The best- and worst-run MLB franchises

I've been looking at payroll vs. results from a variety of angles. Some argue, based on the Rays' ability to make the playoffs and the Marlins' two World Series titles, that the class disparity in MLB is overblown. While it's true that high-payroll teams can struggle if poorly managed and low-payroll teams can succeed with good management, scouting and a little luck, it's still much easier to win big if you pay big. I'll show a couple graphs to support my viewpoint in some upcoming posts. For now I wanted to focus on the teams that have been managed well and managed poorly.

I examined the period from 1998-2011. The dramatic payroll class disparity started forming in the mid-90s, but since 1998 was the most recent expansion and I wanted to average evenly across years for all teams, I started with that timepoint. I then broke the teams down into four tiers based on the average number of millions spent in payroll for each regular season win achieved.

Tier 1 ($1.1 million or more per win) - Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Cubs
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 7
Best-managed - Yankees (13 playoffs/4 titles), Red Sox (8/2)
Worst-managed - Mets (3/0), Cubs (4/0)

Tier 2 ($900,000 to 1.099 million per win) - Cardinals, Braves, Angels, Phillies, Giants, White Sox, Astros, Rangers, Orioles, Tigers, Mariners
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 4.36
Best-managed - Cardinals (8 playoffs/1 title), Braves (9/0), Angels (6/1)
Worst-managed - Orioles (0/0), Tigers (2/0), Mariners (2/0)

Tier 3 ($700,000 to 899,000 per win) - Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Indians, Blue Jays, Reds, Rockies, Brewers
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 2.57
Best-managed - Diamondbacks (5 playoffs/1 title)
Worst-managed - Blue Jays (0/0), Reds (1/0)

Tier 4 (less than $700,000 per win) - Twins, Athletics, Rays, Padres, Marlins, Nationals/Expos, Pirates, Royals
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 2.25
Best-managed - Twins (6 playoffs/0 titles), Athletics (5/0)
Worst-managed - Nationals (0/0), Pirates (0/0), Royals (0/0)

So during this 14-year period, if I had to rank the teams based on overall results achieved for money spent, I'd list them as follows.

The best:
1) Yankees
2) Cardinals
3) Twins
4) Braves
5) Red Sox
6) Diamondbacks
7) Athletics
8) Angels

The worst:
1) Orioles
2) Mets
3) Blue Jays
4) Cubs
5) Mariners
6) Tigers
7) Reds
8-10) Nationals/Pirates/Royals

Teams that don't appear on either list but are trending upward: Phillies and Rays (especially if either wins a title this season)
Teams that don't appear on either list but are trending downward: Dodgers, White Sox, Astros

Reds' 2011 offensive drop-off

An assertion commonly made about the failures of the 2011 Reds is that the lack of quality pitching was the primary reason. I wouldn't dispute any of the following:

- pitching was, and remains, a problem for making it to the postseason
- if the Reds were to make it back to the playoffs, they'd have even more problems because Cueto is the only guy who even comes close to measuring up with the top 3 of other staffs
- obtaining a #1 or #2 starter HAS to be an offseason priority

In spite of all this, I would make the argument that offense was a bigger determinant of the drop-off from 2010 to 2011. The simple counter-argument is "hey, they were second in the NL in runs per game, while the pitching staff was 12th in the league in ERA." I am more than aware of those numbers, but one thing I've harped on all season has been the variation from game to game. Overall the Reds have indeed scored a lot of runs, but they've also come up empty a lot.

Let's compare the Reds' hitting and pitching performances with 2010, and then with this year's NL playoff teams.

2011 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.13) - 41% (67 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 62% (100 of 162 games)

2010 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.33) - 49% (80 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 65% (106 of 162 games)

One important note is that virtually any team will have a higher "success rate" for pitching than hitting simply by nature of this mathematical approach. You can't read much into the comparison of hitting vs. pitching for one given team, but comparing across teams does give you a good idea of where they stand. The numbers above clearly show that hitting took a bigger dive than pitching.

More evidence:
- Pitching WAR actually went up from 2010 to 2011, from 7.5 to 10.2
- Offensive WAR went down dramatically, from 28.5 to 21.6
- Almost all positions saw a drop in OPS: C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF and CF. Only 2B and RF went up.

We all know the reasons why...injuries (Rolen and Cozart), backsliding performance (Janish and Stubbs), and easily foreseeable failure (Renteria and Gomes).

How the Reds rank this season compared to the playoff teams...

Successful hitting games:
St. Louis 75
Milwaukee 72
Cincinnati 67
Philadelphia 65
Arizona 65

Successful pitching/defense games:
Philadelphia 121
Milwaukee 104
Cincinnati 100
St. Louis 98
Arizona 97

Certainly, Cincinnati's numbers were buoyed a bit by the fact they allowed half the unearned runs (42) that St. Louis did (84) with its shoddy defense. Still, they don't appear to be dramatically behind in either category.

Some timeliness would certainly help - the Reds were by far the worst of these five teams in one-run games, and also failed to capitalize on good pitching performances when they got them, as seen here:

Winning percentage in games when allowing 3 or fewer runs:
Arizona .872 (68-10)
St. Louis .851 (63-11)
Milwaukee .828 (72-15)
Philadelphia .802 (81-20)
Cincinnati .701 (54-23)

Not that this prediction is particularly risky, but I'm highly confident that neither Arizona nor Milwaukee will come within 5 of this season's win totals in 2012. Arizona not only bested its Pythagorean expectation (88) by 6, but the numbers mentioned earlier for games with good pitching and hitting would suggest (by correlation) that they'd win far fewer. Milwaukee should still be good, but are more realistically an 88-90 win club with their current roster than a 96-win team. They might repeat, but it won't be as easy as this year.

I'll end this discussion with a comparison of WAR totals:
Philadelphia - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 30 for pitching = 52.2
Milwaukee - 24.3 for hitting/defense, 17.8 for pitching = 42.1
St. Louis - 30.0 for hitting/defense, 11.0 for pitching = 41
Arizona - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 13.7 for pitching = 35.8
Cincinnati - 24.8 for hitting/defense, 10.2 for pitching = 35

If you add these numbers to a "replacement level" squad that would win 30% (48.6) of its games, you would get the following expectations:

Philadelphia - 101 (actually won 102)
Milwaukee - 91 (actually won 96)
St. Louis - 90 (actually won 90)
Arizona - 84 (actually won 94, Pythag expectation was 88)
Cincinnati - 84 (actually won 79, Pythag expectation was 83)

One last prediction: If Cincinnati remains essentially the same squad next season, they should win 84-85 games but that won't be enough to compete for the playoffs. If they solve at least two of the three main problem positions (SS/3B/LF) they will compete for the division title but won't be able to win a playoff round. If they solve a couple of those positions AND add a high-caliber starting pitcher or two, they stand an excellent chance of making their first NLCS appearance since 1995.

2011 Reds with 1+ WAR change from 2010

The positive shifts in WAR from 2010 to 2011:
1) Leake -0.5 to 2.1
2) Cueto 2.0 to 4.3
3) Cordero 0.4 to 2.3
4) Phillips 2.6 to 4.2
5) Cairo 0.4 to 1.7

The negative shifts:
1) Bruce 4.6 to 1.3 (mostly due to drop in defensive value)
2) Rolen 3.5 to 0.6 (mostly due to injury)
3) Arroyo 2.1 to -0.5 (mostly due to...um...getting hammered almost every time he pitched)
4) Stubbs 5.2 to 3.0 (a combination of all the strikeouts and less defensive value)
5) Volquez 0.5 to -1.0
6) Maloney 0.4 to -0.8

The sum of all the changes listed here: -4.0 WAR

2011 Cincinnati Reds MVPs and LVPs

This one is based only on Wins Above Replacement.

Offensive WAR
MVP: Votto 5.9
LVP: Janish -1.3

Defensive WAR
MVP: Janish 1.3
LVP: Bruce -1.1 (one of the more surprising developments this year was his drop in defensive value)

Overall WAR
MVP: Votto 6.6
LVP: Francisco -0.4

Pitching WAR
MVP: Cueto 4.3
LVP: Volquez -1.0

10,000 wins

Since the Reds finished with only 79 wins in 2011, they're still 6 short of becoming the sixth team ever to win 10,000 games. Unfortunately that means they'll probably reach the milestone on the road in 2012. Unless they win all six of their games at home to start the season, it will happen some time during the ensuing 10-game road trip.

Worst pitching seasons since 1950

Yes, another negative post. Since the season was a disappointment, there will obviously be some of these. The focus of this one is Bronson Arroyo. He was, without a doubt, one of the most valuable pitchers for the Reds beginning in 2006. But this year, things fell apart in a big way.

The 46 HRs have been beaten to death, but did you know he's also one of only 16 Reds pitchers since 1950 to throw sufficient innings to qualify for the ERA title, and post negative WAR and WPA?

Thankfully, he didn't quite reach the pantheon of Red pitching suckitude. That's reserved for the following seasons:

1) Eric Milton, 2005. -2.3 WAR, -4.4 WPA. Both the worst ever by a qualifying Red pitcher. Also the worst ERA+ and BAA on the list. Nothing else even compares with this atrocious season. Finished with a record of 8-15 and 6.47 ERA in 186.1 IP, and gave up 40 homers (a Red record broken by Arroyo).

2) Herm Wehmeier, 1950. A 1.70 WHIP, 5.67 ERA, led the league in walks and wild pitches. Finished with 10 wins and 18 losses.

3) Tony Cloninger, 1969. Second worst on the list for WAR. Went 11-17 with a 5.03 ERA and only threw 13 quality starts out of his 34 total.

4) Danny Graves, 2003. Ah, the great failed experiment of moving Graves to a starting role, resulting in a 4-15 record and matching 5.33 ERA.

If you look at a bunch of the same key statistics I did for this list, and apply it to MLB as a whole, Milton's '05 ranks as the second worst since 1950. Only Jose Lima, in the exact same year but with Kansas City in the American League, produced an uglier piece of work.

Paul Janish's 2011 in perspective

I'm a fan of Cincinnati Reds players to a fault. Heck, I'll even forgive Mike Leake for his shopping habits. Much as I've tried to look past Janish's shortcomings at short (well...much more so at the plate than defensively, where he's fine), I had morbid curiosity get the better of me. I just had to examine how his 2011 season stands up historically.

I went to baseball-reference's season finder and used the following settings:
- at least 250 plate appearances (meaning the player was given the chance to really do damage)
- zero or negative WAR
- zero or negative WPA
- zero or negative base-out runs
- OPS+ of lower than 80

For the Cincinnati Reds from 1950 to 2011 (the only seasons available for some of the statistics), this search produced 54 results. Taking all the categories into account, I judged these five to be the worst of all time:

1) Tommy Helms (2B, 1970) - the worst WAR, WPA and base-out runs on the entire list. He actually won the Gold Glove at second base that year.

2) Bobby Tolan (CF/RF, 1973) - second worst WAR, third worst base-out runs, fifth worst WPA

3) Paul Householder (RF, 1982) - the second worst WPA and second worst base-out runs

4) Darrel Chaney (SS, 1973) - the worst batting average and worst OPS+. He was the backup to Concepcion, who appears three times on this list of 54 - but with nowhere close to the ineptitude of these top five.

5) Juan Castro (SS/UT, 2001) - second worst OPS+, third worst WAR

Thanks to a late-season offensive "burst" by Janish to raise his average to .214 and OPS+ to 43, he broke his way out of the bottom five. His season is still among the worst offensive displays ever by a Red, but not Hall of Shame-caliber.

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds relief pitchers

Requirements: 40+ IP, 80% or more in relief
Factors considered: end-of-season award voting, WAR, WPA, pitching runs, pitching wins, IS%, K/9, WHIP, ERA+, K/BB, HR/9

1) Ted Abernathy, 1967. Easily the all-time Reds relief leader in: WAR, pitching runs, pitching wins, and WPA. He also led the league in saves.

2) Jeff Shaw, 1997. Best strikeout-to-walk ratio on the list. Led the league in saves and ranks high in most categories considered - including fourth in WHIP, pitching wins and WPA.

3) Rob Dibble, 1990. Ranks second on the list in pitching runs and pitching wins, and high in a number of other categories.

4) Clay Carroll, 1972. Received votes for the Cy and MVP, with good reason. Second on the list in WPA. Led the league in saves.

5) John Franco, 1988. Received votes for MVP. Ranks in the top ten of numerous categories. Led the league in saves and games finished.

The best of the rest:
6) Scott Williamson, 1999. Rookie of the Year. Best categories: pitching runs, pitching wins.
7) Rawly Eastwick, 1976. Received votes for Cy and MVP.
8) Doug Blair, 1978. Second in WAR with 3.8
9) Sammy Ellis, 1964.
10) Danny Graves, 2000.

Others worth mentioning:
Rob Dibble, 1989
Rob Murphy, 1986
Jeff Shaw, 1996
Scott Sullivan, 1999
Randy Myers, 1990
Billy McCool, 1966

Most career WAR among Cincinnati Reds pitchers

This list doesn't discriminate between starters and relievers, because no one who pitched solely as a reliever accumulated enough WAR to make the top 10.

1) Noodles Hahn, 39.6 in 7 seasons
2) Jim Maloney, 35.1 in 11 seasons
3) Dolf Luque, 35 in 12 seasons
4) Jose Rijo, 33.7 in 10 seasons
5) Paul Derringer, 31.2 in 10 seasons
6) Bucky Walters, 31.2, in 11 seasons
7) Gary Nolan, 28.2 in 10 seasons
8) Mario Soto, 26.9 in 12 seasons
9) Joe Nuxhall, 25.4 in 15 seasons
10) Bob Purkey, 24.9 in 7 seasons
10) Bob Ewing, 24.9 in 8 seasons

If he stays around and stays healthy, it's likely we'll see Johnny Cueto on this list in a few years.

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds starting pitchers

Starting pitching is even more difficult to compare across eras. While stats like complete games may be valuable to a comparison of modern pitchers, obviously pitchers in the 1900s and 1910s will dominate the rankings. An extra problem is that the Cy Young award hasn't been around as long as the MVP award (only since 1956). I did what I could to even the playing field, giving extra weight to WAR and making some subjective judgments of what certain pitchers might have accomplished in today's game.

1) Bucky Walters, 1939. No Cincinnati Red has ever won a Cy Young Award, but Walters is the only one with an NL MVP. He led the league in wins (most ever by a Red pitcher), complete games and ERA+. That season he also accumulated 7.7 WAR.

2) Dolf Luque, 1923. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt...neither the MVP nor the Cy existed yet, but I'm sure he would've won one or both this season. After all, he led the league in wins, shutouts and ERA. He also posted 9.9 WAR, easily the highest ever by a Reds pitcher.

3) Jose Rijo, 1993. The second-highest pitching WAR ever by a Red - 8.6. He finished 5th in Cy voting and got some MVP votes. Led the league in strikeouts.

4) Mario Soto, 1983. Finished second in Cy voting. This season ranks him second among all Red starting pitchers in average game score, third in quality start percentage, and fourth in strikeouts.

5) Tom Seaver, 1977. Most of his best seasons were with the Mets, making him very similar to Ken Griffey, Jr., but his first (incomplete) season with the Reds was superb. He finished third in Cy voting after compiling 5.4 WAR in Cincinnati and 2.2 in New York. He led the league in WHIP and his 1977 season ranks first among all Reds pitchers in average game score.

6) Jim Maloney, 1965. 8.0 WAR. This season ranks third among Red pitchers in strikeouts and average game score.

7) Ewell Blackwell, 1947. 8.3 WAR.

8) Mario Soto, 1982. 7.0 WAR, most strikeouts ever by a Red pitcher.

9) Bob Purkey, 1962. 7.2 WAR, led the league in win percentage.

10) Noodles Hahn, 1902. He had some great seasons at the turn of the century for the Reds, and this one rated the best in terms of WAR (7.7).

Others worth mentioning:
Gary Nolan, 1967 and 1972
Jim Maloney, 1966
Bucky Walters, 1940
Noodles Hahn, 1901, 1903 and 1904
Fred Toney, 1915
Danny Jackson, 1988
Eppa Rixey, 1923 and 1925
Elmer Riddle, 1941

Most career WAR among Cincinnati Reds position players

These stats, as usual, have been collected from baseball-reference. Only seasons with the Reds are included.

1) Pete Rose - 74.6 wins above replacement in 19 seasons
2) Johnny Bench - 71.3 in 17 seasons
3) Barry Larkin - 68.9 in 19 seasons
4) Frank Robinson - 61.5 in 10 seasons
5) Joe Morgan - 61.3 in 8 seasons
6) Vada Pinson - 45.1 in 11 seasons
7) Tony Perez - 43.8 in 16 seasons
8) Edd Roush - 41.1 in 12 seasons
9) Heinie Groh - 38.7 in 9 seasons
10) George Foster - 38.1 in 11 seasons

11) Dave Concepcion - 33.6 in 19 seasons
12) Lonny Frey - 30.4 in 7 seasons
13) Ted Kluszewski - 29.7 in 11 seasons
14) Eric Davis - 29.4 in 9 seasons
15) Frank McCormick - 29.0 in 10 seasons
16) Ernie Lombardi - 27.1 in 10 seasons
17) Ken Griffey Sr. - 23.7 in 12 seasons
18) Adam Dunn - 22.2 in 8 seasons
19) Reggie Sanders - 21.6 in 8 seasons
20) Ival Goodman - 21.3 in 8 seasons

There you have it - 20 Reds position players with 20+ accumulated WAR. Soon to break on to this list (and hopefully sticking around in Cincinnati to reach the top ten) is Joey Votto (19.8 WAR). Rose, Bench and Larkin make a pretty awesome top 3 - clearly the kings of combined success and longevity in the Queen City. Then you have Robinson and Morgan, who dominate this list on a WAR-per-season basis and would easily be #1 and 2 if they'd spent their whole careers in Cincinnati.

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds right fielders

The last of positions 2 through 9...leaving only the pitching seasons to analyze next. The glory decade for right field was most definitely the 1960s.

1) Frank Robinson, 1962. Like Barry Larkin's 1996 season, his post-MVP year was better. This season ranks first among all Red RF seasons in WAR (8.5), runs (led the league), doubles (led the league), OPS (led the league) and slugging (led the league). Second in HR, BA and OBP.

2) Frank Robinson, 1961. His NL MVP season. 7.6 WAR, led the league in slugging and OPS. Both stats rank second to his 1962 season.

3) Pete Rose, 1969. 6.9 WAR. First among all Red RF seasons in batting average, hits and OBP. Led the league in runs scored and batting average. Won a Gold Glove.

The best of the rest:
4) Reggie Sanders, 1995. 6.7 WAR. Finished sixth in MVP voting.
5) Frank Robinson, 1964. 7.6 WAR. 4th in MVP voting.
6) Dave Parker, 1985. 2nd in MVP voting. Led the league in doubles and RBI.
7) Wally Post, 1955. 5.3 WAR. First among Red RF seasons in HR.
8) Pete Rose, 1970. Won a Gold Glove, finished 7th in MVP voting.
9) Babe Herman, 1932. 5.5 WAR. Led the league in triples.
10) Ken Griffey, 1976. Batted .336 for the World Series champs.

Others worth mentioning:
Harry Heilmann, 1930
Pete Rose, 1968
Ival Goodman, 1938 and 1939
Frank Robinson, 1965
Sam Crawford, 1901 and 1902

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds center fielders

The CF position is one where the Reds have had fairly sustained success, even if no one has won an MVP. In fact, six different decades are represented in this top ten.

1) Cy Seymour, 1905. Cy's numbers were ridiculous. He led the league in hits, doubles, triples, RBI, batting average, OBP, slugging and of course OPS. He also posted 8.4 WAR. Many of these statistics rank first all-time among Red CF.

2) Eric Davis, 1987. This season ranks him first all-time among Red CF in SLG and OPS, and second in HR and runs scored. He also won a Gold Glove, and accumulated 8.0 WAR, his personal best.

3) Vada Pinson, 1961. 7.4 WAR, Gold Glove, third in NL MVP voting. Led the league in hits, and had a .343 batting average.

4) Ken Griffey, Jr., 2000. Unfortunately his only excellent season as a Red. Most HR all-time by a Red CF, second in walks and RBI, 5.8 WAR. Of his top 12 WAR seasons, 11 were with Seattle.

The best of the rest:
5) Vada Pinson, 1963.
6) Vada Pinson, 1959.
7) Edd Roush, 1923.
8) Gus Bell, 1953.
9) Edd Roush, 1920.
10) Eric Davis, 1986.

Others worth mentioning:
Bobby Tolan, 1970 and 1972
Edd Roush, 1917 and 1919
Mike Cameron, 1999
Ken Griffey, Jr., 2005
Eric Davis, 1996

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds left fielders

On to Left Field, where the Redlegs have brought home 2 NL MVPs. That makes the first two choices pretty easy.

1) George Foster, 1977. NL MVP. 8.2 WAR. Led the league in HR, runs scored, RBI, and OPS. Ranks first among all Red LF in HR, RBI and OPS, and second in runs.

2) Pete Rose, 1973. NL MVP. 8.5 WAR. Led the league in hits and batting average. Ranks first among all Red LF in hits.

3) Frank Robinson, 1956. Rookie of the Year. 6.2 WAR. Led the league in runs scored, and his total from that season is the third highest among all Reds at the position.

4) Adam Dunn, 2004. The much-maligned Cowboy of the Clubhouse La-Z-Boys did have a couple valuable seasons, and this was one of them. 5.5 WAR. Ranks among all-time Red LF: second in HR, third in OPS, fourth in walks.

The best of the rest:
5) Adam Dunn, 2005
6) Pete Rose, 1972
7) Frank Robinson, 1957
8) Pete Rose, 1974
9) George Foster, 1976
10) George Foster, 1978

Others worth mentioning:
Eric Davis, 1986
Greg Vaughn, 1999
Pat Duncan, 1922
Bob Bescher, 1912
Mike Donlin, 1903

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds third basemen

This is the most interesting position so far. Like first base, there isn't a clear favorite. And it's also the only position other than CF without an NL MVP season from any Red. Moreover, the Cincinnati hot corner has been lacking in defensive prowess, as Scott Rolen (2010) became the first Red ever to win a Gold Glove at the position. Again, the rules: 120+ games played, at least 50% at that position. I examined conventional statistics, WAR, and awards. A lot of these decisions, especially Perez vs Rose and where to rank Groh, were very difficult.

1) Tony Perez, 1970. 6.7 WAR. First among Red 3B in HR and OPS. Second in RBI and WAR. Finished third in NL MVP voting.

2) Pete Rose, 1976. 6.7 WAR. First among Red 3B in runs, hits and batting average. Second in WAR. Finished fourth in NL MVP voting.

