1) Ryan Hanigan. 3-run jack was the biggest hit by him this season.
2) Edinson Volquez. He had an amazing start going, and in the end it was only a quality start. But for him, and for the Reds today, it was good enough.
3) Francisco Cordero. First save opportunity in a while, and he converted.
4) Fred Lewis. A big two-out RBI which proved the deciding run.
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
How far the pitching has come
The Reds may have finished only 14-12 this month, with a few losses that easily could've/should've gone our way.
But as we all noticed, the pitching was vastly improved. In 20 of the 26 games, the opposition scored 4 or fewer runs. That's the first month this season we've had 20 games that solid.
In 2010, the Reds had three such months of 20 games holding the opposition under 5 runs (May, July and September).
In 2009, the Reds accomplished it only in September.
And here's the crazy thing. Before that, you have to go all the way back to May 1997 to find the previous single month with pitching of that quality.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Stranded
Thought I'd take a look at the percentage of times individual players have been driven in once they get on base.
As a first example, Votto has reached base 156 times. Subtracting the 11 HR, that's 145 times actually ON base. He has scored 53 times, but you subtract the 11 HR again to get 42 times he was driven in by someone else or some other event.
So he has scored only 29% of the time when on base. Not good.
The rates for some others:
Stubbs: 43 of 103 (42%)
Phillips: 42 of 110 (38%)
Bruce: 29 of 94 (31%)
Gomes: 18 of 67 (27%)
Rolen: 24 of 59 (41%)
As you can see from this information and the previous post...Phillips and Votto do a fine job driving in Stubbs, Votto and Rolen drive in Phillips a lot, but we aren't doing enough hitting behind Votto.
RBI tandems
Through the Reds' 5-0 win over Tampa, taking them to 7-0 all-time against the Rays...
Himself 8 times
Janish, Hanigan 5
Votto 3
BP, Hernandez, Rolen 2
Cairo, Bruce 1
Our top run producers and the teammates they've driven in most frequently:
Votto (49 total)
Stubbs 14 times
BP 11
Himself 11
Heisey 4
Janish 3
Bruce, Renteria, Cairo, Bailey, Arroyo, Volquez 1
Bruce (49 total)
Himself 17 times
Votto 11
Stubbs 8
Rolen 5
BP 4
Cairo 2
Renteria, Heisey 1
Phillips (41 total)
Stubbs 10 times
Himself 6
Renteria 6
Janish, Votto 4
Cairo, Hernandez 2
Rolen, Wood, Lewis, Bruce, Leake, Cueto, Heisey 1
Rolen (32 total)
BP 14 times
Votto 8
Himself 4
Stubbs 3
Bruce, Cairo, Renteria 1
Stubbs (32 total)
Himself 11 times
Hanigan 5
Janish 3
Heisey, Renteria, Leake 2
Gomes, Hermida, Lewis, Cairo, Valaika, Bruce, Hernandez 1
Gomes (31 total)
Himself 11 times
BP 5
Rolen 4
Votto, Bruce 3
Stubbs 2
Hanigan, Heisey, Cairo 1
Himself 8 times
Janish, Hanigan 5
Votto 3
BP, Hernandez, Rolen 2
Cairo, Bruce 1
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Leadoff Hitters and First Inning Offense
I mentioned in the previous post that Stubbs' OBP was insufficient for a leadoff man. While certainly not ideal, he's a long way from being the worst choice out there.
In fact, among the past 20 World Series winners (beginning with the Reds, ending with the Giants) five had equal or worse leadoff batter OBPs. Not that it's Hall of Fame company - Dan Gladden, Andres Torres, Luis Castillo, Devon White and Marquis Grissom.
In looking at these statistics I happened upon one other comparison between the current Reds and past champions, which is less favorable. All of the recent champions have been strong offensively in the first inning, scoring an average of 12.68% of their runs in that frame.
The lowest percentage, and only one under 10%, belonged to the 1996 New York Yankees (9.64%). Checking in at a whopping 17.84% were the 1997 Marlins - curiously so, considering their poor leadoff performance that season.
Our beloved Redlegs have been slow starters in 2011. After posting a respectable first inning run total in 2010, only 8.99% of their runs (34 of 378) have come in the opening inning this year.
As an inevitable result, the opposition has scored first in 62% of the games (48 of 78) and the Reds are 22-26 in those contests, only achieving such a decent record because of their late inning heroics.
Want specific players to blame? Among the three players with the most first inning at-bats, only Brandon Phillips hits well (.308 BA). Stubbs is an abysmal .177 and Votto an uncharacteristic .262 (but his OBP is still .395).
