Interleague play hasn't been very kind to the Cincinnati Reds.
Of course, the new scheduling variation began in 1997, when the Reds were on their second of fourteen straight seasons without reaching the playoffs. In other words, their results weren't exactly sparkling in any subset of games.
However, their winning percentage in matchups with AL teams was even worse. Through last season, the Reds' record in interleague games was 104-131. At .443, that winning percentage was lower than every MLB team except the Padres (.437) and Pirates (.397).
By year, the Reds have fared as follows:
1997: 9-6
1998: 7-6
1999: 7-8
2000: 7-8
2001: 4-11
2002: 2-10
2003: 7-5
2004: 5-7
2005: 7-8
2006: 6-9
2007: 7-11
2008: 9-6
2009: 6-9
2010: 8-7
2011: 6-12
2012: 7-8
The Reds have never done better than 9-6. In fact, only the Reds, Cubs and Brewers have failed to record a single 10-win interleague slate. The biggest reason is that they've only had more than 15 games vs. the AL twice (2007 and 2011) and neither of those were successful years.
Many might jump to the conclusion that the Indians have been the main problem, because the Reds have been stuck with them as their most regular opponent. While this has certainly been a tougher matchup than what the Cardinals get (the lowly Royals), it has actually been mostly even. Entering this year, the Reds were 39-42 against Cleveland.
The main problems? The Mariners (8-1 against the Reds), Red Sox (5-1 against the Reds) and White Sox (14-3 against the Reds).
By division, before this year:
AL East = 1 over .500 (thanks mostly to being 8-1 against the Rays)
AL Central = 16 under .500 (includes going 3-0 against the Brewers in their only interleague meeting)
AL West = 12 under .500
Could this be the year that everything changes? Already, the Reds are 4-1. The remaining schedule won't be easy, but the Reds have a strong club this year and should (barring a complete meltdown) finally get to 10 wins. After all, they will play a total of 20 interleague games this year, thanks to the new alignment and scheduling format.
The games left:
2 at Cleveland (today and tomorrow)
2 at Oakland (June 25-26)
3 at Texas (June 28-30)
3 vs Seattle (July 5-7)
2 vs Oakland (August 6-7)
3 at Houston (September 16-18)
My prediction is that the Reds will win 9 of the 15 remaining games to go 13-7 for the year. The way things are going in the impressive NL Central standings so far, they certainly can't afford to give away games against any of their opponents.
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
Sunday, May 26, 2013
The story behind BP's production is more than just opportunity
Many would assert, with some degree of truth, that Brandon Phillips leads the National League in RBI (with 42 entering play on Sunday 5/26) because of increased opportunities. Votto and Choo have done such an incredible job getting on base (ranking 1st and 3rd in all of MLB for that category so far), that Brandon has had a wealth of chances.
Most runners on base for 2013 National League batters:
1) Brandon Phillips - 170
2) Jay Bruce - 159
3) Hunter Pence - 150
4) Yonder Alonso - 145
5) Zack Cozart - 141
This list tells a couple different stories. First off, the Reds' offense has been generating a ton of opportunities. To have 3 of the top 5 in this category is pretty absurd. However, production is much more than opportunity...because as we all know, the three Reds on this list have had very different levels of success when they've batted with runners on.
Among the 125 batters in MLB who have had at least 100 runners on this season, Brandon ranks 13th in percentage of those runners driven in (20%). Bruce rates a respectable 15.72%, good for 57th on the list. Cozart is near the bottom - 109th at only 10.64% of runners driven in. If you haven't considered this particular statistic before, I would summarize it as follows:
< 9% = terrible
9-11% = poor
12-14% = mediocre
15-17% = good
18-20% = excellent
>20% = outstanding
For his career, Phillips has been a good (but usually not great) producer with runners on. Here are the percentages, rounded off to the nearest whole numbers:
2006 - 15%
2007 - 14%
2008 - 15%
2009 - 17%
2010 - 12%
2011 - 16%
2012 - 15%
2013 - 20%
Two years stand out - 2013 for success, and 2010 for lack thereof. The biggest thing that can help you succeed in these situations is extra-base hits. According to Fangraphs numbers, BP's 2010 isolated slugging percentage was only .155 (third-worst of his Reds career), while he's at .189 this season (second-best).
At his current pace, Brandon would accumulate 40 doubles (a career high) and 26 homers (second only to his breakout 2007 season).