3) Heinie Groh, 1917. 6.9 WAR. He played in an entirely different era, so many of his counting stats don't measure up, but he really belongs in the top 3. Groh led the league in hits, doubles and OBP in 1917. This season ranks him 7th in hits and 5th in doubles among all Red third basemen.

The best of the rest:
4) Heinie Groh, 1919 - led the league in OPS, posted 6.2 WAR
5) Tony Perez, 1969 - second among Red 3B in HR, OPS. 5.6 WAR.
6) Pete Rose, 1975 - second among Red 3B in hits, doubles and walks. 4.4 WAR.
7) Deron Johnson, 1965 - first among Red 3B in RBI, fourth in MVP voting
8) Chris Sabo, 1988 - second among Red 3B in stolen bases, Rookie of the Year
9) Billy Werber, 1939 - led the league in runs scored, posted 4.5 WAR
10) Don Hoak, 1957 - third among Red 3B in OPS, led the league in doubles

Also worth mentioning:
Billy Werber, 1940 (5.0 WAR)
Chris Sabo, 1991 (4th among Red 3B in OPS, 4.1 WAR)
Heinie Groh, 1918 (led league in runs, doubles and OBP, 4.7 WAR)
Tony Perez, 1968 and 1971
Pete Rose, 1977 and 1978

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds shortstops

We continue around the horn to shortstop, where (near-)future Hall of Famer Barry Larkin reigns supreme. As usual, I examined players in history with at least 120 games played, and at least 50% of those as the position in question. I looked at a number of conventional stats, as well as WAR and any awards received. The final judgment was based on both objective rankings and subjective weighting, especially with respect to awards.

1) Barry Larkin, 1996. This wasn't his MVP season, but it was better in every way. 7.4 WAR (easily the best of his career or any Red SS in history). Ranks first in Red SS history for HR, runs, RBI, walks, and OPS. Won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and finished 12th in MVP voting. Became the first 30-30 shortstop in MLB history, and is still the only Red SS to hit 30 homers.

2) Barry Larkin, 1995. NL MVP, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger. First in Red SS history for stolen bases and batting average. 5.9 WAR.

The best of the rest:
3) Barry Larkin, 1998. 5.9 WAR, second among Red SS in batting average and OPS
4) Barry Larkin, 1999. 5.2 WAR, second among Red SS in runs and walks
5) Barry Larkin, 1988. 6.2 WAR, second among Red SS in hits
6) Dave Concepcion, 1974. 5.1 WAR, Gold Glove winner
7) Barry Larkin, 1991.
8) Barry Larkin, 1992.
9) Barry Larkin, 1990.
10) Dave Concepcion, 1979.

Others worth mentioning:
Roy McMillan 1956
Leo Cardenas 1965
Dave Concepcion 1976
Eddie Miller 1974
Felipe Lopez 2005

Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds second basemen

This position is another no-brainer (like Bench at catcher), considering Joe Morgan is arguably the best 2B in MLB history. From 1972 to 1976 his numbers were surreal, especially if you look at WAR. The only debate here is which season was superior - '75 or '76?

1) Joe Morgan, 1976. NL MVP. Led the league in OPS and WAR (10.0). #1 in Reds 2B history for RBI and OPS, #2 in Reds 2B history for batting average and homers. Also won a Gold Glove.

2) Joe Morgan, 1975. NL MVP. Led the league in walks, OPS and WAR (12.0). #1 in Reds 2B history for batting average, stolen bases and walks. #2 in Reds 2B history for OPS. Also won a Gold Glove.

3) Joe Morgan, 1973. Led the league in WAR (9.9). #2 in Reds 2B history for stolen bases. #3 in Reds 2B history for HRs. #4 in Reds 2B history for OPS. Also won a Gold Glove.

The best of the rest:
4) Joe Morgan, 1974
5) Pete Rose, 1965
6) Joe Morgan, 1977
7) Brandon Phillips, 2007
8) Joe Morgan, 1972
9) Johnny Temple, 1958
10) Pete Rose, 1966

Jay Bruce's Walkoff - Not Clutch?

The funny thing about walkoff homers is they aren't always (mathematically, anyway) all that "clutch." Before I get into this discussion, two disclaimers.

1 - Jay Bruce is a great talent and (barring something unexpected) worth every bit of his contract.

2 - Bruce has had some of the most memorable moments at bat and in the field during his time in Cincinnati.

But didn't last night's home run feel a little anti-climactic? Certainly not worthy of the same level of revelry afforded to walkoffs past, let alone division-clinching walkoffs.

There are three main reasons that some (or at least I) felt this way last night.

1 (the obvious) - the Reds aren't in any kind of race, except to finish at/above .500 (which would be really nice)

2 (also obvious) - after Cordero's blown save (first since the All Star Break) it felt like the Reds should have had the game wrapped up already

3 (less obvious) - the situation was not all that dire in terms of win probability

Just a reminder...each team can have anywhere between a 0 and 1 (or 0 and 100 in percentage terms) chance of winning at any moment in the game. Because the Reds were tied and Bruce was batting in the home half of the 11th, with nobody out, and Votto already on second base, they already had an 81% chance of winning.

There were all sorts of ways for them to deal the finishing blow. While it was not an absolute guarantee (especially for the 2011 edition of the Cincinnati Reds) any fan watching was fully expecting a Reds victory after a lead-off double. All this being said, it was pretty darn exciting to defeat the hated Cubs with a bullpen-seeking missile.

I took a look at the 68 total walkoff homers in MLB during 2011. Among them, Bruce's had the third-lowest Win Probability Added (0.19). The only two lower came with the bases loaded and 1 out, meaning there was an even higher expectation of victory already (83%, so the homers resulted in 0.17 WPA).

- You may recall that Ramon Hernandez's Opening Day blast and Brandon Phillips' bomb against the Cardinals were both very clutch. In fact, they're both among the MLB top 3 for walkoff homer WPA this season, with a value of 0.91.

- This was Bruce's third career walkoff home run, and he is now the active career leader over Votto (2) and Stubbs (2)

- Tony Perez (10) has the most all-time of any Red, followed by Adam Dunn (7) and Frank Robinson (6)

Top seasons of Cincinnati Reds first basemen

Continuing up the line from catcher, here are what I consider to be the top seasons (taking mostly offense only into consideration, except the inclusion of defense in overall WAR or winning a Gold Glove). The cutoffs: at least 120 games played in that season, and at least 50% of those at first base. For each, I provide a few of the most impressive statistics (all from baseball-reference of course).

1) Ted Kluszewski, 1954. NL-leading 49 homers (most all-time by a Red 1B). NL-leading 141 RBI (most all-time by a Red 1B). OPS of 1.049 (highest ever by a Red 1B). Absurd WAR of 8.1. Lost out on the MVP award to Willie Mays.

2) Joey Votto, 2010. Led the NL in OBP and SLG (so, obviously, OPS as well). Won the MVP award.

3) Frank McCormick, 1939. Led the league in hits and RBI. Only finished 4th in MVP voting, but would go on to win it in 1940.

The rest of the top ten:
4) Kluszewski, 1955 - led the league in hits
5) McCormick, 1940 - won the MVP, posted 6.0 WAR
6) Jake Daubert, 1922 - led the league in triples, second among Red 1B in RS and BA
7) Frank Robinson, 1959 (one of his non-outfield seasons)
8) Sean Casey, 1999
9) Kluszewski, 1953
10) Votto, 2011 - already 6.5 WAR, most walks ever by a Red

Reds 7 Cubs 2: The men behind the win 9/14/11

The Reds got a solid win, and Cueto took a few hundreths of a run off his ERA, but Johnny also exited with arm trouble in the 4th. Officially, he left with a "strained right lat." Clearly there is no need for him to pitch again in 2011 if there's any injury risk, and the real concern is whether the injury is anything that might linger or (heaven forbid) require surgery in the offseason. On to tonight's heroes:

1) Ramon Hernandez. Hit a 3-run blast in the bottom of the 2nd to put the Reds on the board first. It was all the offense they'd need.

2) Juan Francisco. Went 2 for 4, played great defense, and had a 2-run single in the third to really put things away early.

3) Johnny Cueto. Only lasted 3.2 innings, but hey, he's been unreal all year, and didn't give up any runs tonight as the offense cruised to an early lead.

4) The bullpen work of Ondrusek/Masset/Arredondo...LeCure got the win, but these three held the Cubs in check through the final 3 frames.

Tomorrow in the finale it's Homer Bailey and Randy Wells.

Top seasons of Cincinnati Reds catchers

No one in his or her right mind would dispute that Johnny Bench is the best catcher in Reds history, and arguably the greatest catcher in MLB history. Consider his statistical placement in the annals of Cincinnati baseball...11 of the top 20 HR seasons...11 of the top 20 RBI seasons...10 of the top 20 hit seasons...12 of the top 20 runs scored seasons...etc etc

I went to baseball-reference and singled out Reds from 1901 to 2011, playing at least 100 games in a season, with at least 50% of their appearances as a catcher. Here are what I found to be the top 3 seasons of all time:

1) Johnny Bench, 1970. He won the first of two NL MVP awards that year, and for good reason. Batted .293 with a league-leading 45 HR and a league-leading 148 RBI. Posted 6.5 WAR (actually only tied for his third best total in that category). He also received the third of his ten NL Gold Gloves. Unfortunately Bench did not hit well in either the NLCS victory over Pittsburgh or World Series loss to Baltimore that year (a combined 6 for 28 with 4 RBI).

2) Johnny Bench, 1972. His second MVP year. 40 HR, 125 RBI (both league-leading totals again). 9.1 WAR. Another Gold Glove. A slightly better postseason than in 1970 - 12 for 41 combined in NLCS vs Pittsburgh and WS loss to Oakland.

3) Johnny Bench, 1974. Fourth in MVP voting. A league-leading 129 RBI. A league-leading 315 total bases. Another Gold Glove. 7.6 WAR.

The best of the rest (players other than Bench):

Ernie Lombardi, 1938. Won the NL MVP. 19 HR and 95 RBI...NL-leading .342 average...5.3 WAR.

Others worth mentioning, in no particular order:
Smoky Burgess 1955
Bubbles Hargrave 1926
Ed Bailey 1956
Eddie Taubensee 1999
Ray Mueller 1944

Reds 2 Cubs 1: The men behind the win 9/13/11

The Reds bounced back from an ugly night in Game 1 of this Cubs series, as Mike Leake delivered another gem and was ultimately rewarded with his 12th win in his final start of 2011.

1) Leake - 8 IP, only 1 run allowed on a GIDP. The Reds still didn't give him any room for error, but luckily he avoided the no-decision he was stuck with in Chicago after LaHair's 9th-inning blast. Mike also scored the the run that proved decisive after reaching on a fielder's choice.

2) Brandon Phillips. His leadoff homer in the first inning was the only power seen all night. In the past 11 games where the Reds hit leadoff home runs, they're 9-2, with eight one-run victories. Strange coincidence.

3) Edgar Renteria. 3 for 4 with the only other RBI. One of the few guys who wasn't owned all night by Ryan Dempster.

4) Francisco Cordero recorded his 33rd save with a 1-2-3 ninth.

Red LOBster of the night: Jay Bruce. Left 7 on to go along with his three K's.

