Brandon Phillips is no longer a Red. I remember meeting him at the 2007 Winter Caravan in Louisville and telling him I hoped he'd stay around a long time. And he did - ten full seasons after that conversation. There were a few ups and a lot of downs for the team as a whole, but no one can say that BP didn't have a significant (and even historical) impact at second base in Cincinnati. Second only to Joe Morgan in the modern era*, no matter how you slice it.
* - I'm basically excluding the 1800s Reds defensive specialist, and Hall of Famer, Bid McPhee
Let's look at some of Dat Dude's statistics - admittedly, some of them are purely based on his longevity with the team, but that is still worth celebrating.
OFFENSE
GAMES PLAYED AS A RED:
1) Rose - 2722
2) Concepcion - 2488
3) Larkin - 2180
4) Bench - 2158
5) McPhee - 2135
6) Perez - 1948
7) Phillips - 1614
HITS - Phillips is 9th with 1774
DOUBLES - Phillips is 8th with 311
HOME RUNS - Phillips is 12th with 191
RUNS BATTED IN - Phillips is 10th with 851
STOLEN BASES - Phillips is 14th with 194
WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT - Phillips is tied for 15th with 30.5 (Eric Davis also accrued 30.5)
And here are some (appropriately) random statistical notes about his best offensive seasons:
1) There have been only seven 20 HR / 20 SB seasons by Reds second basemen. Joe Morgan had 4 of them, and Phillips had the other 3. And even more impressively...
2) Phillips had the ONLY 30/30 year by a Reds second baseman (2007). In MLB history, he is the only 2B not named Alfonso Soriano or Ian Kinsler to accomplish it. So, he's the only NL second baseman ever with a 30/30 year.
3) And only two other Reds at ANY position have ever gone 30/30. Eric Davis in 1987 and Barry Larkin in 1996.
4) It's rare in baseball as a whole, too. Only 60 seasons of 30/30 in all of MLB history. Amazingly, the Bonds family owns 10 of them - Bobby and Barry each with five.
DEFENSE
Of course, BP was best known as a flashy defender, and won four Gold Gloves (2008, 2010, 2011, 2013). Only Johnny Bench (10 straight) and Joe Morgan (5 straight) won more of those awards in a Cincinnati uniform.
Brandon put together quite the highlight reel on defense, saving the day with diving stops and behind-the-back flips on a regular basis. There may have been a few times when the flash wasn't totally necessary, but he entertained the crowd and that's what sports are for, after all.
And his fielding percentage was remarkable. 7 seasons of .990 or higher, including two seasons of .996! Wow. The only 2B in Reds history with a comparable defensive peak was Bret Boone ('95 through '97), but that didn't last nearly as long. If it weren't for his early struggles (before 2007, when he really clicked both offensively and defensively), his career numbers would be truly insane.
As it is, his lifetime fielding percentage of .988 at second base is higher than ALL BUT ONE of the 2Bs in Cooperstown:
Ryne Sandberg - .989
(Brandon Phillips)
Craig Biggio - .984
Roberto Alomar - .984
Nellie Fox - .984
Jackie Robinson - .983
Bill Mazeroski - .983
Red Schoendienst - .983
Joe Morgan - .981
Bobby Doerr - .980
Paul Molitor - .979
Charlie Gehringer - .976
Frankie Frisch - .974
Rod Carew - .973
Eddie Collins - .970
Joe Gordon - .970
Tony Lazzeri - .967
Billy Herman - .967
Rogers Hornsby - .965
Nap Lajoie - .963
Johnny Evers - .955
Bid McPhee - .944 (to be fair, he didn't use a glove)
You might criticize this comparison in a couple ways:
1) Errors are subjective from scorer to scorer, and the typical assessment has also changed over time.
2) There are more advanced metrics now, which account for range.
But I'd respond this way:
1) Mistakes are still mistakes, and Brandon almost never made them. Being second only to Sandberg means he was doing something right.
2) His career range factor was slightly above league average, not below...so if he reached a better-than-average number of balls AND so rarely made errors, his defense is worthy of your respect.
Among current second basemen, there are only a few who measure up to BP in terms of fielding percentage:
Dustin Pedroia - .991
Robinson Cano - .988
Jose Altuve - .988
Baseball-reference.com's dWAR stat doesn't rate Brandon Phillips as "all-world" by any stretch, but he accumulated 8.5 dWAR during his time with the Reds, which is solid. It's worth noting that his defensive value was a combined 7.3 dWAR from 2007 through 2012, and then he had a predictable fall-off after age 32.
Age was certainly a factor in the trade, as there have been only 11 seasons in MLB history of 5+ WAR by a second baseman who was 35 or older. Most of them happened before 1930. In other words, it's no slap in his face to say that a 2B is past his prime. Middle infield isn't a place where players age gracefully.
But let's not end this on such a depressing note! Let's instead remember BP for these three awesome things:
1) Amazing defense - in his prime (roughly age 27-33), right up there with the best of the best of the best of all time
2) His sense of humor and interacting with the fans
3) Standing up to the "WLB's." I still feel that Brandon helped set the aggressive tone the Reds needed to finally break through in the division.
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Showing posts with label war. Show all posts
Showing posts with label war. Show all posts
Monday, February 13, 2017
Monday, August 1, 2016
The top 8 Reds right fielders since 1900
Since I already went through this exercise with the shortstop position in my last post, in honor of Zack Cozart, I figured I'd do the same positional rundown for Jay Bruce.
At first glance, it might seem like RF has not been a particularly productive position in Cincinnati. If you go to baseball-reference.com and enter a query stipulating that the players must have spent at least 50% of their time at a given position, and earned at least 30 WAR, you get the list below:
C - Bench and Lombardi
1B - Perez, Votto, Klu, McCormick
2B - Morgan (plus BP and Frey have accumulated 29 WAR each)
3B - Groh
SS - Larkin and Concepcion
LF - Foster
CF - Pinson, Roush, and Davis
RF - no one
But this leaves out two ENORMOUS names in Reds history - Pete Rose (#1 all-time in Reds WAR with 77.7) and Frank Robinson (#4 all-time, with 63.8). Both of them switched positions frequently during their careers, so they aren't really "attached" to a given position. I think the most fair thing to do is to include them in this discussion, but only count the seasons when they played most of the time in RF.
Wins Above Replacement
1) Frank Robinson - 29.4 total, earned during 1961, 1962, 1964 and 1965 (his seasons predominantly in RF with Reds)
2) Ken Griffey, Sr. - 25.3 (mostly during his first stint with the team from 1973 to 1981)
3) Pete Rose - 22 total, earned during 1968-1971 (his seasons in RF with Reds)
4) Reggie Sanders - 21.4 (1991-1998)
5) Ival Goodman - 21.4 (1935-1942)
6) Curt Walker - 18.8 (1924-1930)
7) Jay Bruce - 16.1 (2008-2016)
8) Wally Post - 15.8 (during two stints in the '50s and '60s)
Conclusion:
Griffey Sr. is the best among the full-time right fielders, but Robinson and Rose put up big numbers in only four years.
Bruce fits nicely into the next tier, which are hard to really separate. Sanders, Goodman, and Post especially are well-respected in Reds history, and I believe Bruce deserves a place in the Reds Hall as well. I'm almost 100% certain he'll make it.
Unlike at the shortstop position, where Cozart simply hasn't had enough time to accumulate WAR, Bruce has actually played with the Reds as long (or longer) as anyone else on the list. His counting stats are impressive, but it's his lack of ability to get on base (career OBP .319) and his defensive deterioration that have held down his WAR. Nevertheless, he is an all-time Red. Given more time, he probably would've gotten very close to Bench for most HRs (he had 233, Bench had 389). And he was one of the most likeable Reds in recent memory as well. So long, Jay.
At first glance, it might seem like RF has not been a particularly productive position in Cincinnati. If you go to baseball-reference.com and enter a query stipulating that the players must have spent at least 50% of their time at a given position, and earned at least 30 WAR, you get the list below:
C - Bench and Lombardi
1B - Perez, Votto, Klu, McCormick
2B - Morgan (plus BP and Frey have accumulated 29 WAR each)
3B - Groh
SS - Larkin and Concepcion
LF - Foster
CF - Pinson, Roush, and Davis
RF - no one
But this leaves out two ENORMOUS names in Reds history - Pete Rose (#1 all-time in Reds WAR with 77.7) and Frank Robinson (#4 all-time, with 63.8). Both of them switched positions frequently during their careers, so they aren't really "attached" to a given position. I think the most fair thing to do is to include them in this discussion, but only count the seasons when they played most of the time in RF.
Wins Above Replacement
1) Frank Robinson - 29.4 total, earned during 1961, 1962, 1964 and 1965 (his seasons predominantly in RF with Reds)
2) Ken Griffey, Sr. - 25.3 (mostly during his first stint with the team from 1973 to 1981)
3) Pete Rose - 22 total, earned during 1968-1971 (his seasons in RF with Reds)
4) Reggie Sanders - 21.4 (1991-1998)
5) Ival Goodman - 21.4 (1935-1942)
6) Curt Walker - 18.8 (1924-1930)
7) Jay Bruce - 16.1 (2008-2016)
8) Wally Post - 15.8 (during two stints in the '50s and '60s)
Conclusion:
Griffey Sr. is the best among the full-time right fielders, but Robinson and Rose put up big numbers in only four years.
Bruce fits nicely into the next tier, which are hard to really separate. Sanders, Goodman, and Post especially are well-respected in Reds history, and I believe Bruce deserves a place in the Reds Hall as well. I'm almost 100% certain he'll make it.
Unlike at the shortstop position, where Cozart simply hasn't had enough time to accumulate WAR, Bruce has actually played with the Reds as long (or longer) as anyone else on the list. His counting stats are impressive, but it's his lack of ability to get on base (career OBP .319) and his defensive deterioration that have held down his WAR. Nevertheless, he is an all-time Red. Given more time, he probably would've gotten very close to Bench for most HRs (he had 233, Bench had 389). And he was one of the most likeable Reds in recent memory as well. So long, Jay.
The top 8 Reds shortstops since 1900
There has been a lot of discussion of Cozart potentially being traded. While I would disagree with the move, it's a good time to look at where he stands among Reds shortstops in terms of all-time productivity.
Let's compare a few statistics...
Baseball-reference Wins Above Replacement
1) Barry Larkin, in a landslide. 70.2 WAR in a career spanning 1986 to 2004.
2) Dave Concepcion. 39.8 WAR from 1970 to 1988.
3) Roy McMillan. Earned 18.3 WAR from 1951 to 1960.
