The last three seasons, the Reds have finished April with strikingly similar records:
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012
As
we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so
it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends. I'll keep each
summary brief. Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus
slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the
sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split). In
both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score
being preferred.
One caveat - the Reds have started
somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to
full seasons of work isn't entirely fair. Therefore, I considered only
the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be
explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month. A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.
BATTING ORDER:
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.
Leadoff:
2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)
Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49
The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.
The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good
- he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this
season. BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.
BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:
Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming
downward trend since 2010. Catcher and second base are less worrisome,
due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other
positions. We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and
BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive
numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.
The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.
Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46
Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56
Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55
SITUATIONAL TRENDS:
Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123
Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49
Conclusions:
None of these trends should
really come as a surprise. We knew that the personnel on this team had
some offensive flaws. 1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and
long-term. C and 2B should be okay. 3B, LF and CF are true problems,
and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Reds' 2012 salaries vs. 2011 WAR
I wanted to look at the value the Reds can expect to get for their money this season, using Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement, and player salaries from Cot's MLB Contracts (with pro-rated bonuses, deferred money, etc. included).
If you want to see the Reds' committed cash for 2012 and beyond, see:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj1FG9GPVGFzrJykhM94ogw&output=html
First, I divided everyone into two groups.
Group 1 = everyone with 6+ years of service time, or with salary above $600,000
Group 2 = everyone else
I used 2011 WAR, and obviously 2012 will differ...the whole point of the exercise is to use this as a baseline and see how everything ultimately shakes out in comparison.
GROUP 1
For Group 1, the entire amount of money committed = 81.243 million dollars
For Group 1, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 30.3
Millions spent per win above replacement = 2.68
More breakdowns for Group 1
Millions per WAR, hitters only = 2.08
Millions per WAR, pitchers only = 4.04 (thanks largely to Arroyo)
Millions per WAR, returning Reds only = 2.54
Let's take a look at individual players in Group 1, ranked by millions per WAR, going from best value to worst value. The players at the very bottom have no values assigned, because dividing by zero (or negative numbers) isn't possible (or logical).
1) Miguel Cairo - 0.53
2) Ryan Hanigan - 0.6
3) Sean Marshall - 1.11
4) Jay Bruce - 1.52
5) Joey Votto - 1.59 - will jump to around 3 million per WAR next season, assuming production is the same
6) Homer Bailey - 1.62
7) Johnny Cueto - 1.93
8) Bill Bray - 2.03
9) Brandon Phillips - 2.04 - but can he keep producing on both offense and defense like he did in 2011?
(GROUP 1 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = POOR VALUE FOR MONEY)
10) Nick Masset - 4.00 - had a bad year in 2011, hopefully bounces back
11) Ryan Madson - 5.00 - and actually worse, now that he's out
12) Aroldis Chapman - 5.83 - this number would undoubtedly improve if he started instead
13) Scott Rolen - 6.28 - a healthy year would help a great deal
14) Ryan Ludwick - 8.33 - Reds are taking a risk, hoping he can post more than 0.3 WAR
(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)
15) Wilson Valdez
16) Jose Arredondo
17) Willie Harris
18) Paul Janish
19) Bronson Arroyo - being paid 12 million
Note that the salaries of Valdez, Arredondo, Harris and Janish are all under 1 million, so at least the amount of money "wasted" (if they don't improve in 2012) would not be terribly painful. Also note that neither Madson nor Janish is on the major league active roster.
GROUP 2
For Group 2, the entire amount of money committed = 5.49 million dollars
For Group 2, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 11.5
Millions spent per win above replacement = 0.48
Obviously, any positive contributions from this second group (which are a necessity for any team) will make the millions/WAR appear much more favorable than Group 1. Teams still deserve some credit for picking the right guys though.
Individual players, from best value to worst value (millions per WAR):
1) Mat Latos - 0.17
2) Drew Stubbs - 0.20
3) Chris Heisey - 0.31
4) Mike Leake - 0.34
5) Alfredo Simon - 0.44
(GROUP 2 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = LESS VALUE FOR MONEY)
6) Zack Cozart - 0.69 - but with a healthy year, he'll be one of the best values on the team
7) Todd Frazier - 0.69 - we all like the guy, but very much hope he won't be needed
8) Sam LeCure - 0.98
(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)
9) Andrew Brackman
10) Jordan Smith
11) Logan Ondrusek
Note that Brackman, Frazier and Smith are not on the active major league roster. Also keep in mind that, at such comparatively small salaries, even a modest improvement this season for guys like Ondrusek or LeCure would make them excellent proportional values.
