Series finale problems not (completely) bullpen's fault

For the Cincinnati Reds, recent series finales have not been an enjoyable experience.  

For the season, the Reds are 11-11 in the final game of a series (even though their record in those series as a whole is 13-9).  However, they have now lost 5 straight finales, and 7 of the last 9.

Of those 7 losses, 6 were in brutal fashion - they blew a lead of at least 2 runs in each, and lost in the final at-bat in 5 of those 6 (including 4 extra-inning defeats).

It's easy to blame the bullpen, because their recent ineptitude has certainly been a large part of the problem.  With a June ERA of 6.69, they are more than partially responsible for the Reds' 0-4 record in series-finishing games this month.

The narrative in the six crushing finale defeats, all involving significant blown leads and occurring since mid-May, has been as follows:

5/19 at Philadelphia (lost 3-2): Chapman blew it in the 9th, giving up back-to-back homers.

5/26 vs. Chicago (lost 5-4 in 10 innings): Ondrusek melted down to blow the lead, and Hoover lost it in extras.

6/1 at Pittsburgh (lost 5-4 in 11 innings): Broxton had another Pittsburgh disaster to blow the lead, and then Simon couldn't hold on in extras.

6/5 vs. Colorado (lost 12-4): After Villarreal's poor start, the Reds still had a chance - that is, until Simon and Parra yielded 3 runs apiece to put it out of reach.

6/9 vs. St. Louis (lost 11-4 in 10 innings): LeCure blew the lead in the 7th, and Hoover imploded in the 10th.

6/13 at Chicago (lost 6-5 in 14 innings): LeCure blew the lead in the 8th, and Broxton lost it in the 14th.

If the narratives above are in line with your thinking, you would have some strong statistical backing.  After all, the bullpen ERA in the six games listed above was a hideous 8.68 (27 total earned runs in 28 innings pitched).

However, I would submit that the offense deserves equal blame.  To support my case, let me point out the fact that the Reds went scoreless from the time of their biggest lead until the end of the game in all six of the games in question.  

Specifically, here is what the offense managed in each case after racing out to a lead:

5/19 at Philadelphia - 3 straight scoreless innings after leading 2-0
5/26 vs. Chicago - 6 straight scoreless innings after leading 4-0
6/1 at Pittsburgh - 10 straight scoreless innings after leading 4-0
6/5 vs. Colorado - 8 straight scoreless innings after leading 4-1
6/9 vs. St. Louis - 5 straight scoreless innings after leading 4-2
6/13 at Chicago - 8 straight scoreless innings after leading 5-3

If the offense goes into such a prolonged slumber (as if to say, "we've done our job, game over") it puts immense pressure on the pitching staff.  40 straight combined scoreless innings, in my opinion, are of equal consequence relative to the bullpen's failures. 

You might notice that I'm leaving criticism of managerial decisions out of this equation.  That is a deliberate decision on my part because it is impossible to know what would have happened in an alternative universe.  I am of the opinion that Dusty deserves some blame for the way a few games have gone this season, but because there is no way to statistically judge his influence, I choose to keep this discussion simpler: is the hitting or the pitching to blame?

To summarize, I would assign blame as follows:

5/19 at Philadelphia - Chapman (just had a poor game, which is bound to happen now and then)

5/26 vs. Chicago - The offense.  All they had to do was score 1 additional run against the Cubs pen to avoid extras.

6/1 at Pittsburgh - The offense.  10 straight scoreless innings.

6/5 vs. Colorado - The starting pitching.  Forced into action because of Cueto's second injury of the year, Pedro Villarreal never stood much of a chance against the Rockies' powerful lineup.

6/9 vs. St. Louis - The offense and the bullpen are equally to blame for this one.  I'll break my own rule and mention Dusty here too, because excessive (and poorly-executed) bunting played a big role in the Reds not securing this victory.

6/13 at Chicago - The offense.  8 straight scoreless innings.  Even 1 run through those first 7 would've been enough to win it.

At the moment, this is a somewhat alarming trend.  And if the Reds had gone 3-3 in these games - you're bound to lose a few painful ones during a 162-game season, but not THIS many - they would be only a half game behind St. Louis instead of 3.5.  

Three of the losses (at Philadelphia, vs. Colorado, vs. St. Louis) were in deciding games and the other three prevented the Reds from completing a sweep. 

Here's hoping the Reds can turn around their finale fortunes, starting this Sunday at GABP against Milwaukee.

Reds Bullpen on a Tear

FACT #1: Since Sean Marshall's unfortunate blown save against San Francisco on Thursday, April 26th, the Reds' bullpen has thrown 17 straight scoreless innings over the course of 5 games.  During that remarkable stretch, they've only allowed 6 hits and struck out 14 while walking only 6.

FACT #2:  Aroldis Chapman (13.1 innings), Logan Ondrusek (12) and JJ Hoover (4) are all yet to allow a single run (earned OR unearned) this season.  That's a combined 29.1 scoreless innings, with only 11 hits allowed.


In addition, Jose Arredondo has 10.1 scoreless IP since his only outing (in early April) where he allowed any runs.


Wow.

A Review of the Reds' April Pitching

The Reds have definitely shown some improvement on the mound in 2012.  Unfortunately, the loss of Madson has prevented this from being a truly special group of pitchers.  With him around, perhaps we'd be enjoying Chapman as a starter - likely in place of Leake, who has performed the worst in the rotation so far.

