An assertion commonly made about the failures of the 2011 Reds is that the lack of quality pitching was the primary reason. I wouldn't dispute any of the following:
- pitching was, and remains, a problem for making it to the postseason
- if the Reds were to make it back to the playoffs, they'd have even more problems because Cueto is the only guy who even comes close to measuring up with the top 3 of other staffs
- obtaining a #1 or #2 starter HAS to be an offseason priority
In spite of all this, I would make the argument that offense was a bigger determinant of the drop-off from 2010 to 2011. The simple counter-argument is "hey, they were second in the NL in runs per game, while the pitching staff was 12th in the league in ERA." I am more than aware of those numbers, but one thing I've harped on all season has been the variation from game to game. Overall the Reds have indeed scored a lot of runs, but they've also come up empty a lot.
Let's compare the Reds' hitting and pitching performances with 2010, and then with this year's NL playoff teams.
2011 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.13) - 41% (67 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 62% (100 of 162 games)
2010 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.33) - 49% (80 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 65% (106 of 162 games)
One important note is that virtually any team will have a higher "success rate" for pitching than hitting simply by nature of this mathematical approach. You can't read much into the comparison of hitting vs. pitching for one given team, but comparing across teams does give you a good idea of where they stand. The numbers above clearly show that hitting took a bigger dive than pitching.
More evidence:
- Pitching WAR actually went up from 2010 to 2011, from 7.5 to 10.2
- Offensive WAR went down dramatically, from 28.5 to 21.6
- Almost all positions saw a drop in OPS: C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF and CF. Only 2B and RF went up.
We all know the reasons why...injuries (Rolen and Cozart), backsliding performance (Janish and Stubbs), and easily foreseeable failure (Renteria and Gomes).
How the Reds rank this season compared to the playoff teams...
Successful hitting games:
St. Louis 75
Milwaukee 72
Cincinnati 67
Philadelphia 65
Arizona 65
Successful pitching/defense games:
Philadelphia 121
Milwaukee 104
Cincinnati 100
St. Louis 98
Arizona 97
Certainly, Cincinnati's numbers were buoyed a bit by the fact they allowed half the unearned runs (42) that St. Louis did (84) with its shoddy defense. Still, they don't appear to be dramatically behind in either category.
Some timeliness would certainly help - the Reds were by far the worst of these five teams in one-run games, and also failed to capitalize on good pitching performances when they got them, as seen here:
Winning percentage in games when allowing 3 or fewer runs:
Arizona .872 (68-10)
St. Louis .851 (63-11)
Milwaukee .828 (72-15)
Philadelphia .802 (81-20)
Cincinnati .701 (54-23)
Not that this prediction is particularly risky, but I'm highly confident that neither Arizona nor Milwaukee will come within 5 of this season's win totals in 2012. Arizona not only bested its Pythagorean expectation (88) by 6, but the numbers mentioned earlier for games with good pitching and hitting would suggest (by correlation) that they'd win far fewer. Milwaukee should still be good, but are more realistically an 88-90 win club with their current roster than a 96-win team. They might repeat, but it won't be as easy as this year.
I'll end this discussion with a comparison of WAR totals:
Philadelphia - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 30 for pitching = 52.2
Milwaukee - 24.3 for hitting/defense, 17.8 for pitching = 42.1
St. Louis - 30.0 for hitting/defense, 11.0 for pitching = 41
Arizona - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 13.7 for pitching = 35.8
Cincinnati - 24.8 for hitting/defense, 10.2 for pitching = 35
If you add these numbers to a "replacement level" squad that would win 30% (48.6) of its games, you would get the following expectations:
Philadelphia - 101 (actually won 102)
Milwaukee - 91 (actually won 96)
St. Louis - 90 (actually won 90)
Arizona - 84 (actually won 94, Pythag expectation was 88)
Cincinnati - 84 (actually won 79, Pythag expectation was 83)
One last prediction: If Cincinnati remains essentially the same squad next season, they should win 84-85 games but that won't be enough to compete for the playoffs. If they solve at least two of the three main problem positions (SS/3B/LF) they will compete for the division title but won't be able to win a playoff round. If they solve a couple of those positions AND add a high-caliber starting pitcher or two, they stand an excellent chance of making their first NLCS appearance since 1995.
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
2011 Reds with 1+ WAR change from 2010
The positive shifts in WAR from 2010 to 2011:
1) Leake -0.5 to 2.1
2) Cueto 2.0 to 4.3
3) Cordero 0.4 to 2.3
4) Phillips 2.6 to 4.2
5) Cairo 0.4 to 1.7
The negative shifts:
1) Bruce 4.6 to 1.3 (mostly due to drop in defensive value)
2) Rolen 3.5 to 0.6 (mostly due to injury)
3) Arroyo 2.1 to -0.5 (mostly due to...um...getting hammered almost every time he pitched)
4) Stubbs 5.2 to 3.0 (a combination of all the strikeouts and less defensive value)
5) Volquez 0.5 to -1.0
6) Maloney 0.4 to -0.8
The sum of all the changes listed here: -4.0 WAR
1) Leake -0.5 to 2.1
2) Cueto 2.0 to 4.3
3) Cordero 0.4 to 2.3
4) Phillips 2.6 to 4.2
5) Cairo 0.4 to 1.7
The negative shifts:
1) Bruce 4.6 to 1.3 (mostly due to drop in defensive value)
2) Rolen 3.5 to 0.6 (mostly due to injury)
3) Arroyo 2.1 to -0.5 (mostly due to...um...getting hammered almost every time he pitched)
4) Stubbs 5.2 to 3.0 (a combination of all the strikeouts and less defensive value)
5) Volquez 0.5 to -1.0
6) Maloney 0.4 to -0.8
The sum of all the changes listed here: -4.0 WAR
2011 Cincinnati Reds MVPs and LVPs
This one is based only on Wins Above Replacement.
Offensive WAR
MVP: Votto 5.9
LVP: Janish -1.3
Defensive WAR
MVP: Janish 1.3
LVP: Bruce -1.1 (one of the more surprising developments this year was his drop in defensive value)
Overall WAR
MVP: Votto 6.6
LVP: Francisco -0.4
Pitching WAR
MVP: Cueto 4.3
LVP: Volquez -1.0
Offensive WAR
MVP: Votto 5.9
LVP: Janish -1.3
Defensive WAR
MVP: Janish 1.3
LVP: Bruce -1.1 (one of the more surprising developments this year was his drop in defensive value)
Overall WAR
MVP: Votto 6.6
LVP: Francisco -0.4
Pitching WAR
MVP: Cueto 4.3
LVP: Volquez -1.0
10,000 wins
Since the Reds finished with only 79 wins in 2011, they're still 6 short of becoming the sixth team ever to win 10,000 games. Unfortunately that means they'll probably reach the milestone on the road in 2012. Unless they win all six of their games at home to start the season, it will happen some time during the ensuing 10-game road trip.
Worst pitching seasons since 1950
Yes, another negative post. Since the season was a disappointment, there will obviously be some of these. The focus of this one is Bronson Arroyo. He was, without a doubt, one of the most valuable pitchers for the Reds beginning in 2006. But this year, things fell apart in a big way.
The 46 HRs have been beaten to death, but did you know he's also one of only 16 Reds pitchers since 1950 to throw sufficient innings to qualify for the ERA title, and post negative WAR and WPA?
Thankfully, he didn't quite reach the pantheon of Red pitching suckitude. That's reserved for the following seasons:
1) Eric Milton, 2005. -2.3 WAR, -4.4 WPA. Both the worst ever by a qualifying Red pitcher. Also the worst ERA+ and BAA on the list. Nothing else even compares with this atrocious season. Finished with a record of 8-15 and 6.47 ERA in 186.1 IP, and gave up 40 homers (a Red record broken by Arroyo).
2) Herm Wehmeier, 1950. A 1.70 WHIP, 5.67 ERA, led the league in walks and wild pitches. Finished with 10 wins and 18 losses.
3) Tony Cloninger, 1969. Second worst on the list for WAR. Went 11-17 with a 5.03 ERA and only threw 13 quality starts out of his 34 total.
4) Danny Graves, 2003. Ah, the great failed experiment of moving Graves to a starting role, resulting in a 4-15 record and matching 5.33 ERA.
If you look at a bunch of the same key statistics I did for this list, and apply it to MLB as a whole, Milton's '05 ranks as the second worst since 1950. Only Jose Lima, in the exact same year but with Kansas City in the American League, produced an uglier piece of work.
The 46 HRs have been beaten to death, but did you know he's also one of only 16 Reds pitchers since 1950 to throw sufficient innings to qualify for the ERA title, and post negative WAR and WPA?
Thankfully, he didn't quite reach the pantheon of Red pitching suckitude. That's reserved for the following seasons:
1) Eric Milton, 2005. -2.3 WAR, -4.4 WPA. Both the worst ever by a qualifying Red pitcher. Also the worst ERA+ and BAA on the list. Nothing else even compares with this atrocious season. Finished with a record of 8-15 and 6.47 ERA in 186.1 IP, and gave up 40 homers (a Red record broken by Arroyo).
2) Herm Wehmeier, 1950. A 1.70 WHIP, 5.67 ERA, led the league in walks and wild pitches. Finished with 10 wins and 18 losses.
