Top 20 Shutdown Relief Pitching Seasons in MLB History

Only 30 individual relief pitching seasons in MLB history meet all of the following requirements:

- at least 60 innings pitched
- an ERA+ of 250 or higher
- a WHIP of 0.90 or lower
- WAR of 3 or more
- K/BB ratio of 3 or higher

All but four of those occurred since 1990, which isn't surprising because of the increased specialization of relief pitchers, with special emphasis on having a "shutdown closer."

Appearing multiple times on the list:
Bryan Harvey - 1991 with the Angels, 1993 with the Marlins
Craig Kimbrel - 2012 and 2013 with the Braves
Joe Nathan - 2006 with the Twins, 2013 with the Rangers
Mariano Rivera - 2005 and 2008 with the Yankees

I wanted to make a list of the best shutdown seasons ever, factoring in the categories listed above as well as K/9 and OPS+ against.  You might notice (and even, possibly, object) that I'm neglecting saves.  Sorry, but the stat is almost completely meaningless.

Here are my top 20 shutdown relief seasons in MLB history....

1) Craig Kimbrel, 2012 Atlanta Braves
IP: 62.2
ERA+: 399 (4th)
WHIP: 0.654 (3rd)
WAR: 3.3 (24th)
K/9: 16.66 (1st)
K/BB: 8.29 (6th)
OPS+ against: 1 (1st)
Total ranking points: 39
Traditional stats: 3-1, 42 saves, 1.01 ERA

2) Eric Gagne, 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers  
He won the NL Cy Young for this season, and rightfully so.
IP: 82.1
ERA+: 337 (10th on the list)
WHIP: 0.692 (5th)
WAR: 3.6 (14th)
K/9: 14.98 (3rd)
K/BB: 6.85 (7th)
OPS+ against: 4 (2nd)
Total ranking points: 41
Traditional stats: 2-3, 55 saves, 1.20 ERA

3) Koji Uehara, 2013 Boston Red Sox
IP: 74.1
ERA+: 379 (7th)
WHIP: 0.565 (1st)
WAR: 3.6 (18th)
K/9: 12.23 (10th)
K/BB: 11.22 (3rd)
OPS+ against: 8 (3rd)
Total ranking points: 42
Traditional stats: 4-1, 21 saves, 1.09 ERA

4) Mariano Rivera, 2008 New York Yankees.  
Incredibly, he never won a Cy Young.
IP: 70.2
ERA+: 316 (17th)
WHIP: 0.665 (4th)
WAR: 4.3 (3rd)
K/9: 9.81 (21st)
K/BB: 12.83 (2nd)
OPS+ against: 10 (5th)
Total ranking points: 52
Traditional stats: 6-5, 39 saves, 1.40 ERA

5) Jonathan Papelbon, 2006 Boston Red Sox.  
IP: 68.1
ERA+: 517 (3rd)
WHIP: 0.776 (9th)
WAR: 5.0 (2nd)
K/9: 9.88 (20th)
K/BB: 5.77 (12th)
OPS+ against: 18 (12th)
Total ranking points: 58
Traditional stats: 4-2, 35 saves, 0.92 ERA

6) Dennis Eckersley, 1990 Oakland Athletics. 
He won a Cy two years later, but this year was better.
IP: 73.1
ERA+: 603 (2nd)
WHIP: 0.614 (2nd)
WAR: 3.3 (27th)
K/9: 8.96 (26th)
K/BB: 18.25 (1st)
OPS+ against: 13 (6th)
Total ranking points: 64
Traditional stats: 4-2, 48 saves, 0.61 ERA 

7) J.J. Putz, 2007 Seattle Mariners
IP: 71.2
ERA+: 319 (15th)
WHIP: 0.698 (6th)
WAR: 4.0 (8th)
K/9: 10.30 (17th)
K/BB: 6.31 (8th)
OPS+ against: 21 (14th)
Total ranking points: 68
Traditional stats: 6-1, 40 saves, 1.38 ERA

8) Billy Wagner, 1999 Houston Astros
IP: 74.2
ERA+: 287 (23rd)
WHIP: 0.777 (10th)
WAR: 3.8 (11th)
K/9: 14.95 (4th)
K/BB: 5.39 (17th)
OPS+ against: 10 (4th)
Total ranking points: 69
Traditional stats: 4-1, 39 saves, 1.57 ERA