4) Leo Cardenas. 14.8 WAR from 1960 to 1968.
5) Billy Myers. 13.6 WAR from 1935 to 1940.
6) Zack Cozart. 12.3 WAR from 2011 to 2016.
7) Buck Herzog. 12.0 WAR in only 3 seasons, 1914 to 1916.
8) Eddie Miller. 10.6 WAR, mostly earned during his second stint in Cincinnati from 1943 through 1946.
Offensive WAR only
1) Larkin - 67.5
2) Concepcion - 32.3
3) Cardenas - 13.8
4) McMillan - 12.4
5) Myers - 10.7
6) Buck Herzog - 9.1
7) Felipe Lopez - 6.4
8) Zack Cozart - 6.1
Defensive WAR only
1) Concepcion - 20.9
2) McMillan - 14.4
3) Larkin - 13.8
4) Miller - 10.5
5) Cozart - 9.1
6) Cardenas - 8.5
7) Hod Ford - 7.6
8) Myers - 7.3
NOTE: oWAR and dWAR do not sum to WAR, for a couple different reasons not worth going into in this post.
So it's clear that Larkin and Concepcion were in a class by themselves, as far as all-time Reds shortstops. Cozart falls into the next tier with guys like McMillan, Cardenas, and Myers. But with his consistently solid defensive game, and dramatic improvements on offense, I have little doubt that Cozart would (have) move(d) into the top tier within the next couple seasons, and be a sure-fire Reds Hall of Famer.
Let's compare a few statistics...
Baseball-reference Wins Above Replacement
1) Barry Larkin, in a landslide. 70.2 WAR in a career spanning 1986 to 2004.
2) Dave Concepcion. 39.8 WAR from 1970 to 1988.
3) Roy McMillan. Earned 18.3 WAR from 1951 to 1960.
4) Leo Cardenas. 14.8 WAR from 1960 to 1968.
5) Billy Myers. 13.6 WAR from 1935 to 1940.
6) Zack Cozart. 12.3 WAR from 2011 to 2016.
7) Buck Herzog. 12.0 WAR in only 3 seasons, 1914 to 1916.
8) Eddie Miller. 10.6 WAR, mostly earned during his second stint in Cincinnati from 1943 through 1946.
Offensive WAR only
1) Larkin - 67.5
2) Concepcion - 32.3
3) Cardenas - 13.8
4) McMillan - 12.4
5) Myers - 10.7
6) Buck Herzog - 9.1
7) Felipe Lopez - 6.4
8) Zack Cozart - 6.1
Defensive WAR only
1) Concepcion - 20.9
2) McMillan - 14.4
3) Larkin - 13.8
4) Miller - 10.5
5) Cozart - 9.1
6) Cardenas - 8.5
7) Hod Ford - 7.6
8) Myers - 7.3
NOTE: oWAR and dWAR do not sum to WAR, for a couple different reasons not worth going into in this post.
So it's clear that Larkin and Concepcion were in a class by themselves, as far as all-time Reds shortstops. Cozart falls into the next tier with guys like McMillan, Cardenas, and Myers. But with his consistently solid defensive game, and dramatic improvements on offense, I have little doubt that Cozart would (have) move(d) into the top tier within the next couple seasons, and be a sure-fire Reds Hall of Famer.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Post-Reds WAR (since 2000)
Since 2000, the Cincinnati Reds' best-known "one that got away" is, of course, Josh Hamilton. Many Reds fans still won't shut up about him. And indeed, he has provided the most total value to his teams since, among all players the Reds lost to trade or free agency in that time period. Take a look at the list below. Some of the names might really surprise you.
Notes: Players appearing on this list must have appeared in at least one MLB game for the Reds in the 2000 season or more recently. Totals are based on baseball-reference.com's wins above replacement.
Top WAR (wins above replacement) accumulators after leaving the Reds:
1) Josh Hamilton (21.7)
2) Ryan Dempster (20.4)
3) Cody Ross (12.0)
4) Edwin Encarnacion (9.1)
5) Bruce Chen (8.3)
6) Russell Branyan (8.2)
7) Kyle Lohse (7.7)
8) Chris Denorfia (7.1)
9) Jose Guillen (6.7)
10) Dmitri Young (6.3)
11) David Ross (5.7)
12) Brady Clark (5.3)
13) Matt Belisle (5.1)
14) Jerry Hairston (5.0)
15) Dennys Reyes (4.6)
I think most Reds fans have been surprised by the performance of Encarnacion, Denorfia and others since their departure - heck, even Chris Dickerson and Adam Rosales have performed decently for their teams, although not well enough to make the list.
Needless to say, this list is skewed toward players who left a handful (or more) of seasons ago. Here are three players who, given more time, will probably accumulate some strong numbers:
Travis Wood (2.9 total WAR after leaving the Reds)
Yonder Alonso (1.9)
Didi Gregorius (1.7)
Notice that you didn't see some rather famous players listed? The Reds didn't miss out on much value by letting these guys go:
Sean Casey (-0.2 total WAR after leaving the Reds)
Adam Dunn (-0.7)
Ken Griffey, Jr. (0.2)
Notes: Players appearing on this list must have appeared in at least one MLB game for the Reds in the 2000 season or more recently. Totals are based on baseball-reference.com's wins above replacement.
Top WAR (wins above replacement) accumulators after leaving the Reds:
1) Josh Hamilton (21.7)
2) Ryan Dempster (20.4)
3) Cody Ross (12.0)
4) Edwin Encarnacion (9.1)
5) Bruce Chen (8.3)
6) Russell Branyan (8.2)
7) Kyle Lohse (7.7)
8) Chris Denorfia (7.1)
9) Jose Guillen (6.7)
10) Dmitri Young (6.3)
11) David Ross (5.7)
12) Brady Clark (5.3)
13) Matt Belisle (5.1)
14) Jerry Hairston (5.0)
15) Dennys Reyes (4.6)
I think most Reds fans have been surprised by the performance of Encarnacion, Denorfia and others since their departure - heck, even Chris Dickerson and Adam Rosales have performed decently for their teams, although not well enough to make the list.
Needless to say, this list is skewed toward players who left a handful (or more) of seasons ago. Here are three players who, given more time, will probably accumulate some strong numbers:
Travis Wood (2.9 total WAR after leaving the Reds)
Yonder Alonso (1.9)
Didi Gregorius (1.7)
Notice that you didn't see some rather famous players listed? The Reds didn't miss out on much value by letting these guys go:
Sean Casey (-0.2 total WAR after leaving the Reds)
Adam Dunn (-0.7)
Ken Griffey, Jr. (0.2)
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Top 20 Shutdown Relief Pitching Seasons in MLB History
Only 30 individual relief pitching seasons in MLB history meet all of the following requirements:
- at least 60 innings pitched
- an ERA+ of 250 or higher
- a WHIP of 0.90 or lower
- WAR of 3 or more
- K/BB ratio of 3 or higher
All but four of those occurred since 1990, which isn't surprising because of the increased specialization of relief pitchers, with special emphasis on having a "shutdown closer."
Appearing multiple times on the list:
Bryan Harvey - 1991 with the Angels, 1993 with the Marlins
Craig Kimbrel - 2012 and 2013 with the Braves
Joe Nathan - 2006 with the Twins, 2013 with the Rangers
Mariano Rivera - 2005 and 2008 with the Yankees
I wanted to make a list of the best shutdown seasons ever, factoring in the categories listed above as well as K/9 and OPS+ against. You might notice (and even, possibly, object) that I'm neglecting saves. Sorry, but the stat is almost completely meaningless.
Here are my top 20 shutdown relief seasons in MLB history....
1) Craig Kimbrel, 2012 Atlanta Braves
IP: 62.2
ERA+: 399 (4th)
WHIP: 0.654 (3rd)
WAR: 3.3 (24th)
K/9: 16.66 (1st)
K/BB: 8.29 (6th)
OPS+ against: 1 (1st)
Total ranking points: 39
Traditional stats: 3-1, 42 saves, 1.01 ERA
2) Eric Gagne, 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers
He won the NL Cy Young for this season, and rightfully so.
IP: 82.1
ERA+: 337 (10th on the list)
WHIP: 0.692 (5th)
WAR: 3.6 (14th)
K/9: 14.98 (3rd)
K/BB: 6.85 (7th)
OPS+ against: 4 (2nd)
Total ranking points: 41
Traditional stats: 2-3, 55 saves, 1.20 ERA
3) Koji Uehara, 2013 Boston Red Sox
IP: 74.1
ERA+: 379 (7th)
WHIP: 0.565 (1st)
WAR: 3.6 (18th)
K/9: 12.23 (10th)
K/BB: 11.22 (3rd)
OPS+ against: 8 (3rd)
Total ranking points: 42
Traditional stats: 4-1, 21 saves, 1.09 ERA
4) Mariano Rivera, 2008 New York Yankees.
Incredibly, he never won a Cy Young.
IP: 70.2
ERA+: 316 (17th)
WHIP: 0.665 (4th)
WAR: 4.3 (3rd)
K/9: 9.81 (21st)
K/BB: 12.83 (2nd)
OPS+ against: 10 (5th)
Total ranking points: 52
Traditional stats: 6-5, 39 saves, 1.40 ERA
5) Jonathan Papelbon, 2006 Boston Red Sox.
IP: 68.1
ERA+: 517 (3rd)
WHIP: 0.776 (9th)
WAR: 5.0 (2nd)
K/9: 9.88 (20th)
K/BB: 5.77 (12th)
OPS+ against: 18 (12th)
Total ranking points: 58
Traditional stats: 4-2, 35 saves, 0.92 ERA
6) Dennis Eckersley, 1990 Oakland Athletics.
He won a Cy two years later, but this year was better.