3) Tony Cloninger, 1969. Second worst on the list for WAR. Went 11-17 with a 5.03 ERA and only threw 13 quality starts out of his 34 total.
4) Danny Graves, 2003. Ah, the great failed experiment of moving Graves to a starting role, resulting in a 4-15 record and matching 5.33 ERA.
If you look at a bunch of the same key statistics I did for this list, and apply it to MLB as a whole, Milton's '05 ranks as the second worst since 1950. Only Jose Lima, in the exact same year but with Kansas City in the American League, produced an uglier piece of work.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Paul Janish's 2011 in perspective
I'm a fan of Cincinnati Reds players to a fault. Heck, I'll even forgive Mike Leake for his shopping habits. Much as I've tried to look past Janish's shortcomings at short (well...much more so at the plate than defensively, where he's fine), I had morbid curiosity get the better of me. I just had to examine how his 2011 season stands up historically.
I went to baseball-reference's season finder and used the following settings:
- at least 250 plate appearances (meaning the player was given the chance to really do damage)
- zero or negative WAR
- zero or negative WPA
- zero or negative base-out runs
- OPS+ of lower than 80
For the Cincinnati Reds from 1950 to 2011 (the only seasons available for some of the statistics), this search produced 54 results. Taking all the categories into account, I judged these five to be the worst of all time:
1) Tommy Helms (2B, 1970) - the worst WAR, WPA and base-out runs on the entire list. He actually won the Gold Glove at second base that year.
2) Bobby Tolan (CF/RF, 1973) - second worst WAR, third worst base-out runs, fifth worst WPA
3) Paul Householder (RF, 1982) - the second worst WPA and second worst base-out runs
4) Darrel Chaney (SS, 1973) - the worst batting average and worst OPS+. He was the backup to Concepcion, who appears three times on this list of 54 - but with nowhere close to the ineptitude of these top five.
5) Juan Castro (SS/UT, 2001) - second worst OPS+, third worst WAR
Thanks to a late-season offensive "burst" by Janish to raise his average to .214 and OPS+ to 43, he broke his way out of the bottom five. His season is still among the worst offensive displays ever by a Red, but not Hall of Shame-caliber.
I went to baseball-reference's season finder and used the following settings:
- at least 250 plate appearances (meaning the player was given the chance to really do damage)
- zero or negative WAR
- zero or negative WPA
- zero or negative base-out runs
- OPS+ of lower than 80
For the Cincinnati Reds from 1950 to 2011 (the only seasons available for some of the statistics), this search produced 54 results. Taking all the categories into account, I judged these five to be the worst of all time:
1) Tommy Helms (2B, 1970) - the worst WAR, WPA and base-out runs on the entire list. He actually won the Gold Glove at second base that year.
2) Bobby Tolan (CF/RF, 1973) - second worst WAR, third worst base-out runs, fifth worst WPA
3) Paul Householder (RF, 1982) - the second worst WPA and second worst base-out runs
4) Darrel Chaney (SS, 1973) - the worst batting average and worst OPS+. He was the backup to Concepcion, who appears three times on this list of 54 - but with nowhere close to the ineptitude of these top five.
5) Juan Castro (SS/UT, 2001) - second worst OPS+, third worst WAR
Thanks to a late-season offensive "burst" by Janish to raise his average to .214 and OPS+ to 43, he broke his way out of the bottom five. His season is still among the worst offensive displays ever by a Red, but not Hall of Shame-caliber.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds relief pitchers
Requirements: 40+ IP, 80% or more in relief
Factors considered: end-of-season award voting, WAR, WPA, pitching runs, pitching wins, IS%, K/9, WHIP, ERA+, K/BB, HR/9
1) Ted Abernathy, 1967. Easily the all-time Reds relief leader in: WAR, pitching runs, pitching wins, and WPA. He also led the league in saves.
2) Jeff Shaw, 1997. Best strikeout-to-walk ratio on the list. Led the league in saves and ranks high in most categories considered - including fourth in WHIP, pitching wins and WPA.
3) Rob Dibble, 1990. Ranks second on the list in pitching runs and pitching wins, and high in a number of other categories.
4) Clay Carroll, 1972. Received votes for the Cy and MVP, with good reason. Second on the list in WPA. Led the league in saves.
5) John Franco, 1988. Received votes for MVP. Ranks in the top ten of numerous categories. Led the league in saves and games finished.
The best of the rest:
6) Scott Williamson, 1999. Rookie of the Year. Best categories: pitching runs, pitching wins.
7) Rawly Eastwick, 1976. Received votes for Cy and MVP.
8) Doug Blair, 1978. Second in WAR with 3.8
9) Sammy Ellis, 1964.
10) Danny Graves, 2000.
Others worth mentioning:
Rob Dibble, 1989
Rob Murphy, 1986
Jeff Shaw, 1996
Scott Sullivan, 1999
Randy Myers, 1990
Billy McCool, 1966
Factors considered: end-of-season award voting, WAR, WPA, pitching runs, pitching wins, IS%, K/9, WHIP, ERA+, K/BB, HR/9
1) Ted Abernathy, 1967. Easily the all-time Reds relief leader in: WAR, pitching runs, pitching wins, and WPA. He also led the league in saves.
2) Jeff Shaw, 1997. Best strikeout-to-walk ratio on the list. Led the league in saves and ranks high in most categories considered - including fourth in WHIP, pitching wins and WPA.
3) Rob Dibble, 1990. Ranks second on the list in pitching runs and pitching wins, and high in a number of other categories.
4) Clay Carroll, 1972. Received votes for the Cy and MVP, with good reason. Second on the list in WPA. Led the league in saves.
5) John Franco, 1988. Received votes for MVP. Ranks in the top ten of numerous categories. Led the league in saves and games finished.
The best of the rest:
6) Scott Williamson, 1999. Rookie of the Year. Best categories: pitching runs, pitching wins.
7) Rawly Eastwick, 1976. Received votes for Cy and MVP.
8) Doug Blair, 1978. Second in WAR with 3.8
9) Sammy Ellis, 1964.
10) Danny Graves, 2000.
Others worth mentioning:
Rob Dibble, 1989
Rob Murphy, 1986
Jeff Shaw, 1996
Scott Sullivan, 1999
Randy Myers, 1990
Billy McCool, 1966
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Most career WAR among Cincinnati Reds pitchers
This list doesn't discriminate between starters and relievers, because no one who pitched solely as a reliever accumulated enough WAR to make the top 10.
1) Noodles Hahn, 39.6 in 7 seasons
2) Jim Maloney, 35.1 in 11 seasons
3) Dolf Luque, 35 in 12 seasons
4) Jose Rijo, 33.7 in 10 seasons
5) Paul Derringer, 31.2 in 10 seasons
6) Bucky Walters, 31.2, in 11 seasons
7) Gary Nolan, 28.2 in 10 seasons
8) Mario Soto, 26.9 in 12 seasons
9) Joe Nuxhall, 25.4 in 15 seasons
10) Bob Purkey, 24.9 in 7 seasons
10) Bob Ewing, 24.9 in 8 seasons
If he stays around and stays healthy, it's likely we'll see Johnny Cueto on this list in a few years.
1) Noodles Hahn, 39.6 in 7 seasons
2) Jim Maloney, 35.1 in 11 seasons
3) Dolf Luque, 35 in 12 seasons
4) Jose Rijo, 33.7 in 10 seasons
5) Paul Derringer, 31.2 in 10 seasons
6) Bucky Walters, 31.2, in 11 seasons
7) Gary Nolan, 28.2 in 10 seasons
8) Mario Soto, 26.9 in 12 seasons
9) Joe Nuxhall, 25.4 in 15 seasons
10) Bob Purkey, 24.9 in 7 seasons
10) Bob Ewing, 24.9 in 8 seasons
If he stays around and stays healthy, it's likely we'll see Johnny Cueto on this list in a few years.
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds starting pitchers
Starting pitching is even more difficult to compare across eras. While stats like complete games may be valuable to a comparison of modern pitchers, obviously pitchers in the 1900s and 1910s will dominate the rankings. An extra problem is that the Cy Young award hasn't been around as long as the MVP award (only since 1956). I did what I could to even the playing field, giving extra weight to WAR and making some subjective judgments of what certain pitchers might have accomplished in today's game.
1) Bucky Walters, 1939. No Cincinnati Red has ever won a Cy Young Award, but Walters is the only one with an NL MVP. He led the league in wins (most ever by a Red pitcher), complete games and ERA+. That season he also accumulated 7.7 WAR.
2) Dolf Luque, 1923. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt...neither the MVP nor the Cy existed yet, but I'm sure he would've won one or both this season. After all, he led the league in wins, shutouts and ERA. He also posted 9.9 WAR, easily the highest ever by a Reds pitcher.
3) Jose Rijo, 1993. The second-highest pitching WAR ever by a Red - 8.6. He finished 5th in Cy voting and got some MVP votes. Led the league in strikeouts.
4) Mario Soto, 1983. Finished second in Cy voting. This season ranks him second among all Red starting pitchers in average game score, third in quality start percentage, and fourth in strikeouts.
