Choo changing the entire Reds offense

In 2012, the Cincinnati Reds offense struggled in one very major way.  Only Votto (.474), Hanigan (.365) and Ludwick (.346) got on base consistently.  Here were their OBP ranks by position in MLB:

C - .333 (10th)
1B - .423 (1st)
2B - .306 (22nd)
3B - .304 (23rd)
SS - .284 (25th)
LF - .339 (10th)
CF - .282 (30th)
RF - .320 (21st)
 
Note: Reds pitchers were also above average with a .176 OBP (9th in MLB) but the 9th spot in the order isn't something you rely on for production on a game-to-game basis.

And here are their rankings through 40 games in 2013:

C - .290 (21st)
1B - .455 (1st) - leading all other teams by 37 points
2B - .333 (11th)
3B - .314 (19th)
SS - .250 (28th)
LF - .302 (21st)
CF - .468 (1st) - leading all other teams by 73 points
RF - .303 (19th)

As you can see, the only huge change was in CF.  Votto's OBP is actually lower this year than last, but the team number for first base has improved as a result of him having 100% of the playing time so far this year.  

Choo is almost single-handedly responsible for the team OBP jumping from an abysmal .315 last year (22nd in the league) to .335 in 2013, which now ranks third in baseball.  Even with Cozart's weak bat behind him, Choo is tied for the MLB lead in runs scored (33).  Just imagine the numbers he might be putting up with Ludwick healthy and BP back in the 2-hole...

Reds win one of the most dominating playoff games in franchise history

By the numbers...

Reds win 9-0 shutout
- only the 12th MLB playoff shutout victory by 9 runs or more
- the largest Reds playoff shutout (previous record was 7-0 in 1990 WS game 1)
- only the 55th MLB playoff team pitching game allowing 2 or fewer hits, and the 4th by the Reds
- tied for the largest Reds playoff game winning margin (with 10-1 win in 1995 NLDS game 3)
- the 7th shutout in Reds playoff history, first since 7-0 in 1990 WS game 1
- only the 4th time the Reds have scored 9+ runs in a playoff game

Bronson Arroyo sparkles like a teen vampire
- the first 7+ inning game, allowing 1 or fewer hits, by a Reds pitcher in team playoff history
- only the 6th MLB playoff starting pitching performance of 7+ innings and 1 hit or fewer, 1 walk or fewer
- only the 14th Reds playoff starting pitching game score of 70 or higher

Brandon Phillips and Co. make individual offensive history for a Reds playoff game
- DatDudeBP is now tied for 19th in Reds playoff hits (9) and RBI (5) 
- Ryan Hanigan got his first three career playoff RBI, and Drew Stubbs got his first career playoff RBI
- Ryan Hanigan was only the 17th Reds player ever with 3+ RBI in a playoff game
- Scott Rolen had his 12th career playoff RBI, but first with the Reds

The Reds are now 8-1 all-time in playoff games on the west coast.

Most importantly, they're coming home with a 2-0 lead in the NLDS.

Cincinnati Reds: August 2012 Summary

The Reds went 19-11 in August, which was their second-best mark of 2012 (behind the 19-7 record in July).  They now sit at 81-52, with the most wins in all of baseball and only a slightly worse winning percentage than the Washington Nationals.  Because both Pittsburgh and St. Louis struggled a bit, they both fell farther behind in the NL Central.  The Reds' lead over Pittsburgh expanded from 3 to 10 games, and their lead over St. Louis from 7 to 9.5 games.
Cincinnati played 8 complete series in August, winning 5 (one sweep at Arizona), losing 2 (one sweep at Milwaukee) and splitting 1 (at Philadelphia).  At the start of the month, they also finished off a winning series at home against San Diego with two wins.  At the end of the month, they won the first game of a series in Houston.