9) Wade Davis, 2014 Kansas City Royals
IP: 72.0
ERA+: 399 (4th)
WHIP: 0.847 (17th)
WAR: 3.7 (16th)
K/9: 13.63 (6th)
K/BB: 4.74 (21st)
OPS+ against: 16 (8th)
Total ranking points: 72
Traditional stats: 9-2, 3 savs, 1.00 ERA

10) Fernando Rodney, 2012 Tampa Bay Rays
IP: 74.2
ERA+: 641 (1st)
WHIP: 0.777 (10th)
WAR: 3.8 (11th)
K/9: 9.16 (24th)
K/BB: 5.07 (19th)
OPS+ against: 18 (10th)
Total ranking points: 75
Traditional stats: 2-2, 48 saves, 0.60 ERA

11) Takashi Saito, 2007 Los Angeles Dodgers
IP: 64.1
ERA+: 319 (16th)
WHIP: 0.715 (7th)
WAR: 3.5 (20th)
K/9: 10.91 (13th)
K/BB: 6.00 (9th)
OPS+ against: 19 (13th)
Total ranking points: 78
Traditional stats: 2-1, 39 saves, 1.40 ERA

12) Rafael Betancourt, 2007 Cleveland Indians
IP: 79.1
ERA+: 307 (21st)
WHIP: 0.756 (8th)
WAR: 4.3 (4th)
K/9: 9.08 (25th)
K/BB: 8.89 (5th)
OPS+ against: 26 (19th)
Total ranking points: 82
Traditional stats: 5-1, 3 saves, 1.47 ERA

13) Bruce Sutter, 1977 Chicago Cubs
Like Eckersley, he won a Cy two years after his true best season.
IP: 107.1
ERA+: 328 (13th)
WHIP: 0.857 (19th)
WAR: 6.5 (1st)
K/9: 10.82 (14th)
K/BB: 5.61 (16th)
OPS+ against: 31 (23rd)
Total ranking points: 86
Traditional stats: 7-3, 31 saves, 1.34 ERA

14) Dellin Betances, 2014 New York Yankees
IP: 90.0
ERA+: 277 (25th)
WHIP: 0.778 (12th)
WAR: 3.7 (15th)
K/9: 13.50 (7th)
K/BB: 5.63 (14th)
OPS+ against: 26 (18th)
Total ranking points: 91
Traditional stats: 5-0, 1 save, 1.40 ERA

15) Joe Nathan, 2006 Minnesota Twins
IP: 68.1
ERA+: 284 (24th)
WHIP: 0.790 (14th)
WAR: 3.3 (25th)
K/9: 12.51 (9th)
K/BB: 5.94 (10th)
OPS+ against: 18 (12th)
Total ranking points: 94
Traditional stats: 7-0, 36 saves, 1.58 ERA

16) Aroldis Chapman, 2012 Cincinnati Reds
IP: 71.2
ERA+: 274 (26th)
WHIP: 0.809 (15th)
WAR: 3.6 (19th)
K/9: 15.32 (2nd)
K/BB: 5.30 (18th)
OPS+ against: 25 (15th)
Total ranking points: 95
Traditional stats: 5-5, 38 stats, 1.51 ERA

17) B.J. Ryan, 2006 Toronto Blue Jays
IP: 72.1
ERA+: 335 (11th)
WHIP: 0.857 (20th)
WAR: 3.5 (21st)
K/9: 10.70 (15th)
K/BB: 4.30 (24th)
OPS+ against: 17 (9th)
Total ranking points: 100
Traditional stats: 2-2, 38 saves, 1.37 ERA

18) Hung-Chih Kuo, 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers
IP: 60
ERA+: 324 (14th)
WHIP: 0.783 (13th)
WAR: 3.1 (29th)
K/9: 10.95 (12th)
K/BB: 4.06 (27th)
OPS+ against: 15 (7th)
Total ranking points: 102
Traditional stats: 3-2, 12 saves, 1.20 ERA

19) Greg Holland, 2013 Kansas City Royals
IP: 67
ERA+: 342 (9th)
WHIP: 0.866 (23rd)
WAR: 3.1 (30th)
K/9: 13.84 (5th)
K/BB: 5.72 (13th)
OPS+ against: 31 (24th)
Total ranking points: 104
Traditional stats: 2-1, 47 saves, 1.21 ERA

