Oldest MLB franchises, cities and nicknames

For Reds fans, history is rightfully a point of pride.  But I do prefer to use facts instead of oft-repeated myths.


Professional baseball did, for all intents and purposes, start in Cincinnati in 1869.  However, that franchise is not connected to the current Cincinnati Reds as many fans believe.  In fact, it failed to remain financially viable, folded, and half the team became the original Boston Red Stockings who are now the Atlanta Braves.  Confused yet?  Good.  How about a few lists to muddy the waters a bit further?


The earliest MLB franchises still in existence (American Association, National League or American League teams):
1) Atlanta Braves (as the Boston Red Stockings, 1876 National League)
1) Chicago Cubs (as the Chicago White Stockings, 1876 National League)
3) Cincinnati Reds (as the Cincinnati Red Stockings, 1882 American Association)
3) Pittsburgh Pirates (as the Pittsburgh Alleghenys, 1882 American Association)
3) St. Louis Cardinals (as the St. Louis Brown Stockings, 1882 American Association)
6) Philadelphia Phillies (as the Philadelphia Quakers, 1883 National League)
6) San Francisco Giants (as the New York Gothams, 1883 National League)
8) Los Angeles Dodgers (as the Brooklyn Atlantics, 1884 American Association)

All others began in the 20th century.




The earliest MLB franchises (still in existence) to inhabit their current cities
1) Chicago Cubs (as White Stockings in 1876)
2) Cincinnati Reds (as Red Stockings in 1882)
2) Pittsburgh Pirates (as Alleghenys in 1882)
2) St. Louis Cardinals (as Brown Stockings in 1882)
5) Philadelphia Phillies (as Quakers in 1883)
6) Detroit Tigers (1901)
6) Chicago White Sox (1901)
6) Cleveland Indians (as Blues in 1901)
6) Boston Red Sox (as Americans in 1901)
10) New York Yankees (as Highlanders in 1903) 


All others moved to, or started in, their current cities in the 1950s or later.




The earliest MLB franchises to adopt their current nicknames (even if later abandoned and re-adopted)
1) San Francisco Giants, 1885 (in New York)
2) Cincinnati Reds, 1890 (switched to Redlegs from 1954-1959, then back to Reds)
2) Philadelphia Phillies, 1890
4) Pittsburgh Pirates, 1891
5) St. Louis Cardinals, 1900
6) Detroit Tigers, 1901
6) Chicago White Sox, 1901
6) Oakland Athletics, 1901 (in Philadelphia)
9) Chicago Cubs, 1903
10) Boston Red Sox, 1908
11) Los Angeles Dodgers, 1911 (in Brooklyn, and switched to Superbas in 1913, Robins in 1914, back to Dodgers in 1932)
12) Atlanta Braves, 1912 (in Boston)
13) New York Yankees, 1913
14) Cleveland Indians, 1915


All others adopted their current names in the 1950s or later.




The earliest MLB franchises to exist with their current cities AND nickname (even if later abandoned and re-adopted)
1) Cincinnati Reds, 1890 (switched to Redlegs from 1954-1959, then back to Reds)
1) Philadelphia Phillies, 1890
3) Pittsburgh Pirates, 1891
4) St. Louis Cardinals, 1900
5) Detroit Tigers, 1901
5) Chicago White Sox, 1901
7) Chicago Cubs, 1903
8) Boston Red Sox, 1908
9) New York Yankees, 1913
10) Cleveland Indians, 1915

All others first matched the current configuration in the 1950s or later. 


The longest-standing previous forms of current franchises
1) San Francisco Giants - played as the New York Giants for 83 seasons
2) Minnesota Twins - played as the Washington Senators for 60 seasons
3) Oakland Athletics - played as the Philadelphia Athletics for 54 seasons
4) Baltimore Orioles - played as the St. Louis Browns for 52 seasons
5) Atlanta Braves - played as the Boston Braves for 41 seasons


A few oddities:


- The New York Yankees began as the Baltimore Orioles in 1901.


- The Baltimore Orioles began as the Milwaukee Brewers in 1901, then the St. Louis Browns from 1902 through 1953.


- The Dodgers have had a ridiculous number of nicknames: Atlantics, Grays, Bridegrooms, Grooms, back to Bridegrooms, Superbas, Dodgers, back to Superbas, Robins, and finally back to Dodgers.  That's ten different incarnations with seven different names.


- Two different current franchises began as two separate forms of the Washington Senators.  The 1901 version of the Senators eventually became the Minnesota Twins (in 1961).  The 1961 version of the Senators eventually became the Texas Rangers (in 1972).


- Of the 16 current franchises established in 1901 or earlier, only three have kept the exact same nickname throughout history: the Tigers, White Sox, and Athletics.




Baseball-reference.com was my main source for this post.  If you find any errors, don't hesitate to point them out.

No streaking permitted

If you follow the Reds closely, it probably seems like a long time since their last lengthy streak of the winning OR losing variety.  That's because they are, in fact, one of the least streaky teams in baseball over the past three seasons.


Only two teams in MLB this year have no streaks of 4+ games: Cincinnati and Oakland


Only three teams in MLB have gone since May 2011 or longer without any streak of 6+ games: Cincinnati, Toronto and the New York Mets.


Only five teams in MLB have gone since August 2010 or longer without any streak of 7+ games: Cincinnati, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and both Los Angeles teams.

First 3 versus Last 3

I'm talking about innings. 

The Reds have scored 58 runs in innings 7-8-9, which is tied for best in the NL with Colorado.

The Reds have allowed only 29 runs in innings 7-8-9, which is best in all of MLB.

Clearly they dominate the end of games, which has kept us in the race.

The first three innings of the game are an entirely different story. 

