Mat Latos among a dozen early NL Cy Young contenders

The MLB trend toward dominant pitching continues.  In the National League, the average team ERA was 4.49 just seven seasons ago.  It has steadily decreased to a current mark of 3.82.  Along with that team trend, the individual competition for Cy Young Awards has gotten much tougher.

Mat Latos has been amazing lately - with 20 consecutive non-losing starts dating back to last August, he has set a Reds record for any pitcher since at least 1916.  He's 6-0, with a fantastic 2.87 ERA.  The fact that he still might not even be among the top 5 Cy contenders in the league shows just how ridiculously solid the state of MLB pitching is.

I picked the top 12 statistical performers so far (through the day games on June 9th, 2013).  Here they are, ranked in various categories:

Wins:
1) Adam Wainwright 9
1) Jordan Zimmermann 9
1) Patrick Corbin 9
4) Lance Lynn 8
4) Mike Minor 8
6) Shelby Miller 7
6) Cliff Lee 7
8) Mat Latos 6
8) Hyun-Jin Ryu 6
10) Clayton Kershaw 5
11) Matt Harvey 5
12) Travis Wood 5

ERA:
1) Miller 1.91
2) Kershaw 1.93
3) Corbin 1.98
4) Zimmermann 2.00
5) Harvey 2.10
6) Wainwright 2.34
7) Minor 2.44
8) Lee 2.55
9) Wood 2.65
10) Ryu 2.72
11) Lynn 2.76
12) Latos 2.87

WAR:
1) Wainwright 3.8
2) Kershaw 3.4
2) Lee 3.4
4) Miller 3.3
4) Harvey 3.3
6) Corbin 2.9
7) Wood 2.4
8) Zimmermann 2.3
9) Lynn 2.3
10) Minor 1.9
10) Ryu 1.9
12) Latos 1.6

Strikeouts:
1) Harvey 95
2) Wainwright 91
2) Kershaw 91
4) Lee 93
5) Miller 81
6) Minor 78
7) Lynn 76
8) Latos 74
9) Ryu 73
10) Corbin 65
11) Zimmermann 61
12) Wood 56

xFIP:
1) Wainwright 2.53
2) Harvey 2.88
3) Miller 3.10
4) Kershaw 3.21
5) Lee 3.29
6) Ryu 3.42
7) Latos 3.52
8) Zimmermann 3.55
8) Minor 3.55
10) Lynn 3.62
11) Corbin 3.82
12) Wood 4.43
 
Total combined rankings (averaging everything above)
1) Adam Wainwright
2) Shelby Miller
3) Clayton Kershaw
4) Matt Harvey
5) Cliff Lee
6) Patrick Corbin
7) Jordan Zimmermann
8) Mike Minor
9) Lance Lynn
10) Hyun-Jin Ryu 
11) Mat Latos
12) Travis Wood

No matter how you slice it, Latos has been one of the most valuable pitchers to any team in baseball so far.  But he'll have a lot of work to do if he wants to finish with the Cy.

The story behind BP's production is more than just opportunity

Many would assert, with some degree of truth, that Brandon Phillips leads the National League in RBI (with 42 entering play on Sunday 5/26) because of increased opportunities.  Votto and Choo have done such an incredible job getting on base (ranking 1st and 3rd in all of MLB for that category so far), that Brandon has had a wealth of chances.

Most runners on base for 2013 National League batters:
1) Brandon Phillips - 170
2) Jay Bruce - 159
3) Hunter Pence - 150
4) Yonder Alonso - 145
5) Zack Cozart - 141

This list tells a couple different stories.  First off, the Reds' offense has been generating a ton of opportunities.  To have 3 of the top 5 in this category is pretty absurd.  However, production is much more than opportunity...because as we all know, the three Reds on this list have had very different levels of success when they've batted with runners on.

