There has been a lot of discussion of Cozart potentially being traded. While I would disagree with the move, it's a good time to look at where he stands among Reds shortstops in terms of all-time productivity.
Let's compare a few statistics...
Baseball-reference Wins Above Replacement
1) Barry Larkin, in a landslide. 70.2 WAR in a career spanning 1986 to 2004.
2) Dave Concepcion. 39.8 WAR from 1970 to 1988.
3) Roy McMillan. Earned 18.3 WAR from 1951 to 1960.
4) Leo Cardenas. 14.8 WAR from 1960 to 1968.
5) Billy Myers. 13.6 WAR from 1935 to 1940.
6) Zack Cozart. 12.3 WAR from 2011 to 2016.
7) Buck Herzog. 12.0 WAR in only 3 seasons, 1914 to 1916.
8) Eddie Miller. 10.6 WAR, mostly earned during his second stint in Cincinnati from 1943 through 1946.
Offensive WAR only
1) Larkin - 67.5
2) Concepcion - 32.3
3) Cardenas - 13.8
4) McMillan - 12.4
5) Myers - 10.7
6) Buck Herzog - 9.1
7) Felipe Lopez - 6.4
8) Zack Cozart - 6.1
Defensive WAR only
1) Concepcion - 20.9
2) McMillan - 14.4
3) Larkin - 13.8
4) Miller - 10.5
5) Cozart - 9.1
6) Cardenas - 8.5
7) Hod Ford - 7.6
8) Myers - 7.3
NOTE: oWAR and dWAR do not sum to WAR, for a couple different reasons not worth going into in this post.
So it's clear that Larkin and Concepcion were in a class by themselves, as far as all-time Reds shortstops. Cozart falls into the next tier with guys like McMillan, Cardenas, and Myers. But with his consistently solid defensive game, and dramatic improvements on offense, I have little doubt that Cozart would (have) move(d) into the top tier within the next couple seasons, and be a sure-fire Reds Hall of Famer.
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Showing posts with label zack cozart. Show all posts
Showing posts with label zack cozart. Show all posts
Monday, August 1, 2016
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
A few more stats on the Reds' April Offense
Win Probability Added (a value of 1.0 means, essentially, this player has contributed one win to the team):
Best:
Votto 1.2
Bruce: 0.6
Cozart 0.5
Worst:
Stubbs -0.6
Harris -0.6
Rolen - 0.4
For the following two metrics, I compared the entire year of 2011 to April 2012 numbers.
Line-drive percentage (18% is league average)
Improved significantly from 2011:
Bruce - 23 (18 last year)
Rolen - 20 (17)
Cozart - 19 (13)
Declined significantly from 2011:
Phillips - 17 (21 last year)
Stubbs - 16 (20)
Heisey - 15 (20)
The best on the team for this stat is, of course, Joey Votto, checking in at 26% for both years.
Strike-out rate (20% is league average)
Improved significantly from 2011:
Stubbs - 26 (30 last year)
Heisey - 20 (25)
Mesoraco - 8 (19)
Declined significantly from 2011:
Rolen - 20 (13)
You might be surprised to hear that Votto strikes out more than the league average, at 24%.
Best:
Votto 1.2
Bruce: 0.6
Cozart 0.5
Worst:
Stubbs -0.6
Harris -0.6
Rolen - 0.4
For the following two metrics, I compared the entire year of 2011 to April 2012 numbers.
Line-drive percentage (18% is league average)
Improved significantly from 2011:
Bruce - 23 (18 last year)
Rolen - 20 (17)
Cozart - 19 (13)
Declined significantly from 2011:
Phillips - 17 (21 last year)
Stubbs - 16 (20)
Heisey - 15 (20)
The best on the team for this stat is, of course, Joey Votto, checking in at 26% for both years.
Strike-out rate (20% is league average)
Improved significantly from 2011:
Stubbs - 26 (30 last year)
Heisey - 20 (25)
Mesoraco - 8 (19)
Declined significantly from 2011:
Rolen - 20 (13)
You might be surprised to hear that Votto strikes out more than the league average, at 24%.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
The men behind the win 4/5/12: Reds 4, Marlins 0
I'm no Marlins fan, to be sure, but before we get on to celebrating this excellent Opening Day victory, I want to thank their organization for three things:
1) Being such good sports for taking an embarrassing stadium-opening loss to Kyle Lohse, then heading straight up to Cincinnati for an afternoon game against a much better pitcher.