Guys like Jay Bruce (.292) and Scott Rolen (.267) likely have their statistics skewed upward by the fact they would only bat in the first if the Reds are succeeding against the pitcher.
In conclusion, we're still searching for our man at leadoff. Heisey may have hit pretty well now for a few games, but he's still only 2 for 11 in the first inning.
I've long thought that we should give Fred Lewis a shot now and then, as he does boast a career leadoff average higher than his overall average, and if I recall correctly he is the ONLY player on the Reds' roster with such a statistic.
This may (hopefully) become moot, with the (hopefully) imminent arrival of Dave Sappelt. Zack Cozart is another player with potential to give the Reds' inconsistent offense a shot in the arm, but that's a discussion for another day.
In fact, among the past 20 World Series winners (beginning with the Reds, ending with the Giants) five had equal or worse leadoff batter OBPs. Not that it's Hall of Fame company - Dan Gladden, Andres Torres, Luis Castillo, Devon White and Marquis Grissom.
In looking at these statistics I happened upon one other comparison between the current Reds and past champions, which is less favorable. All of the recent champions have been strong offensively in the first inning, scoring an average of 12.68% of their runs in that frame.
The lowest percentage, and only one under 10%, belonged to the 1996 New York Yankees (9.64%). Checking in at a whopping 17.84% were the 1997 Marlins - curiously so, considering their poor leadoff performance that season.
Our beloved Redlegs have been slow starters in 2011. After posting a respectable first inning run total in 2010, only 8.99% of their runs (34 of 378) have come in the opening inning this year.
As an inevitable result, the opposition has scored first in 62% of the games (48 of 78) and the Reds are 22-26 in those contests, only achieving such a decent record because of their late inning heroics.
Want specific players to blame? Among the three players with the most first inning at-bats, only Brandon Phillips hits well (.308 BA). Stubbs is an abysmal .177 and Votto an uncharacteristic .262 (but his OBP is still .395).
Guys like Jay Bruce (.292) and Scott Rolen (.267) likely have their statistics skewed upward by the fact they would only bat in the first if the Reds are succeeding against the pitcher.
In conclusion, we're still searching for our man at leadoff. Heisey may have hit pretty well now for a few games, but he's still only 2 for 11 in the first inning.
I've long thought that we should give Fred Lewis a shot now and then, as he does boast a career leadoff average higher than his overall average, and if I recall correctly he is the ONLY player on the Reds' roster with such a statistic.
This may (hopefully) become moot, with the (hopefully) imminent arrival of Dave Sappelt. Zack Cozart is another player with potential to give the Reds' inconsistent offense a shot in the arm, but that's a discussion for another day.
Drew Stubbs
Count me among those who welcomed the move down in the order for Drew Stubbs. His .325 OBP isn't going to cut it for a leadoff guy.
That being said, I haven't by any means given up on Drew. He hasn't even played in two full seasons' worth of games at the major league level - 42 in 2009, 150 in 2010, 76 so far in 2011.
One distressing aspect is, of course, his strikeout rate - exactly one-third of all his at-bats this year - and the fact it has slowly worsened rather than improved.
A couple stats to ponder, from fangraphs, for the 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons:
Line drive % of balls in play - 21.1 - 15.5 - 19.6
Infield hit % of ground balls - 18.5 - 12.0 - 10.3
It would certainly be nice to see Stubbs trying to get on base via bunt more often (only 3 attempted this season), but this is held back by the fact that, well, he's terrible at bunting.
Back to the original issue of strikeouts, fangraphs provides a window into why he does so frequently. He recognizes strikes (and swings accordingly) right along with league average. And in fact does a better job than average laying off balls outside the zone (swinging 25% of the time, compared with 30% average).
The problem is he doesn't make contact when he swings. Only 56% of the time (68% average) for balls, and 82% (88% average) for strikes. You might be saying, "but I see him strike out looking all the time." That might be so, but more contact earlier in the count would go a long way toward preventing it.
That being said, I haven't by any means given up on Drew. He hasn't even played in two full seasons' worth of games at the major league level - 42 in 2009, 150 in 2010, 76 so far in 2011.
One distressing aspect is, of course, his strikeout rate - exactly one-third of all his at-bats this year - and the fact it has slowly worsened rather than improved.
A couple stats to ponder, from fangraphs, for the 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons:
Line drive % of balls in play - 21.1 - 15.5 - 19.6
Infield hit % of ground balls - 18.5 - 12.0 - 10.3
It would certainly be nice to see Stubbs trying to get on base via bunt more often (only 3 attempted this season), but this is held back by the fact that, well, he's terrible at bunting.