Ranking the Reds' Starting Pitching

By median game score:
1) Cueto 62
2) Bailey 57
3) Leake 54.5
4) Willis 52
5) Wood 49.5
6) Arroyo 46
7) Volquez 44

By percentage of starts with game scores of 40+ (keeping the team in the game)
1) Cueto 91
2) Leake 88
3) Willis 83
4) Volquez 77
5) Arroyo 76
6) Wood 75
7) Bailey 68

By ERA:
1) Cueto 2.36
2) Leake 4.00
3) Bailey 4.34
4) Wood 4.92
5) Willis 5.04
6) Arroyo 5.28
7) Volquez 5.80

By xFIP:
1) Leake 3.65
2) Cueto 3.86
3) Bailey 3.89
4) Willis 4.07
5) Volquez 4.22
6) Arroyo 4.52
7) Wood 4.60

By SIERA:
1) Leake 3.57
2) Willis 4.12
3) Cueto 4.13
4) Volquez 4.26
5) Bailey 4.37
6) Wood 4.39
7) Arroyo 4.41

By WAR (extrapolated to 35 starts)
1) Cueto 4.4
2) Bailey 2.4
3) Wood 2.2
4) Leake 2.0
5) Willis 1.8
6) Volquez -0.6
7) Arroyo -1.1

Composite rankings
1) Cueto 1.5
2) Leake 2.2
3) Bailey 3.7
4) Willis 3.8
5) Wood 5.2
6) Volquez 5.5
7) Arroyo 6.2

It's funny how closely these final numbers resemble each pitcher's ideal role. Cueto has pitched like an ace, but is likely something between a 1 and a 2 on a true contender. Leake looks like a 2nd or 3rd starter. Bailey and Willis are good enough to be 4th (or 5th) starters - but Bailey really needs to reduce the percentage of very poor outings. And the other three (if they continue to pitch as they have in 2011) don't belong in the rotation.

Pitch type values for the four Red regulars

Fangraphs has all kinds of handy stats, including sortable pitch type values. Only four Reds have accumulated sufficient at-bats to really form the basis for judgment in 2011 (or to "qualify for the batting title"), and you probably know which ones - Votto, Phillips, Stubbs and Bruce.

Fastballs:
Votto is 2nd best in MLB
BP, Stubbs and Bruce are all moderately good

Sliders:
Bruce is 6th best in MLB
Votto is neutral
Stubbs and BP are both terrible

Cutters:
Votto and BP are both in the top 30 of MLB
Bruce is moderately good
Stubbs is terrible

Curveballs:
Votto is #37 in MLB
Stubbs is neutral
Bruce is moderately bad
BP is terrible

Changeups:
Votto, Bruce and BP are all moderately good
Stubbs is terrible

Reds who love/hate GABP

Most teams play better at home for obvious reasons. And just about any hitter would prefer to blast away in a place like Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark, where homers come easy. But strangely, 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto is not such a hitter. For his career, he hits 32 points higher on the road. In spite of the slightly diminished home run totals, he hits a lot more doubles and singles in road games. Thank goodness the Reds can rely on his bat on the road (as they did last night against the Cubs), because most of his teammates really scuffle...

Here's a list of some Reds with dramatically (and consistently) better averages at GABP:
Jay Bruce (47 points higher for his career, 23 more home runs at home)
Drew Stubbs (56 points higher for his career, 13 more home runs at home)
Ramon Hernandez (+42 in 2009, +55 in 2010, and +129 in 2011)

Ryan Hanigan is +37 at home for his career, in spite of being +64 on the road in 2011.

Paul Janish was far better away in 2010, but is far better at home in 2011. All in all he averages out to about a .220 lifetime hitter no matter the location, so his splits hardly even merit discussion.

Reds 4 Cubs 2: The men behind the win 9/6/11

Mike Leake's sprint to victory turned into a 13-inning marathon for the Reds. It was frustrating to watch, but worth it in the end.

The heroes:

1) Mike Leake. One mistake pitch to Bryan LaHair, resulting in a 2-run homer with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th to tie things up, meant Leake would not get his much-deserved 2-hit shutout. After a single by Alfonso Soriano in the second (he was erased the very next batter on a Marlon Byrd GIDP), Leake didn't give up a hit again until a cheap infield single in the bottom of the 9th. In between, only two guys reached base - Darwin Barney on catcher's interference, and Soriano on an HBP (Byrd again doubled him up in the 8th). This was true domination by Leake, and everyone in Reds country was disappointed for him when LaHair's blast sailed out to right field.

2) Joey Votto. If not for Leake's gem, this guy would be the clear #1. He provided two of the three RBIs on the night (Mesoraco's GIDP means no RBI for the second of the four runs). Both came on doubles to drive in Dave Sappelt - one in the sixth to put the Reds ahead 1-0, one in the thirteenth to put the Reds ahead 3-2. Both times he broke a long-standing offensive malaise.

3) Dave Sappelt. He got on base 4 of 6 times, and was the key star other than Votto in a manner similar to the Alonso/Sappelt comeback game in Miami. Two doubles, 1 single and a walk. Scored both go-ahead runs on Votto doubles, motoring around the bases like a madman.

4) Sam LeCure. He pitched to one batter, but I'll admit I thought things were over in the bottom of the 10th. The Cubs had all the momentum, and thanks to Nick Masset, they had built a scary situation - bases loaded, 1 out. Enter LeCure to face Jeff Baker. GIDP, inning over.

Honorable mention to Francisco Cordero (1-2-3 for the save in the 13th) and Aroldis Chapman (1.1 scoreless, got the Reds out of Arredondo's mess in the 11th, got the win).

No Red LOBsters worth mentioning...in fact, the Reds went 5 for 13 with RISP so I can't complain.

Tomorrow for all the marbles and a potential fourth straight road series win, it's ace Johnny Cueto vs the often-irritating Ryan Dempster at 8:05 ET. There are some subplots to this one. Can Cueto maintain his lead in the ERA "race" and finally get to 10 wins? If the Reds don't break through against Dempster, can they do so against a quartet of Cub relievers who have given them fits in 2011? In 27 combined innings against Samardzija, Wood, Marmol and Marshall, the Reds have scored only 6 earned runs (2.00 ERA) and struck out 33 times. Finally, the ever-present questions about the youngsters - which ones will play, and which ones will make the most of their opportunities? So far, everyone has contributed but everyone has also shown weaknesses or inconsistencies in some aspect of the game. There is definitely reason for hope in 2012 but the lineup for next year (other than the obvious mainstays) is still completely TBD.

Reds 3 Cardinals 2: The men behind the win 9/4/11

It may not mean much in light of the abomination of a series versus the Phillies which preceded it, but a series win on the Cardinals' home turf is always a welcome sight. In fact it was the first series win in St. Louis since a successful sweep in June of 2006, a span of 12 series including two sweeps, nine times that they lost 2 of 3, and one split of a 4-gamer in 2009.

The heroes today:

1) Juan Francisco. It's too early to judge but he's certainly had a nice first 4 games back in MLB. He went 4 for 5 with the game-winning, 2 out RBI today off Fernando Salas in the top of the 10th inning, ending 5 straight innings of nail-biting scoreless baseball.

2) Bronson Arroyo. A no-decision wasn't proper reward for his effort, scattering 10 hits over 8 innings and leaving the Reds tied 2-2. He struck out 5 and didn't walk a batter. Jon Jay got to him for a solo shot in the 1st, and Descalso had an RBI triple in the 4th to tie it, but Arroyo kept it that way through the next 4 innings.

3) Edgar Renteria. You know it was a slow day for offensive production (not for hits but for runs) when one of the top performers struck out three times. But his two-run dong in the top of the first off Edwin Jackson was the Reds' only regulation tally.

4) Francisco Cordero. Pitched a 1-2-3 10th inning for his 30th save.

Honorable mention to BP for going 2 for 4, getting on base 3 of 5 times in the leadoff spot, and raising his average to .301.

Red LOBster of the day: Ryan Hanigan (6 LOB). He had three different opportunities to hit with men on 1st and 3rd and 2 out (in the 6th, 8th and 10th innings) and came up empty each time.

Next up: 3 games in Chicago. In the first one, the Reds might try to get Willis a win for the first time in a Cincinnati uniform.

Hot and Cold by WPA

WPA is Win Probability Added. For any play, this ranges from -1 to 1, with most values close to zero. Like many other statistics, it's readily available and sortable on fangraphs.com.

Joey Votto is the leader in all of MLB in positive WPA accumulated (15.45), and second in overall WPA (add in his negative outcomes) to Bautista. For reference, he was second last year in MLB to Miguel Cabrera in both positive and overall WPA.

This metric points out the inconsistency of Bruce, Phillips and Stubbs - the only other Reds with "strangle-holds" on their respective positions, such that they have had opportunities to accumulate plenty of positive and negative WPA.

The three are ranked as follows (on fangraphs) in MLB for 2011 +WPA:
Bruce - 15th
Phillips - 30th
Stubbs - 44th

But they nearly (and in the case of Stubbs, fully) offset these positive outcomes with negative ones, as seen in their rankings for negative WPA:
Stubbs - 3rd in MLB
Bruce - 5th
BP - 15th

Ryan Hanigan: Harbinger of Victory?

Scott Rolen was a great catalyst for the 2010 Reds' offense. And there is no doubt that Joey Votto is the greatest offensive force on this team, and one of the great offensive talents in all of MLB.

Then you have a guy like Ryan Hanigan, who puts up solid (for a catcher) but unspectacular offensive numbers. Take heed when he produces, though, as the Reds are (all records for 2010 and 2011 combined):

9-0 when he homers
37-8 when he scores a run
25-9 in his multi-hit games
17-1 in his multi-RBI games

To some extent, there's an obvious explanation. If a bottom-of-the-order guy is racking up hits and run production, it's often because the game is a blowout. But that explanation only takes you so far, and doesn't fully account for the records above.

Here are some other fairly interesting Reds situational records (retrieved from baseball-reference):

24-4 in 2010/11 when Rolen has multiple RBIs
56-23 in 2010/11 when Rolen scores a run
13-4 in 2011 when Stubbs scores multiple runs
13-4 in 2011 when BP has multiple RBIs
8-0 in 2011 when Bruce steals a base

I find these splits (generally) to be more informative than simply "records in starts" because those are meaningless in the abundant cases where that particular player did not contribute much/anything to the victory. Want a perfect example? The Reds are 44-36 this year in Janish's starts, and it's not like he's been a catalyst. As with any numbers, they have to be considered in context of other numbers as well as detailed observations of the games.

Reds 5, Nationals 4: The Most Dangerous Canadian

The Reds got back above .500 in style with their second walk-off win of the series and a sweep of Washington. Johnny Cueto is still stuck on 9 wins in spite of his 2.05 ERA, but only positive vibes surround this team right now on its current 4-game win streak.

1) Joey Votto. A home run to begin the Reds' scoring in the 1st, and another in the bottom of the 14th. Neither one cleared the wall by much, but they all count the same. Well, a solo shot doesn't count the same as a grand slam, but you get my meaning.

2) Yonder Alonso. The guy never gets to play, but he hits and hits and hits when he does. The pinch-hit tying shot in the bottom of the 9th was ridiculously clutch.

3) Jose Arredondo. Held the Nats scoreless for 3 straight extra innings of relief (11th-13th).

4) Johnny Cueto. Scattered 9 hits over 7 innings and recorded a career-high 11 strikeouts (previously mowed down 10 twice, both times in 2008). Walked only 1, which was a welcome sight after his control problems in Miami, although he also hit two batters, so maybe that's a reach.

