Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Projecting the final two months

When I projected based on current home/road records and how many remaining games of those types, then projected based on current .500+/under .500 records and how many remaining games of those types, and averaged the projections, this was the result for the final standings.

Milwaukee: 89 wins
St. Louis: 84 wins
Pittsburgh: 82.5 wins
Cincinnati: 81.5 wins

In other words, not too much different from now. By the end of the season (assuming the same teams stay above and below .500) the teams will have played the following number of games against teams with winning records:

Milwaukee: 76
St. Louis: 75
Pittsburgh: 75
Cincinnati: 95

So really, the rest of the way isn't going to balance things out enough for us.

Most popular MLB franchises (by Facebook likes)

At the top of each game recap, MLB.com shows the number of Facebook likes recorded for both teams.

1 - of course the Yankees (4 million +)
2 - of course the Red Sox (3 million +)
3 - of course the Cubs (1 million +)
4 - thanks to the Series win, the Giants (also 1 million +)

Between 800,000 and 999,999: Philadelphia, Atlanta, St. Louis

600,000 to 799,999: LA Dodgers, Texas, Detroit, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota

400,000 to 599,999: Milwaukee, NY Mets, Cleveland, Cincinnati (16th with 429K), Seattle

300,000 to 399,999: Colorado, Houston, Tampa Bay, LA Angels, Toronto, San Diego

200,000 to 299,999: Baltimore, Oakland, Kansas City, Pittsburgh

100,000 to 199,999: Florida, Arizona, Washington

The men behind the win 7/31/11

Impressive 3 game sweep of the Giants complete. Too bad the Brewers have won 6 in a row to maintain their big division lead.

1) Johnny Cueto. The only pitcher on the team with any complete games this year got his third, and amazingly this is the first one in the win column. The previous two were 8-inning complete game losses (2-1 and 1-0 thanks to pathetic offense). Today's line: only 5 base-runners (1 by error) and 2 of them got erased by double plays. 6 strikeouts, 1 walk. And he continues to induce ground balls like never before. 11 of them today.

2) Joey Votto. Got the first RBI of the game, and then three more for good measure with his blast in the 7th. 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored as well.

3) Drew Stubbs. 4 for 5 (only one strikeout!) and set the table at the beginning (scored the first run), middle (scored the 5th run) and end (scored the 9th run) of the game.

4) Edgar Renteria. Followed Stubbs onto the paths with singles of his own a couple times, walked once, and scored all three times on base.

Honorable mention: Todd Frazier for his first career home run.

Good news, bad news

The sample: 96 division winners, 1995 through 2010. The Reds currently sit 6.5 games out and in fourth place with 1 game left in July.

Good news: 37 (39%) trailed as the calendar turned to August OR at a later date.

Bad news: Only 6 (6%) trailed by 6.5 or more on August 1st or later.

Good news: The 2007 Phillies were still 7 games behind on September 12th, and the 1995 Mariners were 13 out on August 2nd.

Bad news: No team has ever been in 4th place this late and recovered.

Good news: Three of the six teams trailing by this many games won the division without significant contributions from new acquisitions.

Bad news: Three (2010 Giants, 2009 Twins and to a lesser extent the 2000 A's) depended on extremely positive results from new players.

The men behind the win 7/30/11

It's not often that in a 7-2 win, you have trouble picking four guys who really played well. A couple are easy, but as a result of the offensive slumber after the first inning, the rest are not.

1) Mike Leake. 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K. His overall ERA might not be fantastic, and he may be a shirt thief, but he also has 13 of 18 quality starts.

2) BP. You can't underestimate the value of that early clutch hit to affect the mindset of the team. Overall got on base 3 of 4 PAs.

3) Bill Bray. Sure it was a 7-2 game, but the bases were also loaded with 1 out in the top of the 7th and he shut it down. Against Beltran and Sandoval no less.

4) Heisey. Put the nail in the coffin with his two-run single to make it 5-0 in the bottom of the 1st.