20) John Smoltz, 2003 Atlanta Braves
IP: 64.1
ERA+: 385 (6th)
WHIP: 0.870 (25th)
WAR: 3.3 (26th)
K/9: 10.21 (18th)
K/BB: 9.13 (4th)
OPS+ against: 36 (27th)
Total ranking points: 106
Traditional stats: 0-2, 45 saves, 1.12 ERA


Not good enough for the top 20:
1993 Harvey (108 points)
1998 Trevor Hoffman (116 points)
2005 Rivera (117 points)
1991 Harvey (121 points)
1987 Tim Burke (123 points)
1981 Rollie Fingers (125 points)
2013 Kimbrel (130 points)
1998 Michael Jackson (140 points)
2008 Joakim Soria (145 points)
2013 Nathan (149 points)

Johnny Cueto Leading MLB in Wins

After Tuesday's impressive 5-2 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks, Johnny Cueto leads MLB in wins with 17.  

Cueto is on pace for 21 wins, which would make him the first Reds pitcher to win 20+ since Danny Jackson in 1988.

Here is the short list of Cincinnati Reds pitchers who have led the NL or MLB in wins for a full season:

Reds All-Time MLB Leaders in Wins:

1923 - Dolf Luque (27 wins)

1939 - Bucky Walters (27 wins)

1943 - Elmer Riddle (21 wins - tied)

1947 - Ewell Blackwell (22 wins)

1981 - Tom Seaver (14 wins - tied)



Reds All-Time NL Leaders in Wins:

1922 - Eppa Rixey (25 wins)

1926 - Pete Donohue (20 wins - tied)

1940 - Bucky Walters (22 wins)

1944 - Bucky Walters (23 wins)

1961 - Joey Jay (21 wins - tied)

1988 - Danny Jackson (23 wins - tied)

2006 - Aaron Harang (16 wins - tied)

Aroldis Chapman, Reds Bullpen Aiming for History

Aroldis Chapman is known for two things - record-breaking heat and record-breaking strikeouts.  The Reds' 2012 bullpen, with a lot of help from Chapman, is on track to post some eye-popping numbers.

1) Chapman currently sits at 16.74 strikeouts per 9 innings.  That would be the highest rate in MLB history for any pitcher appearing in at least 25 games.

Only one other pitcher - Kenley Jansen for the Dodgers in 2011 - has ever topped 16 per 9.  Incidentally, the Braves' Craig Kimbrel is on track for a ridiculous number this year as well.  He has struck out 15.7 per 9 so far.

The Reds' Rob Dibble (in 1992) is one of only 13 previous pitchers ever to strike out more than 14 per 9 innings for a season.

2) The bullpen as a whole has struck out 10.18 batters per 9 innings.  That would be the highest rate in MLB history by any bullpen.

Only the 2010 Braves bullpen (led by Billy Wagner) ever topped 10 strikeouts per 9 innings.  They had a mark of 10.06.  The next-highest totals were posted by the 2011 White Sox and 2001 Cubs - both 9.8 per 9.

Chapman isn't the only one racking up Ks.  The other two guys in the top 3 for innings pitched in the Reds 'pen also have great strikeout rates - Sean Marshall 10.7 and Jose Arredondo 9.8.

3) The bullpen as a whole has an ERA of 2.64.  That is the best in MLB this season (by a fair margin) and it would be the best mark by any team's bullpen since the 2003 Dodgers (led by Eric Gagne's Cy Young-winning effort) posted a 2.46 ERA.

The 1942 St. Louis Cardinals had the lowest bullpen ERA ever (1.75) but the aforementioned '03 Dodgers bullpen had the best mark in comparison to the average bullpen ERA for that specific year (a remarkable 1.7 runs lower than the 2003 average).

Reds' Offensive Leaders Without Votto

The Reds are 16-4 since MVP Joey Votto went down with a torn meniscus.  A lot of the thanks has to go to the pitching staff, which was dominant during the first 13 games in his absence.  Yet, perhaps surprisingly, they've only posted 9 quality starts in the 20 games overall.  So the bullpen, without question, deserves a lot of credit as well.  