When compared to the two previous complete seasons of Cincinnati baseball, the Reds' April 2012 numbers stack up best of the group in the following categories:

ERA+ (109)
WHIP (1.29)
HR/9 (0.8)
K/BB (2.39)

BULLPEN

My grades for the relievers in April:
Chapman: A+
Ondrusek: A+
Arredondo: A
Simon: B-
LeCure: C-
Marshall: D
Bray: incomplete (injury, only 2.2 innings pitched)
Hoover: incomplete (only 3 inning pitched)

The relief corps has done very well, only allowing 23% of inherited runners to score, and holding opposing batters to a .210 average.  The only problem is that we've had to lean so heavily on the top performers. 

Aroldis Chapman and Logan Ondrusek have been absolute maniacs, with a combined 23.1 scoreless innings where they've allowed only 19 total baserunners (knock on wood).

ROTATION

I'd grade our five as follows:
Cueto: A+ 
Arroyo: A (great bounceback from 2011 so far, and we've needed it with Leake's dropoff)
Bailey: C+
Latos: D
Leake: F

It's reasonable to expect that Cueto and Bailey will finish the season roughly where they are now.  Arroyo will probably regress a bit, and hopefully both Latos and Leake (or a replacement for Leake) will improve enough to more than offset that, giving the Reds a very solid rotation.  Likely not enough to get the Reds a division title (unless they make a significant hitting acquisition), but very good nonetheless.

A few more random notes on the rotation:

OK: The starters' 1st inning ERA is about a run better than last year, but still a run worse than 2010


BAD: The batting average against our starters is the highest of the past three seasons, with only Cueto's lower than league average.

GOOD: The Reds' daytime ERA is only 3.06, meaning both our bats and our arms are best in the sunlight.  Just wish we had more day games...

BAD: The starters have only achieved 50% quality starts and are averaging only 6 innings per start, due mostly to high pitch counts.  

BAD: All five starters are striking out less than 20% of batters faced, including Latos with the worst rate of his career so far.


INDIVIDUAL STATS:


Best Win Probability Added:
Chapman 1.1
Ondrusek 0.8
Cueto 0.7


Worst WPA: 
Marshall, Leake and Latos: -0.7


Best ERA+
Cueto 273 (best of career)
Arredondo 154 (best of career)
Arroyo 141 (best since 2006)


Worst ERA+
Leake 58 (his worst of past three seasons)
Latos 64 (his worst of past three seasons)
LeCure 70 (his worst of past three seasons)


As you can see, these ERA+ numbers are all more severe in both directions than they'll ultimately be for the entirety of 2012...hopefully the positive changes outweigh the negative over the balance of the season.

Reds 7 Cubs 2: The men behind the win 9/14/11

The Reds got a solid win, and Cueto took a few hundreths of a run off his ERA, but Johnny also exited with arm trouble in the 4th. Officially, he left with a "strained right lat." Clearly there is no need for him to pitch again in 2011 if there's any injury risk, and the real concern is whether the injury is anything that might linger or (heaven forbid) require surgery in the offseason. On to tonight's heroes:

1) Ramon Hernandez. Hit a 3-run blast in the bottom of the 2nd to put the Reds on the board first. It was all the offense they'd need.

2) Juan Francisco. Went 2 for 4, played great defense, and had a 2-run single in the third to really put things away early.

3) Johnny Cueto. Only lasted 3.2 innings, but hey, he's been unreal all year, and didn't give up any runs tonight as the offense cruised to an early lead.

4) The bullpen work of Ondrusek/Masset/Arredondo...LeCure got the win, but these three held the Cubs in check through the final 3 frames.

Tomorrow in the finale it's Homer Bailey and Randy Wells.

Bad offense, meet bad bullpen

If you watched today's game on FOX, you heard Mitch Williams blaming the Reds' woes on pitching, because that's the "intelligent" thing for an analyst to say. As I've bemoaned on this blog the past couple months, the offense has been the real problem, and it's been that way the entire season. Eliminating wins where both the offense and pitching/defense were good, and losses where both phases were bad, you get:

March/April:
3 "hitting wins" and 6 "hitting losses" Score: -3
3 "pitching wins" and 3 "pitching losses" Score: 0

May: Hitting -2, Pitching 0

June: Hitting -7, Pitching +3

July: Hitting -4, Pitching +1

August so far: Hitting -2, Pitching +2

Unfortunately, this month we've had a new problem arise: the bullpen. It performed admirably through July, and still has an ERA half a run lower than last season, but has completely fallen off the table in August with an ERA near 6.

Ondrusek, Bray, LeCure and Masset have all had an atrocious August, and even Chapman imploded in today's game. Only the much-maligned Francisco Cordero has been consistent, and Arredondo has done okay as well.

Want something positive? Although it's not, and shouldn't be, his natural spot in the order, BP has been ridiculous in his 3 games back in the leadoff spot. 9 for 13 and a walk, 1 home run and 4 RBI.

Dontrelle Willis, meanwhile, has thrown 6 quality starts among his 8 total this season, and is still winless. See what I mean about offense?

The men behind the win 7/20/11

1) Johnny Cueto. Another quality start and his ERA back under 2.00

1A) Chase d'Arnaud. Yes, this Pittsburgh Pirate helped us just as much as Cueto, with his two errors (both resulting in unearned runs) and his continued failure at the plate. Only 1 RBI in 89 ABs this year.

3) Jay Bruce. On base all 4 times, scored a run.

4) Logan Ondrusek. Came on with 2 on and 1 out in the 7th and held the 2-run lead. Then got McCutchen to lead off the 8th before exiting.

Red LOBster King of the Day: Ramon Hernandez. 5 LOB, 0 for 4, 2 GIDP. Not his best work