The top 8 Reds right fielders since 1900

Since I already went through this exercise with the shortstop position in my last post, in honor of Zack Cozart, I figured I'd do the same positional rundown for Jay Bruce.

At first glance, it might seem like RF has not been a particularly productive position in Cincinnati.  If you go to baseball-reference.com and enter a query stipulating that the players must have spent at least 50% of their time at a given position, and earned at least 30 WAR, you get the list below: 

C - Bench and Lombardi
1B - Perez, Votto, Klu, McCormick
2B - Morgan (plus BP and Frey have accumulated 29 WAR each)
3B - Groh
SS - Larkin and Concepcion
LF - Foster
CF - Pinson, Roush, and Davis
RF - no one

But this leaves out two ENORMOUS names in Reds history - Pete Rose (#1 all-time in Reds WAR with 77.7) and Frank Robinson (#4 all-time, with 63.8).  Both of them switched positions frequently during their careers, so they aren't really "attached" to a given position.  I think the most fair thing to do is to include them in this discussion, but only count the seasons when they played most of the time in RF.

Wins Above Replacement

1) Frank Robinson - 29.4 total, earned during 1961, 1962, 1964 and 1965 (his seasons predominantly in RF with Reds)

2) Ken Griffey, Sr. - 25.3 (mostly during his first stint with the team from 1973 to 1981)

3) Pete Rose - 22 total, earned during 1968-1971 (his seasons in RF with Reds)

4) Reggie Sanders - 21.4 (1991-1998)

5) Ival Goodman - 21.4 (1935-1942)

6) Curt Walker - 18.8 (1924-1930)

7) Jay Bruce - 16.1 (2008-2016)

8) Wally Post - 15.8 (during two stints in the '50s and '60s)


Conclusion:

Griffey Sr. is the best among the full-time right fielders, but Robinson and Rose put up big numbers in only four years.

Bruce fits nicely into the next tier, which are hard to really separate.  Sanders, Goodman, and Post especially are well-respected in Reds history, and I believe Bruce deserves a place in the Reds Hall as well.  I'm almost 100% certain he'll make it.

Unlike at the shortstop position, where Cozart simply hasn't had enough time to accumulate WAR, Bruce has actually played with the Reds as long (or longer) as anyone else on the list.  His counting stats are impressive, but it's his lack of ability to get on base (career OBP .319) and his defensive deterioration that have held down his WAR.  Nevertheless, he is an all-time Red.  Given more time, he probably would've gotten very close to Bench for most HRs (he had 233, Bench had 389).  And he was one of the most likeable Reds in recent memory as well.  So long, Jay.  

Most career WAR among Cincinnati Reds position players

These stats, as usual, have been collected from baseball-reference. Only seasons with the Reds are included.

1) Pete Rose - 74.6 wins above replacement in 19 seasons
2) Johnny Bench - 71.3 in 17 seasons
3) Barry Larkin - 68.9 in 19 seasons
4) Frank Robinson - 61.5 in 10 seasons
5) Joe Morgan - 61.3 in 8 seasons
6) Vada Pinson - 45.1 in 11 seasons
7) Tony Perez - 43.8 in 16 seasons
8) Edd Roush - 41.1 in 12 seasons
9) Heinie Groh - 38.7 in 9 seasons
10) George Foster - 38.1 in 11 seasons

11) Dave Concepcion - 33.6 in 19 seasons
12) Lonny Frey - 30.4 in 7 seasons
13) Ted Kluszewski - 29.7 in 11 seasons
14) Eric Davis - 29.4 in 9 seasons
15) Frank McCormick - 29.0 in 10 seasons
16) Ernie Lombardi - 27.1 in 10 seasons
17) Ken Griffey Sr. - 23.7 in 12 seasons
18) Adam Dunn - 22.2 in 8 seasons
19) Reggie Sanders - 21.6 in 8 seasons
20) Ival Goodman - 21.3 in 8 seasons

There you have it - 20 Reds position players with 20+ accumulated WAR. Soon to break on to this list (and hopefully sticking around in Cincinnati to reach the top ten) is Joey Votto (19.8 WAR). Rose, Bench and Larkin make a pretty awesome top 3 - clearly the kings of combined success and longevity in the Queen City. Then you have Robinson and Morgan, who dominate this list on a WAR-per-season basis and would easily be #1 and 2 if they'd spent their whole careers in Cincinnati.

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds right fielders

The last of positions 2 through 9...leaving only the pitching seasons to analyze next. The glory decade for right field was most definitely the 1960s.