But let's not forget that a number of position players have really stepped up to fill the offensive void.  Here are the leaders in the past 20 games (July 16th through August 5th):

Runs:
1) Stubbs - 22
2) Bruce, Cozart, Phillips - 11

Hits:
1) Stubbs - 24
2) Ludwick - 21
3) Phillips - 19

Doubles:
1) Ludwick - 6
2) Bruce, Phillips - 5
3) Hanigan - 4

Triples:
1) Rolen - 2
2) Cozart, Heisey - 1

Home Runs:
1) Ludwick - 6
2) Stubbs - 5
3) Bruce, Phillips, Frazier - 3

RBI:
1) Ludwick - 21
2) Stubbs - 15
3) Phillips - 13

BB:
1) Bruce - 13
2) Rolen - 10
3) Stubbs - 9

Stolen bases:
1) Stubbs - 7
2) Bruce - 2

Batting average:
1) Ludwick, Paul - .350
3) Phillips - .339
4) Stubbs - .338
5) Rolen - .333

OPS:
1) Ludwick - 1.159
2) Stubbs - .999
3) Rolen - .986
4) Phillips - .956
5) Bruce - .871

Conclusions:
- Ludwick is definitely the Votto-less MVP
- Stubbs is the most improved player during this span, becoming the guy we all want him to be
- Phillips was putting up awesome numbers so it's too bad that he went down as well, just a few days ago
- Paul was a great shot in the arm, especially in pinch-hitting roles
- Rolen had seemed a lost offensive cause in the first half, but he has been a huge boost too
- Frazier has actually been somewhat less productive during this span, yet his overall numbers are still superb for a rookie, putting him in solid ROY contention

Cincinnati (and NL) Sacrifice Bunting Statistics

Disclaimer: Like everybody, I'm thrilled with how the Reds are playing these days.  Who wouldn't be?  With that out of the way, though...

During tonight's Reds TV broadcast, Thom Brennaman was lamenting Cincinnati's lack of bunting execution, and rightfully so.  Miguel Cairo had just fouled out on an attempt, the sixth time a Reds player has struck out while trying to bunt this year. 

Below are some statistics on success rate of NL teams.  But first, some important notes:

- I define "success rate" as:
(Hits on Sacrifice Attempts + Successful Sacrifices + Reached on Error on Sacrifice Attempt) / (Sacrifice Attempts + Strikeouts on Foul Bunts + Strikeouts on Missed Bunts). 

- You may disagree with my inclusion of errors as successes, but to some extent, placement of the bunt can lead to errors.  And more importantly, in most cases, the error is made in an attempt to record the out at first...which means it would've been a sacrifice anyway.  Besides, the Reds have reached base on errors in sacrifice attempts more (7 times) than any other NL team...so changing the methodology would only strengthen the overall point that the Reds are terrible at bunting.

- This analysis does NOT include attempts to bunt for base hits, nor those ABs in which the original intent was to bunt, but the hitter changed his mind with two strikes.  Most Reds fans, including myself, probably feel that our statistics would be among the worst in the league in these areas as well, but I can't offer any numbers on these situations at the moment.  If I figure out an accurate way to do so, I'll post it.

The best:
1) Pittsburgh - 89% success rate
2) Philadelphia - 87
3) Arizona - 83
4) Colorado - 81
5) Houston - 80
6) New York, San Diego - 79
8) Milwaukee - 78 (including a league-leading 13 base hits on their attempts)

The worst:
9) San Francisco - 77% success rate
10) St. Louis, Atlanta - 75
12) Los Angeles - 73
13) Cincinnati, Washington - 71
15) Miami - 67
16) Chicago - 61 

To make matters worse, the Reds are also second in the league in attempts (83), trailing only the Brewers (97).  Therefore, they lead the whole league in most ABs thrown away on failed sacrifice attempts:

Most failed ABs

1) Cincinnati - 24

2) Los Angeles, Milwaukee - 21
4) Chicago, Miami - 20

Just for good measure, I'll include success rate where "reached on error" is counted as a failure (although, as I said earlier, I disagree with this).

Alternate success rate rankings (reached on error counts as failure):
1) Philadelphia - 85
2) Houston - 80
3) Pittsburgh, Arizona - 79
5) New York - 75
6) San Francisco, San Diego - 74
8) Milwaukee, Atlanta - 73
10) St. Louis, Colorado - 72
12) Los Angeles - 70
13) Miami - 67
14) Washington - 64

15) Cincinnati - 63

16) Chicago - 59

And using the same method (errors count as failures):

Most failed ABs

1) Cincinnati - 31

2) Milwaukee - 26
3) Los Angeles - 23
4) Chicago - 21
5) Miami - 20

So now you may be wondering (if you made it this far) what the individual Reds' stats are in 2012....