IP: 73.1
ERA+: 603 (2nd)
WHIP: 0.614 (2nd)
WAR: 3.3 (27th)
K/9: 8.96 (26th)
K/BB: 18.25 (1st)
OPS+ against: 13 (6th)
Total ranking points: 64
Traditional stats: 4-2, 48 saves, 0.61 ERA
7) J.J. Putz, 2007 Seattle Mariners
IP: 71.2
ERA+: 319 (15th)
WHIP: 0.698 (6th)
WAR: 4.0 (8th)
K/9: 10.30 (17th)
K/BB: 6.31 (8th)
OPS+ against: 21 (14th)
Total ranking points: 68
Traditional stats: 6-1, 40 saves, 1.38 ERA
8) Billy Wagner, 1999 Houston Astros
IP: 74.2
ERA+: 287 (23rd)
WHIP: 0.777 (10th)
WAR: 3.8 (11th)
K/9: 14.95 (4th)
K/BB: 5.39 (17th)
OPS+ against: 10 (4th)
Total ranking points: 69
Traditional stats: 4-1, 39 saves, 1.57 ERA
9) Wade Davis, 2014 Kansas City Royals
IP: 72.0
ERA+: 399 (4th)
WHIP: 0.847 (17th)
WAR: 3.7 (16th)
K/9: 13.63 (6th)
K/BB: 4.74 (21st)
OPS+ against: 16 (8th)
Total ranking points: 72
Traditional stats: 9-2, 3 savs, 1.00 ERA
10) Fernando Rodney, 2012 Tampa Bay Rays
IP: 74.2
ERA+: 641 (1st)
WHIP: 0.777 (10th)
WAR: 3.8 (11th)
K/9: 9.16 (24th)
K/BB: 5.07 (19th)
OPS+ against: 18 (10th)
Total ranking points: 75
Traditional stats: 2-2, 48 saves, 0.60 ERA
11) Takashi Saito, 2007 Los Angeles Dodgers
IP: 64.1
ERA+: 319 (16th)
WHIP: 0.715 (7th)
WAR: 3.5 (20th)
K/9: 10.91 (13th)
K/BB: 6.00 (9th)
OPS+ against: 19 (13th)
Total ranking points: 78
Traditional stats: 2-1, 39 saves, 1.40 ERA
12) Rafael Betancourt, 2007 Cleveland Indians
IP: 79.1
ERA+: 307 (21st)
WHIP: 0.756 (8th)
WAR: 4.3 (4th)
K/9: 9.08 (25th)
K/BB: 8.89 (5th)
OPS+ against: 26 (19th)
Total ranking points: 82
Traditional stats: 5-1, 3 saves, 1.47 ERA
13) Bruce Sutter, 1977 Chicago Cubs
Like Eckersley, he won a Cy two years after his true best season.
IP: 107.1
ERA+: 328 (13th)
WHIP: 0.857 (19th)
WAR: 6.5 (1st)
K/9: 10.82 (14th)
K/BB: 5.61 (16th)
OPS+ against: 31 (23rd)
Total ranking points: 86
Traditional stats: 7-3, 31 saves, 1.34 ERA
14) Dellin Betances, 2014 New York Yankees
IP: 90.0
ERA+: 277 (25th)
WHIP: 0.778 (12th)
WAR: 3.7 (15th)
K/9: 13.50 (7th)
K/BB: 5.63 (14th)
OPS+ against: 26 (18th)
Total ranking points: 91
Traditional stats: 5-0, 1 save, 1.40 ERA
15) Joe Nathan, 2006 Minnesota Twins
IP: 68.1
ERA+: 284 (24th)
WHIP: 0.790 (14th)
WAR: 3.3 (25th)
K/9: 12.51 (9th)
K/BB: 5.94 (10th)
OPS+ against: 18 (12th)
Total ranking points: 94
Traditional stats: 7-0, 36 saves, 1.58 ERA
16) Aroldis Chapman, 2012 Cincinnati Reds
IP: 71.2
ERA+: 274 (26th)
WHIP: 0.809 (15th)
WAR: 3.6 (19th)
K/9: 15.32 (2nd)
K/BB: 5.30 (18th)
OPS+ against: 25 (15th)
Total ranking points: 95
Traditional stats: 5-5, 38 stats, 1.51 ERA
17) B.J. Ryan, 2006 Toronto Blue Jays
IP: 72.1
ERA+: 335 (11th)
WHIP: 0.857 (20th)
WAR: 3.5 (21st)
K/9: 10.70 (15th)
K/BB: 4.30 (24th)
OPS+ against: 17 (9th)
Total ranking points: 100
Traditional stats: 2-2, 38 saves, 1.37 ERA
18) Hung-Chih Kuo, 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers
IP: 60
ERA+: 324 (14th)
WHIP: 0.783 (13th)
WAR: 3.1 (29th)
K/9: 10.95 (12th)
K/BB: 4.06 (27th)
OPS+ against: 15 (7th)
Total ranking points: 102
Traditional stats: 3-2, 12 saves, 1.20 ERA
19) Greg Holland, 2013 Kansas City Royals
IP: 67
ERA+: 342 (9th)
WHIP: 0.866 (23rd)
WAR: 3.1 (30th)
K/9: 13.84 (5th)
K/BB: 5.72 (13th)
OPS+ against: 31 (24th)
Total ranking points: 104
Traditional stats: 2-1, 47 saves, 1.21 ERA
20) John Smoltz, 2003 Atlanta Braves
IP: 64.1
ERA+: 385 (6th)
WHIP: 0.870 (25th)
WAR: 3.3 (26th)
K/9: 10.21 (18th)
K/BB: 9.13 (4th)
OPS+ against: 36 (27th)
Total ranking points: 106
Traditional stats: 0-2, 45 saves, 1.12 ERA
Not good enough for the top 20:
1993 Harvey (108 points)
1998 Trevor Hoffman (116 points)
2005 Rivera (117 points)
1991 Harvey (121 points)
1987 Tim Burke (123 points)
1981 Rollie Fingers (125 points)
2013 Kimbrel (130 points)
1998 Michael Jackson (140 points)
2008 Joakim Soria (145 points)
2013 Nathan (149 points)
- at least 60 innings pitched
- an ERA+ of 250 or higher
- a WHIP of 0.90 or lower
- WAR of 3 or more
- K/BB ratio of 3 or higher
All but four of those occurred since 1990, which isn't surprising because of the increased specialization of relief pitchers, with special emphasis on having a "shutdown closer."
Appearing multiple times on the list:
Bryan Harvey - 1991 with the Angels, 1993 with the Marlins
Craig Kimbrel - 2012 and 2013 with the Braves
Joe Nathan - 2006 with the Twins, 2013 with the Rangers
Mariano Rivera - 2005 and 2008 with the Yankees
I wanted to make a list of the best shutdown seasons ever, factoring in the categories listed above as well as K/9 and OPS+ against. You might notice (and even, possibly, object) that I'm neglecting saves. Sorry, but the stat is almost completely meaningless.
Here are my top 20 shutdown relief seasons in MLB history....
1) Craig Kimbrel, 2012 Atlanta Braves
IP: 62.2
ERA+: 399 (4th)
WHIP: 0.654 (3rd)
WAR: 3.3 (24th)
K/9: 16.66 (1st)
K/BB: 8.29 (6th)
OPS+ against: 1 (1st)
Total ranking points: 39
Traditional stats: 3-1, 42 saves, 1.01 ERA
2) Eric Gagne, 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers
He won the NL Cy Young for this season, and rightfully so.
IP: 82.1
ERA+: 337 (10th on the list)
WHIP: 0.692 (5th)
WAR: 3.6 (14th)
K/9: 14.98 (3rd)
K/BB: 6.85 (7th)
OPS+ against: 4 (2nd)
Total ranking points: 41
Traditional stats: 2-3, 55 saves, 1.20 ERA
3) Koji Uehara, 2013 Boston Red Sox
IP: 74.1
ERA+: 379 (7th)
WHIP: 0.565 (1st)
WAR: 3.6 (18th)
K/9: 12.23 (10th)
K/BB: 11.22 (3rd)
OPS+ against: 8 (3rd)
Total ranking points: 42
Traditional stats: 4-1, 21 saves, 1.09 ERA
4) Mariano Rivera, 2008 New York Yankees.
Incredibly, he never won a Cy Young.
IP: 70.2
ERA+: 316 (17th)
WHIP: 0.665 (4th)
WAR: 4.3 (3rd)
K/9: 9.81 (21st)
K/BB: 12.83 (2nd)
OPS+ against: 10 (5th)
Total ranking points: 52
Traditional stats: 6-5, 39 saves, 1.40 ERA
5) Jonathan Papelbon, 2006 Boston Red Sox.
IP: 68.1
ERA+: 517 (3rd)
WHIP: 0.776 (9th)
WAR: 5.0 (2nd)
K/9: 9.88 (20th)
K/BB: 5.77 (12th)
OPS+ against: 18 (12th)
Total ranking points: 58
Traditional stats: 4-2, 35 saves, 0.92 ERA
6) Dennis Eckersley, 1990 Oakland Athletics.
He won a Cy two years later, but this year was better.
IP: 73.1
ERA+: 603 (2nd)
WHIP: 0.614 (2nd)
WAR: 3.3 (27th)
K/9: 8.96 (26th)
K/BB: 18.25 (1st)
OPS+ against: 13 (6th)
Total ranking points: 64
Traditional stats: 4-2, 48 saves, 0.61 ERA
7) J.J. Putz, 2007 Seattle Mariners
IP: 71.2
ERA+: 319 (15th)
WHIP: 0.698 (6th)
WAR: 4.0 (8th)
K/9: 10.30 (17th)
K/BB: 6.31 (8th)
OPS+ against: 21 (14th)
Total ranking points: 68
Traditional stats: 6-1, 40 saves, 1.38 ERA
8) Billy Wagner, 1999 Houston Astros
IP: 74.2
ERA+: 287 (23rd)
WHIP: 0.777 (10th)
WAR: 3.8 (11th)
K/9: 14.95 (4th)
K/BB: 5.39 (17th)
OPS+ against: 10 (4th)
Total ranking points: 69
Traditional stats: 4-1, 39 saves, 1.57 ERA
9) Wade Davis, 2014 Kansas City Royals
IP: 72.0
ERA+: 399 (4th)
WHIP: 0.847 (17th)
WAR: 3.7 (16th)
K/9: 13.63 (6th)
K/BB: 4.74 (21st)
OPS+ against: 16 (8th)
Total ranking points: 72
Traditional stats: 9-2, 3 savs, 1.00 ERA
10) Fernando Rodney, 2012 Tampa Bay Rays
IP: 74.2
ERA+: 641 (1st)
WHIP: 0.777 (10th)
WAR: 3.8 (11th)
K/9: 9.16 (24th)
K/BB: 5.07 (19th)
OPS+ against: 18 (10th)
Total ranking points: 75
Traditional stats: 2-2, 48 saves, 0.60 ERA
11) Takashi Saito, 2007 Los Angeles Dodgers
IP: 64.1
ERA+: 319 (16th)
WHIP: 0.715 (7th)
WAR: 3.5 (20th)
K/9: 10.91 (13th)
K/BB: 6.00 (9th)
OPS+ against: 19 (13th)
Total ranking points: 78
Traditional stats: 2-1, 39 saves, 1.40 ERA
12) Rafael Betancourt, 2007 Cleveland Indians
IP: 79.1
ERA+: 307 (21st)
WHIP: 0.756 (8th)
WAR: 4.3 (4th)
K/9: 9.08 (25th)
K/BB: 8.89 (5th)
OPS+ against: 26 (19th)
Total ranking points: 82
Traditional stats: 5-1, 3 saves, 1.47 ERA
13) Bruce Sutter, 1977 Chicago Cubs
Like Eckersley, he won a Cy two years after his true best season.
