Positional and batting order OPS for 2011

1) Fielding positions where the Reds are above MLB average for OPS: C, 1B, 2B, CF, RF, PH

Note: The overall number for CF is skewed upward by the select few games where Heisey started and blasted some home runs. Stubbs is actually below league average for the position (.714, compared to .742)

2) Fielding positions where the Reds are below MLB average for OPS: SS, 3B, LF

Note: All of these should come as little surprise, but thanks to Cairo at third offsetting Rolen's number, the Reds were almost dead-even with league average at the position (.691). Gomes' OPS in left was significantly better than Lewis or Heisey.

3) Batting order positions where the Reds are above MLB average for OPS: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th

Note: Not only has Bruce been much better than average when batting 5th, but Gomes was above average too at .803.

4) Batting order positions where the Reds are below MLB average for OPS: 1st, 4th, 6th

Note: Stubbs' .715 is only a hair lower than league average when batting leadoff. Bruce, BP and Rolen have all failed to produce up to league average when batting cleanup, although Rolen was by far the worst with an OPS of .551. One more bizarre Gomes note...his .876 OPS in the 6th spot is better than anyone else on the team with significant time there.

MLB rankings of these stats

C - 9th
1B - 4th
2B - 10th
3B - 17th
SS - 24th
LF - 21st
CF - 11th
RF - 7th
P - 6th
DH - 9th
PH - 2nd

Leadoff - 15th
2 - 12th
3 - 2nd
Cleanup - 26th
5 - 8th
6 - 19th
7 - 10th
8 - 6th

All stats from baseball-reference

The men behind the win, 7/9/11

1) Jay Bruce - 2 singles, 2 walks, 1 HR in 6 PAs. Go-ahead solo HR in the 10th inning for his only RBI. 2 runs scored.

2) Ramon Hernandez - single, HR in 5 ABs. 3 RBIs. Gave the Reds their first lead.

3) Joey Votto - 3 singles, 1 BB in 6 PAs. 1 RBI

4) Bill Bray - he did have a nightmarish throwing error on a pickoff attempt in the 9th (the THIRD error by a Reds pitcher in a single game). BUT he came in with a guy on and nobody out in a tie game, got a K and flyout, walked Fielder intentionally and then sent it to extras by recording the last out. He's the one guy on the team who has consistently performed with inherited runners.

The underperformers (in spite of the win):

- Drew Stubbs (0 for 6 in the leadoff spot, with 3 strikeouts...a familiar refrain)
- Johnny Cueto...the absolute definition of a non-quality quality start. 4 walks. 2 errors. Gave up all the runs early. But if this is about as bad as it gets for 2011 Cueto (and basically, it is) we'll take it. Frankly I'm not surprised that he struggled a bit. He hasn't pitched well at Miller Park and the pre-game team meeting probably added some pressure to his outing.
- Scott Rolen...1 for 5 with 2 strikeouts...and an unfathomable NINE MEN LEFT ON BASE
- Fred Lewis twice failed to convert with 2 outs and the bases loaded.

The Reds went 3 for 7 with 2 outs and RISP. 0 for 3 (Lewis twice, Rolen) in regulation and then 3 for 4 in the big 10th inning - Cairo, Votto and BP all had RBI singles and Bruce lined out.

Fred Lewis for leadoff

Among our current choices, I don't really feel there's a good argument for anyone else.

Consider this:

If you look at the career stats of EVERY single position player on the team, there are only TWO who have higher career OBP leading off innings than their overall career OBP. Most are significantly worse starting things off, including Votto.

The two exceptions are:

Scott Rolen (only .002 higher, and not exactly someone you want leading off)

and

Fred Lewis (.349 overall, .371 leading off innings)

The trend has continued this season, albeit in a small sample size so far. He's got a .391 OBP in 23 such plate appearances.

Heisey: .178 (45 PA)
Stubbs: .286 (147 PA)

While I never want to see him batting 1st (or really in the lineup at all) against lefties, he should be seeing the majority of the time at leadoff unless we make a roster change or Stubbs somehow makes a massive turnaround.

Leadoff batters typically get 1/3 (or more) of their plate appearances leading off innings, while batters in other positions in the order only about 20-25%.

The men behind the win 6/29/11

1) Ryan Hanigan. 3-run jack was the biggest hit by him this season.

2) Edinson Volquez. He had an amazing start going, and in the end it was only a quality start. But for him, and for the Reds today, it was good enough.

3) Francisco Cordero. First save opportunity in a while, and he converted.

4) Fred Lewis. A big two-out RBI which proved the deciding run.

Leadoff Hitters and First Inning Offense

I mentioned in the previous post that Stubbs' OBP was insufficient for a leadoff man. While certainly not ideal, he's a long way from being the worst choice out there.

In fact, among the past 20 World Series winners (beginning with the Reds, ending with the Giants) five had equal or worse leadoff batter OBPs. Not that it's Hall of Fame company - Dan Gladden, Andres Torres, Luis Castillo, Devon White and Marquis Grissom.

In looking at these statistics I happened upon one other comparison between the current Reds and past champions, which is less favorable. All of the recent champions have been strong offensively in the first inning, scoring an average of 12.68% of their runs in that frame.

The lowest percentage, and only one under 10%, belonged to the 1996 New York Yankees (9.64%). Checking in at a whopping 17.84% were the 1997 Marlins - curiously so, considering their poor leadoff performance that season.

Our beloved Redlegs have been slow starters in 2011. After posting a respectable first inning run total in 2010, only 8.99% of their runs (34 of 378) have come in the opening inning this year.

As an inevitable result, the opposition has scored first in 62% of the games (48 of 78) and the Reds are 22-26 in those contests, only achieving such a decent record because of their late inning heroics.

Want specific players to blame? Among the three players with the most first inning at-bats, only Brandon Phillips hits well (.308 BA). Stubbs is an abysmal .177 and Votto an uncharacteristic .262 (but his OBP is still .395).

Guys like Jay Bruce (.292) and Scott Rolen (.267) likely have their statistics skewed upward by the fact they would only bat in the first if the Reds are succeeding against the pitcher.

In conclusion, we're still searching for our man at leadoff. Heisey may have hit pretty well now for a few games, but he's still only 2 for 11 in the first inning.

I've long thought that we should give Fred Lewis a shot now and then, as he does boast a career leadoff average higher than his overall average, and if I recall correctly he is the ONLY player on the Reds' roster with such a statistic.

This may (hopefully) become moot, with the (hopefully) imminent arrival of Dave Sappelt. Zack Cozart is another player with potential to give the Reds' inconsistent offense a shot in the arm, but that's a discussion for another day.