Cincinnati Reds: May 2012 Summary

The Reds went 17-11 in May to surge into first place in the NL Central, holding a lead of 1.5 games over the St. Louis Cardinals entering play June 1st.

Cincinnati won 5 series, split 3 and lost 2.


Home: 8-4
Road: 9-7
vs Central: 6-5
vs East: 7-4
vs West: 2-1
vs AL: 2-1

Overall offensive trends: Average stable at an ugly number (.240 April, .242 May).  OBP the same story: .306 in both months.  The only improvement was in power - slugging rose from .387 to .421, boosting the Reds' OPS+ from 95 to 98.  Bottom line: the Reds can win with this offense, but only if the pitching remains other-worldly.  They need to get on base more to help win this division.


Overall pitching trends: The starters posted almost identical, solid-but-not-spectacular numbers in May (3.86 ERA) relative to April (3.89).  The bullpen went from great to insanely great, lowering its ERA from 2.81 to 2.02 and its WHIP from 1.25 to 1.03.  All these numbers are good enough to make the playoffs.  Again, the question is offense.


Individual offensive trends:
UP significantly (40 or more OPS+ points): Votto, Heisey, Hanigan
DOWN significantly: Bruce, Cozart, Mesoraco
NOT MUCH CHANGE (GOOD): Phillips
NOT MUCH CHANGE (BAD): Stubbs


Individual pitching trends:
UP significantly: Latos, Bailey, Leake, Simon, LeCure, Marshall
DOWN significantly: Cueto, Arroyo, Ondrusek
NOT MUCH CHANGE (GOOD): Chapman, Arredondo

And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of May.

RANDY HITTER: 

Joey Votto - .355, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 23 walks

Honorable mention: Ryan Hanigan

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: 

Chris Heisey (raised his OPS+ by 46 points)

RANDY STARTER: 

Mat Latos (3-0, 3.26, and a 1.12 WHIP)

Honorable mention: Homer Bailey

RANDY MOST IMPROVED PITCHER: 

Mike Leake (his ERA was 2.1 runs lower)

RANDY RELIEVER: 

Aroldis Chapman (still sporting a 0.00 ERA, struck out 23 batters in May)

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: 

Sean Marshall (his ERA was 2.4 runs lower)

RANDY NEWBIE: 
JJ Hoover (0.90 ERA in 10 IP, 10 K) - yes he pitched in April, but May was his first full month with the Reds.

A few more stats on the Reds' April Offense

Win Probability Added (a value of 1.0 means, essentially, this player has contributed one win to the team):
Best:
Votto 1.2 
Bruce: 0.6 
Cozart 0.5


Worst:
Stubbs -0.6
Harris -0.6
Rolen - 0.4

For the following two metrics, I compared the entire year of 2011 to April 2012 numbers. 


Line-drive percentage (18% is league average)


Improved significantly from 2011:
Bruce - 23 (18 last year)
Rolen - 20 (17)
Cozart - 19 (13)


Declined significantly from 2011:
Phillips - 17 (21 last year)
Stubbs - 16 (20)
Heisey - 15 (20)


The best on the team for this stat is, of course, Joey Votto, checking in at 26% for both years.


Strike-out rate (20% is league average)

Improved significantly from 2011:
Stubbs - 26 (30 last year)
Heisey - 20 (25)
Mesoraco - 8 (19)


Declined significantly from 2011:
Rolen - 20 (13)

You might be surprised to hear that Votto strikes out more than the league average, at 24%.

Positional and batting order OPS for 2011

1) Fielding positions where the Reds are above MLB average for OPS: C, 1B, 2B, CF, RF, PH

Note: The overall number for CF is skewed upward by the select few games where Heisey started and blasted some home runs. Stubbs is actually below league average for the position (.714, compared to .742)

2) Fielding positions where the Reds are below MLB average for OPS: SS, 3B, LF

Note: All of these should come as little surprise, but thanks to Cairo at third offsetting Rolen's number, the Reds were almost dead-even with league average at the position (.691). Gomes' OPS in left was significantly better than Lewis or Heisey.

3) Batting order positions where the Reds are above MLB average for OPS: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th

Note: Not only has Bruce been much better than average when batting 5th, but Gomes was above average too at .803.

4) Batting order positions where the Reds are below MLB average for OPS: 1st, 4th, 6th

Note: Stubbs' .715 is only a hair lower than league average when batting leadoff. Bruce, BP and Rolen have all failed to produce up to league average when batting cleanup, although Rolen was by far the worst with an OPS of .551. One more bizarre Gomes note...his .876 OPS in the 6th spot is better than anyone else on the team with significant time there.