IP: 107.1
ERA+: 328 (13th)
WHIP: 0.857 (19th)
WAR: 6.5 (1st)
K/9: 10.82 (14th)
K/BB: 5.61 (16th)
OPS+ against: 31 (23rd)
Total ranking points: 86
Traditional stats: 7-3, 31 saves, 1.34 ERA
14) Dellin Betances, 2014 New York Yankees
IP: 90.0
ERA+: 277 (25th)
WHIP: 0.778 (12th)
WAR: 3.7 (15th)
K/9: 13.50 (7th)
K/BB: 5.63 (14th)
OPS+ against: 26 (18th)
Total ranking points: 91
Traditional stats: 5-0, 1 save, 1.40 ERA
15) Joe Nathan, 2006 Minnesota Twins
IP: 68.1
ERA+: 284 (24th)
WHIP: 0.790 (14th)
WAR: 3.3 (25th)
K/9: 12.51 (9th)
K/BB: 5.94 (10th)
OPS+ against: 18 (12th)
Total ranking points: 94
Traditional stats: 7-0, 36 saves, 1.58 ERA
16) Aroldis Chapman, 2012 Cincinnati Reds
IP: 71.2
ERA+: 274 (26th)
WHIP: 0.809 (15th)
WAR: 3.6 (19th)
K/9: 15.32 (2nd)
K/BB: 5.30 (18th)
OPS+ against: 25 (15th)
Total ranking points: 95
Traditional stats: 5-5, 38 stats, 1.51 ERA
17) B.J. Ryan, 2006 Toronto Blue Jays
IP: 72.1
ERA+: 335 (11th)
WHIP: 0.857 (20th)
WAR: 3.5 (21st)
K/9: 10.70 (15th)
K/BB: 4.30 (24th)
OPS+ against: 17 (9th)
Total ranking points: 100
Traditional stats: 2-2, 38 saves, 1.37 ERA
18) Hung-Chih Kuo, 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers
IP: 60
ERA+: 324 (14th)
WHIP: 0.783 (13th)
WAR: 3.1 (29th)
K/9: 10.95 (12th)
K/BB: 4.06 (27th)
OPS+ against: 15 (7th)
Total ranking points: 102
Traditional stats: 3-2, 12 saves, 1.20 ERA
19) Greg Holland, 2013 Kansas City Royals
IP: 67
ERA+: 342 (9th)
WHIP: 0.866 (23rd)
WAR: 3.1 (30th)
K/9: 13.84 (5th)
K/BB: 5.72 (13th)
OPS+ against: 31 (24th)
Total ranking points: 104
Traditional stats: 2-1, 47 saves, 1.21 ERA
20) John Smoltz, 2003 Atlanta Braves
IP: 64.1
ERA+: 385 (6th)
WHIP: 0.870 (25th)
WAR: 3.3 (26th)
K/9: 10.21 (18th)
K/BB: 9.13 (4th)
OPS+ against: 36 (27th)
Total ranking points: 106
Traditional stats: 0-2, 45 saves, 1.12 ERA
Not good enough for the top 20:
1993 Harvey (108 points)
1998 Trevor Hoffman (116 points)
2005 Rivera (117 points)
1991 Harvey (121 points)
1987 Tim Burke (123 points)
1981 Rollie Fingers (125 points)
2013 Kimbrel (130 points)
1998 Michael Jackson (140 points)
2008 Joakim Soria (145 points)
2013 Nathan (149 points)
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Reds' 2012 salaries vs. 2011 WAR
I wanted to look at the value the Reds can expect to get for their money this season, using Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement, and player salaries from Cot's MLB Contracts (with pro-rated bonuses, deferred money, etc. included).
If you want to see the Reds' committed cash for 2012 and beyond, see:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj1FG9GPVGFzrJykhM94ogw&output=html
First, I divided everyone into two groups.
Group 1 = everyone with 6+ years of service time, or with salary above $600,000
Group 2 = everyone else
I used 2011 WAR, and obviously 2012 will differ...the whole point of the exercise is to use this as a baseline and see how everything ultimately shakes out in comparison.
GROUP 1
For Group 1, the entire amount of money committed = 81.243 million dollars
For Group 1, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 30.3
Millions spent per win above replacement = 2.68
More breakdowns for Group 1
Millions per WAR, hitters only = 2.08
Millions per WAR, pitchers only = 4.04 (thanks largely to Arroyo)
Millions per WAR, returning Reds only = 2.54
Let's take a look at individual players in Group 1, ranked by millions per WAR, going from best value to worst value. The players at the very bottom have no values assigned, because dividing by zero (or negative numbers) isn't possible (or logical).
1) Miguel Cairo - 0.53
2) Ryan Hanigan - 0.6
3) Sean Marshall - 1.11
4) Jay Bruce - 1.52
5) Joey Votto - 1.59 - will jump to around 3 million per WAR next season, assuming production is the same
6) Homer Bailey - 1.62
7) Johnny Cueto - 1.93
8) Bill Bray - 2.03
9) Brandon Phillips - 2.04 - but can he keep producing on both offense and defense like he did in 2011?
(GROUP 1 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = POOR VALUE FOR MONEY)
10) Nick Masset - 4.00 - had a bad year in 2011, hopefully bounces back
11) Ryan Madson - 5.00 - and actually worse, now that he's out
12) Aroldis Chapman - 5.83 - this number would undoubtedly improve if he started instead
13) Scott Rolen - 6.28 - a healthy year would help a great deal
14) Ryan Ludwick - 8.33 - Reds are taking a risk, hoping he can post more than 0.3 WAR
(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)
15) Wilson Valdez
16) Jose Arredondo
17) Willie Harris
18) Paul Janish
19) Bronson Arroyo - being paid 12 million
Note that the salaries of Valdez, Arredondo, Harris and Janish are all under 1 million, so at least the amount of money "wasted" (if they don't improve in 2012) would not be terribly painful. Also note that neither Madson nor Janish is on the major league active roster.
GROUP 2
For Group 2, the entire amount of money committed = 5.49 million dollars
For Group 2, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 11.5
Millions spent per win above replacement = 0.48
Obviously, any positive contributions from this second group (which are a necessity for any team) will make the millions/WAR appear much more favorable than Group 1. Teams still deserve some credit for picking the right guys though.
Individual players, from best value to worst value (millions per WAR):
1) Mat Latos - 0.17
2) Drew Stubbs - 0.20
3) Chris Heisey - 0.31
4) Mike Leake - 0.34
5) Alfredo Simon - 0.44
(GROUP 2 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = LESS VALUE FOR MONEY)
6) Zack Cozart - 0.69 - but with a healthy year, he'll be one of the best values on the team
7) Todd Frazier - 0.69 - we all like the guy, but very much hope he won't be needed
8) Sam LeCure - 0.98
(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)
9) Andrew Brackman
10) Jordan Smith
11) Logan Ondrusek
Note that Brackman, Frazier and Smith are not on the active major league roster. Also keep in mind that, at such comparatively small salaries, even a modest improvement this season for guys like Ondrusek or LeCure would make them excellent proportional values.
If you want to see the Reds' committed cash for 2012 and beyond, see:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj1FG9GPVGFzrJykhM94ogw&output=html
First, I divided everyone into two groups.
Group 1 = everyone with 6+ years of service time, or with salary above $600,000
Group 2 = everyone else
I used 2011 WAR, and obviously 2012 will differ...the whole point of the exercise is to use this as a baseline and see how everything ultimately shakes out in comparison.
GROUP 1
For Group 1, the entire amount of money committed = 81.243 million dollars
For Group 1, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 30.3
Millions spent per win above replacement = 2.68
More breakdowns for Group 1
Millions per WAR, hitters only = 2.08
Millions per WAR, pitchers only = 4.04 (thanks largely to Arroyo)
Millions per WAR, returning Reds only = 2.54
Let's take a look at individual players in Group 1, ranked by millions per WAR, going from best value to worst value. The players at the very bottom have no values assigned, because dividing by zero (or negative numbers) isn't possible (or logical).
1) Miguel Cairo - 0.53
2) Ryan Hanigan - 0.6
3) Sean Marshall - 1.11
4) Jay Bruce - 1.52
5) Joey Votto - 1.59 - will jump to around 3 million per WAR next season, assuming production is the same
6) Homer Bailey - 1.62
7) Johnny Cueto - 1.93
8) Bill Bray - 2.03
9) Brandon Phillips - 2.04 - but can he keep producing on both offense and defense like he did in 2011?
(GROUP 1 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = POOR VALUE FOR MONEY)
10) Nick Masset - 4.00 - had a bad year in 2011, hopefully bounces back
11) Ryan Madson - 5.00 - and actually worse, now that he's out
12) Aroldis Chapman - 5.83 - this number would undoubtedly improve if he started instead
13) Scott Rolen - 6.28 - a healthy year would help a great deal
14) Ryan Ludwick - 8.33 - Reds are taking a risk, hoping he can post more than 0.3 WAR
(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)
15) Wilson Valdez
16) Jose Arredondo
17) Willie Harris
18) Paul Janish
19) Bronson Arroyo - being paid 12 million
Note that the salaries of Valdez, Arredondo, Harris and Janish are all under 1 million, so at least the amount of money "wasted" (if they don't improve in 2012) would not be terribly painful. Also note that neither Madson nor Janish is on the major league active roster.
GROUP 2
For Group 2, the entire amount of money committed = 5.49 million dollars
For Group 2, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 11.5
Millions spent per win above replacement = 0.48
Obviously, any positive contributions from this second group (which are a necessity for any team) will make the millions/WAR appear much more favorable than Group 1. Teams still deserve some credit for picking the right guys though.
Individual players, from best value to worst value (millions per WAR):
1) Mat Latos - 0.17
2) Drew Stubbs - 0.20
3) Chris Heisey - 0.31
4) Mike Leake - 0.34
5) Alfredo Simon - 0.44
(GROUP 2 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = LESS VALUE FOR MONEY)
6) Zack Cozart - 0.69 - but with a healthy year, he'll be one of the best values on the team
7) Todd Frazier - 0.69 - we all like the guy, but very much hope he won't be needed
8) Sam LeCure - 0.98
(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)
9) Andrew Brackman
10) Jordan Smith
11) Logan Ondrusek
Note that Brackman, Frazier and Smith are not on the active major league roster. Also keep in mind that, at such comparatively small salaries, even a modest improvement this season for guys like Ondrusek or LeCure would make them excellent proportional values.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Reds 2012 WAR: Position Players
Using Fangraphs' wonderful WAR Graphs tool, here are some charts of the careers (by age) of Cincinnati's main projected infielders, outfielders, and pitchers for 2012.