5) Tom Seaver, 1977. Most of his best seasons were with the Mets, making him very similar to Ken Griffey, Jr., but his first (incomplete) season with the Reds was superb. He finished third in Cy voting after compiling 5.4 WAR in Cincinnati and 2.2 in New York. He led the league in WHIP and his 1977 season ranks first among all Reds pitchers in average game score.
6) Jim Maloney, 1965. 8.0 WAR. This season ranks third among Red pitchers in strikeouts and average game score.
7) Ewell Blackwell, 1947. 8.3 WAR.
8) Mario Soto, 1982. 7.0 WAR, most strikeouts ever by a Red pitcher.
9) Bob Purkey, 1962. 7.2 WAR, led the league in win percentage.
10) Noodles Hahn, 1902. He had some great seasons at the turn of the century for the Reds, and this one rated the best in terms of WAR (7.7).
Others worth mentioning:
Gary Nolan, 1967 and 1972
Jim Maloney, 1966
Bucky Walters, 1940
Noodles Hahn, 1901, 1903 and 1904
Fred Toney, 1915
Danny Jackson, 1988
Eppa Rixey, 1923 and 1925
Elmer Riddle, 1941
1) Bucky Walters, 1939. No Cincinnati Red has ever won a Cy Young Award, but Walters is the only one with an NL MVP. He led the league in wins (most ever by a Red pitcher), complete games and ERA+. That season he also accumulated 7.7 WAR.
2) Dolf Luque, 1923. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt...neither the MVP nor the Cy existed yet, but I'm sure he would've won one or both this season. After all, he led the league in wins, shutouts and ERA. He also posted 9.9 WAR, easily the highest ever by a Reds pitcher.
3) Jose Rijo, 1993. The second-highest pitching WAR ever by a Red - 8.6. He finished 5th in Cy voting and got some MVP votes. Led the league in strikeouts.
4) Mario Soto, 1983. Finished second in Cy voting. This season ranks him second among all Red starting pitchers in average game score, third in quality start percentage, and fourth in strikeouts.
5) Tom Seaver, 1977. Most of his best seasons were with the Mets, making him very similar to Ken Griffey, Jr., but his first (incomplete) season with the Reds was superb. He finished third in Cy voting after compiling 5.4 WAR in Cincinnati and 2.2 in New York. He led the league in WHIP and his 1977 season ranks first among all Reds pitchers in average game score.
6) Jim Maloney, 1965. 8.0 WAR. This season ranks third among Red pitchers in strikeouts and average game score.
7) Ewell Blackwell, 1947. 8.3 WAR.
8) Mario Soto, 1982. 7.0 WAR, most strikeouts ever by a Red pitcher.
9) Bob Purkey, 1962. 7.2 WAR, led the league in win percentage.
10) Noodles Hahn, 1902. He had some great seasons at the turn of the century for the Reds, and this one rated the best in terms of WAR (7.7).
Others worth mentioning:
Gary Nolan, 1967 and 1972
Jim Maloney, 1966
Bucky Walters, 1940
Noodles Hahn, 1901, 1903 and 1904
Fred Toney, 1915
Danny Jackson, 1988
Eppa Rixey, 1923 and 1925
Elmer Riddle, 1941
Most career WAR among Cincinnati Reds position players
These stats, as usual, have been collected from baseball-reference. Only seasons with the Reds are included.
1) Pete Rose - 74.6 wins above replacement in 19 seasons
2) Johnny Bench - 71.3 in 17 seasons
3) Barry Larkin - 68.9 in 19 seasons
4) Frank Robinson - 61.5 in 10 seasons
5) Joe Morgan - 61.3 in 8 seasons
6) Vada Pinson - 45.1 in 11 seasons
7) Tony Perez - 43.8 in 16 seasons
8) Edd Roush - 41.1 in 12 seasons
9) Heinie Groh - 38.7 in 9 seasons
10) George Foster - 38.1 in 11 seasons
11) Dave Concepcion - 33.6 in 19 seasons
12) Lonny Frey - 30.4 in 7 seasons
13) Ted Kluszewski - 29.7 in 11 seasons
14) Eric Davis - 29.4 in 9 seasons
15) Frank McCormick - 29.0 in 10 seasons
16) Ernie Lombardi - 27.1 in 10 seasons
17) Ken Griffey Sr. - 23.7 in 12 seasons
18) Adam Dunn - 22.2 in 8 seasons
19) Reggie Sanders - 21.6 in 8 seasons
20) Ival Goodman - 21.3 in 8 seasons
There you have it - 20 Reds position players with 20+ accumulated WAR. Soon to break on to this list (and hopefully sticking around in Cincinnati to reach the top ten) is Joey Votto (19.8 WAR). Rose, Bench and Larkin make a pretty awesome top 3 - clearly the kings of combined success and longevity in the Queen City. Then you have Robinson and Morgan, who dominate this list on a WAR-per-season basis and would easily be #1 and 2 if they'd spent their whole careers in Cincinnati.
1) Pete Rose - 74.6 wins above replacement in 19 seasons
2) Johnny Bench - 71.3 in 17 seasons
3) Barry Larkin - 68.9 in 19 seasons
4) Frank Robinson - 61.5 in 10 seasons
5) Joe Morgan - 61.3 in 8 seasons
6) Vada Pinson - 45.1 in 11 seasons
7) Tony Perez - 43.8 in 16 seasons
8) Edd Roush - 41.1 in 12 seasons
9) Heinie Groh - 38.7 in 9 seasons
10) George Foster - 38.1 in 11 seasons
11) Dave Concepcion - 33.6 in 19 seasons
12) Lonny Frey - 30.4 in 7 seasons
13) Ted Kluszewski - 29.7 in 11 seasons
14) Eric Davis - 29.4 in 9 seasons
15) Frank McCormick - 29.0 in 10 seasons
16) Ernie Lombardi - 27.1 in 10 seasons
17) Ken Griffey Sr. - 23.7 in 12 seasons
18) Adam Dunn - 22.2 in 8 seasons
19) Reggie Sanders - 21.6 in 8 seasons
20) Ival Goodman - 21.3 in 8 seasons
There you have it - 20 Reds position players with 20+ accumulated WAR. Soon to break on to this list (and hopefully sticking around in Cincinnati to reach the top ten) is Joey Votto (19.8 WAR). Rose, Bench and Larkin make a pretty awesome top 3 - clearly the kings of combined success and longevity in the Queen City. Then you have Robinson and Morgan, who dominate this list on a WAR-per-season basis and would easily be #1 and 2 if they'd spent their whole careers in Cincinnati.
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds right fielders
The last of positions 2 through 9...leaving only the pitching seasons to analyze next. The glory decade for right field was most definitely the 1960s.
1) Frank Robinson, 1962. Like Barry Larkin's 1996 season, his post-MVP year was better. This season ranks first among all Red RF seasons in WAR (8.5), runs (led the league), doubles (led the league), OPS (led the league) and slugging (led the league). Second in HR, BA and OBP.
2) Frank Robinson, 1961. His NL MVP season. 7.6 WAR, led the league in slugging and OPS. Both stats rank second to his 1962 season.
3) Pete Rose, 1969. 6.9 WAR. First among all Red RF seasons in batting average, hits and OBP. Led the league in runs scored and batting average. Won a Gold Glove.
The best of the rest:
4) Reggie Sanders, 1995. 6.7 WAR. Finished sixth in MVP voting.
5) Frank Robinson, 1964. 7.6 WAR. 4th in MVP voting.
6) Dave Parker, 1985. 2nd in MVP voting. Led the league in doubles and RBI.
7) Wally Post, 1955. 5.3 WAR. First among Red RF seasons in HR.
8) Pete Rose, 1970. Won a Gold Glove, finished 7th in MVP voting.
9) Babe Herman, 1932. 5.5 WAR. Led the league in triples.
10) Ken Griffey, 1976. Batted .336 for the World Series champs.
Others worth mentioning:
Harry Heilmann, 1930
Pete Rose, 1968
Ival Goodman, 1938 and 1939
Frank Robinson, 1965
Sam Crawford, 1901 and 1902
1) Frank Robinson, 1962. Like Barry Larkin's 1996 season, his post-MVP year was better. This season ranks first among all Red RF seasons in WAR (8.5), runs (led the league), doubles (led the league), OPS (led the league) and slugging (led the league). Second in HR, BA and OBP.
2) Frank Robinson, 1961. His NL MVP season. 7.6 WAR, led the league in slugging and OPS. Both stats rank second to his 1962 season.
3) Pete Rose, 1969. 6.9 WAR. First among all Red RF seasons in batting average, hits and OBP. Led the league in runs scored and batting average. Won a Gold Glove.
The best of the rest:
4) Reggie Sanders, 1995. 6.7 WAR. Finished sixth in MVP voting.
5) Frank Robinson, 1964. 7.6 WAR. 4th in MVP voting.
6) Dave Parker, 1985. 2nd in MVP voting. Led the league in doubles and RBI.
7) Wally Post, 1955. 5.3 WAR. First among Red RF seasons in HR.
8) Pete Rose, 1970. Won a Gold Glove, finished 7th in MVP voting.
9) Babe Herman, 1932. 5.5 WAR. Led the league in triples.
10) Ken Griffey, 1976. Batted .336 for the World Series champs.
