The end of the Bruce / Phillips / Votto era

I'm 32 years old.  I started watching baseball in 1990, precisely when the Reds last won it all.  I heard about the Big Red Machine from my dad, and have since studied and watched them extensively.

The last 26 years have been frustrating.  But even when the team isn't making the playoffs, it's natural for a die-hard fan to get attached to individual Reds.  With rumors swirling about a trade of Jay Bruce, let's take a step back to appreciate the stability, productivity and longevity of this recent core group of players.  

Bruce, Phillips and Votto have been the primary starters at their respective positions for 8 consecutive seasons (2009-2016).  Only Machine-era combinations of 3+ players met or exceeded that.

Bench / Perez / Rose - 9 seasons (1968-1976)

Bench / Concepcion / Rose - 9 seasons (1970-1978)
Bruce / Phillips / Votto - 8 seasons (2009-2016)

Bench / Concepcion / Morgan - 8 seasons (1972-1979)

Bench / Concepcion / Perez / Rose - 7 seasons (1970-1976)
Helms / May / Perez / Rose - 6 seasons (1966-1971)
Cardenas / Pinson / Rose - 6 seasons (1963-1968)
Bell / McMillan / Temple - 6 seasons (1953-1958)
Groh / Roush / Wingo - 6 seasons (1916-1921)

All three have been extremely productive during their time as well.  There is no doubt that they will all end up in the Reds Hall of Fame.

Here are their rankings in some key stats...

Games played:
1) Rose - 2722
7) Phillips - 1566
20) Bruce - 1220
22) Votto - 1209

Hits:
1) Rose - 3358
9) Phillips - 1711
15) Votto - 1321
27) Bruce - 1116

HR:
1) Bench - 389
7) Bruce - 233
8) Votto - 210
12) Phillips - 186

RBI: 
1) Bench - 1376
10) Phillips - 824
15) Bruce - 718
17) Votto - 685

WAR (position players)
1) Rose - 77.7
8) Votto - 45.2
18) Phillips - 29.3
30) Bruce - 16.5


A number of things worked against this group.  While they had a solid pitching staff from 2010 through 2012, there were always weak links in the lineup, or mishaps along the way.  Most Reds fans believe we could've taken a championship in 2012, if not for Cueto's injury in Game 1 of the NLDS.  It certainly would have been interesting.  

While the postseason results have been disappointing, we've still had the opportunity to watch one of the most productive cores of position players in Reds history.  Let's appreciate that.

The story behind BP's production is more than just opportunity

Many would assert, with some degree of truth, that Brandon Phillips leads the National League in RBI (with 42 entering play on Sunday 5/26) because of increased opportunities.  Votto and Choo have done such an incredible job getting on base (ranking 1st and 3rd in all of MLB for that category so far), that Brandon has had a wealth of chances.

Most runners on base for 2013 National League batters:
1) Brandon Phillips - 170
2) Jay Bruce - 159
3) Hunter Pence - 150
4) Yonder Alonso - 145
5) Zack Cozart - 141

This list tells a couple different stories.  First off, the Reds' offense has been generating a ton of opportunities.  To have 3 of the top 5 in this category is pretty absurd.  However, production is much more than opportunity...because as we all know, the three Reds on this list have had very different levels of success when they've batted with runners on.

Among the 125 batters in MLB who have had at least 100 runners on this season, Brandon ranks 13th in percentage of those runners driven in (20%).  Bruce rates a respectable 15.72%, good for 57th on the list.  Cozart is near the bottom - 109th at only 10.64% of runners driven in.  If you haven't considered this particular statistic before, I would summarize it as follows:

< 9% = terrible
9-11% = poor
12-14% = mediocre
15-17% = good
18-20% = excellent
>20% = outstanding

For his career, Phillips has been a good (but usually not great) producer with runners on.  Here are the percentages, rounded off to the nearest whole numbers:

2006 - 15%
2007 - 14%
2008 - 15%
2009 - 17%
2010 - 12%
2011 - 16%
2012 - 15%
2013 - 20%

Two years stand out - 2013 for success, and 2010 for lack thereof.  The biggest thing that can help you succeed in these situations is extra-base hits.  According to Fangraphs numbers, BP's 2010 isolated slugging percentage was only .155 (third-worst of his Reds career), while he's at .189 this season (second-best).  

At his current pace, Brandon would accumulate 40 doubles (a career high) and 26 homers (second only to his breakout 2007 season).  

Will he sustain this production level?  Maybe not.  But his improved approach and skill at the plate will certainly give him a good chance.  A number of his XBH this season have punctuated lengthy at-bats where he fouled off pitches until he got one to deliver into the gap (or the seats). While his overall pitches seen per plate appearance stat (about 3.7) has not changed this year, he makes the adjustments necessary in big situations, and quite visibly relishes the role of dependable RBI man.

Here's hoping that Brandon keeps it going, because he's on pace for some history.  Only Joe Morgan has ever driven in 100 runs in a season as a Reds second baseman, and he did it just once, with 111 in 1976.  BP is on pace for 138 RBI - that would be the 5th highest single-season total ever by any second baseman in major league baseball.