**The Reds already have six different winning streaks of 5+ games this season, and could make it seven with a win on September 1st**

Home record: 10-5 (4-1 to finish their first stand, 5-2 in the second, then lost a series against St. Louis)
Road record: 9-6 (3-4 in the Milwaukee/Chicago trip, 2-2 in Philly, 4-0 so far in Arizona/Houston)

vs East: 4-3
vs Central: 10-8 (a little disappointing)
vs West: 5-0

Overall offensive trends: The offense continued its successful summer, in fact posting its best batting average of the year (.272) in spite of missing Votto for the entire month.  Ludwick, Rolen and Frazier continues to star.  Bruce stepped up after a mediocre July.  Heisey has emerged as a possible hope in CF after Stubbs returned to poor form after his deceiving pre-deadline surge.  The team also slugged an impressive 38 HR in 30 games, with Ludwick and Bruce providing 7 each.


Overall pitching trends: The staff actually had its worst month of the year as a whole, but the numbers were still fairly good, which goes to show how much improvement the organization has had since recent years.  Both the starters (3.96 ERA) and relievers (3.31 ERA) had their worst marks.  There were still some impressive individual performances, and they closed out the month with four straight solid outings on the road.

Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from July (20 or more OPS+ points): Cairo +65, Hanigan +55, Bruce +50, Cozart +44, Frazier +30

DOWN significantly from July (20 or more OPS+ points): Paul -163, Mesoraco -96, Valdez -81, Stubbs -67, Ludwick -22

No significant change: Rolen, Heisey, Phillips (all had good months)....Votto (still injured)

New arrivals: Dioner Navarro had only 6 hits but two were key homers.




Individual pitching trends:

UP significantly from July: Latos, Simon, Leake, Arredondo

DOWN significantly from July: LeCure, Marshall, Bailey, Arroyo (only in terms of ERA), Ondrusek

No significant change: Chapman (still dominant), Cueto (still dominant)




New arrivals: Hoover was awesome in his return, trade acquisition Broxton has been pretty solid overall, and Redmond was shaky in his fill-in start


And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of August...

RANDY HITTER: Todd Frazier.  The clear favorite for NL Rookie of the Year went .330/.393/.587 with 6 HR, 8 doubles and a team-leading 25 RBI.

Honorable mention: Ryan Ludwick, Jay Bruce

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Ryan Hanigan.  A guy with only 19 RBI on the year had 7 in August, including some very key hits (one of them a walk-off).

RANDY STARTER: Johnny Cueto.  Our ace was awesome again...4-1, 2.76, 0.85 WHIP.  38 K and only 7 walks.

Honorable mention: Mat Latos had a 2.61 ERA and insufficient run support.  Bronson Arroyo had 5 wins.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Mike Leake.

RANDY RELIEVER: Aroldis Chapman, again.  After a spotless July, allowed only one run in August.  0.68 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 18 K and 2 walks in 13 IP.  11 for 11 in save opportunities.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Jose Arredondo.  After a poor July, posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in August to return to form.

RANDY NOOB: Dioner Navarro.  Two key and unexpected homers.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Brandon Phillips.  He hates the WLBs, and he gave a hell of a performance on August 25th in helping the Reds win at least one game of the home St. Louis series.  BP went 3 for 5 with a homer and 2 important RBI in an 8-2 win.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Mike Leake.  When people looked at the Leake/Dickey matchup on August 15th, they probably didn't expect Leake to dominate it.  But he did.  In that 6-1 win, he tossed a complete game, allowing only 1 run and 4 hits.  Leake struck out 4 and didn't walk a batter.  Meanwhile, the Reds offense went yard multiple times off the knuckleballer in his support.

Cincinnati (and NL) Sacrifice Bunting Statistics

Disclaimer: Like everybody, I'm thrilled with how the Reds are playing these days.  Who wouldn't be?  With that out of the way, though...

During tonight's Reds TV broadcast, Thom Brennaman was lamenting Cincinnati's lack of bunting execution, and rightfully so.  Miguel Cairo had just fouled out on an attempt, the sixth time a Reds player has struck out while trying to bunt this year. 