If you want to see the Reds' committed cash for 2012 and beyond, see:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj1FG9GPVGFzrJykhM94ogw&output=html
First, I divided everyone into two groups.
Group 1 = everyone with 6+ years of service time, or with salary above $600,000
Group 2 = everyone else
I used 2011 WAR, and obviously 2012 will differ...the whole point of the exercise is to use this as a baseline and see how everything ultimately shakes out in comparison.
GROUP 1
For Group 1, the entire amount of money committed = 81.243 million dollars
For Group 1, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 30.3
Millions spent per win above replacement = 2.68
More breakdowns for Group 1
Millions per WAR, hitters only = 2.08
Millions per WAR, pitchers only = 4.04 (thanks largely to Arroyo)
Millions per WAR, returning Reds only = 2.54
Let's take a look at individual players in Group 1, ranked by millions per WAR, going from best value to worst value. The players at the very bottom have no values assigned, because dividing by zero (or negative numbers) isn't possible (or logical).
1) Miguel Cairo - 0.53
2) Ryan Hanigan - 0.6
3) Sean Marshall - 1.11
4) Jay Bruce - 1.52
5) Joey Votto - 1.59 - will jump to around 3 million per WAR next season, assuming production is the same
6) Homer Bailey - 1.62
7) Johnny Cueto - 1.93
8) Bill Bray - 2.03
9) Brandon Phillips - 2.04 - but can he keep producing on both offense and defense like he did in 2011?
(GROUP 1 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = POOR VALUE FOR MONEY)
10) Nick Masset - 4.00 - had a bad year in 2011, hopefully bounces back
11) Ryan Madson - 5.00 - and actually worse, now that he's out
12) Aroldis Chapman - 5.83 - this number would undoubtedly improve if he started instead
13) Scott Rolen - 6.28 - a healthy year would help a great deal
14) Ryan Ludwick - 8.33 - Reds are taking a risk, hoping he can post more than 0.3 WAR
(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)
15) Wilson Valdez
16) Jose Arredondo
17) Willie Harris
18) Paul Janish
19) Bronson Arroyo - being paid 12 million
Note that the salaries of Valdez, Arredondo, Harris and Janish are all under 1 million, so at least the amount of money "wasted" (if they don't improve in 2012) would not be terribly painful. Also note that neither Madson nor Janish is on the major league active roster.
GROUP 2
For Group 2, the entire amount of money committed = 5.49 million dollars
For Group 2, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 11.5
Millions spent per win above replacement = 0.48
Obviously, any positive contributions from this second group (which are a necessity for any team) will make the millions/WAR appear much more favorable than Group 1. Teams still deserve some credit for picking the right guys though.
Individual players, from best value to worst value (millions per WAR):
1) Mat Latos - 0.17
2) Drew Stubbs - 0.20
3) Chris Heisey - 0.31
4) Mike Leake - 0.34
5) Alfredo Simon - 0.44
(GROUP 2 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = LESS VALUE FOR MONEY)
6) Zack Cozart - 0.69 - but with a healthy year, he'll be one of the best values on the team
7) Todd Frazier - 0.69 - we all like the guy, but very much hope he won't be needed
8) Sam LeCure - 0.98
(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)
9) Andrew Brackman
10) Jordan Smith
11) Logan Ondrusek
Note that Brackman, Frazier and Smith are not on the active major league roster. Also keep in mind that, at such comparatively small salaries, even a modest improvement this season for guys like Ondrusek or LeCure would make them excellent proportional values.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
History of Cincinnati Reds Opening Day Starters
Thanks to Johnny Cueto, the Reds have had a true ace ready to go on Opening Day since 2012. It's nice to get the season off to a good start.
Before Cueto (and Harang, who was at least respectable) Cincinnati fans have endured some atrocious Opening Day starters, most notably from 2002 through 2005:
2002 - Joey Hamilton
2003 - Jimmy Haynes
2004 - Cory Lidle
2005 - Paul Wilson
An unbelievable list, isn't it?
The most Opening Day starts by Cincinnati pitchers:
1) Mario Soto - 6 (1982-86, 1988)
2) Aaron Harang - 5 (2006-10)
2) Pete Donohue - 5 (1923-27)
4) Johnny Cueto - 4 (2012-15)
4) Jose Rijo - 4 (1992-95)
4) Bucky Walters - 4 (1939, 1942, 1945-46)
7) Tom Seaver, Tom Browning, Gary Nolan, Jim O'Toole, Ewell Blackwell, Paul Derringer, Si Johnson all had the honor 3 times
Mario Soto also has the most Opening Day wins (4) and sadly, no other starter has more than 2. Dolf Luque recorded 2 as a starter and 1 in relief.
Aaron Harang has the most Opening Day losses (4). Jose Rijo and Bucky Walters both had 3.
The best Cincinnati Opening Day starting pitching performances (in chronological order):
1925 Pete Donohue - 9 IP, 0 R
1928 Dolf Luque - 9 IP, 1 R
1940 Paul Derringer - 9 IP, 1 R
1943 Johnny Vander Meer - 11 IP, 0 R
1959 Bob Purkey - 9 IP, 1 R
1961 Jim O'Toole - 9 IP, 1 R
1963 Jim O'Toole - 9 IP, 1 R
1970 Jim Merritt - 9 IP, 1 R
1975 Don Gullett - 9.2 IP, 1 R (no decision)
1980 Frank Pastore - 9 IP, 0 R
1984 Mario Soto - 9 IP, 1 R
1993 Jose Rijo - 8 IP, 0 R
And now Cueto, who has gone 7 innings in each of his four starts:
2012 - 7 IP, 0 R, 3 H, WIN vs. Marlins
2013 - 7 IP, 1 R, 3 H, ND (Reds lost to Angels in extras)
2014 - 7 IP, 1 R, 3 H, LOSS vs. Cardinals (Wainwright)
2015 - 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, ND (Reds won vs. Pittsburgh)
Before Cueto (and Harang, who was at least respectable) Cincinnati fans have endured some atrocious Opening Day starters, most notably from 2002 through 2005:
2002 - Joey Hamilton
2003 - Jimmy Haynes
2004 - Cory Lidle
2005 - Paul Wilson
An unbelievable list, isn't it?
The most Opening Day starts by Cincinnati pitchers:
1) Mario Soto - 6 (1982-86, 1988)
2) Aaron Harang - 5 (2006-10)
2) Pete Donohue - 5 (1923-27)
4) Johnny Cueto - 4 (2012-15)
4) Jose Rijo - 4 (1992-95)
4) Bucky Walters - 4 (1939, 1942, 1945-46)
7) Tom Seaver, Tom Browning, Gary Nolan, Jim O'Toole, Ewell Blackwell, Paul Derringer, Si Johnson all had the honor 3 times
Mario Soto also has the most Opening Day wins (4) and sadly, no other starter has more than 2. Dolf Luque recorded 2 as a starter and 1 in relief.
Aaron Harang has the most Opening Day losses (4). Jose Rijo and Bucky Walters both had 3.
The best Cincinnati Opening Day starting pitching performances (in chronological order):
1925 Pete Donohue - 9 IP, 0 R
1928 Dolf Luque - 9 IP, 1 R
1940 Paul Derringer - 9 IP, 1 R
1943 Johnny Vander Meer - 11 IP, 0 R
1959 Bob Purkey - 9 IP, 1 R
1961 Jim O'Toole - 9 IP, 1 R
1963 Jim O'Toole - 9 IP, 1 R
1970 Jim Merritt - 9 IP, 1 R
1975 Don Gullett - 9.2 IP, 1 R (no decision)
1980 Frank Pastore - 9 IP, 0 R
1984 Mario Soto - 9 IP, 1 R
1993 Jose Rijo - 8 IP, 0 R
And now Cueto, who has gone 7 innings in each of his four starts:
2012 - 7 IP, 0 R, 3 H, WIN vs. Marlins
2013 - 7 IP, 1 R, 3 H, ND (Reds lost to Angels in extras)
2014 - 7 IP, 1 R, 3 H, LOSS vs. Cardinals (Wainwright)
2015 - 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, ND (Reds won vs. Pittsburgh)
The men behind the win 4/5/12: Reds 4, Marlins 0
I'm no Marlins fan, to be sure, but before we get on to celebrating this excellent Opening Day victory, I want to thank their organization for three things:
1) Being such good sports for taking an embarrassing stadium-opening loss to Kyle Lohse, then heading straight up to Cincinnati for an afternoon game against a much better pitcher.
