The Reds got back above .500 in style with their second walk-off win of the series and a sweep of Washington. Johnny Cueto is still stuck on 9 wins in spite of his 2.05 ERA, but only positive vibes surround this team right now on its current 4-game win streak.
1) Joey Votto. A home run to begin the Reds' scoring in the 1st, and another in the bottom of the 14th. Neither one cleared the wall by much, but they all count the same. Well, a solo shot doesn't count the same as a grand slam, but you get my meaning.
2) Yonder Alonso. The guy never gets to play, but he hits and hits and hits when he does. The pinch-hit tying shot in the bottom of the 9th was ridiculously clutch.
3) Jose Arredondo. Held the Nats scoreless for 3 straight extra innings of relief (11th-13th).
4) Johnny Cueto. Scattered 9 hits over 7 innings and recorded a career-high 11 strikeouts (previously mowed down 10 twice, both times in 2008). Walked only 1, which was a welcome sight after his control problems in Miami, although he also hit two batters, so maybe that's a reach.
Honorable mention: Ryan Hanigan (reached base 5 of 6 times), BP (another multi-hit day in the leadoff spot), Bill Bray (got the win with a scoreless 14th).
Red LOBster: Jay Bruce left a whopping 8 on in one game! We'll forgive him thanks to his homer in the 4th.
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Reds Sac Up, Beat Nats 6-3: The men behind the win 8/27/11
The story tonight? Sacrifice flies. 3 of them in one game is a welcome sight for Reds fans accustomed to failure in clutch situations this season. This was only the 34th time in Reds history that the team got three SFs in one game.
1) Brandon Phillips. He continues to dominate the leadoff spot, and is now 19 for 43 in his 10 games since re-assuming the position. This is the first 10 game hitting streak for a Red leadoff man since Willy Taveras in 2009, who hit in 14 games in a row (going 24 for 59 overall) from 4/29 to 5/13 and then proceeded to absolutely suck the rest of the season. But back to BP...after tonight's 2 for 4 performance, with 2 more runs scored and another RBI, his average is dangerously close to .300. The only negative: he was charged with his 6th error of the season.
2) Mike Leake. The team leader in wins (11-8 record now) turned in another quality start. The two solo bombs served up to Werth and Ramos in the third were frustrating, but he settled in, battling through a tough 4th and limiting the Nats to 2 runs in 6 innings. There is really no question - he has been the second most reliable starter behind Cueto.
3) Drew Stubbs. Went 3 for 3 and had one of the sacrifice flies, giving the Reds a 4-2 lead in the bottom of the third. It was his eighth game of the season with 3 or more hits.
4) Francisco Cordero. Coming off a shaky performance in the Marlins finale, he buckled down for a 1-2-3 ninth in this one and is now 12 for 12 in save opportunities since the All-Star Break. 29 of 34 for the season.
Having already locked up their third series win in a row (!) and finally battled back to .500 (!) the Reds go for a sweep tomorrow with a pitchers' duel - Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto take the mound at GABP. This is only the second time all year the Reds have won 3 or more series in a row; they won 5 in a row in May (HOU, @CHC, @HOU, STL, CHC).
1) Brandon Phillips. He continues to dominate the leadoff spot, and is now 19 for 43 in his 10 games since re-assuming the position. This is the first 10 game hitting streak for a Red leadoff man since Willy Taveras in 2009, who hit in 14 games in a row (going 24 for 59 overall) from 4/29 to 5/13 and then proceeded to absolutely suck the rest of the season. But back to BP...after tonight's 2 for 4 performance, with 2 more runs scored and another RBI, his average is dangerously close to .300. The only negative: he was charged with his 6th error of the season.
2) Mike Leake. The team leader in wins (11-8 record now) turned in another quality start. The two solo bombs served up to Werth and Ramos in the third were frustrating, but he settled in, battling through a tough 4th and limiting the Nats to 2 runs in 6 innings. There is really no question - he has been the second most reliable starter behind Cueto.
3) Drew Stubbs. Went 3 for 3 and had one of the sacrifice flies, giving the Reds a 4-2 lead in the bottom of the third. It was his eighth game of the season with 3 or more hits.
4) Francisco Cordero. Coming off a shaky performance in the Marlins finale, he buckled down for a 1-2-3 ninth in this one and is now 12 for 12 in save opportunities since the All-Star Break. 29 of 34 for the season.
Having already locked up their third series win in a row (!) and finally battled back to .500 (!) the Reds go for a sweep tomorrow with a pitchers' duel - Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto take the mound at GABP. This is only the second time all year the Reds have won 3 or more series in a row; they won 5 in a row in May (HOU, @CHC, @HOU, STL, CHC).
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Reds 8 Marlins 6: The men behind the win 8/23/11
Let's get all the bad news out of the way first:
- Cueto wasn't sharp: he gave up 6 walks for only the third time ever, and as his pitch count mounted he finally melted down in the 5th after some admirable escapes. Still have to love the guy, he's amazing.
- Hernandez and Janish combined for 10 LOB (co-Red LOBsters of the night), 6 of those in one hideous inning (the 6th) where the Reds loaded 'em up with nobody out and didn't score.
- LeCure AND Masset continued their August struggles, getting tagged for 3 more runs in relief.