Positions 3-6
Note: Both Cozart and Frazier were 25, with WAR of 0.7 on this graph.
My thoughts on this: We'd obviously be delighted to get the same sort of production in 2012 from the right side of our infield that we got in 2011. It's difficult to imagine the left side doing any worse...one would have to think that either Rolen or Cozart will stay healthy and productive enough to boost their WAR. Outside of those two possibilities, I don't have much faith in any combination of Janish/Francisco/Valdez/Frazier/Cairo/call-ups to provide big numbers.
Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 13.1 (all these totals according to baseball-reference, not Fangraphs)
My estimate for 2012: 15.0
Positions 7-9
My thoughts on this: The entire outfield really needs to prove itself. Bruce is clearly the class of this group but needs more consistency. He and Stubbs went downhill from 2010 to 2011 (Bruce mostly due to defense, Stubbs mostly due to strikeouts). It really feels like THE year for both of them to show improvement (at least getting very close to a return to 2010 levels) or they may never be quite the players for which we hoped. I'm fine with Ludwick as a relatively low-risk acquisition, although obviously all of us wanted a splashier solution in LF...hopefully he and Heisey can push each other to at least a modestly successful performance. Alonso, Sappelt, Lewis and Gomes are all gone from the 2011 group.
Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 6.2
My estimate for 2012: 8.0
Catchers
Note: Mesoraco was 23, with WAR of -0.1 on this graph.
My thoughts on this: Ramon's offense will be missed, but Hanigan is still a good contact hitter and solid defensively, and Devin has nowhere to go but up.
Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 3.6
My estimate for 2012: 4.0
Total WAR estimate for position players: 27 (+4.1 from 2011)
Conclusion: As everyone knows, the Two Princes (if you want to call me baby, just go ahead now) have moved to the AL and Brauny Lad is a 'roider on suspension. While some want to automatically crown the Reds the offensive champions of the 2012 NL Central, we still need to see more out of guys other than Votto and Phillips. One thing I always harp on is the fact that the Reds offense is extremely opportunistic and therefore somewhat overrated. I do feel they will lead the NL in runs scored in 2012 (they were tied for second with Colorado, 27 runs behind St. Louis).
Positions 3-6
My thoughts on this: We'd obviously be delighted to get the same sort of production in 2012 from the right side of our infield that we got in 2011. It's difficult to imagine the left side doing any worse...one would have to think that either Rolen or Cozart will stay healthy and productive enough to boost their WAR. Outside of those two possibilities, I don't have much faith in any combination of Janish/Francisco/Valdez/Frazier/Cairo/call-ups to provide big numbers.
Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 13.1 (all these totals according to baseball-reference, not Fangraphs)
My estimate for 2012: 15.0
Positions 7-9
My thoughts on this: The entire outfield really needs to prove itself. Bruce is clearly the class of this group but needs more consistency. He and Stubbs went downhill from 2010 to 2011 (Bruce mostly due to defense, Stubbs mostly due to strikeouts). It really feels like THE year for both of them to show improvement (at least getting very close to a return to 2010 levels) or they may never be quite the players for which we hoped. I'm fine with Ludwick as a relatively low-risk acquisition, although obviously all of us wanted a splashier solution in LF...hopefully he and Heisey can push each other to at least a modestly successful performance. Alonso, Sappelt, Lewis and Gomes are all gone from the 2011 group.
Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 6.2
My estimate for 2012: 8.0
Catchers
My thoughts on this: Ramon's offense will be missed, but Hanigan is still a good contact hitter and solid defensively, and Devin has nowhere to go but up.
Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 3.6
My estimate for 2012: 4.0
Total WAR estimate for position players: 27 (+4.1 from 2011)
Conclusion: As everyone knows, the Two Princes (if you want to call me baby, just go ahead now) have moved to the AL and Brauny Lad is a 'roider on suspension. While some want to automatically crown the Reds the offensive champions of the 2012 NL Central, we still need to see more out of guys other than Votto and Phillips. One thing I always harp on is the fact that the Reds offense is extremely opportunistic and therefore somewhat overrated. I do feel they will lead the NL in runs scored in 2012 (they were tied for second with Colorado, 27 runs behind St. Louis).
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Reds' 2011 offensive drop-off
An assertion commonly made about the failures of the 2011 Reds is that the lack of quality pitching was the primary reason. I wouldn't dispute any of the following:
- pitching was, and remains, a problem for making it to the postseason
- if the Reds were to make it back to the playoffs, they'd have even more problems because Cueto is the only guy who even comes close to measuring up with the top 3 of other staffs
- obtaining a #1 or #2 starter HAS to be an offseason priority
In spite of all this, I would make the argument that offense was a bigger determinant of the drop-off from 2010 to 2011. The simple counter-argument is "hey, they were second in the NL in runs per game, while the pitching staff was 12th in the league in ERA." I am more than aware of those numbers, but one thing I've harped on all season has been the variation from game to game. Overall the Reds have indeed scored a lot of runs, but they've also come up empty a lot.
Let's compare the Reds' hitting and pitching performances with 2010, and then with this year's NL playoff teams.
2011 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.13) - 41% (67 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 62% (100 of 162 games)
2010 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.33) - 49% (80 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 65% (106 of 162 games)
One important note is that virtually any team will have a higher "success rate" for pitching than hitting simply by nature of this mathematical approach. You can't read much into the comparison of hitting vs. pitching for one given team, but comparing across teams does give you a good idea of where they stand. The numbers above clearly show that hitting took a bigger dive than pitching.
More evidence:
- Pitching WAR actually went up from 2010 to 2011, from 7.5 to 10.2
- Offensive WAR went down dramatically, from 28.5 to 21.6
- Almost all positions saw a drop in OPS: C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF and CF. Only 2B and RF went up.
We all know the reasons why...injuries (Rolen and Cozart), backsliding performance (Janish and Stubbs), and easily foreseeable failure (Renteria and Gomes).
How the Reds rank this season compared to the playoff teams...
Successful hitting games:
St. Louis 75
Milwaukee 72
Cincinnati 67
Philadelphia 65
Arizona 65
Successful pitching/defense games:
Philadelphia 121
Milwaukee 104
Cincinnati 100
St. Louis 98
Arizona 97
Certainly, Cincinnati's numbers were buoyed a bit by the fact they allowed half the unearned runs (42) that St. Louis did (84) with its shoddy defense. Still, they don't appear to be dramatically behind in either category.
Some timeliness would certainly help - the Reds were by far the worst of these five teams in one-run games, and also failed to capitalize on good pitching performances when they got them, as seen here:
Winning percentage in games when allowing 3 or fewer runs:
Arizona .872 (68-10)
St. Louis .851 (63-11)
Milwaukee .828 (72-15)
Philadelphia .802 (81-20)
Cincinnati .701 (54-23)
Not that this prediction is particularly risky, but I'm highly confident that neither Arizona nor Milwaukee will come within 5 of this season's win totals in 2012. Arizona not only bested its Pythagorean expectation (88) by 6, but the numbers mentioned earlier for games with good pitching and hitting would suggest (by correlation) that they'd win far fewer. Milwaukee should still be good, but are more realistically an 88-90 win club with their current roster than a 96-win team. They might repeat, but it won't be as easy as this year.
I'll end this discussion with a comparison of WAR totals:
Philadelphia - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 30 for pitching = 52.2
Milwaukee - 24.3 for hitting/defense, 17.8 for pitching = 42.1
St. Louis - 30.0 for hitting/defense, 11.0 for pitching = 41
Arizona - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 13.7 for pitching = 35.8
Cincinnati - 24.8 for hitting/defense, 10.2 for pitching = 35
If you add these numbers to a "replacement level" squad that would win 30% (48.6) of its games, you would get the following expectations:
Philadelphia - 101 (actually won 102)
Milwaukee - 91 (actually won 96)
St. Louis - 90 (actually won 90)
Arizona - 84 (actually won 94, Pythag expectation was 88)
Cincinnati - 84 (actually won 79, Pythag expectation was 83)
One last prediction: If Cincinnati remains essentially the same squad next season, they should win 84-85 games but that won't be enough to compete for the playoffs. If they solve at least two of the three main problem positions (SS/3B/LF) they will compete for the division title but won't be able to win a playoff round. If they solve a couple of those positions AND add a high-caliber starting pitcher or two, they stand an excellent chance of making their first NLCS appearance since 1995.
- pitching was, and remains, a problem for making it to the postseason
- if the Reds were to make it back to the playoffs, they'd have even more problems because Cueto is the only guy who even comes close to measuring up with the top 3 of other staffs
- obtaining a #1 or #2 starter HAS to be an offseason priority
In spite of all this, I would make the argument that offense was a bigger determinant of the drop-off from 2010 to 2011. The simple counter-argument is "hey, they were second in the NL in runs per game, while the pitching staff was 12th in the league in ERA." I am more than aware of those numbers, but one thing I've harped on all season has been the variation from game to game. Overall the Reds have indeed scored a lot of runs, but they've also come up empty a lot.
Let's compare the Reds' hitting and pitching performances with 2010, and then with this year's NL playoff teams.
2011 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.13) - 41% (67 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 62% (100 of 162 games)
2010 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.33) - 49% (80 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 65% (106 of 162 games)
One important note is that virtually any team will have a higher "success rate" for pitching than hitting simply by nature of this mathematical approach. You can't read much into the comparison of hitting vs. pitching for one given team, but comparing across teams does give you a good idea of where they stand. The numbers above clearly show that hitting took a bigger dive than pitching.
More evidence:
- Pitching WAR actually went up from 2010 to 2011, from 7.5 to 10.2
- Offensive WAR went down dramatically, from 28.5 to 21.6
- Almost all positions saw a drop in OPS: C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF and CF. Only 2B and RF went up.
We all know the reasons why...injuries (Rolen and Cozart), backsliding performance (Janish and Stubbs), and easily foreseeable failure (Renteria and Gomes).
How the Reds rank this season compared to the playoff teams...
Successful hitting games:
St. Louis 75
Milwaukee 72
Cincinnati 67
Philadelphia 65
Arizona 65
Successful pitching/defense games:
Philadelphia 121
Milwaukee 104
Cincinnati 100
St. Louis 98
Arizona 97
Certainly, Cincinnati's numbers were buoyed a bit by the fact they allowed half the unearned runs (42) that St. Louis did (84) with its shoddy defense. Still, they don't appear to be dramatically behind in either category.