2) Changing their name to Miami, so "Back to the Future 2" can look even more prescient. The only problem was they had Miami facing the Cubs in the World Series, so one team has to move to the AL.
3) Changing their colors to a combination that thugs and wannabes apparently find even more appealing than that of our Redlegs. For years, I've never been sure whether I might say "go Reds" to someone in a Cincinnati hat and have them shoot me. The new Miami hat is everywhere, so honestly, a heartfelt thanks.
Now for the men behind today's win in front of a GABP record crowd...
1) Johnny Cueto. 2011's ace looks like 2012's ace, and I think we'd all be cool with that. No runs, 3 hits in 7 innings. Four strikeouts, 2 walks. Nobody reached third base. Beautiful work.
2) Jay Bruce. Hopefully 2012's Bruce can sustain effectiveness at the plate and in the field after a little dropoff (mostly defensively) in 2011. He was great today - 2 RBIs, including the first of the game (a sacrifice fly) in the 1st, and a solo homer in the 8th to put the Reds up 3-0.
3) Aroldis Chapman. It's really frustrating that we need him in the bullpen this year, but if he's stuck there, let him keep dominating like he did today. With only a 2-run lead in the top of the 8th inning, he held the Marlins in check (striking out two).
4) Zack Cozart. Great to see our shortstop go 2 for 4 in his first regular season game since the unfortunate injury last season. I really feel like this could be our first solid all-around SS since the Larkin days.
1-0. First place. 161 games to go.
1) Being such good sports for taking an embarrassing stadium-opening loss to Kyle Lohse, then heading straight up to Cincinnati for an afternoon game against a much better pitcher.
2) Changing their name to Miami, so "Back to the Future 2" can look even more prescient. The only problem was they had Miami facing the Cubs in the World Series, so one team has to move to the AL.
3) Changing their colors to a combination that thugs and wannabes apparently find even more appealing than that of our Redlegs. For years, I've never been sure whether I might say "go Reds" to someone in a Cincinnati hat and have them shoot me. The new Miami hat is everywhere, so honestly, a heartfelt thanks.
Now for the men behind today's win in front of a GABP record crowd...
1) Johnny Cueto. 2011's ace looks like 2012's ace, and I think we'd all be cool with that. No runs, 3 hits in 7 innings. Four strikeouts, 2 walks. Nobody reached third base. Beautiful work.
2) Jay Bruce. Hopefully 2012's Bruce can sustain effectiveness at the plate and in the field after a little dropoff (mostly defensively) in 2011. He was great today - 2 RBIs, including the first of the game (a sacrifice fly) in the 1st, and a solo homer in the 8th to put the Reds up 3-0.
3) Aroldis Chapman. It's really frustrating that we need him in the bullpen this year, but if he's stuck there, let him keep dominating like he did today. With only a 2-run lead in the top of the 8th inning, he held the Marlins in check (striking out two).
4) Zack Cozart. Great to see our shortstop go 2 for 4 in his first regular season game since the unfortunate injury last season. I really feel like this could be our first solid all-around SS since the Larkin days.
1-0. First place. 161 games to go.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
An analysis of MLB mascots
I highly encourage anyone and everyone to look into the history of MLB mascots. Just about every mascot has at least one embarrassing/amusing anecdote or backstory.
One good place to start is the Wikipedia article on the topic. The highlight for me, especially as a Reds fan, was the line: "Gapper is sometimes referred to as Groper due to his inability to keep his hands off the female fans." Whoever added that gem of a sentence is to be commended.
Four teams have no mascots - the Angels, Cubs, Dodgers and Yankees - and as you'll see below, that might be the best decision.
I've grouped the official mascots of MLB into several categories.
BIZARRE, PATHETIC AND WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEAM
(a.k.a. the "Olympic mascots")
DINGER (ROCKIES) - only exists because they found a triceratops skull while constructing Coors
SLIDER (INDIANS) - somehow this monstrosity is one of only three MLB mascots in the Mascot Hall of Fame!
JUNCTION JACK (ASTROS) - supposedly a rabbit railroad engineer, though he doesn't look the part here
LOU SEAL (GIANTS) - bravo for the wordplay
RAYMOND (RAYS) - even his body language is saying a big "WTF???"
SOUTHPAW (WHITE SOX) - the nappy condition of his fur suits this generic, lame excuse for a mascot
SLUGGERRR (ROYALS) - I know all mascots arrre disturrrbing but this picturrre rrreally will give me nightmarrres
WALLY (RED SOX) - much like the Reds' "Gapper" (who thankfully is not the primary mascot), this one is based entirely on a structural feature of the ballpark.