Gee, with all that it sounds like a loss, but it wasn't. So on to the heroes:
1) None other than Yonder Alonso. He was given a chance to start in his return to Miami, and made the most of it with 3 hits (1B, 2B, HR) and 4 RBI including the 2 that provided the final margin in the Reds' awesome rally in the top of the 9th. For the second straight game, the Reds rallied by making mincemeat of a usually-tough closer (Hanrahan Sunday, Nunez tonight).
2) Another youngster, Dave Sappelt. Unlike Alonso, he had been shaky since his call-up...but tonight was fantastic. 3 hits, including the 2-run double that tied it in the 9th to set the stage for Alonso. If he can give us more nights like this, he'll solidify his spot in the outfield for 2012.
3) Francisco Cordero. He was horrendous in the Milwaukee series right before the break, but consider his stats since then: 14 appearances (15 IP) with only 1 run allowed, and 10 for 10 in save opportunities. Tonight was another shutdown performance to end the slugfest.
4) Jay Bruce. His 2-run blast in the top of the 7th came in an inning that had felt dead (until Sappelt's infield single with 2 outs), and with the Reds' chances for a win fading. That cut the Marlins' lead to 5-4 and the rest is history.
Honorable mention to BP, who continues to rake this month and has his average all the way up to .294. He's been a beast since moving to the leadoff spot.
- Cueto wasn't sharp: he gave up 6 walks for only the third time ever, and as his pitch count mounted he finally melted down in the 5th after some admirable escapes. Still have to love the guy, he's amazing.
- Hernandez and Janish combined for 10 LOB (co-Red LOBsters of the night), 6 of those in one hideous inning (the 6th) where the Reds loaded 'em up with nobody out and didn't score.
- LeCure AND Masset continued their August struggles, getting tagged for 3 more runs in relief.
Gee, with all that it sounds like a loss, but it wasn't. So on to the heroes:
1) None other than Yonder Alonso. He was given a chance to start in his return to Miami, and made the most of it with 3 hits (1B, 2B, HR) and 4 RBI including the 2 that provided the final margin in the Reds' awesome rally in the top of the 9th. For the second straight game, the Reds rallied by making mincemeat of a usually-tough closer (Hanrahan Sunday, Nunez tonight).
2) Another youngster, Dave Sappelt. Unlike Alonso, he had been shaky since his call-up...but tonight was fantastic. 3 hits, including the 2-run double that tied it in the 9th to set the stage for Alonso. If he can give us more nights like this, he'll solidify his spot in the outfield for 2012.
3) Francisco Cordero. He was horrendous in the Milwaukee series right before the break, but consider his stats since then: 14 appearances (15 IP) with only 1 run allowed, and 10 for 10 in save opportunities. Tonight was another shutdown performance to end the slugfest.
4) Jay Bruce. His 2-run blast in the top of the 7th came in an inning that had felt dead (until Sappelt's infield single with 2 outs), and with the Reds' chances for a win fading. That cut the Marlins' lead to 5-4 and the rest is history.
Honorable mention to BP, who continues to rake this month and has his average all the way up to .294. He's been a beast since moving to the leadoff spot.
Random MLB Umpire Facts
- There are 17 MLB crews consisting of four umpires each. At any given time, 15 are working and 2 are on vacation.
- In 2000 they consolidated AL and NL umpires. Each crew travels around randomly, with its advance schedule kept (mostly) secret by MLB for various reasons including gambling and personal safety.
- Because each crew works about 140 games, each umpire will be behind home plate about 35 times a season, and therefore see each MLB team an average of 2-3 times. Obviously due to scheduling quirks and other issues, sometimes a team gets a particular home plate umpire zero times, or even seven or eight in a year. It used to be much more common to see one umpire that frequently.
- A few extremely hitter-friendly umpires: Tim Tschida (very few Ks, lots of BBs, and lots of runs), Tim McClelland (most runs per game), Dana DeMuth (highest percentage of OVER on betting lines), Joe West
- A few pitcher-friendly umpires: Lance Barksdale, Vic Carapazza, Gary Darling, CB Bucknor
- If you're a Cincinnati Reds fan, two guys you don't want to see spooning with the catcher are Laz Diaz and Mark Wegner. For no known reason, both guys have it out for the Reds, who are 6-23 all-time with Diaz behind the plate and 5-24 all-time with Wegner. Diaz has already dropped three more Ls on the Reds in 2011, while Wegner (thankfully) has had a limited schedule due to a leg injury in May and hasn't seen the Reds yet. Obviously the players are the biggest deciding factor in any game, but when numbers are as statistically significant as with these two umps, you have to wonder.
Sources for my research: baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, thespread.com
- In 2000 they consolidated AL and NL umpires. Each crew travels around randomly, with its advance schedule kept (mostly) secret by MLB for various reasons including gambling and personal safety.
- Because each crew works about 140 games, each umpire will be behind home plate about 35 times a season, and therefore see each MLB team an average of 2-3 times. Obviously due to scheduling quirks and other issues, sometimes a team gets a particular home plate umpire zero times, or even seven or eight in a year. It used to be much more common to see one umpire that frequently.