Statistics from baseballmusings.com, fangraphs.com, mlb.com and espn.com

Choo changing the entire Reds offense

In 2012, the Cincinnati Reds offense struggled in one very major way.  Only Votto (.474), Hanigan (.365) and Ludwick (.346) got on base consistently.  Here were their OBP ranks by position in MLB:

C - .333 (10th)
1B - .423 (1st)
2B - .306 (22nd)
3B - .304 (23rd)
SS - .284 (25th)
LF - .339 (10th)
CF - .282 (30th)
RF - .320 (21st)
 
Note: Reds pitchers were also above average with a .176 OBP (9th in MLB) but the 9th spot in the order isn't something you rely on for production on a game-to-game basis.

And here are their rankings through 40 games in 2013:

C - .290 (21st)
1B - .455 (1st) - leading all other teams by 37 points
2B - .333 (11th)
3B - .314 (19th)
SS - .250 (28th)
LF - .302 (21st)
CF - .468 (1st) - leading all other teams by 73 points
RF - .303 (19th)

As you can see, the only huge change was in CF.  Votto's OBP is actually lower this year than last, but the team number for first base has improved as a result of him having 100% of the playing time so far this year.  

Choo is almost single-handedly responsible for the team OBP jumping from an abysmal .315 last year (22nd in the league) to .335 in 2013, which now ranks third in baseball.  Even with Cozart's weak bat behind him, Choo is tied for the MLB lead in runs scored (33).  Just imagine the numbers he might be putting up with Ludwick healthy and BP back in the 2-hole...

Phillips, Arroyo in all the major Reds all-time top 25 lists

Even including players from the 19th century, the names "Brandon Phillips" and "Bronson Arroyo" appear high on the lists for virtually all the main cumulative stats among Reds hitters and pitchers, respectively.

Close behind them, and sure to eventually overtake them in a lot of categories: Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto.

Here are all the major cumulative rankings for active players among all-time Reds hitters and pitchers:

Home Runs (all-time leader: Bench)
16th - Phillips
17th - Bruce
T-18th - Votto

Hits (all-time leader: Rose)
T-21st - Phillips
47th - Votto

Doubles (all-time leader: Rose)
20th - Phillips
23rd - Votto

RBI (all-time leader: Bench)
25th - Phillips
32nd - Votto
49th - Bruce

Stolen bases (all-time leader: McPhee)
25th - Phillips
42nd - Stubbs

Games started (all-time leader: Rixey)
12th - Arroyo
33rd - Cueto
47th - Bailey

Innings pitched (all-time leader: Rixey)
24th - Arroyo
47th - Cueto

Wins (all-time leader: Rixey)
T-22nd - Arroyo
T-39th - Cueto

Strikeouts (all-time leader: Maloney)
12th - Arroyo
22nd - Cueto
36th - Bailey

Can Joey Votto still win the batting title?

The answer is yes, but it would be extremely difficult thanks to the minimum of 502 plate appearances.  With Melky Cabrera now disqualified, Votto's chances have improved.

Currently, Votto has 426 PAs.  If you finish with less than 502, you can still win the batting title as long as the addition of the necessary PAs, in the form of hitless at-bats, still gives you a high enough average.  This is according to MLB rule 10.22(a).

So let's calculate his current "effective" average.

Joey has 116 hits in 339 at-bats, for a true average of .342 (behind only the now-disqualified Melky Cabrera)

However, you have to currently add 76 imaginary, hitless at-bats (to bring him from 426 to 502 PAs).

So Votto's "effective" average is only .280 (116 hits in 415 ABs).

For the remainder of the season, two things can help him dramatically raise that effective average:

- HITS (obviously)

- BB, HBP, SF, etc... (any PA that doesn't count as an AB)

Hits will help improve the numerator of his "effective" average, which currently sits at 116.

The non-AB PAs will help reduce, thereby improving, the denominator which is currently 415.



So now we can discuss the sort of average Joey might finish with.  There are only 12 games remaining.  We might expect him to perform roughly the same way he has over the past 12 games (keeping in mind that he likely won't even play in a couple of them, and certainly won't START all 12).

If Votto matches his production from the previous 12, he would accumulate 12 more hits and 14 more PAs which do not count as ABs.

Add the 12 hits to the current 116 = 128

Subtract the 14 non-AB PAs from the current 415 effective ABs = 401

Divide 128 by 401...


The effective average would be .319 - very good, but almost certainly not good enough to beat McCutchen (sitting at .339) or Posey (.335).

Let's say JDV really goes crazy and gets 18 hits and the same 14 non-AB PAs over the final 12 games.  

Add the 18 to the current 116 hits = 134

Subtract the 14 non-AB PAs from the current 415 effective ABs = 401

134/401 = .334, which would definitely put him in contention.

So in conclusion...there is still a possibility, but it's a very slim possibility.  And I think we'd all rather have a healthy Joey in the playoffs than worry about him pushing for personal distinction.  Stand-up guy that he is, Votto would be the first to agree.