Others worth mentioning:
Harry Heilmann, 1930
Pete Rose, 1968
Ival Goodman, 1938 and 1939
Frank Robinson, 1965
Sam Crawford, 1901 and 1902
Monday, September 19, 2011
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds center fielders
The CF position is one where the Reds have had fairly sustained success, even if no one has won an MVP. In fact, six different decades are represented in this top ten.
1) Cy Seymour, 1905. Cy's numbers were ridiculous. He led the league in hits, doubles, triples, RBI, batting average, OBP, slugging and of course OPS. He also posted 8.4 WAR. Many of these statistics rank first all-time among Red CF.
2) Eric Davis, 1987. This season ranks him first all-time among Red CF in SLG and OPS, and second in HR and runs scored. He also won a Gold Glove, and accumulated 8.0 WAR, his personal best.
3) Vada Pinson, 1961. 7.4 WAR, Gold Glove, third in NL MVP voting. Led the league in hits, and had a .343 batting average.
4) Ken Griffey, Jr., 2000. Unfortunately his only excellent season as a Red. Most HR all-time by a Red CF, second in walks and RBI, 5.8 WAR. Of his top 12 WAR seasons, 11 were with Seattle.
The best of the rest:
5) Vada Pinson, 1963.
6) Vada Pinson, 1959.
7) Edd Roush, 1923.
8) Gus Bell, 1953.
9) Edd Roush, 1920.
10) Eric Davis, 1986.
Others worth mentioning:
Bobby Tolan, 1970 and 1972
Edd Roush, 1917 and 1919
Mike Cameron, 1999
Ken Griffey, Jr., 2005
Eric Davis, 1996
1) Cy Seymour, 1905. Cy's numbers were ridiculous. He led the league in hits, doubles, triples, RBI, batting average, OBP, slugging and of course OPS. He also posted 8.4 WAR. Many of these statistics rank first all-time among Red CF.
2) Eric Davis, 1987. This season ranks him first all-time among Red CF in SLG and OPS, and second in HR and runs scored. He also won a Gold Glove, and accumulated 8.0 WAR, his personal best.
3) Vada Pinson, 1961. 7.4 WAR, Gold Glove, third in NL MVP voting. Led the league in hits, and had a .343 batting average.
4) Ken Griffey, Jr., 2000. Unfortunately his only excellent season as a Red. Most HR all-time by a Red CF, second in walks and RBI, 5.8 WAR. Of his top 12 WAR seasons, 11 were with Seattle.
The best of the rest:
5) Vada Pinson, 1963.
6) Vada Pinson, 1959.
7) Edd Roush, 1923.
8) Gus Bell, 1953.
9) Edd Roush, 1920.
10) Eric Davis, 1986.
Others worth mentioning:
Bobby Tolan, 1970 and 1972
Edd Roush, 1917 and 1919
Mike Cameron, 1999
Ken Griffey, Jr., 2005
Eric Davis, 1996
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds left fielders
On to Left Field, where the Redlegs have brought home 2 NL MVPs. That makes the first two choices pretty easy.
1) George Foster, 1977. NL MVP. 8.2 WAR. Led the league in HR, runs scored, RBI, and OPS. Ranks first among all Red LF in HR, RBI and OPS, and second in runs.
2) Pete Rose, 1973. NL MVP. 8.5 WAR. Led the league in hits and batting average. Ranks first among all Red LF in hits.
3) Frank Robinson, 1956. Rookie of the Year. 6.2 WAR. Led the league in runs scored, and his total from that season is the third highest among all Reds at the position.
4) Adam Dunn, 2004. The much-maligned Cowboy of the Clubhouse La-Z-Boys did have a couple valuable seasons, and this was one of them. 5.5 WAR. Ranks among all-time Red LF: second in HR, third in OPS, fourth in walks.
The best of the rest:
5) Adam Dunn, 2005
6) Pete Rose, 1972
7) Frank Robinson, 1957
8) Pete Rose, 1974
9) George Foster, 1976
10) George Foster, 1978
Others worth mentioning:
Eric Davis, 1986
Greg Vaughn, 1999
Pat Duncan, 1922
Bob Bescher, 1912
Mike Donlin, 1903
1) George Foster, 1977. NL MVP. 8.2 WAR. Led the league in HR, runs scored, RBI, and OPS. Ranks first among all Red LF in HR, RBI and OPS, and second in runs.
2) Pete Rose, 1973. NL MVP. 8.5 WAR. Led the league in hits and batting average. Ranks first among all Red LF in hits.
3) Frank Robinson, 1956. Rookie of the Year. 6.2 WAR. Led the league in runs scored, and his total from that season is the third highest among all Reds at the position.
4) Adam Dunn, 2004. The much-maligned Cowboy of the Clubhouse La-Z-Boys did have a couple valuable seasons, and this was one of them. 5.5 WAR. Ranks among all-time Red LF: second in HR, third in OPS, fourth in walks.
The best of the rest:
5) Adam Dunn, 2005
6) Pete Rose, 1972
7) Frank Robinson, 1957
8) Pete Rose, 1974
9) George Foster, 1976
10) George Foster, 1978
Others worth mentioning:
Eric Davis, 1986
Greg Vaughn, 1999
Pat Duncan, 1922
Bob Bescher, 1912
Mike Donlin, 1903
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds third basemen
This is the most interesting position so far. Like first base, there isn't a clear favorite. And it's also the only position other than CF without an NL MVP season from any Red. Moreover, the Cincinnati hot corner has been lacking in defensive prowess, as Scott Rolen (2010) became the first Red ever to win a Gold Glove at the position. Again, the rules: 120+ games played, at least 50% at that position. I examined conventional statistics, WAR, and awards. A lot of these decisions, especially Perez vs Rose and where to rank Groh, were very difficult.
1) Tony Perez, 1970. 6.7 WAR. First among Red 3B in HR and OPS. Second in RBI and WAR. Finished third in NL MVP voting.
2) Pete Rose, 1976. 6.7 WAR. First among Red 3B in runs, hits and batting average. Second in WAR. Finished fourth in NL MVP voting.
3) Heinie Groh, 1917. 6.9 WAR. He played in an entirely different era, so many of his counting stats don't measure up, but he really belongs in the top 3. Groh led the league in hits, doubles and OBP in 1917. This season ranks him 7th in hits and 5th in doubles among all Red third basemen.
The best of the rest:
4) Heinie Groh, 1919 - led the league in OPS, posted 6.2 WAR
5) Tony Perez, 1969 - second among Red 3B in HR, OPS. 5.6 WAR.
6) Pete Rose, 1975 - second among Red 3B in hits, doubles and walks. 4.4 WAR.
7) Deron Johnson, 1965 - first among Red 3B in RBI, fourth in MVP voting
8) Chris Sabo, 1988 - second among Red 3B in stolen bases, Rookie of the Year
9) Billy Werber, 1939 - led the league in runs scored, posted 4.5 WAR
10) Don Hoak, 1957 - third among Red 3B in OPS, led the league in doubles
Also worth mentioning:
Billy Werber, 1940 (5.0 WAR)
Chris Sabo, 1991 (4th among Red 3B in OPS, 4.1 WAR)
Heinie Groh, 1918 (led league in runs, doubles and OBP, 4.7 WAR)
Tony Perez, 1968 and 1971
Pete Rose, 1977 and 1978
1) Tony Perez, 1970. 6.7 WAR. First among Red 3B in HR and OPS. Second in RBI and WAR. Finished third in NL MVP voting.
2) Pete Rose, 1976. 6.7 WAR. First among Red 3B in runs, hits and batting average. Second in WAR. Finished fourth in NL MVP voting.
3) Heinie Groh, 1917. 6.9 WAR. He played in an entirely different era, so many of his counting stats don't measure up, but he really belongs in the top 3. Groh led the league in hits, doubles and OBP in 1917. This season ranks him 7th in hits and 5th in doubles among all Red third basemen.
The best of the rest:
4) Heinie Groh, 1919 - led the league in OPS, posted 6.2 WAR
5) Tony Perez, 1969 - second among Red 3B in HR, OPS. 5.6 WAR.
6) Pete Rose, 1975 - second among Red 3B in hits, doubles and walks. 4.4 WAR.
7) Deron Johnson, 1965 - first among Red 3B in RBI, fourth in MVP voting
8) Chris Sabo, 1988 - second among Red 3B in stolen bases, Rookie of the Year
9) Billy Werber, 1939 - led the league in runs scored, posted 4.5 WAR
10) Don Hoak, 1957 - third among Red 3B in OPS, led the league in doubles
Also worth mentioning:
Billy Werber, 1940 (5.0 WAR)
Chris Sabo, 1991 (4th among Red 3B in OPS, 4.1 WAR)
Heinie Groh, 1918 (led league in runs, doubles and OBP, 4.7 WAR)
Tony Perez, 1968 and 1971
Pete Rose, 1977 and 1978
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds shortstops
We continue around the horn to shortstop, where (near-)future Hall of Famer Barry Larkin reigns supreme. As usual, I examined players in history with at least 120 games played, and at least 50% of those as the position in question. I looked at a number of conventional stats, as well as WAR and any awards received. The final judgment was based on both objective rankings and subjective weighting, especially with respect to awards.
