History of Cincinnati Reds Opening Day Starters

Thanks to Johnny Cueto, the Reds have had a true ace ready to go on Opening Day since 2012.  It's nice to get the season off to a good start.

Before Cueto (and Harang, who was at least respectable) Cincinnati fans have endured some atrocious Opening Day starters, most notably from 2002 through 2005:

2002 - Joey Hamilton
2003 - Jimmy Haynes
2004 - Cory Lidle
2005 - Paul Wilson

An unbelievable list, isn't it?

The most Opening Day starts by Cincinnati pitchers:
1) Mario Soto - 6 (1982-86, 1988)
2) Aaron Harang - 5 (2006-10)
2) Pete Donohue - 5 (1923-27)
4) Johnny Cueto - 4 (2012-15)
4) Jose Rijo - 4 (1992-95)
4) Bucky Walters - 4 (1939, 1942, 1945-46)
7) Tom Seaver, Tom Browning, Gary Nolan, Jim O'Toole, Ewell Blackwell, Paul Derringer, Si Johnson all had the honor 3 times

Mario Soto also has the most Opening Day wins (4) and sadly, no other starter has more than 2.  Dolf Luque recorded 2 as a starter and 1 in relief.

Aaron Harang has the most Opening Day losses (4).  Jose Rijo and Bucky Walters both had 3.

The best Cincinnati Opening Day starting pitching performances (in chronological order):
1925 Pete Donohue - 9 IP, 0 R
1928 Dolf Luque - 9 IP, 1 R
1940 Paul Derringer - 9 IP, 1 R
1943 Johnny Vander Meer - 11 IP, 0 R
1959 Bob Purkey - 9 IP, 1 R
1961 Jim O'Toole - 9 IP, 1 R
1963 Jim O'Toole - 9 IP, 1 R
1970 Jim Merritt - 9 IP, 1 R
1975 Don Gullett - 9.2 IP, 1 R (no decision)
1980 Frank Pastore - 9 IP, 0 R
1984 Mario Soto - 9 IP, 1 R
1993 Jose Rijo - 8 IP, 0 R

And now Cueto, who has gone 7 innings in each of his four starts:
2012 - 7 IP, 0 R, 3 H, WIN vs. Marlins
2013 - 7 IP, 1 R, 3 H, ND (Reds lost to Angels in extras)
2014 - 7 IP, 1 R, 3 H, LOSS vs. Cardinals (Wainwright)
2015 - 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, ND (Reds won vs. Pittsburgh)

Most career WAR among Cincinnati Reds pitchers

This list doesn't discriminate between starters and relievers, because no one who pitched solely as a reliever accumulated enough WAR to make the top 10.

1) Noodles Hahn, 39.6 in 7 seasons
2) Jim Maloney, 35.1 in 11 seasons
3) Dolf Luque, 35 in 12 seasons
4) Jose Rijo, 33.7 in 10 seasons
5) Paul Derringer, 31.2 in 10 seasons
6) Bucky Walters, 31.2, in 11 seasons
7) Gary Nolan, 28.2 in 10 seasons
8) Mario Soto, 26.9 in 12 seasons
9) Joe Nuxhall, 25.4 in 15 seasons
10) Bob Purkey, 24.9 in 7 seasons
10) Bob Ewing, 24.9 in 8 seasons

If he stays around and stays healthy, it's likely we'll see Johnny Cueto on this list in a few years.

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds starting pitchers

Starting pitching is even more difficult to compare across eras. While stats like complete games may be valuable to a comparison of modern pitchers, obviously pitchers in the 1900s and 1910s will dominate the rankings. An extra problem is that the Cy Young award hasn't been around as long as the MVP award (only since 1956). I did what I could to even the playing field, giving extra weight to WAR and making some subjective judgments of what certain pitchers might have accomplished in today's game.

1) Bucky Walters, 1939. No Cincinnati Red has ever won a Cy Young Award, but Walters is the only one with an NL MVP. He led the league in wins (most ever by a Red pitcher), complete games and ERA+. That season he also accumulated 7.7 WAR.

2) Dolf Luque, 1923. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt...neither the MVP nor the Cy existed yet, but I'm sure he would've won one or both this season. After all, he led the league in wins, shutouts and ERA. He also posted 9.9 WAR, easily the highest ever by a Reds pitcher.

3) Jose Rijo, 1993. The second-highest pitching WAR ever by a Red - 8.6. He finished 5th in Cy voting and got some MVP votes. Led the league in strikeouts.