2) Changing their name to Miami, so "Back to the Future 2" can look even more prescient. The only problem was they had Miami facing the Cubs in the World Series, so one team has to move to the AL.
3) Changing their colors to a combination that thugs and wannabes apparently find even more appealing than that of our Redlegs. For years, I've never been sure whether I might say "go Reds" to someone in a Cincinnati hat and have them shoot me. The new Miami hat is everywhere, so honestly, a heartfelt thanks.
Now for the men behind today's win in front of a GABP record crowd...
1) Johnny Cueto. 2011's ace looks like 2012's ace, and I think we'd all be cool with that. No runs, 3 hits in 7 innings. Four strikeouts, 2 walks. Nobody reached third base. Beautiful work.
2) Jay Bruce. Hopefully 2012's Bruce can sustain effectiveness at the plate and in the field after a little dropoff (mostly defensively) in 2011. He was great today - 2 RBIs, including the first of the game (a sacrifice fly) in the 1st, and a solo homer in the 8th to put the Reds up 3-0.
3) Aroldis Chapman. It's really frustrating that we need him in the bullpen this year, but if he's stuck there, let him keep dominating like he did today. With only a 2-run lead in the top of the 8th inning, he held the Marlins in check (striking out two).
4) Zack Cozart. Great to see our shortstop go 2 for 4 in his first regular season game since the unfortunate injury last season. I really feel like this could be our first solid all-around SS since the Larkin days.
1-0. First place. 161 games to go.
1) Being such good sports for taking an embarrassing stadium-opening loss to Kyle Lohse, then heading straight up to Cincinnati for an afternoon game against a much better pitcher.
2) Changing their name to Miami, so "Back to the Future 2" can look even more prescient. The only problem was they had Miami facing the Cubs in the World Series, so one team has to move to the AL.
3) Changing their colors to a combination that thugs and wannabes apparently find even more appealing than that of our Redlegs. For years, I've never been sure whether I might say "go Reds" to someone in a Cincinnati hat and have them shoot me. The new Miami hat is everywhere, so honestly, a heartfelt thanks.
Now for the men behind today's win in front of a GABP record crowd...
1) Johnny Cueto. 2011's ace looks like 2012's ace, and I think we'd all be cool with that. No runs, 3 hits in 7 innings. Four strikeouts, 2 walks. Nobody reached third base. Beautiful work.
2) Jay Bruce. Hopefully 2012's Bruce can sustain effectiveness at the plate and in the field after a little dropoff (mostly defensively) in 2011. He was great today - 2 RBIs, including the first of the game (a sacrifice fly) in the 1st, and a solo homer in the 8th to put the Reds up 3-0.
3) Aroldis Chapman. It's really frustrating that we need him in the bullpen this year, but if he's stuck there, let him keep dominating like he did today. With only a 2-run lead in the top of the 8th inning, he held the Marlins in check (striking out two).
4) Zack Cozart. Great to see our shortstop go 2 for 4 in his first regular season game since the unfortunate injury last season. I really feel like this could be our first solid all-around SS since the Larkin days.
1-0. First place. 161 games to go.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
The men behind the win 7/17/11
1) Homer Bailey. He had some really nice starts earlier this season before the injury, but this is the best and most important to date. Only 6 baserunners in 7.1 IP. Only one mistake pitch, to Berkman for the solo HR. Struggled a couple times with control and wasn't really hitting his spots but the bite on his slider was sufficient that he didn't need pinpoint accuracy.
2) Zack Cozart. Hit his first MLB home run to add a vital insurance run and continues to impress, with at least one hit in every game played so far. Why EVER play Renteria?
3) Miguel Cairo. Whenever you need him, he's there for a spark. A triple?!
4) Ryan Hanigan. It was ugly, but unlike Gomes/Bruce/Stubbs/Phillips/Rolen/Lewis/etc you can count on him to put the ball in play with a man on third.
Huge series win. The Reds will still be 3.0 back of St. Louis and Pittsburgh, and likely 3.5 back of Milwaukee. But we're very much in the race and now have an opportunity to take ground from Pittsburgh. Cueto pitches in the finale Wednesday. Willis/McDonald (toss-up) Monday and Leake/Morton (likely loss) Tuesday.
2) Zack Cozart. Hit his first MLB home run to add a vital insurance run and continues to impress, with at least one hit in every game played so far. Why EVER play Renteria?
3) Miguel Cairo. Whenever you need him, he's there for a spark. A triple?!