Red LOBster King of the Day: Jay Bruce...he did have 2 RBI but also 5 LOB

Monday, July 25, 2011

wRC+ by position among Central contenders

wRC+ (weighted runs created, adjusted for park and league). If you want to compare players across positions/years/other variables, this is better than OPS+.

For each position I'll list the top 3 in MLB, and the relevant players at each position (for instance, Doumit and Snyder are injured for the Pirates so I list McKenry, who gets most of the starts now)

Catcher
Top 3 - Napoli 151, McCann 144, Hernandez 134
Central - Hernandez 134, Molina 103, Lucroy 98, Hanigan 93, McKenry 66

First base
Top 3 - Cabrera 167, Gonzalez 163, Fielder 158
Central - Fielder 158, Votto 151, Pujols 140, Overbay 83

Second base
Top 3 - Pedroia 146, Utley 142, Zobrist 138
Central - Weeks 131, Walker 104, Phillips 103, Schumaker 95

Shortstop
Top 3 - Reyes 162, Peralta 148, Cabrera 135
Central - Theriot 82, Cedeno 76, Betancourt 71, Renteria 66, Janish 42

Third base
Top 3 - Youkilis 148, Rodriguez 136, Sandoval 130
Central - Freese 123, Cairo 107, Descalso 95, Rolen 81, Alvarez 67, McGehee 60, d'Arnaud 58

Left field
Top 3 - Braun 176, Holliday 164, Johnson 149
Central - Braun 176, Holliday 164, Presley 148, Heisey 107, Gomes 103, Tabata 102, Lewis 87

Center field
Top 3 - Kemp 170, Granderson 153, Ellsbury 149
Central - McCutchen 142, Morgan 131, Stubbs 110, Rasmus 109

Right field
Top 3 - Bautista 209, Berkman 169, Beltran 153
Central - Berkman 169, Bruce 126, Jay 125, Hart 123, Jones 102

I'd say the main takeaway point is that, while shortstop and third have been major issues, left field is where we lag farthest behind the competition because that's supposed to be a position of major production. At least at short everyone else blows too, and if Cozart can get healthy we'll have a better option (in his limited time his rating was 122). At third, Frazier has potential to help us out as well.

Sunday, July 24, 2011

The men behind the win 7/24/11

Finally, back-to-back wins for the first time since June 15th. Only 3 games back of the three-headed beast leading the Central.

1) Drew Stubbs obviously. Second career walkoff home run (also second career walkoff hit of any kind). Scored twice.

2) Aroldis Chapman. Huge performance to keep things tied.

3) Brandon Phillips. Early lead from his blast was nice, even if it didn't last.

4) Dontrelle Willis. All three of his outings have gone similarly...great innings, scary innings, all in all an okay start. He's not the potential ace he once was, but no one expects that anyway. If he can keep the team in the game the way he has so far, that's all we can ask.

The men behind the win 7/23/11

1) Edgar Renteria (?!) Yes the Rent-a-wreck was a one-man wrecking crew, with 3 RBIs including the go-ahead 2-run double in the 6th inning. Stop and ponder how many hyphens were used in that last sentence.

2) Homer Bailey. Sure he gave up a 2-run double to the pitcher and looked headed for disaster after 2 innings, but he recovered in ridiculous fashion to shut the Braves down through 6. Two straight very nice performances from Christian Bale. Other than Arroyo, the rotation is settling into a nice groove.

3) Brandon Phillips. Broke out of a 3 for 32 slump with 3 hits. 2 of them run-scoring doubles.

4) Todd Frazier. A guy I have scoffed at in the past, but with Cozart injured (horrible timing) hopefully he can produce more highlights like he did today with his near-grand slam.

Thank God for the 7th, because the 6th inning (after the Reds went up 4-2) looked like a classic 2011 Reds missed opportunity. 2nd and 3rd, nobody out, ZERO runs scored - thanks to Lewis, Gomes and Frazier.

