Mat Latos among a dozen early NL Cy Young contenders

The MLB trend toward dominant pitching continues.  In the National League, the average team ERA was 4.49 just seven seasons ago.  It has steadily decreased to a current mark of 3.82.  Along with that team trend, the individual competition for Cy Young Awards has gotten much tougher.

Mat Latos has been amazing lately - with 20 consecutive non-losing starts dating back to last August, he has set a Reds record for any pitcher since at least 1916.  He's 6-0, with a fantastic 2.87 ERA.  The fact that he still might not even be among the top 5 Cy contenders in the league shows just how ridiculously solid the state of MLB pitching is.

I picked the top 12 statistical performers so far (through the day games on June 9th, 2013).  Here they are, ranked in various categories:

Wins:
1) Adam Wainwright 9
1) Jordan Zimmermann 9
1) Patrick Corbin 9
4) Lance Lynn 8
4) Mike Minor 8
6) Shelby Miller 7
6) Cliff Lee 7
8) Mat Latos 6
8) Hyun-Jin Ryu 6
10) Clayton Kershaw 5
11) Matt Harvey 5
12) Travis Wood 5

ERA:
1) Miller 1.91
2) Kershaw 1.93
3) Corbin 1.98
4) Zimmermann 2.00
5) Harvey 2.10
6) Wainwright 2.34
7) Minor 2.44
8) Lee 2.55
9) Wood 2.65
10) Ryu 2.72
11) Lynn 2.76
12) Latos 2.87

WAR:
1) Wainwright 3.8
2) Kershaw 3.4
2) Lee 3.4
4) Miller 3.3
4) Harvey 3.3
6) Corbin 2.9
7) Wood 2.4
8) Zimmermann 2.3
9) Lynn 2.3
10) Minor 1.9
10) Ryu 1.9
12) Latos 1.6

Strikeouts:
1) Harvey 95
2) Wainwright 91
2) Kershaw 91
4) Lee 93
5) Miller 81
6) Minor 78
7) Lynn 76
8) Latos 74
9) Ryu 73
10) Corbin 65
11) Zimmermann 61
12) Wood 56

xFIP:
1) Wainwright 2.53
2) Harvey 2.88
3) Miller 3.10
4) Kershaw 3.21
5) Lee 3.29
6) Ryu 3.42
7) Latos 3.52
8) Zimmermann 3.55
8) Minor 3.55
10) Lynn 3.62
11) Corbin 3.82
12) Wood 4.43
 
Total combined rankings (averaging everything above)
1) Adam Wainwright
2) Shelby Miller
3) Clayton Kershaw
4) Matt Harvey
5) Cliff Lee
6) Patrick Corbin
7) Jordan Zimmermann
8) Mike Minor
9) Lance Lynn
10) Hyun-Jin Ryu 
11) Mat Latos
12) Travis Wood

No matter how you slice it, Latos has been one of the most valuable pitchers to any team in baseball so far.  But he'll have a lot of work to do if he wants to finish with the Cy.

Johnny Cueto Leading MLB in Wins

After Tuesday's impressive 5-2 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks, Johnny Cueto leads MLB in wins with 17.  

Cueto is on pace for 21 wins, which would make him the first Reds pitcher to win 20+ since Danny Jackson in 1988.

Here is the short list of Cincinnati Reds pitchers who have led the NL or MLB in wins for a full season:

Reds All-Time MLB Leaders in Wins:

1923 - Dolf Luque (27 wins)

1939 - Bucky Walters (27 wins)

1943 - Elmer Riddle (21 wins - tied)

1947 - Ewell Blackwell (22 wins)

1981 - Tom Seaver (14 wins - tied)



Reds All-Time NL Leaders in Wins:

1922 - Eppa Rixey (25 wins)

1926 - Pete Donohue (20 wins - tied)

1940 - Bucky Walters (22 wins)

1944 - Bucky Walters (23 wins)

1961 - Joey Jay (21 wins - tied)

1988 - Danny Jackson (23 wins - tied)

2006 - Aaron Harang (16 wins - tied)

Cincinnati Reds: June 2012 Summary

The Reds went 15-12 in June to remain in first place in the NL Central with an overall record of 43-34.  When the month began, they led St. Louis by 1.5 games.  That lead has expanded to 3.5, but Pittsburgh has remained a worthy challenger, trailing by only 1 game entering play on July 1st.