1) Barry Larkin, 1996. This wasn't his MVP season, but it was better in every way. 7.4 WAR (easily the best of his career or any Red SS in history). Ranks first in Red SS history for HR, runs, RBI, walks, and OPS. Won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and finished 12th in MVP voting. Became the first 30-30 shortstop in MLB history, and is still the only Red SS to hit 30 homers.
2) Barry Larkin, 1995. NL MVP, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger. First in Red SS history for stolen bases and batting average. 5.9 WAR.
The best of the rest:
3) Barry Larkin, 1998. 5.9 WAR, second among Red SS in batting average and OPS
4) Barry Larkin, 1999. 5.2 WAR, second among Red SS in runs and walks
5) Barry Larkin, 1988. 6.2 WAR, second among Red SS in hits
6) Dave Concepcion, 1974. 5.1 WAR, Gold Glove winner
7) Barry Larkin, 1991.
8) Barry Larkin, 1992.
9) Barry Larkin, 1990.
10) Dave Concepcion, 1979.
Others worth mentioning:
Roy McMillan 1956
Leo Cardenas 1965
Dave Concepcion 1976
Eddie Miller 1974
Felipe Lopez 2005
1) Barry Larkin, 1996. This wasn't his MVP season, but it was better in every way. 7.4 WAR (easily the best of his career or any Red SS in history). Ranks first in Red SS history for HR, runs, RBI, walks, and OPS. Won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and finished 12th in MVP voting. Became the first 30-30 shortstop in MLB history, and is still the only Red SS to hit 30 homers.
2) Barry Larkin, 1995. NL MVP, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger. First in Red SS history for stolen bases and batting average. 5.9 WAR.
The best of the rest:
3) Barry Larkin, 1998. 5.9 WAR, second among Red SS in batting average and OPS
4) Barry Larkin, 1999. 5.2 WAR, second among Red SS in runs and walks
5) Barry Larkin, 1988. 6.2 WAR, second among Red SS in hits
6) Dave Concepcion, 1974. 5.1 WAR, Gold Glove winner
7) Barry Larkin, 1991.
8) Barry Larkin, 1992.
9) Barry Larkin, 1990.
10) Dave Concepcion, 1979.
Others worth mentioning:
Roy McMillan 1956
Leo Cardenas 1965
Dave Concepcion 1976
Eddie Miller 1974
Felipe Lopez 2005
Friday, September 16, 2011
Top ten seasons of Cincinnati Reds second basemen
This position is another no-brainer (like Bench at catcher), considering Joe Morgan is arguably the best 2B in MLB history. From 1972 to 1976 his numbers were surreal, especially if you look at WAR. The only debate here is which season was superior - '75 or '76?
1) Joe Morgan, 1976. NL MVP. Led the league in OPS and WAR (10.0). #1 in Reds 2B history for RBI and OPS, #2 in Reds 2B history for batting average and homers. Also won a Gold Glove.
2) Joe Morgan, 1975. NL MVP. Led the league in walks, OPS and WAR (12.0). #1 in Reds 2B history for batting average, stolen bases and walks. #2 in Reds 2B history for OPS. Also won a Gold Glove.
3) Joe Morgan, 1973. Led the league in WAR (9.9). #2 in Reds 2B history for stolen bases. #3 in Reds 2B history for HRs. #4 in Reds 2B history for OPS. Also won a Gold Glove.
The best of the rest:
4) Joe Morgan, 1974
5) Pete Rose, 1965
6) Joe Morgan, 1977
7) Brandon Phillips, 2007
8) Joe Morgan, 1972
9) Johnny Temple, 1958
10) Pete Rose, 1966
1) Joe Morgan, 1976. NL MVP. Led the league in OPS and WAR (10.0). #1 in Reds 2B history for RBI and OPS, #2 in Reds 2B history for batting average and homers. Also won a Gold Glove.
2) Joe Morgan, 1975. NL MVP. Led the league in walks, OPS and WAR (12.0). #1 in Reds 2B history for batting average, stolen bases and walks. #2 in Reds 2B history for OPS. Also won a Gold Glove.
3) Joe Morgan, 1973. Led the league in WAR (9.9). #2 in Reds 2B history for stolen bases. #3 in Reds 2B history for HRs. #4 in Reds 2B history for OPS. Also won a Gold Glove.
The best of the rest:
4) Joe Morgan, 1974
5) Pete Rose, 1965
6) Joe Morgan, 1977
7) Brandon Phillips, 2007
8) Joe Morgan, 1972
9) Johnny Temple, 1958
10) Pete Rose, 1966
Jay Bruce's Walkoff - Not Clutch?
The funny thing about walkoff homers is they aren't always (mathematically, anyway) all that "clutch." Before I get into this discussion, two disclaimers.
1 - Jay Bruce is a great talent and (barring something unexpected) worth every bit of his contract.
2 - Bruce has had some of the most memorable moments at bat and in the field during his time in Cincinnati.
But didn't last night's home run feel a little anti-climactic? Certainly not worthy of the same level of revelry afforded to walkoffs past, let alone division-clinching walkoffs.
There are three main reasons that some (or at least I) felt this way last night.
1 (the obvious) - the Reds aren't in any kind of race, except to finish at/above .500 (which would be really nice)
2 (also obvious) - after Cordero's blown save (first since the All Star Break) it felt like the Reds should have had the game wrapped up already
3 (less obvious) - the situation was not all that dire in terms of win probability
Just a reminder...each team can have anywhere between a 0 and 1 (or 0 and 100 in percentage terms) chance of winning at any moment in the game. Because the Reds were tied and Bruce was batting in the home half of the 11th, with nobody out, and Votto already on second base, they already had an 81% chance of winning.
There were all sorts of ways for them to deal the finishing blow. While it was not an absolute guarantee (especially for the 2011 edition of the Cincinnati Reds) any fan watching was fully expecting a Reds victory after a lead-off double. All this being said, it was pretty darn exciting to defeat the hated Cubs with a bullpen-seeking missile.
I took a look at the 68 total walkoff homers in MLB during 2011. Among them, Bruce's had the third-lowest Win Probability Added (0.19). The only two lower came with the bases loaded and 1 out, meaning there was an even higher expectation of victory already (83%, so the homers resulted in 0.17 WPA).
- You may recall that Ramon Hernandez's Opening Day blast and Brandon Phillips' bomb against the Cardinals were both very clutch. In fact, they're both among the MLB top 3 for walkoff homer WPA this season, with a value of 0.91.
- This was Bruce's third career walkoff home run, and he is now the active career leader over Votto (2) and Stubbs (2)
- Tony Perez (10) has the most all-time of any Red, followed by Adam Dunn (7) and Frank Robinson (6)
1 - Jay Bruce is a great talent and (barring something unexpected) worth every bit of his contract.
2 - Bruce has had some of the most memorable moments at bat and in the field during his time in Cincinnati.
But didn't last night's home run feel a little anti-climactic? Certainly not worthy of the same level of revelry afforded to walkoffs past, let alone division-clinching walkoffs.
There are three main reasons that some (or at least I) felt this way last night.
1 (the obvious) - the Reds aren't in any kind of race, except to finish at/above .500 (which would be really nice)
2 (also obvious) - after Cordero's blown save (first since the All Star Break) it felt like the Reds should have had the game wrapped up already
3 (less obvious) - the situation was not all that dire in terms of win probability
Just a reminder...each team can have anywhere between a 0 and 1 (or 0 and 100 in percentage terms) chance of winning at any moment in the game. Because the Reds were tied and Bruce was batting in the home half of the 11th, with nobody out, and Votto already on second base, they already had an 81% chance of winning.
There were all sorts of ways for them to deal the finishing blow. While it was not an absolute guarantee (especially for the 2011 edition of the Cincinnati Reds) any fan watching was fully expecting a Reds victory after a lead-off double. All this being said, it was pretty darn exciting to defeat the hated Cubs with a bullpen-seeking missile.
I took a look at the 68 total walkoff homers in MLB during 2011. Among them, Bruce's had the third-lowest Win Probability Added (0.19). The only two lower came with the bases loaded and 1 out, meaning there was an even higher expectation of victory already (83%, so the homers resulted in 0.17 WPA).
- You may recall that Ramon Hernandez's Opening Day blast and Brandon Phillips' bomb against the Cardinals were both very clutch. In fact, they're both among the MLB top 3 for walkoff homer WPA this season, with a value of 0.91.
- This was Bruce's third career walkoff home run, and he is now the active career leader over Votto (2) and Stubbs (2)
- Tony Perez (10) has the most all-time of any Red, followed by Adam Dunn (7) and Frank Robinson (6)
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Top seasons of Cincinnati Reds first basemen
Continuing up the line from catcher, here are what I consider to be the top seasons (taking mostly offense only into consideration, except the inclusion of defense in overall WAR or winning a Gold Glove). The cutoffs: at least 120 games played in that season, and at least 50% of those at first base. For each, I provide a few of the most impressive statistics (all from baseball-reference of course).
1) Ted Kluszewski, 1954. NL-leading 49 homers (most all-time by a Red 1B). NL-leading 141 RBI (most all-time by a Red 1B). OPS of 1.049 (highest ever by a Red 1B). Absurd WAR of 8.1. Lost out on the MVP award to Willie Mays.