Friday, July 22, 2011

Streaks of no streaks

Longest stretches in 162-game season era without the Reds posting back-to-back wins:

1) 33 games (4/29/01 - 6/4/01)
2) 31 games (three times - 8/29/93-10/3/93, 4/19/05-5/22/05, 7/25/08-8/28/08)
3) 29 games (twice - the current streak, and 7/3/09-8/4/09)

The most games the Reds won in any of those seasons was 78, in 2009.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

The men behind the win 7/20/11

1) Johnny Cueto. Another quality start and his ERA back under 2.00

1A) Chase d'Arnaud. Yes, this Pittsburgh Pirate helped us just as much as Cueto, with his two errors (both resulting in unearned runs) and his continued failure at the plate. Only 1 RBI in 89 ABs this year.

3) Jay Bruce. On base all 4 times, scored a run.

4) Logan Ondrusek. Came on with 2 on and 1 out in the 7th and held the 2-run lead. Then got McCutchen to lead off the 8th before exiting.

Red LOBster King of the Day: Ramon Hernandez. 5 LOB, 0 for 4, 2 GIDP. Not his best work

Wrong guys getting too many chances?

Players in the top 50 this year for total men on base during their plate appearances, with bad rates (less than 14%) of converting those chances into RBIs:

MLB rank of chances - Player - RBI%
16 - Jay Bruce - 13.43
17 - Carlos Santana - 11.65
18 - Omar Infante - 10.04
20 - Casey McGehee - 12.74
23 - Torii Hunter - 13.18
29 - Michael Cuddyer - 12.65
30 - Alcides Escobar - 11.07
37 - James Loney - 10.98
40 - Alexei Ramirez - 13.06
43 - Jayson Werth - 8.68
44 - Brennan Boesch - 13.69
49 - Carlos Pena - 12.97
50 - Dan Uggla - 8.40

For some players, failures in these situations are an anomaly, while some make a habit of it.

Unfortunately Jay Bruce falls into the latter category, as he was also in the top 50 in chances last year and had an even worse conversion rate (11.11%)

The 11 players in the top 120 for chances and falling below the 14% cutoff line in both 2010 and 2011:
Jay Bruce
Michael Cuddyer
Jayson Werth
Nick Markakis
Mark Reynolds
Colby Rasmus
Lyle Overbay
Alcides Escobar
Carlos Pena
Chone Figgins
Juan Pierre

Bruce, Cuddyer, Escobar and Pena were in the top 50 for chances each season and thus have thrown away massive amounts of scoring opportunities for their teams.

Source I used to collect the data:

<http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/RBIPCT.py?StartDate=03%2F30%2F2011&EndDate=07%2F02%2F2011&SortField=1.0*%28OnRBI.RBI-OnRBI.HRs%29%2FOnRBI.RunnersOn&SortDir=desc&MinPA=50

Monday, July 18, 2011

Updated pitching/hitting in wins and losses

The Reds have now lost 49 games.

In 24, it was entirely due to hitting. Meaning the pitching gave up 4 runs or fewer (thus below league average for R/G which is a little over 4) but the offense couldn't score 5 or more.

In 16, it was due to both. Scored 4 or fewer AND gave up 5 or more.

In only 9, it was due solely to pitching.

Even the wins have had a (slightly) greater basis in positive pitching results.
25 both pitching and hitting were good
12 only pitching
10 only hitting

Note: I adjusted runs scored and runs allowed for extra innings. If you lose 5-4 in 19 innings that's the offense's fault, not the pitching.

As another example of how the results in a select few explosive games skew our offensive totals...

We have 52 games with 4 or fewer runs, and 44 with 5 or more.

40 times we have scored 3 or fewer.

28 times we have scored 2 or fewer. St. Louis, with almost exactly the same total RS for the season, has only been held to 2 or fewer runs 18 times. They usually score in the 3-5 range, giving their pitchers a fighting chance.

Let's go streaking!

The Reds have gone the past 25 games without any back-to-back wins. The overall record in that time is 10-15.

This is the worst such stretch since the horrible July swoon of 2009. They went 6-23 over a 29-game period between winning streaks, and had losing streaks of 6 and 8 games.