Some timeliness would certainly help - the Reds were by far the worst of these five teams in one-run games, and also failed to capitalize on good pitching performances when they got them, as seen here:
Winning percentage in games when allowing 3 or fewer runs:
Arizona .872 (68-10)
St. Louis .851 (63-11)
Milwaukee .828 (72-15)
Philadelphia .802 (81-20)
Cincinnati .701 (54-23)
Not that this prediction is particularly risky, but I'm highly confident that neither Arizona nor Milwaukee will come within 5 of this season's win totals in 2012. Arizona not only bested its Pythagorean expectation (88) by 6, but the numbers mentioned earlier for games with good pitching and hitting would suggest (by correlation) that they'd win far fewer. Milwaukee should still be good, but are more realistically an 88-90 win club with their current roster than a 96-win team. They might repeat, but it won't be as easy as this year.
I'll end this discussion with a comparison of WAR totals:
Philadelphia - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 30 for pitching = 52.2
Milwaukee - 24.3 for hitting/defense, 17.8 for pitching = 42.1
St. Louis - 30.0 for hitting/defense, 11.0 for pitching = 41
Arizona - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 13.7 for pitching = 35.8
Cincinnati - 24.8 for hitting/defense, 10.2 for pitching = 35
If you add these numbers to a "replacement level" squad that would win 30% (48.6) of its games, you would get the following expectations:
Philadelphia - 101 (actually won 102)
Milwaukee - 91 (actually won 96)
St. Louis - 90 (actually won 90)
Arizona - 84 (actually won 94, Pythag expectation was 88)
Cincinnati - 84 (actually won 79, Pythag expectation was 83)
One last prediction: If Cincinnati remains essentially the same squad next season, they should win 84-85 games but that won't be enough to compete for the playoffs. If they solve at least two of the three main problem positions (SS/3B/LF) they will compete for the division title but won't be able to win a playoff round. If they solve a couple of those positions AND add a high-caliber starting pitcher or two, they stand an excellent chance of making their first NLCS appearance since 1995.
2011 Reds with 1+ WAR change from 2010
The positive shifts in WAR from 2010 to 2011:
1) Leake -0.5 to 2.1
2) Cueto 2.0 to 4.3
3) Cordero 0.4 to 2.3
4) Phillips 2.6 to 4.2
5) Cairo 0.4 to 1.7
The negative shifts:
1) Bruce 4.6 to 1.3 (mostly due to drop in defensive value)
2) Rolen 3.5 to 0.6 (mostly due to injury)
3) Arroyo 2.1 to -0.5 (mostly due to...um...getting hammered almost every time he pitched)
4) Stubbs 5.2 to 3.0 (a combination of all the strikeouts and less defensive value)
5) Volquez 0.5 to -1.0
6) Maloney 0.4 to -0.8
The sum of all the changes listed here: -4.0 WAR
1) Leake -0.5 to 2.1
2) Cueto 2.0 to 4.3
3) Cordero 0.4 to 2.3
4) Phillips 2.6 to 4.2
5) Cairo 0.4 to 1.7
The negative shifts:
1) Bruce 4.6 to 1.3 (mostly due to drop in defensive value)
2) Rolen 3.5 to 0.6 (mostly due to injury)
3) Arroyo 2.1 to -0.5 (mostly due to...um...getting hammered almost every time he pitched)
4) Stubbs 5.2 to 3.0 (a combination of all the strikeouts and less defensive value)
5) Volquez 0.5 to -1.0
6) Maloney 0.4 to -0.8
The sum of all the changes listed here: -4.0 WAR
2011 Cincinnati Reds MVPs and LVPs
This one is based only on Wins Above Replacement.
Offensive WAR
MVP: Votto 5.9
LVP: Janish -1.3
Defensive WAR
MVP: Janish 1.3
LVP: Bruce -1.1 (one of the more surprising developments this year was his drop in defensive value)
Overall WAR
MVP: Votto 6.6
LVP: Francisco -0.4
Pitching WAR
MVP: Cueto 4.3
LVP: Volquez -1.0
Offensive WAR
MVP: Votto 5.9
LVP: Janish -1.3
Defensive WAR
MVP: Janish 1.3
LVP: Bruce -1.1 (one of the more surprising developments this year was his drop in defensive value)
Overall WAR
MVP: Votto 6.6
LVP: Francisco -0.4
Pitching WAR
MVP: Cueto 4.3
LVP: Volquez -1.0
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Paul Janish's 2011 in perspective
I'm a fan of Cincinnati Reds players to a fault. Heck, I'll even forgive Mike Leake for his shopping habits. Much as I've tried to look past Janish's shortcomings at short (well...much more so at the plate than defensively, where he's fine), I had morbid curiosity get the better of me. I just had to examine how his 2011 season stands up historically.
I went to baseball-reference's season finder and used the following settings:
- at least 250 plate appearances (meaning the player was given the chance to really do damage)
- zero or negative WAR
- zero or negative WPA
- zero or negative base-out runs
- OPS+ of lower than 80
For the Cincinnati Reds from 1950 to 2011 (the only seasons available for some of the statistics), this search produced 54 results. Taking all the categories into account, I judged these five to be the worst of all time:
1) Tommy Helms (2B, 1970) - the worst WAR, WPA and base-out runs on the entire list. He actually won the Gold Glove at second base that year.
2) Bobby Tolan (CF/RF, 1973) - second worst WAR, third worst base-out runs, fifth worst WPA
3) Paul Householder (RF, 1982) - the second worst WPA and second worst base-out runs
4) Darrel Chaney (SS, 1973) - the worst batting average and worst OPS+. He was the backup to Concepcion, who appears three times on this list of 54 - but with nowhere close to the ineptitude of these top five.
5) Juan Castro (SS/UT, 2001) - second worst OPS+, third worst WAR
Thanks to a late-season offensive "burst" by Janish to raise his average to .214 and OPS+ to 43, he broke his way out of the bottom five. His season is still among the worst offensive displays ever by a Red, but not Hall of Shame-caliber.
I went to baseball-reference's season finder and used the following settings:
- at least 250 plate appearances (meaning the player was given the chance to really do damage)
- zero or negative WAR
- zero or negative WPA
- zero or negative base-out runs
- OPS+ of lower than 80
For the Cincinnati Reds from 1950 to 2011 (the only seasons available for some of the statistics), this search produced 54 results. Taking all the categories into account, I judged these five to be the worst of all time:
1) Tommy Helms (2B, 1970) - the worst WAR, WPA and base-out runs on the entire list. He actually won the Gold Glove at second base that year.
2) Bobby Tolan (CF/RF, 1973) - second worst WAR, third worst base-out runs, fifth worst WPA
3) Paul Householder (RF, 1982) - the second worst WPA and second worst base-out runs
4) Darrel Chaney (SS, 1973) - the worst batting average and worst OPS+. He was the backup to Concepcion, who appears three times on this list of 54 - but with nowhere close to the ineptitude of these top five.
5) Juan Castro (SS/UT, 2001) - second worst OPS+, third worst WAR
Thanks to a late-season offensive "burst" by Janish to raise his average to .214 and OPS+ to 43, he broke his way out of the bottom five. His season is still among the worst offensive displays ever by a Red, but not Hall of Shame-caliber.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Most career WAR among Cincinnati Reds pitchers
This list doesn't discriminate between starters and relievers, because no one who pitched solely as a reliever accumulated enough WAR to make the top 10.
1) Noodles Hahn, 39.6 in 7 seasons
2) Jim Maloney, 35.1 in 11 seasons
3) Dolf Luque, 35 in 12 seasons
4) Jose Rijo, 33.7 in 10 seasons
5) Paul Derringer, 31.2 in 10 seasons
6) Bucky Walters, 31.2, in 11 seasons
7) Gary Nolan, 28.2 in 10 seasons
8) Mario Soto, 26.9 in 12 seasons
9) Joe Nuxhall, 25.4 in 15 seasons
10) Bob Purkey, 24.9 in 7 seasons
10) Bob Ewing, 24.9 in 8 seasons
If he stays around and stays healthy, it's likely we'll see Johnny Cueto on this list in a few years.
1) Noodles Hahn, 39.6 in 7 seasons
2) Jim Maloney, 35.1 in 11 seasons
3) Dolf Luque, 35 in 12 seasons
4) Jose Rijo, 33.7 in 10 seasons
5) Paul Derringer, 31.2 in 10 seasons
6) Bucky Walters, 31.2, in 11 seasons
7) Gary Nolan, 28.2 in 10 seasons
8) Mario Soto, 26.9 in 12 seasons
9) Joe Nuxhall, 25.4 in 15 seasons
10) Bob Purkey, 24.9 in 7 seasons
10) Bob Ewing, 24.9 in 8 seasons
If he stays around and stays healthy, it's likely we'll see Johnny Cueto on this list in a few years.
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds starting pitchers
Starting pitching is even more difficult to compare across eras. While stats like complete games may be valuable to a comparison of modern pitchers, obviously pitchers in the 1900s and 1910s will dominate the rankings. An extra problem is that the Cy Young award hasn't been around as long as the MVP award (only since 1956). I did what I could to even the playing field, giving extra weight to WAR and making some subjective judgments of what certain pitchers might have accomplished in today's game.
1) Bucky Walters, 1939. No Cincinnati Red has ever won a Cy Young Award, but Walters is the only one with an NL MVP. He led the league in wins (most ever by a Red pitcher), complete games and ERA+. That season he also accumulated 7.7 WAR.
2) Dolf Luque, 1923. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt...neither the MVP nor the Cy existed yet, but I'm sure he would've won one or both this season. After all, he led the league in wins, shutouts and ERA. He also posted 9.9 WAR, easily the highest ever by a Reds pitcher.
3) Jose Rijo, 1993. The second-highest pitching WAR ever by a Red - 8.6. He finished 5th in Cy voting and got some MVP votes. Led the league in strikeouts.
4) Mario Soto, 1983. Finished second in Cy voting. This season ranks him second among all Red starting pitchers in average game score, third in quality start percentage, and fourth in strikeouts.
5) Tom Seaver, 1977. Most of his best seasons were with the Mets, making him very similar to Ken Griffey, Jr., but his first (incomplete) season with the Reds was superb. He finished third in Cy voting after compiling 5.4 WAR in Cincinnati and 2.2 in New York. He led the league in WHIP and his 1977 season ranks first among all Reds pitchers in average game score.