Will he sustain this production level? Maybe not. But his improved approach and skill at the plate will certainly give him a good chance. A number of his XBH this season have punctuated lengthy at-bats where he fouled off pitches until he got one to deliver into the gap (or the seats). While his overall pitches seen per plate appearance stat (about 3.7) has not changed this year, he makes the adjustments necessary in big situations, and quite visibly relishes the role of dependable RBI man.
Here's hoping that Brandon keeps it going, because he's on pace for some history. Only Joe Morgan has ever driven in 100 runs in a season as a Reds second baseman, and he did it just once, with 111 in 1976. BP is on pace for 138 RBI - that would be the 5th highest single-season total ever by any second baseman in major league baseball.
Statistics from baseballmusings.com, fangraphs.com, mlb.com and espn.com
Most runners on base for 2013 National League batters:
1) Brandon Phillips - 170
2) Jay Bruce - 159
3) Hunter Pence - 150
4) Yonder Alonso - 145
5) Zack Cozart - 141
This list tells a couple different stories. First off, the Reds' offense has been generating a ton of opportunities. To have 3 of the top 5 in this category is pretty absurd. However, production is much more than opportunity...because as we all know, the three Reds on this list have had very different levels of success when they've batted with runners on.
Among the 125 batters in MLB who have had at least 100 runners on this season, Brandon ranks 13th in percentage of those runners driven in (20%). Bruce rates a respectable 15.72%, good for 57th on the list. Cozart is near the bottom - 109th at only 10.64% of runners driven in. If you haven't considered this particular statistic before, I would summarize it as follows:
< 9% = terrible
9-11% = poor
12-14% = mediocre
15-17% = good
18-20% = excellent
>20% = outstanding
For his career, Phillips has been a good (but usually not great) producer with runners on. Here are the percentages, rounded off to the nearest whole numbers:
2006 - 15%
2007 - 14%
2008 - 15%
2009 - 17%
2010 - 12%
2011 - 16%
2012 - 15%
2013 - 20%
Two years stand out - 2013 for success, and 2010 for lack thereof. The biggest thing that can help you succeed in these situations is extra-base hits. According to Fangraphs numbers, BP's 2010 isolated slugging percentage was only .155 (third-worst of his Reds career), while he's at .189 this season (second-best).
At his current pace, Brandon would accumulate 40 doubles (a career high) and 26 homers (second only to his breakout 2007 season).
Will he sustain this production level? Maybe not. But his improved approach and skill at the plate will certainly give him a good chance. A number of his XBH this season have punctuated lengthy at-bats where he fouled off pitches until he got one to deliver into the gap (or the seats). While his overall pitches seen per plate appearance stat (about 3.7) has not changed this year, he makes the adjustments necessary in big situations, and quite visibly relishes the role of dependable RBI man.
Here's hoping that Brandon keeps it going, because he's on pace for some history. Only Joe Morgan has ever driven in 100 runs in a season as a Reds second baseman, and he did it just once, with 111 in 1976. BP is on pace for 138 RBI - that would be the 5th highest single-season total ever by any second baseman in major league baseball.
Statistics from baseballmusings.com, fangraphs.com, mlb.com and espn.com
Friday, May 24, 2013
The 10 most-played matchups in MLB history
(updated 4/7/15)
1) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs (2439 games).
The Cubs have been around since 1876, and the Pirates since 1882.
Previous cities: Both have always been in the same city.
Previous nicknames: The Cubs were previously known as the White Stockings, the Colts, and the Orphans. The Pirates were previously known as the Alleghenys.
Pittsburgh leads this series 1249 to 1173.
2) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals (2423 games).
Both have been around since 1882.
Previous nicknames: The Pirates were previously known as the Alleghenys. The Cardinals were previously known as the Brown Stockings, Browns, and Perfectos.
Pittsburgh leads this series 1229 to 1170.
3) San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (2411 games).
The Giants have been around since 1883, and the Dodgers since 1884.
Previous cities: The Giants were based in New York, and the Dodgers in Brooklyn.
Previous nicknames: The Giants were once known as the Gothams, and the Dodgers had a ridiculous array of nicknames - Atlantics, Grays, Bridegrooms, Grooms, Superbas, and Robins.
San Francisco leads this series 1210 to 1184.
4) Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (2375 games).
The Braves franchise has existed since 1876, and the Phillies since 1883.
Previous cities: The Braves were in Boston and Milwaukee before moving to Atlanta.