Tonight's pitching matchup:

Dontrelle Willis (gets his second start)
vs.
Charlie Morton (gave us fits twice this year...but hasn't been pitching well his past three outings)

Pitchers due to improve

Using half a run as the cutoff skews things, such that the large list of "lucky" pitchers above is opposed by only two "unlucky" pitchers with respect to both xFIP and tERA:

Brandon Morrow
Zack Greinke

(both should be expected to get better results as the season progresses)

If you look at xFIP alone, you get a bigger list. Again, all these guys theoretically should do BETTER the rest of the season:

Mike Leake
David Price
Madison Bumgarner
Matt Garza
Ryan Dempster
Edwin Jackson
Derek Lowe
Yovani Gallardo
Felipe Paulino
Chris Narveson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Chris Volstad
Carlos Carrasco
Gavin Floyd
Max Scherzer
Ted Lilly
Brett Myers
Jake Westbrook
Fausto Carmona
Brandon Morrow
Zack Greinke

Three Reds (Volquez, Wood, and Arroyo) also have had unlucky ERAs but weren't on the main list because of their xFIPs weren't below 4.00

Pitchers due for correction

Many/most of you may be familiar with a couple of the recently-developed measures that are often used as alternatives to ERA. Among the best are xFIP and tERA. You can look up the full descriptions and formulas quite easily if you choose, but to briefly summarize...

xFIP is home-run rate-adjusted fielding independent pitching. It only considers home runs (adjusted to expected rate per fly ball), walks and strikeouts per inning pitched. After weights are assigned to each of these values and you add 3.10 it gives a number fairly comparable to ERA. It also correlates better with future ERA than anything else currently used (at least according to fangraphs - I haven't tested it but I trust them).

tERA is "true" earned runs allowed. It takes into account batted ball types, which can have a very significant effect as shown by the following numbers:

Batters hit about .725 and slug 1.000 on line drives.

Batters hit about .235 and slug .255 on ground balls.

Batters hit about .220 and slug .580 on fly balls.

Here is a list of pitchers who, thus far in 2011, have an ERA that is at least half a run lower than BOTH their xFIP and tERA. This means that due to a combination of defense and luck, their results have been appreciably better than they've truly pitched. Not to say they're going to fall off the table (after all, a lot of these guys are respected pitchers), but that the reasonable expectation is for most of these pitchers to finish the year with a higher ERA than they currently sport. This list only includes pitchers where at least one of the metrics was 4.00 or below.

Johnny Cueto - his current 2.01 ERA is very unlikely to be sustained, a reasonable expectation is for him to finish in the 2.50-3.00 range
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
Jered Weaver
Josh Beckett
Gio Gonzalez
Ryan Vogelsong
Jair Jurrjens
Dustin Moseley
Kyle Kendrick
Kyle Lohse
Jeff Karstens
Matt Harrison
Josh Collmeter
Alexi Ogando
Trevor Cahill
Mark Buehrle
Paul Maholm
Freddy Garcia
Tyler Chatwood
Bruce Chen

None of Philadelphia's top three (Halladay, Hamels, Lee) appear on this list. Their minuscule ERAs are backed up by other statistics.

All data from fangraphs and baseball-reference

Sunday, July 17, 2011

The men behind the win 7/17/11

1) Homer Bailey. He had some really nice starts earlier this season before the injury, but this is the best and most important to date. Only 6 baserunners in 7.1 IP. Only one mistake pitch, to Berkman for the solo HR. Struggled a couple times with control and wasn't really hitting his spots but the bite on his slider was sufficient that he didn't need pinpoint accuracy.

2) Zack Cozart. Hit his first MLB home run to add a vital insurance run and continues to impress, with at least one hit in every game played so far. Why EVER play Renteria?

3) Miguel Cairo. Whenever you need him, he's there for a spark. A triple?!

4) Ryan Hanigan. It was ugly, but unlike Gomes/Bruce/Stubbs/Phillips/Rolen/Lewis/etc you can count on him to put the ball in play with a man on third.