Reds' Offensive Leaders Without Votto

The Reds are 16-4 since MVP Joey Votto went down with a torn meniscus.  A lot of the thanks has to go to the pitching staff, which was dominant during the first 13 games in his absence.  Yet, perhaps surprisingly, they've only posted 9 quality starts in the 20 games overall.  So the bullpen, without question, deserves a lot of credit as well.  

But let's not forget that a number of position players have really stepped up to fill the offensive void.  Here are the leaders in the past 20 games (July 16th through August 5th):

Runs:
1) Stubbs - 22
2) Bruce, Cozart, Phillips - 11

Hits:
1) Stubbs - 24
2) Ludwick - 21
3) Phillips - 19

Doubles:
1) Ludwick - 6
2) Bruce, Phillips - 5
3) Hanigan - 4

Triples:
1) Rolen - 2
2) Cozart, Heisey - 1

Home Runs:
1) Ludwick - 6
2) Stubbs - 5
3) Bruce, Phillips, Frazier - 3

RBI:
1) Ludwick - 21
2) Stubbs - 15
3) Phillips - 13

BB:
1) Bruce - 13
2) Rolen - 10
3) Stubbs - 9

Stolen bases:
1) Stubbs - 7
2) Bruce - 2

Batting average:
1) Ludwick, Paul - .350
3) Phillips - .339
4) Stubbs - .338
5) Rolen - .333

OPS:
1) Ludwick - 1.159
2) Stubbs - .999
3) Rolen - .986
4) Phillips - .956
5) Bruce - .871

Conclusions:
- Ludwick is definitely the Votto-less MVP
- Stubbs is the most improved player during this span, becoming the guy we all want him to be
- Phillips was putting up awesome numbers so it's too bad that he went down as well, just a few days ago
- Paul was a great shot in the arm, especially in pinch-hitting roles
- Rolen had seemed a lost offensive cause in the first half, but he has been a huge boost too
- Frazier has actually been somewhat less productive during this span, yet his overall numbers are still superb for a rookie, putting him in solid ROY contention

Cincinnati Reds: July 2012 Summary

The Reds went a ridiculous 19-7 in July (including the first 10-game winning streak since 1999) to remain in first place in the NL Central with an overall record of 62-41.  When the month began, they led Pittsburgh by 1 game.  In spite of Cincinnati's torrid pace, Pittsburgh barely lost any ground - they only trail by 3 games.  The Reds' lead over St. Louis expanded from 3.5 to 7 games.


Cincinnati won 5 series (including 4 sweeps), lost 1 (at the Dodgers) and split 1 (at home against the Diamondbacks). 



**From July 6th through July 29th, their record was an astonishing 17-2.**


Home record: 9-3 (8-2 on the only completed home stand, 1-1 ongoing)
Road record: 10-4 (4-4 to finish their 5-6 West Coast trip, 6-0 on their second trip)
vs West: 10-7
vs Central: 9-0 (nice!)


Overall offensive trends: The offense stepped up admirably in Joey's absence (he missed 15 of the 26 games).  The batting average dipped only 3 points from June to .262, and the OBP only 9 points to .323.  Five players trended up significantly in OPS+, five trended down, and three stayed about the same.  Ryan Ludwick was phenomenal, Rolen showed a surprising return to old form, and Xavier Paul provided some unexpected help as well.


Overall pitching trends: The staff was outstanding, and the main reason that the team was able to weather the Votto-less storm.  The overall ERA was 3.03 (the best of the year).  After an already-solid June, the rotation boasted even better stats, going 14-5 with a 3.29 ERA. In June, Aroldis was the only problem in the bullpen.  The exact opposite was true in July, when he was virtually the only dominant force.  Relievers not named Chapman posted a 1.68 WHIP.  But thanks to his exceptional work, the relief corps still went 5-2 overall with a 2.43 ERA. 


Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Rolen +91, Heisey +87, Ludwick +48, Mesoraco +46, Frazier +24


DOWN significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Votto -102, Valdez -43, Cozart -37, Stubbs -30, Bruce -24


No significant change: Phillips, Hanigan, Cairo


Individual pitching trends:


UP significantly from June: Chapman, Arroyo, Bailey (all of whom had down months in June)

DOWN significantly from June: Leake, Simon, Arredondo

No significant change: everyone else




And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of July...

RANDY HITTER: Ryan Ludwick.  "Brother" led Reds regulars in batting average (.333), OPS (1.089), home runs (7) and RBI (19).

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Scott Rolen.  After looking like he was sinking toward retirement, he batted .321 in July with a .413 OBP (best among regulars).

RANDY STARTER: Homer Bailey.  4-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP that would've been even better without his implosion on the final day of the month.

Honorable mention: Bronson Arroyo (3-1), Johnny Cueto (4-1)

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Also Bailey.  He was coming off a losing record and 6 ERA in June.

RANDY RELIEVER: Aroldis Chapman.  An insanely easy choice...14.1 sparkling innings of shutout ball.  Only 6 hits allowed, 2 walks, and 31 strikeouts.  A perfect 13 for 13 on saves.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Also Chapman.  June was his disaster month, with an 0-4 record and an ERA approaching 7.

RANDY NOOB: Xavier Paul.  7 for his first 13 as a Red, including 2 doubles and 2 key RBIs...we'll take it!

