Reds/Brewers pitching matchups

Just like last season, we head into the break with a tough 4-game road series. While I don't expect this to be as brutal as the Philadelphia series last season, Milwaukee is still an absurd 30-13 at home. Here's a look at what to expect:

Homer Bailey (3-3, 3.64) vs Chris Narveson (5-5, 4.86) in Game 1.

I'd rate this one the second easiest of the series to win, and obviously the most important since it starts things off. There have been only 3 series we played all year where the winner of game 1 didn't go on to win the series. Bailey's career stats against the Brewers aren't great (0-2, 5.36 in 7 starts) but he got only 4 NDs against them in 2010 with a 3.38 ERA, and in limited starts has been pretty solid overall this season. Narveson is trash, and hopefully he gets another pounding (0-3, 7.06 against the Reds).

Mike Leake (8-4, 4.03) vs Zach Greinke (7-3, 5.66)

In my opinion this is the second most difficult game. Leake has been pretty good (second only to Cueto in giving us consistent quality outings) but Greinke is tough, and tough on the Reds. Leake is 0-0, 3.46 versus the Brewers in 2 starts, both this season. Greinke is 2-0, 3.00 against the Reds - 1 complete game with the Royals, 1 game earlier this year where we had him on the ropes early and he settled down to cruise through 6 with only 2 runs given up.

Johnny Cueto (5-3, 1.77) vs Shaun Marcum (7-3, 3.32)

Cueto again gets some poor luck going against a guy who might shut us down, but I still feel safest with Johnny on the mound. Marcum is 0-1, 3.86 agains the Reds in two starts.

Edinson Volquez (5-4, 5.93) vs Randy Wolf (6-6, 3.72)

I really wish Willis were getting this start. I imagine this is Volquez's last chance not to get the hook in Willis' favor if he implodes again, but I am not looking forward to heading into the ASB off another Edinson disaster. Randy Wolf is a pitcher you always feel like should be easier to beat, but somehow year after year he puts up pretty respectable numbers. Worse news is that he has pretty much dominated Cincinnati, 10-4 all-time with a 3.44 ERA. The Reds did have some great success against him in the only meeting this season, racking up 6 runs in 4 innings of a 12-3 win.

My prediction: W-L-W-L, but all four games could go either way.