Cincinnati won 4 series (including consecutive sweeps of the Indians and Mets), lost 4 (including a subsequent sweep at the hands of those same Indians), and lead 2-1 in the incomplete San Francisco series.


Home record: 8-7 (5-4 on the first home stand, 3-3 on the second...overall a bit disappointing)
Road record: 7-5
vs Central: 5-4
vs East: 3-0
vs West: 2-1
vs AL: 5-7 (what else is new...they always find a way to screw up interleague play)


Overall offensive trends: The hitting side made a very respectable showing in June, with a .265 average (23 points higher than May), a .332 OBP (26 points higher) and 112 OPS+ (14 points higher).  Seven players trended up significantly in OPS+, only two went down, and four stayed about the same.  Scoring 4.7 runs a game is definitely sufficient for a playoff contender. Hopefully they can keep this production up.


Overall pitching trends: The staff had mixed but still solid results.  Its ERA was 3.62 (the worst of the year so far) but the WHIP was 1.16 - the best of the year.  The main theme of the month was that the starting pitching fared very well.  The rotation was 11-6 with a 3.74 ERA, with Cueto, Leake and Latos all in top form.  The relief pitching was due for a shaky month, and it had one...but really, the only problem was Aroldis Chapman.  His 0-4 record and 6.97 ERA for June tells the story.   Everyone else did fine, especially Marshall.  Heading forward, the rotation looks good enough to keep us in the mix (barring injury).  The closer situation is an obvious concern.


Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from May (20 or more OPS+ points): Valdez +132, Ludwick +49, Rolen +44, Stubbs +38, Cozart +35, Bruce +25, Phillips +24


Note that Cozart, Rolen and Valdez (especially the latter two) improved from pretty dismal previous numbers.  Improvement is still improvement though.


DOWN significantly from May (20 or more OPS+ points): Heisey -54, Hanigan -50


No significant change: Votto +5, Frazier -14, Mesoraco +1, Cairo -12


Individual pitching trends:


UP significantly from May: Marshall, Cueto, Leake, Arredondo, LeCure, Ondrusek, Latos

DOWN significantly from May: Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman, Hoover

No significant change: Simon


And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of June.

RANDY HITTER: Joey Votto.  Batted .392 with 6 HR, 18 RBI.  An insane 221 OPS+

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Ryan Ludwick.  Raised his OPS significantly, contributed 6 HR and 13 RBI.

RANDY STARTER: Johnny Cueto.  Went 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA, had a complete game. 

Honorable mention: Mike Leake, Mat Latos

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Mike Leake.  Had a 2.55 ERA (1.8 runs lower) and deserved a better result than only a 2-0 record in 6 starts.

RANDY RELIEVER: Sean Marshall.  0.77 ERA and 0.60 WHIP with 9.3 K/9.  

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Also Marshall (lowered his ERA another 2+ runs), for the second straight month.

RANDY NOOB: Because no significant call-ups or acquisitions were made, I'm leaving this blank.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Jay Bruce, 6/29 at San Francisco.  Went 4 for 4 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI, backing up Leake's gem in an important 5-1 win.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Mat Latos, 6/25 vs Milwaukee.  Threw a dominating, 13 strikeout complete game, giving up only 1 run and 4 hits.

Cincinnati Reds: May 2012 Summary

The Reds went 17-11 in May to surge into first place in the NL Central, holding a lead of 1.5 games over the St. Louis Cardinals entering play June 1st.

Cincinnati won 5 series, split 3 and lost 2.