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Drew Stubbs.  A guy who really needed a confidence builder provided a huge boost on July 24th at Houston, going 3 for 4 including a homer that brought the Reds from down 2-1 to up 3-2 in the top of the 9th.  That was one of the biggest hits of the entire season so far.  Altogether, he was on base 4 of 5 times, with a strikeout and CS the only two blemishes on an awesome day.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Bronson Arroyo.  He started the Reds' first win streak of the month when, on July 6th at San Diego, he pitched a complete-game, three-hit shutout.  Bronson struck out 8, walked 1, and needed only 110 pitches to post the best game score by any Reds pitcher this year - 88. 

Cincinnati Reds: June 2012 Summary

The Reds went 15-12 in June to remain in first place in the NL Central with an overall record of 43-34.  When the month began, they led St. Louis by 1.5 games.  That lead has expanded to 3.5, but Pittsburgh has remained a worthy challenger, trailing by only 1 game entering play on July 1st.


Cincinnati won 4 series (including consecutive sweeps of the Indians and Mets), lost 4 (including a subsequent sweep at the hands of those same Indians), and lead 2-1 in the incomplete San Francisco series.


Home record: 8-7 (5-4 on the first home stand, 3-3 on the second...overall a bit disappointing)
Road record: 7-5
vs Central: 5-4
vs East: 3-0
vs West: 2-1
vs AL: 5-7 (what else is new...they always find a way to screw up interleague play)


Overall offensive trends: The hitting side made a very respectable showing in June, with a .265 average (23 points higher than May), a .332 OBP (26 points higher) and 112 OPS+ (14 points higher).  Seven players trended up significantly in OPS+, only two went down, and four stayed about the same.  Scoring 4.7 runs a game is definitely sufficient for a playoff contender. Hopefully they can keep this production up.


Overall pitching trends: The staff had mixed but still solid results.  Its ERA was 3.62 (the worst of the year so far) but the WHIP was 1.16 - the best of the year.  The main theme of the month was that the starting pitching fared very well.  The rotation was 11-6 with a 3.74 ERA, with Cueto, Leake and Latos all in top form.  The relief pitching was due for a shaky month, and it had one...but really, the only problem was Aroldis Chapman.  His 0-4 record and 6.97 ERA for June tells the story.   Everyone else did fine, especially Marshall.  Heading forward, the rotation looks good enough to keep us in the mix (barring injury).  The closer situation is an obvious concern.


Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from May (20 or more OPS+ points): Valdez +132, Ludwick +49, Rolen +44, Stubbs +38, Cozart +35, Bruce +25, Phillips +24


Note that Cozart, Rolen and Valdez (especially the latter two) improved from pretty dismal previous numbers.  Improvement is still improvement though.


DOWN significantly from May (20 or more OPS+ points): Heisey -54, Hanigan -50


No significant change: Votto +5, Frazier -14, Mesoraco +1, Cairo -12


Individual pitching trends:


UP significantly from May: Marshall, Cueto, Leake, Arredondo, LeCure, Ondrusek, Latos

DOWN significantly from May: Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman, Hoover

No significant change: Simon


And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of June.

RANDY HITTER: Joey Votto.  Batted .392 with 6 HR, 18 RBI.  An insane 221 OPS+

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Ryan Ludwick.  Raised his OPS significantly, contributed 6 HR and 13 RBI.

RANDY STARTER: Johnny Cueto.  Went 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA, had a complete game. 

Honorable mention: Mike Leake, Mat Latos

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Mike Leake.  Had a 2.55 ERA (1.8 runs lower) and deserved a better result than only a 2-0 record in 6 starts.

RANDY RELIEVER: Sean Marshall.  0.77 ERA and 0.60 WHIP with 9.3 K/9.  

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Also Marshall (lowered his ERA another 2+ runs), for the second straight month.

RANDY NOOB: Because no significant call-ups or acquisitions were made, I'm leaving this blank.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Jay Bruce, 6/29 at San Francisco.  Went 4 for 4 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI, backing up Leake's gem in an important 5-1 win.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Mat Latos, 6/25 vs Milwaukee.  Threw a dominating, 13 strikeout complete game, giving up only 1 run and 4 hits.

Reds All-Time Offensive Leaders in Interleague Play

Since interleague play began in 1997 the Cincinnati Reds have, without question, been a team in flux.  They've made only one playoff appearance (in 2010) and the lineup, aside from a few mainstays, has shifted on an almost annual basis.


For example, the cutoff I used in comparing rate stats for this post was 55 interleague games - which is not even equivalent to four full seasons of such contests.  Even so, only 10 players made the mark.

Active players underlined.  All statistics through June 21st, 2012 - so they exclude the Reds/Twins series.