- A few extremely hitter-friendly umpires: Tim Tschida (very few Ks, lots of BBs, and lots of runs), Tim McClelland (most runs per game), Dana DeMuth (highest percentage of OVER on betting lines), Joe West
- A few pitcher-friendly umpires: Lance Barksdale, Vic Carapazza, Gary Darling, CB Bucknor
- If you're a Cincinnati Reds fan, two guys you don't want to see spooning with the catcher are Laz Diaz and Mark Wegner. For no known reason, both guys have it out for the Reds, who are 6-23 all-time with Diaz behind the plate and 5-24 all-time with Wegner. Diaz has already dropped three more Ls on the Reds in 2011, while Wegner (thankfully) has had a limited schedule due to a leg injury in May and hasn't seen the Reds yet. Obviously the players are the biggest deciding factor in any game, but when numbers are as statistically significant as with these two umps, you have to wonder.
Sources for my research: baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, thespread.com
Sunday, August 21, 2011
The men behind the win, 8/21/11
That was huge (that's what Dusty said).
The Reds just broke an unfortunate streak of 6 consecutive road series losses (dating back to the 2-1 series victory over Tampa at the end of June). And they did so in stirring comeback fashion, after blowing a lead of their own.
This was the 9th game this month alone where the Reds tied the game and blew the lead the very next half-inning, or took a lead and blew it the very next half-inning. Obviously it didn't look good when Leake coughed up the 2-run shot to Garrett Jones, creating a 4-3 deficit in the bottom of the 6th before a brief rain delay.
Thankfully, the Reds' offense was actually up to this challenge against solid closer Joel Hanrahan, starting with a single by Frazier. Here are the players of the game:
1) Ramon Hernandez. After a Stubbs flyout and Hanigan walk to move Frazier to second, Ramon (pinch-hitting for light-hitting Paul Janish) struck the first blow of the 9th with a single to tie it at 4. Then in the bottom half, he came up just as clutch, gunning down Josh Harrison at second base for the first out. By the way: Clint Hurdle didn't like the call. That loomed even larger when Neil Walker followed with a double.
2) Jose Arredondo. 2 scoreless innings - a welcome oasis in an August desert of bullpen failures. In August he has now pitched 9.2 innings, given up only 2 runs and recorded 12 strikeouts.
3) Joey Votto. He provided the only offense prior to the 9th with a 3-run homer to right-center in the top of the 6th.
4) This one is tough, because all three of these guys had their ups and downs today, so they'll have to split the honor. Cordero got the save, BUT he almost blew it with the tying run reaching third. Phillips got the game-winning RBI, BUT it was on a fielder's choice AND he left 5 on base. Leake kept the Reds close, BUT it wasn't a quality start.
The Reds are back to 3 under .500 (62-65), 4.5 back of the Cardinals who are the only realistic target for passing this season. Now comes a day off and a trip to Miami for 3 games.
The Reds just broke an unfortunate streak of 6 consecutive road series losses (dating back to the 2-1 series victory over Tampa at the end of June). And they did so in stirring comeback fashion, after blowing a lead of their own.
This was the 9th game this month alone where the Reds tied the game and blew the lead the very next half-inning, or took a lead and blew it the very next half-inning. Obviously it didn't look good when Leake coughed up the 2-run shot to Garrett Jones, creating a 4-3 deficit in the bottom of the 6th before a brief rain delay.
Thankfully, the Reds' offense was actually up to this challenge against solid closer Joel Hanrahan, starting with a single by Frazier. Here are the players of the game:
1) Ramon Hernandez. After a Stubbs flyout and Hanigan walk to move Frazier to second, Ramon (pinch-hitting for light-hitting Paul Janish) struck the first blow of the 9th with a single to tie it at 4. Then in the bottom half, he came up just as clutch, gunning down Josh Harrison at second base for the first out. By the way: Clint Hurdle didn't like the call. That loomed even larger when Neil Walker followed with a double.
2) Jose Arredondo. 2 scoreless innings - a welcome oasis in an August desert of bullpen failures. In August he has now pitched 9.2 innings, given up only 2 runs and recorded 12 strikeouts.
3) Joey Votto. He provided the only offense prior to the 9th with a 3-run homer to right-center in the top of the 6th.
4) This one is tough, because all three of these guys had their ups and downs today, so they'll have to split the honor. Cordero got the save, BUT he almost blew it with the tying run reaching third. Phillips got the game-winning RBI, BUT it was on a fielder's choice AND he left 5 on base. Leake kept the Reds close, BUT it wasn't a quality start.
The Reds are back to 3 under .500 (62-65), 4.5 back of the Cardinals who are the only realistic target for passing this season. Now comes a day off and a trip to Miami for 3 games.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Bad offense, meet bad bullpen
If you watched today's game on FOX, you heard Mitch Williams blaming the Reds' woes on pitching, because that's the "intelligent" thing for an analyst to say. As I've bemoaned on this blog the past couple months, the offense has been the real problem, and it's been that way the entire season. Eliminating wins where both the offense and pitching/defense were good, and losses where both phases were bad, you get:
March/April:
3 "hitting wins" and 6 "hitting losses" Score: -3
3 "pitching wins" and 3 "pitching losses" Score: 0
May: Hitting -2, Pitching 0
June: Hitting -7, Pitching +3
July: Hitting -4, Pitching +1
August so far: Hitting -2, Pitching +2
Unfortunately, this month we've had a new problem arise: the bullpen. It performed admirably through July, and still has an ERA half a run lower than last season, but has completely fallen off the table in August with an ERA near 6.
Ondrusek, Bray, LeCure and Masset have all had an atrocious August, and even Chapman imploded in today's game. Only the much-maligned Francisco Cordero has been consistent, and Arredondo has done okay as well.
Want something positive? Although it's not, and shouldn't be, his natural spot in the order, BP has been ridiculous in his 3 games back in the leadoff spot. 9 for 13 and a walk, 1 home run and 4 RBI.
Dontrelle Willis, meanwhile, has thrown 6 quality starts among his 8 total this season, and is still winless. See what I mean about offense?
March/April:
3 "hitting wins" and 6 "hitting losses" Score: -3
3 "pitching wins" and 3 "pitching losses" Score: 0
May: Hitting -2, Pitching 0
June: Hitting -7, Pitching +3
July: Hitting -4, Pitching +1
August so far: Hitting -2, Pitching +2
Unfortunately, this month we've had a new problem arise: the bullpen. It performed admirably through July, and still has an ERA half a run lower than last season, but has completely fallen off the table in August with an ERA near 6.
Ondrusek, Bray, LeCure and Masset have all had an atrocious August, and even Chapman imploded in today's game. Only the much-maligned Francisco Cordero has been consistent, and Arredondo has done okay as well.
Want something positive? Although it's not, and shouldn't be, his natural spot in the order, BP has been ridiculous in his 3 games back in the leadoff spot. 9 for 13 and a walk, 1 home run and 4 RBI.
Dontrelle Willis, meanwhile, has thrown 6 quality starts among his 8 total this season, and is still winless. See what I mean about offense?
The men behind the win 8/19/11
Reds 11, Pirates 8.
This one was not pretty, but it had a few worthy heroes.
1) Ryan Hanigan. Continued his hot streak with the bat...now 8 for his last 12 with 8 RBI. Hit a solo shot to give the Reds a 3-2 lead, then tacked on insurance runs with a 2-run single in the top of the 9th that provided the final score. Also tagged two guys out at home in crucial situations, and helped Bailey work out of a couple tough jams.
2) Drew Stubbs. What? Yes he only went 1 for 5 at the plate, left a team-leading 5 on base, struck out twice and grounded into a double play. BUT he had a huge catch to end the 4th, preserving a 2-2 tie, and then topped that by initiating a double play to end the 8th, keeping the 8-8 tie intact.
3) Brandon Phillips. He might not be the prototypical lead-off guy, especially with no base-stealing ability (where did that go?) but he sure has done his job in the first two games back in that spot (first time in 2011). 6 for 9 with 5 RBI and a walk in the 2 games. A 3-run bomb in the 5th that sure seemed like the nail in the coffin at that juncture.
4) Francisco Cordero. Eight different pitchers took the mound for the Reds, and only two kept a clean slate (both in terms of runs charged and inherited runners scored). One was Chapman, who only had to work 1/3 of an inning. The other was Cordero, who ended the Pirates' streak of scoring in 5 straight innings by retiring Brandon Wood (previously 2 for 3 with 3 RBI), Ronny Cedeno (previously 2 for 4) and Xavier Paul (previously 1 for 1).
This one was not pretty, but it had a few worthy heroes.
1) Ryan Hanigan. Continued his hot streak with the bat...now 8 for his last 12 with 8 RBI. Hit a solo shot to give the Reds a 3-2 lead, then tacked on insurance runs with a 2-run single in the top of the 9th that provided the final score. Also tagged two guys out at home in crucial situations, and helped Bailey work out of a couple tough jams.
2) Drew Stubbs. What? Yes he only went 1 for 5 at the plate, left a team-leading 5 on base, struck out twice and grounded into a double play. BUT he had a huge catch to end the 4th, preserving a 2-2 tie, and then topped that by initiating a double play to end the 8th, keeping the 8-8 tie intact.
3) Brandon Phillips. He might not be the prototypical lead-off guy, especially with no base-stealing ability (where did that go?) but he sure has done his job in the first two games back in that spot (first time in 2011). 6 for 9 with 5 RBI and a walk in the 2 games. A 3-run bomb in the 5th that sure seemed like the nail in the coffin at that juncture.
4) Francisco Cordero. Eight different pitchers took the mound for the Reds, and only two kept a clean slate (both in terms of runs charged and inherited runners scored). One was Chapman, who only had to work 1/3 of an inning. The other was Cordero, who ended the Pirates' streak of scoring in 5 straight innings by retiring Brandon Wood (previously 2 for 3 with 3 RBI), Ronny Cedeno (previously 2 for 4) and Xavier Paul (previously 1 for 1).
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Reds-Nationals Game 124 Preview
Tonight, for all the marbles in a relatively meaningless series, it's Bronson Arroyo vs Jordan Zimmermann.
Nothing new to tell you on Arroyo...either he'll be homer-happy (16 HR allowed in 9 losses) or keep it mostly in the yard (7 in 7 wins). He's already allowed a personal record of 33 this season.
The guy most likely to beat up on him: Ryan Zimmerman (.350 in 21 AB vs Arroyo)
The guy most likely to leave the park against him: Rick Ankiel (3 HR in 21 AB vs Arroyo)
Hot Reds in their last 10 games: Votto (.313, 3 HR), Bruce (.378, 5 HR)
Cold Reds in their last 10 games: Phillips (.200), Hanigan (.192), Janish (.143)
Hot Nats in their last 10 games: Zimmerman (.324, 3 HR), Morse (.385, 3 HR)
Cold Nats in their last 10 games: Werth (.222), Espinosa (.225), Gomes (.185)
Nothing new to tell you on Arroyo...either he'll be homer-happy (16 HR allowed in 9 losses) or keep it mostly in the yard (7 in 7 wins). He's already allowed a personal record of 33 this season.
