First 3 versus Last 3

I'm talking about innings. 

The Reds have scored 58 runs in innings 7-8-9, which is tied for best in the NL with Colorado.

The Reds have allowed only 29 runs in innings 7-8-9, which is best in all of MLB.

Clearly they dominate the end of games, which has kept us in the race.

The first three innings of the game are an entirely different story. 

Cincinnati has only scored 33 total runs in the opening three frames, which is worse than all teams except Oakland (32), Pittsburgh (32) and the Mets (also 33). 

For contrast, St. Louis has scored more runs in the third inning alone (35).

If you look at only the 2nd and 3rd innings specifically, the Reds have scored 13 total runs, easily the worst in MLB and a product of the weak bottom of our order.

There have been only two games so far this year where the Reds have scored in two or more of the first three innings - April 28th against Houston and May 6th at Pittsburgh, both victories.

Predicting Runs Scored

I took the combined data from fangraphs for the seasons 1998-2011 (the current complement of teams). And correlated a few standard metrics with runs scored to see which has been the most predictive during the era. The following are R-squared values (highest equals best)

1 = wOBA (weighted on-base average) = .9714
2 = OBP x SLG = .9548
3 = OPS (OBP plus SLG) = .9492
4 = SLG = .8774
5 = OBP = .8736
6 = AVG = .7163

By the way, for wOBA in that time period, the Reds rank 12th in MLB.

The top teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Rockies, Indians, Cardinals

Stranded

Thought I'd take a look at the percentage of times individual players have been driven in once they get on base.

As a first example, Votto has reached base 156 times. Subtracting the 11 HR, that's 145 times actually ON base. He has scored 53 times, but you subtract the 11 HR again to get 42 times he was driven in by someone else or some other event.

So he has scored only 29% of the time when on base. Not good.

The rates for some others:

Stubbs: 43 of 103 (42%)
Phillips: 42 of 110 (38%)
Bruce: 29 of 94 (31%)
Gomes: 18 of 67 (27%)
Rolen: 24 of 59 (41%)

As you can see from this information and the previous post...Phillips and Votto do a fine job driving in Stubbs, Votto and Rolen drive in Phillips a lot, but we aren't doing enough hitting behind Votto.

Leadoff Hitters and First Inning Offense

I mentioned in the previous post that Stubbs' OBP was insufficient for a leadoff man. While certainly not ideal, he's a long way from being the worst choice out there.

In fact, among the past 20 World Series winners (beginning with the Reds, ending with the Giants) five had equal or worse leadoff batter OBPs. Not that it's Hall of Fame company - Dan Gladden, Andres Torres, Luis Castillo, Devon White and Marquis Grissom.

In looking at these statistics I happened upon one other comparison between the current Reds and past champions, which is less favorable. All of the recent champions have been strong offensively in the first inning, scoring an average of 12.68% of their runs in that frame.

The lowest percentage, and only one under 10%, belonged to the 1996 New York Yankees (9.64%). Checking in at a whopping 17.84% were the 1997 Marlins - curiously so, considering their poor leadoff performance that season.

Our beloved Redlegs have been slow starters in 2011. After posting a respectable first inning run total in 2010, only 8.99% of their runs (34 of 378) have come in the opening inning this year.

As an inevitable result, the opposition has scored first in 62% of the games (48 of 78) and the Reds are 22-26 in those contests, only achieving such a decent record because of their late inning heroics.

Want specific players to blame? Among the three players with the most first inning at-bats, only Brandon Phillips hits well (.308 BA). Stubbs is an abysmal .177 and Votto an uncharacteristic .262 (but his OBP is still .395).

Guys like Jay Bruce (.292) and Scott Rolen (.267) likely have their statistics skewed upward by the fact they would only bat in the first if the Reds are succeeding against the pitcher.

In conclusion, we're still searching for our man at leadoff. Heisey may have hit pretty well now for a few games, but he's still only 2 for 11 in the first inning.

I've long thought that we should give Fred Lewis a shot now and then, as he does boast a career leadoff average higher than his overall average, and if I recall correctly he is the ONLY player on the Reds' roster with such a statistic.

This may (hopefully) become moot, with the (hopefully) imminent arrival of Dave Sappelt. Zack Cozart is another player with potential to give the Reds' inconsistent offense a shot in the arm, but that's a discussion for another day.