Most games:
1) Griffey - 115
2) Phillips - 106
3) Dunn - 98
4) Casey - 93
5) Larkin - 71
6) Bruce - 70
7) Votto - 67
8) Reese - 66
9) LaRue - 61
10) A. Boone - 55


Most hits: 
1) Phillips - 132
2) Griffey - 105
3) Casey - 94
4) Dunn - 87
5) Larkin - 82


Most doubles:
1) Tie - Larkin, Votto and Phillips - 18
4) Casey - 17
5) Tie - Dunn and Bruce - 16


Most triples:
1) Larkin - 4
2) Numerous others tied with 1


Most home runs:
1) Griffey - 32
2) Dunn - 28
3) Votto - 18
4) Phillips - 17


Most RBIs:
1) Griffey - 71
2) Phillips - 62
3) Dunn - 56
4) Votto - 49
5) Casey - 43


Most walks:
1) Dunn - 59
2) Griffey - 43
3) Larkin - 39
4) Votto - 38
5) Casey - 30


Most strikeouts:
1) Dunn - 125
2) Griffey - 102
3) Bruce - 72


Most stolen bases:
1) Phillips - 20
2) Reese - 14
3) Tie - Freel and Stubbs - 10


Best batting average:
1) Phillips - .317
2) Larkin - .314
3) Votto - .298


Best on-base percentage:
1) Larkin - .401
2) Votto - .394
3) Dunn - .361


The biggest surprises from this list, for me:


- Brandon Phillips dominated a bunch of categories.  I didn't expect him to have the best batting average or second-most RBIs.  Very impressive.


- Joey Votto with a batting average below .300 is a shocker.

Cincinnati Reds: May 2012 Summary

The Reds went 17-11 in May to surge into first place in the NL Central, holding a lead of 1.5 games over the St. Louis Cardinals entering play June 1st.

Cincinnati won 5 series, split 3 and lost 2.


Home: 8-4
Road: 9-7
vs Central: 6-5
vs East: 7-4
vs West: 2-1
vs AL: 2-1

Overall offensive trends: Average stable at an ugly number (.240 April, .242 May).  OBP the same story: .306 in both months.  The only improvement was in power - slugging rose from .387 to .421, boosting the Reds' OPS+ from 95 to 98.  Bottom line: the Reds can win with this offense, but only if the pitching remains other-worldly.  They need to get on base more to help win this division.


Overall pitching trends: The starters posted almost identical, solid-but-not-spectacular numbers in May (3.86 ERA) relative to April (3.89).  The bullpen went from great to insanely great, lowering its ERA from 2.81 to 2.02 and its WHIP from 1.25 to 1.03.  All these numbers are good enough to make the playoffs.  Again, the question is offense.


Individual offensive trends:
UP significantly (40 or more OPS+ points): Votto, Heisey, Hanigan
DOWN significantly: Bruce, Cozart, Mesoraco
NOT MUCH CHANGE (GOOD): Phillips
NOT MUCH CHANGE (BAD): Stubbs


Individual pitching trends:
UP significantly: Latos, Bailey, Leake, Simon, LeCure, Marshall
DOWN significantly: Cueto, Arroyo, Ondrusek
NOT MUCH CHANGE (GOOD): Chapman, Arredondo

And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of May.

RANDY HITTER: 

Joey Votto - .355, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 23 walks

Honorable mention: Ryan Hanigan

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: 

Chris Heisey (raised his OPS+ by 46 points)

RANDY STARTER: 

Mat Latos (3-0, 3.26, and a 1.12 WHIP)

Honorable mention: Homer Bailey

RANDY MOST IMPROVED PITCHER: 

Mike Leake (his ERA was 2.1 runs lower)

RANDY RELIEVER: 

Aroldis Chapman (still sporting a 0.00 ERA, struck out 23 batters in May)

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: 

Sean Marshall (his ERA was 2.4 runs lower)

RANDY NEWBIE: 
JJ Hoover (0.90 ERA in 10 IP, 10 K) - yes he pitched in April, but May was his first full month with the Reds.

A few more stats on the Reds' April Offense

Win Probability Added (a value of 1.0 means, essentially, this player has contributed one win to the team):
Best:
Votto 1.2 
Bruce: 0.6 
Cozart 0.5


Worst:
Stubbs -0.6
Harris -0.6
Rolen - 0.4

For the following two metrics, I compared the entire year of 2011 to April 2012 numbers. 


Line-drive percentage (18% is league average)


Improved significantly from 2011:
Bruce - 23 (18 last year)
Rolen - 20 (17)
Cozart - 19 (13)


Declined significantly from 2011:
Phillips - 17 (21 last year)
Stubbs - 16 (20)
Heisey - 15 (20)


The best on the team for this stat is, of course, Joey Votto, checking in at 26% for both years.


Strike-out rate (20% is league average)

Improved significantly from 2011:
Stubbs - 26 (30 last year)
Heisey - 20 (25)
Mesoraco - 8 (19)


Declined significantly from 2011:
Rolen - 20 (13)

You might be surprised to hear that Votto strikes out more than the league average, at 24%.

Reds' 2012 salaries vs. 2011 WAR

I wanted to look at the value the Reds can expect to get for their money this season, using Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement, and player salaries from Cot's MLB Contracts (with pro-rated bonuses, deferred money, etc. included).

If you want to see the Reds' committed cash for 2012 and beyond, see: 
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj1FG9GPVGFzrJykhM94ogw&output=html


First, I divided everyone into two groups.