The guy most likely to beat up on him: Ryan Zimmerman (.350 in 21 AB vs Arroyo)
The guy most likely to leave the park against him: Rick Ankiel (3 HR in 21 AB vs Arroyo)
Hot Reds in their last 10 games: Votto (.313, 3 HR), Bruce (.378, 5 HR)
Cold Reds in their last 10 games: Phillips (.200), Hanigan (.192), Janish (.143)
Hot Nats in their last 10 games: Zimmerman (.324, 3 HR), Morse (.385, 3 HR)
Cold Nats in their last 10 games: Werth (.222), Espinosa (.225), Gomes (.185)
Sunday, August 14, 2011
A record night of home runs in Cincinnati
If you haven't had your fill of meaningless statistics yet, here come a few more.
The Reds scored all 13 runs via home run last night. The only game in history (at least verifiable on baseball-reference) to outdo that was 4/29/80 when the Brewers scored all 14 off home runs.
Of the 76 times in history that a team has homered 7+ times, the Reds are responsible for the most of any franchise (10), including 5 in the past 4 seasons. They did it three times in 2008, and of course had the July 4th massacre of the Cubs in Wrigley last year.
And the most trivial note of all...the 1 runner left on base by the Reds last night is the fewest ever by a team hitting 7 or more home runs in a game.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Reds with 4+ RBI
Jay Bruce's 4 RBI game was the 9th of his career and 12th by a Red this season.
The all-time Reds leaders in games with 4+ RBI:
Bench 51 (including 7 three times, 6 twice, and 5 eight times)
Foster 34
Perez 31
Robinson 28 (54 for his whole career)
Dunn, McCormick 25
Kluszewski 24
Parker, Davis 23 (Parker had 50 in his career)
Griffey 22 (he had 45 with Seattle for a ridiculous total of 67)
The current Red with the most is Votto (14)
The all-time Reds leaders in games with 4+ RBI:
Bench 51 (including 7 three times, 6 twice, and 5 eight times)
Foster 34
Perez 31
Robinson 28 (54 for his whole career)
Dunn, McCormick 25
Kluszewski 24
Parker, Davis 23 (Parker had 50 in his career)
Griffey 22 (he had 45 with Seattle for a ridiculous total of 67)
The current Red with the most is Votto (14)
Reds' offense: MLB best and worst stats and splits
Categories where the Reds are in the best ten in MLB offensively:
5th in Runs Scored
6th in Home Runs
9th in OPS
8th in OBP
6th in BB
4th lowest GIDP
Categories where the Reds are in the worst ten:
8th most strikeouts
21st in stolen bases
8th most times caught stealing
27th in triples
Splits in the best ten:
2nd in BA against left-handed starters
2nd in BA as lefties against lefties
3rd in BA as lefties against righties
4th in BA as righties against lefties
2nd in BA in day games
7th in BA at home
4th in BA against "power" pitchers
5th in BA in "medium leverage" situations
10th in BA in "low leverage" situations
6th in BA with 1 out
4th in runs scored in the 4th inning
6th in runs scored in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings
5th in runs scored in the 9th inning
2nd in BA as non-starters
6th in BA in the month of May
5th in BA with a runner on 2nd, and with runners on 1st and 2nd
7th in BA with runners on 1st and 3rd
Splits in the worst ten:
21st in BA in night games
25th against "finesse" pitchers
24th in BA on bunts
25th in BA on line drives (unlucky?)
24th in BA leading off the game
21st in OBP leading off innings
25th in BA against groundball pitchers
29th in BA in "high leverage" situations
25th in BA after 0-2 count
29th in BA with bases loaded
25th in BA with 2 outs and RISP
2nd in GIDP with bases loaded
23rd in BA with runners on 2nd and 3rd
3rd most strikeouts with bases loaded
6th highest LOB/game (and worst in MLB for this stat on the road)
26th in runs scored in the third inning
27th in runs scored in the eighth inning (last night was a nice exception)
27th in sacrifice flies on the road
28th in BA in the month of August
So in spite of the first set of stats, which sound promising, you can see why (lack of clutch hitting) the Reds are so poor in 1-run games, and why their losses are more often due to hitting than pitching. The Reds will score ten runs in one game, and then go completely to sleep for a few days in a row.
To update an earlier statistic, in their 61 losses:
- the Reds' pitching and defense have given up more than league average runs/game only 32 times
- the Reds have failed to score league average runs/game 49 times
Likewise, the pitching gets too little credit for the wins. In the 58 so far:
- the Reds have scored at least league average runs/game 41 times
- the Reds have held the opposition below league average 47 times
So in all the 119 games combined, the Reds' offense has done its job 53 times (45%), and the pitching/defense 76 times (64%).
5th in Runs Scored
6th in Home Runs
9th in OPS
8th in OBP
6th in BB
4th lowest GIDP
Categories where the Reds are in the worst ten:
8th most strikeouts
21st in stolen bases
8th most times caught stealing
27th in triples
Splits in the best ten:
2nd in BA against left-handed starters
2nd in BA as lefties against lefties
3rd in BA as lefties against righties
4th in BA as righties against lefties
2nd in BA in day games
7th in BA at home
4th in BA against "power" pitchers
5th in BA in "medium leverage" situations
10th in BA in "low leverage" situations
6th in BA with 1 out
4th in runs scored in the 4th inning
6th in runs scored in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings
5th in runs scored in the 9th inning
2nd in BA as non-starters
6th in BA in the month of May
5th in BA with a runner on 2nd, and with runners on 1st and 2nd
7th in BA with runners on 1st and 3rd
Splits in the worst ten:
21st in BA in night games
25th against "finesse" pitchers
24th in BA on bunts
25th in BA on line drives (unlucky?)
