In the 18 previous years of the NL Central's existence, the Reds have been in 1st at the break 3 times (1994, 1995, 2010) and went on to win the division in each of those years - their only three titles.
The Reds were in 2nd place at the ASB four times (1999, 2000, 2002, 2006) and finished 2nd or 3rd each of those years.
They've only improved their divisional standing (games back or games
ahead) after the break four out of eighteen times - 1995 (+4), 2006
(+0.5), 2007 (+0.5) and 2010 (+4).
In other words, let's hope that over the remaining 9 games of the first half, they can hang on to this lead.
More random notes:
Only 7 of 18 times, the Reds were .500 or above at the break.
Only 6 of 18 times, the Reds finished the season .500 or above.
The 1996 team improved from 39-43 to finish .500.
The 2002 and 2006 teams fell off their winning paces to finish below .500.
In the 14 previous years of the current 6-team configuration, the Reds have finished in the top three only 6 times. Thankfully they've never finished dead last, a spot normally reserved for the Pirates.
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Showing posts with label NL Central. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NL Central. Show all posts
Saturday, June 30, 2012
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Projecting the final two months
When I projected based on current home/road records and how many remaining games of those types, then projected based on current .500+/under .500 records and how many remaining games of those types, and averaged the projections, this was the result for the final standings.
Milwaukee: 89 wins
St. Louis: 84 wins
Pittsburgh: 82.5 wins
Cincinnati: 81.5 wins
In other words, not too much different from now. By the end of the season (assuming the same teams stay above and below .500) the teams will have played the following number of games against teams with winning records:
Milwaukee: 76
St. Louis: 75
Pittsburgh: 75
Cincinnati: 95
So really, the rest of the way isn't going to balance things out enough for us.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
History of the NL Central at the All-Star Break
The Reds currently sit alone in 4th place in the division, 3 games back of the co-leaders Milwaukee and St. Louis, and 2 back of surprising Pittsburgh. While no team in NL Central history has come back from 4th place to win, there is definitely precedent for making up this number of games.
The key years to consider are 1996, 1997, 2003, 2006 and 2007 - the years in which a team won the division with fewer than 90 victories. It certainly looks like that's where we're headed again.
In three of those five years, the champion came from behind at the All-Star Break:
1997 Astros (2 under .500, 2nd place, 1 behind)
2003 Cubs (even .500, 3rd place, 3 behind)
2007 Cubs (1 over .500, 2nd place, 4.5 behind)
One other year, the eventual champion was tied at the break:
1996 Cardinals (5 over)
And only one was already ahead comfortably at that point - St. Louis in 2006, and even they struggled down the stretch in a close race.
There was even a 93 game winner (2001 Astros) that had to come from 3 back of the Cubs at the ASB. And that year's St. Louis team was 8 back at the break and still finished with 93 wins as well.
Logic should tell you already that all four of the current contenders have a legitimate chance regardless of how they've played up to this point, and history only serves to back that up.
The key years to consider are 1996, 1997, 2003, 2006 and 2007 - the years in which a team won the division with fewer than 90 victories. It certainly looks like that's where we're headed again.
In three of those five years, the champion came from behind at the All-Star Break:
1997 Astros (2 under .500, 2nd place, 1 behind)
2003 Cubs (even .500, 3rd place, 3 behind)
2007 Cubs (1 over .500, 2nd place, 4.5 behind)
One other year, the eventual champion was tied at the break:
1996 Cardinals (5 over)
And only one was already ahead comfortably at that point - St. Louis in 2006, and even they struggled down the stretch in a close race.
There was even a 93 game winner (2001 Astros) that had to come from 3 back of the Cubs at the ASB. And that year's St. Louis team was 8 back at the break and still finished with 93 wins as well.
Logic should tell you already that all four of the current contenders have a legitimate chance regardless of how they've played up to this point, and history only serves to back that up.
Friday, July 1, 2011
More NL Central comparisons
As we have basically reached the halfway point, here are more stats to consider. Keep in mind that the Brewers and Cardinals are tied for 1st, and the Reds are tied with the Pirates for 3rd.
May - 1 = tie (MIL and STL), 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = PIT, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL
ERA ranks by month
March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
May - 1 = PIT, 2 = MIL, 3 = STL, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL
So Cincinnati is on the upward trend in pitching, thanks mostly to getting healthy.
OBP by month
March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = CIN, 4 = PIT
May - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = PIT, 4 = MIL
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = PIT, 4 = STL
While the offense has been very inconsistent, overall it did better than these other contenders in June.
Winning percentage
March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = PITMay - 1 = tie (MIL and STL), 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = PIT, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL
Positional OBP among Central contenders
Ranking production (in terms of OBP) by position, among the four NL Central contenders
P: 1 = MIL, 2 = CIN
C: 1 = CIN, 2 = STL
1B: 1 = CIN, 2 = MIL
2B: 1 = MIL, 2 = CIN
3B: 1 = STL, 2 = CIN
SS: 1 = STL, 2 = PIT
LF: 1 = STL, 2 = MIL
CF: 1 = PIT, 2 = STL
RF: 1 = STL, 2 = CIN
St. Louis and Cincinnati both rank in the top 2 at 6 positions.
Milwaukee at 4 positions.
Pittsburgh at 2 positions.
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