Huge series win. The Reds will still be 3.0 back of St. Louis and Pittsburgh, and likely 3.5 back of Milwaukee. But we're very much in the race and now have an opportunity to take ground from Pittsburgh. Cueto pitches in the finale Wednesday. Willis/McDonald (toss-up) Monday and Leake/Morton (likely loss) Tuesday.

Saturday, July 16, 2011

How clutch was that home run?

Since 1950 (as far back as baseball-reference's play index will go), the Reds have only had seven home runs that met all of the following conditions:

- walk-off winner
- 2 outs
- behind at the time
- tying run not even in scoring position, meaning extra bases (or relying on another hit from the next guy) were required to keep the game alive

They are:
Wally Post in 1954 (3-run homer, down 2 against Chicago)
Roy McMillan in 1957 (2-run homer, down 1 against St. Louis - identical in many respects to BP's)
Hal King in 1973 (3-run homer, down 2 against Los Angeles)
Tony Perez in 1974 (2-run homer, down 1 against San Francisco)
Adam Dunn in 2006 (grand slam, down 3 against Cleveland)
Ramon Hernandez in 2011 (3-run homer, down 2 against Milwaukee)
Brandon Phillips in 2011 (2-run homer, down 1 against St. Louis)

More trivia on the event:

- It was Brandon's second walk-off home run of his career and first with the Reds, and third walk-off hit of any kind as a Red.

- Votto and Bruce are the co-leaders on the current roster for walk-off hits as Reds, with 4 each. Two by Bruce and one by Votto were home runs.

- Tony Perez is the all-time Reds leader in walk-off hits with 19. Frank Robinson had 14.

- Perez also leads the Reds in walk-off homers with 10. Adam Dunn had 7.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Cincinnati Reds All-Star Game History

The Reds were abysmal last night in the All-Star Game, going 0 for 6 with 4 strikeouts, plus an error by Jay Bruce. Here are the highlights and lowlights in Reds' ASG history.


Best combined hitting:


1) 1976. 7 for 14, 3 runs, 4 RBI, 1 HR. Bench, Concepcion, Foster, Griffey, Perez, Morgan and Rose. Foster's 3-run HR was the highlight.


2) 1956. 6 for 15, 3 runs, 2 RBI. Bailey, Kluszewski, Bell, Robinson, McMillan, Temple. Big Klu was 2 for 2.


3) 1954. 3 for 5, 3 runs, 5 RBI, 2 HR from only two players - Bell and Kluszewski.


4) 1980. 3 for 6, 3 runs, 1 RBI, 1 HR. Bench, Concepcion, Knight, and Griffey - who had the HR.


5) 1975. 5 for 15, 2 RBI. Bench, Morgan, Rose, Concepcion, Perez.


Honorable mention to 1967...only 1 for 4, but the hit was a game-winning HR by Perez in the 15th inning.




Best pitching:


1) 1940. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Derringer (got the win) and Walters.


2) 1990. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Armstrong, Dibble and Myers.


3) 1942. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Vander Meer and Walters.


4) 1938. 3 IP, 0 runs allowed by Vander Meer, who also got the win.


5) 1982. 2.1 IP, 0 runs allowed. Soto and Hume, who recorded a save.








Worst all-around:


1) 1995. 0 for 6 with 2 strikeouts at the plate. 2 runs allowed in 2 innings pitched.


2) 1965. 0 for 3 at the plate. 5 ER in 1.2 IP by Jim Maloney.


3) 2011. 0 for 6 with 4 strikeouts.


4) 1977. 2 for 12 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR. Five all-world guys should've done better with all those at-bats. And Seaver gave up 3 runs in 2 IP.


5) 1981. 0 for 5. Solo HR allowed in 1 IP.


Honorable mention to 1970 at Riverfront...if it weren't for Rose scoring the winning run, the Reds going 1 for 9 in the game would've been an embarrassment.




