Pitchers due for correction

Many/most of you may be familiar with a couple of the recently-developed measures that are often used as alternatives to ERA. Among the best are xFIP and tERA. You can look up the full descriptions and formulas quite easily if you choose, but to briefly summarize...

xFIP is home-run rate-adjusted fielding independent pitching. It only considers home runs (adjusted to expected rate per fly ball), walks and strikeouts per inning pitched. After weights are assigned to each of these values and you add 3.10 it gives a number fairly comparable to ERA. It also correlates better with future ERA than anything else currently used (at least according to fangraphs - I haven't tested it but I trust them).

tERA is "true" earned runs allowed. It takes into account batted ball types, which can have a very significant effect as shown by the following numbers:

Batters hit about .725 and slug 1.000 on line drives.

Batters hit about .235 and slug .255 on ground balls.

Batters hit about .220 and slug .580 on fly balls.

Here is a list of pitchers who, thus far in 2011, have an ERA that is at least half a run lower than BOTH their xFIP and tERA. This means that due to a combination of defense and luck, their results have been appreciably better than they've truly pitched. Not to say they're going to fall off the table (after all, a lot of these guys are respected pitchers), but that the reasonable expectation is for most of these pitchers to finish the year with a higher ERA than they currently sport. This list only includes pitchers where at least one of the metrics was 4.00 or below.

Johnny Cueto - his current 2.01 ERA is very unlikely to be sustained, a reasonable expectation is for him to finish in the 2.50-3.00 range
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
Jered Weaver
Josh Beckett
Gio Gonzalez
Ryan Vogelsong
Jair Jurrjens
Dustin Moseley
Kyle Kendrick
Kyle Lohse
Jeff Karstens
Matt Harrison
Josh Collmeter
Alexi Ogando
Trevor Cahill
Mark Buehrle
Paul Maholm
Freddy Garcia
Tyler Chatwood
Bruce Chen

None of Philadelphia's top three (Halladay, Hamels, Lee) appear on this list. Their minuscule ERAs are backed up by other statistics.

All data from fangraphs and baseball-reference