Below are some statistics on success rate of NL teams.  But first, some important notes:

- I define "success rate" as:
(Hits on Sacrifice Attempts + Successful Sacrifices + Reached on Error on Sacrifice Attempt) / (Sacrifice Attempts + Strikeouts on Foul Bunts + Strikeouts on Missed Bunts). 

- You may disagree with my inclusion of errors as successes, but to some extent, placement of the bunt can lead to errors.  And more importantly, in most cases, the error is made in an attempt to record the out at first...which means it would've been a sacrifice anyway.  Besides, the Reds have reached base on errors in sacrifice attempts more (7 times) than any other NL team...so changing the methodology would only strengthen the overall point that the Reds are terrible at bunting.

- This analysis does NOT include attempts to bunt for base hits, nor those ABs in which the original intent was to bunt, but the hitter changed his mind with two strikes.  Most Reds fans, including myself, probably feel that our statistics would be among the worst in the league in these areas as well, but I can't offer any numbers on these situations at the moment.  If I figure out an accurate way to do so, I'll post it.

The best:
1) Pittsburgh - 89% success rate
2) Philadelphia - 87
3) Arizona - 83
4) Colorado - 81
5) Houston - 80
6) New York, San Diego - 79
8) Milwaukee - 78 (including a league-leading 13 base hits on their attempts)

The worst:
9) San Francisco - 77% success rate
10) St. Louis, Atlanta - 75
12) Los Angeles - 73
13) Cincinnati, Washington - 71
15) Miami - 67
16) Chicago - 61 

To make matters worse, the Reds are also second in the league in attempts (83), trailing only the Brewers (97).  Therefore, they lead the whole league in most ABs thrown away on failed sacrifice attempts:

Most failed ABs

1) Cincinnati - 24

2) Los Angeles, Milwaukee - 21
4) Chicago, Miami - 20

Just for good measure, I'll include success rate where "reached on error" is counted as a failure (although, as I said earlier, I disagree with this).

Alternate success rate rankings (reached on error counts as failure):
1) Philadelphia - 85
2) Houston - 80
3) Pittsburgh, Arizona - 79
5) New York - 75
6) San Francisco, San Diego - 74
8) Milwaukee, Atlanta - 73
10) St. Louis, Colorado - 72
12) Los Angeles - 70
13) Miami - 67
14) Washington - 64

15) Cincinnati - 63

16) Chicago - 59

And using the same method (errors count as failures):

Most failed ABs

1) Cincinnati - 31

2) Milwaukee - 26
3) Los Angeles - 23
4) Chicago - 21
5) Miami - 20

So now you may be wondering (if you made it this far) what the individual Reds' stats are in 2012....

Reds player success rate (sacrifice hits + hits / sacrifice attempts) (minimum 4 attempts)
Leake, Hanigan - 100%
Cueto - 86%
Valdez - 71%
Heisey - 60%
Latos - 58%
Bailey, Cozart, Stubbs, Arroyo - 50%

Most successful sacrifice attempts (sacrifices and base hits):
1) Cueto - 12
2) Latos - 7
3) Valdez - 5
4) Leake, Hanigan, Stubbs - 4

Most failures (force outs, strikeouts, or reached on error):
1) Latos, Bailey - 5
2) Stubbs - 4
3) Arroyo, Cozart - 3 

Reds' 2012 salaries vs. 2011 WAR

I wanted to look at the value the Reds can expect to get for their money this season, using Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement, and player salaries from Cot's MLB Contracts (with pro-rated bonuses, deferred money, etc. included).

If you want to see the Reds' committed cash for 2012 and beyond, see: 
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj1FG9GPVGFzrJykhM94ogw&output=html


First, I divided everyone into two groups.


Group 1 = everyone with 6+ years of service time, or with salary above $600,000
Group 2 = everyone else


I used 2011 WAR, and obviously 2012 will differ...the whole point of the exercise is to use this as a baseline and see how everything ultimately shakes out in comparison.

