The story behind BP's production is more than just opportunity

Many would assert, with some degree of truth, that Brandon Phillips leads the National League in RBI (with 42 entering play on Sunday 5/26) because of increased opportunities.  Votto and Choo have done such an incredible job getting on base (ranking 1st and 3rd in all of MLB for that category so far), that Brandon has had a wealth of chances.

Most runners on base for 2013 National League batters:
1) Brandon Phillips - 170
2) Jay Bruce - 159
3) Hunter Pence - 150
4) Yonder Alonso - 145
5) Zack Cozart - 141

This list tells a couple different stories.  First off, the Reds' offense has been generating a ton of opportunities.  To have 3 of the top 5 in this category is pretty absurd.  However, production is much more than opportunity...because as we all know, the three Reds on this list have had very different levels of success when they've batted with runners on.

Among the 125 batters in MLB who have had at least 100 runners on this season, Brandon ranks 13th in percentage of those runners driven in (20%).  Bruce rates a respectable 15.72%, good for 57th on the list.  Cozart is near the bottom - 109th at only 10.64% of runners driven in.  If you haven't considered this particular statistic before, I would summarize it as follows:

< 9% = terrible
9-11% = poor
12-14% = mediocre
15-17% = good
18-20% = excellent
>20% = outstanding

For his career, Phillips has been a good (but usually not great) producer with runners on.  Here are the percentages, rounded off to the nearest whole numbers:

2006 - 15%
2007 - 14%
2008 - 15%
2009 - 17%
2010 - 12%
2011 - 16%
2012 - 15%
2013 - 20%

Two years stand out - 2013 for success, and 2010 for lack thereof.  The biggest thing that can help you succeed in these situations is extra-base hits.  According to Fangraphs numbers, BP's 2010 isolated slugging percentage was only .155 (third-worst of his Reds career), while he's at .189 this season (second-best).  

At his current pace, Brandon would accumulate 40 doubles (a career high) and 26 homers (second only to his breakout 2007 season).  

Will he sustain this production level?  Maybe not.  But his improved approach and skill at the plate will certainly give him a good chance.  A number of his XBH this season have punctuated lengthy at-bats where he fouled off pitches until he got one to deliver into the gap (or the seats). While his overall pitches seen per plate appearance stat (about 3.7) has not changed this year, he makes the adjustments necessary in big situations, and quite visibly relishes the role of dependable RBI man.

Here's hoping that Brandon keeps it going, because he's on pace for some history.  Only Joe Morgan has ever driven in 100 runs in a season as a Reds second baseman, and he did it just once, with 111 in 1976.  BP is on pace for 138 RBI - that would be the 5th highest single-season total ever by any second baseman in major league baseball.

Statistics from baseballmusings.com, fangraphs.com, mlb.com and espn.com

Choo changing the entire Reds offense

In 2012, the Cincinnati Reds offense struggled in one very major way.  Only Votto (.474), Hanigan (.365) and Ludwick (.346) got on base consistently.  Here were their OBP ranks by position in MLB:

C - .333 (10th)
1B - .423 (1st)
2B - .306 (22nd)
3B - .304 (23rd)
SS - .284 (25th)
LF - .339 (10th)
CF - .282 (30th)
RF - .320 (21st)
 
Note: Reds pitchers were also above average with a .176 OBP (9th in MLB) but the 9th spot in the order isn't something you rely on for production on a game-to-game basis.

And here are their rankings through 40 games in 2013:

C - .290 (21st)
1B - .455 (1st) - leading all other teams by 37 points
2B - .333 (11th)
3B - .314 (19th)
SS - .250 (28th)
LF - .302 (21st)
CF - .468 (1st) - leading all other teams by 73 points
RF - .303 (19th)

As you can see, the only huge change was in CF.  Votto's OBP is actually lower this year than last, but the team number for first base has improved as a result of him having 100% of the playing time so far this year.  

Choo is almost single-handedly responsible for the team OBP jumping from an abysmal .315 last year (22nd in the league) to .335 in 2013, which now ranks third in baseball.  Even with Cozart's weak bat behind him, Choo is tied for the MLB lead in runs scored (33).  Just imagine the numbers he might be putting up with Ludwick healthy and BP back in the 2-hole...