The Reds currently sit alone in 4th place in the division, 3 games back of the co-leaders Milwaukee and St. Louis, and 2 back of surprising Pittsburgh. While no team in NL Central history has come back from 4th place to win, there is definitely precedent for making up this number of games.
The key years to consider are 1996, 1997, 2003, 2006 and 2007 - the years in which a team won the division with fewer than 90 victories. It certainly looks like that's where we're headed again.
In three of those five years, the champion came from behind at the All-Star Break:
1997 Astros (2 under .500, 2nd place, 1 behind)
2003 Cubs (even .500, 3rd place, 3 behind)
2007 Cubs (1 over .500, 2nd place, 4.5 behind)
One other year, the eventual champion was tied at the break:
1996 Cardinals (5 over)
And only one was already ahead comfortably at that point - St. Louis in 2006, and even they struggled down the stretch in a close race.
There was even a 93 game winner (2001 Astros) that had to come from 3 back of the Cubs at the ASB. And that year's St. Louis team was 8 back at the break and still finished with 93 wins as well.
Logic should tell you already that all four of the current contenders have a legitimate chance regardless of how they've played up to this point, and history only serves to back that up.
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