RELATIVELY NORMAL CHARACTERS, WITH POOR EXCUSES FOR EXISTENCE
D. BAXTER THE BOBCAT (DBACKS) - get it? At least the pun made more sense when it was Bank One Ballpark (BOB). Now it's really a stretch.
HOMER (BRAVES) - get it? "Home of the Braves?" LOLOLOLOLOL
RANGERS CAPTAIN (RANGERS) - OK, I guess I've seen Chuck Norris on a horse
T.C. BEAR (TWINS) - the backstory doesn't even try to sound convincing. "Loosely modeled" after the mascot of an early sponsor?
ACE (BLUE JAYS) - in 2004, he lost his co-mascot girlfriend "Diamond." In 2010, he lost his excuse to exist when Roy Halladay went to the Phillies. Unsurprisingly, it looks like he's trying to play the skin flute in the image below.
MARINER MOOSE (MARINERS) - there's so much wrong with the first paragraph of his Wikipedia page, I might as well just paste it all here. In 1990, a contest for children 14 and under was held to select a mascot for the team under then-owner Jeff Smulyan. Out of 2500 entries received, the club chose the "Mariner Moose," originally submitted by Ammon Spiller of Ferndale, Washington.[1] The Moose made his debut on April 13, 1990,[2] dancing on the field at the Kingdome to "The Future's So Bright I Gotta Wear Shades" by Timbuk 3.
COMPLETELY SENSICAL, BUT LAUGHABLE DESIGN
FREDBIRD (CARDINALS) - looks like a middle school-quality costume
THE ORIOLE BIRD (ORIOLES) - see description of Fredbird
PAWS (TIGERS) - paying $214 million to a fat man is Grrrrrrrrrrreat! Tony would be proud.
SCREECH (NATIONALS) - patriotic theme makes sense, but the bird itself was the only living thing excited about its birth
BILLY THE MARLIN (MARLINS) - I honestly didn't mind this one that much until the re-branding...the new color scheme somehow makes him ten times more Sandusky
SWINGING FRIAR (PADRES) - speaking of Sandusky, don't let your kids near this guy's frock.
OLD AND OFFENSIVELY NAMED
CHIEF NOC-A-HOMA (BRAVES) - the shoes really complete the authentic ensemble
BJ BIRDY (BLUE JAYS) - with a name like that, it's no surprise he was ejected from a game for offensive gestures toward an umpire
DEFUNCT AND BIZARRE
DANDY (YANKEES) - at my hot dog stand, things like this would have to pay triple
ROOTIN' TOOTIN' RANGER (RANGERS) - the Yosemite Sam who stole Christmas
YOUPPI (EXPOS) - shown here in Canadiens gear. While I hate that hockey team, at least Youppi survived.
We are left with only six survivors...
THE ELITE
MR. MET - he's been around (continuously) longer than any other mascot on this list
STOMPER (ATHLETICS) - while the name is only 15 years old, the elephant dates back to Connie Mack
PHILLIE PHANATIC (PHILLIES) - the prototype for "WTF?" mascots
PIRATE PARROT (PIRATES) - At age 6, he went on trial for introducing cocaine to Pittsburgh players (not joking) yet somehow the mascot lives on to this day. Impressive!
BERNIE BREWER (BREWERS) - I support mustaches, I support drunks, and I support the fact that he's based on a real dude who camped out on top of a scoreboard as an attendance gimmick.
MR. REDLEGS - is watching you. Always. (scroll to the top of the page if you need reminding)
One good place to start is the Wikipedia article on the topic. The highlight for me, especially as a Reds fan, was the line: "Gapper is sometimes referred to as Groper due to his inability to keep his hands off the female fans." Whoever added that gem of a sentence is to be commended.
Four teams have no mascots - the Angels, Cubs, Dodgers and Yankees - and as you'll see below, that might be the best decision.
I've grouped the official mascots of MLB into several categories.
BIZARRE, PATHETIC AND WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEAM
(a.k.a. the "Olympic mascots")
DINGER (ROCKIES) - only exists because they found a triceratops skull while constructing Coors
SLIDER (INDIANS) - somehow this monstrosity is one of only three MLB mascots in the Mascot Hall of Fame!