Home: 8-4
Road: 9-7
vs Central: 6-5
vs East: 7-4
vs West: 2-1
vs AL: 2-1

Overall offensive trends: Average stable at an ugly number (.240 April, .242 May).  OBP the same story: .306 in both months.  The only improvement was in power - slugging rose from .387 to .421, boosting the Reds' OPS+ from 95 to 98.  Bottom line: the Reds can win with this offense, but only if the pitching remains other-worldly.  They need to get on base more to help win this division.


Overall pitching trends: The starters posted almost identical, solid-but-not-spectacular numbers in May (3.86 ERA) relative to April (3.89).  The bullpen went from great to insanely great, lowering its ERA from 2.81 to 2.02 and its WHIP from 1.25 to 1.03.  All these numbers are good enough to make the playoffs.  Again, the question is offense.


Individual offensive trends:
UP significantly (40 or more OPS+ points): Votto, Heisey, Hanigan
DOWN significantly: Bruce, Cozart, Mesoraco
NOT MUCH CHANGE (GOOD): Phillips
NOT MUCH CHANGE (BAD): Stubbs


Individual pitching trends:
UP significantly: Latos, Bailey, Leake, Simon, LeCure, Marshall
DOWN significantly: Cueto, Arroyo, Ondrusek
NOT MUCH CHANGE (GOOD): Chapman, Arredondo

And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of May.

RANDY HITTER: 

Joey Votto - .355, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 23 walks

Honorable mention: Ryan Hanigan

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: 

Chris Heisey (raised his OPS+ by 46 points)

RANDY STARTER: 

Mat Latos (3-0, 3.26, and a 1.12 WHIP)

Honorable mention: Homer Bailey

RANDY MOST IMPROVED PITCHER: 

Mike Leake (his ERA was 2.1 runs lower)

RANDY RELIEVER: 

Aroldis Chapman (still sporting a 0.00 ERA, struck out 23 batters in May)

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: 

Sean Marshall (his ERA was 2.4 runs lower)

RANDY NEWBIE: 
JJ Hoover (0.90 ERA in 10 IP, 10 K) - yes he pitched in April, but May was his first full month with the Reds.

First 3 versus Last 3

I'm talking about innings. 

The Reds have scored 58 runs in innings 7-8-9, which is tied for best in the NL with Colorado.

The Reds have allowed only 29 runs in innings 7-8-9, which is best in all of MLB.

Clearly they dominate the end of games, which has kept us in the race.

The first three innings of the game are an entirely different story. 

Cincinnati has only scored 33 total runs in the opening three frames, which is worse than all teams except Oakland (32), Pittsburgh (32) and the Mets (also 33). 

For contrast, St. Louis has scored more runs in the third inning alone (35).

If you look at only the 2nd and 3rd innings specifically, the Reds have scored 13 total runs, easily the worst in MLB and a product of the weak bottom of our order.

There have been only two games so far this year where the Reds have scored in two or more of the first three innings - April 28th against Houston and May 6th at Pittsburgh, both victories.

Reds Bullpen on a Tear

FACT #1: Since Sean Marshall's unfortunate blown save against San Francisco on Thursday, April 26th, the Reds' bullpen has thrown 17 straight scoreless innings over the course of 5 games.  During that remarkable stretch, they've only allowed 6 hits and struck out 14 while walking only 6.

FACT #2:  Aroldis Chapman (13.1 innings), Logan Ondrusek (12) and JJ Hoover (4) are all yet to allow a single run (earned OR unearned) this season.  That's a combined 29.1 scoreless innings, with only 11 hits allowed.


In addition, Jose Arredondo has 10.1 scoreless IP since his only outing (in early April) where he allowed any runs.


Wow.

A Review of the Reds' April Pitching

The Reds have definitely shown some improvement on the mound in 2012.  Unfortunately, the loss of Madson has prevented this from being a truly special group of pitchers.  With him around, perhaps we'd be enjoying Chapman as a starter - likely in place of Leake, who has performed the worst in the rotation so far.

