Reds get a measure of revenge against struggling Giants

The Reds just completed a dominant four-game series in AT&T Park, and in so doing, completed an equally dominant season series against the defending world champion Giants.

In taking the series 3-1, the Reds scored 31 runs (11, 9, 3, 8).

This was a "first since..." in a number of ways:

1) The first time they've scored 8+ runs three times in a single series since August 2005 (a sweep of the Cubs at Wrigley).

2) Also the first time they've scored 31 runs in a series since 2005 (32 runs against Arizona, 34 runs against Tampa Bay)

3) The first time they've scored 31 runs in a road series since July 2000 at Colorado...and the last time they scored MORE in a road series was May 1999, also at Colorado...a series in which they scored 36 runs thanks mostly to a 24-run outburst fueled by Jeffrey Hammonds (3 HR) and Sean Casey (6 RBI).


The Reds also completed the season series vs. San Francisco with a 6-1 record, and a dominant 45-14 advantage in runs scored.  Plus the no-hitter by Bailey.  

I'd say it went pretty well.  Certainly not well enough to erase the painful memories of the 2012 NLDS (and apparently not well enough to make up ground in the standings either), but quite well indeed.

The best individual performers of the four-game set:

At the plate: Devin Mesoraco (8 for 16, 2 homers, 7 RBI).  Probably the best series of his young career.

Starting pitching: Bronson Arroyo (6 K, 7-hit complete-game shutout in Game 1).  A vintage Bronson performance, keeping the struggling opposing lineup guessing all night - until the final batter, at least...and we all know D-Rob took care of that for him with one of the coolest catches you'll ever see.

Relief: Sam LeCure (2 K in a spotless inning to escape a bases-loaded jam of Leake's making in Game 4).  He has inherited 12 runners this season, and none have scored - best in MLB.

Now, it's on to Los Angeles.  The Reds have actually won 6 of their last 9 in Dodger Stadium, but that immediately followed a 12-game losing streak there.  It's always been a tough place to win, but winning is exactly what they have to do with a 5-game deficit to make up in the division race.

A few more stats on the Reds' April Offense

Win Probability Added (a value of 1.0 means, essentially, this player has contributed one win to the team):
Best:
Votto 1.2 
Bruce: 0.6 
Cozart 0.5


Worst:
Stubbs -0.6
Harris -0.6
Rolen - 0.4

For the following two metrics, I compared the entire year of 2011 to April 2012 numbers. 


Line-drive percentage (18% is league average)


Improved significantly from 2011:
Bruce - 23 (18 last year)
Rolen - 20 (17)
Cozart - 19 (13)


Declined significantly from 2011:
Phillips - 17 (21 last year)
Stubbs - 16 (20)
Heisey - 15 (20)


The best on the team for this stat is, of course, Joey Votto, checking in at 26% for both years.


Strike-out rate (20% is league average)

Improved significantly from 2011:
Stubbs - 26 (30 last year)
Heisey - 20 (25)
Mesoraco - 8 (19)


Declined significantly from 2011:
Rolen - 20 (13)

You might be surprised to hear that Votto strikes out more than the league average, at 24%.

Reds 2012 WAR: Position Players

Using Fangraphs' wonderful WAR Graphs tool, here are some charts of the careers (by age) of Cincinnati's main projected infielders, outfielders, and pitchers for 2012.

Positions 3-6 

Note: Both Cozart and Frazier were 25, with WAR of 0.7 on this graph.

My thoughts on this: We'd obviously be delighted to get the same sort of production in 2012 from the right side of our infield that we got in 2011.  It's difficult to imagine the left side doing any worse...one would have to think that either Rolen or Cozart will stay healthy and productive enough to boost their WAR.  Outside of those two possibilities, I don't have much faith in any combination of Janish/Francisco/Valdez/Frazier/Cairo/call-ups to provide big numbers.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 13.1 (all these totals according to baseball-reference, not Fangraphs)
My estimate for 2012: 15.0


Positions 7-9

My thoughts on this: The entire outfield really needs to prove itself.  Bruce is clearly the class of this group but needs more consistency.  He and Stubbs went downhill from 2010 to 2011 (Bruce mostly due to defense, Stubbs mostly due to strikeouts).  It really feels like THE year for both of them to show improvement (at least getting very close to a return to 2010 levels) or they may never be quite the players for which we hoped.  I'm fine with Ludwick as a relatively low-risk acquisition, although obviously all of us wanted a splashier solution in LF...hopefully he and Heisey can push each other to at least a modestly successful performance.  Alonso, Sappelt, Lewis and Gomes are all gone from the 2011 group.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 6.2
My estimate for 2012: 8.0


Catchers

Note: Mesoraco was 23, with WAR of -0.1 on this graph.

My thoughts on this: Ramon's offense will be missed, but Hanigan is still a good contact hitter and solid defensively, and Devin has nowhere to go but up.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 3.6
My estimate for 2012: 4.0

Total WAR estimate for position players: 27 (+4.1 from 2011)

Conclusion: As everyone knows, the Two Princes (if you want to call me baby, just go ahead now) have moved to the AL and Brauny Lad is a 'roider on suspension.  While some want to automatically crown the Reds the offensive champions of the 2012 NL Central, we still need to see more out of guys other than Votto and Phillips.  One thing I always harp on is the fact that the Reds offense is extremely opportunistic and therefore somewhat overrated.  I do feel they will lead the NL in runs scored in 2012 (they were tied for second with Colorado, 27 runs behind St. Louis).