GROUP 1

For Group 1, the entire amount of money committed = 81.243 million dollars
For Group 1, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 30.3
Millions spent per win above replacement = 2.68

More breakdowns for Group 1
Millions per WAR, hitters only =  2.08
Millions per WAR, pitchers only = 4.04 (thanks largely to Arroyo)
Millions per WAR, returning Reds only = 2.54


Let's take a look at individual players in Group 1, ranked by millions per WAR, going from best value to worst value.  The players at the very bottom have no values assigned, because dividing by zero (or negative numbers) isn't possible (or logical).


1) Miguel Cairo - 0.53
2) Ryan Hanigan - 0.6
3) Sean Marshall - 1.11
4) Jay Bruce - 1.52
5) Joey Votto - 1.59 - will jump to around 3 million per WAR next season, assuming production is the same
6) Homer Bailey - 1.62
7) Johnny Cueto - 1.93
8) Bill Bray - 2.03
9) Brandon Phillips - 2.04 - but can he keep producing on both offense and defense like he did in 2011?

(GROUP 1 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = POOR VALUE FOR MONEY)

10) Nick Masset - 4.00 - had a bad year in 2011, hopefully bounces back
11) Ryan Madson - 5.00 - and actually worse, now that he's out
12) Aroldis Chapman - 5.83 - this number would undoubtedly improve if he started instead
13) Scott Rolen - 6.28 - a healthy year would help a great deal
14) Ryan Ludwick - 8.33 - Reds are taking a risk, hoping he can post more than 0.3 WAR

(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)

15) Wilson Valdez
16) Jose Arredondo
17) Willie Harris
18) Paul Janish
19) Bronson Arroyo - being paid 12 million


Note that the salaries of Valdez, Arredondo, Harris and Janish are all under 1 million, so at least the amount of money "wasted" (if they don't improve in 2012) would not be terribly painful.  Also note that neither Madson nor Janish is on the major league active roster.



GROUP 2

For Group 2, the entire amount of money committed = 5.49 million dollars
For Group 2, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 11.5
Millions spent per win above replacement = 0.48


Obviously, any positive contributions from this second group (which are a necessity for any team) will make the millions/WAR appear much more favorable than Group 1.  Teams still deserve some credit for picking the right guys though.

Individual players, from best value to worst value (millions per WAR):
1) Mat Latos - 0.17
2) Drew Stubbs - 0.20
3) Chris Heisey - 0.31
4) Mike Leake - 0.34
5) Alfredo Simon - 0.44


(GROUP 2 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = LESS VALUE FOR MONEY)


6) Zack Cozart - 0.69 - but with a healthy year, he'll be one of the best values on the team
7) Todd Frazier - 0.69 - we all like the guy, but very much hope he won't be needed
8) Sam LeCure - 0.98


(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)


9) Andrew Brackman
10) Jordan Smith
11) Logan Ondrusek


Note that Brackman, Frazier and Smith are not on the active major league roster.  Also keep in mind that, at such comparatively small salaries, even a modest improvement this season for guys like Ondrusek or LeCure would make them excellent proportional values.

Reds who love/hate GABP

Most teams play better at home for obvious reasons. And just about any hitter would prefer to blast away in a place like Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark, where homers come easy. But strangely, 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto is not such a hitter. For his career, he hits 32 points higher on the road. In spite of the slightly diminished home run totals, he hits a lot more doubles and singles in road games. Thank goodness the Reds can rely on his bat on the road (as they did last night against the Cubs), because most of his teammates really scuffle...

Here's a list of some Reds with dramatically (and consistently) better averages at GABP:
Jay Bruce (47 points higher for his career, 23 more home runs at home)
Drew Stubbs (56 points higher for his career, 13 more home runs at home)
Ramon Hernandez (+42 in 2009, +55 in 2010, and +129 in 2011)

Ryan Hanigan is +37 at home for his career, in spite of being +64 on the road in 2011.