MLB rankings of these stats

C - 9th
1B - 4th
2B - 10th
3B - 17th
SS - 24th
LF - 21st
CF - 11th
RF - 7th
P - 6th
DH - 9th
PH - 2nd

Leadoff - 15th
2 - 12th
3 - 2nd
Cleanup - 26th
5 - 8th
6 - 19th
7 - 10th
8 - 6th

All stats from baseball-reference

The men behind the win 8/2/11

The series opener against Houston was a terrible downer, but all is not lost. With a win tomorrow (in a fairly favorable pitching matchup and an offense that should ALWAYS be better than Houston's) the Reds can still finish the three game set a step or two closer to some of the other Central competitors. Right now: 1 back of Pittsburgh, 4 behind St. Louis, 6.5 leeward of Milwaukee.

1) Homer Bailey. A lot of people love to rip this guy for his inconsistency but I always feel a million times better with him on the mound than some of the alternatives (Arroyo, Wood, Volquez and even Willis...who is consistent but never dominates like Homer did again tonight). He's got 8 of 12 quality starts this year, and this is the 5th time he's gone at least 7 innings (big after an extra inning debacle). His line: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K.

2) Edgar Renteria. The much-maligned Rent-a-wreck offered up a hugely clutch grand slam in the 5th...oddly the only inning with any scoring.

3) Chris Heisey. Started off the 5th with a double, only the second hit of the game for the Reds. 2 for 4 overall with a stolen base and a run scored.

4) Aroldis Chapman. Now eight straight appearances with no runs OR hits allowed, and his ERA is down to 3.73. During that span he has 15 strikeouts and 1 walk in 9.2 IP. WOW.

The men behind the win, 7/6/11

1) Aroldis Chapman - First career save, 1 IP, 2 K

2) Jay Bruce - 2B, HR, BB in 6 PAs. 2 R, 2 RBI

3) Jose Arredondo - 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 K

4) Chris Heisey- HR, 2 BB in 7 PAs. Set the tone for the game with his first-pitch blast.

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Fred Lewis, Sam LeCure, Nick Masset

Guys who let us down in spite of the win...

1) Bill Bray. In a rarity, he let both inherited runners score. He's only allowed that to happen 7 of 28 times this season (25%) and in fact is the only guy on the team below league average (30%) for that stat in both 2010 and 2011.

2) The SS position. No surprise here. Renteria and Janish a combined 1 for 7 with 2 strikeouts and 5 left on base.

3) Bronson Arroyo. What could have been one of his finer starts of the year turned into yet another non-quality start (he now has only 8 in 18 games this year).

Fred Lewis for leadoff

Among our current choices, I don't really feel there's a good argument for anyone else.

Consider this:

If you look at the career stats of EVERY single position player on the team, there are only TWO who have higher career OBP leading off innings than their overall career OBP. Most are significantly worse starting things off, including Votto.

The two exceptions are:

Scott Rolen (only .002 higher, and not exactly someone you want leading off)

and

Fred Lewis (.349 overall, .371 leading off innings)

The trend has continued this season, albeit in a small sample size so far. He's got a .391 OBP in 23 such plate appearances.

Heisey: .178 (45 PA)
Stubbs: .286 (147 PA)

While I never want to see him batting 1st (or really in the lineup at all) against lefties, he should be seeing the majority of the time at leadoff unless we make a roster change or Stubbs somehow makes a massive turnaround.

Leadoff batters typically get 1/3 (or more) of their plate appearances leading off innings, while batters in other positions in the order only about 20-25%.

RBI tandems

Through the Reds' 5-0 win over Tampa, taking them to 7-0 all-time against the Rays...

Our top run producers and the teammates they've driven in most frequently:

Votto (49 total)
Stubbs 14 times
BP 11
Himself 11
Heisey 4
Janish 3
Bruce, Renteria, Cairo, Bailey, Arroyo, Volquez 1

Bruce (49 total)
Himself 17 times
Votto 11
Stubbs 8
Rolen 5
BP 4
Cairo 2
Renteria, Heisey 1

Phillips (41 total)
Stubbs 10 times
Himself 6
Renteria 6
Janish, Votto 4
Cairo, Hernandez 2
Rolen, Wood, Lewis, Bruce, Leake, Cueto, Heisey 1

Rolen (32 total)
BP 14 times
Votto 8
Himself 4
Stubbs 3
Bruce, Cairo, Renteria 1

Stubbs (32 total)
Himself 11 times
Hanigan 5
Janish 3
Heisey, Renteria, Leake 2
Gomes, Hermida, Lewis, Cairo, Valaika, Bruce, Hernandez 1

Gomes (31 total)
Himself 11 times
BP 5
Rolen 4
Votto, Bruce 3
Stubbs 2
Hanigan, Heisey, Cairo 1

Heisey (29 total)
Himself 8 times
Janish, Hanigan 5
Votto 3
BP, Hernandez, Rolen 2
Cairo, Bruce 1