Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.

Friday, July 1, 2011

Predicting Runs Scored

I took the combined data from fangraphs for the seasons 1998-2011 (the current complement of teams). And correlated a few standard metrics with runs scored to see which has been the most predictive during the era. The following are R-squared values (highest equals best)

1 = wOBA (weighted on-base average) = .9714
2 = OBP x SLG = .9548
3 = OPS (OBP plus SLG) = .9492
4 = SLG = .8774
5 = OBP = .8736
6 = AVG = .7163

By the way, for wOBA in that time period, the Reds rank 12th in MLB.

The top teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Rockies, Indians, Cardinals

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