Honorable mention: Ryan Hanigan (reached base 5 of 6 times), BP (another multi-hit day in the leadoff spot), Bill Bray (got the win with a scoreless 14th).

Red LOBster: Jay Bruce left a whopping 8 on in one game! We'll forgive him thanks to his homer in the 4th.

Reds Sac Up, Beat Nats 6-3: The men behind the win 8/27/11

The story tonight? Sacrifice flies. 3 of them in one game is a welcome sight for Reds fans accustomed to failure in clutch situations this season. This was only the 34th time in Reds history that the team got three SFs in one game.

1) Brandon Phillips. He continues to dominate the leadoff spot, and is now 19 for 43 in his 10 games since re-assuming the position. This is the first 10 game hitting streak for a Red leadoff man since Willy Taveras in 2009, who hit in 14 games in a row (going 24 for 59 overall) from 4/29 to 5/13 and then proceeded to absolutely suck the rest of the season. But back to BP...after tonight's 2 for 4 performance, with 2 more runs scored and another RBI, his average is dangerously close to .300. The only negative: he was charged with his 6th error of the season.

2) Mike Leake. The team leader in wins (11-8 record now) turned in another quality start. The two solo bombs served up to Werth and Ramos in the third were frustrating, but he settled in, battling through a tough 4th and limiting the Nats to 2 runs in 6 innings. There is really no question - he has been the second most reliable starter behind Cueto.

3) Drew Stubbs. Went 3 for 3 and had one of the sacrifice flies, giving the Reds a 4-2 lead in the bottom of the third. It was his eighth game of the season with 3 or more hits.

4) Francisco Cordero. Coming off a shaky performance in the Marlins finale, he buckled down for a 1-2-3 ninth in this one and is now 12 for 12 in save opportunities since the All-Star Break. 29 of 34 for the season.

Having already locked up their third series win in a row (!) and finally battled back to .500 (!) the Reds go for a sweep tomorrow with a pitchers' duel - Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto take the mound at GABP. This is only the second time all year the Reds have won 3 or more series in a row; they won 5 in a row in May (HOU, @CHC, @HOU, STL, CHC).

Reds 8 Marlins 6: The men behind the win 8/23/11

Let's get all the bad news out of the way first:

- Cueto wasn't sharp: he gave up 6 walks for only the third time ever, and as his pitch count mounted he finally melted down in the 5th after some admirable escapes. Still have to love the guy, he's amazing.

- Hernandez and Janish combined for 10 LOB (co-Red LOBsters of the night), 6 of those in one hideous inning (the 6th) where the Reds loaded 'em up with nobody out and didn't score.

- LeCure AND Masset continued their August struggles, getting tagged for 3 more runs in relief.

Gee, with all that it sounds like a loss, but it wasn't. So on to the heroes:

1) None other than Yonder Alonso. He was given a chance to start in his return to Miami, and made the most of it with 3 hits (1B, 2B, HR) and 4 RBI including the 2 that provided the final margin in the Reds' awesome rally in the top of the 9th. For the second straight game, the Reds rallied by making mincemeat of a usually-tough closer (Hanrahan Sunday, Nunez tonight).

2) Another youngster, Dave Sappelt. Unlike Alonso, he had been shaky since his call-up...but tonight was fantastic. 3 hits, including the 2-run double that tied it in the 9th to set the stage for Alonso. If he can give us more nights like this, he'll solidify his spot in the outfield for 2012.

3) Francisco Cordero. He was horrendous in the Milwaukee series right before the break, but consider his stats since then: 14 appearances (15 IP) with only 1 run allowed, and 10 for 10 in save opportunities. Tonight was another shutdown performance to end the slugfest.

4) Jay Bruce. His 2-run blast in the top of the 7th came in an inning that had felt dead (until Sappelt's infield single with 2 outs), and with the Reds' chances for a win fading. That cut the Marlins' lead to 5-4 and the rest is history.

Honorable mention to BP, who continues to rake this month and has his average all the way up to .294. He's been a beast since moving to the leadoff spot.

Random MLB Umpire Facts

- There are 17 MLB crews consisting of four umpires each. At any given time, 15 are working and 2 are on vacation.

- In 2000 they consolidated AL and NL umpires. Each crew travels around randomly, with its advance schedule kept (mostly) secret by MLB for various reasons including gambling and personal safety.

- Because each crew works about 140 games, each umpire will be behind home plate about 35 times a season, and therefore see each MLB team an average of 2-3 times. Obviously due to scheduling quirks and other issues, sometimes a team gets a particular home plate umpire zero times, or even seven or eight in a year. It used to be much more common to see one umpire that frequently.

- A few extremely hitter-friendly umpires: Tim Tschida (very few Ks, lots of BBs, and lots of runs), Tim McClelland (most runs per game), Dana DeMuth (highest percentage of OVER on betting lines), Joe West

- A few pitcher-friendly umpires: Lance Barksdale, Vic Carapazza, Gary Darling, CB Bucknor

- If you're a Cincinnati Reds fan, two guys you don't want to see spooning with the catcher are Laz Diaz and Mark Wegner. For no known reason, both guys have it out for the Reds, who are 6-23 all-time with Diaz behind the plate and 5-24 all-time with Wegner. Diaz has already dropped three more Ls on the Reds in 2011, while Wegner (thankfully) has had a limited schedule due to a leg injury in May and hasn't seen the Reds yet. Obviously the players are the biggest deciding factor in any game, but when numbers are as statistically significant as with these two umps, you have to wonder.

Sources for my research: baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, thespread.com

The men behind the win, 8/21/11

That was huge (that's what Dusty said).

The Reds just broke an unfortunate streak of 6 consecutive road series losses (dating back to the 2-1 series victory over Tampa at the end of June). And they did so in stirring comeback fashion, after blowing a lead of their own.

This was the 9th game this month alone where the Reds tied the game and blew the lead the very next half-inning, or took a lead and blew it the very next half-inning. Obviously it didn't look good when Leake coughed up the 2-run shot to Garrett Jones, creating a 4-3 deficit in the bottom of the 6th before a brief rain delay.

Thankfully, the Reds' offense was actually up to this challenge against solid closer Joel Hanrahan, starting with a single by Frazier. Here are the players of the game:

1) Ramon Hernandez. After a Stubbs flyout and Hanigan walk to move Frazier to second, Ramon (pinch-hitting for light-hitting Paul Janish) struck the first blow of the 9th with a single to tie it at 4. Then in the bottom half, he came up just as clutch, gunning down Josh Harrison at second base for the first out. By the way: Clint Hurdle didn't like the call. That loomed even larger when Neil Walker followed with a double.

2) Jose Arredondo. 2 scoreless innings - a welcome oasis in an August desert of bullpen failures. In August he has now pitched 9.2 innings, given up only 2 runs and recorded 12 strikeouts.

3) Joey Votto. He provided the only offense prior to the 9th with a 3-run homer to right-center in the top of the 6th.

4) This one is tough, because all three of these guys had their ups and downs today, so they'll have to split the honor. Cordero got the save, BUT he almost blew it with the tying run reaching third. Phillips got the game-winning RBI, BUT it was on a fielder's choice AND he left 5 on base. Leake kept the Reds close, BUT it wasn't a quality start.

The Reds are back to 3 under .500 (62-65), 4.5 back of the Cardinals who are the only realistic target for passing this season. Now comes a day off and a trip to Miami for 3 games.

Bad offense, meet bad bullpen

If you watched today's game on FOX, you heard Mitch Williams blaming the Reds' woes on pitching, because that's the "intelligent" thing for an analyst to say. As I've bemoaned on this blog the past couple months, the offense has been the real problem, and it's been that way the entire season. Eliminating wins where both the offense and pitching/defense were good, and losses where both phases were bad, you get:

March/April:
3 "hitting wins" and 6 "hitting losses" Score: -3
3 "pitching wins" and 3 "pitching losses" Score: 0

May: Hitting -2, Pitching 0

June: Hitting -7, Pitching +3

July: Hitting -4, Pitching +1

August so far: Hitting -2, Pitching +2

Unfortunately, this month we've had a new problem arise: the bullpen. It performed admirably through July, and still has an ERA half a run lower than last season, but has completely fallen off the table in August with an ERA near 6.

Ondrusek, Bray, LeCure and Masset have all had an atrocious August, and even Chapman imploded in today's game. Only the much-maligned Francisco Cordero has been consistent, and Arredondo has done okay as well.

Want something positive? Although it's not, and shouldn't be, his natural spot in the order, BP has been ridiculous in his 3 games back in the leadoff spot. 9 for 13 and a walk, 1 home run and 4 RBI.

Dontrelle Willis, meanwhile, has thrown 6 quality starts among his 8 total this season, and is still winless. See what I mean about offense?

The men behind the win 8/19/11

Reds 11, Pirates 8.

This one was not pretty, but it had a few worthy heroes.

1) Ryan Hanigan. Continued his hot streak with the bat...now 8 for his last 12 with 8 RBI. Hit a solo shot to give the Reds a 3-2 lead, then tacked on insurance runs with a 2-run single in the top of the 9th that provided the final score. Also tagged two guys out at home in crucial situations, and helped Bailey work out of a couple tough jams.

2) Drew Stubbs. What? Yes he only went 1 for 5 at the plate, left a team-leading 5 on base, struck out twice and grounded into a double play. BUT he had a huge catch to end the 4th, preserving a 2-2 tie, and then topped that by initiating a double play to end the 8th, keeping the 8-8 tie intact.

3) Brandon Phillips. He might not be the prototypical lead-off guy, especially with no base-stealing ability (where did that go?) but he sure has done his job in the first two games back in that spot (first time in 2011). 6 for 9 with 5 RBI and a walk in the 2 games. A 3-run bomb in the 5th that sure seemed like the nail in the coffin at that juncture.

4) Francisco Cordero. Eight different pitchers took the mound for the Reds, and only two kept a clean slate (both in terms of runs charged and inherited runners scored). One was Chapman, who only had to work 1/3 of an inning. The other was Cordero, who ended the Pirates' streak of scoring in 5 straight innings by retiring Brandon Wood (previously 2 for 3 with 3 RBI), Ronny Cedeno (previously 2 for 4) and Xavier Paul (previously 1 for 1).

Reds-Nationals Game 124 Preview

Tonight, for all the marbles in a relatively meaningless series, it's Bronson Arroyo vs Jordan Zimmermann.

Nothing new to tell you on Arroyo...either he'll be homer-happy (16 HR allowed in 9 losses) or keep it mostly in the yard (7 in 7 wins). He's already allowed a personal record of 33 this season.

The guy most likely to beat up on him: Ryan Zimmerman (.350 in 21 AB vs Arroyo)

The guy most likely to leave the park against him: Rick Ankiel (3 HR in 21 AB vs Arroyo)

Hot Reds in their last 10 games: Votto (.313, 3 HR), Bruce (.378, 5 HR)

Cold Reds in their last 10 games: Phillips (.200), Hanigan (.192), Janish (.143)

Hot Nats in their last 10 games: Zimmerman (.324, 3 HR), Morse (.385, 3 HR)

Cold Nats in their last 10 games: Werth (.222), Espinosa (.225), Gomes (.185)

A record night of home runs in Cincinnati

If you haven't had your fill of meaningless statistics yet, here come a few more.

The Reds scored all 13 runs via home run last night. The only game in history (at least verifiable on baseball-reference) to outdo that was 4/29/80 when the Brewers scored all 14 off home runs.