Group 1 = everyone with 6+ years of service time, or with salary above $600,000
Group 2 = everyone else


I used 2011 WAR, and obviously 2012 will differ...the whole point of the exercise is to use this as a baseline and see how everything ultimately shakes out in comparison.

GROUP 1

For Group 1, the entire amount of money committed = 81.243 million dollars
For Group 1, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 30.3
Millions spent per win above replacement = 2.68

More breakdowns for Group 1
Millions per WAR, hitters only =  2.08
Millions per WAR, pitchers only = 4.04 (thanks largely to Arroyo)
Millions per WAR, returning Reds only = 2.54


Let's take a look at individual players in Group 1, ranked by millions per WAR, going from best value to worst value.  The players at the very bottom have no values assigned, because dividing by zero (or negative numbers) isn't possible (or logical).


1) Miguel Cairo - 0.53
2) Ryan Hanigan - 0.6
3) Sean Marshall - 1.11
4) Jay Bruce - 1.52
5) Joey Votto - 1.59 - will jump to around 3 million per WAR next season, assuming production is the same
6) Homer Bailey - 1.62
7) Johnny Cueto - 1.93
8) Bill Bray - 2.03
9) Brandon Phillips - 2.04 - but can he keep producing on both offense and defense like he did in 2011?

(GROUP 1 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = POOR VALUE FOR MONEY)

10) Nick Masset - 4.00 - had a bad year in 2011, hopefully bounces back
11) Ryan Madson - 5.00 - and actually worse, now that he's out
12) Aroldis Chapman - 5.83 - this number would undoubtedly improve if he started instead
13) Scott Rolen - 6.28 - a healthy year would help a great deal
14) Ryan Ludwick - 8.33 - Reds are taking a risk, hoping he can post more than 0.3 WAR

(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)

15) Wilson Valdez
16) Jose Arredondo
17) Willie Harris
18) Paul Janish
19) Bronson Arroyo - being paid 12 million


Note that the salaries of Valdez, Arredondo, Harris and Janish are all under 1 million, so at least the amount of money "wasted" (if they don't improve in 2012) would not be terribly painful.  Also note that neither Madson nor Janish is on the major league active roster.



GROUP 2

For Group 2, the entire amount of money committed = 5.49 million dollars
For Group 2, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 11.5
Millions spent per win above replacement = 0.48


Obviously, any positive contributions from this second group (which are a necessity for any team) will make the millions/WAR appear much more favorable than Group 1.  Teams still deserve some credit for picking the right guys though.

Individual players, from best value to worst value (millions per WAR):
1) Mat Latos - 0.17
2) Drew Stubbs - 0.20
3) Chris Heisey - 0.31
4) Mike Leake - 0.34
5) Alfredo Simon - 0.44


(GROUP 2 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = LESS VALUE FOR MONEY)


6) Zack Cozart - 0.69 - but with a healthy year, he'll be one of the best values on the team
7) Todd Frazier - 0.69 - we all like the guy, but very much hope he won't be needed
8) Sam LeCure - 0.98


(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)


9) Andrew Brackman
10) Jordan Smith
11) Logan Ondrusek


Note that Brackman, Frazier and Smith are not on the active major league roster.  Also keep in mind that, at such comparatively small salaries, even a modest improvement this season for guys like Ondrusek or LeCure would make them excellent proportional values.

Reds 2012 WAR: Position Players

Using Fangraphs' wonderful WAR Graphs tool, here are some charts of the careers (by age) of Cincinnati's main projected infielders, outfielders, and pitchers for 2012.

Positions 3-6 

Note: Both Cozart and Frazier were 25, with WAR of 0.7 on this graph.

My thoughts on this: We'd obviously be delighted to get the same sort of production in 2012 from the right side of our infield that we got in 2011.  It's difficult to imagine the left side doing any worse...one would have to think that either Rolen or Cozart will stay healthy and productive enough to boost their WAR.  Outside of those two possibilities, I don't have much faith in any combination of Janish/Francisco/Valdez/Frazier/Cairo/call-ups to provide big numbers.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 13.1 (all these totals according to baseball-reference, not Fangraphs)
My estimate for 2012: 15.0


Positions 7-9

My thoughts on this: The entire outfield really needs to prove itself.  Bruce is clearly the class of this group but needs more consistency.  He and Stubbs went downhill from 2010 to 2011 (Bruce mostly due to defense, Stubbs mostly due to strikeouts).  It really feels like THE year for both of them to show improvement (at least getting very close to a return to 2010 levels) or they may never be quite the players for which we hoped.  I'm fine with Ludwick as a relatively low-risk acquisition, although obviously all of us wanted a splashier solution in LF...hopefully he and Heisey can push each other to at least a modestly successful performance.  Alonso, Sappelt, Lewis and Gomes are all gone from the 2011 group.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 6.2
My estimate for 2012: 8.0


Catchers

Note: Mesoraco was 23, with WAR of -0.1 on this graph.