When compared to the two previous complete seasons of Cincinnati baseball, the Reds' April 2012 numbers stack up best of the group in the following categories:

ERA+ (109)
WHIP (1.29)
HR/9 (0.8)
K/BB (2.39)

BULLPEN

My grades for the relievers in April:
Chapman: A+
Ondrusek: A+
Arredondo: A
Simon: B-
LeCure: C-
Marshall: D
Bray: incomplete (injury, only 2.2 innings pitched)
Hoover: incomplete (only 3 inning pitched)

The relief corps has done very well, only allowing 23% of inherited runners to score, and holding opposing batters to a .210 average.  The only problem is that we've had to lean so heavily on the top performers. 

Aroldis Chapman and Logan Ondrusek have been absolute maniacs, with a combined 23.1 scoreless innings where they've allowed only 19 total baserunners (knock on wood).

ROTATION

I'd grade our five as follows:
Cueto: A+ 
Arroyo: A (great bounceback from 2011 so far, and we've needed it with Leake's dropoff)
Bailey: C+
Latos: D
Leake: F

It's reasonable to expect that Cueto and Bailey will finish the season roughly where they are now.  Arroyo will probably regress a bit, and hopefully both Latos and Leake (or a replacement for Leake) will improve enough to more than offset that, giving the Reds a very solid rotation.  Likely not enough to get the Reds a division title (unless they make a significant hitting acquisition), but very good nonetheless.

A few more random notes on the rotation:

OK: The starters' 1st inning ERA is about a run better than last year, but still a run worse than 2010


BAD: The batting average against our starters is the highest of the past three seasons, with only Cueto's lower than league average.

GOOD: The Reds' daytime ERA is only 3.06, meaning both our bats and our arms are best in the sunlight.  Just wish we had more day games...

BAD: The starters have only achieved 50% quality starts and are averaging only 6 innings per start, due mostly to high pitch counts.  

BAD: All five starters are striking out less than 20% of batters faced, including Latos with the worst rate of his career so far.


INDIVIDUAL STATS:


Best Win Probability Added:
Chapman 1.1
Ondrusek 0.8
Cueto 0.7


Worst WPA: 
Marshall, Leake and Latos: -0.7


Best ERA+
Cueto 273 (best of career)
Arredondo 154 (best of career)
Arroyo 141 (best since 2006)


Worst ERA+
Leake 58 (his worst of past three seasons)
Latos 64 (his worst of past three seasons)
LeCure 70 (his worst of past three seasons)


As you can see, these ERA+ numbers are all more severe in both directions than they'll ultimately be for the entirety of 2012...hopefully the positive changes outweigh the negative over the balance of the season.

Reds' 2011 offensive drop-off

An assertion commonly made about the failures of the 2011 Reds is that the lack of quality pitching was the primary reason. I wouldn't dispute any of the following:

- pitching was, and remains, a problem for making it to the postseason
- if the Reds were to make it back to the playoffs, they'd have even more problems because Cueto is the only guy who even comes close to measuring up with the top 3 of other staffs
- obtaining a #1 or #2 starter HAS to be an offseason priority

In spite of all this, I would make the argument that offense was a bigger determinant of the drop-off from 2010 to 2011. The simple counter-argument is "hey, they were second in the NL in runs per game, while the pitching staff was 12th in the league in ERA." I am more than aware of those numbers, but one thing I've harped on all season has been the variation from game to game. Overall the Reds have indeed scored a lot of runs, but they've also come up empty a lot.

Let's compare the Reds' hitting and pitching performances with 2010, and then with this year's NL playoff teams.

2011 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.13) - 41% (67 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 62% (100 of 162 games)

2010 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.33) - 49% (80 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 65% (106 of 162 games)

One important note is that virtually any team will have a higher "success rate" for pitching than hitting simply by nature of this mathematical approach. You can't read much into the comparison of hitting vs. pitching for one given team, but comparing across teams does give you a good idea of where they stand. The numbers above clearly show that hitting took a bigger dive than pitching.