6) Jim Maloney, 1965. 8.0 WAR. This season ranks third among Red pitchers in strikeouts and average game score.
7) Ewell Blackwell, 1947. 8.3 WAR.
8) Mario Soto, 1982. 7.0 WAR, most strikeouts ever by a Red pitcher.
9) Bob Purkey, 1962. 7.2 WAR, led the league in win percentage.
10) Noodles Hahn, 1902. He had some great seasons at the turn of the century for the Reds, and this one rated the best in terms of WAR (7.7).
Others worth mentioning:
Gary Nolan, 1967 and 1972
Jim Maloney, 1966
Bucky Walters, 1940
Noodles Hahn, 1901, 1903 and 1904
Fred Toney, 1915
Danny Jackson, 1988
Eppa Rixey, 1923 and 1925
Elmer Riddle, 1941
1) Bucky Walters, 1939. No Cincinnati Red has ever won a Cy Young Award, but Walters is the only one with an NL MVP. He led the league in wins (most ever by a Red pitcher), complete games and ERA+. That season he also accumulated 7.7 WAR.
2) Dolf Luque, 1923. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt...neither the MVP nor the Cy existed yet, but I'm sure he would've won one or both this season. After all, he led the league in wins, shutouts and ERA. He also posted 9.9 WAR, easily the highest ever by a Reds pitcher.
3) Jose Rijo, 1993. The second-highest pitching WAR ever by a Red - 8.6. He finished 5th in Cy voting and got some MVP votes. Led the league in strikeouts.
4) Mario Soto, 1983. Finished second in Cy voting. This season ranks him second among all Red starting pitchers in average game score, third in quality start percentage, and fourth in strikeouts.
5) Tom Seaver, 1977. Most of his best seasons were with the Mets, making him very similar to Ken Griffey, Jr., but his first (incomplete) season with the Reds was superb. He finished third in Cy voting after compiling 5.4 WAR in Cincinnati and 2.2 in New York. He led the league in WHIP and his 1977 season ranks first among all Reds pitchers in average game score.
6) Jim Maloney, 1965. 8.0 WAR. This season ranks third among Red pitchers in strikeouts and average game score.
7) Ewell Blackwell, 1947. 8.3 WAR.
8) Mario Soto, 1982. 7.0 WAR, most strikeouts ever by a Red pitcher.
9) Bob Purkey, 1962. 7.2 WAR, led the league in win percentage.
10) Noodles Hahn, 1902. He had some great seasons at the turn of the century for the Reds, and this one rated the best in terms of WAR (7.7).
Others worth mentioning:
Gary Nolan, 1967 and 1972
Jim Maloney, 1966
Bucky Walters, 1940
Noodles Hahn, 1901, 1903 and 1904
Fred Toney, 1915
Danny Jackson, 1988
Eppa Rixey, 1923 and 1925
Elmer Riddle, 1941
Most career WAR among Cincinnati Reds position players
These stats, as usual, have been collected from baseball-reference. Only seasons with the Reds are included.
1) Pete Rose - 74.6 wins above replacement in 19 seasons
2) Johnny Bench - 71.3 in 17 seasons
3) Barry Larkin - 68.9 in 19 seasons
4) Frank Robinson - 61.5 in 10 seasons
5) Joe Morgan - 61.3 in 8 seasons
6) Vada Pinson - 45.1 in 11 seasons
7) Tony Perez - 43.8 in 16 seasons
8) Edd Roush - 41.1 in 12 seasons
9) Heinie Groh - 38.7 in 9 seasons
10) George Foster - 38.1 in 11 seasons
11) Dave Concepcion - 33.6 in 19 seasons
12) Lonny Frey - 30.4 in 7 seasons
13) Ted Kluszewski - 29.7 in 11 seasons
14) Eric Davis - 29.4 in 9 seasons
15) Frank McCormick - 29.0 in 10 seasons
16) Ernie Lombardi - 27.1 in 10 seasons
17) Ken Griffey Sr. - 23.7 in 12 seasons
18) Adam Dunn - 22.2 in 8 seasons
19) Reggie Sanders - 21.6 in 8 seasons
20) Ival Goodman - 21.3 in 8 seasons
There you have it - 20 Reds position players with 20+ accumulated WAR. Soon to break on to this list (and hopefully sticking around in Cincinnati to reach the top ten) is Joey Votto (19.8 WAR). Rose, Bench and Larkin make a pretty awesome top 3 - clearly the kings of combined success and longevity in the Queen City. Then you have Robinson and Morgan, who dominate this list on a WAR-per-season basis and would easily be #1 and 2 if they'd spent their whole careers in Cincinnati.
1) Pete Rose - 74.6 wins above replacement in 19 seasons
2) Johnny Bench - 71.3 in 17 seasons
3) Barry Larkin - 68.9 in 19 seasons
4) Frank Robinson - 61.5 in 10 seasons
5) Joe Morgan - 61.3 in 8 seasons
6) Vada Pinson - 45.1 in 11 seasons
7) Tony Perez - 43.8 in 16 seasons
8) Edd Roush - 41.1 in 12 seasons
9) Heinie Groh - 38.7 in 9 seasons
10) George Foster - 38.1 in 11 seasons
11) Dave Concepcion - 33.6 in 19 seasons
12) Lonny Frey - 30.4 in 7 seasons
13) Ted Kluszewski - 29.7 in 11 seasons
14) Eric Davis - 29.4 in 9 seasons
15) Frank McCormick - 29.0 in 10 seasons
16) Ernie Lombardi - 27.1 in 10 seasons
17) Ken Griffey Sr. - 23.7 in 12 seasons
18) Adam Dunn - 22.2 in 8 seasons
19) Reggie Sanders - 21.6 in 8 seasons
20) Ival Goodman - 21.3 in 8 seasons
There you have it - 20 Reds position players with 20+ accumulated WAR. Soon to break on to this list (and hopefully sticking around in Cincinnati to reach the top ten) is Joey Votto (19.8 WAR). Rose, Bench and Larkin make a pretty awesome top 3 - clearly the kings of combined success and longevity in the Queen City. Then you have Robinson and Morgan, who dominate this list on a WAR-per-season basis and would easily be #1 and 2 if they'd spent their whole careers in Cincinnati.
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds right fielders
The last of positions 2 through 9...leaving only the pitching seasons to analyze next. The glory decade for right field was most definitely the 1960s.
1) Frank Robinson, 1962. Like Barry Larkin's 1996 season, his post-MVP year was better. This season ranks first among all Red RF seasons in WAR (8.5), runs (led the league), doubles (led the league), OPS (led the league) and slugging (led the league). Second in HR, BA and OBP.
2) Frank Robinson, 1961. His NL MVP season. 7.6 WAR, led the league in slugging and OPS. Both stats rank second to his 1962 season.
3) Pete Rose, 1969. 6.9 WAR. First among all Red RF seasons in batting average, hits and OBP. Led the league in runs scored and batting average. Won a Gold Glove.
The best of the rest:
4) Reggie Sanders, 1995. 6.7 WAR. Finished sixth in MVP voting.
5) Frank Robinson, 1964. 7.6 WAR. 4th in MVP voting.
6) Dave Parker, 1985. 2nd in MVP voting. Led the league in doubles and RBI.
7) Wally Post, 1955. 5.3 WAR. First among Red RF seasons in HR.
8) Pete Rose, 1970. Won a Gold Glove, finished 7th in MVP voting.
9) Babe Herman, 1932. 5.5 WAR. Led the league in triples.
10) Ken Griffey, 1976. Batted .336 for the World Series champs.
Others worth mentioning:
Harry Heilmann, 1930
Pete Rose, 1968
Ival Goodman, 1938 and 1939
Frank Robinson, 1965
Sam Crawford, 1901 and 1902
1) Frank Robinson, 1962. Like Barry Larkin's 1996 season, his post-MVP year was better. This season ranks first among all Red RF seasons in WAR (8.5), runs (led the league), doubles (led the league), OPS (led the league) and slugging (led the league). Second in HR, BA and OBP.
2) Frank Robinson, 1961. His NL MVP season. 7.6 WAR, led the league in slugging and OPS. Both stats rank second to his 1962 season.
3) Pete Rose, 1969. 6.9 WAR. First among all Red RF seasons in batting average, hits and OBP. Led the league in runs scored and batting average. Won a Gold Glove.
The best of the rest:
4) Reggie Sanders, 1995. 6.7 WAR. Finished sixth in MVP voting.
5) Frank Robinson, 1964. 7.6 WAR. 4th in MVP voting.
6) Dave Parker, 1985. 2nd in MVP voting. Led the league in doubles and RBI.
7) Wally Post, 1955. 5.3 WAR. First among Red RF seasons in HR.
8) Pete Rose, 1970. Won a Gold Glove, finished 7th in MVP voting.
9) Babe Herman, 1932. 5.5 WAR. Led the league in triples.
10) Ken Griffey, 1976. Batted .336 for the World Series champs.
Others worth mentioning:
Harry Heilmann, 1930
Pete Rose, 1968
Ival Goodman, 1938 and 1939
Frank Robinson, 1965
Sam Crawford, 1901 and 1902
Monday, September 19, 2011
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds center fielders
The CF position is one where the Reds have had fairly sustained success, even if no one has won an MVP. In fact, six different decades are represented in this top ten.
1) Cy Seymour, 1905. Cy's numbers were ridiculous. He led the league in hits, doubles, triples, RBI, batting average, OBP, slugging and of course OPS. He also posted 8.4 WAR. Many of these statistics rank first all-time among Red CF.
2) Eric Davis, 1987. This season ranks him first all-time among Red CF in SLG and OPS, and second in HR and runs scored. He also won a Gold Glove, and accumulated 8.0 WAR, his personal best.
3) Vada Pinson, 1961. 7.4 WAR, Gold Glove, third in NL MVP voting. Led the league in hits, and had a .343 batting average.
4) Ken Griffey, Jr., 2000. Unfortunately his only excellent season as a Red. Most HR all-time by a Red CF, second in walks and RBI, 5.8 WAR. Of his top 12 WAR seasons, 11 were with Seattle.
The best of the rest:
5) Vada Pinson, 1963.
6) Vada Pinson, 1959.
7) Edd Roush, 1923.
8) Gus Bell, 1953.
9) Edd Roush, 1920.
10) Eric Davis, 1986.
Others worth mentioning:
Bobby Tolan, 1970 and 1972
Edd Roush, 1917 and 1919
Mike Cameron, 1999
Ken Griffey, Jr., 2005
Eric Davis, 1996
1) Cy Seymour, 1905. Cy's numbers were ridiculous. He led the league in hits, doubles, triples, RBI, batting average, OBP, slugging and of course OPS. He also posted 8.4 WAR. Many of these statistics rank first all-time among Red CF.