My thoughts on this: Ramon's offense will be missed, but Hanigan is still a good contact hitter and solid defensively, and Devin has nowhere to go but up.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 3.6
My estimate for 2012: 4.0

Total WAR estimate for position players: 27 (+4.1 from 2011)

Conclusion: As everyone knows, the Two Princes (if you want to call me baby, just go ahead now) have moved to the AL and Brauny Lad is a 'roider on suspension.  While some want to automatically crown the Reds the offensive champions of the 2012 NL Central, we still need to see more out of guys other than Votto and Phillips.  One thing I always harp on is the fact that the Reds offense is extremely opportunistic and therefore somewhat overrated.  I do feel they will lead the NL in runs scored in 2012 (they were tied for second with Colorado, 27 runs behind St. Louis). 

2011 Cincinnati Reds MVPs and LVPs

This one is based only on Wins Above Replacement.

Offensive WAR
MVP: Votto 5.9
LVP: Janish -1.3

Defensive WAR
MVP: Janish 1.3
LVP: Bruce -1.1 (one of the more surprising developments this year was his drop in defensive value)

Overall WAR
MVP: Votto 6.6
LVP: Francisco -0.4

Pitching WAR
MVP: Cueto 4.3
LVP: Volquez -1.0

Jay Bruce's Walkoff - Not Clutch?

The funny thing about walkoff homers is they aren't always (mathematically, anyway) all that "clutch." Before I get into this discussion, two disclaimers.

1 - Jay Bruce is a great talent and (barring something unexpected) worth every bit of his contract.

2 - Bruce has had some of the most memorable moments at bat and in the field during his time in Cincinnati.

But didn't last night's home run feel a little anti-climactic? Certainly not worthy of the same level of revelry afforded to walkoffs past, let alone division-clinching walkoffs.

There are three main reasons that some (or at least I) felt this way last night.

1 (the obvious) - the Reds aren't in any kind of race, except to finish at/above .500 (which would be really nice)

2 (also obvious) - after Cordero's blown save (first since the All Star Break) it felt like the Reds should have had the game wrapped up already

3 (less obvious) - the situation was not all that dire in terms of win probability

Just a reminder...each team can have anywhere between a 0 and 1 (or 0 and 100 in percentage terms) chance of winning at any moment in the game. Because the Reds were tied and Bruce was batting in the home half of the 11th, with nobody out, and Votto already on second base, they already had an 81% chance of winning.

There were all sorts of ways for them to deal the finishing blow. While it was not an absolute guarantee (especially for the 2011 edition of the Cincinnati Reds) any fan watching was fully expecting a Reds victory after a lead-off double. All this being said, it was pretty darn exciting to defeat the hated Cubs with a bullpen-seeking missile.

I took a look at the 68 total walkoff homers in MLB during 2011. Among them, Bruce's had the third-lowest Win Probability Added (0.19). The only two lower came with the bases loaded and 1 out, meaning there was an even higher expectation of victory already (83%, so the homers resulted in 0.17 WPA).

- You may recall that Ramon Hernandez's Opening Day blast and Brandon Phillips' bomb against the Cardinals were both very clutch. In fact, they're both among the MLB top 3 for walkoff homer WPA this season, with a value of 0.91.

- This was Bruce's third career walkoff home run, and he is now the active career leader over Votto (2) and Stubbs (2)

- Tony Perez (10) has the most all-time of any Red, followed by Adam Dunn (7) and Frank Robinson (6)

Top seasons of Cincinnati Reds first basemen

Continuing up the line from catcher, here are what I consider to be the top seasons (taking mostly offense only into consideration, except the inclusion of defense in overall WAR or winning a Gold Glove). The cutoffs: at least 120 games played in that season, and at least 50% of those at first base. For each, I provide a few of the most impressive statistics (all from baseball-reference of course).

1) Ted Kluszewski, 1954. NL-leading 49 homers (most all-time by a Red 1B). NL-leading 141 RBI (most all-time by a Red 1B). OPS of 1.049 (highest ever by a Red 1B). Absurd WAR of 8.1. Lost out on the MVP award to Willie Mays.

2) Joey Votto, 2010. Led the NL in OBP and SLG (so, obviously, OPS as well). Won the MVP award.

3) Frank McCormick, 1939. Led the league in hits and RBI. Only finished 4th in MVP voting, but would go on to win it in 1940.

The rest of the top ten:
4) Kluszewski, 1955 - led the league in hits
5) McCormick, 1940 - won the MVP, posted 6.0 WAR
6) Jake Daubert, 1922 - led the league in triples, second among Red 1B in RS and BA
7) Frank Robinson, 1959 (one of his non-outfield seasons)
8) Sean Casey, 1999
9) Kluszewski, 1953
10) Votto, 2011 - already 6.5 WAR, most walks ever by a Red

Pitch type values for the four Red regulars

Fangraphs has all kinds of handy stats, including sortable pitch type values. Only four Reds have accumulated sufficient at-bats to really form the basis for judgment in 2011 (or to "qualify for the batting title"), and you probably know which ones - Votto, Phillips, Stubbs and Bruce.