Back to the original issue of strikeouts, fangraphs provides a window into why he does so frequently. He recognizes strikes (and swings accordingly) right along with league average. And in fact does a better job than average laying off balls outside the zone (swinging 25% of the time, compared with 30% average).
The problem is he doesn't make contact when he swings. Only 56% of the time (68% average) for balls, and 82% (88% average) for strikes. You might be saying, "but I see him strike out looking all the time." That might be so, but more contact earlier in the count would go a long way toward preventing it.
Walks Will Haunt
Without a doubt, Cincinnati's starters have turned in some better performances over the past few weeks. However, one prominent problem remains, as seen in Volquez's start last night. The entire staff has seen a jump in walks, from 3.2 per 9 innings in 2010 to 3.6 per 9 this season.
The worst offenders in 2010:
Volquez 5.0 per 9
Cordero 4.5
Masset 3.9
And in 2011:
Volquez 6.1 per 9 (wow)
Masset 4.7
Bray 3.5
One very positive thing from last night was Sam LeCure's (what else is new?) excellent outing. He came in with 2 RISP and 1 out, and got a K swinging, IBB and K looking. Followed up with a 1-2-3 inning.
The best Reds relievers at stranding inherited runners in 2010:
Rhodes - 14% scored
Ondrusek - 27%
Herrera - 28%
Masset - 28%
Bray - 29%
And in 2011:
Bray - 13% scored (3 of 24)
Arredondo - 14% (1 of 7)
LeCure - 17% (1 of 6)
Horst - 25% (1 of 4)
League average for this stat is about 31%
The worst offenders in 2010:
Volquez 5.0 per 9
Cordero 4.5
Masset 3.9
And in 2011:
Volquez 6.1 per 9 (wow)
Masset 4.7
Bray 3.5
One very positive thing from last night was Sam LeCure's (what else is new?) excellent outing. He came in with 2 RISP and 1 out, and got a K swinging, IBB and K looking. Followed up with a 1-2-3 inning.
The best Reds relievers at stranding inherited runners in 2010:
Rhodes - 14% scored
Ondrusek - 27%
Herrera - 28%
Masset - 28%
Bray - 29%
And in 2011:
Bray - 13% scored (3 of 24)
Arredondo - 14% (1 of 7)
LeCure - 17% (1 of 6)
Horst - 25% (1 of 4)
League average for this stat is about 31%
Friday, June 24, 2011
Cincinnati's Interleague Woes
As the Reds enter a road series against the Orioles (only their second trip all-time to Baltimore, and first in the regular season), let's take a look at some ugly interleague stats.
The worst interleague teams (1997 through 6/23/11)
Pittsburgh - .376
San Diego - .416
Baltimore - .438
Cincinnati - .441
Kansas City - .445
One common thing you'll hear among Reds fans is that playing a tough team like Cleveland as our twice-annual matchup puts us at a disadvantage, but that's not really responsible for Cincinnati's poor record against the AL - now standing at 93-118.
Here are the most lop-sided interleague rivalries:
Yankees over Mets (47-34 = .580)
Cardinals over Royals (38-28 = .576)
Angels over Dodgers (46-34 = .575)
Blue Jays over Nats/Expos (33-25 = .569) - note: Washington's new main rival is Baltimore
Twins over Brewers (36-28 = .563)
Rangers over Astros (35-28 = .556)
The Redlegs' 35-37 record against the Indians isn't great, and certainly might mean a difference of a couple games a year between them and St. Louis, but it isn't the driving force behind the terrible overall mark.
The real problems:
3-14 vs Chicago White Sox
1-8 vs Seattle Mariners
1-5 vs Boston Red Sox
4-8 vs Toronto Blue Jays
4-8 vs Oakland A's
Other than the White Sox, the Reds are right around .500 against the rest of the AL Central opponents. Also 5-4 against the Yankees and Rangers, 2-1 against the Orioles.
As far as individual seasons, most years the Redlegs have at least posted a respectable mark, with a few exceptions:
2001: 4-11
2002: 2-10
2007: 7-11
2011: 2-7 so far, with series @BAL, @TBR, vs CLE remaining
By the way, after Baltimore comes a trip to Tampa Bay - the only current MLB team never to beat the Reds...albeit in only six tries.
The worst interleague teams (1997 through 6/23/11)
Pittsburgh - .376
San Diego - .416
Baltimore - .438
Cincinnati - .441
Kansas City - .445
One common thing you'll hear among Reds fans is that playing a tough team like Cleveland as our twice-annual matchup puts us at a disadvantage, but that's not really responsible for Cincinnati's poor record against the AL - now standing at 93-118.
