homers resulted in 0.17 WPA).

- You may recall that Ramon Hernandez's Opening Day blast and Brandon Phillips' bomb against the Cardinals were both very clutch. In fact, they're both among the MLB top 3 for walkoff homer WPA this season, with a value of 0.91.

- This was Bruce's third career walkoff home run, and he is now the active career leader over Votto (2) and Stubbs (2)

- Tony Perez (10) has the most all-time of any Red, followed by Adam Dunn (7) and Frank Robinson (6)

Reds with 4+ RBI

Jay Bruce's 4 RBI game was the 9th of his career and 12th by a Red this season.

The all-time Reds leaders in games with 4+ RBI:

Bench 51 (including 7 three times, 6 twice, and 5 eight times)

Foster 34

Perez 31

Robinson 28 (54 for his whole career)

Dunn, McCormick 25

Kluszewski 24

Parker, Davis 23 (Parker had 50 in his career)

Griffey 22 (he had 45 with Seattle for a ridiculous total of 67)

The current Red with the most is Votto (14)

How clutch was that home run?

Since 1950 (as far back as baseball-reference's play index will go), the Reds have only had seven home runs that met all of the following conditions:

- walk-off winner
- 2 outs
- behind at the time
- tying run not even in scoring position, meaning extra bases (or relying on another hit from the next guy) were required to keep the game alive

They are:
Wally Post in 1954 (3-run homer, down 2 against Chicago)
Roy McMillan in 1957 (2-run homer, down 1 against St. Louis - identical in many respects to BP's)
Hal King in 1973 (3-run homer, down 2 against Los Angeles)
Tony Perez in 1974 (2-run homer, down 1 against San Francisco)
Adam Dunn in 2006 (grand slam, down 3 against Cleveland)
Ramon Hernandez in 2011 (3-run homer, down 2 against Milwaukee)
Brandon Phillips in 2011 (2-run homer, down 1 against St. Louis)

More trivia on the event:

- It was Brandon's second walk-off home run of his career and first with the Reds, and third walk-off hit of any kind as a Red.

- Votto and Bruce are the co-leaders on the current roster for walk-off hits as Reds, with 4 each. Two by Bruce and one by Votto were home runs.

- Tony Perez is the all-time Reds leader in walk-off hits with 19. Frank Robinson had 14.

- Perez also leads the Reds in walk-off homers with 10. Adam Dunn had 7.

Cincinnati Reds All-Star Game History

The Reds were abysmal last night in the All-Star Game, going 0 for 6 with 4 strikeouts, plus an error by Jay Bruce. Here are the highlights and lowlights in Reds' ASG history.


Best combined hitting:


1) 1976. 7 for 14, 3 runs, 4 RBI, 1 HR. Bench, Concepcion, Foster, Griffey, Perez, Morgan and Rose. Foster's 3-run HR was the highlight.


2) 1956. 6 for 15, 3 runs, 2 RBI. Bailey, Kluszewski, Bell, Robinson, McMillan, Temple. Big Klu was 2 for 2.


3) 1954. 3 for 5, 3 runs, 5 RBI, 2 HR from only two players - Bell and Kluszewski.


4) 1980. 3 for 6, 3 runs, 1 RBI, 1 HR. Bench, Concepcion, Knight, and Griffey - who had the HR.


5) 1975. 5 for 15, 2 RBI. Bench, Morgan, Rose, Concepcion, Perez.


Honorable mention to 1967...only 1 for 4, but the hit was a game-winning HR by Perez in the 15th inning.




Best pitching:


1) 1940. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Derringer (got the win) and Walters.


2) 1990. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Armstrong, Dibble and Myers.


3) 1942. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Vander Meer and Walters.


4) 1938. 3 IP, 0 runs allowed by Vander Meer, who also got the win.


5) 1982. 2.1 IP, 0 runs allowed. Soto and Hume, who recorded a save.








Worst all-around:


1) 1995. 0 for 6 with 2 strikeouts at the plate. 2 runs allowed in 2 innings pitched.


2) 1965. 0 for 3 at the plate. 5 ER in 1.2 IP by Jim Maloney.


3) 2011. 0 for 6 with 4 strikeouts.


4) 1977. 2 for 12 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR. Five all-world guys should've done better with all those at-bats. And Seaver gave up 3 runs in 2 IP.


5) 1981. 0 for 5. Solo HR allowed in 1 IP.


Honorable mention to 1970 at Riverfront...if it weren't for Rose scoring the winning run, the Reds going 1 for 9 in the game would've been an embarrassment.




Best individual hitters, min. 10 AB:


1) Johnny Bench. 10 for 28


2) Ted Kluszewski. 7 for 14


3) Frank Robinson. 5 for 12






Worst individual hitters, min. 10 AB:


1) Barry Larkin. 2 for 18


2) Pete Rose. 6 for 27.


3) Joe Morgan. 6 for 24.