Best individual hitters, min. 10 AB:


1) Johnny Bench. 10 for 28


2) Ted Kluszewski. 7 for 14


3) Frank Robinson. 5 for 12






Worst individual hitters, min. 10 AB:


1) Barry Larkin. 2 for 18


2) Pete Rose. 6 for 27.


3) Joe Morgan. 6 for 24.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Milwaukee Walkoffs

I know we're all getting tired of watching these bums dance around home plate on us...and I already felt like they did it a disproportionate amount of the time. Turns out that's true.

Since the Brewers moved to the NL we've lost 53 times on their home field (overall our record is okay there actually, 56-53)

12 of them have been walkoff losses, plus another 7 where they went ahead in the bottom of the 8th.

As far as the walkoffs, that's 23% of the time we lose to them.

In MLB as a whole, only about 8-9% of games end that way.

So yes, it is a curse.

Or in the case of today's game, the curse of Dusty Baker. I like the guy overall but sometimes he makes some puzzling decisions. Today was mindblowing...why we even used a physically-worn and confidence-worn Cordero again with SO MANY OPTIONS AVAILABLE is beyond me. But it is what it is. What literally could and should have been a 4 game sweep is a 3-1 series loss.

The men behind the win, 7/9/11

1) Jay Bruce - 2 singles, 2 walks, 1 HR in 6 PAs. Go-ahead solo HR in the 10th inning for his only RBI. 2 runs scored.

2) Ramon Hernandez - single, HR in 5 ABs. 3 RBIs. Gave the Reds their first lead.

3) Joey Votto - 3 singles, 1 BB in 6 PAs. 1 RBI

4) Bill Bray - he did have a nightmarish throwing error on a pickoff attempt in the 9th (the THIRD error by a Reds pitcher in a single game). BUT he came in with a guy on and nobody out in a tie game, got a K and flyout, walked Fielder intentionally and then sent it to extras by recording the last out. He's the one guy on the team who has consistently performed with inherited runners.

The underperformers (in spite of the win):

- Drew Stubbs (0 for 6 in the leadoff spot, with 3 strikeouts...a familiar refrain)
- Johnny Cueto...the absolute definition of a non-quality quality start. 4 walks. 2 errors. Gave up all the runs early. But if this is about as bad as it gets for 2011 Cueto (and basically, it is) we'll take it. Frankly I'm not surprised that he struggled a bit. He hasn't pitched well at Miller Park and the pre-game team meeting probably added some pressure to his outing.
- Scott Rolen...1 for 5 with 2 strikeouts...and an unfathomable NINE MEN LEFT ON BASE
- Fred Lewis twice failed to convert with 2 outs and the bases loaded.

The Reds went 3 for 7 with 2 outs and RISP. 0 for 3 (Lewis twice, Rolen) in regulation and then 3 for 4 in the big 10th inning - Cairo, Votto and BP all had RBI singles and Bruce lined out.

History of the NL Central at the All-Star Break

The Reds currently sit alone in 4th place in the division, 3 games back of the co-leaders Milwaukee and St. Louis, and 2 back of surprising Pittsburgh. While no team in NL Central history has come back from 4th place to win, there is definitely precedent for making up this number of games.

The key years to consider are 1996, 1997, 2003, 2006 and 2007 - the years in which a team won the division with fewer than 90 victories. It certainly looks like that's where we're headed again.

In three of those five years, the champion came from behind at the All-Star Break:
1997 Astros (2 under .500, 2nd place, 1 behind)
2003 Cubs (even .500, 3rd place, 3 behind)
2007 Cubs (1 over .500, 2nd place, 4.5 behind)

One other year, the eventual champion was tied at the break:
1996 Cardinals (5 over)

And only one was already ahead comfortably at that point - St. Louis in 2006, and even they struggled down the stretch in a close race.

There was even a 93 game winner (2001 Astros) that had to come from 3 back of the Cubs at the ASB. And that year's St. Louis team was 8 back at the break and still finished with 93 wins as well.