Previous nicknames: The Braves were previously called the Red Stockings, Beaneaters, Doves, Rustlers, and Bees. The Phillies were originally known as the Quakers.
The Braves lead this series 1235 to 1125.
5) Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals (2345 games).
The Cubs have been around since 1876, and the Cardinals since 1882.
Previous cities: Both teams have always been in their respective cities.
Previous nicknames: The Cubs were known as the White Stockings, Colts and Orphans. The Cardinals were originally the Brown Stockings, then the Browns, and then the Perfectos.
The Cubs lead this series 1189 to 1137.
6) San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves (2334 games).
The Braves franchise has existed since 1876, and the Giants since 1883.
Previous cities: The Giants were in New York before moving to San Francisco. The Braves were in Boston and Milwaukee before moving to Atlanta.
Previous nicknames: The Giants were originally called the Gothams. The Braves were known as the Red Stockings, Beaneaters, Doves, Rustlers and Bees.
The Giants lead this series 1231 to 1077.
7) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds (2336 games).
The Reds and Cardinals have both existed since 1882.
Previous cities: Both teams have always been in their respective cities.
Previous nicknames: The Reds have also been the Red Stockings and Redlegs. The Cardinals have been the Brown Stockings, Browns and Perfectos.
The Cardinals lead this series 1206 to 1109.
8) Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies (2334 games).
The Cubs have existed since 1876, and the Phillies since 1883.
Previous cities: Both have always been in the same city.
Previous nicknames: The Cubs were previously known as the White Stockings, Colts and Orphans. The Phillies were originally the Quakers.
The Cubs lead this series 1217 to 1099.
9) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds (2324 games).
The Reds have existed since 1882, and the Dodgers since 1884.
Previous cities: The Reds have always been in Cincinnati, but the Dodgers were originally in Brooklyn.
Previous nicknames: The Reds have also been known as the Red Stockings and Redlegs. The Dodgers have been called the Atlantics, Grays, Bridegrooms, Grooms, Superbas, and Robins.
The Dodgers lead this series 1168 to 1142.
10) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (2289 games).
The Reds and Pirates have both been around since 1882.
Previous cities: Both teams have always been in their respective cities.
Previous nicknames: The Reds have also been the Red Stockings and Redlegs. The Pirates were originally the Alleghenys.
The Pirates lead this series 1145 to 1125.
Because the earliest American League franchises weren't established until the start of the 20th century, none of them appear on this list. The most-played rivalries in the AL:
1) Tigers/Indians (2159 games) - Tigers lead 1097-1050
2) Red Sox/Orioles (2157 games) - Red Sox lead 1172-971
3) White Sox/Twins (2156 games) - White Sox lead 1114-1026
4) Yankees/Orioles (2127 games) - Yankees lead 1259-854
5) Red Sox/Yankees (2118) - Yankees lead 1150-954
Note: As usual, baseball-reference.com was the main source for this post. If you have any questions or corrections, don't hesitate to leave a comment.
1) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs (2439 games).
The Cubs have been around since 1876, and the Pirates since 1882.
Previous cities: Both have always been in the same city.
Previous nicknames: The Cubs were previously known as the White Stockings, the Colts, and the Orphans. The Pirates were previously known as the Alleghenys.
Pittsburgh leads this series 1249 to 1173.
2) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals (2423 games).
Both have been around since 1882.
Previous nicknames: The Pirates were previously known as the Alleghenys. The Cardinals were previously known as the Brown Stockings, Browns, and Perfectos.
Pittsburgh leads this series 1229 to 1170.
3) San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (2411 games).
The Giants have been around since 1883, and the Dodgers since 1884.
Previous cities: The Giants were based in New York, and the Dodgers in Brooklyn.
Previous nicknames: The Giants were once known as the Gothams, and the Dodgers had a ridiculous array of nicknames - Atlantics, Grays, Bridegrooms, Grooms, Superbas, and Robins.
San Francisco leads this series 1210 to 1184.
4) Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (2375 games).
The Braves franchise has existed since 1876, and the Phillies since 1883.
Previous cities: The Braves were in Boston and Milwaukee before moving to Atlanta.
Previous nicknames: The Braves were previously called the Red Stockings, Beaneaters, Doves, Rustlers, and Bees. The Phillies were originally known as the Quakers.
The Braves lead this series 1235 to 1125.
5) Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals (2345 games).
The Cubs have been around since 1876, and the Cardinals since 1882.
Previous cities: Both teams have always been in their respective cities.
Previous nicknames: The Cubs were known as the White Stockings, Colts and Orphans. The Cardinals were originally the Brown Stockings, then the Browns, and then the Perfectos.
The Cubs lead this series 1189 to 1137.
6) San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves (2334 games).
The Braves franchise has existed since 1876, and the Giants since 1883.
Previous cities: The Giants were in New York before moving to San Francisco. The Braves were in Boston and Milwaukee before moving to Atlanta.
Previous nicknames: The Giants were originally called the Gothams. The Braves were known as the Red Stockings, Beaneaters, Doves, Rustlers and Bees.
The Giants lead this series 1231 to 1077.
7) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds (2336 games).
The Reds and Cardinals have both existed since 1882.
Previous cities: Both teams have always been in their respective cities.
Previous nicknames: The Reds have also been the Red Stockings and Redlegs. The Cardinals have been the Brown Stockings, Browns and Perfectos.
The Cardinals lead this series 1206 to 1109.
8) Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies (2334 games).
The Cubs have existed since 1876, and the Phillies since 1883.
Previous cities: Both have always been in the same city.
Previous nicknames: The Cubs were previously known as the White Stockings, Colts and Orphans. The Phillies were originally the Quakers.
The Cubs lead this series 1217 to 1099.
9) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds (2324 games).
The Reds have existed since 1882, and the Dodgers since 1884.
Previous cities: The Reds have always been in Cincinnati, but the Dodgers were originally in Brooklyn.
Previous nicknames: The Reds have also been known as the Red Stockings and Redlegs. The Dodgers have been called the Atlantics, Grays, Bridegrooms, Grooms, Superbas, and Robins.
The Dodgers lead this series 1168 to 1142.
10) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (2289 games).
The Reds and Pirates have both been around since 1882.
Previous cities: Both teams have always been in their respective cities.
Previous nicknames: The Reds have also been the Red Stockings and Redlegs. The Pirates were originally the Alleghenys.
The Pirates lead this series 1145 to 1125.
Because the earliest American League franchises weren't established until the start of the 20th century, none of them appear on this list. The most-played rivalries in the AL:
1) Tigers/Indians (2159 games) - Tigers lead 1097-1050
2) Red Sox/Orioles (2157 games) - Red Sox lead 1172-971
3) White Sox/Twins (2156 games) - White Sox lead 1114-1026
4) Yankees/Orioles (2127 games) - Yankees lead 1259-854
5) Red Sox/Yankees (2118) - Yankees lead 1150-954
Note: As usual, baseball-reference.com was the main source for this post. If you have any questions or corrections, don't hesitate to leave a comment.
Post-Reds WAR (since 2000)
Since 2000, the Cincinnati Reds' best-known "one that got away" is, of course, Josh Hamilton. Many Reds fans still won't shut up about him. And indeed, he has provided the most total value to his teams since, among all players the Reds lost to trade or free agency in that time period. Take a look at the list below. Some of the names might really surprise you.
Notes: Players appearing on this list must have appeared in at least one MLB game for the Reds in the 2000 season or more recently. Totals are based on baseball-reference.com's wins above replacement.
Top WAR (wins above replacement) accumulators after leaving the Reds:
1) Josh Hamilton (21.7)
2) Ryan Dempster (20.4)
3) Cody Ross (12.0)
4) Edwin Encarnacion (9.1)
5) Bruce Chen (8.3)
6) Russell Branyan (8.2)
7) Kyle Lohse (7.7)
8) Chris Denorfia (7.1)
9) Jose Guillen (6.7)
10) Dmitri Young (6.3)
11) David Ross (5.7)
12) Brady Clark (5.3)
13) Matt Belisle (5.1)
14) Jerry Hairston (5.0)
15) Dennys Reyes (4.6)
I think most Reds fans have been surprised by the performance of Encarnacion, Denorfia and others since their departure - heck, even Chris Dickerson and Adam Rosales have performed decently for their teams, although not well enough to make the list.