Among the 125 batters in MLB who have had at least 100 runners on this season, Brandon ranks 13th in percentage of those runners driven in (20%).  Bruce rates a respectable 15.72%, good for 57th on the list.  Cozart is near the bottom - 109th at only 10.64% of runners driven in.  If you haven't considered this particular statistic before, I would summarize it as follows:

< 9% = terrible
9-11% = poor
12-14% = mediocre
15-17% = good
18-20% = excellent
>20% = outstanding

For his career, Phillips has been a good (but usually not great) producer with runners on.  Here are the percentages, rounded off to the nearest whole numbers:

2006 - 15%
2007 - 14%
2008 - 15%
2009 - 17%
2010 - 12%
2011 - 16%
2012 - 15%
2013 - 20%

Two years stand out - 2013 for success, and 2010 for lack thereof.  The biggest thing that can help you succeed in these situations is extra-base hits.  According to Fangraphs numbers, BP's 2010 isolated slugging percentage was only .155 (third-worst of his Reds career), while he's at .189 this season (second-best).  

At his current pace, Brandon would accumulate 40 doubles (a career high) and 26 homers (second only to his breakout 2007 season).  

Will he sustain this production level?  Maybe not.  But his improved approach and skill at the plate will certainly give him a good chance.  A number of his XBH this season have punctuated lengthy at-bats where he fouled off pitches until he got one to deliver into the gap (or the seats). While his overall pitches seen per plate appearance stat (about 3.7) has not changed this year, he makes the adjustments necessary in big situations, and quite visibly relishes the role of dependable RBI man.

Here's hoping that Brandon keeps it going, because he's on pace for some history.  Only Joe Morgan has ever driven in 100 runs in a season as a Reds second baseman, and he did it just once, with 111 in 1976.  BP is on pace for 138 RBI - that would be the 5th highest single-season total ever by any second baseman in major league baseball.

Statistics from baseballmusings.com, fangraphs.com, mlb.com and espn.com

Cincinnati (and NL) Sacrifice Bunting Statistics

Disclaimer: Like everybody, I'm thrilled with how the Reds are playing these days.  Who wouldn't be?  With that out of the way, though...

During tonight's Reds TV broadcast, Thom Brennaman was lamenting Cincinnati's lack of bunting execution, and rightfully so.  Miguel Cairo had just fouled out on an attempt, the sixth time a Reds player has struck out while trying to bunt this year. 

Below are some statistics on success rate of NL teams.  But first, some important notes:

- I define "success rate" as:
(Hits on Sacrifice Attempts + Successful Sacrifices + Reached on Error on Sacrifice Attempt) / (Sacrifice Attempts + Strikeouts on Foul Bunts + Strikeouts on Missed Bunts). 

- You may disagree with my inclusion of errors as successes, but to some extent, placement of the bunt can lead to errors.  And more importantly, in most cases, the error is made in an attempt to record the out at first...which means it would've been a sacrifice anyway.  Besides, the Reds have reached base on errors in sacrifice attempts more (7 times) than any other NL team...so changing the methodology would only strengthen the overall point that the Reds are terrible at bunting.

- This analysis does NOT include attempts to bunt for base hits, nor those ABs in which the original intent was to bunt, but the hitter changed his mind with two strikes.  Most Reds fans, including myself, probably feel that our statistics would be among the worst in the league in these areas as well, but I can't offer any numbers on these situations at the moment.  If I figure out an accurate way to do so, I'll post it.

The best:
1) Pittsburgh - 89% success rate
2) Philadelphia - 87
3) Arizona - 83
4) Colorado - 81
5) Houston - 80
6) New York, San Diego - 79
8) Milwaukee - 78 (including a league-leading 13 base hits on their attempts)

The worst:
9) San Francisco - 77% success rate
10) St. Louis, Atlanta - 75
12) Los Angeles - 73
13) Cincinnati, Washington - 71
15) Miami - 67
16) Chicago - 61 

To make matters worse, the Reds are also second in the league in attempts (83), trailing only the Brewers (97).  Therefore, they lead the whole league in most ABs thrown away on failed sacrifice attempts:

Most failed ABs

1) Cincinnati - 24

2) Los Angeles, Milwaukee - 21
4) Chicago, Miami - 20

Just for good measure, I'll include success rate where "reached on error" is counted as a failure (although, as I said earlier, I disagree with this).