Logic should tell you already that all four of the current contenders have a legitimate chance regardless of how they've played up to this point, and history only serves to back that up.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Reds/Brewers pitching matchups

Just like last season, we head into the break with a tough 4-game road series. While I don't expect this to be as brutal as the Philadelphia series last season, Milwaukee is still an absurd 30-13 at home. Here's a look at what to expect:

Homer Bailey (3-3, 3.64) vs Chris Narveson (5-5, 4.86) in Game 1.

I'd rate this one the second easiest of the series to win, and obviously the most important since it starts things off. There have been only 3 series we played all year where the winner of game 1 didn't go on to win the series. Bailey's career stats against the Brewers aren't great (0-2, 5.36 in 7 starts) but he got only 4 NDs against them in 2010 with a 3.38 ERA, and in limited starts has been pretty solid overall this season. Narveson is trash, and hopefully he gets another pounding (0-3, 7.06 against the Reds).

Mike Leake (8-4, 4.03) vs Zach Greinke (7-3, 5.66)

In my opinion this is the second most difficult game. Leake has been pretty good (second only to Cueto in giving us consistent quality outings) but Greinke is tough, and tough on the Reds. Leake is 0-0, 3.46 versus the Brewers in 2 starts, both this season. Greinke is 2-0, 3.00 against the Reds - 1 complete game with the Royals, 1 game earlier this year where we had him on the ropes early and he settled down to cruise through 6 with only 2 runs given up.

Johnny Cueto (5-3, 1.77) vs Shaun Marcum (7-3, 3.32)

Cueto again gets some poor luck going against a guy who might shut us down, but I still feel safest with Johnny on the mound. Marcum is 0-1, 3.86 agains the Reds in two starts.

Edinson Volquez (5-4, 5.93) vs Randy Wolf (6-6, 3.72)

I really wish Willis were getting this start. I imagine this is Volquez's last chance not to get the hook in Willis' favor if he implodes again, but I am not looking forward to heading into the ASB off another Edinson disaster. Randy Wolf is a pitcher you always feel like should be easier to beat, but somehow year after year he puts up pretty respectable numbers. Worse news is that he has pretty much dominated Cincinnati, 10-4 all-time with a 3.44 ERA. The Reds did have some great success against him in the only meeting this season, racking up 6 runs in 4 innings of a 12-3 win.

My prediction: W-L-W-L, but all four games could go either way.

The men behind the win, 7/6/11

1) Aroldis Chapman - First career save, 1 IP, 2 K

2) Jay Bruce - 2B, HR, BB in 6 PAs. 2 R, 2 RBI

3) Jose Arredondo - 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 K

4) Chris Heisey- HR, 2 BB in 7 PAs. Set the tone for the game with his first-pitch blast.

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Fred Lewis, Sam LeCure, Nick Masset

Guys who let us down in spite of the win...

1) Bill Bray. In a rarity, he let both inherited runners score. He's only allowed that to happen 7 of 28 times this season (25%) and in fact is the only guy on the team below league average (30%) for that stat in both 2010 and 2011.

2) The SS position. No surprise here. Renteria and Janish a combined 1 for 7 with 2 strikeouts and 5 left on base.

3) Bronson Arroyo. What could have been one of his finer starts of the year turned into yet another non-quality start (he now has only 8 in 18 games this year).

Monday, July 4, 2011

2011 Reds SP Game Scores

Johnny Cueto may have been the (extremely) hard luck loser today, but he posted yet another excellent start. By game scores, let's take a look at Red starting pitching. The single best start by anyone on the staff, when measured this way, was Mike Leake's win at San Francisco.

The standard formula: start with 50 points. Add 1 for each out, 1 for each strikeout, 2 for each inning completed after the 4th. Subtract 1 for each walk, 2 for each hit, 2 for each UER, and 4 for each ER. 50+ is considered a quality start with this method. According to Wikipedia, the highest game score achieved in a 9-inning game was Kerry Wood's famous 20 K 1-hitter.

