Reds/Brewers pitching matchups

Just like last season, we head into the break with a tough 4-game road series. While I don't expect this to be as brutal as the Philadelphia series last season, Milwaukee is still an absurd 30-13 at home. Here's a look at what to expect:

Homer Bailey (3-3, 3.64) vs Chris Narveson (5-5, 4.86) in Game 1.

I'd rate this one the second easiest of the series to win, and obviously the most important since it starts things off. There have been only 3 series we played all year where the winner of game 1 didn't go on to win the series. Bailey's career stats against the Brewers aren't great (0-2, 5.36 in 7 starts) but he got only 4 NDs against them in 2010 with a 3.38 ERA, and in limited starts has been pretty solid overall this season. Narveson is trash, and hopefully he gets another pounding (0-3, 7.06 against the Reds).

Mike Leake (8-4, 4.03) vs Zach Greinke (7-3, 5.66)

In my opinion this is the second most difficult game. Leake has been pretty good (second only to Cueto in giving us consistent quality outings) but Greinke is tough, and tough on the Reds. Leake is 0-0, 3.46 versus the Brewers in 2 starts, both this season. Greinke is 2-0, 3.00 against the Reds - 1 complete game with the Royals, 1 game earlier this year where we had him on the ropes early and he settled down to cruise through 6 with only 2 runs given up.

Johnny Cueto (5-3, 1.77) vs Shaun Marcum (7-3, 3.32)

Cueto again gets some poor luck going against a guy who might shut us down, but I still feel safest with Johnny on the mound. Marcum is 0-1, 3.86 agains the Reds in two starts.

Edinson Volquez (5-4, 5.93) vs Randy Wolf (6-6, 3.72)

I really wish Willis were getting this start. I imagine this is Volquez's last chance not to get the hook in Willis' favor if he implodes again, but I am not looking forward to heading into the ASB off another Edinson disaster. Randy Wolf is a pitcher you always feel like should be easier to beat, but somehow year after year he puts up pretty respectable numbers. Worse news is that he has pretty much dominated Cincinnati, 10-4 all-time with a 3.44 ERA. The Reds did have some great success against him in the only meeting this season, racking up 6 runs in 4 innings of a 12-3 win.

My prediction: W-L-W-L, but all four games could go either way.

The men behind the win, 7/6/11

1) Aroldis Chapman - First career save, 1 IP, 2 K

2) Jay Bruce - 2B, HR, BB in 6 PAs. 2 R, 2 RBI

3) Jose Arredondo - 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 K

4) Chris Heisey- HR, 2 BB in 7 PAs. Set the tone for the game with his first-pitch blast.

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Fred Lewis, Sam LeCure, Nick Masset

Guys who let us down in spite of the win...

1) Bill Bray. In a rarity, he let both inherited runners score. He's only allowed that to happen 7 of 28 times this season (25%) and in fact is the only guy on the team below league average (30%) for that stat in both 2010 and 2011.

2) The SS position. No surprise here. Renteria and Janish a combined 1 for 7 with 2 strikeouts and 5 left on base.

3) Bronson Arroyo. What could have been one of his finer starts of the year turned into yet another non-quality start (he now has only 8 in 18 games this year).

2011 Reds SP Game Scores

Johnny Cueto may have been the (extremely) hard luck loser today, but he posted yet another excellent start. By game scores, let's take a look at Red starting pitching. The single best start by anyone on the staff, when measured this way, was Mike Leake's win at San Francisco.

The standard formula: start with 50 points. Add 1 for each out, 1 for each strikeout, 2 for each inning completed after the 4th. Subtract 1 for each walk, 2 for each hit, 2 for each UER, and 4 for each ER. 50+ is considered a quality start with this method. According to Wikipedia, the highest game score achieved in a 9-inning game was Kerry Wood's famous 20 K 1-hitter.