4) Mario Soto, 1983. Finished second in Cy voting. This season ranks him second among all Red starting pitchers in average game score, third in quality start percentage, and fourth in strikeouts.

5) Tom Seaver, 1977. Most of his best seasons were with the Mets, making him very similar to Ken Griffey, Jr., but his first (incomplete) season with the Reds was superb. He finished third in Cy voting after compiling 5.4 WAR in Cincinnati and 2.2 in New York. He led the league in WHIP and his 1977 season ranks first among all Reds pitchers in average game score.

6) Jim Maloney, 1965. 8.0 WAR. This season ranks third among Red pitchers in strikeouts and average game score.

7) Ewell Blackwell, 1947. 8.3 WAR.

8) Mario Soto, 1982. 7.0 WAR, most strikeouts ever by a Red pitcher.

9) Bob Purkey, 1962. 7.2 WAR, led the league in win percentage.

10) Noodles Hahn, 1902. He had some great seasons at the turn of the century for the Reds, and this one rated the best in terms of WAR (7.7).

Others worth mentioning:
Gary Nolan, 1967 and 1972
Jim Maloney, 1966
Bucky Walters, 1940
Noodles Hahn, 1901, 1903 and 1904
Fred Toney, 1915
Danny Jackson, 1988
Eppa Rixey, 1923 and 1925
Elmer Riddle, 1941

2011 Reds SP Game Scores

Johnny Cueto may have been the (extremely) hard luck loser today, but he posted yet another excellent start. By game scores, let's take a look at Red starting pitching. The single best start by anyone on the staff, when measured this way, was Mike Leake's win at San Francisco.

The standard formula: start with 50 points. Add 1 for each out, 1 for each strikeout, 2 for each inning completed after the 4th. Subtract 1 for each walk, 2 for each hit, 2 for each UER, and 4 for each ER. 50+ is considered a quality start with this method. According to Wikipedia, the highest game score achieved in a 9-inning game was Kerry Wood's famous 20 K 1-hitter.

Highest percentage of starts with scores of 70+
Cueto (27%)
Bailey (14%)
Leake (7%)
Arroyo (6%)
Wood (6%)
Volquez (0%)

Highest percentage of 60+
Cueto (82%)
Bailey (43%)
Leake (36%)
Volquez (20%)
Wood (19%)
Arroyo (18%)

Highest percentage of 50+ (quality starts)
Cueto (82%)
Leake (71%)
Bailey (57%)
Wood (50%)
Arroyo (47%)
Volquez (40%)

Cueto has actually had 10 of 11 quality starts by the standard definition (6+, 3 or fewer runs), but one of them didn't make the cut by game score because of the lack of strikeouts. Whether his strikeouts are an issue this year or not depends on your point of view. Typically it's not a good sign (in the sense that sustaining a high level of success with a lot of contact is rare) but it's helping him with efficiency, so I'm not personally inclined to complain.

If Bailey can stay healthy, it looks like he and Leake will be the #2 and #3 guys, but there is a lot of trouble beyond that point.

Arroyo has hardly given us any commanding performances. The number of 60+ game scores for him through this point in the season, each of his years here:

2006 - 9
2007 - 5
2008 - 6
2009 - 5
2010 - 7
2011 - 3

More NL Central comparisons

As we have basically reached the halfway point, here are more stats to consider. Keep in mind that the Brewers and Cardinals are tied for 1st, and the Reds are tied with the Pirates for 3rd.

ERA ranks by month

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
May - 1 = PIT, 2 = MIL, 3 = STL, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL

So Cincinnati is on the upward trend in pitching, thanks mostly to getting healthy.

OBP by month

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = CIN, 4 = PIT
May - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = PIT, 4 = MIL
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = PIT, 4 = STL

While the offense has been very inconsistent, overall it did better than these other contenders in June.

Winning percentage

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = PIT
May - 1 = tie (MIL and STL), 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = PIT, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL

How far the pitching has come

The Reds may have finished only 14-12 this month, with a few losses that easily could've/should've gone our way.

But as we all noticed, the pitching was vastly improved. In 20 of the 26 games, the opposition scored 4 or fewer runs. That's the first month this season we've had 20 games that solid.

In 2010, the Reds had three such months of 20 games holding the opposition under 5 runs (May, July and September).

In 2009, the Reds accomplished it only in September.

And here's the crazy thing. Before that, you have to go all the way back to May 1997 to find the previous single month with pitching of that quality.