Paul Janish was far better away in 2010, but is far better at home in 2011. All in all he averages out to about a .220 lifetime hitter no matter the location, so his splits hardly even merit discussion.

Reds 3 Cardinals 2: The men behind the win 9/4/11

It may not mean much in light of the abomination of a series versus the Phillies which preceded it, but a series win on the Cardinals' home turf is always a welcome sight. In fact it was the first series win in St. Louis since a successful sweep in June of 2006, a span of 12 series including two sweeps, nine times that they lost 2 of 3, and one split of a 4-gamer in 2009.

The heroes today:

1) Juan Francisco. It's too early to judge but he's certainly had a nice first 4 games back in MLB. He went 4 for 5 with the game-winning, 2 out RBI today off Fernando Salas in the top of the 10th inning, ending 5 straight innings of nail-biting scoreless baseball.

2) Bronson Arroyo. A no-decision wasn't proper reward for his effort, scattering 10 hits over 8 innings and leaving the Reds tied 2-2. He struck out 5 and didn't walk a batter. Jon Jay got to him for a solo shot in the 1st, and Descalso had an RBI triple in the 4th to tie it, but Arroyo kept it that way through the next 4 innings.

3) Edgar Renteria. You know it was a slow day for offensive production (not for hits but for runs) when one of the top performers struck out three times. But his two-run dong in the top of the first off Edwin Jackson was the Reds' only regulation tally.

4) Francisco Cordero. Pitched a 1-2-3 10th inning for his 30th save.

Honorable mention to BP for going 2 for 4, getting on base 3 of 5 times in the leadoff spot, and raising his average to .301.

Red LOBster of the day: Ryan Hanigan (6 LOB). He had three different opportunities to hit with men on 1st and 3rd and 2 out (in the 6th, 8th and 10th innings) and came up empty each time.

Next up: 3 games in Chicago. In the first one, the Reds might try to get Willis a win for the first time in a Cincinnati uniform.

Ryan Hanigan: Harbinger of Victory?

Scott Rolen was a great catalyst for the 2010 Reds' offense. And there is no doubt that Joey Votto is the greatest offensive force on this team, and one of the great offensive talents in all of MLB.

Then you have a guy like Ryan Hanigan, who puts up solid (for a catcher) but unspectacular offensive numbers. Take heed when he produces, though, as the Reds are (all records for 2010 and 2011 combined):

9-0 when he homers
37-8 when he scores a run
25-9 in his multi-hit games
17-1 in his multi-RBI games

To some extent, there's an obvious explanation. If a bottom-of-the-order guy is racking up hits and run production, it's often because the game is a blowout. But that explanation only takes you so far, and doesn't fully account for the records above.

Here are some other fairly interesting Reds situational records (retrieved from baseball-reference):

24-4 in 2010/11 when Rolen has multiple RBIs
56-23 in 2010/11 when Rolen scores a run
13-4 in 2011 when Stubbs scores multiple runs
13-4 in 2011 when BP has multiple RBIs
8-0 in 2011 when Bruce steals a base

I find these splits (generally) to be more informative than simply "records in starts" because those are meaningless in the abundant cases where that particular player did not contribute much/anything to the victory. Want a perfect example? The Reds are 44-36 this year in Janish's starts, and it's not like he's been a catalyst. As with any numbers, they have to be considered in context of other numbers as well as detailed observations of the games.

Reds 5, Nationals 4: The Most Dangerous Canadian

The Reds got back above .500 in style with their second walk-off win of the series and a sweep of Washington. Johnny Cueto is still stuck on 9 wins in spite of his 2.05 ERA, but only positive vibes surround this team right now on its current 4-game win streak.

1) Joey Votto. A home run to begin the Reds' scoring in the 1st, and another in the bottom of the 14th. Neither one cleared the wall by much, but they all count the same. Well, a solo shot doesn't count the same as a grand slam, but you get my meaning.