1) Frank Robinson, 1962. Like Barry Larkin's 1996 season, his post-MVP year was better. This season ranks first among all Red RF seasons in WAR (8.5), runs (led the league), doubles (led the league), OPS (led the league) and slugging (led the league). Second in HR, BA and OBP.

2) Frank Robinson, 1961. His NL MVP season. 7.6 WAR, led the league in slugging and OPS. Both stats rank second to his 1962 season.

3) Pete Rose, 1969. 6.9 WAR. First among all Red RF seasons in batting average, hits and OBP. Led the league in runs scored and batting average. Won a Gold Glove.

The best of the rest:
4) Reggie Sanders, 1995. 6.7 WAR. Finished sixth in MVP voting.
5) Frank Robinson, 1964. 7.6 WAR. 4th in MVP voting.
6) Dave Parker, 1985. 2nd in MVP voting. Led the league in doubles and RBI.
7) Wally Post, 1955. 5.3 WAR. First among Red RF seasons in HR.
8) Pete Rose, 1970. Won a Gold Glove, finished 7th in MVP voting.
9) Babe Herman, 1932. 5.5 WAR. Led the league in triples.
10) Ken Griffey, 1976. Batted .336 for the World Series champs.

Others worth mentioning:
Harry Heilmann, 1930
Pete Rose, 1968
Ival Goodman, 1938 and 1939
Frank Robinson, 1965
Sam Crawford, 1901 and 1902

Jay Bruce's Walkoff - Not Clutch?

The funny thing about walkoff homers is they aren't always (mathematically, anyway) all that "clutch." Before I get into this discussion, two disclaimers.

1 - Jay Bruce is a great talent and (barring something unexpected) worth every bit of his contract.

2 - Bruce has had some of the most memorable moments at bat and in the field during his time in Cincinnati.

But didn't last night's home run feel a little anti-climactic? Certainly not worthy of the same level of revelry afforded to walkoffs past, let alone division-clinching walkoffs.

There are three main reasons that some (or at least I) felt this way last night.

1 (the obvious) - the Reds aren't in any kind of race, except to finish at/above .500 (which would be really nice)

2 (also obvious) - after Cordero's blown save (first since the All Star Break) it felt like the Reds should have had the game wrapped up already

3 (less obvious) - the situation was not all that dire in terms of win probability

Just a reminder...each team can have anywhere between a 0 and 1 (or 0 and 100 in percentage terms) chance of winning at any moment in the game. Because the Reds were tied and Bruce was batting in the home half of the 11th, with nobody out, and Votto already on second base, they already had an 81% chance of winning.

There were all sorts of ways for them to deal the finishing blow. While it was not an absolute guarantee (especially for the 2011 edition of the Cincinnati Reds) any fan watching was fully expecting a Reds victory after a lead-off double. All this being said, it was pretty darn exciting to defeat the hated Cubs with a bullpen-seeking missile.

I took a look at the 68 total walkoff homers in MLB during 2011. Among them, Bruce's had the third-lowest Win Probability Added (0.19). The only two lower came with the bases loaded and 1 out, meaning there was an even higher expectation of victory already (83%, so the homers resulted in 0.17 WPA).

- You may recall that Ramon Hernandez's Opening Day blast and Brandon Phillips' bomb against the Cardinals were both very clutch. In fact, they're both among the MLB top 3 for walkoff homer WPA this season, with a value of 0.91.

- This was Bruce's third career walkoff home run, and he is now the active career leader over Votto (2) and Stubbs (2)

- Tony Perez (10) has the most all-time of any Red, followed by Adam Dunn (7) and Frank Robinson (6)

Top seasons of Cincinnati Reds first basemen

Continuing up the line from catcher, here are what I consider to be the top seasons (taking mostly offense only into consideration, except the inclusion of defense in overall WAR or winning a Gold Glove). The cutoffs: at least 120 games played in that season, and at least 50% of those at first base. For each, I provide a few of the most impressive statistics (all from baseball-reference of course).

1) Ted Kluszewski, 1954. NL-leading 49 homers (most all-time by a Red 1B). NL-leading 141 RBI (most all-time by a Red 1B). OPS of 1.049 (highest ever by a Red 1B). Absurd WAR of 8.1. Lost out on the MVP award to Willie Mays.

2) Joey Votto, 2010. Led the NL in OBP and SLG (so, obviously, OPS as well). Won the MVP award.

3) Frank McCormick, 1939. Led the league in hits and RBI. Only finished 4th in MVP voting, but would go on to win it in 1940.

