Pitchers due for correction

Many/most of you may be familiar with a couple of the recently-developed measures that are often used as alternatives to ERA. Among the best are xFIP and tERA. You can look up the full descriptions and formulas quite easily if you choose, but to briefly summarize...

xFIP is home-run rate-adjusted fielding independent pitching. It only considers home runs (adjusted to expected rate per fly ball), walks and strikeouts per inning pitched. After weights are assigned to each of these values and you add 3.10 it gives a number fairly comparable to ERA. It also correlates better with future ERA than anything else currently used (at least according to fangraphs - I haven't tested it but I trust them).

tERA is "true" earned runs allowed. It takes into account batted ball types, which can have a very significant effect as shown by the following numbers:

Batters hit about .725 and slug 1.000 on line drives.

Batters hit about .235 and slug .255 on ground balls.

Batters hit about .220 and slug .580 on fly balls.

Here is a list of pitchers who, thus far in 2011, have an ERA that is at least half a run lower than BOTH their xFIP and tERA. This means that due to a combination of defense and luck, their results have been appreciably better than they've truly pitched. Not to say they're going to fall off the table (after all, a lot of these guys are respected pitchers), but that the reasonable expectation is for most of these pitchers to finish the year with a higher ERA than they currently sport. This list only includes pitchers where at least one of the metrics was 4.00 or below.

Johnny Cueto - his current 2.01 ERA is very unlikely to be sustained, a reasonable expectation is for him to finish in the 2.50-3.00 range
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
Jered Weaver
Josh Beckett
Gio Gonzalez
Ryan Vogelsong
Jair Jurrjens
Dustin Moseley
Kyle Kendrick
Kyle Lohse
Jeff Karstens
Matt Harrison
Josh Collmeter
Alexi Ogando
Trevor Cahill
Mark Buehrle
Paul Maholm
Freddy Garcia
Tyler Chatwood
Bruce Chen

None of Philadelphia's top three (Halladay, Hamels, Lee) appear on this list. Their minuscule ERAs are backed up by other statistics.

All data from fangraphs and baseball-reference

The men behind the win 7/17/11

1) Homer Bailey. He had some really nice starts earlier this season before the injury, but this is the best and most important to date. Only 6 baserunners in 7.1 IP. Only one mistake pitch, to Berkman for the solo HR. Struggled a couple times with control and wasn't really hitting his spots but the bite on his slider was sufficient that he didn't need pinpoint accuracy.

2) Zack Cozart. Hit his first MLB home run to add a vital insurance run and continues to impress, with at least one hit in every game played so far. Why EVER play Renteria?

3) Miguel Cairo. Whenever you need him, he's there for a spark. A triple?!

4) Ryan Hanigan. It was ugly, but unlike Gomes/Bruce/Stubbs/Phillips/Rolen/Lewis/etc you can count on him to put the ball in play with a man on third.

Huge series win. The Reds will still be 3.0 back of St. Louis and Pittsburgh, and likely 3.5 back of Milwaukee. But we're very much in the race and now have an opportunity to take ground from Pittsburgh. Cueto pitches in the finale Wednesday. Willis/McDonald (toss-up) Monday and Leake/Morton (likely loss) Tuesday.

How clutch was that home run?

Since 1950 (as far back as baseball-reference's play index will go), the Reds have only had seven home runs that met all of the following conditions:

- walk-off winner
- 2 outs
- behind at the time
- tying run not even in scoring position, meaning extra bases (or relying on another hit from the next guy) were required to keep the game alive

They are:
Wally Post in 1954 (3-run homer, down 2 against Chicago)
Roy McMillan in 1957 (2-run homer, down 1 against St. Louis - identical in many respects to BP's)
Hal King in 1973 (3-run homer, down 2 against Los Angeles)
Tony Perez in 1974 (2-run homer, down 1 against San Francisco)
Adam Dunn in 2006 (grand slam, down 3 against Cleveland)
Ramon Hernandez in 2011 (3-run homer, down 2 against Milwaukee)
Brandon Phillips in 2011 (2-run homer, down 1 against St. Louis)

More trivia on the event:

- It was Brandon's second walk-off home run of his career and first with the Reds, and third walk-off hit of any kind as a Red.

- Votto and Bruce are the co-leaders on the current roster for walk-off hits as Reds, with 4 each. Two by Bruce and one by Votto were home runs.

- Tony Perez is the all-time Reds leader in walk-off hits with 19. Frank Robinson had 14.

- Perez also leads the Reds in walk-off homers with 10. Adam Dunn had 7.

Cincinnati Reds All-Star Game History

The Reds were abysmal last night in the All-Star Game, going 0 for 6 with 4 strikeouts, plus an error by Jay Bruce. Here are the highlights and lowlights in Reds' ASG history.


Best combined hitting:


1) 1976. 7 for 14, 3 runs, 4 RBI, 1 HR. Bench, Concepcion, Foster, Griffey, Perez, Morgan and Rose. Foster's 3-run HR was the highlight.


2) 1956. 6 for 15, 3 runs, 2 RBI. Bailey, Kluszewski, Bell, Robinson, McMillan, Temple. Big Klu was 2 for 2.


3) 1954. 3 for 5, 3 runs, 5 RBI, 2 HR from only two players - Bell and Kluszewski.


4) 1980. 3 for 6, 3 runs, 1 RBI, 1 HR. Bench, Concepcion, Knight, and Griffey - who had the HR.