2) Yonder Alonso. The guy never gets to play, but he hits and hits and hits when he does. The pinch-hit tying shot in the bottom of the 9th was ridiculously clutch.

3) Jose Arredondo. Held the Nats scoreless for 3 straight extra innings of relief (11th-13th).

4) Johnny Cueto. Scattered 9 hits over 7 innings and recorded a career-high 11 strikeouts (previously mowed down 10 twice, both times in 2008). Walked only 1, which was a welcome sight after his control problems in Miami, although he also hit two batters, so maybe that's a reach.

Honorable mention: Ryan Hanigan (reached base 5 of 6 times), BP (another multi-hit day in the leadoff spot), Bill Bray (got the win with a scoreless 14th).

Red LOBster: Jay Bruce left a whopping 8 on in one game! We'll forgive him thanks to his homer in the 4th.

The men behind the win 8/19/11

Reds 11, Pirates 8.

This one was not pretty, but it had a few worthy heroes.

1) Ryan Hanigan. Continued his hot streak with the bat...now 8 for his last 12 with 8 RBI. Hit a solo shot to give the Reds a 3-2 lead, then tacked on insurance runs with a 2-run single in the top of the 9th that provided the final score. Also tagged two guys out at home in crucial situations, and helped Bailey work out of a couple tough jams.

2) Drew Stubbs. What? Yes he only went 1 for 5 at the plate, left a team-leading 5 on base, struck out twice and grounded into a double play. BUT he had a huge catch to end the 4th, preserving a 2-2 tie, and then topped that by initiating a double play to end the 8th, keeping the 8-8 tie intact.

3) Brandon Phillips. He might not be the prototypical lead-off guy, especially with no base-stealing ability (where did that go?) but he sure has done his job in the first two games back in that spot (first time in 2011). 6 for 9 with 5 RBI and a walk in the 2 games. A 3-run bomb in the 5th that sure seemed like the nail in the coffin at that juncture.

4) Francisco Cordero. Eight different pitchers took the mound for the Reds, and only two kept a clean slate (both in terms of runs charged and inherited runners scored). One was Chapman, who only had to work 1/3 of an inning. The other was Cordero, who ended the Pirates' streak of scoring in 5 straight innings by retiring Brandon Wood (previously 2 for 3 with 3 RBI), Ronny Cedeno (previously 2 for 4) and Xavier Paul (previously 1 for 1).

The men behind the win 7/17/11

1) Homer Bailey. He had some really nice starts earlier this season before the injury, but this is the best and most important to date. Only 6 baserunners in 7.1 IP. Only one mistake pitch, to Berkman for the solo HR. Struggled a couple times with control and wasn't really hitting his spots but the bite on his slider was sufficient that he didn't need pinpoint accuracy.

2) Zack Cozart. Hit his first MLB home run to add a vital insurance run and continues to impress, with at least one hit in every game played so far. Why EVER play Renteria?

3) Miguel Cairo. Whenever you need him, he's there for a spark. A triple?!

4) Ryan Hanigan. It was ugly, but unlike Gomes/Bruce/Stubbs/Phillips/Rolen/Lewis/etc you can count on him to put the ball in play with a man on third.

Huge series win. The Reds will still be 3.0 back of St. Louis and Pittsburgh, and likely 3.5 back of Milwaukee. But we're very much in the race and now have an opportunity to take ground from Pittsburgh. Cueto pitches in the finale Wednesday. Willis/McDonald (toss-up) Monday and Leake/Morton (likely loss) Tuesday.

The men behind the win 6/29/11

1) Ryan Hanigan. 3-run jack was the biggest hit by him this season.

2) Edinson Volquez. He had an amazing start going, and in the end it was only a quality start. But for him, and for the Reds today, it was good enough.

3) Francisco Cordero. First save opportunity in a while, and he converted.

4) Fred Lewis. A big two-out RBI which proved the deciding run.