24th in BA leading off the game
21st in OBP leading off innings
25th in BA against groundball pitchers
29th in BA in "high leverage" situations
25th in BA after 0-2 count
29th in BA with bases loaded
25th in BA with 2 outs and RISP
2nd in GIDP with bases loaded
23rd in BA with runners on 2nd and 3rd
3rd most strikeouts with bases loaded
6th highest LOB/game (and worst in MLB for this stat on the road)
26th in runs scored in the third inning
27th in runs scored in the eighth inning (last night was a nice exception)
27th in sacrifice flies on the road
28th in BA in the month of August
So in spite of the first set of stats, which sound promising, you can see why (lack of clutch hitting) the Reds are so poor in 1-run games, and why their losses are more often due to hitting than pitching. The Reds will score ten runs in one game, and then go completely to sleep for a few days in a row.
To update an earlier statistic, in their 61 losses:
- the Reds' pitching and defense have given up more than league average runs/game only 32 times
- the Reds have failed to score league average runs/game 49 times
Likewise, the pitching gets too little credit for the wins. In the 58 so far:
- the Reds have scored at least league average runs/game 41 times
- the Reds have held the opposition below league average 47 times
So in all the 119 games combined, the Reds' offense has done its job 53 times (45%), and the pitching/defense 76 times (64%).
Friday, August 12, 2011
Positional and batting order OPS for 2011
1) Fielding positions where the Reds are above MLB average for OPS: C, 1B, 2B, CF, RF, PH
Note: The overall number for CF is skewed upward by the select few games where Heisey started and blasted some home runs. Stubbs is actually below league average for the position (.714, compared to .742)
2) Fielding positions where the Reds are below MLB average for OPS: SS, 3B, LF
Note: All of these should come as little surprise, but thanks to Cairo at third offsetting Rolen's number, the Reds were almost dead-even with league average at the position (.691). Gomes' OPS in left was significantly better than Lewis or Heisey.
3) Batting order positions where the Reds are above MLB average for OPS: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th
Note: Not only has Bruce been much better than average when batting 5th, but Gomes was above average too at .803.
4) Batting order positions where the Reds are below MLB average for OPS: 1st, 4th, 6th
Note: Stubbs' .715 is only a hair lower than league average when batting leadoff. Bruce, BP and Rolen have all failed to produce up to league average when batting cleanup, although Rolen was by far the worst with an OPS of .551. One more bizarre Gomes note...his .876 OPS in the 6th spot is better than anyone else on the team with significant time there.
All stats from baseball-reference
Note: The overall number for CF is skewed upward by the select few games where Heisey started and blasted some home runs. Stubbs is actually below league average for the position (.714, compared to .742)
2) Fielding positions where the Reds are below MLB average for OPS: SS, 3B, LF
Note: All of these should come as little surprise, but thanks to Cairo at third offsetting Rolen's number, the Reds were almost dead-even with league average at the position (.691). Gomes' OPS in left was significantly better than Lewis or Heisey.
3) Batting order positions where the Reds are above MLB average for OPS: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th
Note: Not only has Bruce been much better than average when batting 5th, but Gomes was above average too at .803.
4) Batting order positions where the Reds are below MLB average for OPS: 1st, 4th, 6th
Note: Stubbs' .715 is only a hair lower than league average when batting leadoff. Bruce, BP and Rolen have all failed to produce up to league average when batting cleanup, although Rolen was by far the worst with an OPS of .551. One more bizarre Gomes note...his .876 OPS in the 6th spot is better than anyone else on the team with significant time there.
MLB rankings of these stats
C - 9th
1B - 4th
2B - 10th
3B - 17th
SS - 24th
LF - 21st
CF - 11th
RF - 7th
P - 6th
DH - 9th
PH - 2nd
Leadoff - 15th
2 - 12th
3 - 2nd
Cleanup - 26th
5 - 8th
6 - 19th
7 - 10th
8 - 6th
The men behind the win, 8/12/11
What do you know? Another win streak. Great to see some late-inning resilience from the bunch. I had a feeling before Bruce's AB he might pull some magic like that.
1) Jay Bruce. Can't give this to anyone else but him after his beyond-clutch 3-run blast in the 8th to win it. 4 of the 5 RBIs in the game, and on fire of late.
2) Bronson Arroyo. Sure, it was the Padres, he didn't get the win, and he made TWO errors, but the guitarist only gave up two runs in 6 innings to keep the Reds hanging around.
3) Drew Stubbs. I think every Reds fan was on edge during his 7th inning AB with Cairo on third and 1 out, thinking "please just hit a fly ball." He did better than that, with a hard single up the middle.
4) Bill Bray. Only got one out, but it was a big one with runners on 2nd and 3rd in the top of the 8th, keeping the deficit at 1. He was mopping up for Sam LeCure, who's been a little too generous with the mustache rides lately (9 runs and 7 walks in his 7 August innings)
And get this - while they only got 5 hits and produced 8 overall baserunners, the Reds only stranded 3 all game. No LOBster Kings this evening, thanks to Bruuuuuce and Dreeeewww.