5) 1975. 5 for 15, 2 RBI. Bench, Morgan, Rose, Concepcion, Perez.


Honorable mention to 1967...only 1 for 4, but the hit was a game-winning HR by Perez in the 15th inning.




Best pitching:


1) 1940. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Derringer (got the win) and Walters.


2) 1990. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Armstrong, Dibble and Myers.


3) 1942. 4 IP, 0 runs allowed. Vander Meer and Walters.


4) 1938. 3 IP, 0 runs allowed by Vander Meer, who also got the win.


5) 1982. 2.1 IP, 0 runs allowed. Soto and Hume, who recorded a save.








Worst all-around:


1) 1995. 0 for 6 with 2 strikeouts at the plate. 2 runs allowed in 2 innings pitched.


2) 1965. 0 for 3 at the plate. 5 ER in 1.2 IP by Jim Maloney.


3) 2011. 0 for 6 with 4 strikeouts.


4) 1977. 2 for 12 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR. Five all-world guys should've done better with all those at-bats. And Seaver gave up 3 runs in 2 IP.


5) 1981. 0 for 5. Solo HR allowed in 1 IP.


Honorable mention to 1970 at Riverfront...if it weren't for Rose scoring the winning run, the Reds going 1 for 9 in the game would've been an embarrassment.




Best individual hitters, min. 10 AB:


1) Johnny Bench. 10 for 28


2) Ted Kluszewski. 7 for 14


3) Frank Robinson. 5 for 12






Worst individual hitters, min. 10 AB:


1) Barry Larkin. 2 for 18


2) Pete Rose. 6 for 27.


3) Joe Morgan. 6 for 24.

Milwaukee Walkoffs

I know we're all getting tired of watching these bums dance around home plate on us...and I already felt like they did it a disproportionate amount of the time. Turns out that's true.

Since the Brewers moved to the NL we've lost 53 times on their home field (overall our record is okay there actually, 56-53)

12 of them have been walkoff losses, plus another 7 where they went ahead in the bottom of the 8th.

As far as the walkoffs, that's 23% of the time we lose to them.

In MLB as a whole, only about 8-9% of games end that way.

So yes, it is a curse.

Or in the case of today's game, the curse of Dusty Baker. I like the guy overall but sometimes he makes some puzzling decisions. Today was mindblowing...why we even used a physically-worn and confidence-worn Cordero again with SO MANY OPTIONS AVAILABLE is beyond me. But it is what it is. What literally could and should have been a 4 game sweep is a 3-1 series loss.

The men behind the win, 7/9/11

1) Jay Bruce - 2 singles, 2 walks, 1 HR in 6 PAs. Go-ahead solo HR in the 10th inning for his only RBI. 2 runs scored.

2) Ramon Hernandez - single, HR in 5 ABs. 3 RBIs. Gave the Reds their first lead.

3) Joey Votto - 3 singles, 1 BB in 6 PAs. 1 RBI

4) Bill Bray - he did have a nightmarish throwing error on a pickoff attempt in the 9th (the THIRD error by a Reds pitcher in a single game). BUT he came in with a guy on and nobody out in a tie game, got a K and flyout, walked Fielder intentionally and then sent it to extras by recording the last out. He's the one guy on the team who has consistently performed with inherited runners.

The underperformers (in spite of the win):

- Drew Stubbs (0 for 6 in the leadoff spot, with 3 strikeouts...a familiar refrain)
- Johnny Cueto...the absolute definition of a non-quality quality start. 4 walks. 2 errors. Gave up all the runs early. But if this is about as bad as it gets for 2011 Cueto (and basically, it is) we'll take it. Frankly I'm not surprised that he struggled a bit. He hasn't pitched well at Miller Park and the pre-game team meeting probably added some pressure to his outing.
- Scott Rolen...1 for 5 with 2 strikeouts...and an unfathomable NINE MEN LEFT ON BASE
- Fred Lewis twice failed to convert with 2 outs and the bases loaded.

The Reds went 3 for 7 with 2 outs and RISP. 0 for 3 (Lewis twice, Rolen) in regulation and then 3 for 4 in the big 10th inning - Cairo, Votto and BP all had RBI singles and Bruce lined out.

History of the NL Central at the All-Star Break

The Reds currently sit alone in 4th place in the division, 3 games back of the co-leaders Milwaukee and St. Louis, and 2 back of surprising Pittsburgh. While no team in NL Central history has come back from 4th place to win, there is definitely precedent for making up this number of games.

The key years to consider are 1996, 1997, 2003, 2006 and 2007 - the years in which a team won the division with fewer than 90 victories. It certainly looks like that's where we're headed again.

In three of those five years, the champion came from behind at the All-Star Break:
1997 Astros (2 under .500, 2nd place, 1 behind)
2003 Cubs (even .500, 3rd place, 3 behind)
2007 Cubs (1 over .500, 2nd place, 4.5 behind)

One other year, the eventual champion was tied at the break:
1996 Cardinals (5 over)

And only one was already ahead comfortably at that point - St. Louis in 2006, and even they struggled down the stretch in a close race.

There was even a 93 game winner (2001 Astros) that had to come from 3 back of the Cubs at the ASB. And that year's St. Louis team was 8 back at the break and still finished with 93 wins as well.

Logic should tell you already that all four of the current contenders have a legitimate chance regardless of how they've played up to this point, and history only serves to back that up.