JUNCTION JACK (ASTROS) - supposedly a rabbit railroad engineer, though he doesn't look the part here
LOU SEAL (GIANTS) - bravo for the wordplay
RAYMOND (RAYS) - even his body language is saying a big "WTF???"
SOUTHPAW (WHITE SOX) - the nappy condition of his fur suits this generic, lame excuse for a mascot
SLUGGERRR (ROYALS) - I know all mascots arrre disturrrbing but this picturrre rrreally will give me nightmarrres
WALLY (RED SOX) - much like the Reds' "Gapper" (who thankfully is not the primary mascot), this one is based entirely on a structural feature of the ballpark.
RELATIVELY NORMAL CHARACTERS, WITH POOR EXCUSES FOR EXISTENCE
D. BAXTER THE BOBCAT (DBACKS) - get it? At least the pun made more sense when it was Bank One Ballpark (BOB). Now it's really a stretch.
HOMER (BRAVES) - get it? "Home of the Braves?" LOLOLOLOLOL
RANGERS CAPTAIN (RANGERS) - OK, I guess I've seen Chuck Norris on a horse
T.C. BEAR (TWINS) - the backstory doesn't even try to sound convincing. "Loosely modeled" after the mascot of an early sponsor?
ACE (BLUE JAYS) - in 2004, he lost his co-mascot girlfriend "Diamond." In 2010, he lost his excuse to exist when Roy Halladay went to the Phillies. Unsurprisingly, it looks like he's trying to play the skin flute in the image below.
MARINER MOOSE (MARINERS) - there's so much wrong with the first paragraph of his Wikipedia page, I might as well just paste it all here. In 1990, a contest for children 14 and under was held to select a mascot for the team under then-owner Jeff Smulyan. Out of 2500 entries received, the club chose the "Mariner Moose," originally submitted by Ammon Spiller of Ferndale, Washington.[1] The Moose made his debut on April 13, 1990,[2] dancing on the field at the Kingdome to "The Future's So Bright I Gotta Wear Shades" by Timbuk 3.
COMPLETELY SENSICAL, BUT LAUGHABLE DESIGN
FREDBIRD (CARDINALS) - looks like a middle school-quality costume
THE ORIOLE BIRD (ORIOLES) - see description of Fredbird
PAWS (TIGERS) - paying $214 million to a fat man is Grrrrrrrrrrreat! Tony would be proud.
SCREECH (NATIONALS) - patriotic theme makes sense, but the bird itself was the only living thing excited about its birth
BILLY THE MARLIN (MARLINS) - I honestly didn't mind this one that much until the re-branding...the new color scheme somehow makes him ten times more Sandusky
SWINGING FRIAR (PADRES) - speaking of Sandusky, don't let your kids near this guy's frock.
OLD AND OFFENSIVELY NAMED
CHIEF NOC-A-HOMA (BRAVES) - the shoes really complete the authentic ensemble
BJ BIRDY (BLUE JAYS) - with a name like that, it's no surprise he was ejected from a game for offensive gestures toward an umpire
DEFUNCT AND BIZARRE
DANDY (YANKEES) - at my hot dog stand, things like this would have to pay triple
ROOTIN' TOOTIN' RANGER (RANGERS) - the Yosemite Sam who stole Christmas
YOUPPI (EXPOS) - shown here in Canadiens gear. While I hate that hockey team, at least Youppi survived.
We are left with only six survivors...
THE ELITE
MR. MET - he's been around (continuously) longer than any other mascot on this list
STOMPER (ATHLETICS) - while the name is only 15 years old, the elephant dates back to Connie Mack
PHILLIE PHANATIC (PHILLIES) - the prototype for "WTF?" mascots
PIRATE PARROT (PIRATES) - At age 6, he went on trial for introducing cocaine to Pittsburgh players (not joking) yet somehow the mascot lives on to this day. Impressive!
BERNIE BREWER (BREWERS) - I support mustaches, I support drunks, and I support the fact that he's based on a real dude who camped out on top of a scoreboard as an attendance gimmick.
MR. REDLEGS - is watching you. Always. (scroll to the top of the page if you need reminding)
Reds 2012 WAR: Position Players
Using Fangraphs' wonderful WAR Graphs tool, here are some charts of the careers (by age) of Cincinnati's main projected infielders, outfielders, and pitchers for 2012.
Positions 3-6
Note: Both Cozart and Frazier were 25, with WAR of 0.7 on this graph.