Highest percentage of starts with scores of 70+
Cueto (27%)
Bailey (14%)
Leake (7%)
Arroyo (6%)
Wood (6%)
Volquez (0%)

Highest percentage of 60+
Cueto (82%)
Bailey (43%)
Leake (36%)
Volquez (20%)
Wood (19%)
Arroyo (18%)

Highest percentage of 50+ (quality starts)
Cueto (82%)
Leake (71%)
Bailey (57%)
Wood (50%)
Arroyo (47%)
Volquez (40%)

Cueto has actually had 10 of 11 quality starts by the standard definition (6+, 3 or fewer runs), but one of them didn't make the cut by game score because of the lack of strikeouts. Whether his strikeouts are an issue this year or not depends on your point of view. Typically it's not a good sign (in the sense that sustaining a high level of success with a lot of contact is rare) but it's helping him with efficiency, so I'm not personally inclined to complain.

If Bailey can stay healthy, it looks like he and Leake will be the #2 and #3 guys, but there is a lot of trouble beyond that point.

Arroyo has hardly given us any commanding performances. The number of 60+ game scores for him through this point in the season, each of his years here:

2006 - 9
2007 - 5
2008 - 6
2009 - 5
2010 - 7
2011 - 3

Fred Lewis for leadoff

Among our current choices, I don't really feel there's a good argument for anyone else.

Consider this:

If you look at the career stats of EVERY single position player on the team, there are only TWO who have higher career OBP leading off innings than their overall career OBP. Most are significantly worse starting things off, including Votto.

The two exceptions are:

Scott Rolen (only .002 higher, and not exactly someone you want leading off)

and

Fred Lewis (.349 overall, .371 leading off innings)

The trend has continued this season, albeit in a small sample size so far. He's got a .391 OBP in 23 such plate appearances.

Heisey: .178 (45 PA)
Stubbs: .286 (147 PA)

While I never want to see him batting 1st (or really in the lineup at all) against lefties, he should be seeing the majority of the time at leadoff unless we make a roster change or Stubbs somehow makes a massive turnaround.

Leadoff batters typically get 1/3 (or more) of their plate appearances leading off innings, while batters in other positions in the order only about 20-25%.

Predicting Runs Scored

I took the combined data from fangraphs for the seasons 1998-2011 (the current complement of teams). And correlated a few standard metrics with runs scored to see which has been the most predictive during the era. The following are R-squared values (highest equals best)

1 = wOBA (weighted on-base average) = .9714
2 = OBP x SLG = .9548
3 = OPS (OBP plus SLG) = .9492
4 = SLG = .8774
5 = OBP = .8736
6 = AVG = .7163

By the way, for wOBA in that time period, the Reds rank 12th in MLB.

The top teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Rockies, Indians, Cardinals

More NL Central comparisons

As we have basically reached the halfway point, here are more stats to consider. Keep in mind that the Brewers and Cardinals are tied for 1st, and the Reds are tied with the Pirates for 3rd.

ERA ranks by month

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
May - 1 = PIT, 2 = MIL, 3 = STL, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL

So Cincinnati is on the upward trend in pitching, thanks mostly to getting healthy.

OBP by month

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = CIN, 4 = PIT
May - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = PIT, 4 = MIL
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = PIT, 4 = STL

While the offense has been very inconsistent, overall it did better than these other contenders in June.

Winning percentage

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = PIT
May - 1 = tie (MIL and STL), 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = PIT, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL

Positional OBP among Central contenders

Ranking production (in terms of OBP) by position, among the four NL Central contenders

P: 1 = MIL, 2 = CIN
C: 1 = CIN, 2 = STL
1B: 1 = CIN, 2 = MIL
2B: 1 = MIL, 2 = CIN
3B: 1 = STL, 2 = CIN
SS: 1 = STL, 2 = PIT
LF: 1 = STL, 2 = MIL
CF: 1 = PIT, 2 = STL
RF: 1 = STL, 2 = CIN

St. Louis and Cincinnati both rank in the top 2 at 6 positions.

Milwaukee at 4 positions.

Pittsburgh at 2 positions.