Needless to say, this list is skewed toward players who left a handful (or more) of seasons ago. Here are three players who, given more time, will probably accumulate some strong numbers:
Travis Wood (2.9 total WAR after leaving the Reds)
Yonder Alonso (1.9)
Didi Gregorius (1.7)
Notice that you didn't see some rather famous players listed? The Reds didn't miss out on much value by letting these guys go:
Sean Casey (-0.2 total WAR after leaving the Reds)
Adam Dunn (-0.7)
Ken Griffey, Jr. (0.2)
Notes: Players appearing on this list must have appeared in at least one MLB game for the Reds in the 2000 season or more recently. Totals are based on baseball-reference.com's wins above replacement.
Top WAR (wins above replacement) accumulators after leaving the Reds:
1) Josh Hamilton (21.7)
2) Ryan Dempster (20.4)
3) Cody Ross (12.0)
4) Edwin Encarnacion (9.1)
5) Bruce Chen (8.3)
6) Russell Branyan (8.2)
7) Kyle Lohse (7.7)
8) Chris Denorfia (7.1)
9) Jose Guillen (6.7)
10) Dmitri Young (6.3)
11) David Ross (5.7)
12) Brady Clark (5.3)
13) Matt Belisle (5.1)
14) Jerry Hairston (5.0)
15) Dennys Reyes (4.6)
I think most Reds fans have been surprised by the performance of Encarnacion, Denorfia and others since their departure - heck, even Chris Dickerson and Adam Rosales have performed decently for their teams, although not well enough to make the list.
Needless to say, this list is skewed toward players who left a handful (or more) of seasons ago. Here are three players who, given more time, will probably accumulate some strong numbers:
Travis Wood (2.9 total WAR after leaving the Reds)
Yonder Alonso (1.9)
Didi Gregorius (1.7)
Notice that you didn't see some rather famous players listed? The Reds didn't miss out on much value by letting these guys go:
Sean Casey (-0.2 total WAR after leaving the Reds)
Adam Dunn (-0.7)
Ken Griffey, Jr. (0.2)
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Choo changing the entire Reds offense
In 2012, the Cincinnati Reds offense struggled in one very major way. Only Votto (.474), Hanigan (.365) and Ludwick (.346) got on base consistently. Here were their OBP ranks by position in MLB:
C - .333 (10th)
1B - .423 (1st)
2B - .306 (22nd)
3B - .304 (23rd)
SS - .284 (25th)
LF - .339 (10th)
CF - .282 (30th)
RF - .320 (21st)
Note: Reds pitchers were also above average with a .176 OBP (9th in MLB) but the 9th spot in the order isn't something you rely on for production on a game-to-game basis.
And here are their rankings through 40 games in 2013:
C - .290 (21st)
1B - .455 (1st) - leading all other teams by 37 points
2B - .333 (11th)
3B - .314 (19th)
SS - .250 (28th)
LF - .302 (21st)
CF - .468 (1st) - leading all other teams by 73 points
RF - .303 (19th)
As you can see, the only huge change was in CF. Votto's OBP is actually lower this year than last, but the team number for first base has improved as a result of him having 100% of the playing time so far this year.
Choo is almost single-handedly responsible for the team OBP jumping from an abysmal .315 last year (22nd in the league) to .335 in 2013, which now ranks third in baseball. Even with Cozart's weak bat behind him, Choo is tied for the MLB lead in runs scored (33). Just imagine the numbers he might be putting up with Ludwick healthy and BP back in the 2-hole...
C - .333 (10th)
1B - .423 (1st)
2B - .306 (22nd)
3B - .304 (23rd)
SS - .284 (25th)
LF - .339 (10th)
CF - .282 (30th)
RF - .320 (21st)
Note: Reds pitchers were also above average with a .176 OBP (9th in MLB) but the 9th spot in the order isn't something you rely on for production on a game-to-game basis.
And here are their rankings through 40 games in 2013:
C - .290 (21st)
1B - .455 (1st) - leading all other teams by 37 points
2B - .333 (11th)
3B - .314 (19th)
SS - .250 (28th)
LF - .302 (21st)
CF - .468 (1st) - leading all other teams by 73 points
RF - .303 (19th)
As you can see, the only huge change was in CF. Votto's OBP is actually lower this year than last, but the team number for first base has improved as a result of him having 100% of the playing time so far this year.
Choo is almost single-handedly responsible for the team OBP jumping from an abysmal .315 last year (22nd in the league) to .335 in 2013, which now ranks third in baseball. Even with Cozart's weak bat behind him, Choo is tied for the MLB lead in runs scored (33). Just imagine the numbers he might be putting up with Ludwick healthy and BP back in the 2-hole...
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