Ranking the Reds' Starting Pitching

By median game score:
1) Cueto 62
2) Bailey 57
3) Leake 54.5
4) Willis 52
5) Wood 49.5
6) Arroyo 46
7) Volquez 44

By percentage of starts with game scores of 40+ (keeping the team in the game)
1) Cueto 91
2) Leake 88
3) Willis 83
4) Volquez 77
5) Arroyo 76
6) Wood 75
7) Bailey 68

By ERA:
1) Cueto 2.36
2) Leake 4.00
3) Bailey 4.34
4) Wood 4.92
5) Willis 5.04
6) Arroyo 5.28
7) Volquez 5.80

By xFIP:
1) Leake 3.65
2) Cueto 3.86
3) Bailey 3.89
4) Willis 4.07
5) Volquez 4.22
6) Arroyo 4.52
7) Wood 4.60

By SIERA:
1) Leake 3.57
2) Willis 4.12
3) Cueto 4.13
4) Volquez 4.26
5) Bailey 4.37
6) Wood 4.39
7) Arroyo 4.41

By WAR (extrapolated to 35 starts)
1) Cueto 4.4
2) Bailey 2.4
3) Wood 2.2
4) Leake 2.0
5) Willis 1.8
6) Volquez -0.6
7) Arroyo -1.1

Composite rankings
1) Cueto 1.5
2) Leake 2.2
3) Bailey 3.7
4) Willis 3.8
5) Wood 5.2
6) Volquez 5.5
7) Arroyo 6.2

It's funny how closely these final numbers resemble each pitcher's ideal role. Cueto has pitched like an ace, but is likely something between a 1 and a 2 on a true contender. Leake looks like a 2nd or 3rd starter. Bailey and Willis are good enough to be 4th (or 5th) starters - but Bailey really needs to reduce the percentage of very poor outings. And the other three (if they continue to pitch as they have in 2011) don't belong in the rotation.

Pitchers due to improve

Using half a run as the cutoff skews things, such that the large list of "lucky" pitchers above is opposed by only two "unlucky" pitchers with respect to both xFIP and tERA:

Brandon Morrow
Zack Greinke

(both should be expected to get better results as the season progresses)

If you look at xFIP alone, you get a bigger list. Again, all these guys theoretically should do BETTER the rest of the season:

Mike Leake
David Price
Madison Bumgarner
Matt Garza
Ryan Dempster
Edwin Jackson
Derek Lowe
Yovani Gallardo
Felipe Paulino
Chris Narveson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Chris Volstad
Carlos Carrasco
Gavin Floyd
Max Scherzer
Ted Lilly
Brett Myers
Jake Westbrook
Fausto Carmona
Brandon Morrow
Zack Greinke

Three Reds (Volquez, Wood, and Arroyo) also have had unlucky ERAs but weren't on the main list because of their xFIPs weren't below 4.00

Pitchers due for correction

Many/most of you may be familiar with a couple of the recently-developed measures that are often used as alternatives to ERA. Among the best are xFIP and tERA. You can look up the full descriptions and formulas quite easily if you choose, but to briefly summarize...

xFIP is home-run rate-adjusted fielding independent pitching. It only considers home runs (adjusted to expected rate per fly ball), walks and strikeouts per inning pitched. After weights are assigned to each of these values and you add 3.10 it gives a number fairly comparable to ERA. It also correlates better with future ERA than anything else currently used (at least according to fangraphs - I haven't tested it but I trust them).

tERA is "true" earned runs allowed. It takes into account batted ball types, which can have a very significant effect as shown by the following numbers:

Batters hit about .725 and slug 1.000 on line drives.

Batters hit about .235 and slug .255 on ground balls.

Batters hit about .220 and slug .580 on fly balls.

Here is a list of pitchers who, thus far in 2011, have an ERA that is at least half a run lower than BOTH their xFIP and tERA. This means that due to a combination of defense and luck, their results have been appreciably better than they've truly pitched. Not to say they're going to fall off the table (after all, a lot of these guys are respected pitchers), but that the reasonable expectation is for most of these pitchers to finish the year with a higher ERA than they currently sport. This list only includes pitchers where at least one of the metrics was 4.00 or below.

Johnny Cueto - his current 2.01 ERA is very unlikely to be sustained, a reasonable expectation is for him to finish in the 2.50-3.00 range
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
Jered Weaver
Josh Beckett
Gio Gonzalez
Ryan Vogelsong
Jair Jurrjens
Dustin Moseley
Kyle Kendrick
Kyle Lohse
Jeff Karstens
Matt Harrison
Josh Collmeter
Alexi Ogando
Trevor Cahill
Mark Buehrle
Paul Maholm
Freddy Garcia
Tyler Chatwood
Bruce Chen

None of Philadelphia's top three (Halladay, Hamels, Lee) appear on this list. Their minuscule ERAs are backed up by other statistics.

All data from fangraphs and baseball-reference

More NL Central comparisons

As we have basically reached the halfway point, here are more stats to consider. Keep in mind that the Brewers and Cardinals are tied for 1st, and the Reds are tied with the Pirates for 3rd.

ERA ranks by month

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
May - 1 = PIT, 2 = MIL, 3 = STL, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL

So Cincinnati is on the upward trend in pitching, thanks mostly to getting healthy.

OBP by month

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = CIN, 4 = PIT
May - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = PIT, 4 = MIL
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = PIT, 4 = STL

While the offense has been very inconsistent, overall it did better than these other contenders in June.

Winning percentage

March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = PIT
May - 1 = tie (MIL and STL), 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = PIT, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL