Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.

Monday, July 4, 2011

2011 Reds SP Game Scores

Johnny Cueto may have been the (extremely) hard luck loser today, but he posted yet another excellent start. By game scores, let's take a look at Red starting pitching. The single best start by anyone on the staff, when measured this way, was Mike Leake's win at San Francisco.

The standard formula: start with 50 points. Add 1 for each out, 1 for each strikeout, 2 for each inning completed after the 4th. Subtract 1 for each walk, 2 for each hit, 2 for each UER, and 4 for each ER. 50+ is considered a quality start with this method. According to Wikipedia, the highest game score achieved in a 9-inning game was Kerry Wood's famous 20 K 1-hitter.

Highest percentage of starts with scores of 70+
Cueto (27%)
Bailey (14%)
Leake (7%)
Arroyo (6%)
Wood (6%)
Volquez (0%)

Highest percentage of 60+
Cueto (82%)
Bailey (43%)
Leake (36%)
Volquez (20%)
Wood (19%)
Arroyo (18%)

Highest percentage of 50+ (quality starts)
Cueto (82%)
Leake (71%)
Bailey (57%)
Wood (50%)
Arroyo (47%)
Volquez (40%)

Cueto has actually had 10 of 11 quality starts by the standard definition (6+, 3 or fewer runs), but one of them didn't make the cut by game score because of the lack of strikeouts. Whether his strikeouts are an issue this year or not depends on your point of view. Typically it's not a good sign (in the sense that sustaining a high level of success with a lot of contact is rare) but it's helping him with efficiency, so I'm not personally inclined to complain.

If Bailey can stay healthy, it looks like he and Leake will be the #2 and #3 guys, but there is a lot of trouble beyond that point.

Arroyo has hardly given us any commanding performances. The number of 60+ game scores for him through this point in the season, each of his years here:

2006 - 9
2007 - 5
2008 - 6
2009 - 5
2010 - 7
2011 - 3

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