Series finale problems not (completely) bullpen's fault

For the Cincinnati Reds, recent series finales have not been an enjoyable experience.  

For the season, the Reds are 11-11 in the final game of a series (even though their record in those series as a whole is 13-9).  However, they have now lost 5 straight finales, and 7 of the last 9.

Of those 7 losses, 6 were in brutal fashion - they blew a lead of at least 2 runs in each, and lost in the final at-bat in 5 of those 6 (including 4 extra-inning defeats).

It's easy to blame the bullpen, because their recent ineptitude has certainly been a large part of the problem.  With a June ERA of 6.69, they are more than partially responsible for the Reds' 0-4 record in series-finishing games this month.

The narrative in the six crushing finale defeats, all involving significant blown leads and occurring since mid-May, has been as follows:

5/19 at Philadelphia (lost 3-2): Chapman blew it in the 9th, giving up back-to-back homers.

5/26 vs. Chicago (lost 5-4 in 10 innings): Ondrusek melted down to blow the lead, and Hoover lost it in extras.

6/1 at Pittsburgh (lost 5-4 in 11 innings): Broxton had another Pittsburgh disaster to blow the lead, and then Simon couldn't hold on in extras.

6/5 vs. Colorado (lost 12-4): After Villarreal's poor start, the Reds still had a chance - that is, until Simon and Parra yielded 3 runs apiece to put it out of reach.

6/9 vs. St. Louis (lost 11-4 in 10 innings): LeCure blew the lead in the 7th, and Hoover imploded in the 10th.

6/13 at Chicago (lost 6-5 in 14 innings): LeCure blew the lead in the 8th, and Broxton lost it in the 14th.

If the narratives above are in line with your thinking, you would have some strong statistical backing.  After all, the bullpen ERA in the six games listed above was a hideous 8.68 (27 total earned runs in 28 innings pitched).

However, I would submit that the offense deserves equal blame.  To support my case, let me point out the fact that the Reds went scoreless from the time of their biggest lead until the end of the game in all six of the games in question.  

Specifically, here is what the offense managed in each case after racing out to a lead:

5/19 at Philadelphia - 3 straight scoreless innings after leading 2-0
5/26 vs. Chicago - 6 straight scoreless innings after leading 4-0
6/1 at Pittsburgh - 10 straight scoreless innings after leading 4-0
6/5 vs. Colorado - 8 straight scoreless innings after leading 4-1
6/9 vs. St. Louis - 5 straight scoreless innings after leading 4-2
6/13 at Chicago - 8 straight scoreless innings after leading 5-3

If the offense goes into such a prolonged slumber (as if to say, "we've done our job, game over") it puts immense pressure on the pitching staff.  40 straight combined scoreless innings, in my opinion, are of equal consequence relative to the bullpen's failures. 

You might notice that I'm leaving criticism of managerial decisions out of this equation.  That is a deliberate decision on my part because it is impossible to know what would have happened in an alternative universe.  I am of the opinion that Dusty deserves some blame for the way a few games have gone this season, but because there is no way to statistically judge his influence, I choose to keep this discussion simpler: is the hitting or the pitching to blame?

To summarize, I would assign blame as follows:

5/19 at Philadelphia - Chapman (just had a poor game, which is bound to happen now and then)

5/26 vs. Chicago - The offense.  All they had to do was score 1 additional run against the Cubs pen to avoid extras.

6/1 at Pittsburgh - The offense.  10 straight scoreless innings.

6/5 vs. Colorado - The starting pitching.  Forced into action because of Cueto's second injury of the year, Pedro Villarreal never stood much of a chance against the Rockies' powerful lineup.

6/9 vs. St. Louis - The offense and the bullpen are equally to blame for this one.  I'll break my own rule and mention Dusty here too, because excessive (and poorly-executed) bunting played a big role in the Reds not securing this victory.

6/13 at Chicago - The offense.  8 straight scoreless innings.  Even 1 run through those first 7 would've been enough to win it.

At the moment, this is a somewhat alarming trend.  And if the Reds had gone 3-3 in these games - you're bound to lose a few painful ones during a 162-game season, but not THIS many - they would be only a half game behind St. Louis instead of 3.5.  

Three of the losses (at Philadelphia, vs. Colorado, vs. St. Louis) were in deciding games and the other three prevented the Reds from completing a sweep. 

Here's hoping the Reds can turn around their finale fortunes, starting this Sunday at GABP against Milwaukee.

Choo changing the entire Reds offense

In 2012, the Cincinnati Reds offense struggled in one very major way.  Only Votto (.474), Hanigan (.365) and Ludwick (.346) got on base consistently.  Here were their OBP ranks by position in MLB:

C - .333 (10th)
1B - .423 (1st)
2B - .306 (22nd)
3B - .304 (23rd)
SS - .284 (25th)
LF - .339 (10th)
CF - .282 (30th)
RF - .320 (21st)
 
Note: Reds pitchers were also above average with a .176 OBP (9th in MLB) but the 9th spot in the order isn't something you rely on for production on a game-to-game basis.

And here are their rankings through 40 games in 2013:

C - .290 (21st)
1B - .455 (1st) - leading all other teams by 37 points
2B - .333 (11th)
3B - .314 (19th)
SS - .250 (28th)
LF - .302 (21st)
CF - .468 (1st) - leading all other teams by 73 points
RF - .303 (19th)

As you can see, the only huge change was in CF.  Votto's OBP is actually lower this year than last, but the team number for first base has improved as a result of him having 100% of the playing time so far this year.  

Choo is almost single-handedly responsible for the team OBP jumping from an abysmal .315 last year (22nd in the league) to .335 in 2013, which now ranks third in baseball.  Even with Cozart's weak bat behind him, Choo is tied for the MLB lead in runs scored (33).  Just imagine the numbers he might be putting up with Ludwick healthy and BP back in the 2-hole...