My thoughts on this: We'd obviously be delighted to get the same sort of production in 2012 from the right side of our infield that we got in 2011. It's difficult to imagine the left side doing any worse...one would have to think that either Rolen or Cozart will stay healthy and productive enough to boost their WAR. Outside of those two possibilities, I don't have much faith in any combination of Janish/Francisco/Valdez/Frazier/Cairo/call-ups to provide big numbers.
Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 13.1 (all these totals according to baseball-reference, not Fangraphs)
My estimate for 2012: 15.0
Positions 7-9
My thoughts on this: The entire outfield really needs to prove itself. Bruce is clearly the class of this group but needs more consistency. He and Stubbs went downhill from 2010 to 2011 (Bruce mostly due to defense, Stubbs mostly due to strikeouts). It really feels like THE year for both of them to show improvement (at least getting very close to a return to 2010 levels) or they may never be quite the players for which we hoped. I'm fine with Ludwick as a relatively low-risk acquisition, although obviously all of us wanted a splashier solution in LF...hopefully he and Heisey can push each other to at least a modestly successful performance. Alonso, Sappelt, Lewis and Gomes are all gone from the 2011 group.
Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 6.2
My estimate for 2012: 8.0
Catchers
Note: Mesoraco was 23, with WAR of -0.1 on this graph.
My thoughts on this: Ramon's offense will be missed, but Hanigan is still a good contact hitter and solid defensively, and Devin has nowhere to go but up.
Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 3.6
My estimate for 2012: 4.0
Total WAR estimate for position players: 27 (+4.1 from 2011)
Conclusion: As everyone knows, the Two Princes (if you want to call me baby, just go ahead now) have moved to the AL and Brauny Lad is a 'roider on suspension. While some want to automatically crown the Reds the offensive champions of the 2012 NL Central, we still need to see more out of guys other than Votto and Phillips. One thing I always harp on is the fact that the Reds offense is extremely opportunistic and therefore somewhat overrated. I do feel they will lead the NL in runs scored in 2012 (they were tied for second with Colorado, 27 runs behind St. Louis).
Positions 3-6
My thoughts on this: We'd obviously be delighted to get the same sort of production in 2012 from the right side of our infield that we got in 2011. It's difficult to imagine the left side doing any worse...one would have to think that either Rolen or Cozart will stay healthy and productive enough to boost their WAR. Outside of those two possibilities, I don't have much faith in any combination of Janish/Francisco/Valdez/Frazier/Cairo/call-ups to provide big numbers.
Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 13.1 (all these totals according to baseball-reference, not Fangraphs)
My estimate for 2012: 15.0
Positions 7-9
My thoughts on this: The entire outfield really needs to prove itself. Bruce is clearly the class of this group but needs more consistency. He and Stubbs went downhill from 2010 to 2011 (Bruce mostly due to defense, Stubbs mostly due to strikeouts). It really feels like THE year for both of them to show improvement (at least getting very close to a return to 2010 levels) or they may never be quite the players for which we hoped. I'm fine with Ludwick as a relatively low-risk acquisition, although obviously all of us wanted a splashier solution in LF...hopefully he and Heisey can push each other to at least a modestly successful performance. Alonso, Sappelt, Lewis and Gomes are all gone from the 2011 group.
Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 6.2
My estimate for 2012: 8.0
Catchers
My thoughts on this: Ramon's offense will be missed, but Hanigan is still a good contact hitter and solid defensively, and Devin has nowhere to go but up.
Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 3.6
My estimate for 2012: 4.0
Total WAR estimate for position players: 27 (+4.1 from 2011)
Conclusion: As everyone knows, the Two Princes (if you want to call me baby, just go ahead now) have moved to the AL and Brauny Lad is a 'roider on suspension. While some want to automatically crown the Reds the offensive champions of the 2012 NL Central, we still need to see more out of guys other than Votto and Phillips. One thing I always harp on is the fact that the Reds offense is extremely opportunistic and therefore somewhat overrated. I do feel they will lead the NL in runs scored in 2012 (they were tied for second with Colorado, 27 runs behind St. Louis).
Saturday, October 1, 2011
The best- and worst-run MLB franchises
I've been looking at payroll vs. results from a variety of angles. Some argue, based on the Rays' ability to make the playoffs and the Marlins' two World Series titles, that the class disparity in MLB is overblown. While it's true that high-payroll teams can struggle if poorly managed and low-payroll teams can succeed with good management, scouting and a little luck, it's still much easier to win big if you pay big. I'll show a couple graphs to support my viewpoint in some upcoming posts. For now I wanted to focus on the teams that have been managed well and managed poorly.