More evidence:
- Pitching WAR actually went up from 2010 to 2011, from 7.5 to 10.2
- Offensive WAR went down dramatically, from 28.5 to 21.6
- Almost all positions saw a drop in OPS: C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF and CF. Only 2B and RF went up.

We all know the reasons why...injuries (Rolen and Cozart), backsliding performance (Janish and Stubbs), and easily foreseeable failure (Renteria and Gomes).

How the Reds rank this season compared to the playoff teams...

Successful hitting games:
St. Louis 75
Milwaukee 72
Cincinnati 67
Philadelphia 65
Arizona 65

Successful pitching/defense games:
Philadelphia 121
Milwaukee 104
Cincinnati 100
St. Louis 98
Arizona 97

Certainly, Cincinnati's numbers were buoyed a bit by the fact they allowed half the unearned runs (42) that St. Louis did (84) with its shoddy defense. Still, they don't appear to be dramatically behind in either category.

Some timeliness would certainly help - the Reds were by far the worst of these five teams in one-run games, and also failed to capitalize on good pitching performances when they got them, as seen here:

Winning percentage in games when allowing 3 or fewer runs:
Arizona .872 (68-10)
St. Louis .851 (63-11)
Milwaukee .828 (72-15)
Philadelphia .802 (81-20)
Cincinnati .701 (54-23)

Not that this prediction is particularly risky, but I'm highly confident that neither Arizona nor Milwaukee will come within 5 of this season's win totals in 2012. Arizona not only bested its Pythagorean expectation (88) by 6, but the numbers mentioned earlier for games with good pitching and hitting would suggest (by correlation) that they'd win far fewer. Milwaukee should still be good, but are more realistically an 88-90 win club with their current roster than a 96-win team. They might repeat, but it won't be as easy as this year.

I'll end this discussion with a comparison of WAR totals:
Philadelphia - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 30 for pitching = 52.2
Milwaukee - 24.3 for hitting/defense, 17.8 for pitching = 42.1
St. Louis - 30.0 for hitting/defense, 11.0 for pitching = 41
Arizona - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 13.7 for pitching = 35.8
Cincinnati - 24.8 for hitting/defense, 10.2 for pitching = 35

If you add these numbers to a "replacement level" squad that would win 30% (48.6) of its games, you would get the following expectations:

Philadelphia - 101 (actually won 102)
Milwaukee - 91 (actually won 96)
St. Louis - 90 (actually won 90)
Arizona - 84 (actually won 94, Pythag expectation was 88)
Cincinnati - 84 (actually won 79, Pythag expectation was 83)

One last prediction: If Cincinnati remains essentially the same squad next season, they should win 84-85 games but that won't be enough to compete for the playoffs. If they solve at least two of the three main problem positions (SS/3B/LF) they will compete for the division title but won't be able to win a playoff round. If they solve a couple of those positions AND add a high-caliber starting pitcher or two, they stand an excellent chance of making their first NLCS appearance since 1995.

Ranking the Reds' Starting Pitching

By median game score:
1) Cueto 62
2) Bailey 57
3) Leake 54.5
4) Willis 52
5) Wood 49.5
6) Arroyo 46
7) Volquez 44

By percentage of starts with game scores of 40+ (keeping the team in the game)
1) Cueto 91
2) Leake 88
3) Willis 83
4) Volquez 77
5) Arroyo 76
6) Wood 75
7) Bailey 68

By ERA:
1) Cueto 2.36
2) Leake 4.00
3) Bailey 4.34
4) Wood 4.92
5) Willis 5.04
6) Arroyo 5.28
7) Volquez 5.80

By xFIP:
1) Leake 3.65
2) Cueto 3.86
3) Bailey 3.89
4) Willis 4.07
5) Volquez 4.22
6) Arroyo 4.52
7) Wood 4.60