The rest of the top ten:
4) Kluszewski, 1955 - led the league in hits
5) McCormick, 1940 - won the MVP, posted 6.0 WAR
6) Jake Daubert, 1922 - led the league in triples, second among Red 1B in RS and BA
7) Frank Robinson, 1959 (one of his non-outfield seasons)
8) Sean Casey, 1999
9) Kluszewski, 1953
10) Votto, 2011 - already 6.5 WAR, most walks ever by a Red

Reds with 4+ RBI

Jay Bruce's 4 RBI game was the 9th of his career and 12th by a Red this season.

The all-time Reds leaders in games with 4+ RBI:

Bench 51 (including 7 three times, 6 twice, and 5 eight times)

Foster 34

Perez 31

Robinson 28 (54 for his whole career)

Dunn, McCormick 25

Kluszewski 24

Parker, Davis 23 (Parker had 50 in his career)

Griffey 22 (he had 45 with Seattle for a ridiculous total of 67)

The current Red with the most is Votto (14)

How clutch was that home run?

Since 1950 (as far back as baseball-reference's play index will go), the Reds have only had seven home runs that met all of the following conditions:

- walk-off winner
- 2 outs
- behind at the time
- tying run not even in scoring position, meaning extra bases (or relying on another hit from the next guy) were required to keep the game alive

They are:
Wally Post in 1954 (3-run homer, down 2 against Chicago)
Roy McMillan in 1957 (2-run homer, down 1 against St. Louis - identical in many respects to BP's)
Hal King in 1973 (3-run homer, down 2 against Los Angeles)
Tony Perez in 1974 (2-run homer, down 1 against San Francisco)
Adam Dunn in 2006 (grand slam, down 3 against Cleveland)
Ramon Hernandez in 2011 (3-run homer, down 2 against Milwaukee)
Brandon Phillips in 2011 (2-run homer, down 1 against St. Louis)

More trivia on the event:

- It was Brandon's second walk-off home run of his career and first with the Reds, and third walk-off hit of any kind as a Red.

- Votto and Bruce are the co-leaders on the current roster for walk-off hits as Reds, with 4 each. Two by Bruce and one by Votto were home runs.

- Tony Perez is the all-time Reds leader in walk-off hits with 19. Frank Robinson had 14.

- Perez also leads the Reds in walk-off homers with 10. Adam Dunn had 7.

Cincinnati Reds All-Star Game History

The Reds were abysmal last night in the All-Star Game, going 0 for 6 with 4 strikeouts, plus an error by Jay Bruce. Here are the highlights and lowlights in Reds' ASG history.


Best combined hitting:


1) 1976. 7 for 14, 3 runs, 4 RBI, 1 HR. Bench, Concepcion, Foster, Griffey, Perez, Morgan and Rose. Foster's 3-run HR was the highlight.


2) 1956. 6 for 15, 3 runs, 2 RBI. Bailey, Kluszewski, Bell, Robinson, McMillan, Temple. Big Klu was 2 for 2.


3) 1954. 3 for 5, 3 runs, 5 RBI, 2 HR from only two players - Bell and Kluszewski.


4) 1980. 3 for 6, 3 runs, 1 RBI, 1 HR. Bench, Concepcion, Knight, and Griffey - who had the HR.


5) 1975. 5 for 15, 2 RBI. Bench, Morgan, Rose, Concepcion, Perez.


Honorable mention to 1967...only 1 for 4, but the hit was a game-winning HR by Perez in the 15th inning.




Best pitching:


1) 1940. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Derringer (got the win) and Walters.


2) 1990. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Armstrong, Dibble and Myers.


3) 1942. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Vander Meer and Walters.


4) 1938. 3 IP, 0 runs allowed by Vander Meer, who also got the win.


5) 1982. 2.1 IP, 0 runs allowed. Soto and Hume, who recorded a save.








Worst all-around:


1) 1995. 0 for 6 with 2 strikeouts at the plate. 2 runs allowed in 2 innings pitched.


2) 1965. 0 for 3 at the plate. 5 ER in 1.2 IP by Jim Maloney.


3) 2011. 0 for 6 with 4 strikeouts.


4) 1977. 2 for 12 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR. Five all-world guys should've done better with all those at-bats. And Seaver gave up 3 runs in 2 IP.


5) 1981. 0 for 5. Solo HR allowed in 1 IP.


Honorable mention to 1970 at Riverfront...if it weren't for Rose scoring the winning run, the Reds going 1 for 9 in the game would've been an embarrassment.




Best individual hitters, min. 10 AB:


1) Johnny Bench. 10 for 28


2) Ted Kluszewski. 7 for 14


3) Frank Robinson. 5 for 12






Worst individual hitters, min. 10 AB:


1) Barry Larkin. 2 for 18


2) Pete Rose. 6 for 27.


3) Joe Morgan. 6 for 24.