Fastballs:
Votto is 2nd best in MLB
BP, Stubbs and Bruce are all moderately good

Sliders:
Bruce is 6th best in MLB
Votto is neutral
Stubbs and BP are both terrible

Cutters:
Votto and BP are both in the top 30 of MLB
Bruce is moderately good
Stubbs is terrible

Curveballs:
Votto is #37 in MLB
Stubbs is neutral
Bruce is moderately bad
BP is terrible

Changeups:
Votto, Bruce and BP are all moderately good
Stubbs is terrible

Reds who love/hate GABP

Most teams play better at home for obvious reasons. And just about any hitter would prefer to blast away in a place like Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark, where homers come easy. But strangely, 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto is not such a hitter. For his career, he hits 32 points higher on the road. In spite of the slightly diminished home run totals, he hits a lot more doubles and singles in road games. Thank goodness the Reds can rely on his bat on the road (as they did last night against the Cubs), because most of his teammates really scuffle...

Here's a list of some Reds with dramatically (and consistently) better averages at GABP:
Jay Bruce (47 points higher for his career, 23 more home runs at home)
Drew Stubbs (56 points higher for his career, 13 more home runs at home)
Ramon Hernandez (+42 in 2009, +55 in 2010, and +129 in 2011)

Ryan Hanigan is +37 at home for his career, in spite of being +64 on the road in 2011.

Paul Janish was far better away in 2010, but is far better at home in 2011. All in all he averages out to about a .220 lifetime hitter no matter the location, so his splits hardly even merit discussion.

Reds 4 Cubs 2: The men behind the win 9/6/11

Mike Leake's sprint to victory turned into a 13-inning marathon for the Reds. It was frustrating to watch, but worth it in the end.

The heroes:

1) Mike Leake. One mistake pitch to Bryan LaHair, resulting in a 2-run homer with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th to tie things up, meant Leake would not get his much-deserved 2-hit shutout. After a single by Alfonso Soriano in the second (he was erased the very next batter on a Marlon Byrd GIDP), Leake didn't give up a hit again until a cheap infield single in the bottom of the 9th. In between, only two guys reached base - Darwin Barney on catcher's interference, and Soriano on an HBP (Byrd again doubled him up in the 8th). This was true domination by Leake, and everyone in Reds country was disappointed for him when LaHair's blast sailed out to right field.

2) Joey Votto. If not for Leake's gem, this guy would be the clear #1. He provided two of the three RBIs on the night (Mesoraco's GIDP means no RBI for the second of the four runs). Both came on doubles to drive in Dave Sappelt - one in the sixth to put the Reds ahead 1-0, one in the thirteenth to put the Reds ahead 3-2. Both times he broke a long-standing offensive malaise.

3) Dave Sappelt. He got on base 4 of 6 times, and was the key star other than Votto in a manner similar to the Alonso/Sappelt comeback game in Miami. Two doubles, 1 single and a walk. Scored both go-ahead runs on Votto doubles, motoring around the bases like a madman.

4) Sam LeCure. He pitched to one batter, but I'll admit I thought things were over in the bottom of the 10th. The Cubs had all the momentum, and thanks to Nick Masset, they had built a scary situation - bases loaded, 1 out. Enter LeCure to face Jeff Baker. GIDP, inning over.

Honorable mention to Francisco Cordero (1-2-3 for the save in the 13th) and Aroldis Chapman (1.1 scoreless, got the Reds out of Arredondo's mess in the 11th, got the win).

No Red LOBsters worth mentioning...in fact, the Reds went 5 for 13 with RISP so I can't complain.

Tomorrow for all the marbles and a potential fourth straight road series win, it's ace Johnny Cueto vs the often-irritating Ryan Dempster at 8:05 ET. There are some subplots to this one. Can Cueto maintain his lead in the ERA "race" and finally get to 10 wins? If the Reds don't break through against Dempster, can they do so against a quartet of Cub relievers who have given them fits in 2011? In 27 combined innings against Samardzija, Wood, Marmol and Marshall, the Reds have scored only 6 earned runs (2.00 ERA) and struck out 33 times. Finally, the ever-present questions about the youngsters - which ones will play, and which ones will make the most of their opportunities? So far, everyone has contributed but everyone has also shown weaknesses or inconsistencies in some aspect of the game. There is definitely reason for hope in 2012 but the lineup for next year (other than the obvious mainstays) is still completely TBD.

Hot and Cold by WPA

WPA is Win Probability Added. For any play, this ranges from -1 to 1, with most values close to zero. Like many other statistics, it's readily available and sortable on fangraphs.com.

Joey Votto is the leader in all of MLB in positive WPA accumulated (15.45), and second in overall WPA (add in his negative outcomes) to Bautista. For reference, he was second last year in MLB to Miguel Cabrera in both positive and overall WPA.

This metric points out the inconsistency of Bruce, Phillips and Stubbs - the only other Reds with "strangle-holds" on their respective positions, such that they have had opportunities to accumulate plenty of positive and negative WPA.

The three are ranked as follows (on fangraphs) in MLB for 2011 +WPA:
Bruce - 15th
Phillips - 30th
Stubbs - 44th

But they nearly (and in the case of Stubbs, fully) offset these positive outcomes with negative ones, as seen in their rankings for negative WPA:
Stubbs - 3rd in MLB
Bruce - 5th
BP - 15th