Alternate success rate rankings (reached on error counts as failure):
1) Philadelphia - 85
2) Houston - 80
3) Pittsburgh, Arizona - 79
5) New York - 75
6) San Francisco, San Diego - 74
8) Milwaukee, Atlanta - 73
10) St. Louis, Colorado - 72
12) Los Angeles - 70
13) Miami - 67
14) Washington - 64

15) Cincinnati - 63

16) Chicago - 59

And using the same method (errors count as failures):

Most failed ABs

1) Cincinnati - 31

2) Milwaukee - 26
3) Los Angeles - 23
4) Chicago - 21
5) Miami - 20

So now you may be wondering (if you made it this far) what the individual Reds' stats are in 2012....

Reds player success rate (sacrifice hits + hits / sacrifice attempts) (minimum 4 attempts)
Leake, Hanigan - 100%
Cueto - 86%
Valdez - 71%
Heisey - 60%
Latos - 58%
Bailey, Cozart, Stubbs, Arroyo - 50%

Most successful sacrifice attempts (sacrifices and base hits):
1) Cueto - 12
2) Latos - 7
3) Valdez - 5
4) Leake, Hanigan, Stubbs - 4

Most failures (force outs, strikeouts, or reached on error):
1) Latos, Bailey - 5
2) Stubbs - 4
3) Arroyo, Cozart - 3 

Longest winning streaks in Cincinnati Reds history

Here's a list of all the double-digit winning streaks (17 total) in Reds MLB history:
1) 14 games (1899)
2) 13 games (1890)
3) 12 games (1939, 1957)
4) 11 games (1894, 1896)
5) 10 games (1882, 1884, 1895, 1897, 1919, 1939, 1943, 1975, 1998, 1999, 2012)

Of course, the 1869 Red Stockings were a perfect 65-0.  However, that was not only a different franchise than the current one - it also was not an MLB team, as it was the only fully professional team in existence at the time.

The Reds have had 16 double-digit losing streaks, including a 19-gamer in 1914.

Since 1900, the Reds have had 9 double-digit winning streaks, including the current one.

Among the previous 8, only 3 occurred as late in the season as the current one.  


Considering the season in which streaks occurred, the date at which they occurred, and the effect on the standings, here are the most important since 1900:

1) 1999. 10 game streak through July 1st.  Started behind 5.5 games, finished up a half game on Houston.  Even if they ultimately missed the playoffs because of the play-in game, this streak was huge at the time.

2) 1939.  12 game streak in May.  Started behind 1.5 games, finished up 2 games.  Eventually won the NL pennant, partly thanks to another 10-game streak in July that boosted their lead from 8 to 12 games.

3) 1919.  10 game streak through August 26th.  Started up 6 games, finished up 9 games.  Eventually won the World Series.

4) 1975.  10 game streak through July 13th.  Started up 7 games, finished up 12.5 games.  Eventually won the World Series.

5) 2012.  10 game streak (and counting) through July 29th.  Started tied in the division, currently up 3 games.    


In case you were wondering:
Longest winning streak in MLB history: 26 games (New York Giants, 1916)
Longest winning streak in AL history: 20 games (Oakland Athletics, 2002)

Oldest MLB franchises, cities and nicknames

For Reds fans, history is rightfully a point of pride.  But I do prefer to use facts instead of oft-repeated myths.


Professional baseball did, for all intents and purposes, start in Cincinnati in 1869.  However, that franchise is not connected to the current Cincinnati Reds as many fans believe.  In fact, it failed to remain financially viable, folded, and half the team became the original Boston Red Stockings who are now the Atlanta Braves.  Confused yet?  Good.  How about a few lists to muddy the waters a bit further?


