Reds' 2012 salaries vs. 2011 WAR

I wanted to look at the value the Reds can expect to get for their money this season, using Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement, and player salaries from Cot's MLB Contracts (with pro-rated bonuses, deferred money, etc. included).

If you want to see the Reds' committed cash for 2012 and beyond, see: 
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj1FG9GPVGFzrJykhM94ogw&output=html


First, I divided everyone into two groups.


Group 1 = everyone with 6+ years of service time, or with salary above $600,000
Group 2 = everyone else


I used 2011 WAR, and obviously 2012 will differ...the whole point of the exercise is to use this as a baseline and see how everything ultimately shakes out in comparison.

GROUP 1

For Group 1, the entire amount of money committed = 81.243 million dollars
For Group 1, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 30.3
Millions spent per win above replacement = 2.68

More breakdowns for Group 1
Millions per WAR, hitters only =  2.08
Millions per WAR, pitchers only = 4.04 (thanks largely to Arroyo)
Millions per WAR, returning Reds only = 2.54


Let's take a look at individual players in Group 1, ranked by millions per WAR, going from best value to worst value.  The players at the very bottom have no values assigned, because dividing by zero (or negative numbers) isn't possible (or logical).


1) Miguel Cairo - 0.53
2) Ryan Hanigan - 0.6
3) Sean Marshall - 1.11
4) Jay Bruce - 1.52
5) Joey Votto - 1.59 - will jump to around 3 million per WAR next season, assuming production is the same
6) Homer Bailey - 1.62
7) Johnny Cueto - 1.93
8) Bill Bray - 2.03
9) Brandon Phillips - 2.04 - but can he keep producing on both offense and defense like he did in 2011?

(GROUP 1 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = POOR VALUE FOR MONEY)

10) Nick Masset - 4.00 - had a bad year in 2011, hopefully bounces back
11) Ryan Madson - 5.00 - and actually worse, now that he's out
12) Aroldis Chapman - 5.83 - this number would undoubtedly improve if he started instead
13) Scott Rolen - 6.28 - a healthy year would help a great deal
14) Ryan Ludwick - 8.33 - Reds are taking a risk, hoping he can post more than 0.3 WAR

(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)

15) Wilson Valdez
16) Jose Arredondo
17) Willie Harris
18) Paul Janish
19) Bronson Arroyo - being paid 12 million


Note that the salaries of Valdez, Arredondo, Harris and Janish are all under 1 million, so at least the amount of money "wasted" (if they don't improve in 2012) would not be terribly painful.  Also note that neither Madson nor Janish is on the major league active roster.



GROUP 2

For Group 2, the entire amount of money committed = 5.49 million dollars
For Group 2, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 11.5
Millions spent per win above replacement = 0.48


Obviously, any positive contributions from this second group (which are a necessity for any team) will make the millions/WAR appear much more favorable than Group 1.  Teams still deserve some credit for picking the right guys though.

Individual players, from best value to worst value (millions per WAR):
1) Mat Latos - 0.17
2) Drew Stubbs - 0.20
3) Chris Heisey - 0.31
4) Mike Leake - 0.34
5) Alfredo Simon - 0.44


(GROUP 2 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = LESS VALUE FOR MONEY)


6) Zack Cozart - 0.69 - but with a healthy year, he'll be one of the best values on the team
7) Todd Frazier - 0.69 - we all like the guy, but very much hope he won't be needed
8) Sam LeCure - 0.98


(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)


9) Andrew Brackman
10) Jordan Smith
11) Logan Ondrusek


Note that Brackman, Frazier and Smith are not on the active major league roster.  Also keep in mind that, at such comparatively small salaries, even a modest improvement this season for guys like Ondrusek or LeCure would make them excellent proportional values.

The men behind the win 7/17/11

1) Homer Bailey. He had some really nice starts earlier this season before the injury, but this is the best and most important to date. Only 6 baserunners in 7.1 IP. Only one mistake pitch, to Berkman for the solo HR. Struggled a couple times with control and wasn't really hitting his spots but the bite on his slider was sufficient that he didn't need pinpoint accuracy.

2) Zack Cozart. Hit his first MLB home run to add a vital insurance run and continues to impress, with at least one hit in every game played so far. Why EVER play Renteria?

3) Miguel Cairo. Whenever you need him, he's there for a spark. A triple?!

4) Ryan Hanigan. It was ugly, but unlike Gomes/Bruce/Stubbs/Phillips/Rolen/Lewis/etc you can count on him to put the ball in play with a man on third.

Huge series win. The Reds will still be 3.0 back of St. Louis and Pittsburgh, and likely 3.5 back of Milwaukee. But we're very much in the race and now have an opportunity to take ground from Pittsburgh. Cueto pitches in the finale Wednesday. Willis/McDonald (toss-up) Monday and Leake/Morton (likely loss) Tuesday.