In the 18 previous years of the NL Central's existence, the Reds have been in 1st at the break 3 times (1994, 1995, 2010) and went on to win the division in each of those years - their only three titles.
The Reds were in 2nd place at the ASB four times (1999, 2000, 2002, 2006) and finished 2nd or 3rd each of those years.
They've only improved their divisional standing (games back or games
ahead) after the break four out of eighteen times - 1995 (+4), 2006
(+0.5), 2007 (+0.5) and 2010 (+4).
In other words, let's hope that over the remaining 9 games of the first half, they can hang on to this lead.
More random notes:
Only 7 of 18 times, the Reds were .500 or above at the break.
Only 6 of 18 times, the Reds finished the season .500 or above.
The 1996 team improved from 39-43 to finish .500.
The 2002 and 2006 teams fell off their winning paces to finish below .500.
In the 14 previous years of the current 6-team configuration, the Reds have finished in the top three only 6 times. Thankfully they've never finished dead last, a spot normally reserved for the Pirates.
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Showing posts with label 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010. Show all posts
Saturday, June 30, 2012
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Review of the Reds' April Offense
The last three seasons, the Reds have finished April with strikingly similar records:
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012
As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends. I'll keep each summary brief. Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split). In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.
One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair. Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month. A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.
BATTING ORDER:
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.
Leadoff:
2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)
Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49
The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.
The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season. BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.
BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:
Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010. Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions. We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.
The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.
Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46
Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56
Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55
SITUATIONAL TRENDS:
Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123
Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49
Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise. We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws. 1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term. C and 2B should be okay. 3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012
As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends. I'll keep each summary brief. Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split). In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.
One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair. Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month. A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.
BATTING ORDER:
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.
Leadoff:
2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)
Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49
The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.
The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season. BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.
BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:
Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010. Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions. We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.
The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.
Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46
Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56
Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55
SITUATIONAL TRENDS:
Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123
Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49
Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise. We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws. 1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term. C and 2B should be okay. 3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
2011 Reds with 1+ WAR change from 2010
The positive shifts in WAR from 2010 to 2011:
1) Leake -0.5 to 2.1
2) Cueto 2.0 to 4.3
3) Cordero 0.4 to 2.3
4) Phillips 2.6 to 4.2
5) Cairo 0.4 to 1.7
The negative shifts:
1) Bruce 4.6 to 1.3 (mostly due to drop in defensive value)
2) Rolen 3.5 to 0.6 (mostly due to injury)
3) Arroyo 2.1 to -0.5 (mostly due to...um...getting hammered almost every time he pitched)
4) Stubbs 5.2 to 3.0 (a combination of all the strikeouts and less defensive value)
5) Volquez 0.5 to -1.0
6) Maloney 0.4 to -0.8
The sum of all the changes listed here: -4.0 WAR
1) Leake -0.5 to 2.1
2) Cueto 2.0 to 4.3
3) Cordero 0.4 to 2.3
4) Phillips 2.6 to 4.2
5) Cairo 0.4 to 1.7
The negative shifts:
1) Bruce 4.6 to 1.3 (mostly due to drop in defensive value)
2) Rolen 3.5 to 0.6 (mostly due to injury)
3) Arroyo 2.1 to -0.5 (mostly due to...um...getting hammered almost every time he pitched)
4) Stubbs 5.2 to 3.0 (a combination of all the strikeouts and less defensive value)
5) Volquez 0.5 to -1.0
6) Maloney 0.4 to -0.8
The sum of all the changes listed here: -4.0 WAR
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
How far the pitching has come
The Reds may have finished only 14-12 this month, with a few losses that easily could've/should've gone our way.
But as we all noticed, the pitching was vastly improved. In 20 of the 26 games, the opposition scored 4 or fewer runs. That's the first month this season we've had 20 games that solid.
In 2010, the Reds had three such months of 20 games holding the opposition under 5 runs (May, July and September).
In 2009, the Reds accomplished it only in September.
And here's the crazy thing. Before that, you have to go all the way back to May 1997 to find the previous single month with pitching of that quality.
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