Of the 76 times in history that a team has homered 7+ times, the Reds are responsible for the most of any franchise (10), including 5 in the past 4 seasons. They did it three times in 2008, and of course had the July 4th massacre of the Cubs in Wrigley last year.

And the most trivial note of all...the 1 runner left on base by the Reds last night is the fewest ever by a team hitting 7 or more home runs in a game.

Reds with 4+ RBI

Jay Bruce's 4 RBI game was the 9th of his career and 12th by a Red this season.

The all-time Reds leaders in games with 4+ RBI:

Bench 51 (including 7 three times, 6 twice, and 5 eight times)

Foster 34

Perez 31

Robinson 28 (54 for his whole career)

Dunn, McCormick 25

Kluszewski 24

Parker, Davis 23 (Parker had 50 in his career)

Griffey 22 (he had 45 with Seattle for a ridiculous total of 67)

The current Red with the most is Votto (14)

Reds' offense: MLB best and worst stats and splits

Categories where the Reds are in the best ten in MLB offensively:
5th in Runs Scored
6th in Home Runs
9th in OPS
8th in OBP
6th in BB
4th lowest GIDP


Categories where the Reds are in the worst ten:
8th most strikeouts
21st in stolen bases
8th most times caught stealing
27th in triples


Splits in the best ten:
2nd in BA against left-handed starters
2nd in BA as lefties against lefties
3rd in BA as lefties against righties
4th in BA as righties against lefties
2nd in BA in day games
7th in BA at home
4th in BA against "power" pitchers
5th in BA in "medium leverage" situations
10th in BA in "low leverage" situations
6th in BA with 1 out
4th in runs scored in the 4th inning
6th in runs scored in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings
5th in runs scored in the 9th inning
2nd in BA as non-starters
6th in BA in the month of May
5th in BA with a runner on 2nd, and with runners on 1st and 2nd
7th in BA with runners on 1st and 3rd



Splits in the worst ten:
21st in BA in night games
25th against "finesse" pitchers
24th in BA on bunts
25th in BA on line drives (unlucky?)
24th in BA leading off the game
21st in OBP leading off innings
25th in BA against groundball pitchers
29th in BA in "high leverage" situations
25th in BA after 0-2 count
29th in BA with bases loaded
25th in BA with 2 outs and RISP
2nd in GIDP with bases loaded
23rd in BA with runners on 2nd and 3rd
3rd most strikeouts with bases loaded
6th highest LOB/game (and worst in MLB for this stat on the road)
26th in runs scored in the third inning
27th in runs scored in the eighth inning (last night was a nice exception)
27th in sacrifice flies on the road
28th in BA in the month of August


So in spite of the first set of stats, which sound promising, you can see why (lack of clutch hitting) the Reds are so poor in 1-run games, and why their losses are more often due to hitting than pitching. The Reds will score ten runs in one game, and then go completely to sleep for a few days in a row.

To update an earlier statistic, in their 61 losses:
- the Reds' pitching and defense have given up more than league average runs/game only 32 times
- the Reds have failed to score league average runs/game 49 times

Likewise, the pitching gets too little credit for the wins. In the 58 so far:
- the Reds have scored at least league average runs/game 41 times
- the Reds have held the opposition below league average 47 times

So in all the 119 games combined, the Reds' offense has done its job 53 times (45%), and the pitching/defense 76 times (64%).

Positional and batting order OPS for 2011

1) Fielding positions where the Reds are above MLB average for OPS: C, 1B, 2B, CF, RF, PH

Note: The overall number for CF is skewed upward by the select few games where Heisey started and blasted some home runs. Stubbs is actually below league average for the position (.714, compared to .742)

2) Fielding positions where the Reds are below MLB average for OPS: SS, 3B, LF

Note: All of these should come as little surprise, but thanks to Cairo at third offsetting Rolen's number, the Reds were almost dead-even with league average at the position (.691). Gomes' OPS in left was significantly better than Lewis or Heisey.

3) Batting order positions where the Reds are above MLB average for OPS: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th

Note: Not only has Bruce been much better than average when batting 5th, but Gomes was above average too at .803.

4) Batting order positions where the Reds are below MLB average for OPS: 1st, 4th, 6th

Note: Stubbs' .715 is only a hair lower than league average when batting leadoff. Bruce, BP and Rolen have all failed to produce up to league average when batting cleanup, although Rolen was by far the worst with an OPS of .551. One more bizarre Gomes note...his .876 OPS in the 6th spot is better than anyone else on the team with significant time there.

MLB rankings of these stats

C - 9th
1B - 4th
2B - 10th
3B - 17th
SS - 24th
LF - 21st
CF - 11th
RF - 7th
P - 6th
DH - 9th
PH - 2nd

Leadoff - 15th
2 - 12th
3 - 2nd
Cleanup - 26th
5 - 8th
6 - 19th
7 - 10th
8 - 6th

All stats from baseball-reference

The men behind the win, 8/12/11

What do you know? Another win streak. Great to see some late-inning resilience from the bunch. I had a feeling before Bruce's AB he might pull some magic like that.

1) Jay Bruce. Can't give this to anyone else but him after his beyond-clutch 3-run blast in the 8th to win it. 4 of the 5 RBIs in the game, and on fire of late.

2) Bronson Arroyo. Sure, it was the Padres, he didn't get the win, and he made TWO errors, but the guitarist only gave up two runs in 6 innings to keep the Reds hanging around.

3) Drew Stubbs. I think every Reds fan was on edge during his 7th inning AB with Cairo on third and 1 out, thinking "please just hit a fly ball." He did better than that, with a hard single up the middle.

4) Bill Bray. Only got one out, but it was a big one with runners on 2nd and 3rd in the top of the 8th, keeping the deficit at 1. He was mopping up for Sam LeCure, who's been a little too generous with the mustache rides lately (9 runs and 7 walks in his 7 August innings)

And get this - while they only got 5 hits and produced 8 overall baserunners, the Reds only stranded 3 all game. No LOBster Kings this evening, thanks to Bruuuuuce and Dreeeewww.

The men behind the win, 8/11/11

With hopes for the playoffs all but dashed already, the remaining goals for this season include salvaging respectability (for a team too talented to finish below .500 or so many games out of first) and developing a clearer picture for 2012. One guy we almost never have to worry about is Cueto, who helped the Reds split a 4-gamer with a team that's owned them for a while.

1) Johnny Cueto. No complete game, but a really strong bounce-back performance after getting manhandled in Chicago (because of chicken wings?). 7 IP, 9 strikeouts. No runs allowed, only 3 hits and 2 walks. Finally picked up his 8th win. He won't beat Halladay for the Cy but he deserves second place in the voting.

2) Jay Bruce. The only Red with 2 hits, got the game's first RBI, and his double was one of only 2 hits the team collected after the first inning even if it didn't result in anything. He also had to sprinkle in a couple Ks, but Chacin is tough.

3) Aroldis Chapman. Not one of his easier innings of late, but he still ran his scoreless inning streak to 13.2. He has 3 walks in his last 4 innings, and hopefully that's not a sign of more control trouble ahead.

4) Joey Votto. Nothing stellar, but he got things started with his (ultimately) very important 2-out double in the first, and finished the game by snagging a line drive.

This loss brought to you by the number 10

- the wonderful (of late) Reds pitching gave up 10 runs

- all 10 Rockies runs were scored from non-scoring position (thanks to 4 different 2-run homers with a man on first)

- this is the 10th time this season the Reds have allowed 10 or more runs in a game

- the 28 runs allowed in 3 days are the first time since August 23rd-25th of '10 (versus the Giants)

and most importantly:

- the Reds are now a hopeless 10 games out

1-run games

The MLB records for 1-run games:

Most wins: 1978 Giants (42)
Most losses: 1968 White Sox (44)
Most games played: 1971 Astros (75)

By now, if you're a Reds fan, you've probably heard that they've lost an alarming 25 one-run games already. While not on pace to challenge any records, if they did go on to lose 36 such contests they'd be the first MLB team to do so since the 2002 Cubs. The most recent to lose 40 were the 1992 Dodgers.

A side note: this year's Giants are on pace for 41 one-run wins. No team since the record in 1978 has won more than the 39 victories recorded by the 1985 Reds.

MLB movers, 2010 to 2011

So far, the biggest gains in winning percentage:
1) Arizona (+ .149)
2) Pittsburgh (+ .139)
3) Milwaukee (+.079)
3) Cleveland (+.079)
5) Boston (+.069)

And the biggest drops:
1) Houston (-.136)
2) San Diego (-.127)
3) Minnesota (-.121)
4) Cincinnati (-.076)
5) Chicago White Sox (-.070)

Cincinnati has had the worst follow-up season of any 2010 NL playoff team. Philadelphia, Atlanta and San Francisco all look playoff-bound again.

The men behind the win 8/2/11

The series opener against Houston was a terrible downer, but all is not lost. With a win tomorrow (in a fairly favorable pitching matchup and an offense that should ALWAYS be better than Houston's) the Reds can still finish the three game set a step or two closer to some of the other Central competitors. Right now: 1 back of Pittsburgh, 4 behind St. Louis, 6.5 leeward of Milwaukee.

1) Homer Bailey. A lot of people love to rip this guy for his inconsistency but I always feel a million times better with him on the mound than some of the alternatives (Arroyo, Wood, Volquez and even Willis...who is consistent but never dominates like Homer did again tonight). He's got 8 of 12 quality starts this year, and this is the 5th time he's gone at least 7 innings (big after an extra inning debacle). His line: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K.

2) Edgar Renteria. The much-maligned Rent-a-wreck offered up a hugely clutch grand slam in the 5th...oddly the only inning with any scoring.

3) Chris Heisey. Started off the 5th with a double, only the second hit of the game for the Reds. 2 for 4 overall with a stolen base and a run scored.

4) Aroldis Chapman. Now eight straight appearances with no runs OR hits allowed, and his ERA is down to 3.73. During that span he has 15 strikeouts and 1 walk in 9.2 IP. WOW.

Reds-Astros Game 109 Preview

A key series for the Reds. While St. Louis plays Milwaukee, the Reds could gain a game (or two with a sweep) while dueling the mighty, mighty Houston Astros.

In the first game, it's Bronson Arroyo vs. Bud Norris.

Arroyo
vs Houston: 11-6, 4.46 in 20 starts
@ Minute Maid: 7-4, 5.24 in 12 starts

Best against: Quintero (1-17 with 8 Ks), Barmes (2-9)
Worst against: Carlos Lee (16-47, 3 HR, 11 RBI)

Bud Norris
vs Cincinnati: 0-1, 7.36 in 2 starts
@ Minute Maid: 12-10, 3.86 in 32 starts

Best against: BP (0-5), Stubbs (0-5)
Worst against: Hanigan (2-4, 4 RBI), Votto (1 HR, but also 3 K in 5 ABs)

Arroyo only has 9 quality starts out of 21 so far, which isn't good, but a turnaround still wouldn't be unprecedented. He had 9 quality starts at the same point in 2008 and an even worse ERA (by .16) but proceeded to lower it by about 1 full run over the final two months. Still doesn't forgive the performance so far...as we try to contend with the best teams over the next couple years, the rotation spots should all get better statistics than the ones he's posted in 2011.

Norris' record isn't any better at 5-7 overall but he's been much more consistent out there at a 3.39 ERA and 12/21 quality starts. His last three outings:

July 16: No decision, 5.2 IP, 4 ER vs Pittsburgh
July 22: Loss, 6.1 IP, 4 R (1 ER) at Chicago
July 27: No decision: 6.0 IP, 2 R (1 ER) at St. Louis

The Astros are a shell, and Arroyo needs to keep their offense down.