2) Eric Davis, 1987. This season ranks him first all-time among Red CF in SLG and OPS, and second in HR and runs scored. He also won a Gold Glove, and accumulated 8.0 WAR, his personal best.
3) Vada Pinson, 1961. 7.4 WAR, Gold Glove, third in NL MVP voting. Led the league in hits, and had a .343 batting average.
4) Ken Griffey, Jr., 2000. Unfortunately his only excellent season as a Red. Most HR all-time by a Red CF, second in walks and RBI, 5.8 WAR. Of his top 12 WAR seasons, 11 were with Seattle.
The best of the rest:
5) Vada Pinson, 1963.
6) Vada Pinson, 1959.
7) Edd Roush, 1923.
8) Gus Bell, 1953.
9) Edd Roush, 1920.
10) Eric Davis, 1986.
Others worth mentioning:
Bobby Tolan, 1970 and 1972
Edd Roush, 1917 and 1919
Mike Cameron, 1999
Ken Griffey, Jr., 2005
Eric Davis, 1996
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds left fielders
On to Left Field, where the Redlegs have brought home 2 NL MVPs. That makes the first two choices pretty easy.
1) George Foster, 1977. NL MVP. 8.2 WAR. Led the league in HR, runs scored, RBI, and OPS. Ranks first among all Red LF in HR, RBI and OPS, and second in runs.
2) Pete Rose, 1973. NL MVP. 8.5 WAR. Led the league in hits and batting average. Ranks first among all Red LF in hits.
3) Frank Robinson, 1956. Rookie of the Year. 6.2 WAR. Led the league in runs scored, and his total from that season is the third highest among all Reds at the position.
4) Adam Dunn, 2004. The much-maligned Cowboy of the Clubhouse La-Z-Boys did have a couple valuable seasons, and this was one of them. 5.5 WAR. Ranks among all-time Red LF: second in HR, third in OPS, fourth in walks.
The best of the rest:
5) Adam Dunn, 2005
6) Pete Rose, 1972
7) Frank Robinson, 1957
8) Pete Rose, 1974
9) George Foster, 1976
10) George Foster, 1978
Others worth mentioning:
Eric Davis, 1986
Greg Vaughn, 1999
Pat Duncan, 1922
Bob Bescher, 1912
Mike Donlin, 1903
1) George Foster, 1977. NL MVP. 8.2 WAR. Led the league in HR, runs scored, RBI, and OPS. Ranks first among all Red LF in HR, RBI and OPS, and second in runs.
2) Pete Rose, 1973. NL MVP. 8.5 WAR. Led the league in hits and batting average. Ranks first among all Red LF in hits.
3) Frank Robinson, 1956. Rookie of the Year. 6.2 WAR. Led the league in runs scored, and his total from that season is the third highest among all Reds at the position.
4) Adam Dunn, 2004. The much-maligned Cowboy of the Clubhouse La-Z-Boys did have a couple valuable seasons, and this was one of them. 5.5 WAR. Ranks among all-time Red LF: second in HR, third in OPS, fourth in walks.
The best of the rest:
5) Adam Dunn, 2005
6) Pete Rose, 1972
7) Frank Robinson, 1957
8) Pete Rose, 1974
9) George Foster, 1976
10) George Foster, 1978
Others worth mentioning:
Eric Davis, 1986
Greg Vaughn, 1999
Pat Duncan, 1922
Bob Bescher, 1912
Mike Donlin, 1903
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds shortstops
We continue around the horn to shortstop, where (near-)future Hall of Famer Barry Larkin reigns supreme. As usual, I examined players in history with at least 120 games played, and at least 50% of those as the position in question. I looked at a number of conventional stats, as well as WAR and any awards received. The final judgment was based on both objective rankings and subjective weighting, especially with respect to awards.
1) Barry Larkin, 1996. This wasn't his MVP season, but it was better in every way. 7.4 WAR (easily the best of his career or any Red SS in history). Ranks first in Red SS history for HR, runs, RBI, walks, and OPS. Won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and finished 12th in MVP voting. Became the first 30-30 shortstop in MLB history, and is still the only Red SS to hit 30 homers.
2) Barry Larkin, 1995. NL MVP, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger. First in Red SS history for stolen bases and batting average. 5.9 WAR.
The best of the rest:
3) Barry Larkin, 1998. 5.9 WAR, second among Red SS in batting average and OPS
4) Barry Larkin, 1999. 5.2 WAR, second among Red SS in runs and walks
5) Barry Larkin, 1988. 6.2 WAR, second among Red SS in hits
6) Dave Concepcion, 1974. 5.1 WAR, Gold Glove winner
7) Barry Larkin, 1991.
8) Barry Larkin, 1992.
9) Barry Larkin, 1990.
10) Dave Concepcion, 1979.
Others worth mentioning:
Roy McMillan 1956
Leo Cardenas 1965
Dave Concepcion 1976
Eddie Miller 1974
Felipe Lopez 2005
1) Barry Larkin, 1996. This wasn't his MVP season, but it was better in every way. 7.4 WAR (easily the best of his career or any Red SS in history). Ranks first in Red SS history for HR, runs, RBI, walks, and OPS. Won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and finished 12th in MVP voting. Became the first 30-30 shortstop in MLB history, and is still the only Red SS to hit 30 homers.
2) Barry Larkin, 1995. NL MVP, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger. First in Red SS history for stolen bases and batting average. 5.9 WAR.
The best of the rest:
3) Barry Larkin, 1998. 5.9 WAR, second among Red SS in batting average and OPS
4) Barry Larkin, 1999. 5.2 WAR, second among Red SS in runs and walks
5) Barry Larkin, 1988. 6.2 WAR, second among Red SS in hits
6) Dave Concepcion, 1974. 5.1 WAR, Gold Glove winner
7) Barry Larkin, 1991.
8) Barry Larkin, 1992.
9) Barry Larkin, 1990.
10) Dave Concepcion, 1979.
Others worth mentioning:
Roy McMillan 1956
Leo Cardenas 1965
Dave Concepcion 1976
Eddie Miller 1974
Felipe Lopez 2005
Friday, September 16, 2011
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds second basemen
This position is another no-brainer (like Bench at catcher), considering Joe Morgan is arguably the best 2B in MLB history. From 1972 to 1976 his numbers were surreal, especially if you look at WAR. The only debate here is which season was superior - '75 or '76?
1) Joe Morgan, 1976. NL MVP. Led the league in OPS and WAR (10.0). #1 in Reds 2B history for RBI and OPS, #2 in Reds 2B history for batting average and homers. Also won a Gold Glove.
2) Joe Morgan, 1975. NL MVP. Led the league in walks, OPS and WAR (12.0). #1 in Reds 2B history for batting average, stolen bases and walks. #2 in Reds 2B history for OPS. Also won a Gold Glove.
3) Joe Morgan, 1973. Led the league in WAR (9.9). #2 in Reds 2B history for stolen bases. #3 in Reds 2B history for HRs. #4 in Reds 2B history for OPS. Also won a Gold Glove.
The best of the rest:
4) Joe Morgan, 1974
5) Pete Rose, 1965
6) Joe Morgan, 1977
7) Brandon Phillips, 2007
8) Joe Morgan, 1972
9) Johnny Temple, 1958
10) Pete Rose, 1966
1) Joe Morgan, 1976. NL MVP. Led the league in OPS and WAR (10.0). #1 in Reds 2B history for RBI and OPS, #2 in Reds 2B history for batting average and homers. Also won a Gold Glove.
2) Joe Morgan, 1975. NL MVP. Led the league in walks, OPS and WAR (12.0). #1 in Reds 2B history for batting average, stolen bases and walks. #2 in Reds 2B history for OPS. Also won a Gold Glove.
3) Joe Morgan, 1973. Led the league in WAR (9.9). #2 in Reds 2B history for stolen bases. #3 in Reds 2B history for HRs. #4 in Reds 2B history for OPS. Also won a Gold Glove.
The best of the rest:
4) Joe Morgan, 1974
5) Pete Rose, 1965
6) Joe Morgan, 1977
7) Brandon Phillips, 2007
8) Joe Morgan, 1972
9) Johnny Temple, 1958
10) Pete Rose, 1966
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Top seasons of Cincinnati Reds first basemen
Continuing up the line from catcher, here are what I consider to be the top seasons (taking mostly offense only into consideration, except the inclusion of defense in overall WAR or winning a Gold Glove). The cutoffs: at least 120 games played in that season, and at least 50% of those at first base. For each, I provide a few of the most impressive statistics (all from baseball-reference of course).
1) Ted Kluszewski, 1954. NL-leading 49 homers (most all-time by a Red 1B). NL-leading 141 RBI (most all-time by a Red 1B). OPS of 1.049 (highest ever by a Red 1B). Absurd WAR of 8.1. Lost out on the MVP award to Willie Mays.
2) Joey Votto, 2010. Led the NL in OBP and SLG (so, obviously, OPS as well). Won the MVP award.
3) Frank McCormick, 1939. Led the league in hits and RBI. Only finished 4th in MVP voting, but would go on to win it in 1940.
The rest of the top ten:
4) Kluszewski, 1955 - led the league in hits
5) McCormick, 1940 - won the MVP, posted 6.0 WAR
6) Jake Daubert, 1922 - led the league in triples, second among Red 1B in RS and BA
7) Frank Robinson, 1959 (one of his non-outfield seasons)
8) Sean Casey, 1999
9) Kluszewski, 1953
10) Votto, 2011 - already 6.5 WAR, most walks ever by a Red
1) Ted Kluszewski, 1954. NL-leading 49 homers (most all-time by a Red 1B). NL-leading 141 RBI (most all-time by a Red 1B). OPS of 1.049 (highest ever by a Red 1B). Absurd WAR of 8.1. Lost out on the MVP award to Willie Mays.
2) Joey Votto, 2010. Led the NL in OBP and SLG (so, obviously, OPS as well). Won the MVP award.
3) Frank McCormick, 1939. Led the league in hits and RBI. Only finished 4th in MVP voting, but would go on to win it in 1940.
The rest of the top ten:
4) Kluszewski, 1955 - led the league in hits
5) McCormick, 1940 - won the MVP, posted 6.0 WAR
6) Jake Daubert, 1922 - led the league in triples, second among Red 1B in RS and BA
7) Frank Robinson, 1959 (one of his non-outfield seasons)
8) Sean Casey, 1999
9) Kluszewski, 1953
10) Votto, 2011 - already 6.5 WAR, most walks ever by a Red
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