1) Jay Bruce. Can't give this to anyone else but him after his beyond-clutch 3-run blast in the 8th to win it. 4 of the 5 RBIs in the game, and on fire of late.
2) Bronson Arroyo. Sure, it was the Padres, he didn't get the win, and he made TWO errors, but the guitarist only gave up two runs in 6 innings to keep the Reds hanging around.
3) Drew Stubbs. I think every Reds fan was on edge during his 7th inning AB with Cairo on third and 1 out, thinking "please just hit a fly ball." He did better than that, with a hard single up the middle.
4) Bill Bray. Only got one out, but it was a big one with runners on 2nd and 3rd in the top of the 8th, keeping the deficit at 1. He was mopping up for Sam LeCure, who's been a little too generous with the mustache rides lately (9 runs and 7 walks in his 7 August innings)
And get this - while they only got 5 hits and produced 8 overall baserunners, the Reds only stranded 3 all game. No LOBster Kings this evening, thanks to Bruuuuuce and Dreeeewww.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
The men behind the win, 8/11/11
With hopes for the playoffs all but dashed already, the remaining goals for this season include salvaging respectability (for a team too talented to finish below .500 or so many games out of first) and developing a clearer picture for 2012. One guy we almost never have to worry about is Cueto, who helped the Reds split a 4-gamer with a team that's owned them for a while.
1) Johnny Cueto. No complete game, but a really strong bounce-back performance after getting manhandled in Chicago (because of chicken wings?). 7 IP, 9 strikeouts. No runs allowed, only 3 hits and 2 walks. Finally picked up his 8th win. He won't beat Halladay for the Cy but he deserves second place in the voting.
2) Jay Bruce. The only Red with 2 hits, got the game's first RBI, and his double was one of only 2 hits the team collected after the first inning even if it didn't result in anything. He also had to sprinkle in a couple Ks, but Chacin is tough.
3) Aroldis Chapman. Not one of his easier innings of late, but he still ran his scoreless inning streak to 13.2. He has 3 walks in his last 4 innings, and hopefully that's not a sign of more control trouble ahead.
4) Joey Votto. Nothing stellar, but he got things started with his (ultimately) very important 2-out double in the first, and finished the game by snagging a line drive.
1) Johnny Cueto. No complete game, but a really strong bounce-back performance after getting manhandled in Chicago (because of chicken wings?). 7 IP, 9 strikeouts. No runs allowed, only 3 hits and 2 walks. Finally picked up his 8th win. He won't beat Halladay for the Cy but he deserves second place in the voting.
2) Jay Bruce. The only Red with 2 hits, got the game's first RBI, and his double was one of only 2 hits the team collected after the first inning even if it didn't result in anything. He also had to sprinkle in a couple Ks, but Chacin is tough.
3) Aroldis Chapman. Not one of his easier innings of late, but he still ran his scoreless inning streak to 13.2. He has 3 walks in his last 4 innings, and hopefully that's not a sign of more control trouble ahead.
4) Joey Votto. Nothing stellar, but he got things started with his (ultimately) very important 2-out double in the first, and finished the game by snagging a line drive.
Monday, August 8, 2011
This loss brought to you by the number 10
- the wonderful (of late) Reds pitching gave up 10 runs
- all 10 Rockies runs were scored from non-scoring position (thanks to 4 different 2-run homers with a man on first)
- this is the 10th time this season the Reds have allowed 10 or more runs in a game
- the 28 runs allowed in 3 days are the first time since August 23rd-25th of '10 (versus the Giants)
and most importantly:
- the Reds are now a hopeless 10 games out
- all 10 Rockies runs were scored from non-scoring position (thanks to 4 different 2-run homers with a man on first)
- this is the 10th time this season the Reds have allowed 10 or more runs in a game
- the 28 runs allowed in 3 days are the first time since August 23rd-25th of '10 (versus the Giants)
and most importantly:
- the Reds are now a hopeless 10 games out
Thursday, August 4, 2011
1-run games
The MLB records for 1-run games:
Most wins: 1978 Giants (42)
Most losses: 1968 White Sox (44)
Most games played: 1971 Astros (75)
By now, if you're a Reds fan, you've probably heard that they've lost an alarming 25 one-run games already. While not on pace to challenge any records, if they did go on to lose 36 such contests they'd be the first MLB team to do so since the 2002 Cubs. The most recent to lose 40 were the 1992 Dodgers.
A side note: this year's Giants are on pace for 41 one-run wins. No team since the record in 1978 has won more than the 39 victories recorded by the 1985 Reds.
Most wins: 1978 Giants (42)
Most losses: 1968 White Sox (44)
Most games played: 1971 Astros (75)
By now, if you're a Reds fan, you've probably heard that they've lost an alarming 25 one-run games already. While not on pace to challenge any records, if they did go on to lose 36 such contests they'd be the first MLB team to do so since the 2002 Cubs. The most recent to lose 40 were the 1992 Dodgers.
A side note: this year's Giants are on pace for 41 one-run wins. No team since the record in 1978 has won more than the 39 victories recorded by the 1985 Reds.