2) Joey Votto, 2010. Led the NL in OBP and SLG (so, obviously, OPS as well). Won the MVP award.
3) Frank McCormick, 1939. Led the league in hits and RBI. Only finished 4th in MVP voting, but would go on to win it in 1940.
The rest of the top ten:
4) Kluszewski, 1955 - led the league in hits
5) McCormick, 1940 - won the MVP, posted 6.0 WAR
6) Jake Daubert, 1922 - led the league in triples, second among Red 1B in RS and BA
7) Frank Robinson, 1959 (one of his non-outfield seasons)
8) Sean Casey, 1999
9) Kluszewski, 1953
10) Votto, 2011 - already 6.5 WAR, most walks ever by a Red
1) Ted Kluszewski, 1954. NL-leading 49 homers (most all-time by a Red 1B). NL-leading 141 RBI (most all-time by a Red 1B). OPS of 1.049 (highest ever by a Red 1B). Absurd WAR of 8.1. Lost out on the MVP award to Willie Mays.
2) Joey Votto, 2010. Led the NL in OBP and SLG (so, obviously, OPS as well). Won the MVP award.
3) Frank McCormick, 1939. Led the league in hits and RBI. Only finished 4th in MVP voting, but would go on to win it in 1940.
The rest of the top ten:
4) Kluszewski, 1955 - led the league in hits
5) McCormick, 1940 - won the MVP, posted 6.0 WAR
6) Jake Daubert, 1922 - led the league in triples, second among Red 1B in RS and BA
7) Frank Robinson, 1959 (one of his non-outfield seasons)
8) Sean Casey, 1999
9) Kluszewski, 1953
10) Votto, 2011 - already 6.5 WAR, most walks ever by a Red
Reds 7 Cubs 2: The men behind the win 9/14/11
The Reds got a solid win, and Cueto took a few hundreths of a run off his ERA, but Johnny also exited with arm trouble in the 4th. Officially, he left with a "strained right lat." Clearly there is no need for him to pitch again in 2011 if there's any injury risk, and the real concern is whether the injury is anything that might linger or (heaven forbid) require surgery in the offseason. On to tonight's heroes:
1) Ramon Hernandez. Hit a 3-run blast in the bottom of the 2nd to put the Reds on the board first. It was all the offense they'd need.
2) Juan Francisco. Went 2 for 4, played great defense, and had a 2-run single in the third to really put things away early.
3) Johnny Cueto. Only lasted 3.2 innings, but hey, he's been unreal all year, and didn't give up any runs tonight as the offense cruised to an early lead.
4) The bullpen work of Ondrusek/Masset/Arredondo...LeCure got the win, but these three held the Cubs in check through the final 3 frames.
Tomorrow in the finale it's Homer Bailey and Randy Wells.
1) Ramon Hernandez. Hit a 3-run blast in the bottom of the 2nd to put the Reds on the board first. It was all the offense they'd need.
2) Juan Francisco. Went 2 for 4, played great defense, and had a 2-run single in the third to really put things away early.
3) Johnny Cueto. Only lasted 3.2 innings, but hey, he's been unreal all year, and didn't give up any runs tonight as the offense cruised to an early lead.
4) The bullpen work of Ondrusek/Masset/Arredondo...LeCure got the win, but these three held the Cubs in check through the final 3 frames.
Tomorrow in the finale it's Homer Bailey and Randy Wells.
Top seasons of Cincinnati Reds catchers
No one in his or her right mind would dispute that Johnny Bench is the best catcher in Reds history, and arguably the greatest catcher in MLB history. Consider his statistical placement in the annals of Cincinnati baseball...11 of the top 20 HR seasons...11 of the top 20 RBI seasons...10 of the top 20 hit seasons...12 of the top 20 runs scored seasons...etc etc
I went to baseball-reference and singled out Reds from 1901 to 2011, playing at least 100 games in a season, with at least 50% of their appearances as a catcher. Here are what I found to be the top 3 seasons of all time:
1) Johnny Bench, 1970. He won the first of two NL MVP awards that year, and for good reason. Batted .293 with a league-leading 45 HR and a league-leading 148 RBI. Posted 6.5 WAR (actually only tied for his third best total in that category). He also received the third of his ten NL Gold Gloves. Unfortunately Bench did not hit well in either the NLCS victory over Pittsburgh or World Series loss to Baltimore that year (a combined 6 for 28 with 4 RBI).
2) Johnny Bench, 1972. His second MVP year. 40 HR, 125 RBI (both league-leading totals again). 9.1 WAR. Another Gold Glove. A slightly better postseason than in 1970 - 12 for 41 combined in NLCS vs Pittsburgh and WS loss to Oakland.
3) Johnny Bench, 1974. Fourth in MVP voting. A league-leading 129 RBI. A league-leading 315 total bases. Another Gold Glove. 7.6 WAR.
The best of the rest (players other than Bench):
Ernie Lombardi, 1938. Won the NL MVP. 19 HR and 95 RBI...NL-leading .342 average...5.3 WAR.
Others worth mentioning, in no particular order:
Smoky Burgess 1955
Bubbles Hargrave 1926
Ed Bailey 1956
Eddie Taubensee 1999
Ray Mueller 1944
I went to baseball-reference and singled out Reds from 1901 to 2011, playing at least 100 games in a season, with at least 50% of their appearances as a catcher. Here are what I found to be the top 3 seasons of all time:
1) Johnny Bench, 1970. He won the first of two NL MVP awards that year, and for good reason. Batted .293 with a league-leading 45 HR and a league-leading 148 RBI. Posted 6.5 WAR (actually only tied for his third best total in that category). He also received the third of his ten NL Gold Gloves. Unfortunately Bench did not hit well in either the NLCS victory over Pittsburgh or World Series loss to Baltimore that year (a combined 6 for 28 with 4 RBI).
2) Johnny Bench, 1972. His second MVP year. 40 HR, 125 RBI (both league-leading totals again). 9.1 WAR. Another Gold Glove. A slightly better postseason than in 1970 - 12 for 41 combined in NLCS vs Pittsburgh and WS loss to Oakland.
3) Johnny Bench, 1974. Fourth in MVP voting. A league-leading 129 RBI. A league-leading 315 total bases. Another Gold Glove. 7.6 WAR.
The best of the rest (players other than Bench):
Ernie Lombardi, 1938. Won the NL MVP. 19 HR and 95 RBI...NL-leading .342 average...5.3 WAR.
Others worth mentioning, in no particular order:
Smoky Burgess 1955
Bubbles Hargrave 1926
Ed Bailey 1956
Eddie Taubensee 1999
Ray Mueller 1944
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Reds 2 Cubs 1: The men behind the win 9/13/11
The Reds bounced back from an ugly night in Game 1 of this Cubs series, as Mike Leake delivered another gem and was ultimately rewarded with his 12th win in his final start of 2011.
1) Leake - 8 IP, only 1 run allowed on a GIDP. The Reds still didn't give him any room for error, but luckily he avoided the no-decision he was stuck with in Chicago after LaHair's 9th-inning blast. Mike also scored the the run that proved decisive after reaching on a fielder's choice.
2) Brandon Phillips. His leadoff homer in the first inning was the only power seen all night. In the past 11 games where the Reds hit leadoff home runs, they're 9-2, with eight one-run victories. Strange coincidence.
3) Edgar Renteria. 3 for 4 with the only other RBI. One of the few guys who wasn't owned all night by Ryan Dempster.
4) Francisco Cordero recorded his 33rd save with a 1-2-3 ninth.
Red LOBster of the night: Jay Bruce. Left 7 on to go along with his three K's.
1) Leake - 8 IP, only 1 run allowed on a GIDP. The Reds still didn't give him any room for error, but luckily he avoided the no-decision he was stuck with in Chicago after LaHair's 9th-inning blast. Mike also scored the the run that proved decisive after reaching on a fielder's choice.
2) Brandon Phillips. His leadoff homer in the first inning was the only power seen all night. In the past 11 games where the Reds hit leadoff home runs, they're 9-2, with eight one-run victories. Strange coincidence.
3) Edgar Renteria. 3 for 4 with the only other RBI. One of the few guys who wasn't owned all night by Ryan Dempster.
4) Francisco Cordero recorded his 33rd save with a 1-2-3 ninth.
Red LOBster of the night: Jay Bruce. Left 7 on to go along with his three K's.
Ranking the Reds' Starting Pitching
By median game score:
1) Cueto 62
2) Bailey 57
3) Leake 54.5
4) Willis 52
5) Wood 49.5
6) Arroyo 46
7) Volquez 44
By percentage of starts with game scores of 40+ (keeping the team in the game)
1) Cueto 91
2) Leake 88
3) Willis 83
4) Volquez 77
5) Arroyo 76
6) Wood 75
7) Bailey 68
By ERA:
1) Cueto 2.36
2) Leake 4.00
3) Bailey 4.34
4) Wood 4.92
5) Willis 5.04
6) Arroyo 5.28
7) Volquez 5.80
By xFIP:
1) Leake 3.65
2) Cueto 3.86
3) Bailey 3.89
4) Willis 4.07
5) Volquez 4.22
6) Arroyo 4.52
7) Wood 4.60
By SIERA:
1) Leake 3.57
2) Willis 4.12
3) Cueto 4.13
4) Volquez 4.26
5) Bailey 4.37
6) Wood 4.39
7) Arroyo 4.41
By WAR (extrapolated to 35 starts)
1) Cueto 4.4
2) Bailey 2.4
3) Wood 2.2
4) Leake 2.0
5) Willis 1.8
6) Volquez -0.6
7) Arroyo -1.1
Composite rankings
1) Cueto 1.5
2) Leake 2.2
3) Bailey 3.7
4) Willis 3.8
5) Wood 5.2
6) Volquez 5.5
7) Arroyo 6.2
It's funny how closely these final numbers resemble each pitcher's ideal role. Cueto has pitched like an ace, but is likely something between a 1 and a 2 on a true contender. Leake looks like a 2nd or 3rd starter. Bailey and Willis are good enough to be 4th (or 5th) starters - but Bailey really needs to reduce the percentage of very poor outings. And the other three (if they continue to pitch as they have in 2011) don't belong in the rotation.