4) Ryan Hanigan. It was ugly, but unlike Gomes/Bruce/Stubbs/Phillips/Rolen/Lewis/etc you can count on him to put the ball in play with a man on third.
Huge series win. The Reds will still be 3.0 back of St. Louis and Pittsburgh, and likely 3.5 back of Milwaukee. But we're very much in the race and now have an opportunity to take ground from Pittsburgh. Cueto pitches in the finale Wednesday. Willis/McDonald (toss-up) Monday and Leake/Morton (likely loss) Tuesday.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Leadoff Hitters and First Inning Offense
I mentioned in the previous post that Stubbs' OBP was insufficient for a leadoff man. While certainly not ideal, he's a long way from being the worst choice out there.
In fact, among the past 20 World Series winners (beginning with the Reds, ending with the Giants) five had equal or worse leadoff batter OBPs. Not that it's Hall of Fame company - Dan Gladden, Andres Torres, Luis Castillo, Devon White and Marquis Grissom.
In looking at these statistics I happened upon one other comparison between the current Reds and past champions, which is less favorable. All of the recent champions have been strong offensively in the first inning, scoring an average of 12.68% of their runs in that frame.
The lowest percentage, and only one under 10%, belonged to the 1996 New York Yankees (9.64%). Checking in at a whopping 17.84% were the 1997 Marlins - curiously so, considering their poor leadoff performance that season.
Our beloved Redlegs have been slow starters in 2011. After posting a respectable first inning run total in 2010, only 8.99% of their runs (34 of 378) have come in the opening inning this year.
As an inevitable result, the opposition has scored first in 62% of the games (48 of 78) and the Reds are 22-26 in those contests, only achieving such a decent record because of their late inning heroics.
Want specific players to blame? Among the three players with the most first inning at-bats, only Brandon Phillips hits well (.308 BA). Stubbs is an abysmal .177 and Votto an uncharacteristic .262 (but his OBP is still .395).
Guys like Jay Bruce (.292) and Scott Rolen (.267) likely have their statistics skewed upward by the fact they would only bat in the first if the Reds are succeeding against the pitcher.
In conclusion, we're still searching for our man at leadoff. Heisey may have hit pretty well now for a few games, but he's still only 2 for 11 in the first inning.
I've long thought that we should give Fred Lewis a shot now and then, as he does boast a career leadoff average higher than his overall average, and if I recall correctly he is the ONLY player on the Reds' roster with such a statistic.
This may (hopefully) become moot, with the (hopefully) imminent arrival of Dave Sappelt. Zack Cozart is another player with potential to give the Reds' inconsistent offense a shot in the arm, but that's a discussion for another day.
In fact, among the past 20 World Series winners (beginning with the Reds, ending with the Giants) five had equal or worse leadoff batter OBPs. Not that it's Hall of Fame company - Dan Gladden, Andres Torres, Luis Castillo, Devon White and Marquis Grissom.
In looking at these statistics I happened upon one other comparison between the current Reds and past champions, which is less favorable. All of the recent champions have been strong offensively in the first inning, scoring an average of 12.68% of their runs in that frame.
The lowest percentage, and only one under 10%, belonged to the 1996 New York Yankees (9.64%). Checking in at a whopping 17.84% were the 1997 Marlins - curiously so, considering their poor leadoff performance that season.
Our beloved Redlegs have been slow starters in 2011. After posting a respectable first inning run total in 2010, only 8.99% of their runs (34 of 378) have come in the opening inning this year.
As an inevitable result, the opposition has scored first in 62% of the games (48 of 78) and the Reds are 22-26 in those contests, only achieving such a decent record because of their late inning heroics.
Want specific players to blame? Among the three players with the most first inning at-bats, only Brandon Phillips hits well (.308 BA). Stubbs is an abysmal .177 and Votto an uncharacteristic .262 (but his OBP is still .395).
Guys like Jay Bruce (.292) and Scott Rolen (.267) likely have their statistics skewed upward by the fact they would only bat in the first if the Reds are succeeding against the pitcher.
In conclusion, we're still searching for our man at leadoff. Heisey may have hit pretty well now for a few games, but he's still only 2 for 11 in the first inning.
I've long thought that we should give Fred Lewis a shot now and then, as he does boast a career leadoff average higher than his overall average, and if I recall correctly he is the ONLY player on the Reds' roster with such a statistic.
This may (hopefully) become moot, with the (hopefully) imminent arrival of Dave Sappelt. Zack Cozart is another player with potential to give the Reds' inconsistent offense a shot in the arm, but that's a discussion for another day.
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