By SIERA:
1) Leake 3.57
2) Willis 4.12
3) Cueto 4.13
4) Volquez 4.26
5) Bailey 4.37
6) Wood 4.39
7) Arroyo 4.41

By WAR (extrapolated to 35 starts)
1) Cueto 4.4
2) Bailey 2.4
3) Wood 2.2
4) Leake 2.0
5) Willis 1.8
6) Volquez -0.6
7) Arroyo -1.1

Composite rankings
1) Cueto 1.5
2) Leake 2.2
3) Bailey 3.7
4) Willis 3.8
5) Wood 5.2
6) Volquez 5.5
7) Arroyo 6.2

It's funny how closely these final numbers resemble each pitcher's ideal role. Cueto has pitched like an ace, but is likely something between a 1 and a 2 on a true contender. Leake looks like a 2nd or 3rd starter. Bailey and Willis are good enough to be 4th (or 5th) starters - but Bailey really needs to reduce the percentage of very poor outings. And the other three (if they continue to pitch as they have in 2011) don't belong in the rotation.

Bad offense, meet bad bullpen

If you watched today's game on FOX, you heard Mitch Williams blaming the Reds' woes on pitching, because that's the "intelligent" thing for an analyst to say. As I've bemoaned on this blog the past couple months, the offense has been the real problem, and it's been that way the entire season. Eliminating wins where both the offense and pitching/defense were good, and losses where both phases were bad, you get:

March/April:
3 "hitting wins" and 6 "hitting losses" Score: -3
3 "pitching wins" and 3 "pitching losses" Score: 0

May: Hitting -2, Pitching 0

June: Hitting -7, Pitching +3

July: Hitting -4, Pitching +1

August so far: Hitting -2, Pitching +2

Unfortunately, this month we've had a new problem arise: the bullpen. It performed admirably through July, and still has an ERA half a run lower than last season, but has completely fallen off the table in August with an ERA near 6.

Ondrusek, Bray, LeCure and Masset have all had an atrocious August, and even Chapman imploded in today's game. Only the much-maligned Francisco Cordero has been consistent, and Arredondo has done okay as well.

Want something positive? Although it's not, and shouldn't be, his natural spot in the order, BP has been ridiculous in his 3 games back in the leadoff spot. 9 for 13 and a walk, 1 home run and 4 RBI.

Dontrelle Willis, meanwhile, has thrown 6 quality starts among his 8 total this season, and is still winless. See what I mean about offense?

Pitchers due to improve

Using half a run as the cutoff skews things, such that the large list of "lucky" pitchers above is opposed by only two "unlucky" pitchers with respect to both xFIP and tERA:

Brandon Morrow
Zack Greinke

(both should be expected to get better results as the season progresses)

If you look at xFIP alone, you get a bigger list. Again, all these guys theoretically should do BETTER the rest of the season:

Mike Leake
David Price
Madison Bumgarner
Matt Garza
Ryan Dempster
Edwin Jackson
Derek Lowe
Yovani Gallardo
Felipe Paulino
Chris Narveson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Chris Volstad
Carlos Carrasco
Gavin Floyd
Max Scherzer
Ted Lilly
Brett Myers
Jake Westbrook
Fausto Carmona
Brandon Morrow
Zack Greinke

Three Reds (Volquez, Wood, and Arroyo) also have had unlucky ERAs but weren't on the main list because of their xFIPs weren't below 4.00

How far the pitching has come

The Reds may have finished only 14-12 this month, with a few losses that easily could've/should've gone our way.

But as we all noticed, the pitching was vastly improved. In 20 of the 26 games, the opposition scored 4 or fewer runs. That's the first month this season we've had 20 games that solid.

In 2010, the Reds had three such months of 20 games holding the opposition under 5 runs (May, July and September).

In 2009, the Reds accomplished it only in September.

And here's the crazy thing. Before that, you have to go all the way back to May 1997 to find the previous single month with pitching of that quality.