Choo changing the entire Reds offense

In 2012, the Cincinnati Reds offense struggled in one very major way.  Only Votto (.474), Hanigan (.365) and Ludwick (.346) got on base consistently.  Here were their OBP ranks by position in MLB:

C - .333 (10th)
1B - .423 (1st)
2B - .306 (22nd)
3B - .304 (23rd)
SS - .284 (25th)
LF - .339 (10th)
CF - .282 (30th)
RF - .320 (21st)
 
Note: Reds pitchers were also above average with a .176 OBP (9th in MLB) but the 9th spot in the order isn't something you rely on for production on a game-to-game basis.

And here are their rankings through 40 games in 2013:

C - .290 (21st)
1B - .455 (1st) - leading all other teams by 37 points
2B - .333 (11th)
3B - .314 (19th)
SS - .250 (28th)
LF - .302 (21st)
CF - .468 (1st) - leading all other teams by 73 points
RF - .303 (19th)

As you can see, the only huge change was in CF.  Votto's OBP is actually lower this year than last, but the team number for first base has improved as a result of him having 100% of the playing time so far this year.  

Choo is almost single-handedly responsible for the team OBP jumping from an abysmal .315 last year (22nd in the league) to .335 in 2013, which now ranks third in baseball.  Even with Cozart's weak bat behind him, Choo is tied for the MLB lead in runs scored (33).  Just imagine the numbers he might be putting up with Ludwick healthy and BP back in the 2-hole...

Review of the Reds' April Offense

The last three seasons, the Reds have finished April with strikingly similar records:
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012


As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends.  I'll keep each summary brief.  Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split).  In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.


One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair.  Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month.  A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.




BATTING ORDER: 
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.


Leadoff:


2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)




Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49


The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.




The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season.  BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.




BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:


Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010.  Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions.  We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.


The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.


Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46


Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56




Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55


SITUATIONAL TRENDS:




Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123




Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49






Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise.  We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws.  1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term.  C and 2B should be okay.  3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.

Fred Lewis for leadoff

Among our current choices, I don't really feel there's a good argument for anyone else.

Consider this:

If you look at the career stats of EVERY single position player on the team, there are only TWO who have higher career OBP leading off innings than their overall career OBP. Most are significantly worse starting things off, including Votto.

The two exceptions are:

Scott Rolen (only .002 higher, and not exactly someone you want leading off)

and

Fred Lewis (.349 overall, .371 leading off innings)

The trend has continued this season, albeit in a small sample size so far. He's got a .391 OBP in 23 such plate appearances.

Heisey: .178 (45 PA)
Stubbs: .286 (147 PA)

While I never want to see him batting 1st (or really in the lineup at all) against lefties, he should be seeing the majority of the time at leadoff unless we make a roster change or Stubbs somehow makes a massive turnaround.

Leadoff batters typically get 1/3 (or more) of their plate appearances leading off innings, while batters in other positions in the order only about 20-25%.

Predicting Runs Scored

I took the combined data from fangraphs for the seasons 1998-2011 (the current complement of teams). And correlated a few standard metrics with runs scored to see which has been the most predictive during the era. The following are R-squared values (highest equals best)

1 = wOBA (weighted on-base average) = .9714
2 = OBP x SLG = .9548
3 = OPS (OBP plus SLG) = .9492
4 = SLG = .8774
5 = OBP = .8736
6 = AVG = .7163

By the way, for wOBA in that time period, the Reds rank 12th in MLB.

The top teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Rockies, Indians, Cardinals