I examined the period from 1998-2011. The dramatic payroll class disparity started forming in the mid-90s, but since 1998 was the most recent expansion and I wanted to average evenly across years for all teams, I started with that timepoint. I then broke the teams down into four tiers based on the average number of millions spent in payroll for each regular season win achieved.
Tier 1 ($1.1 million or more per win) - Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Cubs
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 7
Best-managed - Yankees (13 playoffs/4 titles), Red Sox (8/2)
Worst-managed - Mets (3/0), Cubs (4/0)
Tier 2 ($900,000 to 1.099 million per win) - Cardinals, Braves, Angels, Phillies, Giants, White Sox, Astros, Rangers, Orioles, Tigers, Mariners
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 4.36
Best-managed - Cardinals (8 playoffs/1 title), Braves (9/0), Angels (6/1)
Worst-managed - Orioles (0/0), Tigers (2/0), Mariners (2/0)
Tier 3 ($700,000 to 899,000 per win) - Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Indians, Blue Jays, Reds, Rockies, Brewers
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 2.57
Best-managed - Diamondbacks (5 playoffs/1 title)
Worst-managed - Blue Jays (0/0), Reds (1/0)
Tier 4 (less than $700,000 per win) - Twins, Athletics, Rays, Padres, Marlins, Nationals/Expos, Pirates, Royals
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 2.25
Best-managed - Twins (6 playoffs/0 titles), Athletics (5/0)
Worst-managed - Nationals (0/0), Pirates (0/0), Royals (0/0)
So during this 14-year period, if I had to rank the teams based on overall results achieved for money spent, I'd list them as follows.
The best:
1) Yankees
2) Cardinals
3) Twins
4) Braves
5) Red Sox
6) Diamondbacks
7) Athletics
8) Angels
The worst:
1) Orioles
2) Mets
3) Blue Jays
4) Cubs
5) Mariners
6) Tigers
7) Reds
8-10) Nationals/Pirates/Royals
Teams that don't appear on either list but are trending upward: Phillies and Rays (especially if either wins a title this season)
Teams that don't appear on either list but are trending downward: Dodgers, White Sox, Astros
I examined the period from 1998-2011. The dramatic payroll class disparity started forming in the mid-90s, but since 1998 was the most recent expansion and I wanted to average evenly across years for all teams, I started with that timepoint. I then broke the teams down into four tiers based on the average number of millions spent in payroll for each regular season win achieved.
Tier 1 ($1.1 million or more per win) - Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Cubs
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 7
Best-managed - Yankees (13 playoffs/4 titles), Red Sox (8/2)
Worst-managed - Mets (3/0), Cubs (4/0)
Tier 2 ($900,000 to 1.099 million per win) - Cardinals, Braves, Angels, Phillies, Giants, White Sox, Astros, Rangers, Orioles, Tigers, Mariners
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 4.36
Best-managed - Cardinals (8 playoffs/1 title), Braves (9/0), Angels (6/1)
Worst-managed - Orioles (0/0), Tigers (2/0), Mariners (2/0)
Tier 3 ($700,000 to 899,000 per win) - Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Indians, Blue Jays, Reds, Rockies, Brewers
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 2.57
Best-managed - Diamondbacks (5 playoffs/1 title)
Worst-managed - Blue Jays (0/0), Reds (1/0)
Tier 4 (less than $700,000 per win) - Twins, Athletics, Rays, Padres, Marlins, Nationals/Expos, Pirates, Royals
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 2.25
Best-managed - Twins (6 playoffs/0 titles), Athletics (5/0)
Worst-managed - Nationals (0/0), Pirates (0/0), Royals (0/0)
So during this 14-year period, if I had to rank the teams based on overall results achieved for money spent, I'd list them as follows.
The best:
1) Yankees
2) Cardinals
3) Twins
4) Braves
5) Red Sox
6) Diamondbacks
7) Athletics
8) Angels
The worst:
1) Orioles
2) Mets
3) Blue Jays
4) Cubs
5) Mariners
6) Tigers
7) Reds
8-10) Nationals/Pirates/Royals
Teams that don't appear on either list but are trending upward: Phillies and Rays (especially if either wins a title this season)
Teams that don't appear on either list but are trending downward: Dodgers, White Sox, Astros
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