Here are the most lop-sided interleague rivalries:
Yankees over Mets (47-34 = .580)
Cardinals over Royals (38-28 = .576)
Angels over Dodgers (46-34 = .575)
Blue Jays over Nats/Expos (33-25 = .569) - note: Washington's new main rival is Baltimore
Twins over Brewers (36-28 = .563)
Rangers over Astros (35-28 = .556)
The Redlegs' 35-37 record against the Indians isn't great, and certainly might mean a difference of a couple games a year between them and St. Louis, but it isn't the driving force behind the terrible overall mark.
The real problems:
3-14 vs Chicago White Sox
1-8 vs Seattle Mariners
1-5 vs Boston Red Sox
4-8 vs Toronto Blue Jays
4-8 vs Oakland A's
Other than the White Sox, the Reds are right around .500 against the rest of the AL Central opponents. Also 5-4 against the Yankees and Rangers, 2-1 against the Orioles.
As far as individual seasons, most years the Redlegs have at least posted a respectable mark, with a few exceptions:
2001: 4-11
2002: 2-10
2007: 7-11
2011: 2-7 so far, with series @BAL, @TBR, vs CLE remaining
By the way, after Baltimore comes a trip to Tampa Bay - the only current MLB team never to beat the Reds...albeit in only six tries.
Red Non-Rivalries by decade
The teams the Reds beat up on the most each decade, including only the teams they played each year of that decade (for instance, Padres/Expos excluded in the '60s):
1900s - Boston Beaneaters/Doves
1910s - Brooklyn Dodgers
1920s through 1940s - Philadelphia Phillies
1950s - Pittsburgh Pirates
1960s - Philadelphia Phillies
1970s - Atlanta Braves
1980s - Pittsburgh Pirates
1990s - Philadelphia Phillies
2000s - Florida Marlins
So the Reds' all-time "play-toy" is the Philadelphia Phillies.
Now for the teams the Reds have played the worst against...
1900s - Chicago Cubs
1910s - New York Giants
1920s - New York Giants
1930s - St. Louis Cardinals
1940s - St. Louis Cardinals
1950s - Atlanta Braves
1960s - San Francisco Giants
1970s - Chicago Cubs
1980s - St. Louis Cardinals
1990s - Atlanta Braves
2000s - Los Angeles Dodgers
So the Reds' all-time worst enemy? A tie between the Cardinals and Giants.
1900s - Boston Beaneaters/Doves
1910s - Brooklyn Dodgers
1920s through 1940s - Philadelphia Phillies
1950s - Pittsburgh Pirates
1960s - Philadelphia Phillies
1970s - Atlanta Braves
1980s - Pittsburgh Pirates
1990s - Philadelphia Phillies
2000s - Florida Marlins
So the Reds' all-time "play-toy" is the Philadelphia Phillies.
Now for the teams the Reds have played the worst against...
1900s - Chicago Cubs
1910s - New York Giants
1920s - New York Giants
1930s - St. Louis Cardinals
1940s - St. Louis Cardinals
1950s - Atlanta Braves
1960s - San Francisco Giants
1970s - Chicago Cubs
1980s - St. Louis Cardinals
1990s - Atlanta Braves
2000s - Los Angeles Dodgers
So the Reds' all-time worst enemy? A tie between the Cardinals and Giants.
Big Red Machine
One way in which the 1970s Cincinnati Reds stand out is the fact they dominated the entire NL head-to-head during that decade. Their worst performance against any team was .508 versus the Chicago Cubs.
Here is a list (it might be incomplete) of other MLB teams that dominated to the same extent over the course of an entire decade of regular season play, without a losing record against any league opponent.
1910s New York Giants
1910s Boston Red Sox
1920s New York Giants
1920s New York Yankees
1930s New York Yankees
1940s St. Louis Cardinals
1950s Brooklyn/LA Dodgers
1950s New York Yankees
1990s Atlanta Braves
Some teams that barely missed the cut - 1900s Cubs, 1930s Giants, 1960s Cardinals
Here is a list (it might be incomplete) of other MLB teams that dominated to the same extent over the course of an entire decade of regular season play, without a losing record against any league opponent.
1910s New York Giants
1910s Boston Red Sox
1920s New York Giants
1920s New York Yankees
1930s New York Yankees
1940s St. Louis Cardinals
1950s Brooklyn/LA Dodgers
1950s New York Yankees
1990s Atlanta Braves
Some teams that barely missed the cut - 1900s Cubs, 1930s Giants, 1960s Cardinals
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