One problem: his historic HR/9 rate. 2.12 HR/9 this season, if continued through the end of the year, would be the worst by anyone with at least 150 IP since Lima Time in 2000. Combine that with the Crawford Boxes and it's not a welcome proposition.

Arroyo's career HR/9 at Minute Maid is 1.80, much higher than his career average.

To update a stat I've mentioned before, in only 4 Reds series all year has the winner of Game 1 gone on to lose that series.

In a home series against Houston and one against Atlanta, the Reds lost game 1 and won the series.

In a road series against Atlanta and one against LA, the Reds won game 1 and lost the series.

Makes Arroyo's start that much more important.

Projecting the final two months

When I projected based on current home/road records and how many remaining games of those types, then projected based on current .500+/under .500 records and how many remaining games of those types, and averaged the projections, this was the result for the final standings.

Milwaukee: 89 wins
St. Louis: 84 wins
Pittsburgh: 82.5 wins
Cincinnati: 81.5 wins

In other words, not too much different from now. By the end of the season (assuming the same teams stay above and below .500) the teams will have played the following number of games against teams with winning records:

Milwaukee: 76
St. Louis: 75
Pittsburgh: 75
Cincinnati: 95

So really, the rest of the way isn't going to balance things out enough for us.

Most popular MLB franchises (by Facebook likes)

At the top of each game recap, MLB.com shows the number of Facebook likes recorded for both teams.

1 - of course the Yankees (4 million +)
2 - of course the Red Sox (3 million +)
3 - of course the Cubs (1 million +)
4 - thanks to the Series win, the Giants (also 1 million +)

Between 800,000 and 999,999: Philadelphia, Atlanta, St. Louis

600,000 to 799,999: LA Dodgers, Texas, Detroit, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota

400,000 to 599,999: Milwaukee, NY Mets, Cleveland, Cincinnati (16th with 429K), Seattle

300,000 to 399,999: Colorado, Houston, Tampa Bay, LA Angels, Toronto, San Diego

200,000 to 299,999: Baltimore, Oakland, Kansas City, Pittsburgh

100,000 to 199,999: Florida, Arizona, Washington

The men behind the win 7/31/11

Impressive 3 game sweep of the Giants complete. Too bad the Brewers have won 6 in a row to maintain their big division lead.

1) Johnny Cueto. The only pitcher on the team with any complete games this year got his third, and amazingly this is the first one in the win column. The previous two were 8-inning complete game losses (2-1 and 1-0 thanks to pathetic offense). Today's line: only 5 base-runners (1 by error) and 2 of them got erased by double plays. 6 strikeouts, 1 walk. And he continues to induce ground balls like never before. 11 of them today.

2) Joey Votto. Got the first RBI of the game, and then three more for good measure with his blast in the 7th. 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored as well.

3) Drew Stubbs. 4 for 5 (only one strikeout!) and set the table at the beginning (scored the first run), middle (scored the 5th run) and end (scored the 9th run) of the game.

4) Edgar Renteria. Followed Stubbs onto the paths with singles of his own a couple times, walked once, and scored all three times on base.

Honorable mention: Todd Frazier for his first career home run.

Good news, bad news

The sample: 96 division winners, 1995 through 2010. The Reds currently sit 6.5 games out and in fourth place with 1 game left in July.

Good news: 37 (39%) trailed as the calendar turned to August OR at a later date.

Bad news: Only 6 (6%) trailed by 6.5 or more on August 1st or later.

Good news: The 2007 Phillies were still 7 games behind on September 12th, and the 1995 Mariners were 13 out on August 2nd.

Bad news: No team has ever been in 4th place this late and recovered.

Good news: Three of the six teams trailing by this many games won the division without significant contributions from new acquisitions.

Bad news: Three (2010 Giants, 2009 Twins and to a lesser extent the 2000 A's) depended on extremely positive results from new players.

The men behind the win 7/30/11

It's not often that in a 7-2 win, you have trouble picking four guys who really played well. A couple are easy, but as a result of the offensive slumber after the first inning, the rest are not.

1) Mike Leake. 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K. His overall ERA might not be fantastic, and he may be a shirt thief, but he also has 13 of 18 quality starts.

2) BP. You can't underestimate the value of that early clutch hit to affect the mindset of the team. Overall got on base 3 of 4 PAs.

3) Bill Bray. Sure it was a 7-2 game, but the bases were also loaded with 1 out in the top of the 7th and he shut it down. Against Beltran and Sandoval no less.

4) Heisey. Put the nail in the coffin with his two-run single to make it 5-0 in the bottom of the 1st.

Red LOBster King of the Day: Jay Bruce...he did have 2 RBI but also 5 LOB

wRC+ by position among Central contenders

wRC+ (weighted runs created, adjusted for park and league). If you want to compare players across positions/years/other variables, this is better than OPS+.

For each position I'll list the top 3 in MLB, and the relevant players at each position (for instance, Doumit and Snyder are injured for the Pirates so I list McKenry, who gets most of the starts now)

Catcher
Top 3 - Napoli 151, McCann 144, Hernandez 134
Central - Hernandez 134, Molina 103, Lucroy 98, Hanigan 93, McKenry 66

First base
Top 3 - Cabrera 167, Gonzalez 163, Fielder 158
Central - Fielder 158, Votto 151, Pujols 140, Overbay 83

Second base
Top 3 - Pedroia 146, Utley 142, Zobrist 138
Central - Weeks 131, Walker 104, Phillips 103, Schumaker 95

Shortstop
Top 3 - Reyes 162, Peralta 148, Cabrera 135
Central - Theriot 82, Cedeno 76, Betancourt 71, Renteria 66, Janish 42

Third base
Top 3 - Youkilis 148, Rodriguez 136, Sandoval 130
Central - Freese 123, Cairo 107, Descalso 95, Rolen 81, Alvarez 67, McGehee 60, d'Arnaud 58

Left field
Top 3 - Braun 176, Holliday 164, Johnson 149
Central - Braun 176, Holliday 164, Presley 148, Heisey 107, Gomes 103, Tabata 102, Lewis 87

Center field
Top 3 - Kemp 170, Granderson 153, Ellsbury 149
Central - McCutchen 142, Morgan 131, Stubbs 110, Rasmus 109

Right field
Top 3 - Bautista 209, Berkman 169, Beltran 153
Central - Berkman 169, Bruce 126, Jay 125, Hart 123, Jones 102

I'd say the main takeaway point is that, while shortstop and third have been major issues, left field is where we lag farthest behind the competition because that's supposed to be a position of major production. At least at short everyone else blows too, and if Cozart can get healthy we'll have a better option (in his limited time his rating was 122). At third, Frazier has potential to help us out as well.

The men behind the win 7/24/11

Finally, back-to-back wins for the first time since June 15th. Only 3 games back of the three-headed beast leading the Central.

1) Drew Stubbs obviously. Second career walkoff home run (also second career walkoff hit of any kind). Scored twice.

2) Aroldis Chapman. Huge performance to keep things tied.

3) Brandon Phillips. Early lead from his blast was nice, even if it didn't last.

4) Dontrelle Willis. All three of his outings have gone similarly...great innings, scary innings, all in all an okay start. He's not the potential ace he once was, but no one expects that anyway. If he can keep the team in the game the way he has so far, that's all we can ask.

The men behind the win 7/23/11

1) Edgar Renteria (?!) Yes the Rent-a-wreck was a one-man wrecking crew, with 3 RBIs including the go-ahead 2-run double in the 6th inning. Stop and ponder how many hyphens were used in that last sentence.

2) Homer Bailey. Sure he gave up a 2-run double to the pitcher and looked headed for disaster after 2 innings, but he recovered in ridiculous fashion to shut the Braves down through 6. Two straight very nice performances from Christian Bale. Other than Arroyo, the rotation is settling into a nice groove.

3) Brandon Phillips. Broke out of a 3 for 32 slump with 3 hits. 2 of them run-scoring doubles.

4) Todd Frazier. A guy I have scoffed at in the past, but with Cozart injured (horrible timing) hopefully he can produce more highlights like he did today with his near-grand slam.

Thank God for the 7th, because the 6th inning (after the Reds went up 4-2) looked like a classic 2011 Reds missed opportunity. 2nd and 3rd, nobody out, ZERO runs scored - thanks to Lewis, Gomes and Frazier.

Streaks of no streaks

Longest stretches in 162-game season era without the Reds posting back-to-back wins:

1) 33 games (4/29/01 - 6/4/01)
2) 31 games (three times - 8/29/93-10/3/93, 4/19/05-5/22/05, 7/25/08-8/28/08)
3) 29 games (twice - the current streak, and 7/3/09-8/4/09)

The most games the Reds won in any of those seasons was 78, in 2009.

The men behind the win 7/20/11

1) Johnny Cueto. Another quality start and his ERA back under 2.00

1A) Chase d'Arnaud. Yes, this Pittsburgh Pirate helped us just as much as Cueto, with his two errors (both resulting in unearned runs) and his continued failure at the plate. Only 1 RBI in 89 ABs this year.

3) Jay Bruce. On base all 4 times, scored a run.

4) Logan Ondrusek. Came on with 2 on and 1 out in the 7th and held the 2-run lead. Then got McCutchen to lead off the 8th before exiting.

Red LOBster King of the Day: Ramon Hernandez. 5 LOB, 0 for 4, 2 GIDP. Not his best work

Wrong guys getting too many chances?

Players in the top 50 this year for total men on base during their plate appearances, with bad rates (less than 14%) of converting those chances into RBIs:

MLB rank of chances - Player - RBI%
16 - Jay Bruce - 13.43
17 - Carlos Santana - 11.65
18 - Omar Infante - 10.04
20 - Casey McGehee - 12.74
23 - Torii Hunter - 13.18
29 - Michael Cuddyer - 12.65
30 - Alcides Escobar - 11.07
37 - James Loney - 10.98
40 - Alexei Ramirez - 13.06
43 - Jayson Werth - 8.68
44 - Brennan Boesch - 13.69
49 - Carlos Pena - 12.97
50 - Dan Uggla - 8.40

For some players, failures in these situations are an anomaly, while some make a habit of it.

Unfortunately Jay Bruce falls into the latter category, as he was also in the top 50 in chances last year and had an even worse conversion rate (11.11%)

The 11 players in the top 120 for chances and falling below the 14% cutoff line in both 2010 and 2011:
Jay Bruce
Michael Cuddyer
Jayson Werth
Nick Markakis
Mark Reynolds
Colby Rasmus
Lyle Overbay
Alcides Escobar
Carlos Pena
Chone Figgins
Juan Pierre

Bruce, Cuddyer, Escobar and Pena were in the top 50 for chances each season and thus have thrown away massive amounts of scoring opportunities for their teams.

Source I used to collect the data:

<http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/RBIPCT.py?StartDate=03%2F30%2F2011&EndDate=07%2F02%2F2011&SortField=1.0*%28OnRBI.RBI-OnRBI.HRs%29%2FOnRBI.RunnersOn&SortDir=desc&MinPA=50

Updated pitching/hitting in wins and losses

The Reds have now lost 49 games.

In 24, it was entirely due to hitting. Meaning the pitching gave up 4 runs or fewer (thus below league average for R/G which is a little over 4) but the offense couldn't score 5 or more.

In 16, it was due to both. Scored 4 or fewer AND gave up 5 or more.