Highest percentage of starts with scores of 70+
Cueto (27%)
Bailey (14%)
Leake (7%)
Arroyo (6%)
Wood (6%)
Volquez (0%)

Highest percentage of 60+
Cueto (82%)
Bailey (43%)
Leake (36%)
Volquez (20%)
Wood (19%)
Arroyo (18%)

Highest percentage of 50+ (quality starts)
Cueto (82%)
Leake (71%)
Bailey (57%)
Wood (50%)
Arroyo (47%)
Volquez (40%)

Cueto has actually had 10 of 11 quality starts by the standard definition (6+, 3 or fewer runs), but one of them didn't make the cut by game score because of the lack of strikeouts. Whether his strikeouts are an issue this year or not depends on your point of view. Typically it's not a good sign (in the sense that sustaining a high level of success with a lot of contact is rare) but it's helping him with efficiency, so I'm not personally inclined to complain.

If Bailey can stay healthy, it looks like he and Leake will be the #2 and #3 guys, but there is a lot of trouble beyond that point.

Arroyo has hardly given us any commanding performances. The number of 60+ game scores for him through this point in the season, each of his years here:

2006 - 9
2007 - 5
2008 - 6
2009 - 5
2010 - 7
2011 - 3

Sunday, July 3, 2011

Fred Lewis for leadoff

Among our current choices, I don't really feel there's a good argument for anyone else.

Consider this:

If you look at the career stats of EVERY single position player on the team, there are only TWO who have higher career OBP leading off innings than their overall career OBP. Most are significantly worse starting things off, including Votto.

The two exceptions are:

Scott Rolen (only .002 higher, and not exactly someone you want leading off)

and

Fred Lewis (.349 overall, .371 leading off innings)

The trend has continued this season, albeit in a small sample size so far. He's got a .391 OBP in 23 such plate appearances.

Heisey: .178 (45 PA)
Stubbs: .286 (147 PA)

While I never want to see him batting 1st (or really in the lineup at all) against lefties, he should be seeing the majority of the time at leadoff unless we make a roster change or Stubbs somehow makes a massive turnaround.

Leadoff batters typically get 1/3 (or more) of their plate appearances leading off innings, while batters in other positions in the order only about 20-25%.

Friday, July 1, 2011

Predicting Runs Scored

I took the combined data from fangraphs for the seasons 1998-2011 (the current complement of teams). And correlated a few standard metrics with runs scored to see which has been the most predictive during the era. The following are R-squared values (highest equals best)

1 = wOBA (weighted on-base average) = .9714
2 = OBP x SLG = .9548
3 = OPS (OBP plus SLG) = .9492
4 = SLG = .8774
5 = OBP = .8736
6 = AVG = .7163

By the way, for wOBA in that time period, the Reds rank 12th in MLB.

The top teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Rockies, Indians, Cardinals

More NL Central comparisons

As we have basically reached the halfway point, here are more stats to consider. Keep in mind that the Brewers and Cardinals are tied for 1st, and the Reds are tied with the Pirates for 3rd.

ERA ranks by month

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
May - 1 = PIT, 2 = MIL, 3 = STL, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL

So Cincinnati is on the upward trend in pitching, thanks mostly to getting healthy.

OBP by month

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = CIN, 4 = PIT
May - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = PIT, 4 = MIL
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = PIT, 4 = STL

While the offense has been very inconsistent, overall it did better than these other contenders in June.

Winning percentage

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = PIT
May - 1 = tie (MIL and STL), 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = PIT, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL

Positional OBP among Central contenders

Ranking production (in terms of OBP) by position, among the four NL Central contenders

P: 1 = MIL, 2 = CIN
C: 1 = CIN, 2 = STL
1B: 1 = CIN, 2 = MIL
2B: 1 = MIL, 2 = CIN
3B: 1 = STL, 2 = CIN
SS: 1 = STL, 2 = PIT
LF: 1 = STL, 2 = MIL
CF: 1 = PIT, 2 = STL
RF: 1 = STL, 2 = CIN

St. Louis and Cincinnati both rank in the top 2 at 6 positions.

Milwaukee at 4 positions.

Pittsburgh at 2 positions.