Cincinnati has only scored 33 total runs in the opening three frames, which is worse than all teams except Oakland (32), Pittsburgh (32) and the Mets (also 33). 

For contrast, St. Louis has scored more runs in the third inning alone (35).

If you look at only the 2nd and 3rd innings specifically, the Reds have scored 13 total runs, easily the worst in MLB and a product of the weak bottom of our order.

There have been only two games so far this year where the Reds have scored in two or more of the first three innings - April 28th against Houston and May 6th at Pittsburgh, both victories.

Reds Bullpen on a Tear

FACT #1: Since Sean Marshall's unfortunate blown save against San Francisco on Thursday, April 26th, the Reds' bullpen has thrown 17 straight scoreless innings over the course of 5 games.  During that remarkable stretch, they've only allowed 6 hits and struck out 14 while walking only 6.

FACT #2:  Aroldis Chapman (13.1 innings), Logan Ondrusek (12) and JJ Hoover (4) are all yet to allow a single run (earned OR unearned) this season.  That's a combined 29.1 scoreless innings, with only 11 hits allowed.


In addition, Jose Arredondo has 10.1 scoreless IP since his only outing (in early April) where he allowed any runs.


Wow.

A Review of the Reds' April Pitching

The Reds have definitely shown some improvement on the mound in 2012.  Unfortunately, the loss of Madson has prevented this from being a truly special group of pitchers.  With him around, perhaps we'd be enjoying Chapman as a starter - likely in place of Leake, who has performed the worst in the rotation so far.

When compared to the two previous complete seasons of Cincinnati baseball, the Reds' April 2012 numbers stack up best of the group in the following categories:

ERA+ (109)
WHIP (1.29)
HR/9 (0.8)
K/BB (2.39)

BULLPEN

My grades for the relievers in April:
Chapman: A+
Ondrusek: A+
Arredondo: A
Simon: B-
LeCure: C-
Marshall: D
Bray: incomplete (injury, only 2.2 innings pitched)
Hoover: incomplete (only 3 inning pitched)

The relief corps has done very well, only allowing 23% of inherited runners to score, and holding opposing batters to a .210 average.  The only problem is that we've had to lean so heavily on the top performers. 

Aroldis Chapman and Logan Ondrusek have been absolute maniacs, with a combined 23.1 scoreless innings where they've allowed only 19 total baserunners (knock on wood).

ROTATION

I'd grade our five as follows:
Cueto: A+ 
Arroyo: A (great bounceback from 2011 so far, and we've needed it with Leake's dropoff)
Bailey: C+
Latos: D
Leake: F

It's reasonable to expect that Cueto and Bailey will finish the season roughly where they are now.  Arroyo will probably regress a bit, and hopefully both Latos and Leake (or a replacement for Leake) will improve enough to more than offset that, giving the Reds a very solid rotation.  Likely not enough to get the Reds a division title (unless they make a significant hitting acquisition), but very good nonetheless.

A few more random notes on the rotation:

OK: The starters' 1st inning ERA is about a run better than last year, but still a run worse than 2010


BAD: The batting average against our starters is the highest of the past three seasons, with only Cueto's lower than league average.

GOOD: The Reds' daytime ERA is only 3.06, meaning both our bats and our arms are best in the sunlight.  Just wish we had more day games...

BAD: The starters have only achieved 50% quality starts and are averaging only 6 innings per start, due mostly to high pitch counts.  

BAD: All five starters are striking out less than 20% of batters faced, including Latos with the worst rate of his career so far.


INDIVIDUAL STATS:


Best Win Probability Added:
Chapman 1.1
Ondrusek 0.8
Cueto 0.7


Worst WPA: 
Marshall, Leake and Latos: -0.7


Best ERA+
Cueto 273 (best of career)
Arredondo 154 (best of career)
Arroyo 141 (best since 2006)


Worst ERA+
Leake 58 (his worst of past three seasons)
Latos 64 (his worst of past three seasons)
LeCure 70 (his worst of past three seasons)


As you can see, these ERA+ numbers are all more severe in both directions than they'll ultimately be for the entirety of 2012...hopefully the positive changes outweigh the negative over the balance of the season.

A few more stats on the Reds' April Offense

Win Probability Added (a value of 1.0 means, essentially, this player has contributed one win to the team):
Best:
Votto 1.2 
Bruce: 0.6 
Cozart 0.5


Worst:
Stubbs -0.6
Harris -0.6
Rolen - 0.4

For the following two metrics, I compared the entire year of 2011 to April 2012 numbers. 


Line-drive percentage (18% is league average)


Improved significantly from 2011:
Bruce - 23 (18 last year)
Rolen - 20 (17)
Cozart - 19 (13)


Declined significantly from 2011:
Phillips - 17 (21 last year)
Stubbs - 16 (20)
Heisey - 15 (20)


The best on the team for this stat is, of course, Joey Votto, checking in at 26% for both years.


Strike-out rate (20% is league average)

Improved significantly from 2011:
Stubbs - 26 (30 last year)
Heisey - 20 (25)
Mesoraco - 8 (19)


Declined significantly from 2011:
Rolen - 20 (13)

You might be surprised to hear that Votto strikes out more than the league average, at 24%.

Review of the Reds' April Offense

The last three seasons, the Reds have finished April with strikingly similar records:
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012


As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends.  I'll keep each summary brief.  Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split).  In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.


One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair.  Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month.  A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.




BATTING ORDER: 
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.


Leadoff:


2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)




Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49


The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.




The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season.  BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.




BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:


Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010.  Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions.  We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.


The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.


Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46


Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56




Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55


SITUATIONAL TRENDS:




Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123




Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49






Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise.  We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws.  1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term.  C and 2B should be okay.  3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.