Reds player success rate (sacrifice hits + hits / sacrifice attempts) (minimum 4 attempts)
Leake, Hanigan - 100%
Cueto - 86%
Valdez - 71%
Heisey - 60%
Latos - 58%
Bailey, Cozart, Stubbs, Arroyo - 50%

Most successful sacrifice attempts (sacrifices and base hits):
1) Cueto - 12
2) Latos - 7
3) Valdez - 5
4) Leake, Hanigan, Stubbs - 4

Most failures (force outs, strikeouts, or reached on error):
1) Latos, Bailey - 5
2) Stubbs - 4
3) Arroyo, Cozart - 3 

Cincinnati Reds: July 2012 Summary

The Reds went a ridiculous 19-7 in July (including the first 10-game winning streak since 1999) to remain in first place in the NL Central with an overall record of 62-41.  When the month began, they led Pittsburgh by 1 game.  In spite of Cincinnati's torrid pace, Pittsburgh barely lost any ground - they only trail by 3 games.  The Reds' lead over St. Louis expanded from 3.5 to 7 games.


Cincinnati won 5 series (including 4 sweeps), lost 1 (at the Dodgers) and split 1 (at home against the Diamondbacks). 



**From July 6th through July 29th, their record was an astonishing 17-2.**


Home record: 9-3 (8-2 on the only completed home stand, 1-1 ongoing)
Road record: 10-4 (4-4 to finish their 5-6 West Coast trip, 6-0 on their second trip)
vs West: 10-7
vs Central: 9-0 (nice!)


Overall offensive trends: The offense stepped up admirably in Joey's absence (he missed 15 of the 26 games).  The batting average dipped only 3 points from June to .262, and the OBP only 9 points to .323.  Five players trended up significantly in OPS+, five trended down, and three stayed about the same.  Ryan Ludwick was phenomenal, Rolen showed a surprising return to old form, and Xavier Paul provided some unexpected help as well.


Overall pitching trends: The staff was outstanding, and the main reason that the team was able to weather the Votto-less storm.  The overall ERA was 3.03 (the best of the year).  After an already-solid June, the rotation boasted even better stats, going 14-5 with a 3.29 ERA. In June, Aroldis was the only problem in the bullpen.  The exact opposite was true in July, when he was virtually the only dominant force.  Relievers not named Chapman posted a 1.68 WHIP.  But thanks to his exceptional work, the relief corps still went 5-2 overall with a 2.43 ERA. 


Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Rolen +91, Heisey +87, Ludwick +48, Mesoraco +46, Frazier +24


DOWN significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Votto -102, Valdez -43, Cozart -37, Stubbs -30, Bruce -24


No significant change: Phillips, Hanigan, Cairo


Individual pitching trends:


UP significantly from June: Chapman, Arroyo, Bailey (all of whom had down months in June)

DOWN significantly from June: Leake, Simon, Arredondo

No significant change: everyone else




And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of July...

RANDY HITTER: Ryan Ludwick.  "Brother" led Reds regulars in batting average (.333), OPS (1.089), home runs (7) and RBI (19).

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Scott Rolen.  After looking like he was sinking toward retirement, he batted .321 in July with a .413 OBP (best among regulars).

RANDY STARTER: Homer Bailey.  4-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP that would've been even better without his implosion on the final day of the month.

Honorable mention: Bronson Arroyo (3-1), Johnny Cueto (4-1)

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Also Bailey.  He was coming off a losing record and 6 ERA in June.

RANDY RELIEVER: Aroldis Chapman.  An insanely easy choice...14.1 sparkling innings of shutout ball.  Only 6 hits allowed, 2 walks, and 31 strikeouts.  A perfect 13 for 13 on saves.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Also Chapman.  June was his disaster month, with an 0-4 record and an ERA approaching 7.

RANDY NOOB: Xavier Paul.  7 for his first 13 as a Red, including 2 doubles and 2 key RBIs...we'll take it!

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Drew Stubbs.  A guy who really needed a confidence builder provided a huge boost on July 24th at Houston, going 3 for 4 including a homer that brought the Reds from down 2-1 to up 3-2 in the top of the 9th.  That was one of the biggest hits of the entire season so far.  Altogether, he was on base 4 of 5 times, with a strikeout and CS the only two blemishes on an awesome day.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Bronson Arroyo.  He started the Reds' first win streak of the month when, on July 6th at San Diego, he pitched a complete-game, three-hit shutout.  Bronson struck out 8, walked 1, and needed only 110 pitches to post the best game score by any Reds pitcher this year - 88.