In only 9, it was due solely to pitching.

Even the wins have had a (slightly) greater basis in positive pitching results.
25 both pitching and hitting were good
12 only pitching
10 only hitting

Note: I adjusted runs scored and runs allowed for extra innings. If you lose 5-4 in 19 innings that's the offense's fault, not the pitching.

As another example of how the results in a select few explosive games skew our offensive totals...

We have 52 games with 4 or fewer runs, and 44 with 5 or more.

40 times we have scored 3 or fewer.

28 times we have scored 2 or fewer. St. Louis, with almost exactly the same total RS for the season, has only been held to 2 or fewer runs 18 times. They usually score in the 3-5 range, giving their pitchers a fighting chance.

Let's go streaking!

The Reds have gone the past 25 games without any back-to-back wins. The overall record in that time is 10-15.

This is the worst such stretch since the horrible July swoon of 2009. They went 6-23 over a 29-game period between winning streaks, and had losing streaks of 6 and 8 games.

Tonight's pitching matchup:

Dontrelle Willis (gets his second start)
vs.
Charlie Morton (gave us fits twice this year...but hasn't been pitching well his past three outings)

Pitchers due to improve

Using half a run as the cutoff skews things, such that the large list of "lucky" pitchers above is opposed by only two "unlucky" pitchers with respect to both xFIP and tERA:

Brandon Morrow
Zack Greinke

(both should be expected to get better results as the season progresses)

If you look at xFIP alone, you get a bigger list. Again, all these guys theoretically should do BETTER the rest of the season:

Mike Leake
David Price
Madison Bumgarner
Matt Garza
Ryan Dempster
Edwin Jackson
Derek Lowe
Yovani Gallardo
Felipe Paulino
Chris Narveson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Chris Volstad
Carlos Carrasco
Gavin Floyd
Max Scherzer
Ted Lilly
Brett Myers
Jake Westbrook
Fausto Carmona
Brandon Morrow
Zack Greinke

Three Reds (Volquez, Wood, and Arroyo) also have had unlucky ERAs but weren't on the main list because of their xFIPs weren't below 4.00

Pitchers due for correction

Many/most of you may be familiar with a couple of the recently-developed measures that are often used as alternatives to ERA. Among the best are xFIP and tERA. You can look up the full descriptions and formulas quite easily if you choose, but to briefly summarize...

xFIP is home-run rate-adjusted fielding independent pitching. It only considers home runs (adjusted to expected rate per fly ball), walks and strikeouts per inning pitched. After weights are assigned to each of these values and you add 3.10 it gives a number fairly comparable to ERA. It also correlates better with future ERA than anything else currently used (at least according to fangraphs - I haven't tested it but I trust them).

tERA is "true" earned runs allowed. It takes into account batted ball types, which can have a very significant effect as shown by the following numbers:

Batters hit about .725 and slug 1.000 on line drives.

Batters hit about .235 and slug .255 on ground balls.

Batters hit about .220 and slug .580 on fly balls.

Here is a list of pitchers who, thus far in 2011, have an ERA that is at least half a run lower than BOTH their xFIP and tERA. This means that due to a combination of defense and luck, their results have been appreciably better than they've truly pitched. Not to say they're going to fall off the table (after all, a lot of these guys are respected pitchers), but that the reasonable expectation is for most of these pitchers to finish the year with a higher ERA than they currently sport. This list only includes pitchers where at least one of the metrics was 4.00 or below.

Johnny Cueto - his current 2.01 ERA is very unlikely to be sustained, a reasonable expectation is for him to finish in the 2.50-3.00 range
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
Jered Weaver
Josh Beckett
Gio Gonzalez
Ryan Vogelsong
Jair Jurrjens
Dustin Moseley
Kyle Kendrick
Kyle Lohse
Jeff Karstens
Matt Harrison
Josh Collmeter
Alexi Ogando
Trevor Cahill
Mark Buehrle
Paul Maholm
Freddy Garcia
Tyler Chatwood
Bruce Chen

None of Philadelphia's top three (Halladay, Hamels, Lee) appear on this list. Their minuscule ERAs are backed up by other statistics.

All data from fangraphs and baseball-reference

The men behind the win 7/17/11

1) Homer Bailey. He had some really nice starts earlier this season before the injury, but this is the best and most important to date. Only 6 baserunners in 7.1 IP. Only one mistake pitch, to Berkman for the solo HR. Struggled a couple times with control and wasn't really hitting his spots but the bite on his slider was sufficient that he didn't need pinpoint accuracy.

2) Zack Cozart. Hit his first MLB home run to add a vital insurance run and continues to impress, with at least one hit in every game played so far. Why EVER play Renteria?

3) Miguel Cairo. Whenever you need him, he's there for a spark. A triple?!

4) Ryan Hanigan. It was ugly, but unlike Gomes/Bruce/Stubbs/Phillips/Rolen/Lewis/etc you can count on him to put the ball in play with a man on third.

Huge series win. The Reds will still be 3.0 back of St. Louis and Pittsburgh, and likely 3.5 back of Milwaukee. But we're very much in the race and now have an opportunity to take ground from Pittsburgh. Cueto pitches in the finale Wednesday. Willis/McDonald (toss-up) Monday and Leake/Morton (likely loss) Tuesday.

How clutch was that home run?

Since 1950 (as far back as baseball-reference's play index will go), the Reds have only had seven home runs that met all of the following conditions:

- walk-off winner
- 2 outs
- behind at the time
- tying run not even in scoring position, meaning extra bases (or relying on another hit from the next guy) were required to keep the game alive

They are:
Wally Post in 1954 (3-run homer, down 2 against Chicago)
Roy McMillan in 1957 (2-run homer, down 1 against St. Louis - identical in many respects to BP's)
Hal King in 1973 (3-run homer, down 2 against Los Angeles)
Tony Perez in 1974 (2-run homer, down 1 against San Francisco)
Adam Dunn in 2006 (grand slam, down 3 against Cleveland)
Ramon Hernandez in 2011 (3-run homer, down 2 against Milwaukee)
Brandon Phillips in 2011 (2-run homer, down 1 against St. Louis)

More trivia on the event:

- It was Brandon's second walk-off home run of his career and first with the Reds, and third walk-off hit of any kind as a Red.

- Votto and Bruce are the co-leaders on the current roster for walk-off hits as Reds, with 4 each. Two by Bruce and one by Votto were home runs.

- Tony Perez is the all-time Reds leader in walk-off hits with 19. Frank Robinson had 14.

- Perez also leads the Reds in walk-off homers with 10. Adam Dunn had 7.

Cincinnati Reds All-Star Game History

The Reds were abysmal last night in the All-Star Game, going 0 for 6 with 4 strikeouts, plus an error by Jay Bruce. Here are the highlights and lowlights in Reds' ASG history.


Best combined hitting:


1) 1976. 7 for 14, 3 runs, 4 RBI, 1 HR. Bench, Concepcion, Foster, Griffey, Perez, Morgan and Rose. Foster's 3-run HR was the highlight.


2) 1956. 6 for 15, 3 runs, 2 RBI. Bailey, Kluszewski, Bell, Robinson, McMillan, Temple. Big Klu was 2 for 2.


3) 1954. 3 for 5, 3 runs, 5 RBI, 2 HR from only two players - Bell and Kluszewski.


4) 1980. 3 for 6, 3 runs, 1 RBI, 1 HR. Bench, Concepcion, Knight, and Griffey - who had the HR.


5) 1975. 5 for 15, 2 RBI. Bench, Morgan, Rose, Concepcion, Perez.


Honorable mention to 1967...only 1 for 4, but the hit was a game-winning HR by Perez in the 15th inning.




Best pitching:


1) 1940. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Derringer (got the win) and Walters.


2) 1990. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Armstrong, Dibble and Myers.


3) 1942. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Vander Meer and Walters.


4) 1938. 3 IP, 0 runs allowed by Vander Meer, who also got the win.


5) 1982. 2.1 IP, 0 runs allowed. Soto and Hume, who recorded a save.








Worst all-around:


1) 1995. 0 for 6 with 2 strikeouts at the plate. 2 runs allowed in 2 innings pitched.


2) 1965. 0 for 3 at the plate. 5 ER in 1.2 IP by Jim Maloney.


3) 2011. 0 for 6 with 4 strikeouts.


4) 1977. 2 for 12 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR. Five all-world guys should've done better with all those at-bats. And Seaver gave up 3 runs in 2 IP.


5) 1981. 0 for 5. Solo HR allowed in 1 IP.


Honorable mention to 1970 at Riverfront...if it weren't for Rose scoring the winning run, the Reds going 1 for 9 in the game would've been an embarrassment.




Best individual hitters, min. 10 AB:


1) Johnny Bench. 10 for 28


2) Ted Kluszewski. 7 for 14


3) Frank Robinson. 5 for 12






Worst individual hitters, min. 10 AB:


1) Barry Larkin. 2 for 18


2) Pete Rose. 6 for 27.


3) Joe Morgan. 6 for 24.

Milwaukee Walkoffs

I know we're all getting tired of watching these bums dance around home plate on us...and I already felt like they did it a disproportionate amount of the time. Turns out that's true.

Since the Brewers moved to the NL we've lost 53 times on their home field (overall our record is okay there actually, 56-53)

12 of them have been walkoff losses, plus another 7 where they went ahead in the bottom of the 8th.

As far as the walkoffs, that's 23% of the time we lose to them.

In MLB as a whole, only about 8-9% of games end that way.

So yes, it is a curse.

Or in the case of today's game, the curse of Dusty Baker. I like the guy overall but sometimes he makes some puzzling decisions. Today was mindblowing...why we even used a physically-worn and confidence-worn Cordero again with SO MANY OPTIONS AVAILABLE is beyond me. But it is what it is. What literally could and should have been a 4 game sweep is a 3-1 series loss.

The men behind the win, 7/9/11

1) Jay Bruce - 2 singles, 2 walks, 1 HR in 6 PAs. Go-ahead solo HR in the 10th inning for his only RBI. 2 runs scored.

2) Ramon Hernandez - single, HR in 5 ABs. 3 RBIs. Gave the Reds their first lead.

3) Joey Votto - 3 singles, 1 BB in 6 PAs. 1 RBI

4) Bill Bray - he did have a nightmarish throwing error on a pickoff attempt in the 9th (the THIRD error by a Reds pitcher in a single game). BUT he came in with a guy on and nobody out in a tie game, got a K and flyout, walked Fielder intentionally and then sent it to extras by recording the last out. He's the one guy on the team who has consistently performed with inherited runners.

The underperformers (in spite of the win):

- Drew Stubbs (0 for 6 in the leadoff spot, with 3 strikeouts...a familiar refrain)
- Johnny Cueto...the absolute definition of a non-quality quality start. 4 walks. 2 errors. Gave up all the runs early. But if this is about as bad as it gets for 2011 Cueto (and basically, it is) we'll take it. Frankly I'm not surprised that he struggled a bit. He hasn't pitched well at Miller Park and the pre-game team meeting probably added some pressure to his outing.
- Scott Rolen...1 for 5 with 2 strikeouts...and an unfathomable NINE MEN LEFT ON BASE
- Fred Lewis twice failed to convert with 2 outs and the bases loaded.

The Reds went 3 for 7 with 2 outs and RISP. 0 for 3 (Lewis twice, Rolen) in regulation and then 3 for 4 in the big 10th inning - Cairo, Votto and BP all had RBI singles and Bruce lined out.