MLB movers, 2010 to 2011
So far, the biggest gains in winning percentage:
1) Arizona (+ .149)
2) Pittsburgh (+ .139)
3) Milwaukee (+.079)
3) Cleveland (+.079)
5) Boston (+.069)
And the biggest drops:
1) Houston (-.136)
2) San Diego (-.127)
3) Minnesota (-.121)
4) Cincinnati (-.076)
5) Chicago White Sox (-.070)
Cincinnati has had the worst follow-up season of any 2010 NL playoff team. Philadelphia, Atlanta and San Francisco all look playoff-bound again.
1) Arizona (+ .149)
2) Pittsburgh (+ .139)
3) Milwaukee (+.079)
3) Cleveland (+.079)
5) Boston (+.069)
And the biggest drops:
1) Houston (-.136)
2) San Diego (-.127)
3) Minnesota (-.121)
4) Cincinnati (-.076)
5) Chicago White Sox (-.070)
Cincinnati has had the worst follow-up season of any 2010 NL playoff team. Philadelphia, Atlanta and San Francisco all look playoff-bound again.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
The men behind the win 8/2/11
The series opener against Houston was a terrible downer, but all is not lost. With a win tomorrow (in a fairly favorable pitching matchup and an offense that should ALWAYS be better than Houston's) the Reds can still finish the three game set a step or two closer to some of the other Central competitors. Right now: 1 back of Pittsburgh, 4 behind St. Louis, 6.5 leeward of Milwaukee.
1) Homer Bailey. A lot of people love to rip this guy for his inconsistency but I always feel a million times better with him on the mound than some of the alternatives (Arroyo, Wood, Volquez and even Willis...who is consistent but never dominates like Homer did again tonight). He's got 8 of 12 quality starts this year, and this is the 5th time he's gone at least 7 innings (big after an extra inning debacle). His line: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K.
2) Edgar Renteria. The much-maligned Rent-a-wreck offered up a hugely clutch grand slam in the 5th...oddly the only inning with any scoring.
3) Chris Heisey. Started off the 5th with a double, only the second hit of the game for the Reds. 2 for 4 overall with a stolen base and a run scored.
4) Aroldis Chapman. Now eight straight appearances with no runs OR hits allowed, and his ERA is down to 3.73. During that span he has 15 strikeouts and 1 walk in 9.2 IP. WOW.
1) Homer Bailey. A lot of people love to rip this guy for his inconsistency but I always feel a million times better with him on the mound than some of the alternatives (Arroyo, Wood, Volquez and even Willis...who is consistent but never dominates like Homer did again tonight). He's got 8 of 12 quality starts this year, and this is the 5th time he's gone at least 7 innings (big after an extra inning debacle). His line: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K.
2) Edgar Renteria. The much-maligned Rent-a-wreck offered up a hugely clutch grand slam in the 5th...oddly the only inning with any scoring.
3) Chris Heisey. Started off the 5th with a double, only the second hit of the game for the Reds. 2 for 4 overall with a stolen base and a run scored.
4) Aroldis Chapman. Now eight straight appearances with no runs OR hits allowed, and his ERA is down to 3.73. During that span he has 15 strikeouts and 1 walk in 9.2 IP. WOW.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Reds-Astros Game 109 Preview
A key series for the Reds. While St. Louis plays Milwaukee, the Reds could gain a game (or two with a sweep) while dueling the mighty, mighty Houston Astros.
In the first game, it's Bronson Arroyo vs. Bud Norris.
Arroyo
vs Houston: 11-6, 4.46 in 20 starts
@ Minute Maid: 7-4, 5.24 in 12 starts
Best against: Quintero (1-17 with 8 Ks), Barmes (2-9)
Worst against: Carlos Lee (16-47, 3 HR, 11 RBI)
Bud Norris
vs Cincinnati: 0-1, 7.36 in 2 starts
@ Minute Maid: 12-10, 3.86 in 32 starts
Best against: BP (0-5), Stubbs (0-5)
Worst against: Hanigan (2-4, 4 RBI), Votto (1 HR, but also 3 K in 5 ABs)
Arroyo only has 9 quality starts out of 21 so far, which isn't good, but a turnaround still wouldn't be unprecedented. He had 9 quality starts at the same point in 2008 and an even worse ERA (by .16) but proceeded to lower it by about 1 full run over the final two months. Still doesn't forgive the performance so far...as we try to contend with the best teams over the next couple years, the rotation spots should all get better statistics than the ones he's posted in 2011.
Norris' record isn't any better at 5-7 overall but he's been much more consistent out there at a 3.39 ERA and 12/21 quality starts. His last three outings:
July 16: No decision, 5.2 IP, 4 ER vs Pittsburgh
July 22: Loss, 6.1 IP, 4 R (1 ER) at Chicago
July 27: No decision: 6.0 IP, 2 R (1 ER) at St. Louis
The Astros are a shell, and Arroyo needs to keep their offense down.
One problem: his historic HR/9 rate. 2.12 HR/9 this season, if continued through the end of the year, would be the worst by anyone with at least 150 IP since Lima Time in 2000. Combine that with the Crawford Boxes and it's not a welcome proposition.
Arroyo's career HR/9 at Minute Maid is 1.80, much higher than his career average.
To update a stat I've mentioned before, in only 4 Reds series all year has the winner of Game 1 gone on to lose that series.
In a home series against Houston and one against Atlanta, the Reds lost game 1 and won the series.
In a road series against Atlanta and one against LA, the Reds won game 1 and lost the series.
Makes Arroyo's start that much more important.
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