The earliest MLB franchises still in existence (American Association, National League or American League teams):
1) Atlanta Braves (as the Boston Red Stockings, 1876 National League)
1) Chicago Cubs (as the Chicago White Stockings, 1876 National League)
3) Cincinnati Reds (as the Cincinnati Red Stockings, 1882 American Association)
3) Pittsburgh Pirates (as the Pittsburgh Alleghenys, 1882 American Association)
3) St. Louis Cardinals (as the St. Louis Brown Stockings, 1882 American Association)
6) Philadelphia Phillies (as the Philadelphia Quakers, 1883 National League)
6) San Francisco Giants (as the New York Gothams, 1883 National League)
8) Los Angeles Dodgers (as the Brooklyn Atlantics, 1884 American Association)

All others began in the 20th century.




The earliest MLB franchises (still in existence) to inhabit their current cities
1) Chicago Cubs (as White Stockings in 1876)
2) Cincinnati Reds (as Red Stockings in 1882)
2) Pittsburgh Pirates (as Alleghenys in 1882)
2) St. Louis Cardinals (as Brown Stockings in 1882)
5) Philadelphia Phillies (as Quakers in 1883)
6) Detroit Tigers (1901)
6) Chicago White Sox (1901)
6) Cleveland Indians (as Blues in 1901)
6) Boston Red Sox (as Americans in 1901)
10) New York Yankees (as Highlanders in 1903) 


All others moved to, or started in, their current cities in the 1950s or later.




The earliest MLB franchises to adopt their current nicknames (even if later abandoned and re-adopted)
1) San Francisco Giants, 1885 (in New York)
2) Cincinnati Reds, 1890 (switched to Redlegs from 1954-1959, then back to Reds)
2) Philadelphia Phillies, 1890
4) Pittsburgh Pirates, 1891
5) St. Louis Cardinals, 1900
6) Detroit Tigers, 1901
6) Chicago White Sox, 1901
6) Oakland Athletics, 1901 (in Philadelphia)
9) Chicago Cubs, 1903
10) Boston Red Sox, 1908
11) Los Angeles Dodgers, 1911 (in Brooklyn, and switched to Superbas in 1913, Robins in 1914, back to Dodgers in 1932)
12) Atlanta Braves, 1912 (in Boston)
13) New York Yankees, 1913
14) Cleveland Indians, 1915


All others adopted their current names in the 1950s or later.




The earliest MLB franchises to exist with their current cities AND nickname (even if later abandoned and re-adopted)
1) Cincinnati Reds, 1890 (switched to Redlegs from 1954-1959, then back to Reds)
1) Philadelphia Phillies, 1890
3) Pittsburgh Pirates, 1891
4) St. Louis Cardinals, 1900
5) Detroit Tigers, 1901
5) Chicago White Sox, 1901
7) Chicago Cubs, 1903
8) Boston Red Sox, 1908
9) New York Yankees, 1913
10) Cleveland Indians, 1915

All others first matched the current configuration in the 1950s or later. 


The longest-standing previous forms of current franchises
1) San Francisco Giants - played as the New York Giants for 83 seasons
2) Minnesota Twins - played as the Washington Senators for 60 seasons
3) Oakland Athletics - played as the Philadelphia Athletics for 54 seasons
4) Baltimore Orioles - played as the St. Louis Browns for 52 seasons
5) Atlanta Braves - played as the Boston Braves for 41 seasons


A few oddities:


- The New York Yankees began as the Baltimore Orioles in 1901.


- The Baltimore Orioles began as the Milwaukee Brewers in 1901, then the St. Louis Browns from 1902 through 1953.


- The Dodgers have had a ridiculous number of nicknames: Atlantics, Grays, Bridegrooms, Grooms, back to Bridegrooms, Superbas, Dodgers, back to Superbas, Robins, and finally back to Dodgers.  That's ten different incarnations with seven different names.


- Two different current franchises began as two separate forms of the Washington Senators.  The 1901 version of the Senators eventually became the Minnesota Twins (in 1961).  The 1961 version of the Senators eventually became the Texas Rangers (in 1972).


- Of the 16 current franchises established in 1901 or earlier, only three have kept the exact same nickname throughout history: the Tigers, White Sox, and Athletics.




Baseball-reference.com was my main source for this post.  If you find any errors, don't hesitate to point them out.