1) Cueto 62
2) Bailey 57
3) Leake 54.5
4) Willis 52
5) Wood 49.5
6) Arroyo 46
7) Volquez 44
By percentage of starts with game scores of 40+ (keeping the team in the game)
1) Cueto 91
2) Leake 88
3) Willis 83
4) Volquez 77
5) Arroyo 76
6) Wood 75
7) Bailey 68
By ERA:
1) Cueto 2.36
2) Leake 4.00
3) Bailey 4.34
4) Wood 4.92
5) Willis 5.04
6) Arroyo 5.28
7) Volquez 5.80
By xFIP:
1) Leake 3.65
2) Cueto 3.86
3) Bailey 3.89
4) Willis 4.07
5) Volquez 4.22
6) Arroyo 4.52
7) Wood 4.60
By SIERA:
1) Leake 3.57
2) Willis 4.12
3) Cueto 4.13
4) Volquez 4.26
5) Bailey 4.37
6) Wood 4.39
7) Arroyo 4.41
By WAR (extrapolated to 35 starts)
1) Cueto 4.4
2) Bailey 2.4
3) Wood 2.2
4) Leake 2.0
5) Willis 1.8
6) Volquez -0.6
7) Arroyo -1.1
Composite rankings
1) Cueto 1.5
2) Leake 2.2
3) Bailey 3.7
4) Willis 3.8
5) Wood 5.2
6) Volquez 5.5
7) Arroyo 6.2
It's funny how closely these final numbers resemble each pitcher's ideal role. Cueto has pitched like an ace, but is likely something between a 1 and a 2 on a true contender. Leake looks like a 2nd or 3rd starter. Bailey and Willis are good enough to be 4th (or 5th) starters - but Bailey really needs to reduce the percentage of very poor outings. And the other three (if they continue to pitch as they have in 2011) don't belong in the rotation.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Pitch type values for the four Red regulars
Fangraphs has all kinds of handy stats, including sortable pitch type values. Only four Reds have accumulated sufficient at-bats to really form the basis for judgment in 2011 (or to "qualify for the batting title"), and you probably know which ones - Votto, Phillips, Stubbs and Bruce.
Fastballs:
Votto is 2nd best in MLB
BP, Stubbs and Bruce are all moderately good
Sliders:
Bruce is 6th best in MLB
Votto is neutral
Stubbs and BP are both terrible
Cutters:
Votto and BP are both in the top 30 of MLB
Bruce is moderately good
Stubbs is terrible
Curveballs:
Votto is #37 in MLB
Stubbs is neutral
Bruce is moderately bad
BP is terrible
Changeups:
Votto, Bruce and BP are all moderately good
Stubbs is terrible
Fastballs:
Votto is 2nd best in MLB
BP, Stubbs and Bruce are all moderately good
Sliders:
Bruce is 6th best in MLB
Votto is neutral
Stubbs and BP are both terrible
Cutters:
Votto and BP are both in the top 30 of MLB
Bruce is moderately good
Stubbs is terrible
Curveballs:
Votto is #37 in MLB
Stubbs is neutral
Bruce is moderately bad
BP is terrible
Changeups:
Votto, Bruce and BP are all moderately good
Stubbs is terrible
Reds who love/hate GABP
Most teams play better at home for obvious reasons. And just about any hitter would prefer to blast away in a place like Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark, where homers come easy. But strangely, 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto is not such a hitter. For his career, he hits 32 points higher on the road. In spite of the slightly diminished home run totals, he hits a lot more doubles and singles in road games. Thank goodness the Reds can rely on his bat on the road (as they did last night against the Cubs), because most of his teammates really scuffle...
Here's a list of some Reds with dramatically (and consistently) better averages at GABP:
Jay Bruce (47 points higher for his career, 23 more home runs at home)
Drew Stubbs (56 points higher for his career, 13 more home runs at home)
Ramon Hernandez (+42 in 2009, +55 in 2010, and +129 in 2011)
Ryan Hanigan is +37 at home for his career, in spite of being +64 on the road in 2011.
Paul Janish was far better away in 2010, but is far better at home in 2011. All in all he averages out to about a .220 lifetime hitter no matter the location, so his splits hardly even merit discussion.
Here's a list of some Reds with dramatically (and consistently) better averages at GABP:
Jay Bruce (47 points higher for his career, 23 more home runs at home)
Drew Stubbs (56 points higher for his career, 13 more home runs at home)
Ramon Hernandez (+42 in 2009, +55 in 2010, and +129 in 2011)
Ryan Hanigan is +37 at home for his career, in spite of being +64 on the road in 2011.
Paul Janish was far better away in 2010, but is far better at home in 2011. All in all he averages out to about a .220 lifetime hitter no matter the location, so his splits hardly even merit discussion.
Reds 4 Cubs 2: The men behind the win 9/6/11
Mike Leake's sprint to victory turned into a 13-inning marathon for the Reds. It was frustrating to watch, but worth it in the end.
The heroes:
1) Mike Leake. One mistake pitch to Bryan LaHair, resulting in a 2-run homer with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th to tie things up, meant Leake would not get his much-deserved 2-hit shutout. After a single by Alfonso Soriano in the second (he was erased the very next batter on a Marlon Byrd GIDP), Leake didn't give up a hit again until a cheap infield single in the bottom of the 9th. In between, only two guys reached base - Darwin Barney on catcher's interference, and Soriano on an HBP (Byrd again doubled him up in the 8th). This was true domination by Leake, and everyone in Reds country was disappointed for him when LaHair's blast sailed out to right field.
2) Joey Votto. If not for Leake's gem, this guy would be the clear #1. He provided two of the three RBIs on the night (Mesoraco's GIDP means no RBI for the second of the four runs). Both came on doubles to drive in Dave Sappelt - one in the sixth to put the Reds ahead 1-0, one in the thirteenth to put the Reds ahead 3-2. Both times he broke a long-standing offensive malaise.
3) Dave Sappelt. He got on base 4 of 6 times, and was the key star other than Votto in a manner similar to the Alonso/Sappelt comeback game in Miami. Two doubles, 1 single and a walk. Scored both go-ahead runs on Votto doubles, motoring around the bases like a madman.
4) Sam LeCure. He pitched to one batter, but I'll admit I thought things were over in the bottom of the 10th. The Cubs had all the momentum, and thanks to Nick Masset, they had built a scary situation - bases loaded, 1 out. Enter LeCure to face Jeff Baker. GIDP, inning over.
Honorable mention to Francisco Cordero (1-2-3 for the save in the 13th) and Aroldis Chapman (1.1 scoreless, got the Reds out of Arredondo's mess in the 11th, got the win).
No Red LOBsters worth mentioning...in fact, the Reds went 5 for 13 with RISP so I can't complain.
Tomorrow for all the marbles and a potential fourth straight road series win, it's ace Johnny Cueto vs the often-irritating Ryan Dempster at 8:05 ET. There are some subplots to this one. Can Cueto maintain his lead in the ERA "race" and finally get to 10 wins? If the Reds don't break through against Dempster, can they do so against a quartet of Cub relievers who have given them fits in 2011? In 27 combined innings against Samardzija, Wood, Marmol and Marshall, the Reds have scored only 6 earned runs (2.00 ERA) and struck out 33 times. Finally, the ever-present questions about the youngsters - which ones will play, and which ones will make the most of their opportunities? So far, everyone has contributed but everyone has also shown weaknesses or inconsistencies in some aspect of the game. There is definitely reason for hope in 2012 but the lineup for next year (other than the obvious mainstays) is still completely TBD.
The heroes:
1) Mike Leake. One mistake pitch to Bryan LaHair, resulting in a 2-run homer with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th to tie things up, meant Leake would not get his much-deserved 2-hit shutout. After a single by Alfonso Soriano in the second (he was erased the very next batter on a Marlon Byrd GIDP), Leake didn't give up a hit again until a cheap infield single in the bottom of the 9th. In between, only two guys reached base - Darwin Barney on catcher's interference, and Soriano on an HBP (Byrd again doubled him up in the 8th). This was true domination by Leake, and everyone in Reds country was disappointed for him when LaHair's blast sailed out to right field.
2) Joey Votto. If not for Leake's gem, this guy would be the clear #1. He provided two of the three RBIs on the night (Mesoraco's GIDP means no RBI for the second of the four runs). Both came on doubles to drive in Dave Sappelt - one in the sixth to put the Reds ahead 1-0, one in the thirteenth to put the Reds ahead 3-2. Both times he broke a long-standing offensive malaise.
3) Dave Sappelt. He got on base 4 of 6 times, and was the key star other than Votto in a manner similar to the Alonso/Sappelt comeback game in Miami. Two doubles, 1 single and a walk. Scored both go-ahead runs on Votto doubles, motoring around the bases like a madman.
4) Sam LeCure. He pitched to one batter, but I'll admit I thought things were over in the bottom of the 10th. The Cubs had all the momentum, and thanks to Nick Masset, they had built a scary situation - bases loaded, 1 out. Enter LeCure to face Jeff Baker. GIDP, inning over.
Honorable mention to Francisco Cordero (1-2-3 for the save in the 13th) and Aroldis Chapman (1.1 scoreless, got the Reds out of Arredondo's mess in the 11th, got the win).
No Red LOBsters worth mentioning...in fact, the Reds went 5 for 13 with RISP so I can't complain.
Tomorrow for all the marbles and a potential fourth straight road series win, it's ace Johnny Cueto vs the often-irritating Ryan Dempster at 8:05 ET. There are some subplots to this one. Can Cueto maintain his lead in the ERA "race" and finally get to 10 wins? If the Reds don't break through against Dempster, can they do so against a quartet of Cub relievers who have given them fits in 2011? In 27 combined innings against Samardzija, Wood, Marmol and Marshall, the Reds have scored only 6 earned runs (2.00 ERA) and struck out 33 times. Finally, the ever-present questions about the youngsters - which ones will play, and which ones will make the most of their opportunities? So far, everyone has contributed but everyone has also shown weaknesses or inconsistencies in some aspect of the game. There is definitely reason for hope in 2012 but the lineup for next year (other than the obvious mainstays) is still completely TBD.
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Reds 3 Cardinals 2: The men behind the win 9/4/11
It may not mean much in light of the abomination of a series versus the Phillies which preceded it, but a series win on the Cardinals' home turf is always a welcome sight. In fact it was the first series win in St. Louis since a successful sweep in June of 2006, a span of 12 series including two sweeps, nine times that they lost 2 of 3, and one split of a 4-gamer in 2009.
The heroes today:
1) Juan Francisco. It's too early to judge but he's certainly had a nice first 4 games back in MLB. He went 4 for 5 with the game-winning, 2 out RBI today off Fernando Salas in the top of the 10th inning, ending 5 straight innings of nail-biting scoreless baseball.
2) Bronson Arroyo. A no-decision wasn't proper reward for his effort, scattering 10 hits over 8 innings and leaving the Reds tied 2-2. He struck out 5 and didn't walk a batter. Jon Jay got to him for a solo shot in the 1st, and Descalso had an RBI triple in the 4th to tie it, but Arroyo kept it that way through the next 4 innings.
3) Edgar Renteria. You know it was a slow day for offensive production (not for hits but for runs) when one of the top performers struck out three times. But his two-run dong in the top of the first off Edwin Jackson was the Reds' only regulation tally.
4) Francisco Cordero. Pitched a 1-2-3 10th inning for his 30th save.
Honorable mention to BP for going 2 for 4, getting on base 3 of 5 times in the leadoff spot, and raising his average to .301.
Red LOBster of the day: Ryan Hanigan (6 LOB). He had three different opportunities to hit with men on 1st and 3rd and 2 out (in the 6th, 8th and 10th innings) and came up empty each time.
Next up: 3 games in Chicago. In the first one, the Reds might try to get Willis a win for the first time in a Cincinnati uniform.
The heroes today:
1) Juan Francisco. It's too early to judge but he's certainly had a nice first 4 games back in MLB. He went 4 for 5 with the game-winning, 2 out RBI today off Fernando Salas in the top of the 10th inning, ending 5 straight innings of nail-biting scoreless baseball.
2) Bronson Arroyo. A no-decision wasn't proper reward for his effort, scattering 10 hits over 8 innings and leaving the Reds tied 2-2. He struck out 5 and didn't walk a batter. Jon Jay got to him for a solo shot in the 1st, and Descalso had an RBI triple in the 4th to tie it, but Arroyo kept it that way through the next 4 innings.
3) Edgar Renteria. You know it was a slow day for offensive production (not for hits but for runs) when one of the top performers struck out three times. But his two-run dong in the top of the first off Edwin Jackson was the Reds' only regulation tally.
4) Francisco Cordero. Pitched a 1-2-3 10th inning for his 30th save.
Honorable mention to BP for going 2 for 4, getting on base 3 of 5 times in the leadoff spot, and raising his average to .301.
Red LOBster of the day: Ryan Hanigan (6 LOB). He had three different opportunities to hit with men on 1st and 3rd and 2 out (in the 6th, 8th and 10th innings) and came up empty each time.
Next up: 3 games in Chicago. In the first one, the Reds might try to get Willis a win for the first time in a Cincinnati uniform.
Saturday, September 3, 2011
Hot and Cold by WPA
WPA is Win Probability Added. For any play, this ranges from -1 to 1, with most values close to zero. Like many other statistics, it's readily available and sortable on fangraphs.com.
Joey Votto is the leader in all of MLB in positive WPA accumulated (15.45), and second in overall WPA (add in his negative outcomes) to Bautista. For reference, he was second last year in MLB to Miguel Cabrera in both positive and overall WPA.
This metric points out the inconsistency of Bruce, Phillips and Stubbs - the only other Reds with "strangle-holds" on their respective positions, such that they have had opportunities to accumulate plenty of positive and negative WPA.
The three are ranked as follows (on fangraphs) in MLB for 2011 +WPA:
Bruce - 15th
Phillips - 30th
Stubbs - 44th
But they nearly (and in the case of Stubbs, fully) offset these positive outcomes with negative ones, as seen in their rankings for negative WPA:
Stubbs - 3rd in MLB
Bruce - 5th
BP - 15th
Joey Votto is the leader in all of MLB in positive WPA accumulated (15.45), and second in overall WPA (add in his negative outcomes) to Bautista. For reference, he was second last year in MLB to Miguel Cabrera in both positive and overall WPA.
This metric points out the inconsistency of Bruce, Phillips and Stubbs - the only other Reds with "strangle-holds" on their respective positions, such that they have had opportunities to accumulate plenty of positive and negative WPA.
The three are ranked as follows (on fangraphs) in MLB for 2011 +WPA:
Bruce - 15th
Phillips - 30th
Stubbs - 44th
But they nearly (and in the case of Stubbs, fully) offset these positive outcomes with negative ones, as seen in their rankings for negative WPA:
Stubbs - 3rd in MLB
Bruce - 5th
BP - 15th
Ryan Hanigan: Harbinger of Victory?
Scott Rolen was a great catalyst for the 2010 Reds' offense. And there is no doubt that Joey Votto is the greatest offensive force on this team, and one of the great offensive talents in all of MLB.
Then you have a guy like Ryan Hanigan, who puts up solid (for a catcher) but unspectacular offensive numbers. Take heed when he produces, though, as the Reds are (all records for 2010 and 2011 combined):
9-0 when he homers
37-8 when he scores a run
25-9 in his multi-hit games
17-1 in his multi-RBI games
To some extent, there's an obvious explanation. If a bottom-of-the-order guy is racking up hits and run production, it's often because the game is a blowout. But that explanation only takes you so far, and doesn't fully account for the records above.
Here are some other fairly interesting Reds situational records (retrieved from baseball-reference):
24-4 in 2010/11 when Rolen has multiple RBIs
56-23 in 2010/11 when Rolen scores a run
13-4 in 2011 when Stubbs scores multiple runs
13-4 in 2011 when BP has multiple RBIs
8-0 in 2011 when Bruce steals a base
I find these splits (generally) to be more informative than simply "records in starts" because those are meaningless in the abundant cases where that particular player did not contribute much/anything to the victory. Want a perfect example? The Reds are 44-36 this year in Janish's starts, and it's not like he's been a catalyst. As with any numbers, they have to be considered in context of other numbers as well as detailed observations of the games.
Then you have a guy like Ryan Hanigan, who puts up solid (for a catcher) but unspectacular offensive numbers. Take heed when he produces, though, as the Reds are (all records for 2010 and 2011 combined):
9-0 when he homers
37-8 when he scores a run
25-9 in his multi-hit games
17-1 in his multi-RBI games
To some extent, there's an obvious explanation. If a bottom-of-the-order guy is racking up hits and run production, it's often because the game is a blowout. But that explanation only takes you so far, and doesn't fully account for the records above.
Here are some other fairly interesting Reds situational records (retrieved from baseball-reference):
24-4 in 2010/11 when Rolen has multiple RBIs
56-23 in 2010/11 when Rolen scores a run
13-4 in 2011 when Stubbs scores multiple runs
13-4 in 2011 when BP has multiple RBIs
8-0 in 2011 when Bruce steals a base
I find these splits (generally) to be more informative than simply "records in starts" because those are meaningless in the abundant cases where that particular player did not contribute much/anything to the victory. Want a perfect example? The Reds are 44-36 this year in Janish's starts, and it's not like he's been a catalyst. As with any numbers, they have to be considered in context of other numbers as well as detailed observations of the games.
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